Very Little Fun From Here On Out
Well, our site continues to expand, adding more and more features at an almost exponential rate. The most recent addition incorporated Dan Szymborski’s in-season ZiPS projections into a sortable page. We now have the capability to not only find out who looks the best or worst from this moment on but also to see how prior stats and the updated true talent expectations combine to form the new end of season projection.
Naturally, once the data was implemented, I raced over to the leaderboards and jumped to the very last page on the pitchers section. Yeah, I wanted to see which starters projected the worst from here on out. Now, starters fitting this bill are not automatically the guys that were terrible from the get-go, who have pitched very poorly thus far after abysmal pre-season projections. The list could also include some hurlers with awful projections who have pitched well and are bound to regress.
Over the rest of the season, here are the worst updated projections for starting pitchers that will realistically toe the rubber:
Adam Eaton, Orioles: 19 GS, 99 IP, 1.53 K/BB, 6.09 ERA Franklin Morales, Rockies: 19 GS, 97 IP, 0.89 K/BB, 6.03 ERA Rick Porcello, Tigers: 20 GS, 95 IP, 1.19 K/BB, 5.97 ERA Dustin Moseley, Angels: 20 GS, 111 IP, 1.71 K/BB, 5.92 ERA
Assuming that these all come to fruition, the worst starters by season’s end would be:
Adam Eaton, Orioles: 25 GS, 130.1 IP, 1.55 K/BB, 6.35 ERA Carlos Silva, Mariners: 27 GS, 149.2 IP, 1.94 K/BB, 6.31 ERA Sidney Ponson, Royals: 21 GS, 125.0 IP, 1.28 K/BB, 5.83 ERA Franklin Morales, Rockies: 21 GS, 101.0 IP, 1.01 K/BB, 5.83 ERA
These in-season projections alter whenever new data enters the sample but they provide a solid snapshot of what has occurred to date and how that affects our knowledge of a player’s true talent level. If Radhames Liz (not shown here due to not making any starts yet but clearly the worst in both areas) and Eaton live down to their projections, they are not likely to garner 19-20 more starts, skewing the playing time results. Still, this is an incredibly useful tool when it comes to determining the extent to which performance up to a certain point is meaningful.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
I thought this post was going to tell us that there wouldn’t be any more features added to the site. I almost fainted.
Oh and while I’m on the topic…. can we expect standings to be added at some point in the near future?
While we’re on the subject of suggesting things that we want, how about a FanGraphs swimsuit calendar?
I kid, I kid.
Kind of.
But how about tabular Pitch F/X data for both hitters and pitchers? Basically a database that requires no work on our end. 🙂
Also, when are you going to add catcher defense?
I expect they’ll add catcher defense just as soon as somebody comes up with a credible way of quantifying it.
Pretty stoked to have Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson as my hacking mass starters, then. Of course, if either of them gets more than 30 more innings this season, the revolution in baseball isn’t as far along as we all thought.
I think a young pitcher like Porcello, if he remains with Detroit this season, will make enough adjustments to flatten his learning curve and out perform his projections.
You mention Radhames Liz as though he’s listed in your tables, but he’s not. Am I missing something here?
Does ZIPS project Jamie Moyer to retire in the next two weeks? Otherwise, he should be on this list. Or else ZIPS is broken.
Rich Hill will be replacing Mark Hendrickson this weekend in the O’s rotation. Eaton, OTOH, looks to have a roster spot for a good bit longer. Perhaps the O’s will consider Troy Patton, David Hernandez, Jason Berken or Chirs Tillman at some point for his spot.
Eaton goes up against Greinke tonight! The ultimate reverse lock? Nah! Actually, I’m glad to see Eaton pitching tonight seeing as you need to throw a shutout to even have a chance at beating Greinke. Might as well not waste a good performance from one of the other starters.
Adam Eaton, When you are going to lose anyway.
As an O’s fan, I’m actually Ok with Eaton pitching if it prevents them from rushing Hernandez, Matsutz, Arietta, and Tillman. I think Patton is still not 100% –
But, the O’s could have a wicked offense next year – Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Roberts, Huff(if they re-sign him) – this offense will match up against anybody. If the O’s need to start Eaton in order for the young pitchers to be ready for next season, let it happen.
Yeah, you know how everybody talks about the AL East being a three-headed monster this year? Wait ’til next year. You’re going to see the best sub-.500 team in MLB history come out of that division, unless they all go 38-38 against each other.
Right now it is more of a four headed monster.
Do we really believe in Toronto’s pitching past Doc, though? I’m definitely not sold on Scott Richmond, and Brett Cecil isn’t keeping Zack Greinke company all year. Toronto hasn’t really faced it’s AL Beast brethren yet. The Yanks just marched in and took two of three. Until proven otherwise, the Jays seem like a creation of their opening schedule.
All true, but if Toronto played in the AL West they would have wrapped up the division by now, which is the basic point of your initial post. I’m not convinced that the O’s next year will be as good as the Jay’s this year either.
Obviously, I’m biased, but I do watch this team everday. : ^ ) But, I haven’t given up on the O’s this year. The O’s have had a pretty brutal early season schedule while running Eaton and Hendrickson out there 2 out of 5 starts. We’ll see which Rich Hill shows up this season and we’ll see how much longer the O’s stick with Eaton, but outside of Eaton the rotation is starting to stabilize. There is still a ton of baseball to be played. I really think this O’s team, unlike virtually every O’s team of the past decade, will actually get better as the season goes on. We still haven’t seen Wieters and Pie and the defense have looked much better in may….
I still think this team can turn a few heads THIS season. we’ll see…
I think the projections for Porcello are going to be off..
Is he projected to do bad since he doesnt have a major league track record and made the jump from A ball???
But I have watched all his starts, including the one wraping up as I type this, and he is getting better and better every start… Sure he doesnt get alot of K’s, and he gives up some dingers, but he does do a good job of getting ground balls.
I do not think there is anyway he has a 6 ERA from here on out…
I’ll be surprised if Porcello is even over a 4.60 ERA this year.
He looked great tonight (3.86 era, 4-3 record). But if he puts together a string of bad starts, he’ll be in Toledo before you can say “Bonderman.”
But these projections are fun.
Realistically, D. Moseley will not toe the rubber for 20 GS.
Porcello had another stellar outing. ERA around 3.50.