Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

Travis Sawchik: Happy Monday, and happy trade deadline week …

String Cheese: Yesterday it was reported that the Tigers could be done dealing. Do you think a “stand pat” deadline strategy would be wise for Detroit?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be looking to move Justin Wilson …. lot of teams have been interested in impact bullpen guys

Jacket: Hey Travis, how well does Devers need to hit for me to keep him over Rob Ray or Alex wood at the same price?

Travis Sawchik: Quite a bit better than his Steamer projection

Sebastian : You buy Smoak?

Travis Sawchik: Mostly. When a guy dramatically improves his K rate and contact rates when everyone else’s seem to be going up …. that seems to speak to an improved process

Travis Sawchik: Maybe he’s finally the guy we thought he was coming out of SCarolina

The Average Sports Fan: Can you please rank the following in toughness: a baby’s bottom, wet toilet paper, and Aaron Sanchez’s right hand

Travis Sawchik: I have not been acquainted with his right hand , I have been with the former. Wet toilet paper is my guess

Pie: Jose Altuve in 44 road games this year: .420/.495/.688

Travis Sawchik: Woah

Travis Sawchik: He’s so freaking good

Travis Sawchik: And yet he’s 1,820 hits shy of 3,000

Matty P: Royals hold a wildcard spot. I know on paper they don’t seem that good of a team.. but I would not want to vs them in the playoffs

Travis Sawchik: Well, we have them with a .491 RoS winning percentage and I’m not sure their staff scares me a whole bunch

Greg: Where is Brand Hand playing two weeks from now? And in what role?

Travis Sawchik: Astros don’t have many weaknesses but they have one lefty in the bullpen, ditto for Cleveland with Boone Logan going down. Tampa has called on about every lefty available

Travis Sawchik: I’ll say Houston

Ryan: Would it take a top 50 prospect to land Darvish even though he is a rental?

Travis Sawchik: That’s what it took to land Chapman … so I’ll say yes

Danny: What can we realistically expect from Devers with only about a half season above A ball?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a great question and no one knows. Our projections have him as a league-average hitter, which is great for a 20-year-old. But he has elite talent, he has upside, which is more than can be said for much of the trade market options

Chris: Hi Travis.  All the sportswriters getting laid off recently has been terrible.  Is there a way to help out FG beyond a membership?

Travis Sawchik: It is awful. The media industry continues to contract and be in a chaotic state. FG membership and your readership is a great start.

Erik: Imagine three teams: Team A is by far the best in the league at identifying which non-prosepcts will become average regulars. Team B is by far the best at identifying which top-100 prospects will become all-starts. Team C is by far the best at identifying when and how badly current starts will age. All else being equal, which team is the best?

Travis Sawchik: A thought experiment!

Travis Sawchik: Since most prospects are not top 100 prospects, I would suspect Team A

bob loblaw: probably the millionth kershaw question — are you worried?   I feel like they have every reason to rest him a month or more.

Travis Sawchik: Wrap him bubble wrap for a few weeks and check back

Mike Milligan: Thanks for the chat. With the Kershaw injury and the general uncertainty of back injuries should the Dodgers be pushing hard to acquire Darvish ? What kind of a rental package would it take ?

Travis Sawchik: It’s going to take a significant return. Kershaw’s injury increases need but I wouldn’t go too crazy wth Hill pitching well again, Wood breaking out, and the club holding a 10.5 game lead in division

John: Hi Travis, why do people not claim players they want to trade for on waivers? (post 7/31, pre 8/31).  Are you required to trade for them if the claim goes thru?

Travis Sawchik: No. Teams block teams on waivers all the time without completing a deal

PTBNL: Travis – saw your piece on Devers this morning. If he has a 2016 Moncada-like struggle this week do you think Dom makes a move for someone like Lowrie, Kinsler, or Prado before the deadline?

Travis Sawchik: That’s an awfully small sample. I think if you bring Devers up you have to commit to him for an extended period

Travis Sawchik: I’d revisit situation at the Aug. 31 deadline if he’s struggling. Don’t want to bring kid of for a couple weeks, he struggles, and send him back down.

Kyle: Who will these lefty relievers be playing for after the trade deadline: Brad Hand, Justin Wilson, Zach Britton?

Travis Sawchik: Astros, Indians, Rays, Dodgers all make sense to me … If I am the Padres, Tigers and Orioles I am moving them in this market

Matt: With Polanco hitting the DL, does it become less likely that the Pirates trade Cutch? Or are these events mutually exclusive?

Travis Sawchik: I think Pirates’ recent surge means Cutch is staying, and I still Cutch might be more valuable to Pirates in 2018 compared to what could be a modest return. He is the club’s best hitter …. and they have a solid staff returning

Matty P: Now that’s the Danny Salazar that was electric and confident  to start the wildcard game in 2013. What do you think was the key to his success?

Travis Sawchik: That was Salazar’s best start. Min. through seven innings and 70.1 strike percentage … he’d only eclipsed 60 in three starts in his career. … Indians worked with him on mechanics and confidence while he was in minor league exile. They wanted to see him not ease into starts, let it rip. He did just that. Now, is he going to be consistent? If he can be, that’s a like a major trade acquisition

TRP : How much money would the Yanks have to eat to unload Ellsbury? Owed $63.5m through 2020, with a team option / $5m buy-out for 2021.

Travis Sawchik: 3.4 WAR total since start of 2015. Yikes. They’d have to eat the majority of the contract

Dosh Jonaldson: Regardless of what the Jays actually do, what *should* they do? Who should they trade, who should they keep or extend?

Travis Sawchik: Better move a year too early than a year too late. I think it’s time to break up the band, including Donaldson (though the offseason might present a better market)

KD: Is Aaron Nola A top 10 dynasty keep forever SP asset?

Travis Sawchik: I like Nola but I’d be more comfortable with top 20 designation

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Travis. Odd of a Darvish deal? And do you think it’s an NL club given Dodgers/Cubs recent interest? Thanks!

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Rangers, I’m moving him this market. I could see Cubs as having greater interest but Kershaw’s exit might help Rangers

Garden gnome Turner: Should I be worried about Kersh’s exit yesterday

Travis Sawchik: Never good … but it seems like it’s a muscular issue which means he just needs some rest

Travis Sawchik: Darvish might be a nice insurance policy, though. And the Dodgers also might want to keep Darvish away from Cubs or another NL team

Garden gnome Turner: What do the dodgers need

Travis Sawchik: See above (maybe)

kyle: What are the odds on the yankees adding a major league 1b?

Travis Sawchik: Would Yonder Alonso count?

PTBNL: David Price has been just okay since he came back. 15% K-BB%, 4.00 FIP, 83 ERA-. I guess my questions is, can the Sox win a playoff series if he’s not pitching at ace level?

Travis Sawchik: As long as Chris Sale is the AL’s best lefty they can … but having Price right is important

Big Bob: What sort of return for darvish would tx want from the cubs?

Travis Sawchik: Lot of interesting in this topic today, I’d think they’d want one impact prospect and hope to follow the Chapman return last deadline

KJ: Are the Padres right to have Schimpf down in AAA? His 2017 MLB babip pretty unlucky. Seems like power you can live with at .220

Travis Sawchik: I want Schimpf in the majors. So should the Padres. He’s a guy you want to learn more about and see what adjustments he can make at ML level

PTBNL: Travis, what’s the best ballpark to catch a game?

Travis Sawchik: My top six: Wrigley, PNC, AT&T, Fenway, Petco, Dodger

Garrett: About half of the Giants fanbase despises Brandon Belt. They don’t think he’s good. At all. Thoughts on this?

Travis Sawchik: Brandon Belt is good and is not why the Giants are terrible

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to see Belt play in any other home part. He’d be a 25-HR guy

FGFan: Last week Jeff Sullivan said that the 2016 Cubs were as good as the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers. Do you believe this to be true?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think that’s about right. And the 2017 Cubs are a reason for the Dodgers to bet on this team

Mark: People keep calling for a Darvish trade for the Dodgers since Kershaw went down. Am I the only one who thinks this is not a good idea?

Travis Sawchik: Depends on price. I’d need to know more about Kershaw’s injury to really have a strong opinion. But acquiring Darvish also blocks him from going to another club

Matt: Obviously, Hicks’ injury might take more time than expected and this is all a moot point. But the Yanks cannot justify sending Frazier down, right? In that case, how does that situation work out?

Travis Sawchik: By paying some team to take Ellsbury off their hands

Erik: Max Scherzer is 32. How many more years of near-peak performance does he need in order to make the Hall of Fame according to the outdated standards voters seem to have? How many more would he need if the standards are updated? For reference, he currently has 42.1 WAR and 136 wins.

Travis Sawchik: quite a few … He really didn’t become a star until age 27-28 … so he was kind of a late bloomer which hurts the counting stats

PTBNL: Which active player is the closest comp for Devers? Average defense at 3rd, strong left-handed bat.

Lamb? Moustakas?

Travis Sawchik: Travis Shaw?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. Lamb would be nice for BoSox. But Devers is more talented than those guys.

Raindog: Given the peanuts price for JD Martinez, and the seemingly peanuts price of the Frazier component of the Kanhle trade, is it surprising the Red Sox didn’t pick up a veteran 3B for cheap?

Travis Sawchik: It is kind of surprising …. There is some value to be had right now in buying bats

Mark Shapiro: Am I kidding myself thinking mild tweaking, and maybe 35M to spend this offseason make the Jays a contender?

Travis Sawchik: It’s possible, but that odds are against and the longer you wait on a tear down the less return possible

B: I know this is crazy due to the money owed, but why don’t the Yanks just outright Ellsbury like the Sox did Sandoval? Sometimes just getting rid of a guy you’re going to have to pay to trade anyway makes some sense. Let the youngsters play.

Travis Sawchik: It could be an option down the road

Austin Barnes: Am I the best 2nd baseman on my team?

Travis Sawchik: Hmmmmmm

Travis Sawchik: Barnes is a fascinating guy. And his .295/.403./.541 slash line deserves more PT

Clint Frazier: Am I going to be sent down when hicks comes back?

Travis Sawchik: No one seems to want to this to happen

mmddyyyy: Could the A’s trade gray and Barreto to the Giants for san jose stadium rights?

Travis Sawchik: I’d rather have club control over San Jose forever

Travis Sawchik: But add in Manaea and I’d think about it

Moltar: Are the Mets closer to a World Series title or a full rebuild? And if it’s the latter, should they jump start that now?

Travis Sawchik: Mets could be a bounce-back team in 2018 with some retooling. I wouldn

Travis Sawchik: ‘t break it up

Chuck N Chino: Are the Brewers buy or hold at the deadline?  They have some nice pieces they could move.

Travis Sawchik: Hold or light buy

Jan: Is the series win probability difference between Kersh-Wood-Hill-Maeda/McCarthy and Kersh-Wood-Darvish-Hill really signficant enough to warrant giving up anything of real value?

Travis Sawchik: If you assume full health, no. But that can be a dangerous assumption

Cole: Who can the Bluejays send away in a tear down? Tulo? Martin?

Sanchez and Stroman would be pieces to build around, no?

Travis Sawchik: Smoak? Donaldson?

Josh Donaldson: Who should be pushing for me right now? Cards, Sox?

Travis Sawchik: Problem for an intradivision trade is Devers is the Sox’ only top 50 prospect

Clint Frazier: Doesn’t my 1.6% BB rate mean I need a tad more seasoning?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, but we also want to be entertained

Erik: Do teams think about past success when making trade deadline decisions? Are the Royals more likely to sell since they won a title recently? Will the Cubs push any less hard for short term upgrades since they won last year?

Travis Sawchik: Recent winning should reduce pressure on decision makers, so, yeah, it probably plays some role

Mt Lebo Blue Devil: With the disappearance of Kang and revival of Cutch, is it possible the new thinking at PNC is that the team’s window is 2017-2019, since Cole will be there and Cutch might be at a point where accepting a 2018-2019 QO is an easy choice?

Travis Sawchik: The cutch revival, and the Cubs’ ‘meh’, makes 2018 a little more interesting

Tyler: Which team makes the playoffs first: Reds, Phillies, or Padres?

Travis Sawchik: Hmmm. I wrote that the Phillies were the best bad team in baseball earlier this year and maybe Nola will become an ace and Stanton/Yelich will be there and it’s a larger market ….so …. Phillies. Then Padres. Then Reds.

Travis Sawchik: All in by 2060

Bruce: Should the yankees stand pat on alonso with how well headley is hitting recently?

Travis Sawchik: Nah. I like Alonso there and he won’t be terribly expensive

Mistah Bean: What is going on with Donaldson? Is he still injured or are there indications of a decline?

Travis Sawchik: Donaldson does not think the ball is juiced

Travis Sawchik: Strange year. Ks are way up. Some concern but not yet panic, for me

Zac: Would you trade Robles and Otani for Bryant in a dynasty?  I’m in win-now mode.  Thanks.

Travis Sawchik: Otani is in fantasy leagues?

Travis Sawchik: What does his player page look like?

first time long time: What’s your expectations of Michael Conforto in next few years?  Who’s a good comp for him?

Travis Sawchik: He’s a star. I’d have to think about a comp.

mmddyyyy: Are there any teams that would rather make the playoffs by wildcard than division?

Travis Sawchik: Can’t imagine why you’d want to subject yourself to a 50-50 toss-up game

JudgeMe: Did you catch Olney’s article on bad contracts Yanks could flip Elsbury for? Cueto/Samardzia or even Verlander are pretty intriguing. Think something like that is realistic option?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. A creative solution could be your problem for mine if it can address a need. Verlander makes some sense

Adge: Bautista and the indians work?

Travis Sawchik: A lefty bat to platoon with Guyer might make more sense (Chisenhall is still weeks away from a return)

Papa Juan: Pinapple on pizza: Yes or no?

Travis Sawchik: Absolutely not

Travis Sawchik: Savory and sweet sold separately, please

Erik: Ignoring the fact that ownership/fans would never let this happen, if you took a currently competitive team with lots of young, controllable talent (say the Cubs or Astros) and blew it up for prospects, would the team that those prospects end up becoming be better or worse than the current team? Given that buyers usually have to give up lots of future wins for each present win, could a team with the most current wins blow it up and create the best team of all time?

Travis Sawchik: Kind of hope Luhnow doubles-down on Disastrous plan and does this in about 15 years

Travis Sawchik: There is some logic there, but eventually you have to try and win. If you could stagger a wave of upper-level and lower-level prospects it would contain even a little more logic

Anthony Rendon: Am I the most underrated player in baseball? Do you agree with Dusty’s opinion to hit me 6th to protect Murphy and in a position to drive in runs? Even with Rayburn/Difo/Drew hitting 2nd?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not sure Dusty and I would agree on much including that. Rendon is underrated, yes. Great player having a fantastic year

Jays Fan: If the Jays are serious about competing in 18 is Kendrys Morales a buyout candidate? Antiquated ballplayer that prevents team from giving older guys (Tulo/Martin/JD) a DH day, horrendous baserunner,  and mediocre ( at best) stick from the DH slot. Possible Cuban Billy Butler

Travis Sawchik: Cuban Country Breakfast, Kendrys Morales

Jays Fan: It’s just the same breakfast with mild salsa

Travis Sawchik: Plantains?

Trout: Do I stay with the Angels my entire career?

Travis Sawchik: A chance, but unlikely. Plus you are probably going to want to try and win and some point

Bingo: Who’s up for a breakout year in 2018?

Travis Sawchik: I haven’t thought much beyond this week yet

Travis Sawchik: Moncada? Devers?

Jose: What is going on with the Indians and do the Royals/Twins realistically have any chance of overtaking the ALC? That Cleveland roster is loaded with talent even with Chisenhall/Kipnis out.

Travis Sawchik: Cleveland will pull away eventually, I suspect. Twins have well outplayed their true talent level. Royals’ forecast is pretty meh

Thor’s MRI: Why hasn’t BABIP gone down with the increase in shifting?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a weird thing. Lot of good research out there on this subject. I feel like hitters are making better quality of contact and have counter-punched to a degree

John: Are pitchers forbidden to wear gloves while pitching? What about tape around fingers? It would help with the blisters…

Travis Sawchik: Not permitted, I believe

Travis Sawchik: NFL QBs can where gloves, though

Big Joe Mufferaw: What would the yankees have to give up to get Stanton if they ate his whole salary?

Travis Sawchik: How many 500-foot HRs do you need? I suspect the Yankees have their eyes on bigger prizes in the not too distant future

Quiz Time: Who has started a game for the Dodgers this year and not been on the DL?

Travis Sawchik: Is there an answer?

Big Joe Mufferaw: Is there a study or proof that trading for a rental player makes a team more likely to retain them in FA as well?

Travis Sawchik: It probably makes some difference (positive or negative) as player is exposed to city, staff and clubhouse culture. For instance, the Pirates were able to retain Nova this offseason when many thought he would go elsewhere

Jose Ramierz: Will Tito ever stop batting me 5th in the lineup when I am the best hitter on my team?

Travis Sawchik: Better than, third, right? But there is certainly a case to me made for No. 2 spot

Erik: Does Stanton on his contract have positive or negative trade value?

Travis Sawchik: Craig Edwards looked at this recently. I believe his overall value is pretty limited

Jays Fan: Rank the best uses for Roberto Osuna. Start him, let him close, cash in the trade chip?

Travis Sawchik: I’d like to see him start, personally

Travis Sawchik: Or go Devenski

Travis Sawchik: More innings, please

TacoTuesday: If there is one shocking trade this week involving a star veteran player, who would you predict he would be?

Travis Sawchik: Hmmmm

Travis Sawchik: Darvish, wouldn’t be a shock, right?

Travis Sawchik: I do think he will be top player traded in terms of current skills

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for stopping by everyone. Enjoy the next 170 hours leading up to the trade deadline.

Travis Sawchik: I think I will be back here at the same time next week but there might be a different chat plan since it will be deadline day and just hours before the deadline

Travis Sawchik: Till next time, be good and do good