Using Pitch Speed to Tweak Hard-Hit Rate

On May 17, Chicago White Sox legend Yermín Mercedes hit the sixth home run of his stellar, albeit wilting, nevertheless unlikely, rookie campaign. A mammoth blast over the center field wall of Target Field, the home run sparked — in equal parts, seemingly — awe and controversy.

The controversy? Mercedes teed off on a 3-0 count with one out to spare in a 15-4 blowout, off a beloved Position Player PitchingTM no less. He did so in the home park of a sputtering rival, one expected to compete for their division’s title but, at the time, had instead won half as many games (13) as it had lost (26). Naturally, a lengthy and unpleasant discourse about the game’s unwritten rules ensued. Retribution, however juvenile, was had.

At the time, the sheer amount of baggage on the home run did not register with me. My brain is so moldy and soggy that I reacted somewhat primitively. Good lord, Yermín Mercedes absolutely mashed possibly the slowest pitch I’ve ever seen.

Indeed, Mercedes’ home run is the hardest-hit batted ball (109.3 mph) against a pitch 60 mph or slower (47.1 mph) in the Statcast era. Only Christian Walker (seen here) and Ryan McMahon (seen here) come close, and their batted balls came against pitches thrown more than 53 mph. That’s, like, light speed in comparison.

The rarefied (if somewhat stupid) air Mercedes’ home run breathes suggests it might be exceptionally difficult to generate such a high exit velocity (EV) against such a slow pitch. It reminded me of some ingenious work done by Connor Kurcon (now of the Houston Astros’ R&D team) that centered on the idea of a dynamic hard-hit rate (DHH%). Inspired by a quintessential Joey Gallo pop-up — 107.2 mph off the bat at a steep 63 degrees — Kurcon asked a leading question: Would you consider this ball hit hard?

What Kurcon found — a finding that I would argue meshes well with our intuition about and understanding of the game of baseball — is that not all hard hits are created equal. Launch angle context is important, of course — optimal lanuch angles are necessary for hitters to be productive — but maybe just not in all the ways one might expect.

Gallo, specifically, was quite fortunate; a 63 degree pop-up is an automatic out the other 99 times out of 100, no matter how hard it’s hit. It is a decidedly abysmal launch angle. But it is exceedingly difficult to do what Gallo did, to generate such massive power at such a suboptimal angle. Few other human beings can do what he did, even if it was demonstrably bad! If we knew nothing else about Gallo, ignorant of his prospect pedigree and possibly unaware of how obscenely large he is, his pop-up would communicate a significant amount of information about his power, much more than the grotesqueness of the batted ball and its ensuing fielding misfortunes would let on.

Thus, Kurcon proposed a hard-hit rate that relies on an EV threshold that changes dynamically with launch angle. This runs contrary to Statcast’s hard-hit rate (HardHit%), which employs a static EV threshold of 95 mph. Kurcon found that this particular formulation of hard-hit rate, which he called Dynamic Hard-Hit Rate (DHH%), was both more predictive of hitter production (per weighted on-base average on contact, or wOBAcon) and stickier year-to-year than HardHit%.

This premise, of a dynamic threshold to define hard hits, is relevant to contexts beyond launch angle like, say, pitch speed! A pitcher’s influence on EV is relatively small; pitch speed plays a small role, but most of the influence on EV lies in the hands of the hitter. Still, it stands to reason it takes a tremendous amount of strength to hit a little league pitch nearly 430 feet.

Statcast data can help validate or invalidate that hunch. The figure below shows 75th-percentile EV at most pitch speeds (rounded to the nearest tenth of a mph). Note how EV decays as pitch speed declines:

(My choice of 75th percentile is somewhat arbitrary, frankly. The shape of this curve looks nearly identical at, say, 90th-percentile EV as well.)

The line of best fit (r² = 0.89) tails off ominously on pitch speeds lower than roughly 75 mph in such a way that it may not be a particularly helpful benchmark for extremely slow pitches, like the Willians Astudillo eephus that Mercedes slugged. Ultimately, we don’t have enough data to reach sound conclusions for ultra-slow pitches. Maybe at a certain, uh, slowness, the line curves back up and it becomes easier to generate additional exit velocity. It’s just unclear to me where that inflection point might be. I think this leaves our original question unanswered, although I am biased and would argue that, yes, what Mercedes accomplished is actually very interesting to mushy-brained people like me.

Despite these unknowns, we can at least use the line of best fit drawn above as the basis for a DHH% based on pitch speed (“Pitch DHH%”) for pitches with normal velocities. Like Kurcon’s original version based on launch angle, Pitch DHH% is slightly more descriptive (same-year) and predictive (next-year) of wOBAcon than HardHit% — I think a pessimist could argue it is negligibly superior. But, as a measure of skill, it is significantly stickier year to year.

R² (Coefficient of Determination)
Metric wOBAcon (y0) wOBAcon (y1) Itself (y1)
DHH%: Pitch Speed 0.473 0.344 0.754
HardHit% 0.457 0.328 0.674
wOBAcon 1.000 0.387 0.387
0 = no relationship; 1 = perfect relationship
y0 = current year; y1 = next year

Min. 250 batted ball events (BBE) in y0 and y1

You’ll notice that, for predicting wOBAcon, Pitch DHH% is less powerful than wOBAcon itself, which might make you wonder why we would rely on anything else in the first place. In fairness, wOBAcon reflects outcomes determined by countless inputs that affect every batted ball event. HardHit% and (Pitch) DHH%, on the other hand, rely only on a couple of contact quality inputs. That we can explain so much with so little should maybe be considered a feat in and of itself.

So how does the original DHH% better predict wOBAcon than wOBAcon itself, whereas Pitch DHH% doesn’t? It ignores all hard hits shallower than zero degrees (i.e., all groundballs). Without this threshold, the original DHH% resembles Pitch DHH%, somewhere above HardHit% but below wOBAcon for predictive purposes.

R² (Coefficient of Determination)
Metric wOBAcon (y0) wOBAcon (y1) Itself (y1)
DHH%: Pitch Speed 0.473 0.344 0.754
HardHit% 0.457 0.328 0.674
wOBAcon 1.000 0.387 0.387
DHH%: Original 0.554 0.416 0.788
DHH%: Original (No 0°) 0.436 0.355 0.821
0 = no relationship; 1 = perfect relationship
y0 = current year; y1 = next year

Min. 250 batted ball events in y0 and y1

This is by no means an indictment of DHH%; if anything, it’s a testament to Kurcon’s ingenuity to elevate a metric from interesting to indispensible. Unfortunately, there is no such threshold I can think to implement for pitch speed that might yield a similar predictive edge. We know groundballs are predominantly outs and singles — maybe one in 40 go for extra bases. Any hitter can do any amount of damage on any pitch speed, though — Mercedes proved as much! — which makes the idea of enforcing a velocity-based cutoff dubious.

Still, that does not make this version of DHH% useless. We can leverage it to identify hitters that HardHit% over- and under-rates. Take, for example, Max Muncy, about whom much ink has been spilled on these digital pages. Among 170 hitters with at least 120 batted ball events (BBE) through June 13, Muncy’s hard-hit rate improves from the 52nd percentile of HardHit% to the 82nd percentile of Pitch DHH%.

The green line depicts our new dynamic threshold, while the black line depicts the classic fixed threshold of 95 mph. Muncy boasts very few batted balls between the two thresholds; as such, Pitch DHH% gives him more credit for generating higher EVs on faster pitches, which hitters should generally be expected to do. Conversely, Pitch DHH% punishes Andrew Benintendi third-most of any hitter, with his hard-hit rate declining from the 56th percentile (HardHit%) to the 18th (Pitch DHH%) after accounting for pitch speed. Benintendi lives between the thresholds, with many of his BBE exceeding the 95 mph threshold but relatively few exceeding our new dynamic threshold.

It comes as no surprise to me, then, that Muncy’s Statcast profile (below left) bleeds red like his Pitch DHH% (and unlike his HardHit%), while Benintendi’s HardHit% seems to overstate his quality of contact in a way that Pitch DHH% keeps firmly in check.

(Topically, our little king Mercedes ranks 21st of 170 in hard-hit rate improvement! Unfortunately, going from the eight-percentile HardHit% to the 23rd-percentile Pitch DHH% seems hardly like cause for celebration.)

Of course, some hitters aren’t so nuanced. There’s something oddly comforting about Pitch DHH% declining to make wholesale changes to Giancarlo Stanton (100th percentile before and after) or Aaron Judge (99th percentile) or even David Fletcher (0th percentile). Certain types of hitters — the Vladimir Guerrero Jrs., but also the Nicky Lopezes; the Ronald Acuña Jrs., but also the Myles Straws — will not see their needles move much or at all when transitioning from a fixed threshold to a dynamic one.

But for everyone else, Pitch DHH% might have more insight to offer — like, for example, by further validating Anthony Rendon‘s poor performance (18th-percentile Pitch DHH%, down from 52nd-percentile HardHit%). Or “predicting” Jonathan Schoop’s recent heater (57th percentile, up from 43rd). Or possibly serving as a leading indicator to an eventual cool-down from Buster Posey (36th percentile, down from 78th), whose outstanding outcomes seem to defy many of the peripherals that underpin them.

The table below provides side-by-side comparisons of HardHit% and Pitch DHH% for all 282 hitters with at least 75 BBE through June 14 (the table is sortable). Maybe Pitch DHH% better explains your favorite player’s production (or lack thereof) to date. Who can say? Not me. But I do suspect, with mathematical validation and the humility of knowing this suspicion is far from revelatory, that approaching hard-hit rates with additional context and nuance improves our ability to describe and diagnose (and, ideally, better appreciate) hitter performance.

Hard-Hit Percentiles (Min. 75 BBE)
Rank Hitter Name BBE HardHit% DHH%: Pitch Speed ∆ Percentile
1 Aaron Judge 156 0.99 1.00 0.00
2 Giancarlo Stanton 116 1.00 1.00 0.00
3 Franmil Reyes 97 0.94 0.99 +0.05
4 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 184 0.98 0.99 +0.01
5 Evan Longoria 119 1.00 0.99 -0.01
6 Tyler O’Neill 103 0.93 0.98 +0.05
7 Fernando Tatis Jr. 125 0.95 0.98 +0.03
8 Ronald Acuña Jr. 162 0.99 0.98 -0.01
9 Nelson Cruz 152 0.96 0.97 +0.01
10 Shohei Ohtani 143 0.98 0.97 -0.01
11 Mike Trout 76 0.93 0.96 +0.03
12 Manny Machado 174 0.96 0.96 0.00
13 Salvador Perez 185 0.97 0.96 -0.01
14 Rafael Devers 170 0.97 0.95 -0.01
15 Juan Soto 144 0.98 0.95 -0.03
16 Yasmani Grandal 81 0.99 0.95 -0.04
17 Teoscar Hernández 133 0.91 0.94 +0.03
18 Harold Ramirez 100 0.94 0.94 0.00
19 Joc Pederson 127 0.95 0.94 -0.01
20 Brad Miller 77 0.82 0.93 +0.11
21 Andrew Vaughn 117 0.94 0.93 0.00
22 Josh Bell 124 0.95 0.93 -0.03
23 José Ramírez 192 0.88 0.92 +0.05
24 Rowdy Tellez 101 0.89 0.92 +0.03
25 José Abreu 165 0.92 0.92 0.00
26 Bo Bichette 193 0.92 0.91 -0.01
27 Jesse Winker 178 0.96 0.91 -0.05
28 Justin Upton 131 0.83 0.90 +0.07
29 Avisaíl García 147 0.85 0.90 +0.06
30 Jorge Soler 133 0.90 0.90 0.00
31 Ryan Zimmerman 81 0.74 0.89 +0.16
32 Josh Donaldson 148 0.88 0.89 +0.01
33 Freddie Freeman 184 0.91 0.89 -0.02
34 Trent Grisham 98 0.71 0.88 +0.16
35 Phillip Evans 98 0.88 0.88 +0.01
36 Matt Olson 179 0.89 0.88 -0.01
37 Max Kepler 106 0.80 0.87 +0.07
38 Pete Alonso 129 0.83 0.87 +0.04
39 Alex Kirilloff 88 0.88 0.86 -0.01
40 Garrett Cooper 113 0.88 0.86 -0.02
41 Paul Goldschmidt 182 0.93 0.86 -0.07
42 Miguel Cabrera 129 0.77 0.85 +0.09
43 J.D. Martinez 176 0.76 0.85 +0.09
44 Adam Duvall 134 0.83 0.85 +0.02
45 Trey Mancini 178 0.68 0.84 +0.16
46 Victor Caratini 93 0.71 0.84 +0.13
47 Nick Castellanos 183 0.90 0.84 -0.06
48 Max Muncy 143 0.55 0.83 +0.27
49 Hunter Dozier 113 0.75 0.83 +0.08
50 Yordan Alvarez 146 0.78 0.83 +0.05
51 Clint Frazier 106 0.40 0.82 +0.42
52 Adolis García 152 0.85 0.82 -0.03
53 Yoán Moncada 145 0.70 0.81 +0.11
54 Daniel Vogelbach 104 0.80 0.81 +0.01
55 Ketel Marte 87 0.86 0.81 -0.05
56 Randy Arozarena 166 0.72 0.80 +0.08
57 Aledmys Díaz 96 0.81 0.80 -0.01
58 Ryan McMahon 176 0.84 0.80 -0.04
59 Rougned Odor 91 0.56 0.79 +0.23
60 J.T. Realmuto 111 0.75 0.79 +0.04
61 Kelvin Gutierrez 77 0.76 0.79 +0.03
62 Wilson Ramos 91 0.70 0.78 +0.09
63 Gary Sánchez 103 0.73 0.78 +0.04
64 Randal Grichuk 188 0.79 0.78 -0.01
65 Jared Walsh 158 0.56 0.77 +0.21
66 Tyler Naquin 133 0.78 0.77 -0.01
67 Brandon Belt 82 0.77 0.77 -0.01
68 Tom Murphy 75 0.52 0.76 +0.24
69 Joey Gallo 124 0.54 0.76 +0.21
70 Bobby Dalbec 107 0.63 0.76 +0.13
71 Ramón Laureano 129 0.74 0.76 +0.02
72 James McCann 111 0.84 0.76 -0.08
73 Alec Bohm 163 0.85 0.76 -0.10
74 Kyle Tucker 199 0.88 0.76 -0.12
75 Ian Happ 114 0.91 0.76 -0.16
76 Hunter Renfroe 146 0.56 0.73 +0.17
77 Miguel Sanó 99 0.79 0.73 -0.06
78 Eric Hosmer 182 0.86 0.73 -0.13
79 Manuel Margot 177 0.59 0.72 +0.12
80 Trea Turner 198 0.66 0.72 +0.06
81 Kyle Schwarber 133 0.89 0.72 -0.18
82 Willie Calhoun 149 0.67 0.71 +0.04
83 Joey Votto 96 0.84 0.71 -0.13
84 Juan Lagares 81 0.43 0.70 +0.26
85 Mitch Haniger 190 0.67 0.70 +0.04
86 Jed Lowrie 168 0.79 0.70 -0.09
87 Bryce Harper 110 0.50 0.69 +0.19
88 Charlie Blackmon 170 0.61 0.69 +0.08
89 Taylor Ward 80 0.60 0.69 +0.08
90 Tim Anderson 159 0.60 0.68 +0.08
91 Odúbel Herrera 122 0.65 0.68 +0.03
92 Corey Seager 118 0.90 0.68 -0.22
93 Willson Contreras 132 0.58 0.67 +0.09
94 David Bote 110 0.74 0.67 -0.07
95 A.J. Pollock 93 0.80 0.67 -0.14
96 Gregory Polanco 120 0.72 0.66 -0.06
97 Tommy Pham 138 0.81 0.66 -0.15
98 Chris Taylor 142 0.53 0.65 +0.12
99 Carlos Correa 193 0.70 0.65 -0.05
100 Nathaniel Lowe 165 0.69 0.65 -0.05
101 Michael Brantley 166 0.77 0.65 -0.12
102 Anthony Rizzo 179 0.57 0.64 +0.07
103 Miguel Andujar 81 0.59 0.64 +0.05
104 Austin Riley 144 0.57 0.63 +0.06
105 Francisco Lindor 173 0.68 0.63 -0.05
106 Gio Urshela 159 0.69 0.63 -0.06
107 Travis Shaw 129 0.42 0.62 +0.20
108 Starling Marte 86 0.46 0.62 +0.16
109 Rhys Hoskins 168 0.69 0.62 -0.07
110 Jason Heyward 107 0.60 0.61 +0.01
111 Anthony Santander 107 0.72 0.61 -0.10
112 Carlos Santana 185 0.64 0.60 -0.04
113 Javier Báez 129 0.65 0.60 -0.05
114 Justin Turner 177 0.82 0.60 -0.21
115 Elias Díaz 78 0.19 0.59 +0.40
116 Yandy Díaz 169 0.38 0.59 +0.21
117 Brandon Crawford 134 0.73 0.59 -0.14
118 C.J. Cron 109 0.25 0.58 +0.33
119 Michael A. Taylor 118 0.44 0.58 +0.14
120 Paul DeJong 98 0.34 0.57 +0.23
121 Jonathan Schoop 176 0.43 0.57 +0.14
122 Jean Segura 153 0.48 0.57 +0.09
123 Austin Slater 86 0.54 0.57 +0.02
124 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 102 0.42 0.56 +0.13
125 Sean Murphy 124 0.63 0.56 -0.07
126 Jorge Polanco 180 0.45 0.55 +0.10
127 Nomar Mazara 81 0.68 0.55 -0.13
128 David Peralta 177 0.38 0.54 +0.16
129 Marcell Ozuna 142 0.51 0.54 +0.04
130 Yuli Gurriel 202 0.65 0.54 -0.11
131 Pedro Severino 110 0.13 0.53 +0.41
132 Michael Conforto 86 0.20 0.53 +0.33
133 Kyle Lewis 93 0.33 0.53 +0.20
134 Lorenzo Cain 79 0.47 0.52 +0.05
135 Xander Bogaerts 183 0.55 0.52 -0.03
136 DJ LeMahieu 201 0.67 0.52 -0.15
137 Bryan Reynolds 165 0.37 0.51 +0.14
138 Stephen Piscotty 95 0.49 0.51 +0.01
139 Pavin Smith 191 0.81 0.51 -0.30
140 Mitch Moreland 99 0.61 0.50 -0.11
141 Jackie Bradley Jr. 126 0.64 0.50 -0.14
142 Jonathan Villar 113 0.17 0.49 +0.32
143 Adam Eaton 124 0.46 0.49 +0.04
144 Jesús Aguilar 185 0.54 0.49 -0.05
145 Mark Canha 175 0.51 0.48 -0.03
146 Jose Altuve 190 0.62 0.48 -0.14
147 Marcus Semien 190 0.63 0.48 -0.15
148 Ty France 165 0.27 0.47 +0.20
149 Will Smith 135 0.62 0.47 -0.15
150 Willy Adames 135 0.75 0.47 -0.27
151 Erik González 156 0.11 0.46 +0.35
152 Christian Arroyo 80 0.13 0.46 +0.33
153 Yadier Molina 128 0.32 0.46 +0.14
154 Mike Brosseau 78 0.23 0.45 +0.21
155 Nick Solak 173 0.39 0.45 +0.06
156 Jeimer Candelario 155 0.43 0.45 +0.02
157 Marwin Gonzalez 129 0.41 0.44 +0.02
158 Josh Naylor 156 0.47 0.44 -0.02
159 Jake Bauers 85 0.64 0.44 -0.21
160 Brandon Lowe 141 0.29 0.43 +0.14
161 Ryan Mountcastle 149 0.49 0.43 -0.06
162 Seth Brown 96 0.23 0.42 +0.20
163 Austin Hays 102 0.30 0.42 +0.12
164 Starlin Castro 182 0.32 0.42 +0.09
165 Dylan Moore 83 0.14 0.41 +0.28
166 Luis Urías 134 0.49 0.41 -0.09
167 Dansby Swanson 166 0.62 0.41 -0.21
168 Guillermo Heredia 75 0.26 0.40 +0.14
169 Colin Moran 88 0.28 0.40 +0.11
170 Kolten Wong 135 0.31 0.40 +0.09
171 Aaron Hicks 80 0.40 0.39 -0.01
172 Cesar Hernandez 182 0.41 0.39 -0.02
173 Josh Rojas 144 0.47 0.39 -0.08
174 Jose Rojas 86 0.58 0.39 -0.20
175 Alex Verdugo 197 0.48 0.38 -0.10
176 Gavin Lux 145 0.31 0.37 +0.07
177 Christian Walker 89 0.36 0.37 +0.01
178 Mike Yastrzemski 120 0.58 0.37 -0.21
179 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 169 0.37 0.36 -0.02
180 Alex Dickerson 102 0.46 0.36 -0.10
181 Buster Posey 130 0.78 0.36 -0.42
182 Corey Dickerson 160 0.11 0.35 +0.24
183 Eugenio Suárez 160 0.15 0.35 +0.20
184 Austin Meadows 161 0.51 0.35 -0.16
185 Cavan Biggio 94 0.21 0.34 +0.12
186 Cedric Mullins 194 0.48 0.34 -0.14
187 Jacob Stallings 125 0.18 0.33 +0.15
188 Trevor Story 147 0.25 0.33 +0.09
189 Nick Senzel 96 0.44 0.33 -0.11
190 Jeff McNeil 90 0.32 0.32 0.00
191 Miguel Rojas 143 0.34 0.32 -0.02
192 Kyle Seager 185 0.73 0.32 -0.41
193 Tyler Stephenson 102 0.27 0.31 +0.04
194 Kris Bryant 166 0.44 0.31 -0.14
195 Albert Pujols 123 0.52 0.31 -0.21
196 Ozzie Albies 193 0.27 0.30 +0.02
197 Wil Myers 126 0.35 0.30 -0.05
198 Andrew McCutchen 150 0.36 0.30 -0.06
199 Asdrúbal Cabrera 100 0.18 0.29 +0.11
200 Carson Kelly 104 0.29 0.29 0.00
201 Willi Castro 133 0.06 0.28 +0.22
202 Jonathan India 126 0.22 0.28 +0.07
203 Brett Gardner 104 0.25 0.28 +0.03
204 Billy McKinney 101 0.53 0.28 -0.26
205 Nolan Arenado 213 0.35 0.27 -0.08
206 Mookie Betts 179 0.42 0.27 -0.15
207 Enrique Hernández 146 0.30 0.26 -0.04
208 Jon Berti 113 0.50 0.26 -0.23
209 Amed Rosario 154 0.53 0.26 -0.27
210 Yermín Mercedes 174 0.09 0.25 +0.17
211 Brian Anderson 88 0.39 0.25 -0.15
212 Niko Goodrum 106 0.57 0.25 -0.32
213 Willians Astudillo 108 0.12 0.24 +0.11
214 Dominic Smith 139 0.26 0.24 -0.02
215 Akil Baddoo 77 0.19 0.23 +0.04
216 Matt Beaty 80 0.21 0.23 +0.02
217 Matt Chapman 146 0.30 0.23 -0.07
218 Mauricio Dubón 103 0.16 0.22 +0.06
219 Alex Bregman 185 0.32 0.22 -0.10
220 Jose Trevino 111 0.38 0.22 -0.16
221 Maikel Franco 197 0.07 0.21 +0.14
222 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 김하성 111 0.15 0.21 +0.06
223 Eduardo Escobar 194 0.22 0.21 -0.01
224 DJ Stewart 98 0.10 0.20 +0.10
225 Gleyber Torres 166 0.19 0.20 +0.01
226 Raimel Tapia 206 0.22 0.20 -0.03
227 Tommy Edman 240 0.35 0.19 -0.16
228 Kevin Kiermaier 90 0.45 0.19 -0.26
229 Andrew Benintendi 176 0.59 0.19 -0.40
230 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 221 0.10 0.18 +0.08
231 Victor Robles 108 0.16 0.18 +0.02
232 David Dahl 106 0.36 0.18 -0.18
233 Anthony Rendon 140 0.52 0.18 -0.34
234 Dylan Carlson 167 0.24 0.17 -0.07
235 Freddy Galvis 159 0.12 0.16 +0.04
236 Yan Gomes 118 0.20 0.16 -0.04
237 Francisco Mejía 88 0.33 0.16 -0.18
238 Josh Fuentes 144 0.07 0.15 +0.08
239 Joey Wendle 150 0.17 0.15 -0.02
240 Christian Vázquez 157 0.28 0.15 -0.14
241 José Iglesias 162 0.08 0.14 +0.06
242 Elvis Andrus 171 0.26 0.14 -0.12
243 Danny Jansen 78 0.40 0.14 -0.25
244 Omar Narváez 113 0.08 0.13 +0.05
245 Eddie Rosario 183 0.21 0.13 -0.08
246 Charlie Culberson 95 0.06 0.12 +0.05
247 Jake Cronenworth 211 0.11 0.12 +0.01
248 Garrett Hampson 158 0.16 0.12 -0.04
249 Robbie Grossman 167 0.28 0.12 -0.16
250 Donovan Solano 95 0.12 0.11 -0.01
251 J.P. Crawford 187 0.16 0.11 -0.05
252 Kurt Suzuki 77 0.03 0.10 +0.07
253 Leury García 132 0.14 0.10 -0.04
254 Kyle Farmer 138 0.15 0.10 -0.05
255 Wilmer Flores 122 0.10 0.09 0.00
256 Josh Harrison 156 0.17 0.09 -0.08
257 Mike Tauchman 92 0.24 0.09 -0.15
258 Jurickson Profar 154 0.07 0.08 0.00
259 Harold Castro 88 0.66 0.08 -0.58
260 Didi Gregorius 95 0.04 0.07 +0.04
261 Nick Ahmed 132 0.06 0.07 +0.01
262 Kevin Pillar 90 0.41 0.07 -0.35
263 Kevin Newman 197 0.01 0.06 +0.05
264 Hanser Alberto 93 0.02 0.06 +0.04
265 Luis Arraez 125 0.37 0.06 -0.31
266 Joe Panik 84 0.04 0.05 +0.01
267 Martín Maldonado 106 0.09 0.05 -0.04
268 Ehire Adrianza 79 0.23 0.05 -0.19
269 Jose Peraza 78 0.05 0.04 0.00
270 Andrelton Simmons 136 0.05 0.04 -0.01
271 Whit Merrifield 222 0.09 0.04 -0.06
272 Adam Frazier 224 0.05 0.03 -0.02
273 Tucker Barnhart 102 0.21 0.03 -0.18
274 Nick Madrigal 184 0.02 0.02 0.00
275 Yonathan Daza 128 0.03 0.02 -0.01
276 Nicky Lopez 140 0.04 0.02 -0.02
277 Tim Locastro 80 0.00 0.01 +0.01
278 Eric Sogard 100 0.01 0.01 0.00
279 Myles Straw 165 0.02 0.01 -0.01
280 David Fletcher 215 0.00 0.00 0.00
281 Tony Kemp 92 0.01 0.00 -0.01
Rank according to “DHH%: Pitch Speed”

(Note that Muncy’s and Benintendi’s percentiles appear different in the table because the minimum threshold was lowered from 120 BBE to 75 BBE.)





Currently investigating the relationship between pitcher effectiveness and beard density. Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Previously featured in Lindy's Sports' Fantasy Baseball magazine (2018, 2019). Tout Wars competitor. Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.

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