Trading Jacob deGrom Would Be Foolish
The Mets started out hot in 2018, needing just 12 games to record 11 wins. It would take the club another 30 games to get their next 11 wins, however. Even then, at 22-19, the team’s prospects for contending seemed decent. Twenty-one games and just six wins later, a once-promising season looks much less so. The graph below shows the team’s playoff odds since the start of the season.
Even heading into May, the playoffs looked like a 50/50 proposition. A week later, it was one-in-four, and now the Mets’ odds of making the playoffs are basically 1-in-10. In what figures to be a very competitive National League playoff race, the Mets’ record is better than only the Marlins’ and Reds’. To make the playoffs, they will have to pass eight teams. Unless the club turns things around quickly, they might find themselves as sellers in a month. The question, though — if indeed the Mets do becomes sellers — is “Who precisely do they sell?” The two best players on the team are ace-level starting pitchers controlled beyond this season in Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Buster Olney recently argued the team should at least gauge their trade value.
So deGrom is everything that the New York Mets really need right now, in their worst of times, in his dominance and his leadership. But given the current challenges of the organization — the gray-beard age at the major league level, the lack of depth at the top of their farm system — they owe it to themselves to welcome offers from other clubs for deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, to at least understand what’s possible.
If the Mets were to start a rebuilding process, deGrom and Syndergaard would be the first to go. With deGrom in arbitration through 2020 and Syndergaard controlled through 2021, the duo would fetch a huge prospect haul. For sake of comparison, after the 2016 season, the White Sox traded Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Basabe, and Victor Diaz, and then traded Jose Quintana last year for Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose, and Bryant Flete. If the Mets were to trade both deGrom and Syndergaard, they would probably come pretty close to that kind of haul.
Since the start of the 2015 season, only Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Sale, and Clayton Kershaw have put up more than deGrom’s 16 wins above replacement. His 7.5 WAR since the beginning of last season trails only Scherzer’s own mark in the National League, and his 2.08 FIP and 1.57 ERA this year are both indicative of elite run-prevention. Syndergaard’s value is complicated by his current finger issue, as well as his abbreviated 2017 season; when healthy, though, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. While the Mets should certainly listen on offers for anyone on their team, given their present and future situation, dealing either one would likely be a big mistake.
The Mets’ farm system isn’t great, and it could certainly use a fresh infusion of talent, but that alone isn’t a proper justification for starting a rebuilding process. A look at the talent presently on the major-league roster and the team’s payroll situation in future seasons means that even if the team falls out the race this year — and they haven’t done that yet — the team should be focusing on 2019 and 2020 because there is a very good chance of contending then.
First, let’s take a look at the position players whom the Mets have on hand. I prorated the individual Depth Chart Projections to 600 plate appearances and added in an aging component to provide some rough estimates for the talent level the Mets will have next season.
| Name | Position | Estimated 2019 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Conforto | CF | 3.2 |
| Todd Frazier | 3B | 2.0 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | LF | 2.0 |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 1.8 |
| Kevin Plawecki | C | 1.7 |
| Amed Rosario | SS | 1.1 |
| Wilmer Flores | 2B | 1.5 |
| Dominic Smith | 1B | 0.5 |
| Jay Bruce | OF | 0.3 |
| TOTAL | 14.1 |
The picture here doesn’t look great, as these numbers represent a four-win drop from the Mets’ preseason projections, but the figures I’ve used are also pretty conservative. Michael Conforto was projected for four wins at the beginning of the season. If Brandon Nimmo is even halfway decent the rest of the way after finding his power this season, his projection is probably going to be a win higher. Amed Rosario is just 22 years old and likely going to get better with more experience. If Dominic Smith is still projected to be a half-win player at the end of this season, the club could turn to prospect Peter Alonso, who is mashing in Double-A and appeared in the most recent edition of FanGraphs’ top-prospect rankings. These aren’t ironclad, of course, and Travis d’Arnaud could be back at catcher as well, but there’s a pretty good base of talent here. Outside of Bruce, Cespedes, and Frazier, it is also a pretty young group.
On the pitching side, the rotation looks to be in good shape.
| Name | 2019 Projected WAR |
|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 4.7 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 5.7 |
| Jason Vargas | 1.4 |
| Steven Matz | 2.5 |
| Zack Wheeler | 2.5 |
| TOTAL | 16.8 |
A lot will change before next season, but Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman will likely be around, as well, in the event that other pitchers falter. If we take the projections from above and add three wins from the bullpen, that’s a .500 team. There’s rarely a reason to dismantle a .500 team that also has a fair amount of youth. In the Mets’ case, there is almost no justification for it. This year’s team is running a payroll around $150 million, just like they did back in 2009. The Mets probably should be running a higher payroll given their market and revenue, but even if we assume the Mets can only spend $150 million again next year, they will have a ton of payroll room to get better.
Right now, the Mets have around $92 committed to payroll next season, and even adding another $30 million or so for arbitration raises, the team would still have $30 million to spend in free agency. At a minimum, the Mets should be able to go out and buy about three more wins without increasing payroll from where it is right now. Doing the minimum makes the Mets a playoff-level team heading into 2019. With nearly all of the team also under contract for 2020 and even fewer salary commitments then, a rebuild should be out of the question for the Mets. There’s always going to be a risk that deGrom or Syndergaard could get hurt or decline, but eliminating potential contending seasons in the hope of a rebuild for multiple years down the road provides more risks when it comes to fielding a winning team. The Mets can listen on deGrom and Syndergaard, but unless a trade is going to make them better in 2019 — which is nearly impossible — the club is better off trying to win with their aces.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Seriously, though, what happened in May and June? I’ve never seen a team flip the switch so completely from winning every day to losing every day.
Baseball. Baseball happened.
Ummm, sure baseball happened. But not with the Mets, they have done some historically bad hitting. 11 runs in 15 games to start. I can’t go into the rest, too painful.
Super small sample sizes happened.
Robust support for the null hypothesis is always appreciated! But I think there were probably some other factors involved too.
Cespedes got hurt, both of their catchers got hurt, and Conforto started sucking.
Not common, but it happens. The Mets are the 4th team since 2000 to win 10+ of their first 12 and then be under .500 after 62 games
2018 Mets 11-1 followed by 17-33
2009 Marlins 11-1 followed by 18-32
2002 Indians 11-1 followed by 19-31
2011 Rockies 10-2 followed by 20-30
… and that is four of only 14 total to win 10+ of their first dozen games, so ~30% of the time such a start crashes and burns in May/June.
I didn’t record them, but I think there were two more that were 31-31; that would be 43% of all of those teams! Take-away, SSS is unreliable…
I think losing both catchers on the same weekend was a blow to the psyche, especially losing your #1 for the year.
Have to also think that the team wasn’t too happy with the way Harvey was treated.
Add in losing Ces, Thor & Frazier and it’s not that hard to comprehend.
Yes, deeper teams deal with injuries – this isn’t that team
lolmets happened
Just last year the Dodgers had a celebrated 40-6 period where it appeared to be one of the greatest teams in history as well as a 1-16 slump shortly thereafter.
Last year’s Dodgers went 12-12 in their first 24 games .. they went 1-16 in the 17 game stretch in august and September.
In the remaining 121 games, they went 91-30.
They aren’t even the only team to do so this year.
WHy was LHPSU’s post thumbs-downed by anyone? The Dbacks had essentially a parallel swoon to the Mets in May, and in fact, that team was SWEPT by the Mets while the Mets were in the middle of this swoon. For example.
See: Dodgers, August 2017, vs the rest of 2017. See: Diamondbacks, May 2018 vs April 2018 and June 2018, need I go on…
Like any other possible trade scenario, you can’t say Yes or No until you see what’s being proposed.
I think the argument for tearing down even if they project for .500 comes down to there are likely three teams that project better than them in their division, all of whom have better prospects and financial flexibility compared to Mets.
That might be true for Phils and Braves but is likely less so for Nats, especially financially.
It’s tough to watch a team with so much potential kind of flush a lot of it down the drain because ownership is so unwilling to spend any money relative to their New York market…
You could basically have just changed a few words and republished this article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-shouldnt-blow-this-opportunity/
It’s amazing how the Mets are in almost exactly the same spot as they were last year. They have too many corner outfielders, some incredible starting pitchers, some serious question marks in the infield, and for some reason they still have Jose Reyes. Pretty much everything that they should have done last offseason, they should still do next offseason (except 3rd base, which they have temporarily solved).
Rooting for the Mets must be like running on a hamster wheel.
God that article’s depressing and it’s not even 6 months old.
“God that article’s depressing and it’s not even 6 months old.”
Some things never change. Like the LOLMets.
Well at least they’ve won a championship when at least some of the readers of this site have been alive. That’s better than nothing. With 30 teams in the league, having won one in the last 31 seasons (plus two other WS appearances) is probably close to “expected value”, and yes, I am aware they are in a large market and should probably exceed that. But so are the Dodgers, and since the mid-80s have roughly the same World Series results as the Mets.
100% accurate. The only thing I would add is that they once again have an incredible amount of talent on the DL. So far this year: Thor, Cespedes, Conforto, Familia, Frazier, D’Arnaud, Plawecki, Flores, deGrom, Swarzak, Ramos, Lagares, Robles, Vargas…oh, and let’s not forget David Wright. And now Cabrera is going to play through a tight hamstring, which, well, the Mets should know by now how that goes.
Every team deals with injuries but the Mets are on a whole ‘nother level.
When fully healthy, I think they can trot out a lineup that has an above-average wRC+ at every position except SS and C. The question is…when are they ever fully healthy?
The Mets have certainly been hit hard by injury, but it’s not a whole ‘nother level. Nats have had the most time lost to the DL, and it’s been our frontline guys as well (Eaton, Murphy, Rendon, Madson, Zimmerman, now Strasburg and Kintzler). And just like you pointed out, we’ve been watching and waiting for our “full lineup.” The difference has been the depth
You can pretty much use the same Playoff Odds graph for the last few years for the Mets… all except for 2015 are pretty much the same shape.
The two pitchers are world class but let’s be honest – the rest of the team is not good enough to win now. They also don’t have a system that is likely to churn out valuable players in the near future, nor is ownership willing to spend the money on players that are true difference-makers. With the resources they have now, this team is going to be swimming in a sea of mediocrity for another half-decade. May as well blow the thing up and start from scratch.
It’s also at the point where it makes no sense to assume YC will ever be healthy and Conforto will recover after suffering a way more devastating injury than has been reported and looking awful since. And i was actually bullish on Mets before the season but without those two in the lineup and doing damage, this is a terrible team.
I remember after ’08 thinking the Mets should blow up the team and rebuild. Instead they signed the Jason Bays and K-Rods of the world, refused to invest in the draft or international market (this was in the days before hard caps after all), and basically refused to admit they were rebuilding until, oh, 2012 or so? Then the team they half heartedly built was only good enough to sustain for about a season and a half, all while making some of the same long term mistakes (cough Cuddyer cough) that have stunted their ability to sustain their window. And now they seem determined to redo that exact course of action. I’d rather a fully committed rebuild now.
90’s: Jeromy Burnitz
00’s: Jason Bay
10’s: Jay Bruce
Trading him would be foolish, as they could go into this offseason and add some nice pieces, but the issue is, do you expect or trust that current ownership/GM combo to make those moves to get the team over the hump? They tried this offseason with Frazier, Bruce and Vargas and it hasnt worked out yet, if they sign the same type of players again will it work the next time? The fear is that deGrom leaves as a free agent for nothing. The farm system is not very good, so you would be relying on free agents who are usually at the end of or past their primes, unless you expect the Mets to get one of the big guns this offseason, which I don’t, so relying on those types of players to get you into the postseason isn’t too wise, in my opinion
Imagine the shock and outrage that would occur if the Mets signed Machado.
Then imagine Machado chasing down a foul ball into a dugout in April, damaging his knee, ending his career or at least not being close to the same player again, and then having to pay him for 10 more seasons, or maybe re-negotiating the deal to stretch it out over 30 years at a hefty interest rate.
Your conclusions make sense for a reasonable team, but this team is run by Fred and Jeff Wilpon, and the last word you could possibly use to describe those men is “reasonable.” Trade deGrom or keep him, it’s basically just shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. Until the organization is run with foresight and creativity, until the team prioritizes player development, until they are proactive about injury management, until they hold everybody in the organization accountable (yes, including Jeff), there will be no long term success for the team. So in lieu of all that, selling off and reloading for a ’15-style flash in the pan run once a decade is probably the best hope to win a world series. Or MLB can do what it should have a decade ago, and force the Wilpons to sell the team to people who want to succeed.
“until they hold everybody in the organization accountable (yes, including Jeff)“
ESPECIALLY Jeff.
If they aren’t going to spend then it isn’t foolish though. They have to go for it in order for it to be worth keeping DeGrom, etc. They are 4th in the division moving forward.
Can anybody predict what the Mets FO will do, at any given moment, in any year?
Finding a mathematical model for that would almost certainly win you the Fields Prize.
I can predict with great confidence that they will do something cheap and/or bone-headed.
“I can predict with great confidence that they will do something cheap and/or bone-headed.”
Nailed it.
“Can anybody predict what the Mets FO will do, at any given moment, in any year?”
1. Identify the worst possible choice.
2. Done.
Then repeat (1) and (2) above
that’s what they said about Hershel Walker. i’d love a blockbuster trade.
The problem is the timing. Do you really think this team will be good enough to beat both the Braves and Phillies, whose windows are just opening? And that’s assuming the Nats’ window more or less closes. Of course, the wild card is an option, and there’s few pitchers you’d want on the mound for a one-game play-in than Syndergaard… if he’s healthy.
I don’t know the answer here, but my question is: what if not everything goes well? What if their bullpen, currently 26th in WAR at 0.4, continues to sink them? What if deGrom and Syndergaard can’t stay healthy enough? What if the position players are hurt, or don’t develop as expected, etc.? Where will the Mets if after 2020 they’ve not gotten anywhere?
And what if they guys they trade for are as good as the guys they got for Seaver? Then again, they could be as good as the ones they got for RA Dickey.
If they traded Degrom its not like they’re in complete tear down mode. They still have an ace in Syndergaard. If they get a 4 player package from the Yankees or Brewers, who have most of their talent in the upper minors, I could argue they’re a better roster. It made the Pirates better this year. There’s too many holes in the current roster and the Mets aren’t going to go out and actually buy wins like you mentioned. They didnt do it this past offseason for example. Instead, they look for below market contracts for non-mpactful guys and minimum contracts to fill roster spots with.
Also if you factor in the seller’s market this summer, they can set their price and wait for someone to pay up. Plenty of teams are looking for an ace, some in a playoff push. There’s no other pitcher out there that is available on Degrom’s level
The Pirates are better off with Musgrove, Moran and Feliz than they are with a Searage-trained Cole, but they would have been best off by adjusting their pitching instruction to fit Cole’s strengths instead of stubbornly trying to apply the same formula to all of their pitchers and trading an unrealized ace for three average players.
Let’s face it, these are the sad and pathetic LOLMets: whatever it is that they decide to do will turn out to be the wrong decision.
The people of New York deserve far better ownership than the clearly jinxed Wilpons: perhaps Kim Jong Un will buy them. Or Randy Quaid. Hell, at this point even Jeffrey Loria looks like a serious upgrade.
They still have 3 Madoff payments left 2018, 2019, 2020) of more than $10m each, so that’s part of it: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/sports/baseball/ny-mets-bernie-madoff-settlement-wilpon-katz.html
Even taking that into account, though, they are being unnecessarily stingy.
I’m a huge fan of deGrom but I think strategically turning him into a few top prospects is the smarter move. Almost all those who comment make the assumption that deGrom will remain healthy and super productive for the next few years. One thing we Mets fans know is to never assume health of our players.
I would not expect the Mets to trade with the Yankees but a package headed by Clint Frazier and a few more from their top-10 could go a long way towards improving the overall talent level of the Amazins.
This article neglects to mention that proceeding the course would entail a team in a giant market taking their shot year after year while having the 4th best future outlook in their division. And the fact that Degrom and Syndergaard are about to get very expensive. Trading one or both of these guys would allow them the potential to spend Degrom and Syndergaard’s payroll hit elsewhere in a huge free agent market while also receiving a Hershel Walker type of haul in prospect value.
No it wouldn’t, as a Mets fan I would love to see great talent infused in the system. I am hoping maybe they can get a Ronald Acuna Jr type, if they trade deGrom….shoot for moon and get less. They need to blow this awful team up.