Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Welcome to what I believe is the first FG chat being headquartered at the Joker Marchant Stadium press box in Lakeland, Fla.

Travis Sawchik: Let’s chat …

Guest: Anti-WBC people are nuts. It’s baseball plus national pride, fans going nuts and players you rarely see. What am I missing?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not anti-WBC … but with its being held in March, without some of the world’s best players, and with limits on pitch counts and other issues it’s not able to reach its potential. WBC needs a new home on the calendar among other things, I feel

Bob: Torres, Swanson, Rasario, Crawford…. Who would you take at SS for the future?

Travis Sawchik: Swanson but it’s such a great group of SS prospects. Golden Era of shortstop play, for sure

Ryan Dunne: What kind of money do you think Carlos Santana will command next off-season? Any chance he signs a QO?

Travis Sawchik: I think he would test the market rather than sign a QO. He should be able to land a multi-year deal at $15m+

Travis Sawchik: per annum

th8_: Regarding “Salvador Perez Deserves a Break,” what do you make of the reports that he has lost 25 lbs? Does Yost try to have him catch 150 games this year?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. I’d guess 155 is the target

Sim: Travis! Who are some of your favorite tier 2 pitchers? ie. Tanaka, Salazar, Cole etc.

Travis Sawchik: Does Danny Duffy count?

GSon: Does that make you a Tiger’s Fan?

Travis Sawchik: No, but my brother-in-law is … I was here to watch Bundy and Fulmer pitch, now I suppose it’s just to watch Bundy. Threatening clouds and winds in the area

GSon: Which Gary Sanchez will the league see: The Home Run hitting 1.000+ OPS monster from August or the <.600 OPS timid free swinging easily fooled neophyte that wasn’t ready from September ?.. (btw.. the easy answer.. somewhere in between)

Travis Sawchik: I actually have a post on this very subject in the queue. I think expectations for Sanchez have gotten a bit out of control. Remember Brett Lawrie’s close to 2011? But I do like the player like everyone else.

someone: which bad baseball player do you irrationally love?

Travis Sawchik: I’ve rostered Eric Thames on fantasy rosters multiple times … so I’m very curious to see what the post-KBO iteration looks like

Peanut Brains: Trade one, keep one, drop one (dynasty). Gsellman, Cotton, Musgrove. Do you like any of these three in particular for 17?

Travis Sawchik: Eno is big on Cotton. So I’m big on Cotton. The changeup is possibly an elite pitch.

Grundy: Votto hit .400+ with OBP .490 in the 2nd half of last season. How is he not the best 1B in the league?

Travis Sawchik: He very well may be and he was incredible in the second half last season as we know. I’d like to see him moved to a contender

FarOouut: Re: Fly-Ball Revolution – I also remember Donaldson mid-season in his first year with Jays commenting on just putting the ball in the air at Rogers Centre as it will go out anywhere, versus Oakland where you had to pull and were punished for balls in the air to centre-right. He became more comfortable lifting balls as the ballpark factors increased his likelihood of success in doing so.

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. Environment can certainly play a role in success … But Donaldson did OK in Oakland, too

Oscar: Should I try to trade Rick Porcello now at his highest value?

Travis Sawchik: I think so. Good pitcher but probably not going to earn you 22 wins again

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Rumor is that the Rays are eyeing Lawrie. On a team with Longo, Duffy, and Miller as regulars with Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin as reserves, what use do they have for him, even at league minimum? Would have rather seen them claim Park.

Travis Sawchik: It’s a bit curious for sure. They might see a player with pedigree who has shown flashes of star potential.

Hey ho: In looking at Jung Ho’s wild ride last year: he rocked out to a .407 wOBA for May, June, Aug and Sept/Oct (combined (.270 /.377/.567 in 310 PAs). But a crazy outlier of .229 for July (.182 /.250/.255 in 60 PAs). What happened in July? It looks like a perhaps bogus sexual assault claim. I don’t mean to diminish that event, and if it happened, it should absolutely be taken seriously. But the data suggest it had an impact on his season. Anyway, are you optimistic that Kang can be a .375+ wOBA guy if he has a full season of injury-free ball?

Travis Sawchik: It’s difficult to know how Kang was affected by the assault claim last season. But in a season free of injury and other issues he could be a star-level bat, I think. He’s answered all questions about his ability to hit velocity.

Jeremy: do you think Keon Broxton can make the leap this year after how he finished last year? Possible 20-40 upside?

Travis Sawchik: Oh yes. I have a seat reserved on the bandwagon

Gob Bluth: Is this the year Byron Buxton breaks out?

Travis Sawchik: Yes. At least in the sense that he establishes himself as an above-average regular

Guest: 2013-2014 Puig batflips also he’s amazing 2015-2016 batflips go away he’s not amazing 2017 the batflips back What does this mean?

Travis Sawchik: Let Puig flip the bat

ChiSox2020: Spring training story lines so far?

Travis Sawchik: David Price

NDBrian: Have you seen any StatCast data regarding how quickly middle infielders are able to turn a double play? Regardless, what DP combo stand out as the best at that individual skill?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not sure that I’ve seen that, but there does not seem to be any reason it could not be recorded. As for the second part of your question, I have no idea.

Dominic: Are you going to be attending the SABR analytics conference in Phoenix this weekend?

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to but I’m in Florida

JJ: Keeper question:
H2h Pts league, hitter Ks have no effect
I’m keeping Miggy, Xander, Cano, Darvish
Have to decide on 2 more between Arrieta, Cueto, M Carp, CarGonz…. Leaning 3 SPs and then draft hitter heavy… seems an opposite strategy I’d normally use… thanks for the help!

Travis Sawchik: Man, that’s tough. I like to build around bats.

Travis Sawchik: And what to make of Arrieta’s finish?

Justino: DP combo has to have Russell and Baez at the top of that list, eh?

Travis Sawchik: Baez has amazingly fast hands, so possibly

not dave cameron: How happy are you to see the intentional walk done away with?

Travis Sawchik: That would not have been at the top of my priority list as far as pace issues go

Travis Sawchik: Keep batters in the box!

Ryan: Yoan Moncado…does he have value this year?

Travis Sawchik: He might not be that valuable this year. He could make us way, sort of like Buxton.

IsIt2015Yet?: Have you seen Glasnow pitch yet this year? I find his willingness to use the changeup and 2 seamer so far this spring promising.

Travis Sawchik: I have not seen him pitch yet. But his early work has been encouraging. He’s one of the bigger wild cards in the NL in 2017

Travis Sawchik: Biggest thing is if he’ll throw strikes, of course

Q-Ball: What can we really learn, if anything, from following spring training performances? What are things to pay attention to (velo?) and not pay attention to (ERA?)?

Travis Sawchik: I think velo can be pretty important. Roy Halladay had much diminished velo a couple springs back and it was signal the decline was beginning (and it was steep)… King Felix last year … Lester this spring?

Ferris Buehler: Harvey hit a high of 94 and was in the low 90s. Good progress or worried? He hit 99 coming back from TJ.

Travis Sawchik: I’d be a little concerned

Chaps: Hi Travis! I’m in a keeper league, and I have to drop one of the following pitchers: Hill, Quintana, Fulmer, McCullers, or Hendricks (all for about the same dollar amount). Who would you drop?

Travis Sawchik: Fulmer

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer:

Travis Sawchik: It’s OK. The games don’t count yet

El Duderino: Greg Bird, Aaron Judge are both doing very well this spring SSS, I know. But which do you prefer in 2017?

Travis Sawchik: Bird was intriguing a year ago … And he might have a better chance to have success in 2017 given there should be less concern about his bat-to-ball skills

Bork’s Unborn Son: if you have to temper expectations on Sanchez, then you need to do it for Trea Turner too, guy might hit only 13 homers all year

Travis Sawchik: True

Zack: Can too much analytics ever be a hinderance to team?

Travis Sawchik: I believe I read where we humans can really only carry around seven or so thoughts at a time … So you don’t want to overload players with information. Choose wisely

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: How far are the Braves away from playing many games in October?

Travis Sawchik: Not too far way. I’ll say 2019

Highlighter Bob: Is Johnny Cueto a top 10 SP?

Travis Sawchik: If he’s not, he’s close.

Hank: Seems like a simple question, but I still can’t figure it out, is there any clear favorite out of the top 5 shortstops not named Machado? Correa, Seager, Turner, Lindor, Boagarts… Do you have a favorite? Or are they all pretty similar.

Travis Sawchik: I like Swanson, but you can’t go wrong

Zonk: Do Tommy John injuries happen or manifest more often in ST than during the season? It seems like we always get some early, but maybe that’s lack of other news?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. Might be useful for someone (me?) to do some research on this off Roegele’s TJS database

Jenkins: Mazara or Benintendi for 2017? Beyond?

Travis Sawchik: Benintendi forever

Little person: Do the Mariners finally make the playoffs this year and make it past round 1?

Travis Sawchik: They’ve given themselves a chance, but it’s still below 50%

Babe Lincoln: How much better than last year would Cutch need to be for his 2017 deadline trade value to be higher than his 2016-2017 offseason trade value?

Travis Sawchik: Quite a bit since he’d be down to two months of club control plus an option

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Sell me on Cody Bellinger… At his peak he could be reasonably comped to:____________

Travis Sawchik: Seth Beer

Travis Sawchik: Oh sorry, that’s the next Bellinger … but he could very well become one of the better LHHs in the game

Mike 156: Highlight what you see the game’s greatest vulnerability over the next decade and how you might have MLB adapt to it.

Travis Sawchik: I think the greatest vulnerability is youth participation … Some kids that play the game not only go on to become future ML talent, but the 99.9% that aren’t future MLers are more likely to become future paying customers

Playin’ Games with Swihart: 1. Cubs (101-61)

Playin’ Games with Swihart: Cubs 101 wins. Pirates 84 (miss playoffs). Reds 82 wins. Cardinals 76 wins. Phillies 64 wins. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: Tough to win 100 games …. again. Reds too high, Cardinals too low, Phillies too low, Pirates about right

Brendon: Would you give any more credence to statistics coming from the WBC than spring training?

Travis Sawchik: Competition varies so wildly …. depends on the game and opponent. In certain cases, yes

Ron Gant: They say you need 10 pitching prospects to get 2 good big league pitchers… Braves have gambled on about 10 arms. Which two (or more??) will be the ones to be the ones we look back on as having worked out?

Travis Sawchik: Isn’t that a crazy attrition rate? But it’s a thing. I’d bet on Max Fried

v2micca: A lot of people are convinced that Harper to the Yankees in free agency is a foregone conclusion. Assuming the Nationals aren’t in the mix, what could be a dark horse that comes in and outbids the Yankees for his services.

Travis Sawchik: Phillies

Mitch: Got offered Buxton($8- can be kept three years) and Odubel Herrera($5- can be kept two years) for Rick Porcello($10- can be kept two years)…what side would you rather?

Travis Sawchik: Buxton. BUXTON

Raindog: The playoff projections have the Rays as better than both the Orioles and Yankees. I’m having a hard time believing this, what about you?

Travis Sawchik: AL East is kind of weird…Rays do have SP depth. But the Orioles seem to consistently beat the projections? What are the projections missing with the Orioles?

Raindog: Playoff odds think that only 3 teams in each league have a real chance at a pennant this year. Is this normal?

Travis Sawchik: Probably not. But there are some clear Haves and Have Nots right now

Psych Major: Humans can hold 7 (+/- 2) thoughts in their short term memory at any given time. Don’t overload in the short term, focus on long term retention and understanding — presumably the goal of any idea being implemented on a large scale, anyway.

Travis Sawchik: This

Ferris Buehler: Are you worried at all about Moncada being in the White Sox organization where they don’t teach plate discipline? I’m tempted to sell.

Travis Sawchik: How much can a team teach plate discipline?

sirhaxalot: What do you think about waiting for a value 3B and taking Jake Lamb ~140-150 in a redraft? Seems like he’s a bargain right now

Travis Sawchik: There’s a chance for some profit there, for sure

Larry Williams: The fantasy calculator tells me to take Betts over Trout in a league that counts K’s…but do you believe I should do that?

Travis Sawchik: No. Let’s see Betts hit with that power again first

Travis Sawchik: That music you heard was the national anthem here at Joker Marchant Stadium. I’m back for a few more …

Trainman: What do you see the Mets doing with conforto? It’s clear Bruce won’t be released, and let’s assume Duda, cespedes, Bruce and granderson are healthy to begin the season.

Travis Sawchik: That’s some tough math for Conforto. He might have to wait. But he will hit whenever he gets in the lineup

Hank: Are you expecting a big year from Bautista? I can’t help but think he’s going to rake after everyone has been doubting him and reporting that teams don’t want him.

Travis Sawchik: I really like Bautista this year. His Statcast data suggests he didn’t lose much if anything last season.

Raindog: What the projections miss with the Orioles: luck, bullpen, luck, showalter, bullpen, and luck

John Jones: Trumbo, Dozier, Longo.. biggest chance of a repeat season?

Travis Sawchik: I think Dozier is going to be really good again

Trainman: Does Park steal the DH in Minnesota from Vargas? He’s hit well early. They both should be playing, but Mauer’s albatross contract certainly complicates things. In my opinion, one of the worst contracts in the game besides Pujols.

Travis Sawchik: That Mauer contract certainly complicates things. Long-term deals with tall catchers should probably be avoided

Tim: So Dansby Swanson over Carlos Correa? OKey dokie

Travis Sawchik: Wasn’t Correa included in the five? Maybe I misread the question. I think everyone on the planet would take Correa who is a darkhorse AL MVP candidate

Sterling Archer: Hey Travis, I’m visiting Havana in a few weeks, do you have any insight into attending a beisbol game down there? Gracias

Travis Sawchik: I have a neighbor who is going to Cuba, too. He informed me games are $3 for tourists and 75 cents for locals.

Harrisburg Hal: Will the Pirates once again face the fewest lefty starters, or has that changed?

Travis Sawchik: There are a few more LHP in the NL Central now… but I’m not certain about whether or not that has changed

Yannone: What are the odds Conforto is starting opening day?

Travis Sawchik: The odds seem slim due to the crowd there

John Mallee: For two years, Addison Russell has posted one of the highest IFFB% in the majors. But he’s also very young and talented. If I hope that he can bring that down and improve his BABIP, am setting myself up for disappointment? Can players work on decreasing IFFB%?

Travis Sawchik: Certain players should be able to reduce IFFB% with an alteration to approach/mechanics

Jay: What’s your take on the eventual roll out of StatCast WAR? Anything you are excited or hope to learn about or see from it?

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s a great idea, but it might take some time to roll out a polished version

Binder: Who hits more homers this year, E Encarnacion or Freddie Freeman?

Travis Sawchik: EE

Dan: WHAT IS STATCAST WAR!!??

Travis Sawchik: Stay tuned!

the unintentional intentional: Does Travis d’Arnaud finally stay healthy and have a breakout year in 2017?

Travis Sawchik: Just needs health

Fant Man: 10 team mixed league 5×5. Have to keep 3 of: Freeman at $25, Corey Seager at $17, Polanco at $16, DJ Lemeihu at $10. Whcich 3 to keep ?

Travis Sawchik: Freeman, Seager and DJ

Trainman: Brett Lawrie.. where does he end up? KC seems so obvious.

Travis Sawchik: Not sure. But a better fit than Tampa

Helium: With the impending TJ of David Price, don’t you think the Red Sox could be this season’s biggest disappointment given their astounding lack of depth? Take Sale and Mookie away and you have a very ordinary team. Agreed?

Travis Sawchik: Is it impending? I think the Red Sox are more talented than you’re giving them credit for, but I do wonder if they will regret trading away some of that farm system in the not too distant future

Zymbiote: Who has a better triple slash this season – Kendrys Morales or EE?

Travis Sawchik: EE, but I think Morales will have a nice year in Toronto

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, thanks for the questions. I have to go watch Dylan Bundy throw the Tigers some cutters here in Lakeland, Fla. Same place, time next week