Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Howdy, folks

Travis Sawchik: Looks like a great afternoon for a baseball chat (at least from the location of Bay Village, Ohio)

Travis Sawchik: Last week of the regular season …. Harper coming back … And interesting AL Cy Young race … Let’s get to it

PF: Will you miss Jose Bautista?

Travis Sawchik: I will. I know he was polarizing but he was really the first guy to break from the conventional mold of hitting … and began pulling everything to find great success. Smart dude

Prince S. Leia Fielder: Miguel Cabrera or CarGo for this last week? Both have been mostly terrible all season, both are nursing injuries, Tigers have nothing to play for so may bench Cabrera but the Rockies are facing basically all left handers. Am I just screwed?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I have CarGo in league and I think he has four LHP on the sked and the shoulder issue. I’d stay away from him

Rockie Dangerfield: All of a sudden, it seems like nobody actually wants the NL WC2.  Are the Diamondbacks just sitting around cackling to themselves about the NLDS shoo-in that the wild card game is shaping up to be?

Travis Sawchik: Well, the Diamondbacks still will probably only have like a 60%. chance to advance even by lining up their preferred pitching and with home field

Travis Sawchik: What the Diamondbacks should lobbying for is immediate implementation of this … https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-improve-the-wild-card-round/

Travis Sawchik: I love the KBO wild card round setup, and I’m surprised more commentators didn’t like the idea

Prince S. Leia Fielder: Will J-Up J-opt out?

Travis Sawchik: With a 141 wRC+, I think he will

Moltar: They haven’t announced game times yet, but I am already unhappy about daytime weekday playoff games. Why on earth would the sport want to air the most important games of the year at a time when the vast majority of viewers are unable to watch? How does that promote the game? How is that growing the audience of casual viewers? I understand the rich tradition of daytime baseball, but most of us consumers have daytime jobs to go to.

Travis Sawchik: And kids are in school …. I do like the idea of limited day playoff games, but save them for the weekend

Rick Ross: Is Salazar starting G4 for the Indians if its necessary?  Clevinger could actually face more batter than him in that game correct?

Travis Sawchik: It will be interesting to see how the Indians line up their pitching. In case you missed it, Clevinger is going to be in the bullpen for the postseason and the Indians also announced they will be employing a four-man ALDS staff, though it’s not clear who the No 4 starter will be (Tomlin? Salazar?)

Travis Sawchik: This is Clevinger’s production over the last 30 days: 0.61 ERA/1.87/1.3 WAR

Travis Sawchik: Only Kluber and Carrasco have been better on the staff

Travis Sawchik: If Clevinger is used often in the bullpen in leverage situations, it could work but I’m not sure that role exists with  Allen, Miller, Smith and Shaw (Salazar?) already around

Rick Ross: Is Kipnis starting in CF and Urshela at 3rd for the Indians against a RHP in the playoffs?

Travis Sawchik: Urshela has received more 3B playing time over the last week … And I do think Kipnis starts in CF

Travis Sawchik: Urshela may never hit but that glove ….

Travis Sawchik:

billsaints: The Rays have a lot of starting pitchers again. Honeywell will be kept down to prevent super 2 I’m sure. Must be frustrating for him and management that they can’t start their best 5…or can they?

Travis Sawchik: I think Honeywell sat in timeout because of that frustration. He’s one of the best five options. I really wish the game would come up with something to replace Super 2. MLB is the only  major sport that artificially delays the arrival of young talen t

Travis Sawchik: Well, I shouldn’t say that as I know little of the NHL practices

Corey: Tanaka opts out, y/n?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think so

Travis Sawchik: So much money in the game and he’ll be entering his Age 29 season … and who knows if the elbow will hold up if he doesn’t opt out

Robbie: Did you see the play by Simmons last night? I can’t stop watching it: https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2017/09/25/1849183283/1506320…

Travis Sawchik: Woah

Travis Sawchik: That might be worth of a post

E: Is Scherzer going to win the NL Cy Young? Anyone else have a case?

Travis Sawchik: He should be a runaway winner

Hunky Dory: Crazy that the second-best SP FA is a guy with a 5 ERA and a history of arm problems, no?

Travis Sawchik: I think the class is a little deeper than that http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/ But if you want to avoid getting lost in the 2018-19 class, then this would be the better market to test

Robbie: Who do you have for the more contested races?
NL MVP, AL MVP/Cy Young

Travis Sawchik: Three fascinating races … AL Cy Young is most interesting to me. Even the WAR data (fWAR vs. bWAR) cannot agree

ohioastrosfan: Looks like Houston – Boston for ALDS. In a 5 game series, do they pitch Verlander/Sale games 1 and then 5?

Travis Sawchik: I think that’s right. It looks like good Verlander is back

Jeff: Judge and Altuve are tied today in fWAR with 7.3, yet it is all but assumed that Altuve has the MVP wrapped up. Am I missing something?

Travis Sawchik: It’s another fascinating race due the contrast of the players and the skills … there aren’t two more different position players in terms of size

Travis Sawchik: I think some are probably remembering Judge’s post-ASG slump, but he’s rebounded pretty well

Slamboni: I know that where Darvish ends up isn’t the deciding factor in Ohtani and his decision, but if it came down to NYY vs TEX as top suitors, and Darvish returned to TEX, wouldn’t that be enough of a tiebreaker for Ohtani?

Travis Sawchik: If all other considerations are equal or cancel themselves out, familiarity in a foreign land would have to be a factor

Dane: I don’t understand what we’re fixing by trying to decrease the second WC team’s chances of advancing. If that was the goal shouldn’t we just completely eliminate the WC game? Makes the chances 0%.

I think the division winner with the worst record should have to play the second WC team in the WC game if the first WC team has the second or third best record in the league.

Travis Sawchik: If you’re the WC1 and one game or multiple games better, it seems absurd to me that you have to play in a made-for-TV 163rd game to enter the playoffs

Travis Sawchik: The idea is to promote meritocracy and reward a WC1 team that performed better over the course of a 162-game season

Travis Sawchik: The Wild Card round is a little different from the rest of the postseason as it is really a play-in game to enter the postseason field

Aladdin Sane: What is the difference between bWAR and Fangraphs’ RA9-WAR?  For example, Sale has 6.2 bWAR but 7.5 RA9-WAR.

Travis Sawchik: FanGraphs pitching WAR is basically tied to FIP, and Baseball Reference is tied more to actual run prevention that occurred

Travis Sawchik: And that underscores a really interesting part of the debate

BAEllinger: What are some desperate strategies we might see teams pull in the playoffs?

Travis Sawchik: I suspect we’ll see more focus on bullpens, and maybe one day we’ll see a reliever start a Wild Card game and try to flip the platoon advantage

Pat: New extended netting: Is this something that is going to go all the way down the 1B/3B line to the foul pole? Or something that will probably just extend to the bag on each side?

Travis Sawchik: I haven’t looked into to it, but I think probably just to the end of the infield. With Statcast data they can look at the trouble spots for foul balls (velocity, location, etc)

stever20: how historical is the run that Kluber is on right now?  15-2 1.62 ERA 23/221 bb/k ratio in 161.1 innings over 22 starts.

Travis Sawchik: Pretty historical

Travis Sawchik: I can’t remember a better run in the last 30 years, though I think Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez have probably been in that ballpark

Sandy Ravage: Let’s say MLB really did juice the ball, do they “un-juice” it next year and claim they fixed it? Or keep it and sit back and watch all the dingers?

Travis Sawchik: If they “un-juice” it they care more questions, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur are not going to let that go unnoticed. Also, HRs are generally good for the sport. So I don’t think there will be changes to the ball unless things get too out of hand (I guess you could argue they already are)

Adam: Ideal playoff system: Scrap divisions, balance schedule,  top 4 teams advance.

Travis Sawchik: It will never happen. MLB likes creating playoff races, and players like divisions and unbalanced schedule in that it reduces overall travel

Gregory: What’s the difference between historical and historic?

Travis Sawchik: [Thinking face emoji]

Travis Sawchik: Historical is something old and of interest … tied to age, I suppose. Historic is an achievement placed into context

Simmons: I can’t believe the Angels got Simmons for Newcombe.

Travis Sawchik: I think the Braves would like to have that one back

Chris: What’s the Indians outfield look like vs righties and lefties in the postseason?

Travis Sawchik: Great question

Travis Sawchik: Indians leadership is apparently meeting Wednesday to figure this out

Travis Sawchik: My best guess:

Travis Sawchik: LF: Chisenhall/Guyer (platoon). CF: Kipnis/Jackson (platoon) RF: Bruce

Travis Sawchik: Chisenahll needs to be healthy, though

Adam: Less ideal playoffs: expand to 32 teams, Every team makes it, NCAA tournament style seeding.

Travis Sawchik: And all single-game elimination

Travis Sawchik: It would be absurd but we would all watch .

Travis Sawchik: And that’s the problem with playoffs: they are more about entertainment than merit

E: I feel like the Indians have something up their sleeve if they are moving Clevinger to the pen, be interesting to see how/when they use him. Maybe they won’t anyone, including Kluber, go twice through the batting order

Travis Sawchik: If the Indians employ Clevinger as a super reliever, I like it … if he gets lost in the pen, then I don’t

Johnny5: We always hear how BA is no longer important, yet Altuve is going to win MVP based on his BA. What gives?

Travis Sawchik: To many voters it matters. It will matter less as the voting electorate changes

pirates hurdles: Daytime playoff games are much better than starting them at 830 at night when no one in the East with a job or school can stay up until the end.

Travis Sawchik: A good-old-fashioned 8 pm EST playoff game would be nice

CryinChuck: my fantasy team collapsed in the playoffs for the 3rd straight year despite finishing at the top of the regular season standings.  Once again pitching let me down.  Give me fantasy wisdom to fill the black void in my soul right now!

Travis Sawchik: TRUST THE PROCESS!

Travis Sawchik: Keep getting there and you will break through

PF: How many question about kneeling have you received today?

Travis Sawchik: This was the first!

Simmons: Is elite pitching too influential in MLB to permit short series?

Travis Sawchik: That’s one problem I have with the Wild Card format ….

Travis Sawchik: Elite pitching can warp a series and change the nature of the way the game is played during the regular season (truncated staffs, etc) .. But it’s not like the NFL (QB) or NBA (Star player) where one player can take over a series

Travis Sawchik: Or an outcome

Depressing…: http://deadspin.com/chris-archer-says-teammates-feedback-prevents-him-…

Travis Sawchik: MLB clubhouses are generally more conservative places than in NFL or NBA

Travis Sawchik: I don’t have a kneeling hot take, though, sorry

Guest: Hey Travis! Huge fan here from Israel. Ever been?

Travis Sawchik: I have not! Am I invited?

Anon: Of the 1000 or so players currently in the majors, how many names do you know?  100%?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know 100%. This would be a fun game to play to find the exact percentage but I don’t think we have the time.

E: The NBA has a similar “problem” with elite players in the playoffs. In the regular season teams will play anywhere from 8-10 guys in a night. In the playoffs teams will usually not play any more than 8. Stars go from playing 30 minutes a game to 38 in the playoffs.

Travis Sawchik: And in the NBA your best player can hypothetically take ever shot.

Travis Sawchik: LeBron/Jordan/Curry type MVP-level talents are touching the ball on every possession and making many decisions

Travis Sawchik: Imagine Kershaw throwing 80 percent of pitches in a postseason?

Travis Sawchik: Or Tom Brady only starting once every five games/

Travis Sawchik: The MLB is the most democratic of sports

Percy Miracles: I read a recent article about a company making maple bats and began wondering who pays for the bats players use? Is it the players? The team? What about minor league affiliates? I was curious if you knew

Travis Sawchik: Players generally choose and pay for their bats, I believe

Terence: Let’s not act like Altuve is only BA. He’s 3rd in AL in OBP, 4th in SLG, 2nd in SB, and plays up the middle defensive position for the best offense in baseball.

Travis Sawchik: I certainly don’t, but it’s going to be a number voters look at

Perrenial Winner: CryinChuck: You have to adapt on the fly and make roster adjustments when necessary. Winning in the playoffs is all about going with the hot hands over those that got you to the dance. (2017: Matt Olson, Tim Anderson, etc.)

Travis Sawchik: The playoffs are fun, but I almost wish there were regular season champions recognized to a greater degree and the tournament was more of a separate thing .. But we want to be entertained and have high stakes

Travis Sawchik: What I’ve learned is Americans love making decisions upon small sample sizes 😉

Simmons: Thanks for taking my question.  I think Bumgarner was an example of an elite pitcher who did take over a series, right?  I think it is every bit as large an influence as LeBron James, say.

Travis Sawchik: Bumgarner might have a greater impact on days he pitches, but he still doesn’t play every game. Interesting to consider, though .

Anon: I wish CC Sabatgia would take a knee. What’s he got to lose?

Travis Sawchik: It’s really an individual decision so I wouldn’t judge

PS: Aaron judge should win MVP, i’ll hang up and listen.

Travis Sawchik: His overall value is so close to that of Altuve but I think Judge has some trickle-down value that isn’t accounted for in that he sees more pitches and wears down opposing staffs a little more ….. On the other hand, Altuve’s production has been more meaningful in context of the winning-and-losing of games http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&…

Travis Sawchik: So if you consider Win Probablity Added, which is not a great predictive tool but helps us understand the impact of what did happen, then Altuve should probably be the frontrunner

Chaps: Is it possible for Altuve & Judge to ‘split’ the vote and allow someone else to win it?

Travis Sawchik: Like Mike Trout?

Travis Sawchik: I think Trout is going to have too many third-place votes

Big Joe Mufferaw: Jake Arrieta had a Kluber esque run

Travis Sawchik: arrieta was amazing in 2015

Travis Sawchik: Someone I overlooked that

YKnotDisco?!: Re historical pitching hot streaks – What were Arrieta’s numbers during his ~20 game dominance?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be curious to go back and look

stever20: 2 questions- Giancarlo Stanton.  Does he hit 60 homers and does he win the MVP?

Travis Sawchik: Yes, and if he does, Yes

Travis Sawchik: Stanton has great matchups this week and a trip to Coors

Travis Sawchik: ZiPs and Steamer have him hitting 2 this week … but let’s give him another

Kevin: What are the chances the defending NL MVP leads the NL in WAR and finishes outside the top 3 in NL MVP voting?

Travis Sawchik: Bryant has been so poor in clutch moments again (until recently) that you can make the case he doesn’t deserve to be in the top three

Travis Sawchik: Shouldn’t MVP voting consider the performance of who altered games with performance even if WPA is not a predictive tool? These awards are about looking back, not looking forward

Kevin: What do the Cubs do with Lester for the postseason, given how much he’s struggled since returning from the DL? Do they still pitch him game 1 regardless?

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&…

Travis Sawchik: Last 30 days for Cubs pitching, hard to justify a starting spot for Lester

Moltar: The Mets have announced that they will not make changes to their medical or strength/conditioning staffs, including retaining the controversial Conor Barwis, the football trainer brought in by Jeff Wilpon who charges players for “voluntary” private workouts and was credited with the bulking up of Syndergaard and Cespedes. Is that not insane? If you were a free agent, would the multiple decades of extreme medical mismanagement be a cause of concern over joining the Mets?

Travis Sawchik: Mets need to do something differently here, at least for the sake of appearances

Back to back Champs : Thanks FG peeps for helping me achieve this great honor.  Now what do I do until April 2018?

Travis Sawchik: Keep reading!

Travis Sawchik: Offseason is a great time to research and separate from the pack

Kenny Three: If Cubs clinch the division, they’ll start on the road at Washington. How would you lineup the rotation? Is Lester starting Game 4 based on recent performance or is he starting Game 1 or 2 to combat the lefty heavy lineup?

Travis Sawchik: Lefties are slashing .295/.340/.558 against Lester since Aug. 1.

Travis Sawchik: Is there a place for him? He’s been a great postseason pitcher but ….

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: It is about time that someone in Major League Baseball took a stand in the national anthem debate. Now that there has been a first mover, do you predict more Major Leaguers will get involved in exercising their First Amendment rights similarly? And when do you expect Major League Baseball and its clubs will step up and make statements on the matter?

Travis Sawchik: Individuals should do what they want to do, what they feel compelled to do, within their rights. I don’t know what good MLB/clubs making a statement would do. This is already a divided, polarized country.

Big Joe Mufferaw: In the 1 game playoff, what would your strategy be for the yankees? Severino for as long as he gets in trouble, Green fireman, D-Rob, Betances, Chapman to wrap it up?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees are in great shape for the Wild Card game, and really, the postseason

enjoymoreradio: The Indians have a 10.01 K/9 with 6 home games (MIN, CHW) to go. Assuming they play nine innings in each, they need 58 Ks to be the first team ever to have a K/9 greater than 10. Can they do it?

Travis Sawchik: One issue is Tomlin might be starting twice this week and what kind of work is Kluber going to get in in the final week?

Connie Mac N’ Cheese: To be clear, are you suggesting that Lackey is the #4 pitcher for the Cubs in the playoffs and Lester is left off the roster?

Travis Sawchik: What I’m saying is I would be having a really hard time with that No 4 starter spot

Travis Sawchik: But Lester has been really poor lately, obviously

Travis Sawchik: I would have a spot for Lester on the postseason roster

Jordan: Kershaw’s entire 2014 was very similar to this Kluber streak.

Chris Tracy: Kershaw last year

Travis Sawchik: Kershaw always

Travis Sawchik: It’s closing time. I have to write for you. Thanks for stopping by everyone! Until next week, do good and be good