Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings …

Travis Sawchik: Happy Monday

Travis Sawchik: Glad you are hanging out here and choosing to drain some of America’s workplace productivity

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started

Despairing Mets Fan(All Mets Fan: Please provide hope during these dark times. Can Conforto, Bruce, and Cespedes catch fire? Will Degrom return and keep rolling? And please tell me Rosario is not a bust.

Travis Sawchik: Let’s give Conforto some time. We didn’t even expect to be back at this point. Degrom avoided a worst-case scenario.  But the Braves and Phillies might be here to stay for awhile

Gwynns above replacement: Hosmer’s BB% and K% are both 7% above their career norms so far this year. Has he made a legit approach change or is this early noise?

Travis Sawchik: Is swing rate and O-zone rates are in line with his career averages. And Hosmer is still hitting as many ground balls as ever. So while Hosmer did some work with JDM’s swing coach this offseason, I’m not sure we’re seeing any real adjustment

MSW: So the Mets should rebuild, right? Even if they right the ship, this core is not going to compete long term with the ascendant Braves and Phillies and ownership can’t (aka won’t) compete with the Nationals financially. Might as well get a king’s ransom for deGrom and Thor now while they still can.

Travis Sawchik: Mets are in a tough spot but they could get a haul for some of those arms. On the other hand, obtaining better core pieces than Thor-deGrom-Conforto-Cespedes is going to be tough to achieve. They still have the top SP 1-2 punch in the division and it’s under control for awhile

Dokken: Rockies rotation ranks(once park adjusted) top 5 in baseball? All the rookies from last year have raised their k/9, dropped bb/9, etc. Pen has been great despite missing Rusin for the start of the season.

Travis Sawchik: Rockies quietly had one of the better staffs in baseball last year (when adjusting for park) and they added $100 million-plus to that bullpen. So it’s not too surprising they’re off to a good start off the mound. Bud Black and his team deserve some development credit, too.

Travis Sawchik: Rockies also have a 77 wRC+ which ranks 28th in baseball

Travis Sawchik: Imagine if the Rockies could hit!

Travis Sawchik: Ian Desmond has this slash line: .188/.232/.385 and a 50 wRC+

Chris: Is the Indians bullpen situation as dire as it seems and how can the team best address the issue?

Travis Sawchik: At the moment, it’s not great and I worry that Cody Allen is going to get fatigued early (114 pitches last week). But they’ll get Miller back, soon, and maybe they’ll eventually get Salazar back and turn him into an impact reliever

Travis Sawchik: Still, I’d be scouring the market for relief help

Jobu: Read your Athletic article this morning… Indians clearly need relief help. Love the Hand/Yates idea. Would a return be more than what the Yanks gave for Kahnle/Robertson?

Travis Sawchik: I would think Dave Cameron (and the rest of the Padres) would have that package as a comp. With Miller and Allen headed toward free agency after the year, it would make some sense for the Indians to make a deal that impacts this year and gives the club some control beyond

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox have been great but adding to the Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger/Allen/Miller group with some impact arms would make the Indians a tough out in October

Travis Sawchik: And the Padres might want to flip some of their relievers if they continue to struggle

Andy: Mitch Keller looks great right now in AA.  Pirates definitely have a tough road ahead of them to compete for a wild card spot, but if they’re still in it around late June-July, does it make sense to call him up?  He definitely looks like one of the best 5 or 6 SP’s in the organization.

Travis Sawchik: Keller hasn’t been overwhelmingly great, has had some spotty command. Pirate will be patient with him, I think

Coz: Sheryl says that the Mariners or Twins could be a fit for Harvey…do you agree that a potential contender should take a flyer on him? Or would it make more sense for say…the White Sox to add him and take some time trying to rehab him?

Travis Sawchik: I’d rather take a shot on Harvey as a non-contender

Deez Nuts : Shouldn’t the Orioles consider moving Machado now? They are clearly out of it and I’m not sure that price will get higher by waiting. 2 extra months of Machado has to be worth something.

Travis Sawchik: Deez, the Orioles have already waited too long but I guess he loses a little bit of value every day they wait at this point

Jaack: The AL Central has 4 teams with losing record. The entire NL has 4 teams with losing records.

Travis Sawchik: The AL Central doesn’t have a team with a winning record. Not a great look!

ChiSox2020: Do the Dodgers make a trade soon to correct course?

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers have some real issues as their DL is littered with stars

Travis Sawchik: But before trading too much of tomorrow for today, I’d see what tomorrow (Walker Buehler) can today.

Dan: Thoughts on Gleyber Torres so far?

Travis Sawchik: He’s been really good. Cashman has done a great job of not only collecting young talent but convincing ownership in 2016 that taking a small step back was the prudent path

Mac: The Indians have 4 starters still below replacement level: Encarnacion, Kipnis, Alonso, and Tomlin (not counting Chisenhall went on the DL early). Which of these should hope still be held out for?

Travis Sawchik: Alonso has some awful luck early by wOBA-xwOBA. EE had a three-homer game last week. I’m most worried about Tomlin who cannot afford steps back in command (more of a problem to date) or stuff

Travis Sawchik: Kipnis I’d like to see have a platoon partner, though he’s actually been slightly better against lefties early this season

Kershnah?: What’s the probability that Kershaw’s health/skill decline is turning into a cliff instead of a nice rounded hill?

Travis Sawchik: I still think it will be a nice rounded cliff … if he’s mostly healthy

Travis Sawchik: He could fall short of 200 innings for the third straight season

Travis Sawchik: Lot of bullets

HappyFunBall: The Marlins sold everything except Realmuto and he missed a month with injury. Also, despite being in a division containing one “super team” and three other overperformers, they are not the worst team in baseball. In fact, depending what metrics you prefer there are between 3 and 6 teams worse than they are.

I guess my question is: What the hell, Baltimore?

Travis Sawchik: The Fightin’ Jeters

Fan: How do I view a player or teams xwOBA on Fangraphs?  I can never find it

Travis Sawchik: That’s a BaseballSavant.com, Statcast-based metric

Guest: Domingo German has a 15% SwStr% in 2018, what’s a realistic expectation from him?

Travis Sawchik: He was shoving yesterday. He has some command issues but the swing-and-miss stuff is legit

yojiveself: after last season with them playing with the DL, is this karma for the dogers?

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers are not gaming the DL this year

Jimmy Jammer: Who gets cut from the Yankee’s roster when Bird and Drury are back?

Travis Sawchik: Neil Walker needs to pick up the pace

Vegan Man!: Do you think the Yankees will extend Didi or let him walk in 2 years. Seems like Torres has a stronger arm and can really pick it… Thanks!

Travis Sawchik: Good problems to have. Maybe Machado could fit as a super utility piece 😉

brad: Isn’t the Harvey destination clear as day???  He is going to go to Houston, he will start adding the magic elixir and will gain 400RPM and 3MPH to his FB and be great!!  Hou did it with a crappy Morton, a crappy Keuchel, a washed up Verlander so why not Harvey?

Travis Sawchik: Thinking emoji face

54: Which Free Agent sitting at home DOING NOTHING do you think has the most appeal at this point? Is anyone ever gonna call Brett Lawrie again?

Travis Sawchik: At the start of the season,  Ubaldo Jimenez was our remaining free agent projected for the highest WAR (1.7) this season

Ozzie A.: I’ll have you know, sir, I take my lunch during chats!

Travis Sawchik: My apologies!

Dan: The three NL division favorites are all currently in 4th place. What’s the concern level for those three?

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers concern me most just because of the DL list and the Diamondbacks and Rockies are quality teams that aren’t going away

Giants fan: isn’t it argued that wRC+ undervalues the Rockies, since it corrects for Coors Field but not for the Coors Field hangover affect? or has that been fixed?

Travis Sawchik: Right, but 77? Rockies have some position player voids in their lineup

Travis Sawchik: And that was clear going into the season

Sir Nerdlington: Let’s help the MLBPA salve their self-induced wounds.

What do you think of realignment where, instead of “NL” and “AL” you have a “low revenue” and “high revenue” leagues – still sorted by geography.  (Marketing can massage those names.)  

e.g. High$ West – LAA, LAD, SF, ARI.  Low$ West – SD, OAK, SEA, COL

The incentive to spend the marginal dollar should rise with ‘super teams’ often jammed into the same divisions.  Won’t happen, but your thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: I love fun/crazy ideas that will never happen

bLEH: Dodgers down a Seager, a Kershaw, a Forsythe, and  Puig already (and I could be forgetting some too).  Can you still see them winning the division?  The depth is good but there’s only so much of it

Travis Sawchik: Like an NBA game, I think the Dodgers are going to make a run (and become healthier) but they’re down a lot of production to injury. We have the Dbacks-Dodgers as a coin flip in the playoff odds.

Ben: Most likely 2019 scenario: A) Matt Harvey is a starting pitcher for an MLB team. B) Matt Harvey is a relief pitcher for an MLB team. C) Matt Harvey is pitching on a Triple A team. D) Matt Harvey takes some time off and holds a showcase in July. E) Matt Harvey is pitching in Asia.

Travis Sawchik: So much pitching need in the game that I will choose A but I don’t feel great about it

Travis Sawchik: Of course, if Harvey chooses Houston he’ll be a Cy Young contender

Willie Calhoun: At this point, are the Reds waiting for after super 2 to call up Nick Senzel?

Travis Sawchik: Sorry, Nick, but I’d be waiting for the 2019 Super 2 cut off at this point

capconstrained: As a Yankee fan, I feel non-Yankee fans need to be warned: The Death Star is Fully Operational

Travis Sawchik: Astros-Yankees ALCS would be fun (again)

Giants fan: How about the Giants? We just swept the braves and are up to 4 games over .500. Do you think we have a shot at being competitive(around 85 wins)

Travis Sawchik: A shot? Sure. But I still think they’re the No. 4 team in the division

Daro: Eloy up by june?

Travis Sawchik: Hey, remember when the Cubs had Eloy and Gleyber?

Taylor: When does Nick Markakis stop hitting?

Travis Sawchik: Nick Markakis questions are creeping back into this chat. Why? He has a 170 wRC+.

mario mendoza: Greinke still has amazing K-BB and FIP, but the drop in Velo “seems” to validate the ERA jump. Do you think his ERA finishes closer to his low-3s FIP or his current 4.10 ERA?

Travis Sawchik: Greinke is still one of the better pitchers in the game with diminished velo, but it’s dropped him from the elite tier

Justin: I hereby submit that the Yankees’ current 16-2 is more impressive than the Sox’s earlier 17-2 based on strength of competition (projected .551 combiend WPCT), not to mentioned the zero offdays and criss-crossing the country.

Travis Sawchik: The Yankees are who we thought they were

Gary: Let us discuss Trout

Travis Sawchik: 3 WAR and it’s May 7!

Travis Sawchik: That 15-win season is going to be something

Travis Sawchik: Trout keeps getting better. I mean a 93% zone contact rate and career-low 5.5 swinging strike rate is remarkable given his power and quality of batted balls

Fermat: Richard Rodriguez is dealing. What’s up with that?

Travis Sawchik: Great question

Spicy Boy: Um how was Ubaldo projected for 1.7 WAR?

Travis Sawchik: That’s another great question

Dan Szymborski: If Nick Markakis makes the all star team, do I have to resign?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Mike: Vladdy jr… mlb eta?

Travis Sawchik: .398/.455/.624 slash in the Eastern League says ‘yes’

aaron hicks: what’s wrong with me this year?  any chance at a rebound?

Travis Sawchik: I’ll take the switch-hitting CF with a 15.4% BB rate and 22% Krate

Travis Sawchik: Looks like Hicks is retaining some of the skill growth from last season

HappyFunBall: Speaking of SF … Samardzija’s diminished velocity is (a) still hurt, (b) still getting warmed up having no real spring training, or (c) too old + too many hurts = just doesn’t have it anymore ?

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3254&position=P&statA…

Travis Sawchik: That’s kind of scary

Travis Sawchik: Can he still run routes like he did at Notre Dame?

Big Joe Mufferaw: Can the yankees sign Harper and fit him in the Line up? (Gardner is an FA)

Travis Sawchik: There’s a way to fit Bryce Harper in every MLB lineup

Travis Sawchik: He could play CF in Yankee II

Nixon: Do you have any concern that the American League is a lot more overpowered than the National League? The four best teams are arguably in the AL (Unless you feel strongly about Arizona)

Travis Sawchik: The AL does seem to be shaping up as a league with little parity. And if you’re concerned about a greater divide between the Haves and Have Nots, it’s worth paying attention to

Caleb Smith: Can i keep this up?

Travis Sawchik: To a degree, yes

CamdenWarehouse: Will teams still overpay for rental position players at the deadline or that a thing of the past?

Travis Sawchik: I suspect we’re going to see teams overpaying for relief help

Rivervillian: Is the Jays bullpen for real? Are they going to be that good for that long, or is it just a matter of time with the rotation slowly turning into hot butter?

Travis Sawchik: The Blue Jays could be for real but still finish 15 games out of first place. They are in the wrong division, obviously

Tristan: Looking at a couple of struggling starters. Who do you like more, going forward – Danny Duffy or Luis Castillo? I worry that the Reds may send Castillo down when Disco gets healthy…

Travis Sawchik: Two of the biggest disappointments to date. But they are each decent buy low opps

Larry Williams: Machado is a top five player again, right?

Travis Sawchik: A SS/3B with a 177 wRC+? Yep

Paul Strelow: You think Colome holds on Ros?

Travis Sawchik: I think so? But my confidence level is like at 52 percent there

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the questions, folks!

Travis Sawchik: I have a cat and three-year-old  demanding lunch

Travis Sawchik: I’ll be back next week

Travis Sawchik: Until then, be good and do good