Underachieving White Sox Drop Keuchel and Lose Anderson as Well
The White Sox have spent the first two months of the season meandering around .500 due to injuries and underperformance. Over the long holiday weekend, they offered reminders of both issues, first designating struggling starter Dallas Keuchel for assignment and then losing Tim Anderson to a groin strain. With Lance Lynn likely to return from a knee injury within the next couple of weeks, the rotation should remain a source of strength for the defending AL Central winners, but Anderson’s absence looms large in a lineup that’s missing several other key players and struggling to score runs.
The 34-year-old Keuchel had pitched poorly this season, with a 7.88 ERA and 6.20 FIP. He’s averaged just four innings per start, walked hitters at the same rate as which he struck them out (12.2%), and served up a career-high 1.69 homers per nine despite being one of the game’s top groundballers. He appeared to be righting the ship with a pair of solid starts against Red Sox and Yankees earlier this month, allowing two runs in 11 innings against the pair on May 8 and May 14, respectively, but both teams pummeled him upon getting a second look, with damage totaling 12 runs in six innings on May 21 (Yankees) and May 26 (Red Sox).
The White Sox signed Keuchel to a three-year, $55.5 million deal in December 2019, and he pitched well enough the following season (1.99 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.8 WAR) to place fifth in the AL Cy Young voting. But last year, even while the team ran away in the division race, he was little more than an innings-eater, pitching to a 5.28 ERA and 5.23 FIP in 162 innings and being left off the Division Series roster. Last year’s Statcast expected numbers (xAVG, xSLG, xwOBA, xERA) were actually worse than this year’s numbers:
| Year | BBE | EV | Barrel% | Hard-Hit% | xAVG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | ERA | FIP | xERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 661 | 87.3 | 4.1% | 32.8% | .246 | .362 | .305 | .293 | 3.74 | 3.69 | 3.60 |
| 2019 | 348 | 88.8 | 5.5% | 38.5% | .261 | .423 | .327 | .329 | 3.75 | 4.72 | 4.82 |
| 2020 | 198 | 86.8 | 4.0% | 31.3% | .278 | .394 | .249 | .317 | 1.99 | 3.08 | 4.27 |
| 2021 | 558 | 88.3 | 8.9% | 39.7% | .302 | .493 | .356 | .372 | 5.28 | 5.23 | 6.15 |
| 2022 | 124 | 88.3 | 8.9% | 34.7% | .280 | .445 | .411 | .349 | 7.88 | 6.20 | 4.48 |
Looking back, Keuchel’s 2020 expected numbers contained some warnings that his season wasn’t nearly as good as his ERA or even his FIP suggested. His results on his cutter, in particular, were way out of line with his expected results:
| Year | % | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15.5% | .231 | .235 | .398 | .356 | .289 | .279 | 21.7% |
| 2019 | 19.8% | .290 | .273 | .565 | .514 | .387 | .366 | 16.3% |
| 2020 | 30.9% | .203 | .328 | .246 | .517 | .241 | .393 | 21.4% |
| 2021 | 24.4% | .329 | .314 | .518 | .508 | .381 | .373 | 17.4% |
| 2022 | 17.2% | .419 | .300 | .935 | .633 | .589 | .403 | 21.5% |
Note that those odd 2020 expected results, which no doubt owe something to the small sample, bore much closer resemblance to his xBA and xSLG for the following year than to his actual AVG and SLG from ’20. Long story short, Keuchel came out smelling like roses when his overall wOBA allowed was 58 points below his xwOBA, but when his barrel rate more than doubled and his wOBA rose 62 points above his xwOBA in 2022, he was out of a job.
Said general manager Rick Hahn of the move to DFA Keuchel with about $14.1 million still owed: “Obviously, given the back of the baseball card, so to speak, we wanted to give him the opportunity this season to show that he was able to get himself back on track… There was not a magic number of starts, necessarily, that would have been required before we made that decision.”
Hahn cited the reversals of fortune against the Yankees and Red Sox as weighing in the decision:
“In fact, though we had been talking about this internally for a period of time, his starts against New York at our place and Boston at Fenway were impressive enough to continue to give him the ball. Obviously, the trend from the last couple, especially the other night, was enough for us to say it was time to try something else in that spot.”
Keuchel’s departure from the organization, which put him on release waivers on Tuesday, owes something to the initial success that Johnny Cueto has had since joining the rotation in mid-month after signing a minor league deal in early April. The 36-year-old Cueto, who joined the rotation just in time to help the team navigate through a pair of doubleheaders in a six-day span, has pitched to a 2.41 ERA and 2.76 FIP in 18.2 innings over three starts so far. He’s done that while throwing predominantly sinkers (31.8%) and sliders (24.8%) and mustering a higher average velocity on his sinker (92.0 mph) and four-seamer (92.4, thrown 15.2% of the time) than in any full season since 2015, though this is actually the fourth straight season he’s gained a bit of steam. We’ll see the extent to which that holds up, but it’s a promising rebound after injuries limited him to just one appearance last September.
Meanwhile, Michael Kopech (1.29 ERA, 2.71 FIP), Dylan Cease (3.69 ERA, 2.86 FIP), and Lucas Giolito (2.63 ERA, 3.69 FIP) have all pitched quite well. Lynn began his rehab assignment with three scoreless innings for Triple-A Charlotte on Sunday, throwing 39 pitches, and figures to make two more starts before rejoining the White Sox. In the interim, the Sox will likely continue with Vince Velasquez, who has been shaky (5.79 ERA, 5.49 FIP) — seriously, when has he not been shaky? — in the fifth starter spot, or once again recall Davis Martin from Charlotte for a spot start or two. Cease, who is unvaccinated, was placed on the restricted list (as was reliever Kendall Graveman) and will miss this week’s trip to Toronto. As he pitched Sunday, he wasn’t due to start during the three-game set, but he wasn’t eligible to be replaced on the roster, either — leaving the team shorthanded for a few days.
If Saturday was dedicated to the White Sox making a move to replace their weakest starting pitcher, Sunday required them to make plans to replace their most productive hitter. Fresh off a week in which he was in the national spotlight for winding up on the receiving end of comments from Josh Donaldson that Anderson called “disrespectful” (and others called racist), the 28-year-old shortstop left Sunday’s game in the fifth inning after making a standout defensive play on a grounder off the bat of the Cubs’ P.J. Higgins:
Anderson’s right groin strain was apparent enough that manager Tony La Russa acknowledged he would miss time even before the team sent him for an MRI. “He made that spin, not sure exactly if he got his spike stuck or something,” said La Russa. “That’s typical, he goes on the IL making a great play at the time we needed it.”
The White Sox have offered no indication yet how long Anderson will be out [Update: at least three weeks], but amid the lineup’s other injuries, his absence is glaring. The All-Star shortstop is hitting .356/.393/.503; his batting average ranks third in the AL, his 2.2 WAR fifth, his on-base percentage and 163 wRC+ eighth, and his slugging percentage 10th. Elsewhere, the team is also without Eloy Jiménez, who hasn’t played since April 23 due to a right hamstring strain; Luis Robert, who was placed on the COVID-19 injured list on May 24; and Yoán Moncada, who has been limited to 15 games all season due to an oblique strain and a sore left quad, the latter of which has kept him to a single plate appearance over the team’s last three games. While Robert and Moncada (who has hit just .133/.175.250 in 63 PA) could return to the lineup later this week, Jiménez (.222/.256/.333) tweaked his injured hamstring during the second plate appearance of his rehab assignment on Saturday and hasn’t played since.
That’s a lot of talent to lose at once — three of the team’s top four players by WAR last year, even with the various 2021 injuries — and it helps to explain why the Sox are third-to-last in the league in scoring (3.63 runs per game), wRC+ (89), on-base percentage (.290), slugging percentage (.356), and WAR (2.3). So does the fact that five of the team’s top 10 players in terms of plate appearances thus far have a wRC+ of 83 or lower, namely Gavin Sheets (83), left fielder AJ Pollock (65), second basemen Josh Harrison (51) and Leury García (36), and catcher Yasmani Grandal (49). It hasn’t been pretty.
While Anderson is gone, Garcia and Danny Mendick (who was recalled from Charlotte to take Keuchel’s roster spot) are the likely fill-ins at shortstop. Garcia, who’s coming off the best performance of his career (98 wRC+, 1.8 WAR), is hitting just .190/.200/.276 this year, and he’s banged up as well, nursing a bruised side that kept him out of Saturday’s game and limited him to a pinch-hitting role in Sunday’s 12-inning walk-off victory. Mendick, a 28-year-old utilityman, has been bouncing between Charlotte and Chicago since 2019 and is a career .240/.299/.350 (80 wRC+) hitter who was even worse (.220/.303/.287, 68wRC+) last year. Luke Appling ain’t walking through that door.
According to our Playoff Odds, the White Sox left the gate with a 59.2% chance of winning the division, a 72.2% chance of making the playoffs, and a 5.3% chance of winning the World Series. Today, they’re 4.5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central race, and their odds of winning the Central have dropped to 48.0%, with a 64.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 2.8% chance of winning the World Series. More than half a dozen AL teams with worse records would willingly take those chances at this point, but the White Sox need Anderson and the team’s other injured players to return in timely fashion and help offset the other slumping players before they wind up in an even deeper hole.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
I enjoyed the irony implying that Luke Appling would help a team full of ‘ol aches and pains
Keuchel should try to catch on with the diamondbacks cause they have an elite defense and a need for pitching. He could be the difference maker to see if Arizona can make the playoffs.
Reunite with Strom as well.
Well he could be a difference-maker, but a negative one. I think it’s pretty clear this isn’t a major leaguer anymore
This is kind of like a game of “on what team would Dallas Keuchel do the least damage.” The White Sox are among worst teams for a low-strikeout, groundball heavy pitcher, but there might be teams where Keuchel makes more sense than, say, Tanner Roark or Homer Bailey.
They should just snag Kevin Newman when he comes off IL
I’ve had to spend way to much time trying to explain the White Sox underperformance to myself and others, but all of this was kind of predictable, at least as a possibility. Everything that could go wrong has, but that doesn’t mean nobody could have seen any of it coming.
Since 2019, None of Moncada, Jimenez, Anderson, Vaughn, and Robert had played more than 144 games. There are a few seasons in the 130’s and 120’s for GP, but every year they have to fill in a month or more at each of those positions. That’s why Leury Garcia has played way too much the last few years. He is a fine supersub, but when he averages 140 games and over 500 PA, he is getting too much playing time. (Especially if your 77 year old manager is going to insist on hitting him second or third, but that’s another post). That’s why I felt a real second baseman was important and they didn’t bother with that. It wasn’t because they didn’t have enough offense without him on paper, it was because you could count on those good, young players missing 100 or more games between them and one more good bat would help to compensate for their absence or regression from their older players like Grandal and Abreu, which has also happened some.
They also decided that the rotation was “good enough.” They knew they were going to limit Kopech’s innings, they could probably see that Keuchel looked done most of last year since they left him off the playoff roster, Cease was still young and they couldn’t be sure he would take another step forward, and pitchers get hurt. Sure, 100 starts from Giolito, Lynn, Cease, and Kopech was probably better than most teams were going to get out of their rotation, but they also could have justified bringing in someone good as better insurance. They settled for Velasquez and then when their plan was exposed before opening day, whatever they could find on the street which was Cueto.
It should have been obvious to everyone that they could not count on help from the minor leagues this year. It was going to have to be Free Agents.
I guess the reasons they stood pat was they felt they were money and they felt they had enough.to make the playoffs. It’s not my money, but I don’t get why $190M is ok, but no way they could do $210M. It’s only about 10% and having more good players is always good. That’s what the best teams do. With the state of their farm system and their long history of bad drafts, they have a window of contention. It isn’t going to be open forever and the history of windows like this is you don’t recognize they are closed till after it has happened and you find yourself as a 90 loss team with no clear path out of it. I am very disappointed that they seem okay with not maximizing their odds in that window by getting as many good players as possible.
And once you’re at $210, you can make the exact same argument. At some point you have to decide enough is enough, yes?
They are realizing the consequences of that decision.
But I don’t completely buy that argument because the CBT will start to diminish the returns on your investment. It probably isn’t a coincidence that Spotrac projects their CBT Payroll at about $230.6M, or $600K over the threshold. That will cost them about $120K in penalties if accurate, which is obviously nothing for even the most cash strapped MLB club.
I just think that when you get to the point where you have that chance, you should do everything in your power to maximize your odds. To my eye, this is the same philosophy they employed in the mid-teens where it was “let’s hope we can find some free agents to have a good year and then Sale and Quintana can carry us in the playoffs.” It’s a little better since it gives you more than one year’s chance at success, but it is still hoping to be good enough to get a shot and hope to get lucky after that instead of trying to reduce the luck element by being more talented.
It’s a legit strategy. Dave Dombrowski made a lot playoff runs doing just that – max out payroll, empty the farm, etc
Most clubs don’t operate that way though – they prefer the “extend window” strategy. YMMV
No, they are realizing the consequences of having three of their top four hitters (by WAR) out with injuries.
But that’s kind of one of my points. This was predictable.
Since 2020, the White Sox have only played 35 games with all 6 of Anderson, Robert, Abreu, Jimenez, Moncada and Grandal in the lineup. That covers about 270 games now. That’s why they needed more than just Josh Harrison (bad) and AJ Pollock (also chronically hurt).
I don’t think spending (total) money is the issue. The issue right now is how it was spent. Keuchel was a necessary consolation prize after they chased Wheeler earlier that offseason, and they even supposedly offered him slightly more money than Philly did. Keuchel’s contract probably prevented them from paying similar money to Rodon to stay for at least a year or two, or they get Rodon-level quality for similar price if Wheeler accepts.
There are other, smaller things that just don’t make a ton of sense. Abreu’s making $17M, Leury Garcia $5.5M, Harrison $5M, Kelly $8.5M, Graveman $8M… these all all (slight) overpays for less than impact players. Closer to market value contracts for these guys probably shaves ~$10M off the payroll; that $10M could have spent, for instance, by trading for a guy like Adam Frazier to bolster an obviously very thin middle infield.
That said, the bigger problem is that a bunch of very important guys— an alarming number of them in their mid-30s— are performing well below their career levels. Nothing much was expected from the Harrison/Garcia/McGuire trio, but they’ve been nearly unplayable, not just below average. Considerably more was expected from Pollock, Grandal, and Moncada, so them performing sub-replacement level is really difficult to overcome.
This is another example of why cheering on teams for uncharacteristically spending money is not a great idea. Grandal was such a good value, I got it. Abreu was seemingly an overpay but it was unlikely he would turn completely into a pumpkin and he made it look really smart anyway. Keuchel was pretty obviously a mistake, and it prevented them from spending money later.
Don’t cheer teams that suddenly splurge. Cheer teams that make a consistent commitment to up payroll for a number of years.
The White Sox, as a team, have consistently been top tier in BABIP.
This year they’re last.
Underlying statcast metrics say nothing is wrong. Statcast says the team (especially Abreu and Grandal) are still making good contact and hitting the ball hard.
Maybe it’s the ball(?)
Or a change in approach from the coaching(?)
Or just super unlucky(?)
And also they can’t field, and are merely average vs right-handed pitching, even when fully healthy.
Yeah, I pointed that out a few weeks ago. They were (roughly) top 5 in things like barrel% and hard hit rate, but bottom 5 in wRC+ and runs scored. Cleveland was the opposite – hitting the ball softly (J-Ram excluded) and scoring a lot of runs. They don’t walk enough or take any pitches and they hit a lot of ground balls.
There is still some luck/sequencing involved too. With the bases loaded, they are 3 for 30 with one walk, 2 HBP, 3 sac flies, 12 RBI’s and hitting .100/.167/.133. They also have a 25% K-rate with the bases loaded, compared to 19.7% overall. If they had been mediocre in situations like that instead of phenomenally bad, it could have meant a couple more wins.
I don’t think it’s just one thing. A couple guys got hurt, a couple other guys got old, a couple of guys who were playing over their head stopped (hello, Leury Garcia!). Keep in mind that xwOBA-type stats are going to be off since the whole league-wide offensive environment changed.
One thing that’s not a problem is sequencing. The White Sox’s RS/G as estimated by BaseRuns is 3.68, and in reality is it is 3.63. That’s not much. Also, they’ve been a bit lucky by BaseRuns and Pythagorean.
So, to sum up, I don’t think it’s one thing.
I’m a big fan of run differential and pythagorean record. But I think there are a few times they don’t tell the whole story.
– They favor offensive minded teams more than pitching minded teams because pitching oriented teams play more close games.
– Managers have an effect. Especially when your manager refuses to use his best relievers when down by 2 runs even when they are rested and tomorrow is an off day.
– I am not sure how much of a sample size is big enough to make it worthwhile.
I like base runs too, but their miserable performance with the bases loaded (.100/.133/.167) has probably cost them 10 or 20 runs and that’s a win or two.
Also, I need some one to give me a reason why Luis Robert isn’t starting tonight that doesn’t convince me that TLR should be fired immediately. If your best remaining hitter is healthy enough to come off the IL, why don’t you want him leading off for your bad offensive team?
There are many other problems. The BABIP was just the big surprising one. All the other problems were expected. (and no surprise players stepping up unlike last year).
Only Robert and Moncada (and Engel) can play reliable defense and they’ve been missing time. Everyone else is somewhere between bad and awful. (except Tim is sometimes great, but sometimes horrendous).
Too many DH options.
They can’t hit right handed pitching. And every team knows it.
No depth at starting pitcher.
Bullpen is not as good as advertised. Lots of good arms, but only one really great arm.
Graveman and Bummer, like Keuchel, heavily rely on good defense (of which Sox don’t have).
Pretty much no depth of positional players.
Gavin Sheets was over-relied upon, and has been a total flop thus far.
Eloy has been a huge disappointment. Showing to be super injury prone, and also not really that good when he has been in the lineup.
Moncada has been good, but also disappointing as well. His power has disappeared since getting covid in 2020, and he has not been able to improve his strikeout rate over many years.
No reliable every day 2nd baseman – a problem that Chicagoans saw the Cubs struggle with for a couple years.
I wouldn’t say they ignored 2B. They were really interested apparently in Marcus Semien, but were outbid by TEX. They could’ve plugged that 56 wRC+ and .266 xwoba into the lineup for just about 3x the Dallas Keuchel contract.
I actually expected them to make a run at Semien because they have a history of bringing guys back. I was in favor of it, which shows why I shouldn’t be a GM.
I also expect them to be interested in Frankie Montas for the same reason, but I don’t think they have enough to outbid other teams and if they have 4 good, healthy starters in late July they may not be that interested in starting pitching since there are definitely going to be more pressing needs.
I wouldn’t say everything that could go wrong has. They’re .500 despite having a -45 run differential. And they’re not over-performing their RD because of a great bullpen, since they are 17th in FIP and 25th in ERA from their RP.
The back end of the bullpen is generally excellent— Bummer, Graveman, Kelly, Hendriks— when all healthy/available. There’s also a couple of decent middle relievers in Foster and Lopez. The front end, though, has often consisted of AAA guys getting really lit up in games they’re already losing because it’s rare that those top 6 guys are all available and healthy. The same depth & injury issues are present as with the rest of the team, but they’re still reasonably well set up to hold late leads if the currently anemic offense can generate one.
They just need to take a Joe Madden advise and Try Not to Suck.
Can someone please explain why Joc Pederson is not on the White Sox when he was available for $6mil !!!?????
And instead the WhiteSox are going with an older and more expensive and injury-prone right-handed bat of equal (or worse) fielding ability of which they exchanged the proceeds of a 4th overall draft pick for! ???
Because Joc spent the last couple years playing at replacement level. The Giants’ ability to work magic on talented but flawed hitters is what’s going on.
Pollock meanwhile spent the past two years with wRC+ north of 130, which plays even with poor OF defense. Madrigal meanwhile has been below replacement level and injured.
No, Joc demanded way more than the Sox offered and ended up settling for less.
The White Sox were in desperate need for a left-handed hitting power bat who could be reliable in the outfield. Joc was exactly that. Ignore 2020 and his numbers look pretty darn good. He’s not exactly old, either. And they would not have had to give up valuable resources (of which they are now the thinnest in MLB).
I guess maybe they were bitter about him ignoring their previous offer. (which would be kind of petty and dumb).
A lot of teams’ fans are asking that question right now. I was pretty shocked at the time that’s all it took. Maybe they offered more playing time.
Early in FA they offered Joc more than 6 million per season but at the time he was demanding at least twice this.
Ultimately Joc overplayed his hand, settling for a one year deal.
That was last year’s FA, not this year. Then they immediately went for Adam Eaton, who also got DFA’d before the midway ooint
I think you answered your own question. Pollock was basically free. Pedersen would have cost additional money.
Pollock is getting paid $10m this year. Are LAD covering all of that?
No, it’s that he was traded for Kimbrel who is making $16M.
As a Twins fan I don’t feel sorry for the Sox in the least. Their fans insisted to Twins fans last year that our window was closed, our team sucks, and the White Sox we’re going to be a contender for years to come… Karma’s a b*tch ain’t it?
The Sox currently have 6 players on the IL, 1 of which is a minor leaguer on the 40 man. The Twins currently have 13 with Sonny Gray likely to make 14 plus lots of banged up players playing through stuff (as I’m sure the Sox are too). Only Dobnak of those 14 would likely be in the minors right now. That’s 5 (soon to be 6) starting pitchers, 4 relievers and 4 position players.
Perhaps Hahn should of worried more about the depth for the team.
CHW’s depth is far less than stellar, particularly in the middle infield. They’re certainly not playing very well right now, but they’re at .500 at just over the quarter mark; the Twins’ collapse had them at 22-31 one year ago today.
“Their fans” Oh yeah? Got proof
The entire training staff should be fired. Starts with their ineptness and the players not getting in baseball shape. Look at the injuries this year alone. It is an epidemic in baseball now. Groins , quads, hamstrings, calf’ , obliques every night. Good thing baseball isn’t a contact sport.
If every team has this problem, could it be that the issue was the disruption to training camp and the beginning of the season?
It’s a chronic multi-year pattern at this point, which appears to have begun when their longtime head trainer Herm Schneider retired after 2018.
The old trainer was fired a couple years ago, before this run of injuries started, allegedly for anti-LGBTQ discrimination. The new ones don’t seem to be performing too well but at least they fit Reinsdorf and Williams view for the team.
It doesn’t help that the White Sox signed a manager that’s younger than some of their best players.