Tuesday Prospect Notes: A Few Top 100 Tweaks
This season, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin will have periodic minor league roundup post that run during the week. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.
Before we get to this post’s analysis, some housekeeping. I’m continuing to trudge through the last few team lists, and hope readers will understand that part of why this has taken so long is because a) we lost multiple writers to teams during the process and b) it takes a lot for me to compromise my vision for the depth and quality of my work. I’m on pace to finish just before the draft while also updating and expanding the draft prospect list so that draftees can quickly be added to their club’s pro list right after they’re picked. I realize that continuing this way during future cycles would leave valuable and relevant info unpublished for too long, and that I need to make changes. For instance, I don’t have a Cardinals list out yet while guys like Andre Pallante, Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez are all playing big league roles. I’ve had well-formed thoughts on that group of guys since they were part of last year’s Arizona Fall League, and need to find a way to shorten the lag between when I’m taking those notes and when they’re turned into actionable info on the site, especially when it comes to short-term big leaguers.
My approach for in-season updates (which have already underway — duh, you are reading this post) will again be to group teams based on the geographic location of their spring training facility (for example, teams with East Valley facilities in Arizona are already being updated) and drill down deepest on contending clubs (within that East Valley cluster, the Giants) as they’re more likely to part with prospects ahead of the trade deadline. There will still be à la carte updates where I see a player and add them, or where someone’s performance prompts me to source info from scouting and front office contacts and brings about a change in their evaluation or valuation.
Updates will be paired with written analysis explaining why they’ve occurred. I’m averse to simply re-ordering names and announcing an update, as it feels clickbait-y to me and serves to blur the line between real expertise in this field and someone just tweeting a repackaged list of names. I realize I’m fighting an uphill battle in this regard (gestures at our broader culture), but I want to cling as tightly as possible to my priorities (rigorous, well-considered work that garners the approval of my peers and people in the baseball industry) while still giving readers what they crave as a natural byproduct of achieving that goal.
Top 100 Changes
After he made just five starts at High-A toward the end of his breakout 2021 campaign, this season the Marlins sent 6-foot-9, 19-year-old Eury Pérez to Double-A Pensacola, where he has been a buzzsaw, striking out 36% of opposing hitters while only walking 6% across just north of 40 innings. Over the last year, Pérez has added about 30 pounds, experienced a two-tick fastball velocity bump, and incorporated a second, harder breaking ball that has become his primary non-fastball weapon. After sitting 94-95 mph last year (Pérez was a 50 FV prospect ranked 67th in the offseason), he’s now parked in the 96-98 mph range for entire starts, and his hardest sliders (in the 85-87 mph range) are nearly 10 mph harder than his average curveball was in 2021 (77 mph). While he’s been uniformly dominant in the minors, Pérez’s stuff has now hit a different gear and demands a move.
Even more precocious than Pérez’s velocity is his fastball command, which is absurd for a 19-year-old, let alone one who throws this hard and is also this size. He shows bend and balance in his lower half as he propels himself way down the mound and releases on the doorstep of the batter’s box, making hitters extremely uncomfortable. Though he doesn’t throw the pitch a ton, his changeup feel is also very good, and currently more consistent than his feel for his new slider, though I expect that will come. Pérez’s fastball shape operates to the east and west of the zone. His heater is only generating about a 14% swinging strike rate, per Synergy Sports, which is above the big league average but not elite. There are still some things to work on here, but Pérez is younger now than Trevor Rogers was on the day he was drafted, and the fact that he’s made relevant adjustments this year and continues to dominate while implementing them is remarkable.
Within the last couple of days, scouts who have seen Pérez (one who I happened to be at a game with, as well as a newer source of mine) have said they can make the argument that he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball right now because the other few in that discussion (for me, Grayson Rodriguez, who has a strained lat; Shane Baz, who had arthroscopic surgery from which he recently returned, arm strength intact; and Daniel Espino, currently in a pretty long layoff for a knee issue) have all been hurt recently. Rodriguez’s injury, which might cost him the rest of the year, dictates he slide a little bit to reflect the risk that this is the start of persistent problems, as has been the case for many pitching prospects before him. That group is now stacked in the 60 FV tier in order of proximity and health, though Grayson still has the highest ceiling and best collection of pitches.
Gunnar Henderson has moved from the 50 FV tier into the 55s, as he’s cut his strikeout rate almost in half while walking more than he has punched out at Double-A Bowie ahead of a promotion to Triple-A. If we look under the hood, Henderson’s pitch selection appears even more impressive, as he’s only swinging at pitches in the strike zone that he can damage, often letting strikes on the outer third of the zone go past him early in the count. There are scouts and analysts convinced he can play shortstop for at least a little while, though I still have him projected as a plus third baseman. He’s now a top 25 prospect in baseball for me based largely on the improvements he’s made on the offensive end, improvements that have curbed the fear that may have popped up from his 2021 Double-A stint of him striking out at a worrying clip.
Six other players have moved into the 50 FV, four of whom were anticipated coming into the season and two of whom weren’t. Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and Braves center fielder Michael Harris II have both made swing changes. PCA made his change in the offseason and has had time to generate a meaningful sample showing that it has indeed unlocked meaningful pull-power to go with his incredible center field defense. He now ranks among the other excellent up-the-middle defenders poised to make at least one-note offensive impact, in the 40-50 overall range of the list.
You could argue that we’re late to the party on Harris, but (and you can read more about this in his blurb over on The Board) it has tended to serve us well to wait on swing changes and assess their impact (Garrett Mitchell and Jarren Duran come to mind), while anticipating them has been a mistake (Travis Swaggerty). Harris made his change while he was here in Arizona just a few days after he was called up (I went to see him and Spencer Strider), and while there’s still some approach-related risk that Harris won’t get to his power, it’s incredible that this 21-year-old has been able to keep his head above water against big league pitching while making adjustments on the fly.
Rockies catcher Drew Romo and Yankees lefty Ken Waldichuk are the other two additions from the offseason Picks to Click group. Waldichuk’s fastball plays up due to its underlying characteristics, he has two good breaking balls, and I think his changeup will eventually be a bat-missing weapon because of the way he commands it. He’s similar to Reid Detmers (average velo that punches above its weight, big breaking stuff, lots of strikes, projection on the changeup), a plug-and-play mid-rotation starter who could pitch in the big leagues tomorrow if the Yankees needed him to. Graduates like Detmers will migrate to a 2022 Graduates page (like this) when I’ve completed the final few team lists, but for now they serve as a good jumping off point from which to triangulate the position of new additions like Waldichuk.
Romo is a virtual lock to be an impact defender at a key position and continues to post above-average contact rates and hit for power even as he’s exited the Cal League (all the Rockies affiliates are hitter-friendly, however), and he belongs in the mix with Shea Langeliers and Iván Herrera as locks to catch who also stand to contribute on offense.
Chief among the unexpected additions to the Top 100 is Red Sox righty Brayan Bello. I’ve long considered Bello to be a relief prospect due to the length of his arm action, but he’s never generated excessive or role-altering walk rates, and when you look at the clusters of his pitch locations, it’s clear this guy has feel for locating his stuff even though his delivery features a good bit of violence and effort. He has three impact pitches – a mid-to-upper-90s sinking/tailing fastball, a plus slider, and a plus changeup – and is on the doorstep of the big leagues, and I’m buying that he has the command to start. Bello is very similar in many ways to Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby (sinker-oriented fastball, plus secondary stuff, arguable relief risk), and so he enters the list in that zip code.
Cardinals shortstop prospect Masyn Winn slides into the very back of the list among other contact-oriented middle infielders. While focusing solely on shortstop, Winn (who was a two-way amateur with huge arm strength) dominated High-A for the first month of 2022 and was given a quick promotion to Double-A Springfield, where he continued to rake on the surface. While Winn’s underlying metrics indicate his power output in 2022 has, to this point, been a mirage (30-grade peak exit velos), his bat-to-ball skills are advanced, especially for a prospect who was a two-way player not long ago and who is only 20 and already at the upper levels. His contact rates (in the zone and overall) have been better than the big league average this year and have taken a bit of a leap since 2021. There’s big bat speed and rotational athleticism here, and you can project a little more on Winn’s power output even though he’s already a muscular, tightly-wound 20-year-old who doesn’t have a long, projectable frame. While adept at putting the bat on letter-high fastballs, he currently struggles to pull ones that have real big league velocity. Fastballs he’s pulled in the air since arriving at Double-A have averaged only 90 mph, while (this is per Synergy Sports) his opposite-field liners and fly balls have come against fastballs averaging 93 mph. Purely based on where his skills and tools are at this moment, Winn isn’t a 50 FV prospect in the same way that most other upper-level prospects are. Instead, he’s more of a high-variance, high-ceiling type with some freaky tools and an impressive early-career track record for someone who was not unanimously considered a hitter as a high school prospect.
Falling within the Top 100 is Blue Jays third base prospect Orelvis Martinez, who has proven to be extremely chase-prone at Double-A. His 55% swing rate there would rank him among the 15 most aggressive qualified big leaguers in 2022 (though many of them are quite good) and Martinez’s breaking ball issues prompted one scout to compare him to Maikel Franco. There’s still so much pull power here that I want to stay on Orelvis, but he slides among the boom-or-bust corner defenders, close to 100 overall.
Moving out of the 50 FV tier are Rays outfielder Josh Lowe (yes, he’s hitting for huge power at Triple-A, but his strikeouts have exploded and his defense in center is not good enough to support that) and Giants outfielder Heliot Ramos (for similar, though not as stark, issues); both now have role-playing FV grades rather than ones befitting true everyday players. Another Giant, catcher Patrick Bailey, falls as he continues to struggle at High-A, where he finished 2021. His framing metrics are still very strong, but he otherwise isn’t performing, and scouts in to see him are crushing his effort level and athleticism.
I was too aggressive ranking Cubs infielder Reginald Preciado and Yankees shortstop Alexander Vargas during their early Complex League days. Preciado’s breaking ball recognition issues are a big reason he’s punching out 40% of the time (a source of mine who warned me of this and reads the site is going to send me an “I told you so” text very shortly). Vargas hasn’t filled out and added strength in the way I expected/hoped, and in fact is still so undercooked from a strength standpoint that he’s likely to be exposed to and passed over in this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. He still has no-doubt infield shortstop athleticism and remains a fair long-term prospect, though.
Marlins righty Sixto Sánchez moves out of the top 100, as his shoulder issue will likely prevent him from throwing this year. The track record for total returns from shoulder issues (which Sánchez has dealt with multiple times) is not good, and to be frank, he looked extremely out of shape when I saw him walking around the backfields in Jupiter. I also saw Twins righty Jordan Balazovic (knee) rehabbing in Florida prior to him being sent out to an affiliate, and he has struggled since. His velo was fine (up to 95 mph, sitting 93) and has continued to be (he’s been up to 96 at Triple-A), but he seemed to be working with a new, second breaking ball (a 83-88 mph slider) during the rehab stint I saw, the shape and quality of which was very inconsistent. He hasn’t fallen far but needs to be behind the group of power arms in the Top 100.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Seems Hunter Brown is soon to be called up for the Astros, presumably in a bullpen role. Has his command improved to justify the call? Will pitching him out of the bullpen delay his progress?
Thank you for your opening paragraph(s). I greatly appreciate it, and look forward to seeing your wonderful lists earlier next cycle. Your commitment is admirable, and I hope you get what you need to get it done.
Double dittos on that! In my day job, I’ve had to explain to impatient audiences why I haven’t been able to deliver high-demand stuff as quickly as desired (same reasons, not enough help + not enough time). Eric’s explained his situation and commitment as eloquently and clearly as I wish that I had done in my job.
Agreed! What I like to (politely) tell my clients on involved projects they want on tight deadlines, “You can have it done quickly or you can have it done correctly, but not both. Your choice.” They typically prefer correctly… 🙂
As someone who suspected that the loss of staff and Eric’s vision for this was getting in the way of getting these done, and who kind of felt like something needed to change, I am really happy he posted this. It sounds like he knows things need to change and is thinking about how to do it. I’m satisfied, and I’m happy to wait until next year to see if things are better.
So this might just be because you haven’t gotten to see them yet but I’m curious to hear what you have to say about Ezequiel Tovar and Jackson Chourio. Both of them look great and I think you could make a pretty strong case that both are 50s (maybe even Tovar at 55).
Below that, I would argue Colt Keith is probably a 45 or 45+ at this point, too, and that Edwin Arroyo very likely is (maybe more so than Keith). Maybe Hao Yu Lee too from the Phillies.
Colt Keith was who I was going to ask about. Him & Wilmer Flores, who has zoomed up Detroit’s system & is dominating in a small sample at AA Ball (& to Eric’s credit, he was the only one I saw mention Flores on the 2022 prospect lists), both should be Top 100 consideration.
In fact, with Jobe scuffling a little in Low A, Dingler having huge K issues, is Keith or Flores the Tigers #1 prospect (assuming Greene no longer has rookie eligibility)?
The question with Flores was whether he was going to throw strikes. Eric had him as a possible future closer, but it sure looks like he’s throwing strikes now. If he has the ability to start then a 70 fastball, 60 curveball, and 50 slider would easily put him at #2 and ahead of Jobe and Dingler (both of whom I thought weren’t 50s anyway). There’s always risk when a guy pops up out of that but I’d put him ahead of Keith, Jobe, and Dingler. Those three probably belong with Reese Olson and Ty Madden. Those five guys are all 45s or 45+’s, I’d say, with Flores being at least a 45+ and possibly a 50.
& news today that Keith severely hurt his shoulder & is likely out for the remainder of the year. Hopeful for the fall league. Luckily no surgery needed.
Maybe Eric was aware of that?
Some Guardians that I’d like to hear about:
Gavin Williams who some people thought was a bit low at 45+. He was dominant in A+ and was recently moved to AA where he looked good in his first start.
Bo Naylor: Was a 50 a couple of years ago but was dropped to a 40 after his poor 2021. Now he’s having a breakout year (151 wRC+) as a 22 year old catcher in AA.
Joey Cantillo: Was only a 35+ at the beginning of the year but increased velocity has led to a huge season in AA (2.34 ERA, 2.49 FIP) as a 22 year old.
I watched Gavin Williams’ first start and it seemed like he got quite lucky. He gave up a ton of hard hit balls that found gloves. Obviously not a scout, but it’s a reminder why scouting the stat line isn’t always great.
Yeah, it definitely wasn’t a great first start in AA. But he was a 45+ who was absolutely dominant in A+ (1.40 ERA, 1.66 FIP), which was his first time facing professional hitters. Seems like he’d be on the short list of players who should move up based on what they’ve done so far this season.
He’s a good prospect for sure, I just watched the start so I thought I’d give some context. AA is the biggest talent jump in the minors in my opinion. He did well enough, but it was a miracle he only gave up one run (IIRC).
I thought Williams was absolutely a 50 already, so I’d feel like he’s there now.
Bo Naylor seems like he could be a 45? Cantillo too, although I thought everyone moved off of him too quickly.
I am actually a little surprised not to see Tovar higher. All accounts are that he is maven at short, and he is hitting for average power and speed in a non-ridiculous hitting environment. He’s also young for level. Was Profar’s profile so different when he was the #1 overall prospect? Actually Profar didn’t have quite the reputation for defense Tovar does…
Part of the reason why Tovar is a good prospect is because the glove gives him a pretty high floor. A league average hitter with league average baserunning with league average defense at shortstop puts you somewhere north of 3 wins. It’s the Erick Aybar zone. He’s got a lot more upside than that but Erick Aybar had several seasons where he had 3.5 wins or more, and it’s too hard to see him being Erick Aybar.
Aybar had a 7 year stretch where he averaged over 3 WAR/650!
I was shocked when I realized how good Erick Aybar was. It made me realize that finding someone who can play SS (or C, or CF) is so hard that if you’re just average at everything at those positions you’re incredibly valuable.
I must have forgotten that when I was low on Jeremy Pena, because even if he regresses at the plate he’ll still be a pretty good shortstop. Other guys like Tovar, Josh Smith, and Jordan Lawlar are sort of in the same boat–the fact that they’re very likely able to stick at the position makes them very valuable even if the bat doesn’t hit its ceiling. And it gives other guys like Nick Allen, Brice Turang, and Gabriel Arias a fighting chance.
Great call on Ezequiel Tovar, Trombone.
I have Tovar the #3 overall prospect, trailing only Gunnar and Adley. The publicly available metrics love Tovar’s glove at shortstop, he’s stealing bases at a high rate, and he’s not only killing the baseball in Double-A at age 20, his road OPS is 300 points higher than home.
Tovar’s road numbers, pro-rated to 154 games:
.355 avg, with 39 HR, 17 triples, and 33 doubles. And 55-for-66 stealing.
And we kinda could’ve seen this coming. Last year in Low-A he was the first full-season minor leaguer since Carlos Correa in 2015 to have an ISO of .200+ with a K rate under 20% while being young for his league and posting a speed score of 7.0 or better. (He fanned less than 13% of the time.)
Tovar has more upside than any position player in the minors.
IDK about more upside than anyone in the minors or being a Top 5 prospect. The tools don’t exactly support what he’s doing. But being a good defensive shortstop is nice because it raises your floor and ceiling. The guy he reminds me of (in a weird way) is MJ Melendez, who suddenly turned everything around to be a top prospect. I would have 55’d Melendez at midyear last year and given him a 60 in the offseason, and that’s what he reminds me of here.
Thanks for the response, S.T.
Interesting that Melendez came to mind for you; M.J. also broke through in AA of course, but he was two years older than Zeke. And Melendez had fanned 30-40% of the time at his three previous stops, while Tovar whiffed just 13% at age 19 in A-Ball while hitting for good power.
Don’t know why you think Tovar lacks tools in any way. Homers & steals = power & speed, doesn’t it? If Tovar stays healthy and isn’t a star, I’ll be shocked.
If you don’t have top-end exit velocities sometimes the power is a bit of a fluke. It looks like he’s out-producing his raw power due to his exceptional bat control. Some guys can do this consistently like Mookie Betts; Betts has 17 homers this year (tied for 4th in MLB) but his max EV is 138 out of 157 qualified batters. Most guys can’t, which is why we marvel over Mookie Betts.
(Interestingly, the same thing is true of Mookie Betts on the basepaths. You could imagine a similar story for Tovar on baserunning, but the problem is that you have to take all stolen base numbers with huge mouthfuls of salt in the minors. The catchers aren’t that good. So I don’t think I quite buy that at all).
I think that this is roughly analogous to Melendez in the sense that he’s doing something at the plate with his hit tool that we didn’t really expect to happen. When something like this happens–where they outperform where the tools previously were–it’s sometimes means we got the tools wrong, and sometimes means they’re just having a good run. Either way, it’s pretty clear he’s not a 45+ anymore, and if he does this over the whole year (especially if he gets promoted to AAA and continues this) I think it’s worth slapping a 60 on him.
Cecchini’s SB numbers in the minors, haha…
Cecchini never really made it in the majors, so it’s hard to compare. (neither brother, now that I think of it)
Having stolen bases in the minors is better than not stealing bases but you could make a pretty good list of guys who stole more in one season in the minors than they did in the first 1000 PAs in their entire MLB career and not fill it up with Anthony Gose or Zack Granite types who never got to 1000 PAs.
Aaron Altherr stole 37 bases in 2011. In 1000+ PAs, he only stole 21.
Trent Grisham stole 37 bases in 2017. In his 1000+ PAs, he only has 25.
Brandon Guyer stole 30 bases in 2010. In his almost 1500 PAs, he only has 22.
Teoscar Hernandez stole 33 bases in 2015. In his 2000+ PAs, he only has 31.
Joc Pederson: Stole 30 bases in 2014, and 31 in 2013. Has only 21 steals in 3000+ PAs.
It turns out is way easier to steal in the minors! There are a lot of guys who can run on minor league catchers who are still learning to throw guys out but not on major leaguers. Stolen base numbers in the minors should be treated skeptically unless you’re stealing an absurd number (like, Dee Strange-Gordon level). Stealing 16 bases, like Tovar has done, would put you tied at #2 in MLB for steals (one behind the leader at 17). In AA, you’re tied with five other guys for 12th place (and over 20 steals behind the leader at 37).
Pitchers are less worried about holding people on, too.
Volpe had as many steals, more home runs, and more triples in 17 fewer Low-A games than Tovar, last year.
…and Volpe received elite prospect rankings based on that performance last year. Properly so.
Tovar’s #3 overall ranking for me is of course largely based on THIS year’s extraordinary performance. My previous point about Tovar’s 2021 partial season in Low-A is that in a critically important way (very good isolated slugging combined with a very low K rate) it foreshadowed this year’s massive AA batting breakout at the tender age of 20.
I don’t know why such a fuss was made about my stolen base comment. I didn’t mean to imply the kid would be a fantasy baseball dynamo on the bases — just that the good-volume, high-percentage stealing was (and always is) another positive to consider. Another point in Tovar’s favor. Reflection of smarts, instincts, speed, what have you. Like everything else that happens in the minors, it obviously does not *guarantee* anything at the MLB level. But to pretend it doesn’t matter, isn’t actually happening, is bizarre to me.
Fangraphs speed grades as prospects: Tommy Edman 55.
Tyler O’Neill 55. In short, I trust the steals more than any scouting grades, esp. at certain websites.
Gunnar Henderson gonna keep raking and make his way up the board! Wonder where he’ll be ranked next season? Top 25 is already big; could he make it to top 15?
For that matter, with the injury to Rodriguez is he now the #1 O’s prospect (with Adley’s graduation from the list).
I think it partly depends on who graduates off of it. Of the guys currently ahead of him, Witt, Rodriguez, and Torkelson will definitely graduate if they haven’t already. He’s already at 22, so if he keeps doing what he is doing he’s very likely to be at least at #19.
Other guys who might graduate off it (but also might not) include Shane Baz, Adley Rutschman, Riley Greene, Oneil Cruz, Gabriel Moreno, and CJ Abrams. If we assume that 2 of the 5 will graduate and Henderson keeps steady, then he’ll be at #17.
I think it’s also fair to think that if he keeps performing, he’ll move out of the FV55 bucket and into FV60, which would move him ahead of Jordan Walker, Triston Casas, and Marcelo Mayer (unless they move up too; Walker very well might. I suspect Luciano will move up to FV60 as well, so I didn’t even list him). Let’s say he moves ahead of Casas and Mayer. That would put him at #15, potentially a touch higher. I’d say that most likely, this is where I’d be comfortable projecting him.
But if Henderson is continuing to run a ridiculous batting line at AAA like he did at AA, or even something in the same range as that, the sky is the limit. Look at the position players from #1-#14 who haven’t gotten to the majors–Alvarez, Carroll, Greene, Volpe, Marte, and Jung. If he’s running a .200/.400/.500 batting line in AAA (which might not happen, but he’s actually doing something like it at the moment in his small sample AAA stint and did better at AA) it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that any of them definitively deserve to be listed over Henderson. In this scenario, I think it’s quite plausible he gets ranked above Volpe, Marte, Abrams, and Jung, leaving him in a cluster with (hypothetically) Greene, Alvarez, Carroll, possibly Cruz and Moreno, and the Baz/Perez/Espino/Rodriguez grouping. I’m not sure how you would order that grouping, so he could go quite high.
So to sum it up, I think I would feel comfortable saying he’ll wind up around #15 next year. But although it’s unlikely he’d be a Top 5 prospect, I see how he could get there and there’s no real ceiling on it.
Volpe *has* started heating up over the last month.
Perez’s control numbers are downright crazy for a kid his size and age.
Would a righty CC Sabathia be a possible comp?
When a guy is 6″9 with that level of control and sitting 96-98 you’re pretty much in uncharted territory. Guys that big who throw that hard always have issues putting it where they want to…guys like Randy Johnson and Tyler Glasnow took a long time to get there. Alex Meyer never did (although getting hurt might have something to do with it). And Sabathia, in addition to being much heavier than Perez and left handed…I don’t think he threw quite that hard. I seem to recall he sat more 94-96 in his early years. Maybe I’m mis-remembering.
I hate to say it because of the health problems, but in recent memory the guy who is closest to that is Noah Syndergaard. But heuristically, this is probably what you would expect from a pitcher who is that big, throws that hard, and is that young. Perez is gonna be great, and you’ll be crossing your fingers hoping he doesn’t break.
CC didn’t really have that level of control early on, so I guess he’s not the best comp. IIRC he threw in the upper 90’s in high school but had some health issues that brought his velo down a notch by the time he hit the majors.
So maybe Perez’s best comp right now is a pitching version of Oneil Cruz. Or maybe there really is no comp.
Tbf, 94-96 was gas at the turn of the century
Still no adjustment on Esteury after annihilating AA and hitting .400 with power and speed in his first week in AAA, while also covering multiple OF positions including CF?
I wouldn’t expect to see him in this article, necessarily, but agree that Ruiz’s 35+ is looking increasingly dated. I get there’s still some contact issues there that but his profile feels increasingly high upside (you could see him growing into a star) and high floor (his wheels would be useful at the ML level right now).
Curious to hear Eric’s latest thinking here.
The Padres’ list references his one month hot streak, which has now become two months. El Paso is a bad place to scout stats but the gains on BB% and K% have stuck in a small sample and hopefully point to real improvements. That the Padres are giving him the CF role and keeping CJ at SS (blocking his easiest path to the majors) has to be a good second-hand indication of how he’s seen internally.
Even if he becomes only a decent backup piece, a 2024 OF of Grish, CJ, RH3, Ruiz and another righty (Azocar?) is quite tasty and cheap.
Totally agree on the dangers of scouting stat lines – but the alternative of just scouting the advanced stat line is what I see too much from the scouting community…as if every stat ever has been a statcast darling.
At some point what is actually happening in games needs to be treated as a meaningful input
“Even if he becomes only a decent backup piece …” If you are on this site for fantasy baseball, a guy who already has 41 SB in 252 PAs can be incredibly valuable in ROTO even if he only gets 300 AB and below average production in other categories. And that’s his downside outcome ….
Agreed, if you regress (obviously not doing this mathematically just eyeballing it) what he has done this year and say he is 20-25% k rate, 8-10% BB rate, high BABIP (due to the speed), with home run power in the teens and 70 grade speed, plus CF competent….that is surefire starter with Trea Turner (not 28 HR Trea Turner but earthling Trea Turner) upside
Then we can trade him for the next Wil Myers…
While there is clearly tremendous 90th percentile upside here, I think there is a wide distribution and the realistic upside scenario is more 4th or 5th OF than starter. He’s had fairly pronounced platoon splits the past two years (SS alert and he’s still crushed RHPs this year just not as much as LHPs) and he can provide value with that profile plus his ++ speed and avg OF defense. To the extent we’re going to hit on a 90th percentile outcome, I’d put my chips on James Wood.
I think given the lack of track record, that’s a fair read on the current probabilities. But that sounds to me more like a 45 than a 35+?
I’d take a 40+. It sets the Padres up for an interesting decision at the deadline. I think CJ, Gore and RH3 are essentially untouchable (putting aside a blockbuster). Wood and Ruiz have such high variance that it would be hard to get fair value unless another GM fell in love with them. Eguy and Mears have little value and I think that’s true at this point for Weathers and Knehr. That leaves Campusano (who theoretically upgrades C and 1B/DH spots for free) and Merrill in the middle tier.
Last year, that would fetch one of the mid-tier rentals (Schwarber, Baez, Duvall) but the better players (or those under contract in 2023) all would require some of our younger high-upside prospects. Maybe Merrill plus Eguy and Lamet gets Mancini?
Is Winn a full-time hitter now? I think you have to chase the upside, especially for an organization filled with role players, but it’s always disappointing to miss out on a possible two-way player. He is throwing the ball harder from shortstop than any shortstop in professional baseball, right?
He looks like a star shortstop. He’s top 10 in all the minors in both doubles and triples (exceedingly rare), while popping a few homers and hitting for a high average across High-A and Double-A after just turning 20 years old a couple weeks before the season started.
He’s stolen 16 bases in 17 tries, and by all reports will likely stick at short. But that doesn’t *really* matter, because the bat looks so elite, and with his speed & arm, he can play anywhere but catcher and probably be okay. When it comes to Winn, Longenhagen is just propagandizing with his “max exit velocity” nonsense. It’s axiomatic that an up-the-middle 20-yr-old who dominates High-A at bat and on the bases is a top prospect. What Winn is doing now in AA is just gravy, the difference between a top 20-25 overall prospect and a top 10 type.
Why is Emmanuel Rodriguez still a 40 FV prospect? 19 years 3 months with an OPS over 1.000 in pitcher friendly FSL low A. K% is 25% but otherwise he has shown at least a chance at sticking in CF.
Just haven’t gotten around to that league yet? Given other prospects like Festa, Balazovic, and Steer have moved up and down I figured he would of moved up already too.
In ticking through the Top 118 here (50 FV), 13 have technically “graduated” from prospect status while another 7 are getting fairly close (and that excludes Rutschmann ). By the draft it seems possible the “Top 100” / 50 FV + may be below 100.
Thanks for the great work. Losing multiple writers and you two still producing is appreciated.
I always respect and appreciate the FG take on prospects. I’m interested to learn what it is you’re not seeing from Caleb Kilian that keeps him to a 45 at this point.
Any notes on CHW infielder Lenyn Sosa? Raking in AA at age 22
I was hoping he would pop up in this article too and I haven’t seen any updates on the board. He’s walking more than ever, striking out about 10% less than last year and hitting for far more power than ever before. I’d have to imagine he moves from a 40 to a 45 or 45+ at this point.
In terms of guys taking a step back:
I think that maybe we might have all overrated Brayan Rocchio. His floor is high as a probable shortstop and no-doubt middle infielder but he does not look good right now. He’s probably still a 50 but maybe closer to spot 100 than spot 45.
Is Nick Yorke still a 55 if he isn’t hitting? Is Soderstrom still a 50 if he isn’t hitting? What about Kahlil Watson, who looks awful?
Re: Rocchio. Definitely a weird year. Partially he’s had what looks like bad luck. Last year in AA he had a .350 BABIP, this year it’s .243. And there is some good news: he’s nearly doubled his walk rate while maintaining his K rate. But the bad news is the huge dropoff in power from the year before.
Would love to see Fangraphs bring in Justin Lada of Guardians Baseball Insider as a scouting writer. He’s done an incredible job taking over the site and writing, podcasting, photography.
Was Gunnar Henderson’s pitch selection grade changed on the Board? Just curious since 45 seems low given Eric’s comments and the statistical performance – possibly an oversight?
He usually doesn’t update the tool grades midseason.
I was expecting to see Tovar move, after a couple articles about him recently on this site
Same. Seems likely that he’s at least a 50, if not a 55.
I’d have Tovar a 65, I think. For me he’s #3 overall behind Gunnar Henderson and Adley. Above average defender at short, and he’s killing the ball in AA at age 20, and he steals bases while rarely being caught. What else is he supposed to do, to be one of the top 5 prospects in the sport?
And, oh yeah. His road OPS is 300 points higher than his home OPS. So he might be an even better batter than he appears on the surface. Tremendous talent.
I think we have a more accurate picture of who a player is with a larger sample – I think you’re getting downvoted because of the home/road splits. That’s just not a meaningful split, it’s better to use the overall numbers unless you’re cherry picking to make a guy look better (which is a negative signal on a site like this).
That’s funny, if true. The point of the split was merely to show that Tovar is in no way getting HELP from his home field. That he is at least as good as his overall performance implies.
I choose words carefully. I said *might be* even better. And who gives a hoot about up or down votes? Insecure 13-year-old girls, I suppose.
At any rate, Tovar’s overall numbers are tremendous. No need to massage them at all. He’s uber-elite.
The AL East is going to be even more of a gauntlet in the next couple of years. The Orioles have some really good prospects in AA/AAA, and their major league team has some good building blocks. It’s really too bad Grayson Rodriguez got hurt, but he’ll be back either late this year or at the start of next season.
Gordon Graceffo was drafted by the Cardinals out of Villanova in the 5th round in 2021 and has been killing it in High-A and AA this year – 61 1/3 IP, 66 Ks, 0.85 WHIP and 1.76 ERA. Surprised he does not make it anywhere into this list of 1000+ prospects. Has he just not been entered on the list because the Cardinals list is not done yet, or is he really not among the top 1000 prospects in minor league baseball? if the former, whereabouts would he appear on the list?
It’s because the Cardinal “offseason” list isn’t done yet. In mid-June. (But that’s a good thing apparently, because Longenhagen can’t be expected to “compromise his vision” for the “depth and quality of his work.” At first I was sure he was joking, being a bit facetious, self-depracating. But apparently not. What an asshole.)
Graceffo has staggered in his brief Double-A time, but he’s still a top 150-200 type for me, based on his High-A dominance (and repertoire and health/effectiveness history). If the 22-yr-old can be successful in Double-A by season’s end, he’ll be on path for a mid-rotation career, and properly a back-of-the-top 100 type.
Complaining about the content and you’re not a member? Really?
Wow. Just, wow.
I’m not bashful about being critical of the content here from time to time… but to call the best prospect writer in the game an “asshole” ? A bridge too far for me.
I suggest bleacherreport.com for shallow takes that confirm your biases.
Needs more Esteury Ruiz.
Thanks for the updates. Put me down as someone who has made peace with the idea that the team lists are just an ongoing project, not one with a preseason deadline. As long as you keep reporting the Top 100 in February, I don’t see why anyone should be so impatient to learn about the other prospects, basically none of whom are fantasy-relevant. If you decide to forego some coverage of fringe guys to try to get the lists out earlier, that’s fine, but if you just keep going with the status quo, that’s also fine. Either way I trust your judgment. So grateful for the best prospect coverage out.
The one detail I would like to see better attention paid to is graduations. If someone graduates at 35+ or better then they are reported as such, which is a fantastic feature. But sometimes it’s impossible to tell whether you consider someone as graduated or whether they just dropped below 35+. Everyone’s graduation status should be easily viewable on their player page like it is at Baseball Reference.
Seconded. There are plenty of outlets who publish lists by ST. There’s room for a more measured, detailed approach like this.
Why a 45/50 on Michael Harris II Field grade? Seems like MiLB gold glove last year and most reviews have him plus at minimum. Curious to hear your thoughts on what you thought / noticed differently.
From the Braves write up for those curious…
Combine this with the notion that he may not be a long-term fit in center (though he’s a short-term fit and the best center field defender on Atlanta’s 40-man) because we’re talking about a compact young man with a very low center of gravity and a bottom-heavy frame who is arguably already at physical maturity
The Josh Lowe downgrade is curiously reactive for a prospect writer who likes to let things play out, especially as Lowe has cut his Ks considerably this month (8:9 K:BB) and is hitting well.
Jackson Chorio will join this list soon.
Thoughts on George Valera and why wasn’t moved at all? Guy has cut his K% by 7%, his BB% has remained steady, and he is running an almost .900 OPS in AA as a 21 year old
100%. Valera gets no love. He definitely doesn’t have a 40 grade hit tool. It’s at least a 50, possibly higher.
Tough news about Sixto Sanchez. People were calling him the next Pedro Martinez.
There is no next Pedro Martinez.
Which player currently in the minors has the chance to make the biggest impact in the majors next year?
I think prioritizing depth and quality of the analysis over the timing of release for the team prospect lists is the right call. Those ranking lists aren’t really typical “articles” like other content here. They act more as reference points throughout the year as teams call guys up and trade players. The top prospect team lists are usually my first resource when trying to analyze trades, for instance. Thanks for the great work.
There’s so much value in Eric’s work… in the depth and the quality… but I’m also at the point where I’m looking for mid season updates on actual performance and not outdated “off-season rankings.”
My two-cent suggestion: have the top 15 or 20 of every org done concurrently with the top 100 so that readers can understand orgs in context. Then go back and work through the depth in each system as an update/supplement to the top 15-20 list.
It depends a little bit on whether he has his sources on the Top 15 or 20. I think another method that might work is instead writing up all of the guys you are ready to publish on from November-February (who are very likely guys who are closer to the majors anyway) and then list the other guys you need to learn more about. Then circle back and revise it and publish a new version between March and May if you need to. Might actually be more efficient.
I like that standard off-season work is sometimes classified as a swing change.
Please release a NL East team next. My Nat’s won’t take long! Only, like 5-6 guys really matter.
I just checked in on Bo Naylor….good stuff, exciting prospect
Also Richard Gallardo (Cubs) vs. Andry Lara (Nationals) was an excellent A ball pitching matchup between two former top ranked IFAs who are currently among the youngest arms in full season ball (Gallardo the second year in a row among the youngest on a full season roster all year)…Gallardo’s been 94-96 with more power to his breaking stuff this year, I still think there’s alot more to come. Most of the exciting numbers at this level have been batted ball, both years including a massive drop in pulled contact so far this year, but I think he’s going to be a power rotation arm with command and control of a bevy of pitches led by fastball/curve. Lara also looked pretty damned exciting in his own right for the Nats
Hit tool on Cards’ Burleson looks real.
Michael Harris II should probably be a 65/70 at this point. I’d climb him up to the top 3 at this point just behind JRod and Witt. He’s already at 1 WAR as the youngest MLB player showing gold glove range, a howitzer of an arm, speed on the base paths and opposite field power. Adley you say? 3 years older (losing age 21-23 seasons), 1 WAR behind and playing a position with more wear and tear. Any pitcher over a five tool CF?!?!? Torkelson? He’s hitting below .200 and plays 1B.
The best competition I think to join Harris, Witt and JRod in top 5 are Greene and Carroll. Greene we know is not a comparable fielder and Carroll has a shoulder injury in his background and Harris has cashed in the opportunity to show out at the MLB level.
Give us another month and Harris might put himself at top of class though right now I see it as quite difficult taking the the crown from JRod.