Very Little Fun From Here On Out

Well, our site continues to expand, adding more and more features at an almost exponential rate. The most recent addition incorporated Dan Szymborski’s in-season ZiPS projections into a sortable page. We now have the capability to not only find out who looks the best or worst from this moment on but also to see how prior stats and the updated true talent expectations combine to form the new end of season projection.

Naturally, once the data was implemented, I raced over to the leaderboards and jumped to the very last page on the pitchers section. Yeah, I wanted to see which starters projected the worst from here on out. Now, starters fitting this bill are not automatically the guys that were terrible from the get-go, who have pitched very poorly thus far after abysmal pre-season projections. The list could also include some hurlers with awful projections who have pitched well and are bound to regress.

Over the rest of the season, here are the worst updated projections for starting pitchers that will realistically toe the rubber:

Adam Eaton, Orioles:       19 GS,  99 IP, 1.53 K/BB, 6.09 ERA
Franklin Morales, Rockies: 19 GS,  97 IP, 0.89 K/BB, 6.03 ERA
Rick Porcello, Tigers:     20 GS,  95 IP, 1.19 K/BB, 5.97 ERA
Dustin Moseley, Angels:    20 GS, 111 IP, 1.71 K/BB, 5.92 ERA

Assuming that these all come to fruition, the worst starters by season’s end would be:

Adam Eaton, Orioles:       25 GS, 130.1 IP, 1.55 K/BB, 6.35 ERA
Carlos Silva, Mariners:    27 GS, 149.2 IP, 1.94 K/BB, 6.31 ERA
Sidney Ponson, Royals:     21 GS, 125.0 IP, 1.28 K/BB, 5.83 ERA
Franklin Morales, Rockies: 21 GS, 101.0 IP, 1.01 K/BB, 5.83 ERA

These in-season projections alter whenever new data enters the sample but they provide a solid snapshot of what has occurred to date and how that affects our knowledge of a player’s true talent level. If Radhames Liz (not shown here due to not making any starts yet but clearly the worst in both areas) and Eaton live down to their projections, they are not likely to garner 19-20 more starts, skewing the playing time results. Still, this is an incredibly useful tool when it comes to determining the extent to which performance up to a certain point is meaningful.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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dan
14 years ago

I thought this post was going to tell us that there wouldn’t be any more features added to the site. I almost fainted.

dan
14 years ago
Reply to  dan

Oh and while I’m on the topic…. can we expect standings to be added at some point in the near future?

Bill B.
14 years ago
Reply to  dan

While we’re on the subject of suggesting things that we want, how about a FanGraphs swimsuit calendar?

I kid, I kid.

Kind of.

But how about tabular Pitch F/X data for both hitters and pitchers? Basically a database that requires no work on our end. 🙂

vivaelpujols
14 years ago
Reply to  dan

Also, when are you going to add catcher defense?

joser
14 years ago
Reply to  dan

I expect they’ll add catcher defense just as soon as somebody comes up with a credible way of quantifying it.