Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat – 1/23/17

12:01
Travis Sawchik: We need to talk

12:01
Travis Sawchik: So let’s get started …

12:01
Bork: Would the MLBPA be wise to fight for a payroll floor more than anything?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: An article I researched related to this very subject was just published on the Site so please check it out….But, yeah, I’m surprised the MLBPA has not fought for a floor given where the owners’ share of revenues has gone, given there is a tax on payroll spending.

12:03
Travis Sawchik: While it’s not a perfect comparison, if MLB had an NBA-style soft cap and floor, there would have been 19 MLB teams under the floor in 2015

12:04
Erik: What happens first, an MLB expansion or an MLB relocation?

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Both are likely inevitable, but I’ll be optimistic and assume stadium deals get done in Oakland and Tampa and we see expansion first

12:05
Erik: Of the list of “top remaining free agents” you included in your latest post, who would you actually want your team to sign for the money they’re likely to get?

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Hammel, maybe? It’s a tough time to be a decent but not great 30-something in the game

12:06
Closet Sox fan in Wrigleyville: Hey Travis. Is Yoan Moncada another overhyped prospect from Cuba? How do you see his first three years progress on the Southside? Is he the second coming of Robbie Cano?

12:07
Travis Sawchik: Patience will probably be a virtue in regard to Moncada

12:07
Travis Sawchik: The K rate is troubling but I’m with Dave Cameron in believing he’ll eventually polish off some holes in his game allowing the overall skill-set to shine.

12:08
Blake: Love the chats so far, Travis. If Michael Conforto were still prospect eligible, where do you think he’d fall on a top 100? (I’m trying to gauge his value)

12:09
Travis Sawchik: Thanks! Conforto would be a top 30 guy for me. Eno has written some interesting stuff on his batted ball profile you should check out if you have not. I believe he is one of the better exit velo guys in the game. Some impressive underlying skills

12:10
Zonk: Matt Wieters……where do you see a potential match?

12:12
Travis Sawchik: Wieters picked an awful time to become a FA for the first time … A time when teams know how poorly he receives pitches. He’ll find a job because teams need catchers and he can throw and hit a little bit. Maybe a reunion with the Orioles makes some sense. Reds, Rockies, Mets, Angels have all been connected. Sadly the 2009 PECOTA dream that was Wieters is not happening

12:13
SouthSider: Zips projection just came out for Pirates. Starting pitching looks shallow. Glasnow/Bell seem to be contributors in 2017. If Pirates are TRULY in a win-now mode, wouldn’t a Quintana for Meadows, Keller, Newman/Hayes trade make a lot of sense for them? They don’t lose anything in 2017, keep two great farm pieces they can build a future around. Get a quality pitcher for 4 years! If they rebuild in 2 years they can flip Quintana and get something back. It’s perfect!

12:14
Travis Sawchik: Quintana does make sense for the Pirates… But the Pirates love Meadows and Keller and I don’t think they would part with both. The Pirates do have the assets to be a legit trade partner with Sox so I wouldn’t rule out a deal from happening.

12:15
Tommy B: With rumors a punishment might finally be coming down soon on the cardinals for hacking the Astros, In your opinion what should the punishment look like?

12:16
Travis Sawchik: There’s no real precedent for cyber crime in baseball and the Cardinals did try to get out in front of this … Maybe a loss of an early-round draft pick for future deterrence?

12:17
Aaron: People have probably asked this question before, but oh well. How good/bad would Babe Ruth be if he played today? Do you think he could hit consistently even against #5 starters?

12:18
Travis Sawchik: Would he becoming via time machine or would have grown up with 21st century strength training and development practices? I think if you can hit you can hit, to a degree, so I’ll bet on the Babe

12:18
Sonny: Beyond Tony Clark how did player’s union team reps perceive their importance and the import of the MLBPA overall? Are player reps aware of role and history of the PA in American labor?

12:19
Travis Sawchik: I think players are generally aware of the history and strength of their union, especially in relation to that of other pro sports. I know the Pirates’ union reps took their role seriously.

12:20
Andrew: What do you think the Braves’ front office was thinking when it was first presented with Swanson and Inciarte (and then some) for Shelby Miller? Was there a “this can’t be real, right?” or “how are dumb are these guys?” moment?

12:22
Travis Sawchik: That offer would test your poker face but I’m guessing it occurred via message/phone …. It looks like one of the great trade heists of the 21st century. To try and be balanced, I don’t think anyone saw Miller performing the way he did last season

12:22
Q-Ball: Does the industry feel like maybe they underestimated the quality of play in the KBO? Once you get past the bat flips, is the competition better than we thought?

12:24
Travis Sawchik: I think the competition is better than many thought … Recall many doubted Jung Ho Kang’s ability to hit velocity and he’s been one of the best fastball hitters in the major since his arrival … That said, there’s still more unknown than answers in S.Korea/KBO in regard to talent but unknowns are where opportunities reside

12:24
Mike: Hi Travis, I’ve been a fan of your work for a while now and I thoroughly enjoyed “Big Data Baseball.” I just want to know when we are going to see your book hit the big screen? I think it would beat “Moneyball” for “Best Sabermetric Related Book to Become a Movie.”

12:25
Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Mike! I am a fan of this idea. Would you like to be involved in casting roles?

12:25
J: Would you rather have a Bondsesque 10 WAR season or a one from Trout? Basically a monster hitter that scares pitchers to death or a great all around player?

12:27
Travis Sawchik: I will say Bonds. We’ve never seen an offensive force like that. I think there was a fear factor there though probably impossible to quantify what it meant.

12:28
Mike M: What are your top 2 cities that should have an MLB team?

12:29
Travis Sawchik: Montreal and probably a domestic spot.

12:29
Travis Sawchik: I think a team would do well in Charlotte or Portland while filling a geographic void on the map for MLB

12:30
Travis Sawchik: Eventually, as it should, MLB wants to get into Mexico.

12:31
John Middleton: It would be great to read an article about how the Phillies rebuild is going faster than anyone could have expected. Would you like to stay at my Palm Beach mansion for a couple of weeks and write that article? Our chef is an amazing cook.

12:31
Travis Sawchik: Hey, John. Would love to.

12:32
Zonk: Is it too soon to think about what Ventura’s passing means for the Royals? They were on the fringe of contention as it was, but have to think they are going to be active sellers now at the deadline with Cain, Moose, and Hosmer hitting FA.

12:32
Travis Sawchik: Too soon. Huge loss on and off the field. We’ve seen too many of these recently (Taveras, Fernandez). Just awful.

12:33
baby bull : Have you looked at the just released ZiPS projections for the Pirates? Any thoughts? Anything Stand out to you?

12:34
Travis Sawchik: Tyler Glasnow as a No. 2 starter jumps out

12:35
Travis Sawchik: The Pirates’ philosophy has been to draft and develop aces (mostly by targeting projectable prep arms) since they’ll never be able to afford top-of-the-rotation arms in free agency. Pirates would love for that to happen (but I have my doubts for it to actualize in 2017)

12:36
Travis Sawchik: Pirates would also like to see McCutchen bounce back as projected: .276/.370/.474 slash 4.1 zWAR 24 HRs

12:36
Tommy B: Were you in PNC when Schwarber sent that ball into the river in 2015 WC game? Yes or Yes was it the farthest homer you’ve seen?

12:37
Travis Sawchik: I was there. I don’t think it landed in the Allegheny on the fly, though. I have seen that happen (Garrett Jones, I believe, was the responsible party)

12:37
Erik: Do you believe in Jose Bautista’s magical anti-aging abilities, or do you think even his dramatically shrunk contract will end up a bad deal for the Jays?

12:38
Travis Sawchik: I really like the deal for the Jays. Bautista’s plate discipline remained in tact and his exit velo was still there (and it suggested he was a bit unlucky on batted balls in 2016). The defense might not be coming back but he can still hit

12:41
baby bull : Hanley is projected to have a great season by Steamer, better than Edwin Encarnacion are you a believer in that ? Hanleys projections (.282/.352/.487)

12:41
Travis Sawchik: EE has averaged 39 HRs the last three years and I’ve seen little sign of a slow down. I like EE. Great fit for Cleveland

12:41
Erik: Do you think that the playoffs will inevitably trend larger and larger for revenue reasons? How long will it be until we have NBA/NHL-style 16-team playoffs? And what do you view as the optimal playoff size from a storyline perspective, not a financial one?

12:43
Travis Sawchik: Has any playoff format every contracted? I think it will grow, eventually … perhaps when the expansion drought ends. With 32 teams, I think six teams in each league is idea with the top two records in each league receiving play-in round byes …similar to NFL model. I think baseball is wise enough not too water down regular season too much

12:43
picking keeper league bench: Best chance to contribute this year? Most value over next 3-5 years? – JP Crawford, Tom Murphy, Brendan Rodgers, Austin Meadows, Victor Robles.

12:45
Travis Sawchik: Long term, I like any middle infielder with an above average bat in Coors Field

12:45
Phil: Hi Travis…I can keep 2 of these 4 -> Realmuto(19th Round), Benintendi(10th Round), Carrasco(6th Round), Nola(18th Round). Which 2 do you think?

12:46
Travis Sawchik: I like Carrasco and Benintendi. Star-level talents

12:47
kevinthecomic: Since it has been brought up a few times in today’s chat, Hardball Times did an excellent piece on potential baseball expansion cities a few years ago. Links here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/examining-potential-mlb-expansion-cities-part-1/ and here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/examining-potential-mlb-expansion-cities-part-2/

12:47
Travis Sawchik: Bump

12:47
El Duderino: I’ve the “if conforto was still a prospect” question in every chat last week. On that topic, if Gary Sanchez was still eligible, where would he land?

12:48
Travis Sawchik: Would he have hit a HR in every Triple-A at bat in the second half? That bat with improved D at catcher would have him the top 10 conversation

12:48
Quincy from Alaska: How does a team handle the terrible death of a teammate. Will the Royals have trouble coping with this throughout the whole season or can they try to rally around this.

12:50
Travis Sawchik: Good question. It’s probably on an individual to individual basis with how players cope. I’m sure Royals will do all they can to help players and coaches with this tragedy.

12:51
El Duderino: When is MLB going to get rid of the 1 game playoff? It seems ridiculous that seasons are decided on that

12:52
Travis Sawchik: I’m not a fan. Would love to see a best-of-three series that involves a double-header … or KBO-style, two-game series where road team has to win both games to advance

12:52
Philip Christy: Do you think baseball can become popular amongst younger people again? Do you think Manfred will be better in this regard than Selig?

12:54
Travis Sawchik: Manfred seems to be focused on this issue and rightly so. I think it can become more popular and needs to become more popular. Pace, more balls in play, more inclusion at youth level can all help. If you play the sport as a kid, you’re more likely to be a paying customer/fan as an adult

12:55
Slamboni: If (maybe when) the Rangers sign Napoli, how close are they to making a legit run in 2017?

12:56
Travis Sawchik: Rangers should be in the mix in the AL West – with rotation health. If Tyson Ross can be what he was in SD, that will be a very significant addition

12:56
PolancoMVP: Miguel Sano- are you a believer? Or is he another version of a Jay Buhner?

12:58
Travis Sawchik: Peak Jay Buhner was pretty good. Preferable to Ken Phelps! I think Sano is going to be a 35-HR, high OBP, high K masher. So I believe

12:58
Hank: How about ZIPS projected 5.08 BB/9 . That doesn’t speak well for the Pirates. A starter can’t have a 12.8 BB%.

1:00
Travis Sawchik: It’s possible Glasnow ends up in a bullpen role but he’ll get every chance as a starter. He has A LOT to polish to be a productive MLB starter let alone a top-of-the rotation one. Control and delivery are major issues as is controlling the run game. He’s been working on his stride this offseason. Watch him in spring training

1:00
YKnotDisco?!: I really enjoy your work. Interesting topics galore.

1:00
Travis Sawchik: Thanks for reading !

1:02
Hector: What kind of factors would you look for to predict a breakout season? I have my mind on Mookie Betts, his transformation from 2015 to 2016. How can we look at a guy’s peripherals and say he is due for a breakout? Related, do you see anyone next season making a similar jump? Xander? Jose Ramirez?

1:04
Travis Sawchik: Good question. Helps to know the quality of the athlete and everyone always loved Betts’ eye-hand skills in addition to his overall athletic skill set. In 2015 he was really good, all around, in his Age 23 season. I’m not sure everyone saw 8 fWAR coming in 2016 … but an elite athlete with bat-to-ball skills is one to bet on

1:04
black dog: Really interesting to see the data in that hardball times article. With more and more professionals (as opposed to the blue collar workers I saw when I was young) attending games, it seems hard to believe that towns with college-educated fans draw more poorly.

1:05
Travis Sawchik: If you’re in the market for college-educated fans, Raleigh-Durham is available for a MLB team

1:05
Bill: Is there a hitter or pitcher you see having a major comeback season? I keep thinking it’s AJ Pollock and Gerritt Cole.

1:05
Choo choo: Do we see 2015 Gerrit Cole this year?

1:06
Travis Sawchik: If Cole’s healthy, I believe we see him closer to 2015 version. Remember, he hurt a rib in January, didn’t have a normal offseason or spring and really never got on track … Pollock is probably a good NL CPOY candidate

1:07
Melky: Austin Meadows for Steven Matz who says no?

1:08
Travis Sawchik: Mets. Matz has already been effective at MLB level … and you’ll generally take the pre-arb, top-of-rotation upside over anything else

1:09
Joe: Why should Montreal get another shot at an MLB team? They stopped attending expos games.

1:09
Travis Sawchik: It was ugly at the end …. but Expos had a number of 2 million + attendance years in the 1980s

1:10
Colt Holt: Regarding expansion, with the value of teams in the largest metro areas going through the roof, wouldn’t expansion in New York, LA, and/or Chicago to lower the earning power of the highest grossing clubs make more sense than adding more low revenue teams that can’t keep up?

1:11
Travis Sawchik: Yes … but lot of territorial rights to deal with. I think a third team in NYC would be pretty cool. I regular subway series in the country’s largest media market would be good for the game’s exposure

1:12
Gest: Should the Yankees try to trade for Trout?

1:12
Travis Sawchik: Adding Trout to some gets from the 2019 free agency class would make the Yankees quite interesting

1:13
Penguin: Do you know of any material that covers how different pitches play off one another?

1:14
Travis Sawchik: I think some have attempted to explore pitch sequencing in the public domain … but I’m not sure there is a ton of great research on the subject. It’s interesting, for sure

1:15
Andrew: Further on Miller: do you think that ATL pushed the price up that high, or do you think Arizona made a preposterous offer and ATL just took it before Arizona changed their mind?

1:15
Travis Sawchik: We need an oral history of the discussions … What is the optimum way to play pocket aces in hold ’em?

1:16
mike sixel: How would a floor work? Let’s say you are rebuilding, and don’t have Mauer….would the Twins just be forced to pay Sano and Buxton more? Because if you are rebuilding, you aren’t signing bad players to block good, young, players.

1:17
Travis Sawchik: This is how the 76ers approached the issue .. http://www.businessinsider.com/philadelphia-76ers-team-salary-hit-nba-salary-floor-2015-10

1:17
JKD: Surprising that Joe Blanton is still on the market? Gotta say I’m pretty shocked – he’s really good!

1:18
Travis Sawchik: I am surprised! He seems to have carved out a niche as a multi-inning reliever … and I thought the game would be doing a better job of bullpen-ing by now

1:19
Ian Connor: Would Dozier on the Dodgers make them the best team in MLB?

1:19
Travis Sawchik: Nah. Still, the Cubs. But I’d love that fit

1:19
Hector: Do you have any beliefs as to why Votto keeps defying the age curve? Year after year (especially the last two years) he has definitely exceeded the projections/expectations. Granted, one of those seasons was after an injury-marred 2014 but I feel like he doesn’t get his due credit, which is surprising considering he has elite plate skills. Do you see him putting in another Votto-esque season this year?

1:20
Travis Sawchik: Plate discipline ages well … And Votto has plus-plus plate discipline. So I think that’s most of it. He’s also a really smart guy/hitter

1:21
Stevil: Do you really think Mexico City is a feasible option for MLB expansion? Those who have spend significant time there, know the safety concerns are very real, and logistics would be a legitimate challenge. I would think that Las Vegas, Charlotte, Montreal, Vancouver, and a few other cities would be more likely. I realize we’re looking at a pick-two scenario, but it’s tough for me to envision Mexico City being one of them.

1:23
Travis Sawchik: I’m not an expert on the viability of Mexico City today. But Manfred wants MLB in Mexico eventually – and I suspect it gets there eventually. It is North America’s largest city and the travel miles are probably on the fringe of acceptability

1:25
The Yankee ginger: What do you think of Clint Frazier? Future all star?

1:26
Travis Sawchik: All-Star is setting the expectation bar pretty high … I think adjust expectation to future regular

1:28
Moltar: A floor would make bad contracts easier to move, no? If you’re a rebuilding team you’ll take on a big salary to reach the floor, even if you end up cutting the guy or playing him on the bench.

1:28
Travis Sawchik: Yes. We see bad contracts moved all the time in the NBA

1:28
Slammajamma: When does Andrew Miller’s arm fall off after 74 regular season innings, 19 postseason innings, and the upcoming WBC?

1:29
Travis Sawchik: That’s still really not that much of workload. Total pitches compared to a starters? I don’t think we know much about the limits of bullpen arms in modern game

1:30
Alec: Please rank the following 3 corner outfielders for 2017 and for their career? Mazara, Dahl and Benintendi.

1:30
Travis Sawchik: I like all three but I love Benintendi

1:30
El Duderino: Chances that in 2020, both Trout and Harper are playing for the yankees? 20%?

1:32
Travis Sawchik: 5% Harper is a decent bet, but it’s still Yankees vs. The Field and if Trout is put on the block it’s Yankees vs. The Field

1:33
Justin: As a Cubs’ fan, I’ve been surprised by their lack of movement on the SP front this offseason. Not that I expected a trade, but I didn’t expect to reach Jan. 23rd and Montgomery was really the only back-end SP option. What do you think the FO’s plan is? Waiting out the market to see what’s left or do they really intend to rely on Montgomery as their 5th starter all year with no depth behind him?

1:34
Travis Sawchik: Cubs don’t have many weaknesses but SP depth could be one….I’m a little surprised it hasn’t been addressed

1:34
Frank: Assuming Pirates don’t make a move, who gets the most innings in the rotation between Kuhl/Brault/Hutchison/other?

1:34
Travis Sawchik: Kuhl

1:34
Weston: How was the Neil Walker-Jon Niese trade viewed by pirates fans at the time of the trade and how did that narrative evolve over the course of 2016?

1:35
Travis Sawchik: It was not popular at the time (remember Walker was a local kid) and it became less popular with Niese’s body of work

1:35
ShawnDC: If everything works out perfectly with Oaklands young pitching and Sonny Gray. Sonny Gray being traded is 100% guaranteed isn’t it?

1:36
Travis Sawchik: There are few certainties in life but Gray getting traded is very likely at some point

1:36
Abner Cadabra : It seems that young players with a refined hit tool seem to be adding power at a more substantial rate than in years passed, perhaps due to the emphasis put on player development. Would you agree that it seems that the younger guys with power first approaches are even riskier than ever before ?

1:37
Travis Sawchik: I know there are many evaluators that believe you acquire the bat-to-ball skills at the amateur level and develop the power. We’re seeing that play out with a number of players, notably Betts

1:38
Rich: Who wins the two NL wild cards in 2017?

1:38
Travis Sawchik: Are going to hold me to this? As of Jan. 23, I’ll say Giants and Cardinals

1:38
Minty: I totally agree on the Moncada patience. If you were the Sox, would you even bring him up before July for seasoning regardless of how he’s hitting?

1:39
Travis Sawchik: Doesn’t seem like this would be the year to rush anyone for the White Sox let alone the game’s top prospect

1:40
Phanatic: Mickey Moniak has a great hit tool and some decent athleticism. What are the chances he develops some good power and becomes an above average MLer

1:41
Travis Sawchik: Good chance, I suspect

1:41
A. Reitz: Shelby Miller has been terrible, but until we see Dansby Swanson put together a solid career it feels premature. That, and Shelby Miller is…26 years old. Coming off 1 bad season.

1:42
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know what happened to Shelby Miller … But l like the odds of Swanson producing more value from here on out

1:43
Tyler: Mexico City is also over 7,000 feet. Would make Denver look like a pitcher park.

1:43
Travis Sawchik: Fans like offense, right?

1:44
JSDee: what’s the best way for padres fans to survive the next 2 – 3 years?

1:44
Travis Sawchik: You have San Diego, that’s a good start

1:44
JV: What’s your opinion on ZIPs projection of Jameson Taillon?

1:45
Travis Sawchik: Seems light on innings but this is an arm that missed 2014 and 2015 to injury

1:46
Bill: Marcus Stroman is fun to watch. Some games he’ll have 10 K’s and other games he has 3 K’s. Last year it felt like he was really working on his pitch mix and trying to generate more K’s. Do you think he can be a high strikeout pitcher going forward?

1:46
Travis Sawchik: 22.7 K% in the second half … He’s always had bat-missing stuff

1:46
Alan: How nervous are you about Arrieta this year after his second half struggles?

1:47
Travis Sawchik: His 2nd half 10.6 K-BB% grabs your attention, but I wouldn’t be too nervous just yet

1:48
Travis Sawchik: That music you hear marks the end of today’s chat. Thanks for all the great questions. I’ll be back next week same place, same time





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

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Ryan13636
7 years ago

Considering the amount of complaining about Coors Field any stadium in Mexico City better have a pressurized dome.