Unnecessary Post: The Astros Look Amazing
I’ve been waiting for this. I’ve been waiting for this ever since I saw a tweet a little over a month ago.
With Cole, Astros now project at 103.5 2018 wins. Easily the highest pre-season W projection NEIFI has ever forecast.
— NEIFI Analytics (@NEIFIco) January 13, 2018
I don’t know much about the NEIFI projection system, and I don’t have access to its archives. I don’t know how far back it goes. The tweet, though, stuck in my memory, and for weeks I looked forward to what numbers would show up right here. We’ve always had the Steamer projection system numbers on display, but only the other day did we get to include ZiPS. So, things are pretty much final, pending injuries and a few further significant free-agent signings. The Astros’ roster looks set. Maybe there’s a bullpen battle or two. Whatever. Here are the current projected standings.
The Astros are projected to win 101 games. That’s an extraordinary total, and no one is close. I’ll acknowledge right here that this isn’t very surprising. Also, the Astros just actually won the World Series, so, who cares? A great team is a great team. I get it, and you can close this window if you want to. I’m just wired to delight in fun facts. I come carrying further fun facts.
I’m going back to my spreadsheet of preseason team projections since 2005. This time of year, it’s one of my favorite little resources. In 2016, the Cubs were projected to win 96.2 games, which was the highest preseason projected win total since 2006. And then, the following year, the Cubs were projected to win 96.4 games, and the Dodgers were projected to win 96.7. Those just slightly eclipsed the Cubs’ mark from the year before. But the actual best projection I’ve had on record belongs to the 2005 Cardinals, projected to finish 101-61. Those Cardinals actually finished 100-62. Good job of meeting expectations. Way to go, Cardinals.
This year’s Astros are also projected to win 101 games, tying those Cardinals for the best projection in the era. And if you want to be needlessly precise, this year’s Astros are projected to win 101.3 games. Technically, that would be better. I don’t want to sit here and make too much of three-tenths of one projected win, but when I sort the spreadsheet in descending order of projected wins, the 2018 Astros are at the top. This team looks incredible.
Baseball has played 20 seasons with 30 teams. Over that span, 24 teams have won at least 100 games, for an average of basically one a season. The Astros are already projected to win more than 100 games, and projections are built to regress to the mean. I don’t mean to be all breathless here, because, after all, last year’s Astros finished 101-61 in the regular season, too. Everyone has already long known the Astros are great. It’s just, this isn’t some ordinary great team. I know that the actual baseball is independent of what the preseason projections say, but this is a testament to what the organization has built.
The Astros are looking at a full season of Justin Verlander. They’re looking at a full season of Gerrit Cole. Hector Rondon and Joe Smith have been added to the bullpen. The significant departures would be Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki, Mike Fiers, Joe Musgrove, Luke Gregerson, and Michael Feliz. There are some players in there who I believe in, but last season the group combined to be worth 0.3 WAR. The Astros are so good and so deep that Brad Peacock is unlikely to even open the year as a member of the starting rotation. As a starter last year, Peacock ran a 3.22 ERA, with a strikeout rate of 29%. It’s fair to say he’d be a starter for literally everyone else.
We can take a quick look at the Astros, positionally. Here is projected WAR by position, as expressed by MLB rank. I can’t think of a better way to explain how the Astros look as good as they do. Let me take that back. They’re literally the reigning champions. That’s also a good explanation. But, well, I already made this plot, so I should share it.
The Astros, of course, rank first in baseball in overall projected WAR. They’re first in projected position-player WAR, and they’re first in projected pitcher WAR. Positionally, they’re first at second base and shortstop, and they’re in the top five at catcher, center field, and right field. The Astros also project to have the best rotation, and the second-best bullpen. If there’s a weakness, it might be 1B/DH, but even there, weakness is relative, because Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis are fine. And if you have any concern about left field, well, Kyle Tucker is coming, and he was recently ranked the No. 10 overall prospect.
Let’s go back to the spreadsheet that stretches to 2005. As noted, the Astros are already at least tied for the best projection in the window. But there’s also another way of looking at this. The Astros project seven wins better than the next-best team. That’s the widest gap in the 14 seasons. The average win gap has been three. The 2005 Cardinals projected five wins better than the next-best team, and so did the 2007 Yankees. That would be the Astros’ competition. They’re out there, standing as the clear team to beat.
Now, about those 2007 Yankees — they didn’t actually finish with the real best record in baseball. They were very good, but even in their own division, they wound up a couple games behind the Red Sox. You don’t need another reminder that projections aren’t destiny. But the Astros have that one trait we all remember, that being that they just won the championship. According to people who followed the 2017 Cubs closely, they struggled at first because they didn’t seem to have the same motivation. Might the Astros experience something of a World Series hangover? Might they disappoint, that inner fire having been extinguished?
Sure, it could happen, but it hasn’t happened much in recent history. Out of the 13 defending champions I have in the spreadsheet, they’ve averaged 88 projected wins, and 86 actual wins. That does show slight under-performance, but it’s mostly because of the 2014 Red Sox, who fell flat on their faces. If you switch from averages to medians, you go from 87 projected wins to 88 actual wins. Not much of a hint of anything. And let’s say you want to increase the sample, because, well, playing throughout the playoffs can be exhausting, and it shrinks the offseason. Teams coming off World Series losses have averaged 88 projected wins, and 91 actual wins. The medians are 89 and 93. Fatigue hasn’t really shown up. At least recently, there hasn’t been a carryover effect from World Series participation. Yes, winning it all certainly changes things, but, even the 2017 Cubs shook it off. Players are motivated to win the first time, but then after that, they can be motivated to try to establish a dynasty.
I don’t know how the Astros feel. And of course the Astros could be toppled. They’re not baseball’s only great team, and a handful of unfortunate injuries could knock them down several pegs. That’s why, as they say, they play the games. I just wanted to shed some light on this particular moment in time. Right now, at this moment, the Astros are not only the league’s defending champions. They also appear to be a juggernaut. Relative to these Astros, even the Yankees are an underdog.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
When I saw the ZiPS projection, my first thought was: “It’s. Not. Fair!”
And then I realized fans of probably 25 other teams were probably thinking the same thing.
The more you look at the depth chart, the enormity of this team starts to set in. For example, in addition to Brad Peacock, Collin McHugh (who last year put up 1.1 fWAR in 63 innings) is only slated for 37 innings in the rotation this year.
i always wonder where articles like this are like the old Cover of Sports Illustrated Curse.
Astros should be really good. But you have to play the games, and baseball is one of those weird sports where fate can take a strange hand.
I always wonder whether forgetting my umbrella is what made it rain.
“Ahh, not a bear in sight. The bear patrol must be working like a charm.”
“That’s specious reasoning, Dad.”
“Thank you, honey.”
The June 2014 SI cover disagrees with you.
(Besides, everyone knows that curses aren’t real…except Madden, of course)
OK, I suppose i deserved that, so I’ll downvote myself….
And it turns out I can’t.
The Gerrit Cole acquisition really blew my mind. Getting a great starter after a chip isn’t unprecedented, I’m a Yankees fan after all, but for a team that is already so formidable it really makes them seem unbeatable. I can’t wait for this season to start.
You use the term ace quite loosely
Fair point, edited. My opinion of him is a bit stuck in the past.
Way to ruin my post! I agree there is still some potential for a small step forward with Cole. Time will tell.
I would call him a “potential ace.”
He was a #2 last year, and he’s got upside.
(for some reason I thought he performed more like a #3, but when I clicked over to his page I couldn’t really support that)
I feel like “he’s not an ace” is baseball’s version of “but is Joe Flacco ELITE”
Cole was the 26th qualified starter according to WAR. Doesn’t that make him the best pitcher on some team?
Yes, it does make him the best pitcher on some team.
But being the best pitcher on some team does not make him an ace (e.g. Chacin, Bundy)
The consensus seems to be that there are somewhere between 15~20 aces in the game at any given point.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-you-defined-an-ace/
The biggest super team fail in the same time period was a 12-loss difference from their preseason prediction in a previous Sullivan article. So if the Astros fail as bad as any other super team has failed in this period relative to their talent, they should still make the playoffs with 89 wins.
Another way to look at it is that the stdev of projections is around 6 games. In order to miss the playoffs, the Astros’ results would need to miss by 2+ STDEV from projections, something that should happen to about 1-2 teams per year.
I’m guessing the probability of them winning 90 is greater than winning 112. Even so, it seems the Astros have about as good a shot at winning 110 games as they do missing the playoffs (below 86 wins or so).
Just incredible. Tucker should quickly become a plus player in one of their weakest spots, and Whitley will come up this year and should be good as well.
Even as a Padre fan, I kinda love the era of superteams.
Whitley has been suspended for 50 games.
Honestly, they could make this work out fine as an innings limiter.
Even if they *did* miss by 2 standard deviations, in the AL West the next best team would also need to be nearly a standard deviation above *their* projections for Houston to miss the playoffs. And even then, 89 wins has a pretty good shot at a wild card.
Does that include the brand-new Angels? My cursory examination of ZiPS indicates a projection of ~88-74 (pitching a little iffy, but position players considerably strengthened), And that’s the projection: one SD above that brings them within (distant) range.
Then again, the projection is heavily dependent upon Mike Trout not being injured, and Shohei Ohtano pitching pretty much as expected. Standard deviations are all very well, but the Angels have variance baked in, more so than other teams. The Astros appear to be built to withstand quite a lot of adversity before things actually start tipping the wrong way.
If the Astros underperform by 2 std. deviations, then it is highly likely that at least one of the other teams in AL west significantly overperform. These are far from independent outcomes.
tucker will not hit like most people think. went to the afl and didnt look like a top prospect.
Welp, I guess that’s settled. You would think one guy who struggled in one stint of fall league baseball would eventually become a half-decent major leaguer, but…
I think the only question mark is starting pitcher help. astros pitchers haven’t really been durable the last years. There is verlander but he is in his mid 30s. maybe if two major starters go down there is a chance for the angels but then again the astros could just package tucker with two other guys and get another TOR guy.
Thus I think it is very unlikely that anyone stops the astros in their division but if mcullers and keuchel struggle with health again it could be more 93 than 101 wins. if everything breaks right of course they could also win 110 games…
Astros have Peacock, McHugh, Martes, and then Whitley after his 50-game suspension if a couple of starters go down. Astros projection would still be the best in baseball without Keuchel and McCullers adding in their replacements.
Anything can happen, but it’s hard to imagine a team (this year or any other) where starting pitching depth is *less* of a “question mark” than it is with these Astros.
Verlander, Cole, Keuchal, McCullers, Morton, Hughes, Peacock.
That’s 7 average+ starters, plus they have a few prospects who can look to do damage. I feel like I’d be more worried about the pen (given the late season/playoffs issues Giles+ had).
average is the key word. I just don’t think that staff can beat the yankees. time will tell.
Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton were on the DL regularly last season, including a stretch where all 3 were out at the same time (and this was all before the Verlander trade).
The 2018 team is different, of course. But with the addition of Cole and the backups of McHugh (who also missed the first 2/3rds of last season), Peacock, and Martes, one could argue the starting pitching depth is deeper now as opposed to last year’s team.
As a long time Houston fan I must say I’m scared of all the accolades given that it’s natural to assume the worst when it comes to my sports teams. I’ve been searching all offseason for regression and injury potential while wondering if our title was Fluky given that we won two game 7s. Not to mention the title cost the city DeShaun Watson’s season.
I think if the team truly is as good as projections all think, we gotta treat everyone with kids gloves. All our starters should have innings limits and hitters have rotating days off. I also think there’s still room to grab a legit DH/mediocre fielder guy either in FA or trade to shore up on Gurriel/Gattis combo.
But even then I’m still dreading something bad will happen.
Don’t worry. You still have the Texans.
huh?
Hinch is pretty good about giving hitters regular rest throughout the season. He’ll also play Altuve, Springer, Yuli, Marwin, whoever, at DH. And with Hinch’s statement about moving Yuli around the diamond, he and Marwin could easily fill in for anyone in need of rest.
What’s frightening is that there’s room for improvement. Looking at 1B/DH, the Astros could make a speculative offer to Logan Morrison, who might regress but might maintain a 3-WAR sort of performance. (ZiPS is keen on him; Steamer less so.) And he’s left-handed, which works with platoons for the Astros at the very least — according to current depth charts at the positions.
Or, failing that, a cheap trade in July using the excellent farm system. Think another Verlander, but targeting absolutely any weak position or even the BP.
I suspect that 100 wins is actually a floor for this team.
Is there still some room for improvement? Could be, which is downright scary.
100 wins as a floor though? I don’t think that term (‘floor’) means what you think it means… 🙂
Not surprisingly, that’s an amazing team.
It would be fun to peruse the “Positional Ranks in Projected WAR” charts of all of the teams. just sayin’
Altuve is one of those guys that I’ve expected to regress every season since 2014, but he just keeps getting better and better. He’s legitimately the second best player in baseball IMO. Him and Correa look like they could go down as one of the best double play duos in baseball history.
They’ll unquestionably be great, but I think there’s some downside (and not too much upside) with the pitching staff. And remember that their depth will come into play only in the case of injuries, not really underperformance unless it’s extreme (i.e. Verlander’s not going to lose his rotation spot if he’s got a 4.30 ERA in July). I think there’s a decent chance that they end up assigning innings to the starters in a suboptimal way (this is largely due to my extreme anti-Cole bias – I think he’s arguably the worst of their 8 starters).
The bullpen’s not really scaring anyone, and the starters with upside have durability concerns – there are a few pitching staffs I’d take over Houston’s, like those of the Yankees, Dodgers, Nats, and Cubs.
All that said, this is still a great team, with a very deep rotation. I don’t think the rotation as a whole will be spectacular, but with their offense, it shouldn’t matter that much.
Happy to discuss particulars with any downvoters!
agreed….tons of downside, no upside. still think they lead the al west, but might only be a game or two ahead of the angels. Lunhow knows this, thats why he went and got cole which i think is pretty much the same as fiers who went to the tigers.
When you’re #1 in every projected category, I would say you have a lot more room to fall than to go up.
It’s like saying a job candidate’s biggest weakness is he works too hard. You’ve got to work pretty hard to say something negative about this team.
i think they are going to lose about 8-10 wins off of expectations. Bregman way over performed his ability. he’ll end up a 1-2 war guy.
B Mccann is year older, his 34-35 yr old catching age will play factor this year more than most think due to him not being in best of shape. he’ll be a 1-2 war guy. Same with Gattis and Reddick.
Really 90% of the offense is Altuve , Correa, and Springer. Question is can those 3 match performance from last year?
Verlander is 36, Gurriel is 33-34. I also don’t see keuchel or mcullers staying healthy.
I don’t see them beating the yankees. It’s very feasible they miss expectations by 10 wins. Pretty easy to get there actually. I think they end up 93 wins or so and finish 1st 3 games ahead of the angels.
I think they think this as well hence the reason to go get cole.
Your point about some of the older guys is quite valid, but your assessment of Bregman is way off I think. Former #2 pick in the draft, former #1 prospect in baseball before he was called up, will only be 24 this season. As a 22-23 year old, had an OPS over .800, and that includes two elongated periods of poor performance before he turned it on. Look up his numbers the second half of last season (141 WRC+), I think that is more like the player he will be this season.
Bregman is a beast. When a guy is 23 and puts up 3.8 WAR in a season while *struggling*, that gives you an indication of how much talent he has.
I don’t think he’ll ever be as good as Correa but that’s a pretty high bar.
What am I missing? When I click on the projected standings it shows 2017 records, and then it shows 2018 with the Yankees projected to win 105 games and the Astros projected for 92
Edit: Ok so now it is fixed to accurately represent the information presented in the article
Even lower down on the page when it displays the projections by division, it still shows 2017 records for “2018 year to date”, and then other projections that match nothing that you spoke of in the article. The 101 win projection looks like just a duplicate of last season…unless everyone is projected for the exact same record.
Anyone else not a fan of “literally” being used at least once in every article you read these days?
Even my favorite sports writers use it like they’re LITERALLY required to sneak it into every article.
For the love of god stop the madness.
There are 13 fangraphs articles on the front page including one instagraphs.
Literally only one of them used the word “literally”.
Madness is a massive exaggeration.
Not that this is guaranteed to apply to the Astros, but doesn’t the data regarding World Series participants’ records in the following season somewhat support the narrative of the “World Series hangover”? Winners underperform projections while the runner-up outperforms projections….to me (even as someone who typically hates sports-talk-radio-type narratives) this suggests that fatigue has nothing to do with it at all, and its simply a case of the runner-up being hungrier for success after falling just short, while the champion rests on their laurels. Again, not a fan of BS cliches, but this one seems to have the data to support it…might be something to look out for this year from the Dodgers and Astros
It’s probably just Neifi Perez sitting at his computer coming up with his own predictions.
I want to see the DEIVI projections just to see how they stack up. I could never tell a Neifi Perez from a Deivi Cruz back in the day…
The depth of this team is astonishing, and to me is what makes these lofty expectations very reasonable. Many days the Astros won’t even need Marwyn Gonzalez in the lineup–what?! Marisnik and Fischer are very capable (if flawed) players, and they will hardly see the light of day. Reed, Tucker, Whitley, and Paulino could probably approximate league-average production for a short period if called upon, and they’re not even WITH the team to start. And there are two guys in the bullpen (Peacock and McHugh) that would be starting for nearly anyone else.
Each year we pick a team to be special, but to my eye, THIS is a VERY special team, not just because of the stars (which are plentiful), but because the back-ups would all be starting for most teams.