Troy Tulowitzki, At What Cost?
The St. Louis Cardinals need a shortstop and have a surplus of talent with no obvious places to fit onto their roster. The Colorado Rockies have a superstar shortstop but need more good players than they currently have. These facts have people — including noted scribe Ken Rosenthal — speculating about what a Tulowitzki-to-STL deal might look like. In fact, it is probably now the most interesting trade rumor of the off-season.
For their part, the Rockies say that they aren’t interested in trading Tulowitzki. When you have one of the best players in the game signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game, there shouldn’t be a huge sense of urgency to unload said player and contract. Over the summer, I rated Tulowitzki as the 13th most valuable trade chip in baseball, sliding in between Miguel Cabrera and Stephen Strasburg. For the Rockies to move Tulowitzki, the offer would have to be substantial.
The Cardinals have substantial talent though. Matt Adams looks like a nice player, but he’s blocked by Allen Craig at first base. Trevor Rosenthal wants to start, but there isn’t an obvious spot for him in the rotation at the moment. If Jaime Garcia is healthy by next spring, the Cardinals won’t even have room for all the starters they already have, not even counting the potential for Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez to transition back out of the bullpen. The team also has Kolten Wong now blocked by Matt Carpenter at second base, and if they end up re-signing Carlos Beltran, they’ll probably have to trade Jon Jay whenever Oscar Taveras proves ready for the big leagues.
So, yeah, the Cardinals have expendable talent that is basically the envy of every team in the sport. They have enough depth that they can probably target any player they want and make a serious offer that at least forces the other club to listen. The real question, though, is should they?
Tulowitzki is a great player, even with his regular health problems that limit his playing time. Steamer projects him as a +5.5 WAR player over 600 plate appearances in 2014, and even if we knock that down to 500 PA — that’s about what his career average per season is — that still puts him in the +5 WAR range, and +5 WAR over 500 PA is better than +5 WAR over 700 PA, because there is room for the player who takes the missing playing time to add value as well. Tulowitzki paired with a reasonable backup projects as something like a +6 WAR combination. That’s excellent, clearly. Better than any possible alternative the Cardinals could explore, in terms of expected production. Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball, and it isn’t even really close.
But before we simply suggest that the Cardinals should just pay whatever it takes to get Tulowitzki because he’s the best, we have to at least understand the relative cost differences between trading for him and pursuing a lower cost alternative. The options on the table aren’t Tulowtizki or another season of Pete Kozma; it’s Tulowitzki or pursuing a lower key acquisition that would represent a more minor but still significant upgrade.
Let’s start with the easiest comparison; Stephen Drew, the top shortstop on the free agent market. The FanGraphs crowd expects Stephen Drew to sign for $33 million over three years, and signing him away from the Red Sox would cost the Cardinals their first round pick in next year’s draft, which currently stands 31st overall. Let’s assume that, to actually win the bidding, the Cardinals would need to add on an extra year to that expectation, so let’s say Drew would cost $44 million over four years, plus the draft pick. If we put a huge amount of value on that pick — the Cardinals have historically been very good at turning picks into assets — than maybe we bump the total cost of adding Drew for the next four years up to $50 million.
Over those same four years, Tulowitzki will command $76 million in salary, plus a $2 million assignment bonus that he gets if he’s traded. And then, beyond those four years, he’s due an additional $58 million for three more seasons, which would cover his seasons from ages 33 to 35, plus a buyout of the option for his age-36 season. It’s certainly possible that Tulowitzki will be worth $19 million per year from 2018 to 2020, but those seasons have to be seen as a liability at this point, not an asset. For a player with his durability issues, guaranteeing years 5-7, even at discounted prices, is probably not something a team should want on their books.
So, just in terms of price, Tulowitzki already costs an extra $30 million in salary for the expected length of Drew’s contract, and then comes with some kind of negative value for the extra guaranteed years at the end. Depending on how risk averse you are in terms of long term commitments, maybe you’d value those as something like $10 or $20 million of additional costs, so we could push Tulo’s total cost up to $40 or $50 million more than Drew. Basically, he’d be twice as expensive.
But he’s more than twice as good. Steamer projects Drew to be worth +2.0 WAR over 600 plate appearances next year, which is an exact match for his career average. $44 million (plus the value of the forfeited draft pick) doesn’t get you anywhere near the production of Tulowitzki at $78 million (plus the value of the extra salary commitments), and that’s before opening the whole can of worms about whether additional wins constrained within one player should be valued linearly or exponentially. And this is why the Rockies are going to want so much for Tulowitzki. It’s not like they can just trade him, then easily acquire another shortstop at a lesser price that will give them most of what they lose by trading Tulowitzki away. He has a lot of trade value because he’s basically irreplaceable.
But that doesn’t make him infinitely valuable, and it doesn’t mean that the Cardinals should just start throwing good young talent overboard because he’s the best they can do. If we accept the projections, then Drew instead of Tulowitzki leaves roughly a +3 WAR gap, and the salary difference isn’t enough to expect the Cardinals to be able to make up those missing wins by signing another player to fill a hole. But those dollars do have value, and we’re talking about an annual salary difference of $8 million per year, not even counting the extra commitment Tulo requires that Drew would not. Even if you think that the Cardinals would have to waste that money on a free agent who isn’t a dramatic upgrade over what they currently have, that should be expected to buy them at least one win, and perhaps two if they spend it well. The salary difference alone does make up a significant chunk of the gap between the two shortstops.
And that’s before we get to the talent going to Colorado. Rosenthal suggests that a deal should include Allen Craig, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and a fourth prospect, with the Rockies picking up “a chunk” of Tulowitzki’s remaining contract to sweeten the pot. I like Ken Rosenthal a lot, and I say this with all due respect, but that would be absurdly slanted in favor of the Rockies.
Craig, by himself, projects as a +3 WAR player for 2013, and he’s due to make just $2.8 million in salary next year. Miller projects as a +2 WAR starting pitcher, and will make something close to $500,000. Rosenthal projects as +1 WAR reliever, and again, league minimum. The three of them combine to project for about +6 WAR at $4 million in salary, or essentially, 100% of the value of Tulowitzki’s personal performance for about 25% of the cost.
Yes, you can make a case that it’s better to have +6 WAR in one player than +6 WAR from three players, especially when you have the depth that the Cardinals have. Matt Adams could replace Craig, and not be awful. Jaime Garcia could replace Miller, and might be good too. Carlos Martinez could replace Rosenthal at closer. The Cardinals wouldn’t replacing these guys with +0 WAR players. But these would all be downgrades, and not just at those three spots, because they’d also have to replace the three replacements. We can’t just ignore the fact that the Cardinals would be losing significant value in having Adams as a part-time player and bench depth, or that keeping Miller means that the Cardinals wouldn’t have to scramble for starting pitchers when the injury prone Garcia lands on the DL again. Or that not having Rosenthal around would significantly weaken the team’s bullpen, as Rosenthal and Martinez is better than just Martinez.
Maybe this isn’t a +6 WAR downgrade, since the Cardinals have viable replacements. But it’s probably at least a +3 WAR downgrade, since in each case the replacement — and the cascade effect of replacing the replacement — puts inferior players into more prominent roles. Tulowitzki and the replacements might project out to +9 WAR or so, but guess what, so does signing Drew and keeping those guys in their current roles, and using the cost savings to find another useful outfielder. I don’t see any real way in which trading that package of players for Tulowitzki actually makes the Cardinals a better team than signing Drew, and that’s just considering 2014 value, not any of the long term value that the team would be punting by trading some of their best young talent.
That kind of price just doesn’t make any sense for St. Louis. In fact, I’d suggest that they probably shouldn’t even bother trying to talk the Rockies out of their star shortstop, even if they decide Drew is not the piece that they want. If they really want to spend $130 million over seven years on a +5 WAR player, just sign Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, and then use Jon Jay as bait to get a decent stopgap shortstop. Same net effect on the team, but you get to keep Miller, Rosenthal, and Adams as well.
Troy Tulowitzki is a great player, and is an extremely valuable trade chip. But let’s keep in mind the magnitude of the improvement. For basically half the salary, the Cardinals could simply sign a decent free agent shortstop and keep all their good young players, making up the missing value through adding an additional outfielder to go with Stephen Drew and not depleting their depth through trade. Or they could make a big splash by signing a different high quality free agent and making a less obvious trade that filled their shortstop hole temporarily. Or they could ship off one of their extra starting pitchers for an underrated shortstop like Erick Aybar.
It isn’t Tulowitzki or bust for the Cardinals, and there’s no need for them to pay an exorbitant price just to get the best shortstop possible. The Cardinals have sustained a winning team because they emphasized value over splash. Troy Tulowitzki would be a big splash, but at the rumored price, he’d do more harm than good. There are better paths to long term success than mortgaging the future for one player, even a great player like Tulowitzki.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dave, I agree on your analysis from the Card’s standpoint. I think the Rockies would demand a big package like Rosenthal suggested, or risk hugely alienating their fans.
So this deal is very unlikely to happen.
Now if someone wants to talk about a trade centered around Salazar and Profar…
I am going on record here, The Cardinals will not trade for Troy Tulowitzki. It isn’t the Cardinal way. They don’t need him. They won’t make an attempt to sign Drew either.
If that isn’t the most arrogant statement I’ve ever seen, idk what is.
“I am the greatest and most important human being to have ever lived. All of the rest of you are simply moths vainly fluttering around the flame of my glory.”
Arrogant statements are the Cardinal way.
alright guys, we have it on record from JoelAT. any other predictions for us, Joel?
Well, I say the Cardinals WILL trade for Tulo. (All together) Put it on the boooooaaaard.
(Put it on the board.)
I predict the sun will continue to rise in the East, until it doesn’t.
It’s true they don’t need him.
However, what is the “Cardinal Way”?
The Cardinal Way is being about as successful as most other top tier teams but thinking you do it in a much classier way because you have a lower payroll and are in the Midwest. Also, your fans are the most knowledgable and gracious in the game.
Bullshit basically.
Respectfully Mr. Bananas, I don’t think “the Cardinal way” is male cow excrement. Whatever it means, it seems to be working since the organization’s ability to produce young talent and make good trades is extremely enviable. They (much like the Braves) seem very good at building for the future while winning in the present and sustaining a good run of success.
Also, I don’t know about most knowledgeable, but my anecdotal experience with Cardinals fans has been that they are more gracious on average than other fan bases.
As an organization, yes. They may be the best overall organization in baseball. Stacked farm, stacked current roster, high attendance, good money, smart office. The cardinal way of their fans is more what I was referring to.
You are wrong, their fans aren’t more gracious. Anyone who talks them self up as much as cards fans (most other fans talk up he team) is not gracious
I concede that you bring up an interesting point. Tooting your own horn is not particularly gracious. My personal experience still holds, but it does seem there are some who like to brag about themselves. It’s probably not worth losing sleep over either way.
The Cardinal Way is an approach to player development put together largely by long-time Cardinals minor league instructor George Kissell. It is a codified version of “the fundamentals” – dealing with everything from infield positioning to off-field responsibilities – drilled into developing Cardinals players (literally every player in the organization receives an 86-page handbook in their locker each Spring).
As for Mr. Bananas’ assertion that it’s all bullshit about Cards’ fans patting themselves on the back – that was a meme that got knocked around a lot this past Fall, has very little evidence to support it, and is mostly based in the kind of flawed, anecdotal logic that its advocates usually abhor.
People who refer to Cardinals fans as the “best fans in baseball”: media simpletons, some of the players (this happens in every MLB city), and people with an irrational hatred of the Cardinals and their fans.
People who don’t refer to Cardinals fans as the “best fans in baseball”: the overwhelming majority of actual Cardinals fans, most other sane humans.
JoelAT is right. The Rockies will not accept me as a trade piece.
I’m a Cardinals fan, but you don’t need to act pretentious when saying “the Cardinal Way.” Your comment s certainly not the Cardinal way. It’s not like we haven’t traded a big package of prospects away recently i.e. Holliday. FYI many of our Cardinal great, or my favorites at least, were acquired through trades (Brock, Ozzie, Big Mac, Willie, Torre, Sutter, Rolen, Edmonds,Waino).
Mozeliak hasn’t. Who is the guy who would be making the decision.
Some people may be too quick to discount a joking “Cardinal Way” in this post…
This comment is very Cardinal Wayee
Personally, I didn’t find JoelAT’s comment THAT offensive. He’s making a prediction. He is doing it with a great deal of personal certainty. It may be a debatable point, but he didn’t predict anything stupidly.
This is all very logical and a good case against selling the farm for Tulo, but after watching Kozma all last year the idea of Tulo starting at short is soooooooo enticing.
From the article: “Tulowitzki paired with a reasonable backup projects as something like a +6 WAR combination.”
Why should a backup shortstop be expected to produce 1WAR in 200 PA? That’s a 3 WAR player over the course of a full season. Is there some platoon or defensive replacement situation that makes backup players more productive than average starters?
Well we know who the backup is going to be……
Greg Garcia? I think there’s a very good chance the Cardinals start the year without Kozma on the 25-man.
yes, being able to use players solely in situations that play to their strengths can make them very valuable
If they’re really only being used in situations where Tulowitzki is hurt, though, are they only being used in situations that play to their strengths? It’s not like these guys are going to get 200 PA as a defensive replacement, they’re getting 200 PA as a full time replacement for an injured starter.
I had the same problem. Apparently Drew is less than qualified to be a reasonable backup. And, the backup here will not be deployed in situations that play to his strengths if he is forced into duty as a result of Tulo’s unavailability.
This was my instant reaction.
If you think Tulo over a full season is a 6 win player. Then him + another player producing 6 wins would put them at similar skill levels.
The only way this would makes sense is if you had a muli-position starter or very high quality backup that could seemlessly slide into SS if/when Tulo got hurt
If the backup SS can produce 1 WAR in ~150PA’s, he probably should be starting somewhere.
Good point about the backup. Also, since when does 5.5 WAR for 600 PA’s equate to 5 WAR for 500? More like 4.5 to 4.6 by my math. So to get that full 6 WAR described by Dave from the 700 PA’s, the backup would have to provide 1.4 to 1.5 WAR in just 200 PA’s. Now THAT would be some kinda benchwarmer.
And Tulo is on “one of the most team-friendly” contracts? At roughly $19M per year for several seasons, for an arguably injury-prone shortstop entering his 30’s? I’d say the fairly massive contract is money-neutral at best, relative to his immense talent/at least medium risk/encroaching baseball middle agedness.
I really, really got the impression someone was trying to sell me something, over the first few paragraphs of the article.
Great post, but I wish you would have used a more realistic trade scenario as the baseline for your analysis. I doubt there’s anyone anywhere other than Colorado who wanted the Craig/Miller/Rosenthal/Adams deal to happen. A more realistic trade offer that somebody posted in Dan’s chat today would be Miller/Adams/Kelly (Miller/Adams/x really), and I really think that’s a reasonable deal for both sides.
Anything including both Miller and Adams is lunacy without significant cash heading the other way.
I think you might be vastly overrating Adams, and underrating Tulo.
They combine for, what, 4 WAR at $1M? Something tells me that’s the better option unless money’s headed back to St. Louis.
That would be the case if the goal were to get the most WAR per dollar spent, but it’s not.
The goal is absolutely to get the best production for the cheapest option possible, especially when the improvements from Tulo to Miller+Adams are pretty minimal and comes at an extra $15M+
The Cardinals are in a situation where it’s very difficult to maximize WAR/$ in the FA market. Simply put: they have too much money to spend, and too few open roster spots. The goal now should be to maximize wins while staying in budget.
Adams’ wOBA and wRC+ put him in the top ten of MLB first basemen if he gets a full season of plate appearances, which he will next year, either with the Cardinals or someone else.
But what I’m really doing is valuing years of cheap control higher than the 30-36 seasons of an oft-injured shortstop. If the Rockies want the moon and stars for Tulo (and they most assuredly do), this trade doesn’t happen without significant cash going back.
If there were no other options at SS out there, maybe, but there are several.
Ultimately, this is nonsense for sportswriters to salivate over for the next couple of months.
I agree. And there are some pieces that would be more valuable to the Rockies than to the Cardinals due to their skillsets. A package of Martinez/Miller, Siegrist, Adams and Maness is a very competitive offer but impacts the Cardinals’ roster and future far less than the one proposed.
Maness is a middle reliever for the Cards, but could have significant value to the Rockies as a swingman or #3-4 starter given his extreme groundball rates. Siegrist has the potential to be an elite reliever or a back end starter, but the Cardinals have him somewhat blocked in both capacities.
To clarify, I agree with shannon… I don’t necessarily agree with olethros. I wouldn’t consider it lunacy because of the Cardinals’ depth and the fact that the contract isn’t seen as a particularly bad one… As Dave put it in the article, Tulo is “one of the best players in the game signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game”…
Problem is that Miller (and Rosenthal too) is quite unsuited for Coors – flyball pitcher who depends almost entirely on a 4-seam fastball. At Coors, he will get killed in longer stretches and is, best case, a reliever. So his name simply adds near-useless speculation “value” to a possible trade.
I can see Carlos Martinez or Lance Lynn working at Coors — Jaime Garcia too but that has a big asterisk. And those have lower trade value and wouldn’t really be a centerpiece of any trade for Tulo.
The way this makes sense for the Cards is if they put a package together of lower to mid level minor league talent, and kept the major league, and upper tier players in the system. Col doesn’t see themselves as the Stros though so they don’t want future talent, since they think they can compete now.
Well, yeah, it does make sense for the Cards if the Rockies were inclined to make a horrible deal.
I think he was saying it works better for the Cards if their elite prospects were in A-ball rather than AAA. They aren’t, though, so it’s not really worth talking about.
The Rockies aren’t rebuilding so they would not be very interested in guys further from the majors. Stl makes more sense if they don’t deal from there own major league depth.
I’m in agreement that the Cards management is definitely smart enough to avoid this. They know their market better than anyone, and while they draw solid attendance numbers, it is one of the smallest TV markets in all of baseball and outside of the national TV deal, they can’t waist resources on aging past-their-prime players like larger markets with massive TV deals.
How do you figure one of the smallest TV markets? Do you think games are only shown in St. Louis city limits?
The last numbers I saw, granted it was over a year ago and I can’t seem to find them now, the Cards were in the bottom 3rd of viewership numbers despite being a very successful franchise for a long time.
The problem is the coverage. I’d love to watch my Cards in Boston, but I’m stuck with the Sox on NESN (perhaps “stuck” is a bit strong, but you get the point)
They’re doing amazing things with MLB ticket. Look into it.
When I look at the cards broadcast territory it stretches into something like 10 different states. It covers Memphis, Tulsa, and some other mid sized cities. That surprises me. Link?
They were in the bottom 3 of TOTAL viewers but consistently at or near the very top in terms of market SHARE. It’s b/c they’re starting with a smaller overall market.
And Bananas, TV markets are not determined solely by city size (it has to do with a region where populations are receiving the same broadcast signal). It is how advertisers determine rates, and it’s the main reason the Cardinals generate very little revenue from their TV contract (and very high revenue from ticket sales, merchandising, etc.).
The only way this makes sense for the Cardinals is a one for one trade of Tulo for either Miller or Adams. Any further notable players included by the Cardinals need to cost the Rockies ~$20 million per.
The same is true of any potential deal with the Rangers.
Backup first baseman fit the best shortstop on the game (with a reasonable contract) straight up. I’m actually reading that correctly? Um…Try Again
Read what he wrote, not what you thought. That’s the only way this trade makes sense “for the Cardinals”, not the only way it makes sense, period. You are correct that it doesn’t make sense for the Rockies that way, and that’s why the trade is unlikely to happen: for a deal to be worked out, it must make sense for both teams.
No, I read it correctly. It’s incredibly unreasonable and inaccurate to say giving up anything more than a back up first baseman for the best shortstop in the game is too much. Adams and Descalso for Tulo doesn’t work for St Louis then?
But there’s lots of deals that make sense for the Cardinals and only the Cardinals. Pete Kozma for Tulo, straight up. Random Single-A player for Mike Trout. Don’t think it’s doing to happen that way though.
Don’t be obtuse. A trade for Adams and Descalso is a trade for Adams, period, and the Descalso part, from the Cardinals’ perspective, is addition by subtraction. He covered that with the part about “notable” players.
The basic point, which was also the point of Dave’s article, still stands: for a trade to occur, it must make sense for both teams. Trading Tulo for Adams, or Adams and any number of nonentities, doesn’t make sense for Colorado. Trading Adams plus a good player in the Miller/Rosenthal/etc. class for Tulo doesn’t make sense for St. Louis.
Andrew, it’s also incredibly unreasonable to expect the Cardinals to give up multiple pieces of top tier major league talent under team control for 5 more years at pre-arb/arb prices for a single high cost player at the wrong end of the aging curve. Especially one with Tulo’s injury history. Put it this way: If the Cardinals come out of the gate offering Miller, Adams, and any other player currently on the 40 man, the Rockies only hesitate to make the deal because they have to finish ejaculating.
Adams starts for 20 teams in the league, and will be starting in 2014, either in St. Louis or elsewhere.
I don’t consider $20M/yr for the age 33-36 seasons of an injury prone SS reasonable. Maybe the Cardinals do, but I doubt it.
Yeah, sure, if it was just some random injury-prone shortstop. I don’t consider the age-39 season of an injury-prone outfielder with mediocre defense worth 18 million, but it’s great if it’s Barry Bonds. You can’t just ignore the identity of the actual player being discussed. Obviously if you trade for Tulo now you’re doing it mostly for the next two or three years, and you expect him to decline in value going forward. But the next couple of years are a huge bargain for one of the best players in the game. His contract is team-friendly enough that even a decline wont be a huge overpay, unless he completely falls off or suffers a major injury. The trade discussed in the article is obviously terrible for the Cards, but your proposal would be such a steal that the Cards might turn it down just assuming Tulo was found dead earlier that morning.
ah.
ahaha.
ahahaha.
oh, you were serious?
Hey Dave,
What an excellent article. I think a trade or maybe even a sign and trade for JJ Hardy might be more palatable for the Redbirds. What do you think that would look like as far as prospects and do you see that as even a remote possibility?
What does this even mean? There are no “sign and trades” in MLB and Hardy’s not even a free agent, so the Cards can’t sign him even if they were inclined to.
Sorry. I’m a little new at this. Could the Orioles extend JJ Harday and then trade him to the Cardinals?
It usually works that the team acquiring the player can try and work out the extension. It often seems to be the case that the broad parameters of the extension are in place when the trade is agreed – as with the Dickey trade last year.
Good article. I don’t think the prospects are quite as blocked as it might seem though.
Beltran isn’t coming back, so that provides an opening for Adams. Jay and Freese are all that stand in the way of Taveras and Wong, respectively, and both those guys are getting more expensive but not better at baseball.
The rotation is Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, Garcia, Martinez, and Kelly. Garcia is 50/50 to be an effective pitcher again. If you accept that Kelly’s best position is 6th starter, the Cardinals have five and a half guys competing for five spots.
please no craig in outfield
The smarter trade is to give up a decent prospect/reliever for Alexei Ramirez. Short term deal at $10 million per season. That makes more sense than taking on Tulowitzki’s deal and giving up the farm.
Right, but how much of an upgrade is Ramirez at this point in his career… maybe one to one and a half wins? If the cardinals felt aybar or ramirez were viable candidates to help the team win, those deals would likely have been made at the deadline when the Cardinals were approaching a playoff run. The Cardinals’ lack of activity at the deadline, at least to me, indicates that they had their eyes on a BIG target. Whether that be Tulo, Andrus, or someone else, they obviously didn’t want to fill that spot with a mediocre short-term fix down the stretch last year because of the implications for this year and beyond.
How much of a upgrade? A pretty safe 2-win upgrade. With the potential for a little more than that (factoring in either better Ramierez or worse Kozma). That’s nothing to sneeze at.
Your hypothetical reason for no trades in July are intriguing but *oddly* narrowly focused on making your original point. We have no idea why the Cardinals didn’t improve as SS. There are a lot of theories that would disprove your Ramierez isn’t god enough argument.
Very few people are expecting “a little better” Ramirez this year. Also, “a little worse Kozma” would never be offered a full season of at-bats, so that historically bad year will be incredibly difficult to repeat. To the original point, giving up 6 years of control of even one legitimate prospect PLUS paying 10 million dollars in contract money for a 1-2 win upgrade seems like equal or negative value. And again, if a team is going to overpay for such a relatively small upgrade they would do it FOR the playoff push rather than suffering through a playoff run and making the trade a few months later.
I agree with this. Have we forgotten that the Cards made it to the WS with Kozma? A slight upgrade like Ramirez may be all that’s needed to get back, especially if they can keep most of their youth movement intact. Wonder if CHW would be willing to do Kelly + some lower level minor leaguers for Ramirez? The Angels could be interested in a similar deal for Aybar.
The White Sox wanted Carlos Martinez for Ramirez.
Hahaha and the White Sox were dreaming when thinking Rameriez is good enough to return Carlos AMrinez straight up. Apparently the White Sox need need re calibrate their idea of trade value because they traded away Jake Peavy, a really nice piece, for Avisail Garcia. Now talk about mismanaging your assets.
yep this was the funniest trade expectation I’ve seen in a while
How does Tulo have one of the best contracts in the game if he isn’t worth the marginal difference of just signing a generic player like Drew?
because you have to give up a huge amount of talent to acquire that contract
Right. His contract is wonderful if you’re the team already holding it, but it would cost you very dearly to try to acquire it.
Ugh. My first reaction when I saw that proposed package was that it wasn’t enough. Maybe I’m too high on Tulo.
But I don;t like a WAR total as a catch-all metric here, and not because of “intangibles,” but because of context. It doesn’t make sense to measure the contributions of a specific team with a context-neutral statistic — the fact is that the Cards aren’t going to get all that WAR from those 4 players because there is no place to put them. The Cardinals biggest production hole is SS — the difference between Tulo and Kozma must be compared to the difference between Rosenthal/Adams/etc. and their replacements. The Cardinals’ depth makes these guys expendable because the 2014 club won’t feel the total “loss” of the players that would move.
But yeah, I mean you could sign Stephen Drew and maybe still come out ahead. Not saying Tulo is the right move, but I think it’s a lot closer than you illustrated in the piece.
This
The problem though is you didn’t consider the money situation either. Tulo probably produces some surplus value for the rest of his contract, but guys like Miller/Adams/Rosenthal are projected to create a bunch of surplus value over the next five years.
And as the article notes, depth is important. It was huge having Adams to step in when Holiday and Craig were hurt, and when Beltran, Holiday, or Craig needed a day off. Not to mention being our main PH hitter when he wasn’t playing.
The Cardinals may have a lot of pitching prospects but they needed exactly all of them this year. This is a team that gave Jake Westbrook 19 starts this year. A team that lost it’s ace and closer before the season started and lost another important piece of its rotation just a month into the season. Pitching depth is very important because of the variability in pitching injuries.
The Cardinals would only have more pitching then they need if they have a freak season and everyone stays healthy.
Best. Post. Ever.
Are you arguing that WAR in one position is not interchangeable with WAR in another? Concentrated WAR distributed as 6.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 is better than 3.0 4.0. 3.0 1.0? Because this is where the current math brings us. It’s paying a premium to get equal aggregate WAR.
If you are saying that St. Louis can get even better aggregate WAR with Tulo, then it’s there to make the argument that the marginal upgrade on aggregate WAR is worth the marginal costs and that it’s possible.
It’s commonly observed that marginal WAR upgrades for a championship class team is worth more than the same marginal WAR upgrade for a bottom-dweller team. This is why lots of trades happen. The winning teams are looking for star power and are willing to trade away the future and expendable everyday player players for that marginal WAR improvements on their roster.
No, I’m saying that playing time and replacement incumbent need to be factored in more heavily. I’m saying we need to consider the context of team construction, not the context of event distribution. The Cards are giving up WAR that they wouldn’t realize anyway because they have similar or better players in those positions already to gain WAR they will fully realize by gaining a premier SS to replace a roughly replacement level SS.
I agree with the thought that WAR is “context neutral.” 1 or 2 WAR for the Cards might well mean a World Series win. 6 WAR for the Rockies still doesn’t get them sniffing the playoffs. So it’s not unreasonable to expect the Cards to pay what may seem on the surface an unreasonable amount to come out just a couple of WAR ahead.
From the Rox perspective this deal is interesting because they get 3 guys for a fraction of Tulo’s cost, which then allows them to also sign a FA or two.
Agree. For some odd reason unknown to saber, WAR sitting on the bench doesn’t actually produce actual wins in the game of baseball.
WAR is cumulative. There is, by definition, no such thing as WAR sitting on the bench. For some odd reason jfree is incapable of understanding concepts prior to criticizing them.
That’s exactly his point. He’s saying it won;t be accumulated if the players are on the bench.
Miller, Adams, and Rosenthal won’t be sitting on the bench, they’ll be starting (or closing, in Rosie’s case). The basic proposal here is that the Cardinals give up their starting 1B, #2 starter, and closer, all of whom come with 5 years of team control at non-market rates, in exchange for (one hell of a) SS on the wrong side of 30 who costs $20M/year and already misses 25% of every season. Two years ago all three of those players for Tulo was sensible. Now, not so much.
Just turning to this article after a discussion with my friend, and I’ve a nit worth picking. How is Stephen Drew the best SS FA on the market? Jhonny Peralta is less than a year older, offers comparable defensive ability, better bat, less injury history, and doesn’t require giving up a draft pick…
I agree, but maybe the PED suspension scares teams off to the extent that Drew has more value on the market now.
I think there is some worry that Peralta may have to move off of shortstop in the near future (2-3 years). He is a worse defender and has a bigger body than Drew. He is also a year older and bats right-handed (lefties like Drew get the platoon advantage more often). If you were giving out a big money, long-term contract for a 30+ year old shortstop, Drew is probably the safer option.
Yup. It’s the Melky Conundrum. No way to know how much of Peralta’s performance was pyrite.
Is comparing Ellsbury to Tulo a bit (a big bit) of an overstatement? Tulo is a year younger and has been a +5 player even with injuries most years. Ellsbury does have the one amazing season, and was great last year, but really? These are equally valuable players going forward?
Especially considering the utility the Cards would be extracting from each player. Even if you were to lose your brain and consider Tulo and Ellsbury equal talents, St. Louis would benefit far more from an SS upgrade than an OF one.
Both would cost a ton of salary, but other than the money, Ellsbury would cost a draft pick while Tulow would cost a king’s ransom of young proven cost-controlled talent.
this kind of thing puts the lie to trade value rankings, in a way.
I mean, Shelby Miller was Dave’s #32 on this year’s list, and Tulo #13, right?
And here we have people talking about Miller and 2-3 other big league ready, relatively high ceiling players? The difference between 32 and 13 is a Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, etc?
difference between cardinal (no pun intended) and ordinal rankings
Just look at Tulo’s splits his average and OBS plummets away from Coors. Also based on his age and injuries how long will he actually last at SS I’d bet not till 2020 that’s for sure! I think the Cardinals are far to logical to waste prospects and the much cash!
Those “Coors Field splits” theories have been debunked thousands of times, not least of which when Matt Holliday went to St. Louis and continued to hit like a superstar.
well, he’s hit like an all star. he’s never been as good in st louis as he was at his peak in colorado, though.
My guess is that the window for some team getting Tulo is precisely one year. At that point, the Yankees will be in the market for the best SS in the game. And yes, Tulo will still be playing SS in 2020 if he is able to DH once a week or so. Same could happen if he’s able to play 2B or 3B occasionally instead of SS. Tulo himself is not really “brittle”. He is merely the largest full-time SS playing in MLB.
That said – Yankees don’t have anything to offer the Rockies.
From a macro perspective does this really make sense? Tulo has how many realistic 5 WAR seasons left? He’ll be good about as long as Yadi and Waino will be. Beltran is gone in all likelihood and you don’t have much left in Holliday. Young, cheap talent is there to offset those guys declining and being expensive. For say a 5 year plan, I don’t like this deal for the Cards. I don’t think these guys are that blocked. I don’t believe in Lynn at all and have doubts about Kelly. Miller is the surest thing of he young pitchers (based on minor league pedigree and MLB success). Given the attrition rate of pitchers, it’s very likely that only 2 of their crop of young pitchers end up being long term, above average pitchers.
So you trade a young, powerful 1B who is cheap and a young pitcher who is, at the moment, most likely to succeed. All for an often injured but highly productive SS. So to me, keeping your young guys is low-moderate risk/high reward over the long term for high risk/high reward over the short term.
Why not reopen the talks for Profar?
Wong isn’t blocked at all. Carpenter moves to third where he is more natural and Kozma is at 2nd. Freese is not a starting 3B on a contender.
I know what you mean and I agree but this just makes the 2011 WS all the more brutal for the Rangers.
Nah
It really can’t get any worse than it is. Feel free to pile it on.
I think that converting young, blocked talent into a guy who has produced 5 WAR in 4 of the last 5 years seems like a definite low-risk move.
Spending over 100 million on a guy with significant injury history and is getting older seems like a pretty high risk to me. Giving up young cost controlled assets to acquire that player seems like a pretty big risk as well.
I completely agree. While no one doubts his abilities when healthy it is just far too steep a price to pay both financially and player wise.
I would much rather we trade Lynn, Adams and a AAA pitcher to Texas for Profar and a first round pick, or something those lines. Get Profar and have the position locked up for 10 years. Work hard to make that deal happen. Do not give up the gems we have, no way.
Lynn is not even likely good enough to start for Texas or maybe a #5 starter and Adams is basically Mitch Moreland
The young talent isn’t blocked. Carpenter will move to third, Wong to second. The only guy blocked is Adams but they have he ability to get him regular at bats. Taveras will be ready soon enough. Start the season with taveras in AAA. Craig in right, Adams at first, call taveras up mid season if he’s ready and trade Adams them if you want. Pitchers are never blocked because…they’re pitchers.
Yadi, Holliday, and Waino are either past prime or tail end of it and are going to get more expensive. You need young talent to offset that. You can’t seriously count on lance Lynn, what’s left of Jaime garcia’s arm, mid 20s Joe Kelly, and hope Martinez, wacha, and rosenthal perform. You can’t count on Wong or taveras either. You also can’t count on Tulo to be healthy. The difference is, Tulo is aging and likely will decline, cost a shitload, and there is only one of him. There are lots of prospects, especially pitchers there if (when) one guy gets hurt or comes down with Rick Ankiel syndrome.
If the cards had a one or two year window, sure, trade for Tulo. They don’t, they have a 10 year window and I believe trading for Tulo hinders that and shortens it.
Well said.
The plan now for Taveras is CF – so even when he’s called up he won’t take anyone’s spot other than Jay (or Robinson, if the Cards go that route). There is one guy that’ll be blocked from opening day, but it’s either Wong or Freese, so no one in the discussion is “blocked”. There was that potential when Beltran could’ve accepted his QO, but when he rejected it he freed up RF for Craig which frees up 1B for Adams.
Seems rather silly to move a top 3 pitcher in our rotation, our starting 1B, our relief ace, and another piece for a starting SS when there are other, much cheaper, options. If Colorado is just looking for a salary dump, we should approach the conversation, but I don’t think St. Louis should be the team that continues conversations after initial discussions.
going by numerous factors, I will be surprised if the Cardinals move Carpenter from second base at this point
Why? He’s valuable at 3rd too, Freese will be gone fairly soon. Wong is a top 2B prospect and has been in their long term plans for a while.
What are the chances the Mets try to trade for Tulo? Syndagaard/Wheeler, Flores, Puello, Tejada a viable offer?
I don’t see it; acquiring Tulo would push the Mets from maybe a 72-ish win team up to perhaps a 77-ish win team. Not worth giving up some valuable, cost-controlled pieces that they are trying to build around, I don’t think.
That’s an offer that can be beaten but it still might be enough. The Mets got Santana for a lot less than what everyone figured it would take.
The Twins had no choice though because they couldn’t extend him – the extension is booked at excess value in this case. The Rockies don’t HAVE to trade him like the Twins did with Johan and the Rays will with Price.
I’m not sure why there aren’t more trade scenarios involving Cardinals minor leaguers. If the Cardinals are sacrificing all major league talent, this deal won’t happen. It should consist of a 1)proven above average major leaguer, 2) a useful major leaguer, 3) 2-3 prospects. Here’s what makes sense to me:
1. 1 of Miller/Adams
2. 1 of Siegrist/Maness/Lynn/Kelly/Freese
3. 2-3 of Stephen Piscotty/James Ramsey/Tim Cooney/Tyrell Jenkins/Mike O’Neill/Alex Reyes/Rob Kaminsky/Marco Gonzalez/Oscar Mercado/Carson Kelly/Patrick Wisdom
Make that a choice between either #2 or #3 (along with #1) and I’d be willing to consider it. I’d probably make it Piscotty+1 or any three of the others, though.
If it’s going to cost Miller+Adams+Rosenthal+, I’d rather check the price on what it would take to get Profar, whose value is probably “down” to the extent he didn’t become the Trout of SS last season. The odds of Profar contributing the same WAR as Tulo is slim but the cost difference in both dollars and talent may make it a better long term play.
Yes!!! I totally want us to get Profar w/out giving up our special guys! Lynn+Adams+? to make this happen. Would be totally psyched if we could make this happen!
That’s what I’d offer if I were the cards too. Jon Daniels is smart though. He’ll wait for Profar’s value to increase and get a ridiculous haul for him. Maybe David Price?
(And then hope he doesn’t turn into Starlin Castro!)
2 years of Price does not really work for the Rangers because they need bats and not pitching
They need value. How much Price is an upgrade over their worst current pitcher is still pretty big.
A bit of understatement that he wasn’t the next coming of Mike Trout. The guy was flat out awful. Half a season under his belt and he posted subpar offensive, defensive, and baserunning numbers. Obviously the guy is young and has amazing talent but he is far from a safe bet. I have a feeling that the Rangers (are whomever might trade for him) are going to have a rough 2-3 years before he really starts to shine.
I know Dave thinks Machado’s injury puts a nail in his chances of moving back to short, but I would think the O’s would have to reconsider if they could get their hands on someone like S Miller for a season of Hardy if the price is too steep on Tulo.
Another option would be to trade for one of the more advanced highly ranked SS prospects and rush them to the majors by a bit – specifically someone like Lindor or Biaz (may make sense if the Cubs still believe in Castro).
I’m guessing it ends up being Elvis Andrus.
The Cardinals wouldn’t trade Shelby for a year of JJ Hardy.
Agreed, but I’m just saying that if the price were right, Hardy would be available in my opinion.
No way on Miller, but what about Freese? He was worth 4 WAR last year, O’s would get two arbitration years, 2014 would likely be cheaper than Hardy’s $7M given his poor 2013 performance. Hardy isn’t ideal for the Cardinals because I feel like they want a reliable option at SS for at least the next 2-3 years. However, Cards can try to sign him to an extension, or if he has another 30HR season he could make an interesting qualifying offer candidate.
What’s the history if a team trading a guy they recently extended? Andrus is signed for a long time, and it was recent. I don’t think the Rangers are too keen on trading him.
Anyone else think that the Rockies, Cardinals and Rays would make for good partners in a 3 way trade? Tampa Bay want to move Price for young and cheap players, Colorado needs pitching that can succeed in the thin atmosphere of Coors field, and STL has lots of depth, but needs a Shorts stop.
I could see a 3 way deal of something like this
TB –> Price –> COL
COL –> Tulowitzki –> STL
STL –> Miller, Wong & Adams –> TB
I’m sure you throw a few more pieces in there, but I think it works out well for all parties, as STL gets their shortstop, COL uses the money they saved in trading TULO to re-sign Price (and maybe they have enough left over to sign Ubaldo back), and Tampa gets a new starting 1st and 2nd baseman (Adams & Wong) as well as Miller to replace Price in the rotation (new ration looks like this: Cobb, Moore, Miller, Hellickson, Archer).
While the trade is very unrealistic, I actually think it helps all parties involved.
Wouldn’t expect Colorado to be interested. They were a last place team last year. I don’t see them pushing all in for a short term piece like Price (especially when you say they could extend him with the money saved). Would you rather have the best SS in the game or a top 15 SP (with declining velocity) who would have to be extended at the new market prices?
I could see the Rays maybe involved with the Cards if it were for H. Lee or Y. Escobar though.
Wat???
First of all Tulo is way more valuable than Price. Way, way, way more valuable. And what on earth would Colorado do with two years of David Price?? Think about if David Price was just on the Rockies right now, ignoring how he got there. EVERYONE would be talking about how the Rockies are going to trade David Price. It makes absolutely zero sense for them to attempt to target a guy like that.
WAR from 2013-2011
Tulo: 12.5
Price: 13.5
YUP! Tulo has clearly been way more valuable. Even if we look at the lat 4 years, it is very close between the two players. Tulowitzki is clearly the better player, but considering he can’t stay healthy (and you are only “valuable” for your team by staying on the field) he and Price actually come out fairly evenly. As well, the Rockies key problem has been finding pitching that can be effective in Coors Park (over the last 10 years, they have the leagues third worst ERA and fifth worth FIP). All signs of a team desperately in need of pitching
While I usually never say no to a threeway, I doubt the Cards take that deal for the reasons in the article above. I also doubt Price would want to pitch in Denver long term and the Rockies are not in short-term win mode from what I can tell.
You’re crazy if you think the 3rd piece in a Tulo trade is Kolten Wong. No way we trade a 2/3 pitcher (right now) with the ceiling of an ace, our starting 1B, and our potential starting 2B for a SS…
Stephen Drew at $33 million seems like a lot — especially with draft pick compensation taken into account.
He’s going to push the wrong side of 30 in the latter end of his new deal, he isn’t durable and he doesn’t hit.
The last time he hit 15 HR (exactly 15, actually) was 2010.
He’s NEVER had 70 RBI. Not one time.
His career batting average is .264 and his career OBP is .329
I think I’d rather have Pete Kozma and a 1st in pretty much any scenario than sign Stephen Drew.
NEVER HAD 70 RBI???
Then I definitely don’t want that clown on my team.
What argument can you make for him?
For 33 mil and a 1st round round pick, I just want more than a .264 hitter.
Dude. You are on Fangraphs, not ESPN.com.
He’s an average hitter who plays above average defence at shortstop. That makes him a good player. Unlike Pete Kozma.
I think it really depends on how much you believe the projections.
Personally, I think Miller is a one pitch pitcher. It’s a good pitch, but he’s nowhere as good as Wacha, Martinez, or even Lynn. If he can’t get people out with a high fastball, he can’t get people out. And as the year went on, he couldn’t thrown as hard and he struggled.
Similarly, Adams has one basic asset – hitting for power. He won’t hit for average, he doesn’t walk much, his defense is okay. Is he a decent bench player? But the more he plays, the more he will be exposed.
The ultimate goal is to win the world series. Tulo has a much better chance of making a difference in the playoffs than Adams does.
This undervalues Adams rather severely. He hit for average as well as power in the minors, and a .284/.335/.503 line in St. Louis, a pitcher’s park, doesn’t scream that he won’t hit for average in the majors, either. There were surprisingly few first basemen this year who did much better — the era of the Pujols/Fielder/Berkman/etc. thumpers at 1B has passed.
As for Miller only having one pitch, don’t make the mistake of assuming that because he was overwhelmingly a fastball guy this year, that’s what he’ll be going forward. He didn’t call his own pitches this year, Molina (and therefore Matheny) did it for him, and there is precedent for having a young pitcher focus on the fastball until he’s used to the major-league work load. No less a pitcher than Felix Hernandez did something similar, not introducing his wipeout slider until he’d been in the bigs for a while. The bigger question with Miller is whether there’s something wrong with him that kept him from being used in the post season. That would obviously factor into both his availability and his desirability in a trade, and we just don’t know.
That may be true about Miller. But the absolute worst place for a one-pitch FB pitcher in the league is Coors — and there is zero chance that the Rockies are interested in a pitcher who may someday exhibit a second pitch — in exchange for the best SS in baseball on a team-friendly contract.
Except he throws an above average curveball almost 20% of the time, so calling him a 1-pitch guy is just silly.
Well curveballs don’t drop at Coors and are actually the least valuable pitch here (except maybe a knuckle). Changeups can work here – sliders can work here – a mix of fastballs can work here – sinkers/cutters can work here.
IOW – Miller is the completely wrong pitcher for Coors.
Aybar for a pitcher makes much more sense for both teams.
Tulo = not going to happen. Profar or Aybar seems realistic for both sides. Cards should also look into grabbing Rutledge from Colo on the cheap – he’s got a lot of potential in the right situation.
Am I the only one who got flummoxed by the Trevor/Ken distinctions. I was excited at parts where it seemed like Trevor was himself speculating on what the cards would have to give up, including himself. I request NotGraphs to investigate the family tree.
Only an insufferably arrogant Cardinals’ fan would think that acquiring THE BEST SHORTSTOP in the game for backups would be a bad thing. Reading through this thread’s comments, you’d think that Tulowitzke was 40 years old and injured 125 games out of the season.
PSST, young pitchers also get hurt at an even more accelerated rate so just automatically penciling Miller for 2+ WAR every year is the height of stupidity. And Adams? That fat tub of goo? You’d think he was the second coming of Babe Ruth from the nauseatingly fawning emanating from comments above. He doesn’t walk, hits substantially more ground balls than fly balls and is such a defensive zero that he can only play first base. And the Cards’ already have an overrated but better version starting ahead of him.
Goddamn, I hate Cardinals’ fans so much ….
Tub of Goo’s OPS+ last year was higher than Tulo’s career OPS+.
And he will be entering his peak while Tulo is entering his decline phase.
Also, our backup is better than your starter.
Helton hasn’t hit as well as Adams did last year for the past 6 seasons (and didn’t hit as well as Adams in his age-24 season either).
Shelby Miller, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, and most of the other names being bandied about are not backups. Only a rabid hater of all things Cardinals would think that taking on $120M or so in salary for an aging SS (even the best in the game, right now) in exchange for 3 or 4 top-tier major league starters is a fair trade.
Not sure if you’re aware, but Adams is our starting 1B, Miller is either our 2nd or 3rd SP, and Rosenthal is our best reliever….you’re crazy if you think any of the people we’re moving are “backups”
Adams also costs 2.5% as much as Tulo, so there’s that. However, anything you tell this guy will only confirm that we are “know it alls”.
Of course, that’s the best description of Cards fans anyway. At Busch more than any other stadium you can get into a discussion of which pinch hitter would be best in a certain situation.
Please rank the stadiums from 1-30 in this regard.
In his defense, players usually regard St. Louis fans as the most knowledgable in baseball. Not saying it’s true, or false, just saying that’s where the fan base gets that opinion.
Well, that might be true, but they also thought Rafael Palmiero was the best defensive first baseman, so they aren’t exactly infallible.
“Well, that might be true, but they also thought Rafael Palmiero was the best defensive first baseman, so they aren’t exactly infallible.”
Huh? The Cards fanbase? Where did you see that?
Cardinals fans might be most knowledgable of their own team but they’re just as much of a homer as everyone else. The difference is they don’t think they are and tout it nonstop.
It’s not that we’re not homers – we definitely are (every fan base is). It’s that we just appreciate “good” baseball more than the “average” fan base. It doesn’t matter who makes the great defensive play, as long as a great play is made. Randy Johnson had a famous quote (I don’t remember what he said, if you really care you can look it up) about how the fans in St. Louis were the best baseball fans he’d seen. They weren’t the biggest fans of their specific team, but baseball fans in general.
Curt Schilling said that St. Louis was the only stadium he’d ever heard cheer for a properly placed sacrifice bunt (which was back in the early 2000s….when that actually meant something).
@Richard
I was referring to the comment about players agreeing that Cardinals fans were the most knowledgeable. The players and coaches vote for gold glove awards, and gave one to Rafael Palmiero several years ago. Just saying that being good at hitting a baseball doesn’t necessarily mean you are the best at estimating the knowledge of the average fan of a specific team who might be at the ballpark.
Not a Cardinals fan at all but you are way off.
Cards should sign Choo for RF and leadoff hitter, Carpenter moves to 3rd base and he bats second, Holliday in LF bats third, keep Craig at 1st base batting 4th. Then we are left with Molina, Jay/Taveras, Wong at 2nd base and our new mystery SS, hopefully only costing us a pitcher or two. Plus we can keep Adams, Freese, Jay/Taveras on our bench which was lacking big time last year !!
Sign a 30+ year old corner OF who’s only strength is OBP, and is coming off an unusually high year, for $100M? No thanks. If he weren’t coming off a ridiculous season, or his agent wasn’t Scott Boras, maybe. He’s coming off a career year from an OBP standpoint, and is starting to turn into a platoon player. Simply not worth the money he’ll be getting.
He didn’t say for $100M. I’d love to have Choo for 4 years, $75M in a different situation. However, we’ve got a logjam looming in the corner outfield positions so there’s just no way to sign him right now.
The one guy I hope we don’t sign is Drew. He’s too brittle and inconsistent to give a long-term deal.
A deal with the Angels makes the most sense. One controllable arm for Aybar. Keep the rest of the core in place without adding much salary. Keep your draft pick by not signing Drew/Ellsbury/Choo.
Or the deal rosenthal proposed but for Trout instead.
If that’d work, yes please.
The Angels probably do that if you also take one of either Pujols or Hamilton.
Isn’t a 3-4 WAR guy making the MLB minimum (as Miller & Adams are each quite possibly going to be over each of the next two years) actually more valuable than a 5-6 WAR guy making $20M?
what about trading to acquire Donaldson from the A’s instead of Tulo?
to go further into ridiculous musings territory, what kind of massive haul would it take to get Lowrie and Donaldson? all of the prospects? lol. I suppose that would mean trading away Taveras, but that’s not what I would like to see. Perhaps something like Adams/Miller/Kelly/Lynn/etc. heh. but if they could pull this off, perhaps they could also sign Ellsbury, and just how ridiculous would that team be in 2014? *drools*
meant to include Jay in there as well
Michael Wacha, Kevin Siegrist, Allen Craig, Lance Lynn, and a pair of top 150-to-200 type minor leaguers for Mike Trout. Long as we’re spitballin’. 😉