Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

Travis Sawchik: Since we last spoke, real baseball games have been played

Travis Sawchik: I think we are all feeling better …

TMW: Miguel Sano’s hands look higher again like they were in 2016. K rates back this up (8K in 14PA). He’s gotten two hits (HRs) but was pretty late on one of them. Am I imagining it?

Travis Sawchik: I will have to take a look, but for Sano to truly be an offensive force he needs to get those K rates down a few ticks

James: Could Altuve and Correa be the best middle infield combo ever?

Travis Sawchik: Ever is a high bar. But, yeah, it’s possible

James: is the Smoak grand slam on Boone first and foremost?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s also give Smoak some credit

Travis Sawchik: There might be some doubt over whether the 2017 Smoak was real. There is less doubt today

Matty P: Are you as excited about Adam Eaton as I am? Nationals lineup is so deep with him leading off

Travis Sawchik: Eaton is essentially a major offseason addition for the NL East’s best team

Travis Sawchik: It’s a big deal

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Who will be the best Astros starter at the end of the year?

Travis Sawchik: Gerrit Cole off to the early lead …

Travis Sawchik: I’m really curious to see what Cole does in Houston. Astros have done a good job of getting the most out of players and being around Verland might not hurt

Travis Sawchik: But I’ll say Verlander is their most valuable arm

Travis Sawchik: What a team

Greg Bird: 🙁

Travis Sawchik: Very sad

Travis Sawchik: Starting to feel like Nick Johnson Story Part II

Daniel: Gabe Kapler, eh?  Think he’s gonna get better with experience, or is he hell-bent on finding the limit for transferring playoff strategy to the regular season grind? #BeBold

Travis Sawchik: Fascinating question! The game warps in the playoffs due to the urgency and off days …. But how much of that short-season play (which is designed to be more optimized) transfers over to the marathon of a season?

Travis Sawchik: There’s probably a middle ground there and I think Kapler is smart enough to adapt

baycommuter: Ohtani wasn’t hitting the catcher’s glove yesterday but getting swing and misses anyhow and only walked 1. Will he have trouble once they get better scouting reports on him?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not too worried about Ohtani

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: Maybe Ohtani was just trolling us/lowering expectations in March

Travis Sawchik: Stuff was legit

Mike: What do you make of Gabe Kapler’s “interesting” first series?

Travis Sawchik: I generally favor inspired managing. But Kapler might need a 27-man roster for what he’s trying to pull off

Its Me: Did you see that throw out by Gary Sánchez on Granderson? One of the best throw outs I’ve seen since Pudge

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t but Sanchez has the best pop time per Statcast in baseball

Travis Sawchik: Francisco Mejia has an 80-arm so I’m curious to eventually see what he can to do behind the plate, too

Travis Sawchik: There’s so much compelling young talent in the game right now

Ed: Are the Mariners cursed? Zunino pulls an oblique before game one and then Cruz falls down the dugout steps in game two. What else could go wrong for this team?

Travis Sawchik: Yes. Ichiro was brought back to break it

Travis Sawchik: I saw some of Marjama in the Paxton start. His receiving didn’t help

Jim Fox: can i ask a FG site specific question?

Travis Sawchik: All questions are welcome but not all will/can be answered

stever20: Is the Nats picking up Matt Adams one of the best under the radar signings of the offseason?  Provides protection should Zimmerman not be what he was last year

Travis Sawchik: Nice pickup. It seemed there were like 20 Adams-type players available this offseason but prudent of Nats to acquire one

ChrisZ: I am seriously worried about Ichiro….I do not know hwat he will do post baseball.
Disappear into thin air like Luke Skywalker?

Travis Sawchik: Oh, he’s never leaving

Travis Sawchik: Dude is robbing home runs at 44

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Shouldn’t the Mets be trying to bat Brandon Nimmo first every day? Mickey C. is already sitting him in favor of Lagares, which doesn’t bode well for when Conforto gets back.

Travis Sawchik: I’m all for seeing what Nimmo can do

Travis Sawchik: Plus, as I’ve written about, batted balls in play are down by about 20 percent over the last decade

Travis Sawchik: So the Mets are a team that can aggressively try and add an extra bat in the field

Travis Sawchik: I think CF opportunities are down the most, like 27%

Travis Sawchik: Mets seem to love to find ways to block intriguing young talent

Travis Sawchik: Pretty excited about where Conforto is in his comeback

TJ McShannigans: Berrios -are we looking at the beginning of a special season. He was so effective -no one could square up on him, that curve balls spins

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think he’s winning a Cy Young Award this year, but I love the pitcher. He could be a top-15 AL starter. Three plus pitches and command

Travis Sawchik: He’s one reason — and 57 games against Tiger/Royals/W.Sox — that I have the Twins as the No. 2 wild card

Ben Dejo: Do you think it should be a prerequisite for a manager to speak Spanish? Considering the demographics of the game today, it seems pretty crazy that any wouldn’t.

Travis Sawchik: No, but it wouldn’t hurt

Travis Sawchik: Seems like most managers should be trying to pick up at least some basic Spanish

bosoxforlife: How far has Gabe Kapler just set back the analytical approach to managing?

Travis Sawchik: Lot of Kapler questions!

Travis Sawchik: I think he was probably too aggressive but let’s also let this play out a little bit. “Traditional” managing leaves much to be desired

Travis Sawchik: Also, the Phillies are a team that is probably wise to try and experiment in 2018. They are probably not quite there but yet they are interesting and could be in the mix …  so extracting every drop of leverage might help

Ern: What is your biggest takeaway from the early weekend?

Travis Sawchik: The game’s march to TTO is relentless

Travis Sawchik: I assume the big trends will continue: more launch and home runs, more strikeouts, more velo, more innings by bullpens

April Stats!: I believe that we are all looking forward to people overreacting to SSS April results

Travis Sawchik: And now we can overreact to SSS March results

Martin Gore: Just one series but the Giants look pretty awful so far?

Travis Sawchik: Giants look pretty damn old

Travis Sawchik: Just one series, but they’re not going to get any younger at 3B, RF, LF …. Bumgarner loss is huge, Melancon out indefinitely

Travis Sawchik: They could finish last in division

Jim: Did you get a chance to discuss Taillon’s “new pitch”? Not sure if it is, but in spring some were seeing a cutter

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t go there but I would like to see him rely on his great curve more often. I think he’ll beat his CB usage of the last two seasons

Billy Beane: So… This Shohei Ohtani fellow might be pretty good.

Travis Sawchik: That was legit stuff

Travis Sawchik: Ohtani and Trout and Cozart and health can get Angels to postseason

kevinthecomic: How would you see the rumored Braun-for-Kemp swap being structured?

Travis Sawchik: https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-gm-shoots-down-braun-kemp-rumor/c-270…

Travis Sawchik: Doesn’t sound like there’s anything to it

Q-Ball: Jose Quintana gave up tons of hard contact yesterday, and sat 89-90 with the FB.  Cause for concern?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a pretty big drop from 92.1 mph last season but it’s early

Travis Sawchik: (We have to use the early disclaimer for at least the next month)

Lou: Is the Philly media and fanbase the worst possible place for a manager like Gabe Kapler?

Travis Sawchik: Hey, Lou, I like a lot of the Philly media folks …but the fans booed Santa so analytics is going to have an uphill battle when it fails

Burner Account: What did you think of that Dee Gordon bomb last night? Dude had three dingers this spring and has been working with Griffey the kid.

Percent chance he hits 10 homers this year?

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: Shoot that didn’t capture Jeff’s split screen with the Griffey finish …

Travis Sawchik: I have Gordon at under … but I am encouraged by his early defense in CF. I think he can be a difference maker out there with some more experience

Bernie the slide guy: What was your favorite Opening Weekend home run?

Travis Sawchik: Stanton’s 117 mph oppo shot

Travis Sawchik: Can’t wait to see what he does in a full season at new Yankee

Travis Sawchik: he can break his bat and hit balls out to RCF there

Colin: Mitch Haniger looks awesome when healthy. Is he always going to be on the cusp of a DL stint or are his past injuries just bad luck?

Travis Sawchik: He looked great this weekend. Though, facing Tyler Olson’s arm slot and left-handedness is pretty favorable for him

Tlaloc: The most surprising player to hit 30 homers this year will be…

Travis Sawchik: Eric Hosmer

Travis Sawchik: [kidding]

Travis Sawchik: I’m curious about Brandon Drury

Travis Sawchik: In part because of ballpark

Travis Sawchik: Basically just find a list of swing-changers and go down the list

Travis Sawchik: Jeff Mathis would be most surprising

Travis Sawchik: Or Dee Gordon

Travis Sawchik: Ha

Paper Clips: I like Tyler Mahle but he has a rough first matchup. What does his outlook look like for the season?

Travis Sawchik: I like Mahle to become a quality mid-rotation piece … but maybe not this April

Travis Sawchik: Gotta like having command of four pitches

Travis Sawchik: Cincy is so brutal to pitch in

Travis Sawchik: Most concerning are his recent milb GB% which have been around 40

TKDC: Should MLB send out an official memo that it is okay to bunt at anytime, no matter the inning or score?

Travis Sawchik: Or
when fielding four outfielders

Colin: I think Detroit’s offense is going to surprise a lot of people (healthier Miggy and improving youngsters), but oh man that pitching…

Travis Sawchik: Miggy looks healthy. But it’s going to be a long year in Detroit

Travis Sawchik: A long five years

Steve: Played chicken at SS in deep pts lg: options are Marte, Duffy, Beckham, Swanson, Kike, Solarte, Ahmed, and once he is eligible – Ed Escobar. Who would you snag?

Travis Sawchik: I like Solarte

Travis Sawchik: He should offer position versatility, too

Marcus Banks: Luis Severino is the best pitcher in NYC.

Travis Sawchik: Good talk show debate

Dave Kingman: Enough with the “Philly Booed Santa Claus”. That was one game in 1968. Was so long ago Mickey Mantle was still playing. How about harshing on Cleveland fans for 10 cent beer night or the disco demolition game in Chicago?

Travis Sawchik: Fair. How about the Michael Irvin injury?

Sir Nerdlington: Re: Extra Innings

Instead of putting a runner on 2nd or playing 17 innings, why not just play 12 and call it a tie?

2/3rds of all extra inning games end by the 11th meaning, there would be ~60 ties in the season or 4 per team.

Travis Sawchik: Yes! I’m all for ties

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baseball-and-the-tie-game-a-logical-ma…

P: How long of a leash does Moran have right now? Feels like there’s a lot of swing and miss at the moment.

Travis Sawchik: He should have a pretty long leash

Travis Sawchik: 2017 swing changer, part of Cole return

Ontilt1377: Musgrove just hit DL 🙁       Will Searge work his magic on Musgrove eventually?   or move on…

Travis Sawchik: I think Musgrove is OK

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: But I guess it’s something to keep an eye on

Travis Sawchik: Musgrove was great in the bullpen last year … curious to see him stay there, actually

Todd: Give up on Billy Hamilton?

Travis Sawchik: Hey, I tried to see Billy on an idea that would help him, Reds

Travis Sawchik: It does feel like Hamilton could be of more help to a team with a larger outfield to cover, maybe the Reds should explore returns

Big Joey: Albies, Jose Ramirez and Lindor are killing me in my league!!! They’re my AVG guys and they’re hitting like .110 over 45 combined ABs!!! Tell me good things will happen soon

Travis Sawchik: It’s the second day of April!

Steve: What are McMahon’s prospects for regular duty at Coors?  I have both him and CarGo competing for my UTIL slot. Which one has the more productive season?

Travis Sawchik: McMahon should get a long look this year

Travis Sawchik: Rockies had major corner issues and did little to address them

Travis Sawchik: Rockies were last or next to last in wRC+ at LF, RF and 1B last season, I believe

Llewelyn: Trout is clearly the best player in baseball, but I find no one is more fun to watch hit than Correa, he just seems to be able to drive every pitch in every count

Travis Sawchik: ‘Fun’ is subjective but I’m more of an Altuve guy

Travis Sawchik: All the 5-foot-3 dynamo does is square up pitches with every swing

Travis Sawchik: Buxton playing CF is fun. Lindor is always fun. Stanton going 117 mph opposite way is fun. …

Moltar: What if any of Kapler’s foibles can be blamed on “analytics” and not just inexperience and making bad decisions?

Travis Sawchik: Is it clear how many of these decisions were scripted pre-game?

Pirate pitching: When will the Buccos turn to Tyler Glasnow as a SP?  His start in the bullpen simply a get your command in order kind of thing?

Travis Sawchik: He has to prove he can command the ball to some degree to return to rotation. If he could become a dominant reliever, that’s not so bad

Mitch Haniger MVP: See Harper’s HRs? One with leg kick one without?

Travis Sawchik: Harper ditched the leg-kick last season on occasion

Depodesta: Do you think it would be wise for the A’s to make a few more rebuild trades this year to line up their window with all their TJ recoverees? Obviously Lowrie, but maybe Graveman, Treinent, and even maybe Manaea too (who could potentially bring back a lot with a strong first half and esp. considering next year is his first arb year)?

Travis Sawchik: Possibly. It’s early. They could be competitive if enough things break right in 2018

GERB: 10c Beer Night #NeverForget

Travis Sawchik: Great in theory, not executed well in practice

Travis Sawchik: In 2018 dollars, that would be $0.51 beer night

Travis Sawchik: Man, that was a bad idea. Nevermind

Andrew: You’re getting carried away with the Stanton at YS3 stuff. Judge has considerably more power and wasn’t “breaking his bat and hitting them out to RCF” there last season. Daren Wilman also took Stanton’s flyballs from last season and found he would’ve hit the exact same number of HRs had he been playing at YS3.

Travis Sawchik: Too many variables to extrapolate 2017 numbers to a difference ballpark

Travis Sawchik: For starters, each ballpark has a different “atmosphere” and RCF can change batter incentives, approach, etc

Travis Sawchik: Heck, it could help him stay on ball better and drive more balls to pull side

Travis Sawchik: There’s a reason it has a 124 HR factor for RHH and Marlins Park has an 80 number

GY: Chances jose Martinez becomes a top 8-10 fantasy 1B? Seems like hes going to play every day in the middle of the cardinals lineup…

Travis Sawchik: He has monster upside

Josh Hader: Am I more valuable in the rotation or the bullpen?

Travis Sawchik: Tough question

Travis Sawchik: For most young guys, you’d say rotation and you’d hate to preclude a 23-year-old from developing into a starter

Travis Sawchik: But with his limited pitch mix, and electric fastball, maybe bullpen works for right now

Yeti: How are you feeling about Bauer’s start yesterday? I noticed he was basically throwing a knuckle curve / 4 seam all game. What happened to his new slider?

Travis Sawchik: I think he threw a handful of sliders. Curveball looked like it picked up where it left off. Command some fastballs, missed with others. He was also squeezed at times and had that bad-bounce hit over Alonso …

Travis Sawchik: All in all, encouraging first start

Babe Lincoln: Ties are for Europe.  Wins/losses for America.  How many hockey fans wan to bring back ties?

Travis Sawchik: Ties would be extremely rare and what’s the use in overextending and exhausting bullpens in the age of bullpens and stretched rosters?

Dylan: Out of all the teams that “tanked” this offseason, the Giants chose to add declining veterans. Couldn’t you argue that the Giants were the team that needed to rebuild the most? No farm system, and no good pre-arb talent

Travis Sawchik: You could. Could also argue to zag when all others zig

Stolen Bases: After watching Pillar steal 2nd, 3rd and home it got me thinking about if stolen bases are in fact underrated. We know there has to be a 75% success rate, but could there be more to the stolen base such as the negative effect on defense and pitchers that would make the stolen base a slightly more affective tool than once thought?

Travis Sawchik: This would require a deep dive, but, yeah, there’s more value to steals than by success rate

E: 10c beer night would be the same as ~51c beer night now

Bert: First bullpen arm to fall off- in St. Louis or Philly?

Travis Sawchik: Philly

Mario Mendoza: How do you think the Domingo/Braun/Thames situation shakes out?

Travis Sawchik: I want to see more Eric Thames. Braun is the guy I’d try to move

pinstripe: How come Berrios was allowed to pitch a complete game? Are the twins known for not following this new science of arm health and third time through thing or is it an anomaly?

Travis Sawchik: C’mon Twins!

Travis Sawchik: There are always exceptions to rules

Travis Sawchik: Alright, folks

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for stopping by! Good to have some real on-field baseball matters to discuss

Travis Sawchik: Until next week, be good and do good