Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings. How was everyone’s Week 1?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

Seven Costanza: Joey Votto is currently running a 93.8% zSwing, while also running an overall contact rate of 95.4%. (Both way higher tha his career norms). For a player of his characteristics, have we ever seen a guy go from super passive to super aggressive? If so, it seems to me like this might be a worse version of Votto. Your thoughts, good sir?

Travis Sawchik: This disclaimer will apply to everything we chat about today and this month: it’s early …. But we still need to talk about stuff. And there are still interesting things going on. And this may be one of them! Maybe Votto has a trick up his sleeve. It would see to be an unusual trend.

Eric: Any thoughts on the Matz situation? He says he’s hurt, doctors say he’s fine. To what extent is part of being a big-league pitcher dealing with some level of constant arm discomfort? And isn’t this a dangerous ideology to tell someone discomfort is natural?

Travis Sawchik: You often hear pitchers say they have to learn to deal with a certain level of discomfort, but, yeah, it’s probably dangerous to tell pitcher to go ahead pitch through that stabbing sensation in their elbow. Matz has had injuries. He should know his body better than anyone. I think you have to listen to and trust the player at this point

Zach: Should I be worried about Gerrit Cole’s long term viability as a top of the rotation guy?

Travis Sawchik: There are some concerns: lack of a changeup, perhaps a fastball that is relatively flat at times, 5 DL trips in three years ….

Travis Sawchik: He also seems to let things bother him at times (like the busted shift on opening day)… But he still has premium velocity and a desire to be great. We’ll see

Matt: Manaea’s first two starts I don’t think were as bad as the numbers look. Alex Cobb’s first start was great, but…NYY and BOS this week. Do I run with single-start Manaea in the vast O-Co, or go with two-start Cobb against Yanks and Sox?

Travis Sawchik: And those starts are at Boston and at New York. I think we need to pay more attention, as fantasy players, to where pitchers are pitching. Home/road splits are pretty significant. I’d go with Manaea

Borkins: BYRON. BUXTON. WHAT SAY YOU?!?

Travis Sawchik: It was a rough week, for sure. 14Ks in 27PAs. Looked lost against breaking stuff

Travis Sawchik: Again, it’s early. But this is a continuation of troubling trends tied to pitch recognition and contact …

Erik: The Twins, Reds, and Diamondbacks all lead their divisions. Which of those do you at least sort of believe?

Travis Sawchik: Diamondbacks. They are the most talented and were something of a sleeper team entering the year. There’s talent and pedigree in the pitching staff, the outfield is healthy and the overall D should be better.

Kyle: What do you see the Cubs doing with Ian Happ in the future? He’s doing well but seems blocked right now

Travis Sawchik: It’s a nice problem to have. It will be interesting to see if he’s viewed as part of the core or an asset to trade …. I don’t think the Cubs have many guys that seem like obvious non-tenders entering their Arb years … so there’s a log-jam

Abner Doubleday: You wrote about the changing culture in the clubhouse for the yankees…. Do you think it has anything to do with the idea that a strict, business-like environment will deter future FA? Specifically, I’d think it may have some impact on potentially signing Bryce Harper. “Make Baseball Fun Again” doesn’t seem to matchup well with the Yankees’ culture.

Travis Sawchik: Perhaps? Wouldn’t we all rather work in a ‘fun’ environment? I think we’ve seen corporate cultures change in the work-place in other industries, too, like Silicon Valley. Relaxed is in.

Guest: 7 games in, Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t hit a fly ball yet. Is this good, because he led baseball by A LOT in infield flyballs last year, or bad, because he has decent power and a low career BABIP?

Travis Sawchik: I’d prefer to see fly balls

Borkins: Will the Mets just give Conforto a full time gig already? Dude is easily their best hitter and they instead make him ride pine in his prime and platoon him.

Travis Sawchik: I’m with you. He’s certainly one of their better hitters. He crushed that ball last night with an effortless looking swing. I want him in the lineup everyday

grimoren189: Is this the Steven Souza the Rays passed on Trea Turner and Joe Ross for? How real is this? Blue Jays announcers said they saw noticeable differences in his approach.

Travis Sawchik: All I know is he has had 30 awesome plate appearances and the Rays still probably grimace collectively when thinking about that deal. There are tools there, though. Maybe it’s something. It’s another development to bookmark

Casual Fan: I consider myself a patient fantasy owner. I know it’s a marathon and not a sprint. I don’t intend to drop him now, and I’ll give him 3 more starts on my bench, but do you think Matt Shoemaker is going to be anything more than a streaming option in a 12 team league?

Travis Sawchik: I have a few shares of Shoemaker, too. I bought into the second half and the splitter usage. Let’s stick it out together a little longer. He could still be the Rich Hill of splitters

Rickey: Hamilton/Peraza or Margot/Jankowski. Who’s the better stolen base combo?

Travis Sawchik: The Reds’ duo … but Margot is the best player. He seems to have some Starling Marte to him. That’s fun. Boston’s system was so loaded before those trades. …

Zonk: Is the Knuckleball dying? As far as I can tell, Dickey and Wright are the only primary knuckle guys left, majors or minors.

Travis Sawchik: It hasn’t been a common pitch, at last in the modern era. But a good one is still great. If I’m an exec I’d be looking at setting up a knuckle-ball camp and trying to teach the pitch

Borkins: BOLD PERDICTION: Dylan Bundy gets AL Cy Young votes this year.

Travis Sawchik: Wouldn’t be a shock. He looked great. Glad to see the cutter/slider is back.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: After a week of games and 30 PAs, Steven Souza Jr. has a .417 average, 6 walks, and 2 strikeouts, good for a 253 wRC+. Is he doing something different? Might he move forward from the 34% K rate 1.5 WAR guy of yesteryear?

Travis Sawchik: He should have a sit down with Buxton

Aaron: What would it take, and would there be any benefit if your best 1 inning guys pitched the first inning when you know you’ll see the top of the order. Then let your “starters” come in.

Travis Sawchik: I like the thought process. MLB is a long ways away from trying it, I suspect. However, I think some teams (like the Pirates) have missed an opportunity to try this in wild-card game settings

Austin Hedges: 0-for-18. Am I overmatched or in a badly-timed slump?

Travis Sawchik: If this happened in June no one notices …. or fewer do … He might have learned how to hit last year in Triple-A so let’s give it some more time. He’s got Coors this week

Jim: I’m a blue jays fan suffering from a pretty serious case of early season anxiety. Should I really be worried?

Travis Sawchik: A little bit … and even more so after this season

steve malkmus: miguel sano – time for him to come to life? How real is a 2017 season where he hits 40, 100r/100rbi, bats .265, OPS 1.000, and strikes out <200 times?

Travis Sawchik: Sano was impressive in the first week. Had good at bats and the contact was very loud. He’ll always strike out but I think he can post that line. It’s like his 85th percentile

Sonny: Happy Glasnow Day!!!

Travis Sawchik: Is there a bigger wild card in the game?

John: Say you’re taking batting practice and the coach is lobbing baseballs down the middle of the plate at 55 – 60 MPH. Do you believe that you have the physical strength to hit one of them over the fence in a major league stadium?

Travis Sawchik: No. Well, maybe Fenway down the LF line to my pull side

someone: If not the Phillies, Yankees, or Nationals, where would you like to see Bryce Harper sign?

Travis Sawchik: Dodgers or Angels or Rangers …. Spin the wheel of large-market mystery teams

GERB: What are good early stats to look at to get an idea of how much to believe in a teams record? I was looking at team BABIP to try and guess teams might have over/under preformed in week 1

Travis Sawchik: That’s not a bad place to start

Andrew: Remarks on Shoemaker. I wouldn’t worry about the last start his splitter just wasn’t breaking like normal, he had 7 0-2 counts and would have like 10 strike outs at least if it was working like he wanted, which it will later in the year. BTW did you catch the Angels game yesterday? It was epic and as an Angels fan I still feel the excitement this morning/Afternoon.

Travis Sawchik: (Witness account for those Shoemaker owners in need of a pick-me-up)

Evil Goatee Ken Tremendous: But you’d *like* to see Harper on the Nippon Ham Fighters, right?

Travis Sawchik: How about Otani (when he’s not pitching) and Harper in the same lineup in New York?

Pikup Androppov: Do you buy what you’ve seen from Ryan Zimmerman so far?

Travis Sawchik: He’s another guy buying into the fly-ball revolution. Apparently he’s been working with Daniel Murphy, the Johnny Appleseed of fly-ball approach

Who_Is_Zorbist?: It looks like De Leon will be Alex Cobb’s successor. Cobb is a FA at year’s end, and the Rays don’t let pitchers get to FA. Obviously he will be traded. Is there a scenario where half a season of him can net the Rays a top 100 prospect? He’s never been an “ace”, but he was pretty darn close.

Travis Sawchik: If Cobb is pre-TJ Cobb he would net something … That was a very good arm

#BantheWave: Daniel Murphy is the originator of the new fly-ball approach? I just read another article about Puig that said Justin Turner was. Which is it?

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t say he was the originator just that he was the Appleseed in moving from team to team and spreading the word. (I think Marlon Byrd might have begun this whole thing back in 2013 … or Ted Williams and Babe Ruth before him)

BASEBALL!: Is Margot a must own in 12 team?

Travis Sawchik: He should be on a bench, at least

Dane: Could this be the year George Springer puts it all together? Fantasy community was relatively down on him pre-season, but in that lineup, he could put up 120-35-85 with an OBP of over .350, which would be amazing.

Travis Sawchik: He’s looked great and we hadn’t seen his best entering 2017. He has his K-rate is a very manageable place

Steve: How concerning is Arrieta’s velocity drop?

Travis Sawchik: It’s certainly not a good thing but so far he’s been just fine

A guy: Is there a cool internet phrase (like Poe’s Law or Godwin) for taking a good concept and misapplying it?
It seems like 5 years ago every who said “SSS” was making a valid point. Now it seems like 80% of the people who say “SSS” are saying it whether it meaningfully applies or not.

Travis Sawchik: Anyone?

Jim: What do you make of McCutchen’s start? He’s 0 for everything except Friday. He looks a lot like the player that struggled last year and so far away from the perennial MVP contender.

Travis Sawchik: I

Travis Sawchik: I’m a little concerned. We’ve never seen a superstar have an Age 29 decline like that and there was apparently no injury-related reason

Travis Sawchik: And there hasn’t been a ton of evidence this spring that he’s in a great place

Travis Sawchik: And if the Pirates thought there was a good chance of a great bounce-back, he’s probably not available this winter, right?

Erik: Why is the fly-ball revolution only happening now? It shouldn’t have taken StatCast for people to realize that homers are better than singles.

Travis Sawchik: People are often trapped by dogma and tradition, and tradition is hard to break from … Thankfully we now have Statcast

Erik: After a week of games, which of the projected division favorites seem shaky? Any chance we’ll get a division race after all?

Travis Sawchik: I suspect we will see a division race somewhere. It’s a tough game to predict as we know. I’m not too concerned about LAD, CHC, CLE, HOU, WAS … but Price’s status is worth watching in Boston. Toronto has some concerns as a playoff team from last year. That’s an older positional player group

Q-Ball: Small Sample Size be damned, what players have stood out to you so far, positive or negative?

Travis Sawchik: Sano (good), Buxton (bad), Springer (good), Lindor with power? (Exit velo is up … very goo), Bundy with a cutter (good)

Erik: Byron Buxton has already cost his team 0.4 wins. (Yet they’re somehow 5-1!) How much longer can he keep up these struggles before he gets sent down again? Does he still count as being rushed to the big leagues at this point?

Travis Sawchik: It seems like Buxton has been jerked around a little bit in development. He’s also making swing changes. But I’m not sure how much that explains his K issues

Something to root for?: Which of the following Reds players who probably won’t be there when the rebuld is compete might have decent value at trade deadline with a good first half performance – Cingrani, Feldman, Storen, Wood, Turner, Barnhart, Gennett, Suarez, Kivlehan, Schebler.

Travis Sawchik: I’d be curious to see what Cingrain could do if he develops a second pitch … not sure there’s a ton of great returns to be had there

trigger finger: at what point in the season do you think stats have more or less settled and these players are who they are? I’m debating dropping aaron judge for a hotter bat, but I am not sure if he will rebound or not.

Travis Sawchik: Judge hasn’t been having terrible at bats, and he was better this spring in regard to contact, so it’s wise to be patient

Minty: While he hasn’t been great overall this first week, is this the year Gallo finally gets a chance to stay up at 1B or LF?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s let Gallo be something between Adam Dunn and Russell Branyan for a full season

jon: Jason Heyward, back from the dead.

Travis Sawchik: Maybe!

Q-Ball: Heyward scalded 5 balls yesterday, all 100 mph or over, with 3 hits robbed by Brewers. He has struck out only once in first 23 PAs. Think he’s fixed?

Travis Sawchik: Another early-season thing to follow

Moltar: Are you as confused as I am about the Dodgers and Urias? Why is he starting in AAA if they’re so concerned about saving his arm? If they wanted to conserve innings, why not have him not throw in spring training at all and just ramp up in extended spring? otherwise might as well get what they can from him in the majors while they can.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I don’t understand why teams worried about innings have the said arm on the same timetable as other arms. Why not start him in May? Same thing with Strasburg and the infamous innings limit back in 2012… Sept/Oct availability is more important than April

Hakeem: Would you drop Jose Reyes to simply hold on to, and stash Conforto with the hopes of Conforto FINALLY getting proper PT – even if it means waiting a month or two?

Travis Sawchik: Yes. Skills over role/current PT

Paul: Andruw Jones put up 60.9 fWAR through his age-29 season. He would go on to put up 6.2 more.

Travis Sawchik: That’s an Aging cliff not a curve. Is McCutchen similar?

LegalEagle: Would the Dodgers even realistically be involved in Otani or Harper given their price tag? Wouldn’t seem like something the front office would do.

Travis Sawchik: Oh I think so. It’s about spending on what a player will do not what he’s done. And these will be free agents in their early-to-mid 20s not 30-somethings …. Dodgers will have plenty to spend

Lars: Was it ever announced which team August Fagerstrom went to work for?

Travis Sawchik: Nope. And I can’t tell you

Reginald Denton III: Is Mark Reynolds worth a roll of the dice while Desmond is injured? I have Hosmer and J. Bell as options at 1B and wouldn’t mind a boost there.

Travis Sawchik: When he’s playing at home, sure

Josiah: Urias isn’t at AAA. He’s at extended spring training.

Travis Sawchik: I guess I need to check on this

Snuds: Which side of this trade do you like Lindor/Puig or Segura, Gomez & Price?

Travis Sawchik: The side Lindor is on every time … And Puig has some upside now that he’s trying to elevate the ball more often

Connie Mac N’ Cheese: How worried should the Nationals be about Turner’s injury?

Travis Sawchik: It’s wait-and-see at this point

GERB: Thoughts on what we’ve seen of Brantley so far? I’m a little concerned

Travis Sawchik: Michael? He’s had some nice swings and he’s hit 100 mph exit velo.

Babe Lincoln: Re the increase in 3 true outcomes: we may eventually need to start reducing how much we (quantitatively) value defense, right?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, if the trends continue, sure. Fewer balls in play make defenders less valuable. Maybe the Orioles are just ahead of everyone on this

Terry’s Sarape: Steve Carlton in 1980 was the last 300 inning pitcher – will we ever see another one? Will 200 innings be hard to reach as well?

Travis Sawchik: Ever is a long time. It seems impossible to think of right now

Murdoc: Did you see the 60 Minutes feature on Otani? If so, what were your takeaways?

Travis Sawchik: I haven’t. I DVR’d 60 minutes and I think the Masters ran long … I will try to find it

JKD: Regarding BABIP: I am a Nats fan and, obviously, worried a little bit about the bullpen. They’ve allowed a .371 BABIP so far. So, yeah, it’s a thing to look at.

Travis Sawchik: That can’t continue all season, right?

Darren: Do teams value “WINS” differently than as us fans now when it comes to figuring out the value of the player? For example, an extra WIN from player A on a contending team is worth more than an extra WIN on a bottom feeder.

Travis Sawchik: I’m sure each team has a slightly different methodology, but a team on the brink of a projected playoff berth is going to value those extra wins more

mtsw: Given new international spending limits, will we potenitally see NPB be competitive for elite young Latin players? $5M is only a little more than what the top Japanese players make.

Travis Sawchik: Interesting thought. Maybe?

Andy: 5 (!) unintentional walks for Matt Holiday yesterday. (God bless OBP leagues). Is it that hot of a take to think Holliday actually ends up with better numbers than everyone’s favorite shiny new toy, Greg Bird?

Travis Sawchik: Absolutely. Holliday has a long track record of success and his underlying skills have remained intact …and now he’s hitting in the AL East. Holliday could be a great value pick

Tony: Thoughts on Shoemaker? Rough stats all the way around, but Velo, F-Strike, SwStr, Movement all look the same… also, he’s been hurt by a catcher’s inference, a balk (to score a run), and 2 poorly timed HBP.

Travis Sawchik: yeah, let’s wait on the Shoemaker panic button

JVizzle: Name 2 mid-tier closers you are high on that aren’t considered elite….yet. Name 2 you are scared to death of.

Travis Sawchik: I love Treinen’s stuff despite the shaky first week results. Jeanmar Gomez is always scary

Aaron: Pitch sequencing can make certain pitches play up right? What about pitcher sequencing? Does a pitch like devenskis change look better because batters have already seen someone else pitch?

Travis Sawchik: This is worth investigating. I do love how the Astros are employing him.

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to go write for you …. I will be back next week!

Travis Sawchik: Don’t be sad it’s over, be glad it happened