Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Happy Acuna Era

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

Kyle: Will Acuna be in the HOF in 25 years?

Travis Sawchik: Debuting at such a young age is actually a pretty big deal for HoF chances

Travis Sawchik: Acuna has about a 10% chance according to our own Jay Jaffe https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance…

Travis Sawchik: But let’s let him play a bit first

Bort: When do you think we see Jung Ho Kang in Pittsburgh this year? Is July unrealistically optimistic?

Travis Sawchik: I’d guess July would be the earliest

Peppy Tone: Good morning, Travis. (Still early here) How do you see the Yankees’ infield shaking out when Drury and Bird return?

Travis Sawchik: Good problems to have, for sure. I don’t have a great answers other than to say I think Andujar gets the lion’s share of reps the rest of the way at third and Torres at second

Eric: Last week you said the Yankees were down to only a 25% chance of winning the division.  Without the benefit of hindsight, that seemed completely ridiculous given that every team goes through winning and losing streaks and the Sox had yet to sustain any sort of bad luck up to that point.  I’m not sure I have an actual question, other than to suggest that maybe using divisional odds in mid-April is pointless and horribly inaccurate and we probably shouldn’t do it anymore?

Travis Sawchik: To be clear, FG projections said Yankees’ division odds were at 25% a week. Now? 46.4%

Travis Sawchik: If you played out a season 10,000 times from where the Red Sox and Yankees were a week ago, the Red Sox would win most of those divisions … But, yeah, April is a dangerous time to say anything, really

CamdenWarehouse: Where has Bryant’s power gone?  It doesn’t seem like he’ll ever be back in the upper 30s.

Travis Sawchik: Weird start for sure … Ks are way down (14.3%) and so is the power. The raw power is there unless he’s injured, but maybe he’s made an approach change?

20longyears: Nick Kingham thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: Great story and great debut for a prospect who has had some injury setbacks. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy but he could become a rotation fixture

Mark: Tell me about the potential for Shane Bieber. Seems like his stuff is improved from college and has more swing and miss. True?

Travis Sawchik: Some, including Kiley, have put his future command at 80. That’s a good place to start. His fastball has hit 96 this year. He has four pitches … Sounds like a future quality ML starter to me

ATL: Thoughts on Conforto so far? Slow start or is there anything you’ve seen that worries you related to his injury last year?

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Mets, I’m very encouraged he’s made it back this quickly and the raw power appeared intact this spring. His plate discipline is there. Let’s give him some time. He missed a lot of baseball and then had major surgery and a lengthy rehab.

connor: When is Steve Duggar to be promoted?

Travis Sawchik: He can help the Giants. I’m a believer. So hopefully soon

Eric: Nick Kingham was always a highly regarded prospect before his injury. Is it so crazy to think he can be a really good middle-of-the-rotation guy?

Travis Sawchik: It’s not crazy. He can stick in a rotation with health. Pirates have a lot of mid- back- young rotation pieces and he fits in there

Do The Chop: Is there a hotline I can call to talk about Ozzie Albies? I think I’m alienating my friends with how much I talk about him

Do The Chop: I think I might be addicted to Ozzie Albies. Help

Travis Sawchik: This is your hotline, friend

Travis Sawchik: Braves have a lot of great things going on and Cristian Pache hit his first professional home run last week

Do The Chop: Is Ozzie Albies already the best 2B in the NL?

Travis Sawchik: He’s posted 3.3 WAR in his first 370 plate appearances, so he’s in the conversation early. Javy Baez is doing some interesting things too. DJ LeMahieu is now pulling the ball for power. Interesting field!

Matt: I had never heard of Shance Bieber before Mark’s question. Is it wrong that I already hate him, solely because of his last name?

Travis Sawchik: This is the kind of traditional scouting bias we’re trying to eliminate from you, Matt

Ray: Would you expect Gerrit Cole to produce above below or at the level of say, Carlos Carrasco over the rest of the season?

Travis Sawchik: That’s an interesting question given Cole’s spin and performance spike. Our projections have them as pretty similar the rest of the way but our projections don’t know Cole has jumped his fastball whiff rate by 20%

Travis Sawchik: I’d lean Cole

Do The Chop: On a scale of 1 to 10 how real is Mac Williamson’s very brief breakout?

Travis Sawchik: He’s a swing changer and he’s working with the right private coach (Justin Turner’s) so I’ll buy in and say 6.5

Stevil: Could you see the Braves upgrading their rotation and 3B if they’re legitimately in the hunt at the deadline? Seattle’s currently in the mix, but if they fall off, I wonder if Paxton and Seager would make sense for Atlanta. They’d have the chips Seattle would need in return.

Travis Sawchik: But sure about that specific deal but Mariners do have a big chip in Paxton they might want to think about dealing at some point

Travis Sawchik: In general terms, I can see Braves as buyers

Travis Sawchik: I’m asking myself, do the White Sox have any incentive to call up Kopech before Super Two?

Travis Sawchik: Hi, me

Travis Sawchik: I don’t see why they would, really

Ozzie lover: Can Altuve even hold Ozzie’s beer at this point?

Travis Sawchik: If Altuve asks nicely

Phil: So are the Dodgers bad now? Their Base Runs record is only 14-13, so while they’ve had bad luck, they’ve also just been… meh.

Travis Sawchik: Pretty ugly. Some reasons for concern. But I still they’re the most talented team in the NL West.

Troutmaggedon: What’s up with Michael Fulmer? Middling results but his last start was lights out, although against a bad team. Buying the new slider hype?

Travis Sawchik: The Tigers’ first 20-plus games had first pitch temperatures below 40. Fulmer told me he was struggling with that when I saw him earlier this season.

tek: Is Andujar’s anemic walk rate a concern going forward? The bat just seems so legit.

Travis Sawchik: An unusual profile but it’s worked everywhere he’s been thus far

Sean: Now that Zunino’s back and hitting, this Mariners offense looks very dangerous.  Is their hitting and bullpen enough to carry their starters to a playoff game?

Travis Sawchik: They missed Zunino but I just don’t think they have enough to get into a WC spot

Moltar: Just think, Matt, if Shane Bieber becomes a superstar, maybe the name won’t always be associated for you with the pop star.

Travis Sawchik: Let’s all root for Shane to save the Bieber surname

Britt: How long until Tomlin is dropped from the rotation?  His command is not good and there is a drop in his velocity?

Travis Sawchik: Command has been more troubling than velo (which has improved). He’ll get a few more chances it sounds like

O’s Say Can You See: As impressive as the ‘stros have been in evaluating talent, they seemed to somewhat undervalue Teoscar… simply a matter of an embarrassment of riches or was there something they saw that convinced them it was ok to part with him?

Travis Sawchik: Good question that I don’t have an answer to. Teoscar has been crushing baseballs like no one else.

Joe Joe: If there was an pitcher that performed like the Astros starters combined have in their first 29 starts, what place in Cy Young voting would this pitcher finish? 5th?

Travis Sawchik: So that’s a 2.50 ERA/3.21 FIP/3.12 xFIP/4.6 WAR …. 10.8 K/9, 2.55/BB… 14 wins and 180 innings

Travis Sawchik: The rate stats would put you in contention but the candidate would fall short in wins and innings

Nate: Are you concerned about Kershaw at all?

Travis Sawchik: Well, I am concerned about everyone including all of you. But I cannot that my level of concern regarding Kershaw has deviated from normal level of concern

Travis Sawchik: (FWIW That’s my Carson impersonation)

Travis Sawchik: Seriously, though, this is a bit troubling … https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2036&position=P&statA…

Jaas: The Braves decide to buy at the deadline and partner with the Orioles – what does the megadeal look like?

Travis Sawchik: That would be fun

Travis Sawchik: Pache for Machado

Dylan: Is there a bigger gap between physical talent and actual results than Jorge Alfaro?

Travis Sawchik: He’s in the conversation

Travis Sawchik: He’ll be 25 in June so he’s not super young any longer, though catcher development can lag behind other positions

Anon: You work for in an MiLB clubhouse where analytics are practically nonexistent. You have no access to TrackMan data – just basic charting/stats software. How does one who is analytically minded continue to build a strong portfolio or be of more service to his team (for a friend)

Travis Sawchik: No TrackMan? I kind of assumed most clubs had wired that into their milb complexes by now

Travis Sawchik: To answer, I’d say ask interesting questions and find the answers

marichal: Is Brandon Nimmo good enough to force is way into the Mets line-up as a semi-regular?

Travis Sawchik: I believe so

Bruce: When do we panic about Sonny Gray?After tonight?2 weeks ago?

Travis Sawchik: Two weeks ago would be getting ahead of the crowd. Sheryl Ring wrote about Gray maybe getting too far removed from his fastball. There’s still one day left in April. Let’s wait a bit

ca$hman: Andujar for Machado.  Who says no?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees

Travis Sawchik: We (Well, Kiley and Eric) had Andujar as a top 10 overall prospect entering the season

Travis Sawchik: Yankees have been pretty patience in their retooling. As great as Machado is, I would be kind of surprised if they traded that control for half a season of Machado

Travis Sawchik: Also, the Orioles might simply never make a trade with the Yankees. So they might actually say ‘no’ too

Bo: What should the Braves do with their catching corps? Stick with Suzuki or go with Flowers?

Travis Sawchik: Catching is a time-share by nature, so there’s room for both. Suzuki has been amazing

Mountie Votto: So is Tyler Mahle a strikeout pitcher now? He was always a command/control, middling-K guy in the minors, but he’s rocking a cool 10.3 K/9 on the year so far

Travis Sawchik: Very intriguing start for Mahle. If he can miss bats a little better than we expected to go with that command maybe the Reds have a quality mid-rotation arm

Brad: With regards to Braves being buyers, they certainly have tons of capital to spend. How do they make the most of the 7 or so (Soroka, Anderson, Wright, Toussaint, Fried, Gohara, Allard) 50 FV starter prospects they have?

Travis Sawchik: I guess you start with the highest impact pieces and work form their and that would be the best SPs available

canofcorn66: Who do you have in the battle of the Matts: Olson, Chapman, or Davidson?

Travis Sawchik: Oh man

Travis Sawchik: That’s tough

Travis Sawchik: Olson looked like Babe Ruth last year, now Davison is amazing

Travis Sawchik: I’d go with Chapman who rates as an above-average defender and is raking

Travis Sawchik: All interesting

Matt: Why do grumpy old men who say things like “they need to hit the ball in the air” get angry when someone measures the extent to which a hitter is hitting the ball in the air?

Travis Sawchik: When a computer can measure what the expert has always said, that’s threatening

Bo: How might pitchers start to combat the “launch angle” revolution?

Travis Sawchik: Pitchers did try to go up last year, but it didn’t work

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitchers-went-up-in-2017-and-it-didnt-…

Travis Sawchik: Probably worth following up on

Geust: I know I’m only allowed to talk about Acuña and the brand new hotness, so please do not take note that Rhys Hoskins, Tommy Pham, Mitch Haniger, and, you know, a few others, are performing well this season.

Travis Sawchik: Don’t ruin this for everyone

Bill: Is Cavan Biggio a potential top prospect, or just a legacy with good pitch recognition?

Travis Sawchik: He didn’t make our Blue Jays list

Travis Sawchik: But what a name

Travis Sawchik: The 14% walk rate is interesting

Rock Kickass: Any buy low players you can think of off the top of your head? Slow April stats but you expect to rake once the weather warms?

Travis Sawchik: There might be some frustrated Anthony Rizzo owners out there

Mountie Votto: Please tell me Luis Castillo will be ok 🙁

Travis Sawchik: This is why the Reds cannot have nice things

Travis Sawchik: It’s be really ugly

Travis Sawchik: Silver linings: swinging strike and chase rates are up

Travis Sawchik: Everything else? Awful

Travis Sawchik: Probably not a guy you want to sell at this low a point, though

Mountie Votto: Remember when everyone was freaking out about Joey Votto?

Travis Sawchik: There should be no baseball “takes” or blog posts or newspaper articles in April

54: I heard that Buck won’t play Chance Sisco more because every time he gets a big hit they play the Thong Song on repeat in the clubhouse afterward, and Buck HATES tacky hip hop. Any veracity to this rumor?

Travis Sawchik: Seems too detailed to be a lie

BK: Oh boy Pache for Machado straight up would be quite the deal. Especially if the Braves can sign Harper this offseason, Pache doesn’t really have a spot for a while

Travis Sawchik: Braves could be a dark horse FA landing spot for a lot of guys. Braves have money to spend and a ton of prospect capital

Travis Sawchik: Braves-Phillies could become an interesting thing in the NL East

Padres Fan: What are your thoughts on Franchy Cordero thus far?

Travis Sawchik: Franchy is proof that you can become a must-see player and not be that valuable

Sam: I would certainly hope the Braves get more for Pache than a half year rental

Travis Sawchik: Depends on how you view Pache’s bat. He wasn’t on most top 100 lists

Travis Sawchik: If I’m on the Braves, I’d hold on to my biggest chips for more control and take a flier on the big-time FAs in the coming offseason

Joe Joe: On Teoscar, I expect part of it was undervaluing him, part trying to get money off the books in Aoki, and part overvaluing what Liriano would do in the playoffs.

Travis Sawchik: Even the best of orgs make mistakes

James: Is Tyson Ross back to being good?

Travis Sawchik: He’s relevant again

Charley: In honor of your sage response above that “April is a dangerous time to say anything,” would you consider holding a silent chat where we all sit here for a few hours, staring at a blank chat box? I for one would applaud your restraint.

Travis Sawchik: I guess If I am willing to propose something, I ought to fight for it somewhere. Where better than in this space right now?

Travis Sawchik: So in honor of not signing anything else in April, today’s chat is concluding

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the great questions! But I will not be fielding any questions until next month

Travis Sawchik: Until May, be good and do good