Twins Agree to Borrow Kendrys Morales
The surprising part wasn’t that Kendrys Morales signed immediately after he was no longer tied to compensation. The surprising part was that Kendrys Morales signed with the Minnesota Twins, instead of any of the more obvious possibilities. When Morales signed, the Twins were 29-31, and they fancy themselves a surprising potential contender, which tells you something about where the expectations were set a few months ago. The Twins got Morales for about $7.6 million and four months, and the organizational quotes you hear are full of optimism and positivity.
A rundown, courtesy of Rhett Bollinger:
“We’re certainly in the mix,” [Terry] Ryan said. “We’ve played pretty decent up to this point and have surprised some people. So why not us? We’re at the point in the season where there’s a lot of baseball left. So why not the Twins?”
…
“I think it’s good for all us to know,” [Brian] Dozier said. “We want to win now. We’ve been beat up for three years. We don’t want to rebuild. We want to win. And I think we brought in a guy who can help us do that. So it’s pretty cool for us to see that.”
…
“I think it tells you how close this division is,” [Joe] Mauer said. “Us adding him is definitely a great thing. I’m excited for that.”
The players, as always, are confident, and encouraged by the front office making a splash. Morales will fit right in to get regular at-bats at DH. Ryan’s words might betray the real truth of things — it’s not so much that the Twins being successful is a good possibility, but it’s not an impossibility. Their odds at this point aren’t 0%, so why not try to get better if an opportunity to get better presents itself at no real long-term cost?
Morales definitely makes the Twins better on paper. He got a roster spot at the expense of Jason Kubel, and since 2009 Morales’ lowest wRC+ is 116. Though it might take him a little bit to get up to speed, there’s little reason to think he’s not a good hitter anymore, and he’s good enough to contribute some positive value even as a positionless switch-hitting plodder. There’s no question that Morales is an improvement; there’s no question that the Twins are within striking distance of a playoff spot. They’re five games back in the AL Central, and they’re 3.5 games back of a Wild Card slot.
But then, the Twins are in last in the AL Central. Only three teams are further out of a Wild Card slot. Morales is an improvement but not a huge one, maybe a win or two over the rest of the year. And there’s the matter of what the Twins are. Using the Steamer/ZiPS blended projections, the Twins are among the worst teams in the league. Using season-to-date statistics, the Twins still don’t project to play over .500 from here on out. According to these odds, the Twins should finish around 78 wins. According to these, they should finish around 74. The Twins, so far, haven’t been as bad as some feared, but they haven’t been good, and Morales doesn’t make them good.
Their rotation ranks second-worst in baseball in K%-BB%. Their bullpen is third-worst. The position players are in the bottom-third in WAR. Obviously, the Twins have money, and there’s nothing wrong with taking a short-term shot, just in case. All they lose here is a few million dollars, and if it doesn’t work out, they’ve done nothing to harm their long-term standing. No one, now, is blocked, and Morales ought to be good for PR and clubhouse morale and whatnot. The Twins will be somewhat competitive.
But I think where this gets really interesting is if the Twins play like the Twins are expected to play. So far, they haven’t been bad, but they haven’t been good, and in the coming weeks they could end up with increased distance between themselves and the real contenders. If July rolls around and the Twins are several games out, behind several other teams, they could take on the appearance of a seller, and then there’s Kendrys Morales, possibly available and hopefully hitting.
Morales didn’t have a small pool of suitors, especially lately. A number of teams were interested, but they didn’t want to pay all the money, and a number of those teams were worried that Morales might be rusty, at least at the beginning. He’s not going on a rehab assignment to get up to speed, so in a way his rehab is going to come at the big-league level, in a Twins uniform. Some weeks from now, Morales should be at or around 100%. By that point, the Twins will have a greater understanding of what they really are.
And Morales will have less salary remaining. In a month, he’ll have $5.4 million remaining on his contract. A couple weeks later, that’ll be down to $4.6 million. Morales will be cheaper, and teams wouldn’t have to worry anymore about rust, since he should hit himself out of that. With the added Wild Card, more and more teams fancy themselves in the race, so there’s a lesser number of sellers and therefore available improvements. With Morales, the Twins could have available one of the only proven steady bats, and a good number of teams would have interest in that.
So then Morales could be sold, and sold for a prospect. If the Twins traded Morales toward the end of July, they could add a prospect for the cost of about $3 million. And if they chipped in greater cost considerations, they could add an even better prospect or two. Even now, the Twins know they need to be thinking more long-term than short-term. They signed Morales this past weekend instead of sooner because they didn’t want to throw away a draft pick. If the Twins play really well now, great, but they won’t hesitate to cash in a short-term asset, so you can think of this as two things: it’s a shot on Kendrys Morales and the 2014 Twins, but it’s also a shot at purchasing a young player for a fraction of the cost of Morales’ one-year deal.
No matter what Morales does, the Twins won’t be able to lure a premium blue-chipper. At the end of the day, he’s a non-elite DH, available to another team for several weeks. But if he hits like he’s hit before, the Twins will be able to get a toolsy project or maybe a lower-ceiling type who’s close to the majors, and there’s value in those players, future value that doesn’t disappear come the end of this season. This is kind of like an investment in a young player mystery box, assuming the Twins don’t turn into legitimate contenders all of a sudden.
So, it’s weird to see Morales go to the Twins. The Twins aren’t good. But the Twins don’t have to be good for this to make sense. All they need is for Morales to hit pretty well. Then, one way or another, they should be able to get what they want. There’s always a market for proven power-hitting bats, and by the time Morales might be back on the market, the rust ought to be long gone.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I like seeing teams in a spot like this go for it, just makes the games more interesting overall. While the Twins don’t project high they are certainly in the hunt, much closer than most expected them to be at this point as well. They are in a weak division and Tigers are vulnerable, it’s a good time to take a shot and still have the ability to trade him if it doesn’t work out.
I agree.
The Twins may not be in what we think of as a good spot on the win curve to make a signing like this, but as Jeff mentions, it’s encouraging to the fan base. It makes the Twins a little more interesting to their fans and that type of thing can carry on year to year. The Twins may not be real contenders right now but with their minor league talent they may be in a couple years. Getting the fan base interested now may pay dividends in their competitive future.
And of course, baseball is baseball. Teams way over perform or under perform their peripherals and projections fairly often. No one expected the Brewers to be where they are right now. Good for their front office for taking a shot.
The backup strategy, trading him at the deadline, is also interesting. We’ve seen the Cubs do this in the last few years, making a move in the FA market where they see someone undervalued with the intention of using the player as prospect bait later. It definitely seems like a good use of spending in down years to help make the rebuilding process go quicker.
Change “Thought” to “Though.” Otherwise, a nice little read.
Hey Fangraphs editors, posts like these are posted on ~99% of your articles and contribute absolutely nothing to the discussion. Why don’t you guys add something like a “Suggest an Edit” link at the bottom of each article?
Or they could hire an editor and avoid having these kinds of comments on so many articles.
On an unrelated note, I’m available for freelance opportunities.
Editors are pains in the neck.
I say write on, editor-free.
I dno’t konw, aern’t teh nmubers in besaball mroe ipmortant thna teh speillng of wirtten wrods?
It is a question of exhibiting professionalism and upholding high standards of writing. The suggest an editor alternative would be a good trick, but the writers here (as opposed to the commentors) hold themselves to a rigorous line. At least that tends to support better efforts from the commentariat that I appreciate.
As lnog as the frsit and lsat ltreets are the smae!
And there’s also SOME value to finishing 4th rather than 5th. So really, it’s kind of a no-brainer.
Wonder if Kendrys signed with the Twinkies because they promised to roster him immediately. Given that, I suspect this actually mildly hurts the Twins’ already-low shot at a wild card. Small data point coming up here on the need for Spring training.
I’m not sure how replacing a guy with a 73 wRC+ striking out a third of the time hurts their chances, Morales has been better than that even at his absolute worst. Don’t get me wrong though, by no means am I picking them for a wild card spot.
Morales may only end the season being worth 1 WAR, but given that in 45 games Kubel was worth -1 WAR, a Twins team with Morales in it instead of Kubel could win as many 3 games more than it would have without making that move.
What Kubel has done is analytically irrelevant. It’s what he would’ve projected to do going forward, if they’d instead kept him. Which they probably wouldn’t have, could’ve made Pinto their semi-regular DH, then filled in on his catching days with whatever regular could use a semi-day off.
I think that’s the only argument against it, this surely will cost Pinto some ABs, and put a touch more wear-and-tear on Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, every regular whose bat is good enough to merit a DH day here and there.
I don’t see why it would add extra wear and tear on Mauer. Replacing Kubel, who can’t play 1B, with Morales, who can, gives the Twins a better option to spell Mauer than they had previously. I suspect the difference, in that regard, is tiny but I don’t see why it would add to more wear and tear on Mauer. As for Arcia and Willingham, I see no reason why the Twins should be worried about wear and tear on either of them (for different reasons) but if they are, there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t put Morales in the OF to spell them too. Whether or not that’s a good idea is irrelevant since the Twins have shown over the last few years that they have no problem throwing just about anyone out there in the corners (or even CF).
They will NOT! be putting Kendrys in the outfield. As for first base, well, we’ll see.
He can’t actually be worse than Jason Bartlett.
I agree, if the Tigers were playing anywhere near their potential and the Twins were something like double-digits games back, the move doesn’t happen. Thanks Tigers for stinking so far giving the even more stinkier teams hope!!
Could the Twins theoretically give Morales another qualifying offer after this year so the whole drama gets replayed next offseason?
Supposedly since he signed after this year’s draft, he can’t be offered a qualifying offer. I’ve never heard of that before but I’m pretty sure that’s what I read.
Now if he gets traded, that becomes moot because traded players can’t be giving a qualifying offer.
I’m pretty certain that the wording is that a player has to be with the team from opening day to be able to be offered a qualifying offer. In other words, Morales could have signed with a team on April 2nd and avoided the qualifying offer for next year.
Nope
This “Nope” is for Paul, not Bryz.
Probably pay a bit of the salary in a few increased ticket sales too. The public will believe in the team a little bit more if the team doesn’t act like they expect to be losers, even if that changes 6 weeks from now.
Yeah, I think a move for the fan base is the real impetus here. If you follow the local press, its pretty clear Terry Ryan was brought back to restore fans’ confidence that the team cares about winning.
A move like this will make headlines, kick up ticket sales a bit, and get fans believing the organization cares again. Also think they had to make a move now that Morneau is playing well in CO. Fans didn’t love him getting traded away and now seeing him come back to life, so think this move is intended to soften that blow a bit.
No one has ever gone to a baseball game just to see Kendrys Morales play. Fact.
Team that are in contention longer draw more fans over the course of the season. Fact.
Not so much, really. The big benefit from contention is selling more season tickets the next year. And in September (summer outings to the ballpark tend much more to be planned ahead of time, and to be more social in nature [“Hey, let’s plan a group outing that 1st week in August!”]).
Kendrys’ mother maybe?
I still think the Twins would have been better off without this signing. They have an extreme uphill battle to challenge for a wild-card spot. Any prospect they could potentially get for him in a trade will be a long crapshoot.
I think they would have been better off saving that money now in order to spend it later on an extension for Buxton or another top prospect.
Agree wholeheartedly. While the author offers a scenario where they could end up ahead, that event feels like it has an awful lot of wishcasting in it.
The fat part of the distribution says they’re going to end up paying $7.6M to come in last by a slightly smaller margin.
If the 7.6 million wasn’t being used, then they’re not losing anything, are they? Especially if they end up with a prospect.
Well, it’s always used. No one’s who’s completed the 1st week of Finance 101 looks at things on a calendar basis. Most all of that $7.6 mill would’ve been applied to something down the line. A bigger international signing budget for next year, more ammo to sign up Buxton early, heck a 1-year CD to make Mauer’s contract a touch less painful next year, then you got the extra money to maybe spend then.
I still think it’s a good use of the cash. But it’s never cost-free. Organizations just don’t treat money that way.
Richie, you obviously don’t understand that this isn’t a rational corporation we are talking about. There are owners who probably would have just scooped that money up if it wasn’t spent. It’s like the middle manager who needs to spend his training budget, because if he comes in under budget, his boss will give him a smaller budget next year since “you did fine with a smaller budget last year.”
I’m not making the argument that these are rational though processes. But I am making the argument that MLB budgets don’t roll over year to year like that.
These are owners who made their fortunes in corporate settings, and hire plenty of high-salaried business people to run the various financial and accounting aspects of the operation. There’s an ego trip involved, other than which heck yeah they’re run just like their previous successful business operations.
No, these are owners whose dad made their fortune in a corporate setting.
Very much NO! Saving the 7.6 mill for a Buxton extension? So you want them to plan for 2020? Arcia just came back and is slugging, SS is less of a hole, and now adding Morales does actually make a difference. If their attendance is up because of a descent record and they see a way to prolong that, this is very beneficial to the financial future of the team. If this does nothing more than maintain the fan interest until Buxton and Sano arrive (yes, maybe all the way to next year) then it was well worth it!
And even though the pitching sucks, Alex Meyer is awesome in the minors and could improve the rotation down the stretch without a trade. With completely unimpressive AL wildcard teams and the chance to trade Morales if they fall way out, not liking this move is confusing.
So planning for the future is a bad thing?
If it is about competing now then the Twins could have moved Willingham to DH and thrown a player like Sam Fuld into a regular outfield job. That’s a 1 WAR swing on defense alone, which is about what Morales will likely provide.
Nobody is going to trade an A or even a B prospect for a rental player that, in the end, nobody would even sign for the price of a QO.
I still believe the Twins would have been better off saving the cash and using it down the line when their excellent prospects are ready and they are more likely to compete. They may be only 4 games out, but they still have to jump 7 teams to get there and the current roster does not inspire confidence that that will happen.
Fuld has a concussion. Otherwise he’d be the team’s regular CF already.
Andrew, I think the key factor here is that it’s not our money at stake. I’m often inclined to wince when my favorite team (the Twins) doles out significant $ to non-elite players, but I’m more and more inclined to prefer the team winning more over doing sound business. Wins > Team Profitability.
The Morales signing is a prudent investment of the sort the Twins have seemed unable to even comprehend, much less execute, in recent years. I could not be more supportive.
One short-term ‘splash’ isn’t going to make up for the several ‘thuds’ they made in the off-season.
Not that that was the point, though. They’re looking at this as purely a way of acquiring an extra prospect at the trade deadline, regardless of what they say publicly. No one’s that dumb. They aren’t competing.
No harm in making a public gesture to boost morale, though… especially if it seems to make the team happy.
Can Morales be traded within a couple months of signing? I have absolutely no idea if there are any limits on trading a free agent who signs after the start of the season.
Somehow the competitive bidding process is being circumvented. So many teams in need of offense at DH and 1B, so many still in the WC card race, the trading season yet to start, and all Morales needed was some cash, with no draft pick compensation. And the Twinkies outbid them all? 7.5 million? LOL
There is a 3 syllable word starting with C. I think this was a trial run to gauge the union response. There was none, so it will be expanded next year. JMO.
Also, Morales will have significant trade value come the trade deadline, and probably lands the Twins a prospect, something other teams likely considered as well, and still, nobody could go close to 7.5 million since all else being equal, thats the last park Morales picks to put up numbers
This aint no corksoaking move, you lousy farging somanumbatching icehole.
We are back drinking at the collusion font because it’s a Boras-repped player? Morales, like Drew, weren’t signed for the contracts they believed they were entitled to because they weren’t worth the price. If the MLBPA does push back in the next CBA, great. But let’s not kid ourselves. The quality QO free agents, the ones who’s performance does not need packaging and puffery and explaining, have been getting their money.
What is the collusion font? I’m guessing Comic Sans MS. That’s the font of choice for all uber-serious business dealings.
Watch them sell th
Is guy for a profit.
So the team with the most projected WAR at the end of season wins the world series or has a bigger budget next year to spend more on higher WAR players. There is an article that was just published about Giants on here about performing in high leverage situations much like the Cardinals did last year. If Kendry’s comes in and performs well in high leverage situations, he may bring some fans into the half full Target Field. He very well may pay for himself and Buxton’s extension down the road. Compared to Jason Bartlett and Kubel signings this is a much needed change for Twins fans.
I love seeing what is an aggressive move from a team that does not typically make aggressive moves. If you consider what would have been the full value of the contract, this is the highest yearly salary the Twins have given to a free agent (Willingham’s contract was the highest at $7 mil a year).
It will be interesting to watch what is done with pitching. Correia is the first on the chopping block with Alex Meyer and Trevor May down in AAA and the Super-Two deadline approaching. Tonight could be his last start as a Twin.
Let me just say as a Twins fan even the possibility of the possibility of Twins making a run at the postseason has not been discussed since 2010 so I am a happy camper. And it definitely adds a wrinkle of intrigue to the summer soap opera that is baseball.
Mr. Sullivan writes that Morales is “non-elite DH.” I wish he had gone into that more. I would presume that Morales is pretty close to an elite DH, if not one.
You are a veritable genius, Mr.Sullivan!