Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:03
Travis Sawchik: How, how about that Baltimore pitching?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: And apparently there is a draft tonight ….

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Let’s talk …

12:04
Babe Lincoln: You tell me. How about that Baltimore pitching?

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Not so good this weekend. Yikes.

12:04
Terence: What team will have the best record RoS?

12:05
Travis Sawchik: Our projections believe it will be the Dodgers followed by Cubs and Indians (I believe)

12:06
Travis Sawchik: I think that seems reasonable … Astros, though

12:06
Christian: Predictions for Judge’s end of season numbers? Obviously he can’t hit like this all season, but is his true talent batting average looking substantially better than expected at this point?

12:07
Travis Sawchik:

If you thought @TheJudge44’s 495-foot shot was majestic … you’re going to LOVE the extended cut…. twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
12 Jun 2017
12:07
Travis Sawchik: Let’s all appreciated that 495-foot homer one more time

12:08
Travis Sawchik: He can’t continue this all season, and his strikeouts had been inching up, but I think he can beat his Depth Charts projected slash line

12:08
Travis Sawchik: .258 .343 .511

12:09
Travis Sawchik: He’s going to exceed 40 homers with health and finish with an OPS around 1000, I suspect

12:10
dave in slc: fantasy question in an al only league do you have any hope for tillman or would you drop him for Martes, pazos, swarzak or mejia?

12:11
Travis Sawchik: I don’t have a ton of hope for quality fantasy league performance going forward

12:11
Ryan: Aaron Judge looks like the best player in baseball right now, but then, so did another recent Yankee prospect–Gary Sanchez. So, how good is Aaron Judge in reality?

12:13
Travis Sawchik: Hey, Gary Sanchez looked like the best player in baseball this weekend. Judge has spiked his overall value but I don’t think anyone expects him to wRC+ 207 the rest of the way. … But he certainly looks more and more like a regular All-Star OF

12:15
Travis Sawchik: Strikeouts might become more of an issue but he has power, eye, and enough D to become the AL’s Stanton if not more

12:15
Matty P: Andrew Miller put out another fire yesterday for the Tribe. Should he be getting some Cy Young votes this year?

12:16
Travis Sawchik: I don’t think the voters are there yet … but I’d consider him on my ballot

12:16
Gary Sanchez: Time to face the music Travis. #iamgary

12:18
Travis Sawchik: That was an ill-timed post! And it will probably not go down as one the better posts I have authored at FG. I still think Sanchez is really good … just expectations were out of control. But, hey, maybe he will end up matching or exceeding them

12:18
Tim: 4 hours and 6 minutes in a 9 inning game last night b/t the Tigers and Red Sox last night. This can’t be good for baseball. Does anyone in the clubhouse make a remark to pitchers who take this long? Is there an unwritten rule about position players telling pitchers how to do their job? I can’t imagine the infielders and outfielders enjoy this crap any more than the fans do.

12:19
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, that’s not good for anybody. I thought the game did a better job two years ago enforcing pace of play rules but it seems like batters are stepping out more now, more RPs continue to be used. Pace between pitch is up

12:19
Travis Sawchik: The pitch clock can’t be too far away at this point

12:19
Matt: Aaron Nola did great against ATL (obvi) then had some trouble against STL and only pitched 5. I didn’t watch, just read recap, but he gave up a 3 run HR with two outs. Did you see it? Was he looking good, or not so much?

12:20
Travis Sawchik: I did not see it. I still believe in Nola. He has two excellent pitches. Maybe he won’t become an ace, but he’s still a guy I believe can fit in the top of a rotation

12:21
Cee Jay: Thoughts about Peacock? Had a rough outing yesterday but has been very good since transitioning to the rotation.

12:22
Travis Sawchik: I want to see more before forming an opinion but I’m still very intrigued

12:22
Brett: Thoughts on Kendrys Morales ROS? I feel like dropping him, (15-tm dynasty) but seem to believe he had a big second half last year.

12:23
Travis Sawchik: He’s not too far removed from his 2016 level. 15 teams is pretty deep, I’d hang onto him. I still think he has more HR potential in AL East

12:23
Josh: Do you think Brinson is up for good, even when Braun returns? What would this mean for Keon Broxton?

12:27
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What reasonably-calculable statistics are the best metrics to determining the most valuable players in my company softball league?

12:27
Travis Sawchik: Brewers have an OF log jam .. curious to see how they handle it

12:28
Travis Sawchik: Broxton could be the odd man out … but i’d personally like to give him more PT

12:29
Travis Sawchik: Company softball metrics? I’m not sure how sophisticated you want to go. I think most people would accept OPS

12:29
Bobby OB: Gary Sanchez has 30 bombs in 382 career PAs, at the most offensively-challenged position in baseball, but he’s still not a superstar. Got it.

12:32
Travis Sawchik: Superstar? That’s a high bar to cross. I’m not there. Maybe I’m really wrong.

12:33
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Without sacrificing your journalistic integrity, have you ever asked a player to play catch?

12:33
Travis Sawchik: I have not. No autograph requests, either

12:33
capconstrained: So what were you saying about Gary Sanchez again?

12:34
Travis Sawchik: LOL. Full accountability today. That post isn’t aging well.

12:34
JDX: I demand you unseat Jeff Sullivan and his reign of terror from the “Most Popular” posts spot on the front page.

12:35
Travis Sawchik: That’s a tough ask! I assume that is decided by the people in terms of clicks? Jeff’s posts will often reside there, I suspect

12:35
That guy from France: So, … Aaron Judge for MVP no ?

12:36
Travis Sawchik: At the moment, yes

12:36
Travis Sawchik: Could see a Correa or an Altuve or Lindor or a Sano making a surge in a partial-Trout season

12:38
Zack: I know Wilmer Font is 27 yrs old but he is putting up numbers in the PCL that most #3-#5 starters in the majors couldn’t match if they were sent down. Will he be given a chance to show what he could do in the bigs?

12:39
Travis Sawchik: In a world with a 10-day DL that the Dodgers use to form a 6-man rotation of sorts, he should get a shot

12:40
Josh: If you were the Twins, who would you pick?

12:40
Travis Sawchik: I am not a draft expert. But Hunter Greene is the most compelling guy, for me, in the field

12:41
Harold: What do you project offensively for Mallex Smith & Lewis Brinson? In terms of fantasy, any better than Lucas Duda or Brandon Belt levels of production?

12:43
Travis Sawchik: I’m a big Belt fan, especially in an OBP league. But I like taking chances on Smith and Brinson RoS over Duda

12:43
Crazy Aunt Marie : Judge is now the AL triple slash leader. Without Trout he has to be the MVP favorite at this point, right?

12:44
Travis Sawchik: Right. What difficult about Judge is we don’t know really know what his baseline is after swing changes/adjustments he made over the offseason.

12:45
Sean: Regarding projections, do you buy them fully? E.g., do you really believe the Rockies and Diamondbacks are likely only .500 teams going forward? Both teams look to be substantially better.

12:46
Travis Sawchik: They are certainly not perfect tools. They cannot know everything we humans know. I do think Rockies and Diamondbacks are good bets to beat RoS projections

12:46
Cee Jay: Aaron Hicks…you buying or selling?

12:47
Travis Sawchik: I love the new approach, new level of discipline. I’m buying

12:48
Jeff Hoffman: Given a regular rotation spot, what kind of fantasy value will I likely provide ROS?

12:51
Travis Sawchik: Not this level … but mid-rotation value is reasonable and would be nothing to sneeze at (8.5k, 3bb/9) Rockies had a sneaky good rotation entering the year and they sit ninth in MLB in ERA (4.16) with room to improve

12:51
Big Joe Mufferaw: If Tanaka turns it around. Are Yankees the AL East favorites?

12:52
Travis Sawchik: They might already be the AL East favorites but that wouldn’t hurt

12:52
Interesting Questions: There has to be more interesting questions being submitted then “who will win the MVP” and “Grade my hypothetical fantasy trade”. As an avid FG fan who participates in every chat at work, I can guanratee I’ve submitted 1 unanswered question a chat better than “Who’s the MVP”. It’s mid June and the Award doesn’t actually mean anything, and yet that question is without fail answered by every writer in every chat except Eric. Enough is enough people ask better questions.

12:53
Travis Sawchik: There are no poor questions, right? But some can rate better than others. This questions appears to be more of a statement

12:53
Omar: Yankees have the best run differential in bigs. Seems like even if Tanaka doesn’t turn it around they have enough, no? Unless you’re not a believer in the rest of that staff

12:54
Travis Sawchik: They might. Severino and Pineda have been great

12:54
Hmmm.: Is this question interesting enough?

12:54
Travis Sawchik: That’s pushing the pass/fail mark

12:54
Daniel: What do you think the biggest difference is in the game 5 years from now?

12:55
Travis Sawchik: Interesting question! I suspect bullpen usage, and what we’re going to do about velocity that keeps rising

12:55
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know what to make of the HR spike, yet. … in regard to if it will keep increasing

12:56
Matt: This is me complaining that you didn’t answer my question in the hour-plus of your time that you’ve offered me for free.

12:56
Travis Sawchik: The queue can also serve as a complaint box, and where you can send me Gary Sanchez crow pie

12:57
Amed Rosario: What’s my ceiling? Can a 2018 offense of Conforto, Cespedes, myself, and Dom Smith carry a team?

12:57
Travis Sawchik: That looks like a pretty solid core of a lineup. Not sure Dom Smith is going to hit enough to be star level

12:59
Hunky Dory: When all is said and done – do the Blue Jays sell in July? Gut feeling

12:59
Travis Sawchik: It would be better for the Jays to sell a year too early rather than a year too late

12:59
Travis Sawchik: So, if there’

12:59
Travis Sawchik: s doubt I’d probably lean toward selling

1:00
Matt: Does Glasnow return to the majors as a starter this season? Is his fure in the pen?

1:01
Travis Sawchik: He has a ton to work on to cut it as a starter … I know some folks like John Manuel at BA have always considered the bullpen a legit avenue for him.

1:02
Travis Sawchik: I wonder if Glasnow might benefit from working in bullpen perhaps growing back to a rotation role from there, the idea being to simplify and master things before graduating to next challenge

1:02
Intersting Questions: Most the “Questions” asked and answered are very good. It’s just the endless “Should I drop this shitty starter for this shitty starter” or “Who would you keep in my 12 team dynasty league only I’m in” that nobody cares about at all. Maybe a good solution would to have a Fantasy specific chat for trade proposals and streams every week too so people could blow their loads on that and the many people who just like baseball not fantasy baseball wouldn’t have to sift through the endless questions? Just trying to offer a helpful solution. Thanks for the chats.

1:03
Travis Sawchik: We welcome all suggestions. I think the fantasy business is pretty important to readership at FG, but I try not to overwhelm everyone with fantasy-related questions (but there are many every week). I also try to answer interesting questions!

1:04
Jeries: Do the Yankees have enough to deal for an ace at the deadline without giving up Gleyber Torres?

1:04
Travis Sawchik: For an ace with limited control, yes

1:04
Dan the Mets Fan: Two part question: 1) isn’t my question smart? 2) please rank the excellence of my question on the 20-80 scouting scale, using individual tool rankings such as creativity, brevity, prose, clarity and wit.

1:05
Travis Sawchik: 70 for creativity and prose

1:05
Nicole: Do you think Clint Frazier ends up being traded again at this year’s trade deadline?

1:06
Travis Sawchik: It’s possible, yeah. Yankees OF could be pretty crowded going forward

1:06
AD: Do you expect Danny Salazar to return to being a passable starter at all this year, or is it just a lost season for him?

1:07
Travis Sawchik: The good news is he’s not hurt and he was/is missing a ton of bats, K% was at a career-best

1:07
Travis Sawchik: So if he can collect himself, he could impact down the stretch…I’d also be curious to see him in a multi-inning bullpen role given his stuff and that he’s struggled to find a third pitch

1:10
JK: If the Tigers end up selling JD Martinez, what are some of his likelier destinations?

1:11
Travis Sawchik: Good question. Among the contending clubs, Rockies rank last in LF and RF production. I assume CarGo will get going, and I’m not sure you want Martinez’s glove in the Coors’ OF …. I could see Cleveland making some sense

1:11
Matt: How many current MLB stadiums will still be in use in 25 years? Will new stadiums continue the retro trend or will a new trend emerge?

1:12
Travis Sawchik: I hope most current stadiums will still be operation and taxpayers will not be fleeced into building new ballparks to keep teams….But it is troubling that Atlanta and Texas are/or will be opening new ballparks

1:14
dave in slc: sometimes we just like to get a feel for who the fg writers like more out of certain guys. is that not interesting? I like that each have their own personality. even if it is phrased for a fantasy question it tells you something about the writer

1:14
Travis Sawchik: Not a question, but I accept thought statements, too

1:14
BH: Speaking of Salazar, do you think he ultimately ends up in the bullpen since Miller and Allen are FA in ’18?

1:15
Travis Sawchik: Indians might need a bullpen rebuild after next season. I do think Salazar makes sense there … if starting continues to be a struggle

1:16
Marcus Banks: A few weeks ago Dave and Dan said they weren’t buying Severino as an ace. Are you?

1:16
Travis Sawchik: He looks pretty ace-y at the moment… But I do think acehood requires a larger sample

1:16
AD: Re: Salazar in the multi-inning BP role, I feel like that would be hard to do with the Indians since they already have Miller and Shaw capable of throwing multiple quality innings in any given game. Just not sure there’d be enough innings to go around (except for Trevor Bauer starts)

1:17
Travis Sawchik: It might not make a ton of sense in the short term. And he’s still most valuable if he can figure the starting thing out

1:17
Question for Eric?: Are you familiar with Tyler O’Neill? If so, what is going on with him? Where did the power go? So many IFFB.

1:17
Travis Sawchik: Better question for Eric

1:17
Lou: It’s looking like the NL West (Rockies, Dodgers, D-backs) has the 2 wild card teams much like the NL Central a couple years back (Cards, Cubs, Pirates). Is this fair since then the Divisional matchup will have 2 NL West teams? Should the WC always be the lowest seed?

1:18
Travis Sawchik: I know the Pirates were not thrilled about being a 98-win wild card team and playing a 97-win wild card team in a one-game playoff in 2015

1:19
Travis Sawchik: There are too many divisions. I’d personally like to see a return of East-West divisions in each league … but baseball benefits from as many playoff races as possible

1:20
FamilyBro: What’s wrong with Gerrit Cole and should we consider selling?

1:21
Travis Sawchik: What’s interesting about Cole is his changeup usage has nearly tripled this year, spin usage is up, fastball rate is down (and fastball has been less effective)

1:21
Travis Sawchik: I do think the Pirates are going to have consider selling Cole at some point in the next calendar year. As for fantasy purposes, probably a good time to hol

1:21
Travis Sawchik: d

1:21
Look At The #s: Win your division then.

1:22
Travis Sawchik: The second wild card has made division titles meaningful, true. There

1:22
Travis Sawchik: ‘s just too many divisions

1:22
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: This is a particularly Yankees-heavy chat, which perhaps makes sense due to their record, young stars, and the recency of your Sanchez post. What Major League team is the current antithesis of the Yankees–old scrubs, bad record, no Gary Sanchez post–and can you answer the next six questions in the queue you get about that team?

1:23
Travis Sawchik: That’s A LOT of criteria to meet

1:24
Travis Sawchik: The Yankees are really interesting right now, they are a large-market club, and popular opinion is a authored a really bad post. I’m not sure any team meets that.

1:24
Travis Sawchik: In the AL East, the Blue Jays are perhaps at the other end of the spectrum

1:25
Travis Sawchik: But I would not be interested in writing anything not-super-positive about Russell Martin

1:25
TP: I like listening to you and Carson discuss HBD; would you ever consider writing about it?

1:26
Travis Sawchik: Thanks! Carson has in the past. That could be an enjoyable post down the road.

1:26
Brewers: What is your inclination on the Brewers in a month as the deadline approaches? Are they still sellers or do they try to keep their core intact?

1:26
Travis Sawchik: I’d give it a month, but I suspect they might try to sell some pieces

1:26
Michael: where would you rank Wolters among catchers? obviously he’s probably not a .400 obp guy, but the eye and contact skills seem to be for real, and stats (and pitchers) rave about his defense

1:27
Travis Sawchik: Going from middle infield prospect to maybe a really good catcher is pretty fascinating

1:27
David Robertson: When am I getting outta Chicago? and where am I going?

1:27
Travis Sawchik: Everyone has been connecting dots to Washington, right?

1:28
Dan: why do baseball writers and talking heads feel the need to say “for me” so often? its like, like, when middle school kids say “like” all the time

1:28
Travis Sawchik: To avoid awkward silence? Maybe it’s like triggering a swing? Now, I wonder if I have a similar flaw ….

1:29
Reunited and it feels so good: Can you pitcher Ivan Nova wearing pinstripes again?

1:29
Travis Sawchik: Wouldn’t that be something?

1:29
Chucky: Red Sox doing any ‘soul searching” and realize that this is a completely different team without Popi’s presence? Any chance they say ” to heck with it, we ain’t catching the Yankees and become sellers? Have we seen Mookie’s ceiling already? Talk about missing Popi?

1:30
Travis Sawchik: Sox are only four back. I still like the on-field product quite a bit

1:30
Omar: Rangers, realistically, need a new stadium. You sit in the outfield bleachers under that hotass Texas sun. It’s BRUTAL…the gate is a big portion of MLB success, don’t we want teams to be in good situations to succeed financially? July day games in the Texas sun is a deal breaker. Given the success of the Cowboys, Mavs, and to a lesser extent the Stars a new stadium makes sense for the Rangers.

1:30
Travis Sawchik: Texas baseball should most often be played under a roof, fair enough….that was poor plannin g

1:31
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What are the next markets where you see a Major League team? Montreal, Portland, San Juan, Charlotte, Nashville, New Orleans, maybe even Mexico City or Havana way down the road? Are these all expansion teams, or is one or more of them a relocation?

1:31
Travis Sawchik: Montreal and …. I’m not sure. Charlotte makes sense to me.

1:32
Casey: Did you watch last night’s game? What’s your take on Pomeranz? It looked like he had the same stuff from his past few outings, but he got squeezed.

1:33
Travis Sawchik: I was flipping between Stanley Cup final … I didn’t see a ton of his start. I do like Rich Hill-lite version of Pomeranz but it comes with a high level of variance in performance from start to start

1:34
Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to go write and report for you and apologize to Gary Sanchez. Thanks for the questions. I found many of them to be interesting.

1:34
Travis Sawchik: Be good, do good

We hoped you liked reading Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat by Travis Sawchik!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

newest oldest most voted
crew87
Member
crew87

“…the gate is a huge portion of MLB success.”

false.

Momus
Member
Momus

Hmmm… the average MLB ticket costs about $76, and the average team draws around 30,000 fans per game, so that adds up to about $185M a year (76*30,000*162/2 – since obviously every game has 2 teams)

…so the gate isn’t peanuts. Add in the concessions and parking and souvenirs and merchandise, and, and, and… I’m sure the ballpark represents a pretty hefty chunk of team revenue.

Which is precisely why nobody’s tax money should *ever* be paying for a stadium for a professional sports team btw.

Mr Hardball
Member
Mr Hardball

tickets, ie “the gate,” is a massive part of MLB revenue. This isn’t the NFL with a puny gate. MLB teams sell more tickets than all other leagues (NBA, NHL, NFL) combined! (by 10 million tickets!!!) With fewer total events too. The gate can pay entire payrolls in some cases…. this isn’t true of any other sport.

Dave T
Member
Dave T

You are simply wrong on that. Look at these easy to compare Bloomberg revenue estimates from about 5 years ago – https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/infographics/mlb-team-values.html . Even teams with large TV deals – e.g., Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox – generated more revenue from the combination of gate, concessions, and parking than from media rights. And the difference between teams can be massive: the Yankees had estimated total gate plus concessions revenue of $318 million versus the Rays generating $41 million total from gate, concessions, and parking.