Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

Travis Sawchik: Let’s talk …

The Average Sports Fan: When Cespedes comes back, how do you think the Mets OF situation plays out?

Travis Sawchik: If it were up to me, it would include every day reps from Conforto with him often playing CF

Charlie Morton: So I’m good now?

Travis Sawchik: Morton earned the nickname “Electric Stuff” in Pittsburgh — when his stuff was good — and his stuff was never more electric than it was last night. Morton touched 99 mph, painted 98 on the corners. Great curve. Yeah, he still needs to figure out LHHs, but his stuff has taken a big leap forward. I suppose it actually did last year in Philly before he was hurt

Terry’s Sarape: Most pleasant surprises as of May 15?

Travis Sawchik: The Rockies, as a team, although some liked them as a sleeper entering the year

Travis Sawchik: Then, of course, Thames/Judge/Zimmerman/Yonder

Travis Sawchik: Many FanGraphs authors liked a number of these players, but to the extend that they’ve broken out is surprising

Travis Sawchik: And I don’t know that it’s a surprise, but it’s pleasant to see Bryce Harper back to his 2015 (or better) self

Travis Sawchik: And, what the heck, I’ll throw in Charlie Morton and Devenski, who has carried over his success

Herb: If the Rockies stay in contention do they try to trade for a SP like Darvish? Or do are they inclined to not invest in their rotation because it is neutralized by the altitude.

Travis Sawchik: Good question, Herb. I don’t think altitude would cause them not to look at SP help

Harish: Is Barrel a new thing in MLB statistics? I hear people talking about it a lot

Travis Sawchik: Barrel is a thing, but the newest thing is wxOBA

Travis Sawchik: What’s cool is we are gaining a better understand of batted ball quality an expected outcomes

Hot Taek: Cubs v. Cards will be closer than people think in September… thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: This would have been a hotter take in March

Travis Sawchik: I still think Cubs will find their way to top of the division but it’s going to be a race

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Mel: Aaron Hicks worth holding in 10-team?

Travis Sawchik: I think so. The improvement in zone discipline is really intriguing

Terry’s Sarape: Any idea what the average length of a major league career is? from a handful of days to 20 years, what is the average? (bonus: how long is the average minor league career?)

Travis Sawchik: Great question. I do not know for sure. I suspect it’s much briefer than many realize

Blackburn: What should the Pirates do with Cole? Seems like he could be traded in the next year or so. If he does get traded, what would a return look like for the Pirates?

Travis Sawchik: I think he could very well be traded at some point since he’s an unlikely (impossible?) extension candidate …But I suspect the club will hold until at least next deadline. But if the Pirate are out of it in July, and Cole is pitching well, his value will never be higher so I’d listen and hope for a monster return. Yankees?

mtsw: Is McCutchen hurt? Or has he really fallen off a cliff permanently?

Travis Sawchik: He did have a knee issue in 2015, but he never cited health as an issue last season. So apparently he’s healthy. But, to me, he really looks to have lost explosiveness and athleticism. The good news is his plate discipline is still largely there and his BABIP seems unlucky

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think he’s returning to superstar status, though. But I think he will wRC+ better than his current 83

Hooha: What do the bucco’s do from here? Cole would fetch quite a prospect haul.

Travis Sawchik: I think you have to explore it in July if the Pirates are out of it or on the fringe of the race

Hannah Hochevar: Like the Buxton piece. Seems like you can’t do much better for longevity hitting advice than Molitor and Hunter.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Hannah. Yeah, I think Buxton is surrounded by some good advisors. I think in the past he was listening to too many voices. But hopefully his May is indicative or a truly improved – and more relaxed – approach

Travis Sawchik: Did anyone catch his overall play in CF this weekend? He was incredible

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: He seemingly did that every other inning

Travis Sawchik: He already has a +5 DRS and 24.4 UZR/150 rating

Travis Sawchik: As good a CF as I remember seeing in a three-game stretch

SawChick: Re: Cole. Anyway Yanks get him without trading Torres?

Travis Sawchik: They’d have to give up some nice pieces

Joe, Esq.: Yan Gomes back to not being an offensive liability? Swings are down, contact is up.

Travis Sawchik: He’s been much better, yes. Let’s see where this goes

Spencer : You buying Conforto as budding superstar? Article coming soon?

Travis Sawchik: I’m a big fan. Perhaps! He’s not going to hit like this all season, but I love the swing and batted-ball quality

Colt Holt: Votto May 14

2015: .298/.404/.516
2016: .224/.366/.371
2017: .291/.399/.582

Full Season

2015: .314/.459/.541
2016: .326/.434/.550
2017: ????

Best quest at where Votto ends 2017? What is the likelihood this is his best season ever???

Travis Sawchik: Obviously yes

Laroo: Keon broxton over/under – 15 hrs, 35 sb. What say you?

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=9253&legend=1&statArr=50…

Travis Sawchik: Over over

Craig : Excited about Ian Happ? Maddon’s comments seem to suggest they may keep him up when everyone’s back healthy.

Ian Happ: Can I stay up as long as Cody Bellinger?

Travis Sawchik: As long as the puns stop, I’m OK with. Too decent young bats, eh?

Jim: Alex Wood now a hold (instead of a stream) in 10-team?

Travis Sawchik: I think so. He’s been really good

BK: Who should the Braves thank more for their 2020 WS Title: Diamondbacks or Mariners. Jackson is raking and Gohara is dealing

Travis Sawchik: Diamondbacks. Dansby will be just fine

Tevor: After the Jays terrible start 2-11, they are now 17-21 and still without 5 of their regulars. Do you see them rebounding to challenge the NYY, BAL, RS.

Travis Sawchik: They were a postseason FG favorite — excuse me — favourite preseason. It’s still possible. Still, a lot of talent there, though much of it is aging

William: Why are there still articles questioning Trea Turner’s defense? Have any of these people watched him lately? Unbelievable plays this season. Including a Jeter like one yesterday. Do people that write articles on players ever watch the player or just cull through the previous postings?

Travis Sawchik: A Jeter-like one? A routine play for many shortstops made to look spectacular? I will add this story to the suggestions box. Probably more folks are interested in his bat right now, though

Jeter: I’m 19 years old in 2017.. Do I have the same (or at least similar) career in today’s game?

Travis Sawchik: Jeter was, of course, a great all-fields hitter, so shifts, etc. should not have have effected his batted ball production/profile much

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: That’s a thing of beauty

Travis Sawchik: But would he be allowed to be grandfathered in at shortstop despite his decline?

Travis Sawchik: If Jeter was the best teammate of all time, shouldn’t he have offered to move down the defensive spectrum?

Manny Machado: Derek Jeter is the world’s most over-rated athelete of all time!!

Travis Sawchik: Derek Jeter was a great player. He’s a HoF. But he was probably also over-rated due to media exposure, market, etc.

Travis Sawchik: No more Jeter talk!

Anonymous: Bauer for Harvey straight up. Who hangs up first?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know that anyone would hang up. It could be a long conversation.

#BanTheWave: ill bet this week’s paycheck Broxton doesn’t get to 15 hr/ 35 sb with his contact and K rates

Travis Sawchik: I will send you my PayPal info!

Buck: Just saw you say Dansby will be fine. Can you give me some of the numbers for why you believe that? I’m getting nervous and need some reassurance!

Travis Sawchik: He’s actually chasing often this season. Mostly swinging at strikes. .224 BABIP. And Harper/Trout/Machado are spoiling us to think that young players rarely go through trying adjustment periods

#BanTheWave: Stop pretending shifts have such a huge impact to player’s success as a whole. BABIP has remained unchanged since teams went shifty heavy. But you’ll ignore this and keep pumping your narrative

Travis Sawchik: It’s a complicated subject

Travis Sawchik: But if they were not effective, it’s curious why their usage rate increased every year and they’ve proliferated throughout the game

mtsw: It seems like savvy SABR types are pumping the brakes on Jeter’s legacy a little bit. Is there any chance that by the time he’s on the HoF ballot, he fails to get in on the first ballot (even though he’s a clear HoFer) just as a way for the savvier writers to send a message about his legacy?

Travis Sawchik: I’d say zero chance

Seven Costanza: Votto has stopped swinging at pitches above the zone. He’s swung at 4 of the 52 pitches he’s seen above the zone this year according the BrooksBaseball. Bright red boxes at top of zone, deep blue boxes above the zone. Pretty amazing.

Travis Sawchik: I love a good heat map

Piggity Padres: Hedges’ power output has been a welcome surprise for the Padres. If he can get his OBP to .300, does his defense and power make him a top 5 real life catcher?

Travis Sawchik: Hedges really made this change lats season, so it’s exciting to see it carry over. It looks like a real skill change. He’s now a pretty valuable asset … and if he can get that OBP up he could really be something

Patrick: Is Aaron Altherr a legit starting MLB RF? Power is back, speed never left, and plate discipline seems improved.

Travis Sawchik: He’s been another pleasant surprise, for sure.

Sam: How concerned should we be about Tanaka? Def com 5?

Travis Sawchik: Home runs are killing him. Swinging Strike% and FB velo are actually up, so I’m at Def com 3

Guest: Yankees most improved long term with the outcomes from Judge, Hicks, Montgomery, and to a lesser extent Castro?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees’ future looked pretty bright and now it’s like the surface -of-the-sun bright

toe pick: TS…..should i trade arrieta? he’s scaring me. I can probably deal him and beltran for murphy. Or arrieta straight up for justin turner or ryan braun? or do i just hold and wait?

Travis Sawchik: K-BB% is pretty darn good 18.4% …. Warren Buffet axiom: When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy. So I’d hang on to him

Sonny: Dombrowski turned a strong, deep franchise into a top heavy org with a short but brilliant window. I don’t understand how he can get fired and do exactly the same thing but add a closer.

Travis Sawchik: Sale and Kimbrel are great … but imagine that window had they held on to everything and dove in on the 2019 FA class?

The warm side of the pillow: Is Joey Votto a HOFer? I say yes but baseball writers like to cling to things like RBIs

Travis Sawchik: He’ll be a HoF. And even if you were concerned about The Old Guard of writer, the electorate will be much different when he is eligible

Phan: in your estimation, who are the two favorites now for the nl wildcard?

Travis Sawchik: Rockies, Cardinals

Tim: Is Felipe Rivero the Pirates closer by the end of this season ? I think good chance Tony Watson is moved like Melancon last season. Daniel Huddon

Travis Sawchik: Rivero is their best relief pitcher, not sure if that means he has to be the closer. Good chance Watson is moved

Scoop: Think Berrios turned it around. His first MLB start this year was impressive.

Travis Sawchik: I’ve always been a fan. He was great Saturday. Great three-pitch mix. Twins need need him to fit in mid to top of rotation

First: Any thoughts on acquiring Jameson Taillon? For it? Against it?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be for it

Archie Graham: Better ROS, McCutchen or Encarnacion?

Travis Sawchik: Encarnacion. He’s often been a slow starter … though he’s now 34. But he isn’t expanding zone, he is missing pitches he typically does damage upon.

Ken: Hey Travis, thanks for the chat. Just wanted to chime in to thank you for that Thames piece, really enjoyed it.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Ken! That was a fun one to report/write. Thames is really a thoughtful person. Hopefully his story inspires others to use their down time well

St. James: Travis! What have you seen in Puig since the fly ball revolution article you wrote on him?

Travis Sawchik: Not as many fly-balls as I would have hope for 🙁 … But it shouldn’t be noted he began experimenting in March, not at the beginning of the offseason. I am not sure if he bought in, or scraped the plan

Moltar: What’s more likely, that Arrieta is a great pitcher on a massive cold streak, or that he’s an average pitcher that went on a massive hot streak for ’15-first half ’16?

Travis Sawchik: I still think he’s a quality arm, but 2015 will likely be an outlier year for him. While the K-BB% is still good, while he’s been unlucky on some BIP perhaps, stuff and command are down

Jake Arrieta: Has my ship sailed on a 7-year mega deal?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think those years are happening

Travis Sawchik: But future generations of Arrietas will still be doing OK financially

Baker: Thoughts on Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell? Minor Stats suggested a good batting profile, though not the ideal for 1B.

Travis Sawchik: I’m a believer. Power has gradually improved. Not too many switch hitters with his batting eye and bat-to-ball skills

canofcorn66: Are you on the “Jharel Cotton is actually good” train?

Travis Sawchik: It’s Eno’s train, but I bought a ticket to ride

Jacko: Who is more likely to end up on the Yankees: Cole, Quintana or Darvish

Travis Sawchik: Hmmm. Quintana? White Sox are a definite seller

Travis Sawchik: But it will be interesting to see how much restraint the Yankees show. I think they are sort of beating their own timetable

Phan: huge fan of your work Travis, thanks for your time… thoughts on jp crawford and rhys hoskins? opposite ends of the phillies aaa spectrum

Travis Sawchik: JP is going to be a good ML SS. But the bat will look relatively weak compared to this elite class of SS. …. Hoskins is raking.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for reading!

Vinny: is Bellinger in the majors to stay, Dodgers have been better overall since he’s been called up

Travis Sawchik: That swing. THAT SWING. I don’t want to ever see it be optioned

Rags: NL-only. Giving Arrieta to get Greinke + what class of hitter makes this a fair deal?

Travis Sawchik: Greinke looks pretty great. It would have to be a solid regular

Borksadork: Start Manaea in Seattle tonight or wait and see if the shoulder is healed?

Travis Sawchik: Depending on your depth, I’d role the dice

Look At The #s: With the Cubs Rotation looking pretty lousy but having won the WS. What’s more likely, trading for a frontline SP or punting 2017 and looking for FA’s in 2018?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not punting if I’m Chicago

Travis Sawchik: Buy? Perhaps

Travis Sawchik: Still pretty early

JoeB: What’s wrong with Miggy? Is he gonna catch fire and finish as typical Miggy?

Travis Sawchik: Recall before the injury he was having awful luck on batted balls

Dan: “future generations of Arrietas” makes me think of just bearded babies doing Pilates

Travis Sawchik: If worked for their forefather

Matthew: Defcon 5 is the lowest – normal readiness. Defcon 1 is the highest.

Travis Sawchik: This could come in handy

Matt: I’ve read all this Eric Thames analysis. The idea of his improvement coming from an improved eye seems to hold a little water. But really, don’t you think its mostly attributed to the fact that he looks like he could break every pitcher in half over his knee and strikes the fear of god in them when he so much as looks in their direction?

Travis Sawchik: THAT could also be part of it

Travis Sawchik: Thames did have real skills, bat speed, power, before he left

Sean: I know this is last week’s topic, but as far as ties in baseball, the 18 inning game was a talking point at my office in Chicago. Talk about the sport is good. No one talked about the 9 inning shutout loss yesterday.

Bleh: Travis, why doesn’t Joc Pederson hit the ball in the air more?

Travis Sawchik: I get it. There are not many 18-inning games. But for the team that loses, it can spin one loss into another. Aren’t all teams always worried about pitching depth?

Travis Sawchik: Pederson has been fly-ball neutral for his career, but, yeah, he might benefit from some time with Justin Turner. It’s not just about fly-balls, it’s about getting on plane with pitch to produce quality contact. So Turner doesn’t have many home runs this year but he’s been squaring everything up

Phantastic: Asdrubel’s out with a torn ligament. If he hits the DL do we finally see Rosario make his debut?

Travis Sawchik: Hmmmm. How much do the Mets care about Super 2?

First: Circling back on the acquiring Taillon question. With no timetable but optimistic about a return, do you think he comes back by all star break?

Travis Sawchik: I have no idea. I haven’t heard anything about timetable.

Scoop: Byron Buxton a top 50 player next year. Seems to be turning things around now, but do you believe he’s still a year away?

Travis Sawchik: With that defense and base-running he might just need to be league-average to be top 50

JoeB: Still high on JC Rameriz for an American League only league? Upside prediction?

Travis Sawchik: It appears he’s made some real changes to drive skill growth. I’m still intrigued

Moelicious: Expectations for Aaron Nola this year?

Travis Sawchik: When he’s healthy, he’s really good and has two of the best pitches in baseball in his curve and two-seamer

Will: Who is more likely to be a Nat: Herrera or Robertson?

Travis Sawchik: I really though Treinen was going to be good. Whoops! Nats are in win-now-while-Harper-is-here mode so I would expect them to try to upgrade as they did a year ago.

Travis Sawchik: Hey, wouldn’t Rivero look good in the Nats’ pen?

Travis Sawchik: That’s the danger in trading away control for “proven closer”

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: When is the last time you thought about Eddie Gaedel?

Travis Sawchik: years. But you have me thinking about what his BB% could have been

Bryz: What was the “toll” that you had to pay Sano in order to interview Buxton?

Travis Sawchik: He asked for $200

Travis Sawchik: Seems a bit much!

Old Spartan: CBS H2H points league…I have the #1 waiver spot…Kluber, Paxton & Britton on DL, but 6-0 with luck. Do I use that waiver to pick up Morton? Or, trade Braun for Lester? or both?

Travis Sawchik: Both. I’m buying Morton, and Lester’s track record (and K%)

baby bull : 18 inning game: yes teams are always worried about pitching depth but fans are not. Expand rosters if you’re worried about pitching depth.

Travis Sawchik: How many fans stick around for the 18th inning?

Travis Sawchik: The thing about those pining for 18-inning games is I doubt many are really watching all 18 innings

The warm side of the pillow: Is Sano’s soft hit % real? That seems impossible

Travis Sawchik: Might have a thing about this later today/tomorrow!

corey kluber: do you believe i will get healthy enough to turn this season around?

Travis Sawchik: Yes. Indians are being rightfully cautious.

Matt: As someone who stuck around for all 18 innings last week, (and someone who supports letting the game go until someone wins) I can say that there were not many left at the end. In fact, almost the entire audience came to Taco Bell afterwards. And they fit.

Travis Sawchik: Taco Bell after 18 innings … Rough night!

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I stayed for the 18 inning affair in DC where Starling Marte had an outfield assist, a double, and a dinger. Hope he wasn’t juicing then.

Travis Sawchik: Actually, that 18th inning was pretty great

Tony: Samardzija – potential top of the rotation arm or stuck in the Pineda Zone of always running an ERA almost a full run higher than his xFIP?

Travis Sawchik: Not a believer in ace potential

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Brad Miller hasn’t been keeping up with his numbers from last year. Other than an elite walk rate, his numbers are actually quite bad, and the BABIP and HR/FB (.265, 7.1%) don’t suggest he’s getting particularly unlucky. He’s swinging a lot less, and his contact numbers are down a bit. What’s the problem?

Travis Sawchik: Strange start. 18% walk rate, though! It’s still early

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, thanks for attending this week’s chat. If I didn’t get to your question this week, gently remind me next week and I will move you to the front of the queue

Travis Sawchik: Till next week. Be good and do good.