Vegas and the Fans
Vegas odds principally aim to achieve equal bettor action on over/unders. That is, the oddsmakers set the lines so that they can best achieve a 50/50 split on the bets. Their general aim is then to predict what the average gambling public will think about the number of wins a given team will achieve.
The fan projections here at FanGraphs, converted into wins by David Appelman, measures much the same goal except that the input comes from what is most likely a more forward-thinking and baseball-educated crowd and appeals to the same people.
These similar goals presents a great comparison opportunity. Here are some of the more egregious differences between the Vegas oddsmakers and the FanGraphs readership with CHONE’s projections provided as well.
Arizona. Vegas: 82.5, Fans: 87 (CHONE: 79)
Baltimore. Vegas: 73.5, Fans: 78 (75)
Cubs. Vegas: 82.5, Fans: 78 (79)
Angels. Vegas: 84.5, Fans: 80 (81)
Athletics. Vegas: 77.5, Fans: 81 (81)
Phillies. Vegas: 92.5, Fans: 84 (87)
Padres. Vegas: 69.5, Fans: 79 (78)
The first five teams listed all had about a 4-win difference between the fans and Vegas with CHONE mostly siding with the fans, aside from Arizona, and waffling between the two on Baltimore. The bottom two represented the largest divergence between Vegas and FanGraphs readers and, again, CHONE mostly agrees with the fans.
Is there a common thread running through the five teams where the fans and CHONE offer different opinions than the Vegas oddsmakers? I would say the general public, and Vegas by extension, are too prone to be swayed by 2009 results. Hence, teams that were good Angels, Phillies) or bad (San Diego, Oakland) suffer from some residual effects. The Cubs are present I expect because of their large and devotedly optimistic fan base.
In the end, I would consider shorting the Phillies, Angels and Cubs and buying on the Padres and Athletics.
Hat tip to Jonah Keri for passing along the odds.
Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.
It’s difficult to get value on the over/unders, because you’re paying the vig, the float, and likely something to cash in the ticket.
I recommend instead betting on pennant wins. If you hit, you’re rich enough to make up for the rest. (I bet relatively low amounts on the A’s, Padres, and Orioles from the above list; I also bet a relatively low amount on the Reds. I bet non-low amounts on the Indians.)
–JRM
I think this article is based on some of the same misconceptions that Dave Cameron’s previous article on Vegas and the Twins was based on. Because others are clearly better authorities that I am, I will simply quote some of the comments from that thread:
“It surprises me people continue to erroneously believe Vegas is only after getting an equal amount of $ on each side of every bet (and often by smart people, which Dave Cameron certainly is), b/c this simply isn’t true.”
-Rotoscoop.com
“[Rotoscoop] has it right. The “equal amount of $ on each side” theory needs to go. It’s simply not true, 95% of the time.”
-Temo
“Careful out there, kids…..Rotoscoop nailed it.
Vegas will tweak a little for LA, NY and Texas teams but they’re almost entirely focused on the right number, not bettor sentiment. There’s plenty of unsentimental money that will destroy them if they’re trying to get Minnesota fans to bet as much as Detroit fans. (And they’re very good, I lost my Houston and Cincinnati O/u’s last year by a combined 1.5 cgames, which is common).
Also, if you only look at the O/U you are incorrectly assessing the bet. The money line to bet Over for Minnesota’s 82 wins could be -150, while Detroit’s 81 wins might get you +110. Tha is a very, very different bet than if both were -110.”
-Steve Balboni
“…2) It is true that Vegas no longer sets a line that anticipates public sentiment. There are too many smart bettors that would kill a line like that. It may be true that they used to do that, but not anymore. In some sense, you can say that they still do that, but that “public sentiment” includes the smart bettors. There are very few of these smart bettors, but they bet a crap-load of money compared to the general public.
3) They can’t really even out the money with futures bets to make sure that they win no matter what happens. For one reason, there are too many of these future bets (e.g. trying to get the same amount of money over and under on all 30 teams is simply not going to work). For another, for playoff bets, you can’t really do that. If a long shot team wins the WS or a pennant, the books will likely lose money. They take that risk.
4) As many people have mentioned above, can we stop with the fiction that the “Vegas Line” is 82 for the Twins? For example, at Olympic Sports Book the line is over 82 1/2 -125 and under 82 1/2 +105. So in order to break even, the Twins would have to win 83 games or more almost 56% of the time. On Sportsbook.com, the line for Minny is 84.5 -115 either way. So, there is essentially no 82 win over/under, at least not anymore.”
-MGL
While the odds definitely vary a lot from book to book, here are the current ones from TheGreek.com (one of the more respected internet books), adjusted for the juice (around 15 cents = 1/2 game):
ARI: 82.5
BAL: 74
Cubs: 83
Angels: 83.5
OAK: 78.5
PHI: 92.5
Padres: 71
a few things
1) some of these lines have moved, hence the -125 on the twins. that -125 was better not so long ago
2) you have to remember that 5 month bets are markedly inferior to short term bets, as that capital is tied up (now if you are a losing gambler/investor that could be good but then you shouldnt be gambling/investing)
3) this is more of a question, but are the fan projections taking scheduling into play? I was trying to look through the old posts to find out but anything on the methodology would be useful here.
So what we really want is to translate a sportsbook’s lines into the implied U/0 using both the cutoff number and the +/- amount? That’d be neat to see.
Can I get take all of my money out of savings and put it on the “over” for the fans’ projections of Philly, 84? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Seriously, I’ll be my house on the Phillies going over 84 wins.
That is it, Vegas is best protected when the money is even on both sides since the losers pay the vig. It is even better when more money is on the losing side. Vegas takes into account the smart bettors and fans. One key on bets though is weighting the odds. If you add up the odds of future bets on the AL Pennant, the likelihood is: Yankees 50%, Boston 36%, Rays. Angles and White Sox together just over 50%, and the rest of the AL together is over 34%. This adds up to over 170%. This is somewhere they make up money when odds don’t fall even.
TheUnrepentantGunner talking about tying up capital is also very important. The books are getting a great deal of capital until November, having this money work for them. All of these bets are extremely important for Vegas. And we never have to worry about Vegas losing money on sports unless the underdog of the play-in game of the NCAA Tournament wins it all.
There are definitely good bets to be had but Vegas is trying to even out money since it is in there best interest. Smart bettors and sports fans keep that line close to where it should be, but the droves of cubs fans in the world making $5 bets does push the odds. I don’t think a student of the game would give the Cubs the same odds as the Angels, and approximately the same odds as the Braves and White Sox to win the World Series.
I hope Fangraphs is not getting into the business of making touts – because this article is not a very good start for many of the reasons listed above. It is interesting for kicks and giggles to see how some of the projection systems and Fans reports differ from Vegas, but to give gambling advice based off of it, well.
vr, Xeifrank
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