Trevor Story Might Be Going Too Far

Trevor Story was one of the great surprises of 2016. He continues to be of interest early in 2017.

Story has always been a fly-ball hitter, which is an attractive trait for a player who calls Coors Field home. In his eight minor-league stops, Story hit more fly balls than ground balls six times. As a rookie last season, he posted a 0.62 GB/FB ratio and a 47.1 FB%.

This season?

Story has gone full Schimpf on us. He ranks second only to Schimpf in GB/FB ratio and second in GB/FB ratio (minimum 100 plate appearances) since batted-ball ratios have been recorded.

Story was already an extreme fly-ball hitter. Now he’s even more extreme — nearly the most extreme on record.

Learning to Fly: Top GB/FB Ratios Since 2008
# Season Name Team G PA wRC+ GB/FB
1 2017 Ryan Schimpf Padres 26 101 93 0.25
2 2017 Trevor Story Rockies 27 107 62 0.26
3 2010 Rod Barajas – – – 99 339 93 0.29
4 2016 Ryan Schimpf Padres 89 330 129 0.30
5 2011 Rod Barajas Dodgers 98 337 97 0.34
6 2015 Chris Parmelee Orioles 32 102 82 0.37
7 2011 Henry Blanco Diamondbacks 37 112 132 0.38
8 2008 Russell Branyan Brewers 50 152 133 0.38
9 2012 Rod Barajas Pirates 104 361 70 0.42
10 2013 Scott Hairston – – – 85 174 73 0.44
11 2009 Mat Gamel Brewers 61 148 100 0.45
12 2009 Chris Young Diamondbacks 134 501 82 0.47
13 2016 David Wright Mets 37 164 117 0.48
14 2010 Jason Varitek Red Sox 39 123 96 0.48
15 2010 Aramis Ramirez Cubs 124 507 94 0.48
16 2017 Joey Gallo Rangers 28 105 129 0.48
17 2007 Jonny Gomes Devil Rays 107 394 104 0.50
18 2017 Jose Bautista Blue Jays 28 125 79 0.50
19 2014 Anthony Recker Mets 58 189 75 0.51
20 2010 Shelley Duncan Indians 85 259 102 0.51
Numbers entering play on Thursday.

Story’s proclivity for fly balls doesn’t appear to be the result of fluky, early-season sample size. Consider: his average launch angle is 32 degrees, nearly double his 2016 average (16.7 degrees). A number of batted-ball metrics are near stabilization points. In the majors, Story ranks second only to Schimpf (33.1 degrees) in average launch angle. I haven’t seen any reports on Story’s apparent swing alterations or changes to philosophy early this season, but it appears as though he’s up to something.

We’ve written quite a bit about the uppercut philosophy this spring, and more and more MLB hitters appear to be buying in. The league’s average launch angle has inched up from 10.0 degrees in 2015, to 10.6 degrees in 2016, to 10.9 in 2017.

The question is, when does a hitter become too extreme in approach?

Story’s strikeout rate now sits just under 40%. His swinging-strike rate is above 16%. He’s hit a ton of infield pop ups — which of course, aren’t great for a player’s BABIP. Story has a .170/.278/.404 slash line.

Is Story too extreme? Earlier this week Eno Sarris considered whether hitters might have their own ideal launch angles at which exit velocity peaks.

Story has an average exit velocity this season of 89.3 mph, about the MLB average. But his 95 mph average exit velo on fly balls is above the league average (91.5 mph) by that particular measure. Story appears to be acting rationally if he is, indeed, in search of maximizing his fly-ball output and slugging percentage.

But there are consequences for any change in plans or swing plane.

Story’s whiff rate on four-seam fastballs has increased from 11.1% to nearly 14% as pitchers appear to be working him up in the zone more often with four-seamers, perhaps getting over the top of his lofted swing.

Consider the location of four-seam fastballs against Story in 2016 via this Baseball Savant heat map:

And consider the location of four-seam fastballs against Story in 2017:

17

Here are Story’s whiffs on four-seam fastballs in 2016:

And Story’s whiffs on four-seam fastballs in 2017:

Again, those locations are generally elevated or above the zone.

Story told the Denver Post that he isn’t concerned about his early-season strikeout totals:

“It’s early, and I’ve missed a lot of pitches that I should have put in play,” Story said. “So I can see my strikeouts going down soon. I’m missing some pitches just a tick, fouling them off. But I think I’m seeing the ball well and I’m really close.”

Then there’s the pop-up issue. While fly balls are generally a good thing, infield pop ups certainly are not — and his infield-fly rate has jumped from 8.8% last season to 22.9% in early May.

Story is still hitting a fair amount of home runs with six on the season and an HR/FB of 17.3%. When he connects, it’s pleasing to the eye. He certainly appears to have a swing designed to lift:

While he’s hitting home runs, his strikeouts are up, perhaps with pitchers trying get above a swing designed for loft. His infield pop ups are up. His line-drive rate sits at a paltry 15.4%.

We can understand why Story is chasing fly balls, why he’s trying to become an even more extreme fly-ball hitter. But perhaps he’s reached a point of diminishing returns. Maybe Story is really just a tick off, maybe he will soon be driving more balls out of the park and reducing his strikeout rate. We’ll see. But perhaps Story is more likely evidence that you can go too far in search of the fly ball, the home run, in regard to any approach.





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

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sadtrombonemember
6 years ago

I think Eno’s point that every hitter has an ideal swing–and that differs depending on the individual’s coordination, height, distribution of strength, etc–is absolutely correct. But part of the key to understanding it is that when you change your swing a lot of things could change other than the launch angle. I’m really skeptical of any one-size-fits-all approach to something like hitting a baseball which requires that much amount of coordination and involves players with different heights, strength, reaction time, arm length, and so on.