Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Welcome to Sawchik Chat VIII, everyone. How about those Oscar snafus? Let’s talk …

baby bull : are the Yips baseball specific? Are there accounts of Golfers or other athletes that suffer from same mental block?

Travis Sawchik: I wrote about the yips today on the site …. They are not baseball specific as they occur in golf and tennis, too. Any sport where you have time to think between movements and action, the yips can probably occur

Travis Sawchik: Sergio Garcia has dealt with them ,I believe

Michael: What spring training battles are your top 3 to watch?

Travis Sawchik: Speaking of the yips, I hope Swihart can get over his throwing issues this spring. I know it’s a good bet he begins in 3A, but I still think he can be a quality regular and he should be able to push the competition in front of him …. I’m curious if Hahn can grab a rotation spot in Oakland

Mr OBP: Which minor league player are you most excited to see at major league level – Robles, Bellinger, or M.Chapman?

Travis Sawchik: Bellinger. Love the swing. He’s really going to hit

Zack: Which players do you think will have breakout year this year?

Travis Sawchik: Buxton is a popular pick, and I think he’s going to establish himself as a quality regular with more room for growth….I think Manaea is going to be really good in Oakland, Cotton, too, in that A’s rotation. I guess I like the A’s rotation. Does Thames count in MKE?

Travis Sawchik: Also, Margot in SD … And Conforto in NYM if the Mets clear a spot

Ryan: Yips are for real — my senior year in high school during the state tournament, after throwing a ball over the fence and nearly hitting a woman during between-inning-warmups, I threw away an easy ground ball in extra innings to end my high school career….the player who scored on my error to win the game for his team: Andrew Benintendi

Travis Sawchik: Oh, the Yips are very real. We all know about Lester, but Pedro Alvarez was a 3-WAR player at 3B and he remains unsigned because he lost the ability to make a routine throw. Think about the money he’s lost. There’s still a taboo about working with psychologists, too, I think

Moltar: Could it actually be a good thing for the Mets if Duda goes down? Move Bruce to 1B and open up playing time for Conforto. Duda’s just keeping the seat warm for Dom Smith anyway.

Travis Sawchik: Like 99 percent of the public, I want to see Conforto play every day. It will happen, eventually

thedudeindenver: Waht do you see out of David Peralta this year? Can he regain pre-injury form? Looks like he’s slotted for starting reps in RF.

Travis Sawchik: That DBacks rotation is sure hoping for a healthy outfield…Sounds like he’s on track

Cyclops : Do you think Robles will become a true five-tool player? It seems lkek

Travis Sawchik: Robles has a good chance to rank very highly on prospect lists next year …One of the better 5-tool bets out there

Joe: What would you do with Urias? Dodgers have lots of different ways they can go

Travis Sawchik: I’d use him conservatively in a SP role, maybe limit him to two trips through the lineup to reduce innings

JT: So pitchers need time to gradually ramp up intensity but theres basically no reason as to why position players gradually build up to taking 3 at bats every day, other than just wasting time so the pitchers can get ready?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, ha, I think that’s about right….I don’t think MLB knows how to maximize ST, we’re just kind of prisoners to tradition and pitchers building up arm strength

Ben: Excellent article today, Travis. QQ – I traded Paxton ($4), Shoemaker ($5) and Snell ($8) away in my AL only league for Kluber ($23)? Too much, square deal or did I crush?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Ben! For this year I like it, but long-term that’s quite a bit. Snell and Paxton are legit. But Kluber is a sure-fire ace

Laine : Padres fan here. Can you give me a good reason why we shouldn’t trade a bullpen piece a la Brad Hand or an international signing spot for Brandon Nimmo. Young, great makeup, and seemingly the potential for *some sort* of breakout, on a team that has a glut of LH corner Ofs

Travis Sawchik: I like the idea. I like what the Padres have going on in their system, and anything that adds to that group is a prudent strategy.

v2micca: Let’s assume Carter Capps stays healthy and is traded to a contender at the deadline. How will the casual public react to him hopping halfway down the mound in the Play-offs?

Travis Sawchik: Great question. That delivery seems (is?) so illegal. He’s releasing the pitch like, what, 38 feet from homeplate? 22 feet of extension?

Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Kopech or Y. Alvarez if you had your choice?

Travis Sawchik: So close. Love each of them. But I suppose Kopech

v2micca: Assuming they can’t resign Harper, is the the Washington’s window closing after the 2018 season?

Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t say it’s closed with Scherzer and Strasburg still around to front a rotation, but losing Harper might be the difference between contending for divisions and wild cards … and the Braves (and maybe Phillies) are rising

JP: Do you think Keon Broxton continues to make strides after his impressive second half last year?

Travis Sawchik: If he continues to make strides he’ll be an incredible player, but even if he maintains his unusual, current skill-set he’s one of the better CFs in baseball. I’m on the bandwagon

Jeetness: In a points dynasty league who would you prefer to have? Story or Lindor. Penalizes CS and Ks

Travis Sawchik: Lindor … He’s Roberto Alomar at shortstop

Sonny: If I can throw 80mph how many Capps hops would it take for me to be a viable MLB reliever?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get you to 45 feet … one stride is about three feet, so …

Jason in Dallas: Would love to hear your thoughts on this Twitter chatter – who wins — a team of Mike Trouts vs a team of Madison Bumgarners?

Travis Sawchik: Good pitching beats good hitting, right? Bumgarner and it’s not really a contest

Zack: How in the world will the Nationals compete after 2023?? If I am not mistaken, between 2023-2029, the Nationals will be paying Strasburg and Scherzer $25M a year in deffered payments, while they are on another contract or off the team.

Travis Sawchik: There’s some challenges ahead, no doubt, and I’m assuming they lose Harper (to the Yankees). But that’s six years from now so a lot can happen

Scote: How good is Don Cooper? Do you think he can get Giolito’s control back and check and will that be enough if the velocity doesn’t also kick back up?

Travis Sawchik: If you believe in your pitching coach, and program, Giolito is the type of arm you want to add. If Cooper really adds a lot of value, and the medical staff there, too, then ChiSox should get more out of young arms … It will be interesting to follow

Totes McGoats: Re: Margot breaking out this year… what’s your “breakout” line look like for him?

Travis Sawchik: Starling Marte playing CF (which I guess Marte is doing this season in Pittsburgh)

Rob: Have you spoken to Steve Blass regarding the yips? From reading his biography, it seems he tried every crazy thing imaginable, but was finally able to overcome it when he was in his 60’s. He was able to pitch successfully at a Pirate fantasy camp.

Travis Sawchik: I have. I don’t think any of us can imagine how difficult that was. He wandered the streets one night in Cincy in despair…. I wonder if working with a sport psych staff today if he could have beaten it.

Hot Dogs are Sandwiches: What do you think the Jays see in Justin Smoak? I see a replacement level guy who the Jays are all too keen to give a full-time role to…

Travis Sawchik: Great question. I don’t know. Maybe they are still hung up on the guy some thought was going to be the next Mark Teixeira coming out of South Carolina

The Oriole Bird: More likely outcome for Adam Jones for 2017: Bounceback to his previous norm as 3.5-5 WAR player or continue decline to 1ish WAR?

Travis Sawchik: Where is that defense headed? Hopefully he’s not on the McCutchen path …

Dal: Absolutely love your work, Travis! What do you see as G. Polanco’s ceiling and chances of getting there?

Travis Sawchik: PECOTA’s top three comps: Hermida (I loved that guy!), Tarasco, Francoeur …. That’s somewhat terrifying

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know that Polanco is ever going to become a 6-win player, but I do think he made real adjustments in regard to power. I think he’s going to be a consistent 25-homer, 270/330/470 guy with solid corner defense even if it sometimes looks ugly

Rand: Let’s say the nats sign Pagan and Blanton. How much of their depth concerns would this address?

Travis Sawchik: That would help. Someone please sign Joe Blanton

CarrotJuice: Loved your Yips article! One thing: you left out the aftermath of Jon Lester’s 5/13/15 pick off which is one of the funniest things ever.

Travis Sawchik: I try to limit the length of GIFs and a responsible GIF creator

Erik: If you’re the Nationals, do you trade Harper after this year, regardless of whether or not you think you’ll contend in 2018? Even considering that would assume that one year of Harper brings back enough talent to seamlessly bridge the gap to the next contending Nats team. Do you think he’d be worth that much?

Travis Sawchik: It would be so tough to trade Harper, but if you think he’s going to New York after 2018 you have to consider it …. and add to a future Robles-Turner-Rendon position player core

Contraction: With Tampa’s inability to draw a crowd and the Diamondbacks already looking to strongarm a new stadium out of Phoenix, what would be your thoughts on resetting the clock to 1997 and contracting the two teams? Move the A’s to Phoenix to solve their stadium conundrum!

Travis Sawchik: I’m very much against contraction, especially with the money in the game … I’ve experienced a team leaving a town as a fan (the Browns) and I don’t wish that upon any city. Tampa is a transient place so it was always going to take time – and a much better stadium location – to build a fan base

Brendon: How much would you use the depth chart projections in a fantasy draft? Completely, or add you own opinions?

Travis Sawchik: Use them as a tool, but add in your own insights and hunches, too

Rocky: Do you see Correa sticking at SS long term, or maybe shifting to 3b with Bregman moving back over to SS?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t see any reason to move Correa off short yet … he’s a darkhorse MVP candidate there in 2017

Jeff: Which starting pitcher who disappointed in 2016 do you see rebounding in 2017?

Travis Sawchik: I guess the obvious candidate is Shelby Miller. He HAS to be better, right?

Donut Muncher: We’re getting the first openly gay major football recruit this year. How long do you think before we get an openly gay MLB player?

Travis Sawchik: Within 5 years

Marcus : 5/7 with 2 Homeruns to start the spring for Conforto. This guy has got to be in the opening day lineup, right?

Travis Sawchik: I hope so. He’s going to hit

Gabe: Chances the Rockies take a wild card spor?

Travis Sawchik: 18 percent

SDinSEA: What’s the generally accepted definition of a 5 tool player? It seems like you see guys with a 45 grade tool get lumped here far too often. In my eyes a true 5-tool guy is 60s across the board. Is that the consensus?

Travis Sawchik: It’s somewhat subjective, I guess. But you at least have to be average – 50- in regard to your weakest tool

Sartorial Advice: Worst uniform in baseball? Fine…worst uniform in baseball besides the Diamondbacks?

Travis Sawchik: The Diamondbacks’ are soooooo bad. I’m thinking….

Travis Sawchik: I’m not a huge fan or the Rangers … but I don’t think there are many awful looks in the game right now.

Davos: Which NL team has the best chance of usurping the Cubs if everything breaks right ?

Travis Sawchik: I think you can reasonably argue the Dodgers are the best team in the NL right now

John: Do you think knowledge of pitchers’ spin rates will help guys adjust? ie if a guy has a really high spin fastball, batters will swing at the top to adjust for the ball staying up? Think this will make any difference? Thanks Travis!

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know how many players would make such a technical adjustment, it’s worth asking about for sure …. But savvy players will use all information they can access

v2micca: So, I’m looking at Billy Chapel’s stats for the 1999 season with the Tigers and there is something I just can’t get over. 220 Innings Pitched, 120 Ks, 98 BBs, but only a 3.39 ERA. He must have had an all time low BABIP or an insane strand rate.

Travis Sawchik: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Love_of_the_Game

Travis Sawchik: I think he got some Cy Young votes

Matt: In reading your article on the yips, I was reminded of any idea I had one time. Should teams mandate their players see a therapist at least once a month? Professionally baseball HAS to be mentally draining with the need to perform, the grind, travel, not seeing family…etc. Making it mandatory is important because I have to imagine their is a stigma against therapy in baseball masculine culture. I’ve always wondered how many unexplained struggles in baseball could be due to “mental injury” that we’ll never know about. Imagine suffering severe depression and having to play in front of 30,000+ people when it is a struggle to just get out of bed.

Travis Sawchik: There’s still taboo attached, but I think the clubhouse culture is slowly becoming more accepting. Still, it’s got to go a long ways to become similar to working with a training staff

SDinSEA: Hey Travis! Question about grades on arm strength. I saw Hunter Greene receive 60-70 grades on his arm strength at shortstop and he bumps triple digits on the mound. When it comes to pure velocity, would a guy with a 70 arm in the field generally have 70-grade velocity on the mound? Lesser, more?

Travis Sawchik: It’s relative to the position, so I’d suspect the answer is generally ‘no’

Andrew: Final keeper? Jose Reyes, Fernando Rodney, Chad Bettis… I am a rebuilder loaded with prospects so essentially looking for the potential best value in a mid-season trade.

Travis Sawchik: Rodney should have some value with teams needing saves, right?

Rand: Are the Orioles a tough team to project? Every year I can’t imagine them contending but they always do.

Travis Sawchik: yeah, I can’t figure them out. Showalter Effect?

Dave: Please rank/select my last keeper spot: Salazar, Harvey, Buxton, Trumbo, Mazara.
Other keepers: Darvish, C.Martinez, Bregman, C.Seager, Odor, D.Gordon, Schwarber(C – elig.), T.Turner, Bautista, and Benintendi

Travis Sawchik: I really like Mazara…but Buxton still has superstar potential

A. Reitz: 30% K rates are rarely ever conquered. Why are people so excited about K. Broxton? It’s not like he’s struggled JUST in the majors w/ K’s. He did in the minors too. Feels like his hype train is even greater than Domingo’s last year.

Travis Sawchik: He’ll always swing and miss, but plus defense, plus walk rates and plus power is pretty attractive in CF

Ben: Do you put water on before or after the toothpaste when you’re brushing your teeth? (there’s a correct answer to this)

Travis Sawchik: Before. Am I doing it right?

Nobody Important: Who is the better Austin in 2017, Hedges or Barnes?

Travis Sawchik: I want to believe Hedges has learned how to hit

Dago: Million dollar question: What type of contract would you give to Eric Hosmer? You’re the GM! Go Ahead, Travis!

Travis Sawchik: Not one he’d be likely to sign

Randy Marsh: Who’s the most electrifying pitcher you’ve ever seen in person?

Travis Sawchik: I saw Chris Sale of Florida Gulf Coast face Clemson. That was a mismatch. I also saw Matt Harvey throw a 157 pitches in a start against Clemson. PR staff asked me not to mention it!

Travis Sawchik: The pitch count that is

Dylan: How would you rank tools in terms of importance? Hit, power, glove, arm, speed?

Travis Sawchik: Hit (can you play), Glove (where can you play), Power (how much damage can you do?), Arm (where can you play), Speed

Gary: Is it really that much of an uphill battle for Byung-Ho Park to get back on the roster? The Twins can’t love paying $9M to a minor leaguer.

Travis Sawchik: Park deserves another look

Travis Sawchik: He’s a Statcast God and it’s the 21st century

Nick: Do you think Ken Giles can be a top 5 closer if he keeps the role all year?

Travis Sawchik: certainly top 10

Danny Almonte: Dave mentioned liking a pitch clock. What do you think? How would that work with baserunners?

Travis Sawchik: I think baseball has a pace problem, but it’s as much tied to batters leaving the box for no reason — which I guess a clock would help with

sw: Korean God of Statcast?

Travis Sawchik: No! U.S., too. Check out that exit velocity and barrel rate

Ben: The correct answer was after the toothpaste good lord you heathen how could you

Travis Sawchik: You will not change my practices

Pip: It’s the trade deadline, 2018. The Nationals are holding onto first place in the East but its a dog fight. You know there is no way you will be able to keep Harper next year in FA. Would you trade him if the package was right? If Robles is knocking on the door would it change your answer?

Travis Sawchik: If the package is right – meaning outrageous – yes

CamdenWarehouse: For Rand – from Sam Miller today: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18740637/how-baltimore-orioles-keep-trumping-projections

Travis Sawchik: For you, Rand

Randy Marsh: Does Danny Salazar still have ace potential? Can he be that guy or is he a tier below?

Travis Sawchik: Seems like he needs a third pitch

Andrew: Do you think we are close to a better theory of what aspects of a player’s psychological profile matter for scouting purposes? That looks like potentially the next frontier for analytics.

Travis Sawchik: Problem is getting such access to a player pre-draft … agents control a lot of the process

Marty: If you were to pick to have one of these 3 pitchers with current contracts attached who would it be? James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, or Danny Duffy.

Travis Sawchik: I loved what I saw from Duffy in 2016

Marc: I know I know its still Feb. but Glasnows outing is very encouraging, no? Any idea how many pitches he actually threw and what it would take for him to start in Pittsburgh at the beginning of the year?

Travis Sawchik: Keep an eye on Glasnow, for sure … If he keeps pitch like that he can force his way into rotation. Pirates need every win they can get

drew: What does a fair extension for Yu/Lucroy look like in your opinion?

Travis Sawchik: Yu – pretty expensive … Lucroy? I want to know more why his framing numbers have declined

Baby Bombers: Aaron Judge’s O/u for HRs this year. Taking the over or under at 30?

Travis Sawchik: Under. He’s got a contact issue to figure out

Johnny: Who’s better in 2 years. Springer or Gregory polanco?

Travis Sawchik: Springer

Alan: With the Braves loading up on arms, many of which have already undergone TJ, how do they handle it long term? When a TJ survivor like Max Fried gets to the big leagues and succeeds, do they trade him because of the risk of the second TJ?

Travis Sawchik: Braves are diving in on risk and hoping to extract some valuable pre-Age 30, pre-FA seasons … I actually kind of like it

v2micca: Sony San Diego chose to use Ken Griffey Jr. as their cover athlete for MLB theShow17. In an era were we have Noah Syndergaard, Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw still playing, this offended me.

Travis Sawchik: Baseball’s marketing could use some help

Fran: A lot of fuss this offseason about the mets outfield defense. Possible this can be extremely overstated? Bruce’s metrics got much better when he was no longer playing next to Hamilton, everyone forgets Cespedes won a GG in left in 2015, granderson and Conforto are at least average corner OFs with Conforto actually being pretty good, and Lagares is a GGer. Not that the alignment will always be perfect, but can’t this group be decent?

Travis Sawchik: Mets’ OF really needs to hit

Cubbie: Javier Baez had a great year last year but I worry that he overachieved in the batters box. What do you think?

Travis Sawchik: Maybe, but the glove (and tagging skills!) will always make him valuable

Tim: Travis, over the course of your career in sports journalism what story did you find most interesting but were unable to pursue because of a lack of interest from a broader audience? Similarly, was there a story that your audience was fascinated by that you didn’t find all that interesting?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting question. Writing for a newspaper didn’t allow for the data-based type of writing FanGraphs allows for … Stories about lineup positioning probably tend to get too much attention

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, thanks for the questions! I have to attend to a demanding 2-year-old. Same time/place next week!
Bonne nuit et bonne chance