Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings, everyone. Thanks for being here today. Let’s begin Sawchik Chat VII …

Moltar: Travis, I’ve been home recovering from nose surgery since wednesday and I’m going insane from boredom. How do MLB players deal with their recovery time before rehab from all the various surgeries they get? Anything I can do to stem the boredom for the next couple days before I can go back to work?

Travis Sawchik: I know Pirates pitchers recovering from TJ or other surgery/injuries at the club’s complex on Florida had a trivia team in Bradenton, Fla. …But, yeah, boredom being away from teammates and competitive is probably one of the more difficult parts of rehab for players

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Who makes it to a playoff game first at some point Twins or the Reds? Why?

Travis Sawchik: Twins have Buxton and Sano, and their potential, and no Cubs in their neighborhood. That’s a better outlook, I think. I would have liked to have seen them add De Leon this offseason

Q-Ball: Does the new CBA, with the more uniform IFA slotting, hurt a team like the Pirates, who have made a real investment in DR relative to other teams?

Travis Sawchik: Pirates have rarely been big spenders in DR, though were more about over-slotting under the old draft rules. But I agree with John Manuel that some of the new bonus caps and slots hurt teams that really want to invest in research and development.

Jasse: Kendrys Morales good for 30/100 in Toronto? Does he bat in between Donaldson and Jose Bautista to break up the lineup a bit?

Travis Sawchik: While I understand the criticism of the Blue Jays rushing in the arms of Morales, in that ballpark I think he’s a decent 30/100 bet for 2017. The Statcast data supports his last two seasons — a lot of quality contact

Tim: Thoughts on Alex Cobb for this year two years removed from tommy john?

Travis Sawchik: I was a big Cobb fan before his injury. If he still has that changeup he’s still going to be effective

Zonk: There are some ML-quality FA still available, including Joe Blanton, Matt Weiters, Doug Fister. Are they just waiting for a ST injury at this point? Do you have any insight into why Joe Blanton, who would be useful to like 15 teams, is unemployed?

Travis Sawchik: I’ve done my best here at FG to get Blanton signed. I have no idea why he remains on the market, unless his ask is outrageous. It does seem like he could help at least half the teams in baseball

BucsFan: How many years until a team other than the Cubs wins the NL Central?

Travis Sawchik: 20? In all seriousness, the Cubs should own the division for the foreseeable future (say, the next six years)– if their pitching holds up. That’s a real question as they haven’t developed a ton of impact arms. Now, they can fill voids in free agency but they have to have the right match there and win the bidding. The Pirates and Cardinals should still be competitive enough to win a division in the not-too-distant future if a few things break their way. But Cubs looks like they are in a position to win multiple WS titles

Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: I like my baseball games quick. A 2:40 pitchers’ duel with a 2-1 final is my kind of game. Won’t shrinking the strike zone make games longer (though with greater offense)? Is that really desirable? As someone who watches 140+ games a year, regular season 3:15+ games really drag.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I’m with you. The idea of shrinking the zone seems to be at odds with the commish’s desire to see pace of play quickened. Beyond the total time of game, a shrinking zone is going to mean more stress situations for pitchers — which will likely mean more deliberation between pitches in addition to pitching changes, etc

Thomas: Hey Travis, great job so far! I have a bunch of guys I want to keep, however there are only five keeper spots available. 5 x 5 rotisserie, keeper cost in parentheses and can be kept for a maximum of three years. The locks appear to be Bryant (4th round, 2nd year) and C. Seager (21st round, 2nd year). I’m deciding between Bogaerts (13th round, 2nd year), G. Sanchez (11th round, 1st year), Bregman (11th round, 1st year), Pollock (10th round, 2nd year), Rich Hill (24th (!) round, 1st year), and Yu Darvish (9th round, 1st year) to round out my final three. I’m leaning Bregman, Hill, and Bogaerts, however I really also want Sanchez. What say you?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks! And keep Rich Hill! I’d also find a spot for Sanchez, probably over Bregman

rustydude: Reading thru Cameron’s “10 Worst Transactions” piece, the list doesn’t seem all that bad (or worsty). Is that your opinion? And if so, is it an indication that teams overall are not making as bad a transactions as they did 2 or 3 years ago?

Travis Sawchik: Yes, I think it difficult to find poor transactions and decision making. Even if you don’t believe front offices are ‘smarter’ today (I do, and I think many do) they are thinking in very similar ways, and conducting business in similar ways

Travis Sawchik: That was probably the most difficult ’10 worst transactions piece’ Mr. Cameron has ever had to research and write

Erik: The only thing that would quicken the pace of the game without hurting its integrity or decreasing offense would be to cut out commercial breaks right? When is MLB coming to Netflix?

Travis Sawchik: Keep batters in the box! I felt like MLB did a better job of this in 2015 when it was a fresh focus, and then they decided to get rid of the fines …. How much TV/video media is going to be streamed vs. cable in, say, 20 years? Neftlix would do well to try to buy some pro sports media rights, I think

ROBOCOP: With considerations to stats and health, who do you think has a better season, Stanton or Harper?

Travis Sawchik: Harper

Travis Sawchik: He has a 10-win season in his not-too-distant pass … and has proven he can stay healthy for a full season. I really want to see a full season from Stanton

Zack: Shrinking the strike zone would just create more walks, not necessarily more hits right?

Travis Sawchik: More walks, and more hits since there would be more favorable counts, which relate to better BA/OBP/SLG….And perhaps pitchers would be forced to groove more pitches in the center of the zone

Alex: Do you see Bartolo Colon and/or Jaime Garcia playing well enough for Atlanta to flip them at the deadline to a starter needy contender?

Travis Sawchik: Sure, it’s possible … but I wouldn’t expect significant returns

Mt Lebo Blue Devil: Interesting articles on “stars and scrubs” and parity. Other than building a big ballpark to maximize the value of young player skills, isn’t “stars and scrubs” won’t teams like AZ always push to compete when they have a couple stars and tread water or sell off otherwise?

Travis Sawchik: Hey, Neighbor! Stars-and-Scrubs is tough for most teams to practice, especially when expected stars like Greinke and Miller (?) don’t perform well. There is so much risk tied in up in a few players

Jones: How do you see Matt Kemp performing? He’s lost 30 lbs.

Travis Sawchik: I’m usually hesitant to put much stock in ‘Best Shape of my Life Stories.’ Did Kemp not eat a single serving of carbs this offseason?

Tre: Where does Moncada’s potential rank in comparison to the likes of Correa, Betts, Seager, Machado?

Travis Sawchik: I’d say below, and somewhat significantly below, since he cannot play shortstop (like 3 of those mentioned) and he does not have the bat-to-ball skills of Betts … Still, he’s a great add for Chicago

Randal Savage: Any chance the Ray’s trade Archer before the season starts?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so, but if things go south for the Rays his name will come up at the deadline again

Peak: What does Margot’s peak look like? Marte?

Travis Sawchik: I could see that … And that peak would make the Padres very pleased

Nicole: Tito has named Yan Gomes the Indians starting catcher. Was it the right decision? Also, what is a realistic expectation of Gomes this season? I highly doubt he will ever repeat his 2014.

Travis Sawchik: Players typically don’t lose their jobs to injury, but if he doesn’t perform he’ll quickly lose playing time as the Indians know they have another option behind him

Rich : Value ranking Paxton- Gausman-Nola – Richards – Dynasty keeper- thanks

Travis Sawchik: Paxton-Nola-Richards-Gausman

Aaron: In your stars-and-scrubs article, the thing that stuck out most to me was that the Rangers won their division with less than 30 WAR, that seems incredible. Would love to see an article on how rare this is/what has to happen for this to even be possible.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks. I will put this down on the idea/research list

James : Indians fan here… Am I right or wrong in thinking the AL West is going to be incredibly interesting this year? Rangers got super lucky last year by the projections, the Mariners made some interesting moves, the Angels have Trout, and the Astros are goooood. Am I wrong to think the Mariners are the dark horse here?

Travis Sawchik: Oh, it’s a fascinating division. Every team but the A’s seems to have a path. I like the Astros, myself

Ben: I agree with your assessment regarding the 10 worst transaction list, but don’t you think this is a byproduct of this being a terrible FA class preceding two pretty excellent ones? It seems pretty universally believed that free agency is an inefficient way to build a team and I see no reason to believe this has or will change.

Travis Sawchik: There were fewer opportunities to sign a really large, really bad contract this offseason, FA is really inefficient, generally, unless we see fewer young stars sign extensions that buyout arb and free agency years and then we have more 27-28 year old impact guys hit free agency

Sonny: What does ownership/FO trashing a player on the roster do to a clubhouse? Can’t recall a recent example from Pitt but Levine/Betances is awful

Travis Sawchik: It can create some bitterness … but ultimately players have financial motivation to go out and perform at their top levels.

Matt: Travis – why aren’t you celebrating President’s Day?

Travis Sawchik: Enemies of the People (all journalists, right?) do not celebrate government holidays

Erik: What player’s 2017 will have the largest effect on his Hall of Fame chances? Someone with a year or two left who has a solid but far from guaranteed case for induction, like Chase Utley? Or someone in his early 30s who needs a couple more 4-WAR seasons to have a good chance, like Dustin Pedroia? Any others?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting question. What does Felix Hernandez have left? He’s only 30 and has 154 career wins … but his stuff really fell off, of course. Jeff wrote a good piece on Felix last week

Chip: Will Buxton blossom or possibly become a DL frequent could have been?

Travis Sawchik: Blossom. The Trouts and Bryants have spoiled us … not every player has a smooth path to stardom

fgjghhj: Does Tyler Glasnow make 30+ starts this year?

Travis Sawchik: No. I’d put over under at 18

Travis Sawchik: 18.5

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Any post hype prospects you feel that are just ready to explode this year? George Springer just seems like he’s ready to put it all together since he has the tools and the team around him.

Travis Sawchik: Profar was a former No. 1-rated prospect, and said to have outstanding makeup. I have to believe there is a quality player there with health and opportunity

Jack: What does it take for Nomar Mazara to become an all star next year?

Travis Sawchik: Keep being you, Nomar

Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: The Zach Walters Appreciation Guild is here to flood your chat with earnestness. Zach Walters is now in minor league camp with the Reds! 94-ish wRC+ projection from a UTIL between ZiPS and Steamer! That’s pretty alright!

Travis Sawchik: Indeed!

Steve: I ask this as a former newspaper sports writer myself. How did you feel about writing game stories? I always felt they were pointless, and it’s one of many reasons newspapers are failing.

Travis Sawchik: I have mixed emotions about the game story, but they nearly obsolete in the TV/digital media age. I think there is still value in a great game story, but how many of those are being written? The idea of a game story, and the resources devoted to it, should probably be rethought.

Travis Sawchik:

Dave Kingman: Where can C Seager go from his 2016 season? Might he run more?

Travis Sawchik: 7.5 fWAR seasons are pretty rare, so I’d expect to be good but not elite as he was a year ago

Matt: Tell me something that will make me feel good about Joey Gallo.

Travis Sawchik: He puts on a great batting practice!

Pat: Hey Travis, just wanted to let you know how much I’ve enjoyed all your work so far. As for a question, how likely do you think it is that the Jays make the wildcard game again this year?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Pat. I think they are going to be one of a number of teams in the WC mix. So health, would help. The good news is they have Russ Martin who is always in the playoffs (seriously, look it up!). I think Bautista is going to be better

Craig: Do you still believe in Blake Swihart as a catcher? What is his upside at this point?

Travis Sawchik: I do like him as a catcher … Unless these reported yips are a real thing

Cards fan: Rizzo for correa…rizzo is $7 more expensive in draft cash. Pull the trigger and get rizzo?

Travis Sawchik: Keep Correa

Colin: How long is Billy Hamilton’s leash at the leadoff spot, and do you see anything from last season that makes you think he’ll keep it?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. There has to be a more creative way to use, Hamilton right? I’d consider bringing him in as a pinch-runner early in games and then leave him the lineup to artificially improve is on-base presence

Chip: Does Moncada start the season in AAA? IF so, when does he get called for good?

Travis Sawchik: There is no reason for the White Sox to rush Moncada. I’d start him in 3A

Mitchell: As someone who was around the Pirates a lot, what do you like and dislike about Chad Kuhl heading into this year?

Travis Sawchik: Kuhl should be a solid, back-end innings eater. His two-seamer is legit, the competitiveness is there, but the slider was inconsistent and he might not have a quality third pitch

Clebot: Any concern to be had with Corey Kluber yet? His insane workload last season plus him already being pushed back after opening day has me nervous…

Travis Sawchik: I suppose concern should always be elevated with any pitcher working a lot in October, but it seems like the Indians are being smart with easing him in this spring.

Kristen: If Gallo and Profar tank, are the Rangers in trouble? They’d be left with an extremely old roster thanks to having zero high-ceiling prospects in the upper-minors leaving only Mazara and Odor as productive pieces over the long-term.

Travis Sawchik: The Rangers rotation has quite a few question marks, too. I think it’s going to be tough for them to repeat in the West

Chet: Do you see a small uptick in production from Addison Russell this season? I’m thinking a .255/.335/.445 season with 25/95 is in line with what we should expect, do you agree?

Travis Sawchik: I like Russell a lot. I think he’s capable of that slash line, he’s going to hit

The Duda: You take fantasy questions? 10tm H2H dynasty. Trade Rizzo, Marte, and Sano for Arenado, Bregman, and Upton or Yelich. Do either?

Travis Sawchik: Sure! I love an Arenado-Bregman-Yelich return

Rickey O’Sunnyvale: What’s your take on the mystery that is Joe Blanton? I keep expecting him to pop up back in LA.

Travis Sawchik: It’s the great mystery among FAs, for me. We know why Wieters is not generating much interest. We’re not sure what’s going on with Blanton

Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: Guild Opinion: any recap that focuses on the game won’t be interesting to me. If, on the other hand, the recap is not about the *game*, but some outside aspect that involved the game, it’d be interesting to The Guild (e.g.: Cubs G7 gamer, which was as much about the franchise as the game; Brandon Moss’s June 2012 games after the ‘F*** it I’ll hit it hard’ decision).

Travis Sawchik: I think you make some excellent points. The challenge is to get beyond the box score and what everyone saw on the TV broadcast and add some reporting and insight that is informative and interesting … One big problem, though, is newspapers have really unforgiving post-game deadlines. Writing an interesting gamer off a day game start is much easier than a night time start

Anthony: Just wanted to say that your article today on competitive balance was fantastic. You note that Manfred seemsb relatively unconcerned with competitive balance. Should be more concerned in your opinion, and what could he do to address this?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks! We can understand why it’s not an immediate focus – the Royals and Indians have been in the World Series the lat two seasons – but there seems to be little to zero focus on balance. I’d allow for more financial flexibility in the draft … and an international draft might help

Chet: Do you think this is the season that Miguel Sano bursts onto the national scene? With 600 AB’s, I really don’t think a 40+ home run season is in play for Sano, do you agree?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know where Sano is going to play, defensively, but I like the power-patience combo

Jack: How long will adrian beltre continue to be adrian beltre?

Travis Sawchik: Goo question. I think 2017 might be it

Ryan: I love historical stories where sports and major cultural events collide. Like Jackie Robinson and race in America. Do you have any favorites from the baseball world?

Travis Sawchik: I might have to reflect on this one … Robinson is the hugely important historical event, in which baseball was ahead of the country ….Non-baseball: Owens and the 1936 Olympics

Matt: O/U 28.5 HR for G Sanchez?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a good line, I will take the under …but I think he’ll be in the 25-27 range

Kevin : Who plays the majority of CF for the Cubs this season? Jon Jay? Albert Almora? A player with a non-alliterative name?

Travis Sawchik: Heyward’s offensive issues and contract might justify more time in center

Britt: Will Trevor Bauer ever reach his pre-Draft potential and become a front line starter?

Travis Sawchik: Front line? He seems too inconsistent and to lack the necessary command

Dylan: Would you keep Betances or Strasburg in a 12- team 5 player keeper league?

Travis Sawchik: I will still roll the dice that I can get 200 innings from Strasburg

Rob: Rick Hahn mentioned recently that a significant trade was close to happening but was rejected at the ownership level. Do you think that may have been a deal involving Pitt?

Travis Sawchik: No idea. But Quintana’s contract is soooo team friendly

El Duderino: I was stuck between drafting Stroman or Nola this year (in a non-keeper). Which would you pick (W, Whip, ERA, QS)

Travis Sawchik: Nola. For starters, he doesn’t have to pitch in the AL East … and he was really unlucky last year and still effective

DDD: Seeing G. Sanchez in the chat and realizing it’s not Gaby Sanchez… #PiratesFlashback

Travis Sawchik: Heckuva 1B platoon partner in 2013!

El Duderino: How much of a “Bust” is Matt Wieters? He hit .355/.454/.600/1.053 22 year old and was the #1 prospect in Baseball.

Travis Sawchik: Well, he’s at least had a MLB career. So I wouldn’t say he’s a bust or at least a significant one, but, yeah, you’d ideally want more out of a top 10 pick, Many of the ranking and expectations we place upon prospects are unfair

Sam: To Ryan,

Sam: The Bronx is burning in the 70s was really something, when you look at that Cris Chambliss homer in context. Too bad that ESPN show wasn’t that good

Travis Sawchik: I have nothing on this, but I will share …

Rick: Reddick seemed to be taking a step forward until he got hurt and traded. Seems Houston is a nice fit, even in platoon situation. A good buy low or not?

Travis Sawchik: The Astros didn’t buy extremely low, but I agree he could produce nice value there

PL: Why does Oakland keep signing middling guys like Matt Joyce and Trevor Plouffe?

Travis Sawchik: If you believe in Joyce’s swing adjustment – there might be more there, and he could also be flipped

Matt: When you accepted your position at FG, did they warn you about all of us weirdos in the chats?

Travis Sawchik: Was it Barry Zito that said “‘Normal people’ scare me” He might have been on to something

PL: Could Oakland’s rotation be sneaky good this year?

Travis Sawchik: I like Manaea. I want to see a full season of second-half Manaea

Dylan: Defend the Rockies’ decision to play Desmond at 1st base

Travis Sawchik:

Arnie: Indian fan here. Do you think Bradley Zimmer could be their centerfielder by the all star break?

Travis Sawchik: Could, sure. It’s an area where the club could improve

Travis Sawchik: Well, folks, that chirping marks the end of today’s chat. Sorry I couldn’t get to all the questions. Thanks for contributing/reading. Same time/place next week for Chat No. 8