Updating Verlander’s Chance at 25 Wins
At the end of August, amid the beginnings of Justin Verlander’s entry into MVP discussions, I investigated his chances at winning 25 games this season, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since Bob Welch did it for the 1990 Athletics. Using two methods, I came to the conclusion that Verlander had anywhere from a 5.7% chance to a 29% chance of winning 25 games (although our best estimates likely come on the lower end of the spectrum), assuming he would start five games between August 29th and the end of the season (which looks like it’ll be the reality). Now, Verlander is a 22-game winner, earning victories in his past two starts despite allowing four earned runs in Wednesday’s victory over Cleveland.
A reminder of the first estimate, the absolute upper bound on his chances:
For our first estimate, let’s use something relatively simple. So far, Verlander has 22-5 win-loss record in 31 starts. Verlander has a “start win percentage” of .709, as he’s won 22 of his 31 starts this year.
Using this extremely simple method, Verlander would have a remarkable 36% chance at winning 25 games this year, up from 29% two starts ago.
Now, for the more meaningful method:
The method is based on the Marcel projections featured here — so simple a monkey could do it, as long as he had a working understanding of the SQL programming language.
For a Marcel-type projection, we weight the past three years on a 5-4-3 basis (most recent gets 5, then 4, then 3), and add in two seasons (68 starts) of an average pitcher. Remember, we’re concerned with start winning percentage here, not decision winning percentage. Of the 1,854 games started in the American League this year, 678 of them have been wins. That’s a start winning percentage of only .366 for the American League. That number goes with a .690 start win percentage this year in 29 starts, .545 in 2010 in 33 starts, and .543 in 2011 in 35 starts.
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Using this method, we get a winning percentage of .570, slightly up from our .564 from earlier. Using this number, we arrive at an 18% chance of winning 25 games.
Given the fact that this year’s Tigers squad is a bit better than the teams he’s played for lately, we can probably elevate that number a bit. What we really want here is a range of probabilities, and given this data, I would feel pretty comfortable assigning a probability of 15%-25% for Verlander’s probabilities of winning 25 games.
Even in this brave new world of very few exciting postseason races, at least we’ll have something to watch for as Verlander approaches a milestone untouched since 1990.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Zero postseason races? The Angels are 2.5 back (2 in the loss column) and finishing up the season with 3 games against TX in Anaheim. How is this not a race?
Yeah, that was in a draft but didn’t get changed because I’ve been having internet problems…
I did my own fact-checking, and yes, it should’ve been changed in the original post.
verlander has 000 chance at 25. just like how colorado has 000 chance
“buster posey injury opens door for colorado in NL WEST” by jack moore
How much are your Jack Moore hats?
too expensive for you apparently
Looks like someone’s fact-checking cuz updated the article from “zero postseason races” to “very few exciting postseason races.” I’ll buy that
Call me sir god damn it.
I put my chances at 95%.
Even when I pitch bad I win.
Baseball is so easy!
I bet I flirt with a no-hitter next game, because I usually do!
Don’t worry about it, Mr. Verlander. 25 wins is arbitrary. You’re already in very impressive territory if you reach 23. You’d be the first to do that in 9 years. Since 1990, only 5 pitchers have done it.
Not with that foul mouth you won’t!
Hey, I sent you some Doyle Alexander tapes about pitching in the post season after winning a lot in the regular season.
How many games is this model thinking he will start in? It looks like he’s only lined up for 3 more starts with a possible 4th in the final series if needed only. With the recent sweeps of the Indians and White Sox, it is unlikely he gets that start so he basically only has 3 starts left and would have to win all three.
And knowing Leyland, he’ll rest him more than that.
Maybe not. Leyland knows that Verlander hates having any rest longer than the usual 4-5 days.
It’s only assuming three starts remaining.
You’re right Colin. JV will only get 3 more starts (as of this moment, 9/14/11, he won his last game and is 23-5. He must win his last two starts, or pick up an extra start somewhere to get a chance at 25 wins. Since the Tigers are on such a roll and will likely clinch their division within a day or two, it’s not likely Verlander will pick up extra starts. The Tigers will probably rest him for the start of the playoffs.
Also, is the model taking into account opposition strength? Projecting out, it looks like Verlander’s 3 starts are likely to come against the White Socks, As and Orioles, all three teams in the AL’s bottom-5 offenses; of course Anything Can Happen, but that seems like it should tangibly shift his chances too.
He gave up 4 vs the Twins in 6 innings, terrible offensive players might have his number.
Shelly Duncan had his number. That’s for sure. As long as Duncan doesn’t get somehow traded to one of the three remaining opponents, JV has been living the charmed life.
4 runs on 5 baserunners, not exactly a Burnettian performance.
Yeah, 3 BB, 8 H, 4 R in 6 IP, including giving up a home run to a first time long baller is not a stelar outing. But he got a W because the Twins have terrible pitchers as well as batters this year.
Or, if he’s about to fall short, just put him in with 2 outs late in a tie game and hope you score the next half inning.
this is how the nats used tyler clippard in april 2010
Anyone else notice that the advanced stats say that Bob Welch’s 27-6 season was a fluke of historical proportions? Only a 1.8 WAR, and a FIP 12% worse than league average.
Interesting.
That’s certainly been noticed, yes.
Bob Welch received insanely good run support that season. Roger Clemens was a much better pitcher that year and deserved to win the Cy Young but those 27 wins were impossible to ignore.
A few years before that (1987), Nolan Ryan led the NL in ERA and strikeouts but went 8-16. He should’ve won the Cy Young in the NL; instead, they bizarrely gave it to Steve Bedrosian, who was a closer for a really bad Phillies team. Andre Dawson won the MVP for a really bad Cubs team. Voters were apparently not buying the “Award winners must play for really good teams” argument back then but were still pretty unsophisticated about W-L record and saves totals.
“bizarrely gave it to Steve Bedrosian.” He had 40 saves that year!
Holy shit, Clemens was more than a full run better in ERA, 82 more strikeouts, 23 fewer walks, less than 1/3 the home runs, twice as many shutouts, five more complete games…not even close.
Even Dave Stewart, Welch’s teammate, was clearly the better pitcher – better rate stats all around (really – runs, walks, homers, strikeouts, hits, everything), plus he pitched 29 more innings, and 11 complete games against 2.
Welch had a 2.78 FIP and a 7-13 record in 1986 with the Dodgers so it just goes to prove that it works both ways. Of course that year also coincided with Mike Scott’s best season (2.16 FIP) so Welch wasn’t in line to win a CY young anyway, but the point is that in 1990 he was just receiving some payback on the luck dividend.
Saves?
Joe Borowski had 45 saves in 2007, with an ERA north of 5 and FIP of 4.21.
This is incredibly shitty. Even for fangraphs.
This is a dickish and yet accurate comment. Someone needed to reach a quota.
I feel that the incessant nutriding by mouth breathing sycophants (no one in particular) reduces the quality of the website. Fangraphs is now basically a B-Red with a terribad blog written by arrogant yet stupid baseball “analysts”.
NB: I do not read Carson’s articles, though I did read his fan tribute site on wikipedia and that creepy snippet he wrote about raping a barista.
Thank you for this helpful remark.
Okay. Here is a hint. Analyze the three fucking potential starts instead of this fucking retardation.
Except FG has a skullfucked WPA (lol 50/50) system…. How would they even begin to do any Bayesian forecasting.
lol freqentards(new buzzword)
instead of all that fancy calculations
why not just look at his scheduled opponents (assuming he keeps his schedule)
it’s @chw, @oak, bal, cle.
and then find out what the vegas odds for him winning 3 of 4 are.
btw you need to add the fact that his remaining schedule are against weaker teams. if you use his overall winning percentage it’s meaningless because it includes his matchups against stronger teams.
fellow baseball nerds….relax. 25 W’s for JV is likely, even if he only goes 6 innings in his last three starts. this article is backed up by data. what everyone seems to forget when they claim JV will go back to his 2010 numbers next year is that the Tigers are a far better team in 2011 than they were in 2010 and could actually be better in 2012 if they fill their 2B, 3B, and LF needs with better defenders.
vamos tigres!
I agree, this analyis is subpar, especially in comparison my vast pitching skills.
But then again, it’s really not reasonable to compare anything to my skills.
Your’s very truly,
J
Go back to your basement. Your mother is looking for you.
Jack Moore writes: “…so simple a monkey could do it, as long as he had a working understanding of the SQL programming language.”
Is SQL knowledge the ONLY way to get this projection?
I would think that someone with a relatively good command of creating macro formulae in Excel could also do this.
Can anybody shed any light on this?
Just think he was trying to say it’s complex.
Jack Moore didn’t write that. Tango Tiger did.
Carter, I find that insulting.
I, Justin Verlander, do not live in my mom’s basement.
I am my own man.
I stay up as late as I wish, even when pitching the next morning.
I also like to sleep in when I can. Would I be able to do that under my mother’s watchful eye?
I don’t think so.
Find a new place to play and leave this site to real baseball fans.
How do you think I pitch so well?
I garner most of my advantage from reading this site and exploiting hitters from the various articles and stats database.
I may not be a fan, but as a player, and an American citizen, I, Justin Verlander, have the God given right to post on this site.
BTW, can I vent please?
My lord Brandon Inge is a terrible ballplayer.
Yours very truly,
J
Sad waste of your time. Get a life.
Again, I do have a life.
I am insanely popular.
I have like a thousand wins this year.
Sorry if that doesn’t stand up to your insanely high time required to reply to my “waste of time” posts. You are clearly allocating your time to the correct activities.
J
Hola Justin! Usted debe ganar por su 23 victorias!
As a Tiger’s fan, an anecdotal observation I made on a limited number of games was that Verlander was a dominant pitcher except that he would get in trouble in the first inning frequently and then motor through the rest of the game. Is there any truth to this? And has the story been different this year?
I limited snorting coke to 5 hours before a game.
Before it was 2-3 and still had the effects in the early going.
Now it’s just pure J from start to finish.