Short-Term Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez
Every organization wants to be perceived as honest, but not each one can be taken at its word. It was refreshing to hear the Phillies acknowledge not too long ago that they won’t be contending over the next few years. As obvious a point as it was to make, it was important to hear the Phillies be truthful about their situation. As for the Tigers, it’s no secret what they’ve been doing. They’ll come right out and say it: they’ve been trying to win right away, in large part for the sake of Mike Ilitch. The Tigers haven’t acted like they’ve had the luxury of time, and Wednesday they made another big win-now move, keeping Victor Martinez at a four-year guarantee worth $68 million. Per usual, there are questions about the back. Per usual, that’s not the priority.
It’s a fairly simple move to explain, if you buy into the greater organizational pattern. The Tigers are set up to be competitive, and they could’ve used a bat, so they kept one of their best, at a substantial price. One of the things that was so perplexing about the Doug Fister trade was that it made the Tigers immediately worse. That broke from the trend, and caused some to wonder if the team might be slowly trying to plan more for the future. Martinez is about 2015. Martinez is about winning before the future even has a chance to happen. What does Mike Ilitch care about the years down the road?
A team needs to be able to understand where it is. The Tigers have been built to win soon. The Tigers have not been built to win eventually. Acting on that, with the window being already open, the Tigers boosted their immediate odds, and now we can glance at where they are, and at what Martinez is. Going over the Steamer team WAR projections, the Tigers are now fourth in the American League, with Martinez re-signed. More likely, they’re fifth, assuming Rusney Castillo isn’t actually going to be replacement-level. The more general point is that the Tigers appear competitive, and without Martinez, they projected like the Royals and Indians. This is a move to try to stay on top.
And Martinez, just last year, was arguably the very best hitter in baseball. That’s all he was — he isn’t supposed to do anything else — but that’s a hell of a thing to be. Martinez blended a career-low strikeout rate with a career-high isolated power, and that resulted in a career-high wRC+. Teams might consider him to be extra valuable, given his ability to make contact in a league in which that’s increasingly uncommon. Martinez missed all of 2012, and he got off to a slow start in 2013, but once he found his footing in that season, he was also tremendously productive, so that’s another point of some encouragement.
Now, Dave just wrote about his free-agent landmines, and he had Martinez placed second. The crowd predicted a three-year, $45-million contract. Dave predicted a four-year, $64-million contract. Martinez beat that last one by a million a season. Quote Dave:
Paying big money to Martinez is essentially a bet on his power, but he has 6,000 career plate appearances with an ISO of .168; his 2014 power surge just doesn’t fit with the rest of his career.
Martinez turns 36 in December, and it’s difficult to futz with the numbers such that $68 million looks like a good value. But the Tigers can always hope that one thing might be real: Martinez pulled the ball more than usual last season. He pulled the ball more from the left side, and he pulled the ball more from the right side. According to our numbers, last year, 26% of Martinez’s balls hit fair were pulled line drives or fly balls. His average over the four previous seasons was 18%. And he was pulling the ball with authority. A table of relevant data:
| Split | Career ISO | 2014 ISO | Career wRC+ | 2014 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pull | 0.283 | 0.414 | 171 | 241 |
| Center | 0.097 | 0.065 | 96 | 103 |
| Opposite | 0.130 | 0.099 | 106 | 103 |
Martinez did his improving to the pull sides. Maybe something about that makes it feel more sustainable. He obviously has outstanding bat control. There are plenty of reasons to believe Martinez is going to be really good again in 2015.
But you remember his age. Could get worse, could get hurt. In 2011, he was worth 2.5 WAR, with really good hitting numbers. David Ortiz hasn’t cleared 4 WAR since 2007. Steamer projects Martinez for 2.4 WAR. If you give him last year’s plate-appearance total, that goes up to 2.8.
So, say Martinez is worth 2.75 WAR next season. Knock off half a win each year, because of the aging. 2.25. 1.75. 1.25. Eight wins in four years worth $68 million? Are they worth $68 million and the loss of what would’ve been a compensation draft pick?
We all understand what the end is likely to look like, but for the short-term, the Tigers like Martinez at $17 million in 2015, with cracks beginning to form on the rest of the roster. Already, the Tigers have $110 million committed for 2016. They have $107 million committed for 2017. They have $81 million committed for 2018. This could very well be their last year with David Price. It looks like they’re losing Max Scherzer. There’s such a sense of urgency here that the Tigers almost have to operate with blinders on, blocking them from thinking about the future. The future has never seemed closer, so the immediate has never felt more important. The Tigers just about need to win in 2015, and that’s the strongest argument for giving such a guarantee to the best hitter available.
In the words of Matt Eddy, last October:
Detroit traded Avisail Garcia to the White Sox in the three-team deal that netted them Jose Iglesias, and no team has mortgaged its future to win now quite like the Tigers.
In the last version of Baseball America’s talent rankings, looking just at the farm systems, the Tigers ranked 28th. They were 27th the year before. The year before that, 23rd, and the year before that, 25th. The Tigers don’t seem to have much impact talent on the way, and on the big-league roster, you’re looking at Nick Castellanos and Jose Iglesias. One can only wonder where the Tigers would be without the J.D. Martinez discovery, but it’s clear that the system is thin, as a consequence of winning and trying to keep winning.
This isn’t the sort of thing that changes overnight. From 2011 to 2013, the Astros moved from 26 to 18 to 9. The Marlins moved from 29 to 28 to 5. The Cardinals moved from 24 to 10 to 1. The Diamondbacks moved from 22 to 4 just between 2011 and 2012. It is possible for systems to get stocked quickly, but oftentimes there has to be a tear-down, or some strokes of luck. You can’t bet on luck, and if the Tigers do eventually elect to tear down, it’s hard to see where some of their big money could be exchanged for prospects, since there’ll be a lot of dead weight.
The natural, kind of obvious conclusion: the Tigers are positioning themselves to resemble the Phillies. The Phillies are in the dreadful part of the cycle after having made the playoffs five years in a row. The Tigers have finished first in their division four years in a row, and they’re good enough to make it five. It sure looks like, within the next few years, the situation in Detroit is going to turn pretty ugly. But they can worry about that when they get there, if they even still have all the same front-office personnel, and besides, before it sucked to be a Phillies fan, it was pretty damn special. Since the Phillies won the World Series, they might say it was worth it. The Tigers put another $68 million toward buying an era a trophy.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
David Ortiz hasn’t cleared 4 WAR since 2007, but he’s been worth 9 WAR over three years and 13 WAR over four. It’s not actually all that much of a stretch to imagine this contract actually coming out on par in terms of value.
…I don’t think this team is winning a world series without a center fielder or a bullpen that resembles that of a contender, though.
David Ortiz is also a radical outlier. And he didn’t spend any of his career – let alone most – crouching behind the plate.
While it is difficult to analyze because we don’t have a lot of data on career DHs. The ones that are OK are HoFers like Edgar Martinez,Dave Winfield,Paul Moliter , and Frank Thomas. And they all fell off the table aroung age 39 or 40.
Victor Martinez is not close to those players and has more wear and tear from catching I imagine. Only a matter of time before the knees fall off.
Frank Thomas never fell off the table. He played incredibly in Oakland only to be benched in Toronto to avoid accruing the plate appearances for a vesting player option. Very insulting end for an incredible player.
Edgar also played his whole career with notoriously bad knees, fwiw.
Nitpicking, but Martinez isn’t in the HOF
Speaking as a Tigers fan:
/finishes glass of scotch
/see part about Phillies
/grabs scotch bottle
The Tigers, if you ask me, look more like the Astros of a few years back than the Phillies. If anything, a bit worse. And I don’t think Detroit’s a good enough baseball town to sustain what’s happened with the Astros the past few years. Until this season, Philadelphia outdrew Detroit substantially every year. If you could short a baseball team, man oh man would I do so with the Tigers.
Check out the TV ratings. Detroit is one of the bigger markets in baseball. People forget how many people, and how much money is just outside of Detroit.
Yes, this. The Cards led local ratings last season, but the Tigers led the previous two seasons. According to this article, they were second to the Yankees in total HHs and that was down from prior year. They outdraw the beloved Red Sox on NESN.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2014/09/29/Media/MLB-RSNs.aspx
How long before MLBNetwork and ESPN start showing them every other game?
So how much money do they thus get from their local broadcast package in comparison to the Phillies? (honest, not snarky question)
I remember that the Phillies do very well and make a lot more than the Tigers.
The important point is that the Tigers contract is up for renewal in a few years (there’s conflicting reports on when) so it behooves them financially to make sure the product stays elite on the field.
This is absolutely about 2015 and maybe not much more.
http://anothermarinersblog.com/2014/11/12/victor-martinez-update-four-more-years/
The thing is, even with the win-now mentality, they probably could have gotten just as much on-field production for a fraction of the cost elsewhere. Paying a 36-year-old DH coming off a career year is literally the worst value per dollar you can spend.
Maybe, maybe not. If Victor was 5 years younger and played in the field he’d be getting $200M.
Also, you could say it’s a career 1.5 seasons.
The Tigers are really screwed if Victor or Miggy gets hurt tho, yes. Can’t have 2 DHs.
This assumes they have a spending limit in place. Who knows, they could put up a dodgers’ payroll this next year.
Actually, the less honest you are, the more helpful it is to be perceived as honest. 🙂
Obviously, 30+ HR is a little rich to expect again. But I get a little confused about this allegation that his power surge doesn’t fit with the rest of his career.
Doesn’t fit with his last two healthy seasons, sure. But here are his HR results from the full seasons he played from 2004-2010: 23 20 16 25 23 20
With that sort of output, a surge to 32 HR is something that really doesn’t seem that out of place, given how variable baseball can be on a year-to-year basis.
Now those bigger HR totals were from an era of different offense levels and from a younger hitter… But the current older hitter should be helped by not catching/not recovering from serious injury. So Steamer projects him for 19 HR, which feels about right for a reasonable expectation. But a 19-HR projection also means it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if he goes for 25 dingers, especially if that change in pull profile that Jeff helpfully pointed out is a thing that Martinez can carry forward with him.
Why would you look at HR rather than ISO? This isn’t a fantasy analysis. ISO=power in the real game; HR=power in old fashioned roto leagues.
Home runs drive ISO far more than doubles do. And Martinez isn’t going to hit (m)any triples.
In fact, 2014 was was about as low as Martinez has been in doubles, when he’s had anything close to a full season.
Thus, the 2014 power spike that Dave references came entirely from HR.
Gosh, is this overblown. The Tigers are going to look like the Phillies? So Cabrera is the same as Howard?
VMart is a good hitter, and all the fundamentals suggested that his 2014 was mostly the result of talent, and not a fluke. Walking well more than he struck out (pitch recognition and such a sustained level of good contact are not statistical flukes) increasing power, switch-hitting, hitting to all fields, hitting a lot of line drives, etc. are all representative of talent.
His .316 BABIP this year exactly matches his career average. Sure, he’s not likely to hit 30 home runs again, but 20-25 would not be shocking.
The fact is that Victor is as talented a hitter as anyone in the game, and there’s plenty of teams out there that would take this contract if the Tigers weren’t his first choice. He’s now free from the wear and tear of catching, and David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez have shown that elite hitters can age well if they can mentally adjust to the DH role.
And Kinsler was the third-best 2B in baseball according to WAR this year, and his contract is front-loaded, so he makes less as time goes on.
So the Tigers are “doomed” because they have $55 million locked up in this year’s OPS leader, a triple-crown winner, and an All-Star 2B.
The only contract that really worries me is Verlander, but that’s because he’s a pitcher.
Age catches up with the best of them. And Victor Martinez is good, but he ain’t the best of them.
Are you sure about that? Because I will quote from the article:
“And Martinez, just last year, was arguably the very best hitter in baseball.”
With wear and tear on his knees and not young. And he didn’t leg out any base hits.
To me, he is a lot like Edgar Martinez, and that is a great thing.
“And Martinez, just last year, was arguably the very best hitter in baseball.”
Edgar Martinez years above 130 wRC+
1990, 1991, 1992, (two injury-shortened seasons), 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 (retired)
Victor Martinez years above 130 wRC+
2014
you’re right, the Phillies of 2009-2011 (the RAJ years) were better than the Tigers of 2012-2014.
it’s going to get ugly, tigers fans.
Dave Dombrowski — the rather mysterious Doug Fister debacle notwithstanding — has consistently shown himself a very fine talent evaluator, far beyond Amaro I’d say.
The Tigers are a bit like St. Louis, in that otherwise intelligent people keep predicting a Big Decline that never comes (I believe that “Antonio Bananas” at this website has been anticipating a Cardinal collapse since the Gas House Gang retired).
With a reasonable player payroll, a shrewd GM, and enough current talent to win 90+ games in 2015, Detroit remains well-positioned for the foreseeable future, and a an overpay of one or two million & one or two years won’t alter that fact very much.
Don’t listen to me, though; I picked Texas to win the A.L. pennant last year.
I think the obvious difference between St. Louis and Detroit is best illustrated by how they each handled their star players. The Cardinals let Pujols walk and will never regret that decision. The Tigers signed Cabrera to a 10 year extension that they will start regretting within the next couple of years.
What were there other options?
and
Do those options give them a better shot at winning?
I think there’s a limit on how far into the future a team can and should look. Is there really any certainty with looking 3-4 years into the future?
Of course. Everyone foresaw the Astros, everyone foresaw the Phillies. On the other end, everyone foresaw the Nationals. GMs are paid big $$$ to foresee some years into the future.
Yeah, the further you get out, the lower the certainty gets. But it’s not some big mysterious puzzle.
The. Tigers have positioned themselves to win now. If they do or not remains to be seen. To me, the biggest problem with this article is the WAR on a DH.
Sure, Victors entire value is at the plate. Plenty of position players gain a positive WAR on the field who do not pass the eye test either. I’ll take 2006 Ortiz over Sizemore everyday and twice on Sunday.
Mike Ilitch wants a World Series, and he’s 85, and he knows his best, and maybe only, chance is to get it done now, with the team they have in place. He doesn’t have time for a rebuild. If Ilitch is still alive in 2018 and V-Mart hits .212 with 11 home runs on a 70-92 team, he’s not going to care about that if V-Mart also helped them win the World Series in 2015 or 2016.
The Tigers are all-in on this. They really don’t have a choice. They can’t throw the baby out with the bathwater like the Red Sox did in 2011 and 2013, because a lot of those contracts the Tigers have are untradeable. They’ve got to keep the team together and ride this out.
The corollary is if VMart gets hurt this year and misses much of the year, they lose the entire reason they signed him to the contract: to perform in 2015. The knife cuts both ways, you could say.
I’ve been hearing that the Tigers window is closing since 2009. I’ve been hearing that they have the worst farm system in baseball since 2007. Yet, year in and year out they somehow manage to trade for players at the deadline and trade for guys they need. And year in and year out they stay competitive. Has any team traded for more talent than the Tigers the past 4 or 5 years despite having this horrible system? THey got Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Infante, Soria, Jhonny Peralta and David Price amongst a host of others. Every year they seem to go out and get the guy they want during the season.
Also I’m tired of hearing about this proverbial “window closing”. In 2013 I heard articles about the Giants window being shut, than they go out and win the World Series last year. In 2012 the Tigers lost in the World Series and many questioned if that was their last chance at a title due to bad contracts of Fielder and the aging of players. But in just 2 short years, they have a different 3B, SS, 2B, CF, RF, LF, a whole new bullpen and 2 new starting pitchers. Basically they completely re-did the whole team in 2 years and stayed competitive the whole time.
A lot can happen in a couple years and the Tigers have proved just that. Their team is entirely different than it was not too long ago, so to say their window or any teams is closing at a certain time is ridiculous. All this signing guarantees is that they will be a better team next year than they would’ve been if they didn’t have Martinez even if it was more than I would’ve spent on him.
What window? The Tigers didn’t make the playoffs in 2009 after having been the worst team in the division in 2008 and missing the playoffs the year before that as well. Then they were a .500 team in 2010.
The only thing you should trust less than this crazy, dangerous objective data stuff is your own homer memory.
They made the World Series in 06, won over 90 some games in 07, and made it to a game 163 in 2009. In 2010 they were in 1st place in late July only to suffer a bunch of injuries which knocked them out of the race. In fact They spent more days in first place the previous 4 years than any team in the division. But they had an aging core of Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, Pudge Rodriguez and Placido Polanco. People said that they would fall off a cliff cause those guys were washed up(and they were right about that), and that they had no farm system due to the Cabrera trade to improve.
But then they managed to make some shrewd trades and signings and suddenly won 4 straight division titles and have played in more postseason games than any team in the AL in that span.
And BTW the last thing I am is a homer. I hate dishing out big money contracts. I hated giving Cabrera and Verlander those contracts 2 years before they set to hit FA. I hated the Fielder contract, I hated the Fister trade and I dislike this contract. I would much rather my team build through the draft with a mix of some FA signings, but the fact is that’s not how the Tigers operate right now. I just hate when people put this “window” on teams cause often times it doesn’t exist.
‘Windows’ do exist, just ask the Astros and Phillies. Or any rebuilding team. Just because blahblah columnists in need of SOME angle every stinkin’ day misidentify ‘windows’ hither and yon doesn’t mean they’re still not here and there. Any columnist who identified a team with a young Miguel Cabrera and a young Justin Verlander as having a closing window was just nuts or more likely blathering in order to fill out that day’s required article.
Sure they exist if you continually make bad moves all around, but under Dombrowski the Tigers have yet to do that. And it’s quite possible that the Tigers will be like the Phillies in 2 years, but I’m just saying that 2 years is a long time in baseball.
If they are good for 2 more years, by then they may get a surprise player that helps keep that window open, or they may put together a few strong drafts(I’m including this past one) which either nets them a quality player via trade or a homegrown talent. Or Verlander re-invents himself and becomes a quality pitcher again to go with Porcello and Sanchez. Or they find a desperate team at the deadline that overpays for a half season of David Price. Or they just find somebody crazy enough to take one of their bad contracts off their hands like they did with Fielder and Boston did in the trade with LA a few years ago.
Things happen in baseball especially when you consider you have a system of hundreds of players. All it takes is for one or two of those guys to take a step forward and surprise you and suddenly your fortunes are different.
So basically it’s all those reasons why I hate people that bring up the “win now” or windows opening or closing. I do agree that the Tigers do want to win now, just cause of the health of Illitch, but I don’t agree that they are necessarily screwed in 2-3 years.
A big concern for Detroit this season is the hole in CF. Sure, A-Jax has been an underwhelming player—relative to what he was projected to be as a prospect—and his 2014 was below average, but he’s still a better player than Rasmus, who is the premier CF option available in free agency. In order to load up with Price this past July, the Tigers had to create a considerable hole in CF. Had the farm system been better stocked, perhaps Detroit would’ve been able to add to their big-league team without subtracting from it at the same time.
Same goes for Smyly, too. Imagine if Dave D. had acquired Price without moving Smyly or A-Jax thanks to a farm system that wasn’t among the bottom ten. Smyly would’ve been moved to the bullpen for the rest of 2014, which would’ve provided a huge lift, and he sure would look nice penciled in as the fifth starter heading into 2015 now that Max is sure to leave.
A farm system is used to fortify the big league squad, but not simply by graduating players to the majors—sometimes, it is through the use of those trade chips to acquire other players.
And when a team has to subtract from its 25-man to make deadline deals, it is a sign—at least to me—that they are running on borrowed time.
Sure Mike Illitch is a great guy and all, giving all his money to the Tigers and who doesn’t wanna see an old man get his dying wish of winning a world series. But Mike Illitch might not be as nice a guy as we all think, I mean the dude has the keys to the city of Detroit. You know who else has the Keys to the city of Detroit? Saddam Hussein.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/guess-who-got-the-key-to-detroit/
Giving $$$ to fight a malaria which you’ll never get or try to improve public schools your children and grandchildren will never attend is charitable. Spending all your money on YOUR baseball team? Fine, go ahead, but there’s nothing charitable or noble about it at all.
That’s what I’m saying man! The whole thing is a charade and he is actually bros with Saddam.
People keep saying “they’ll be awful in a few years”….well, yes. Just like the Astros and Twins and other teams that follow the long, slow, sometimes it takes decades, plan to be good. Why is the Tigers way bad, but being awful but patient is some great strategy?
As long as Dombrowski is in charge the Tigers will stay competitive.
Why is the WAR deduction from year to year the same for DHs as position players? There is no defense to deteriorate.
Jeff’s doing an off-the-cuff semi-calculation there. Actually, if you ran the historical numbers, you’d probably get a much steeper expected decline, given Victor’s age.
Just going by eyeballs and not stats, I thought Victor Martinez was the most fearsome hitter in the league last season. I see no reason why this cannot continue barring injury. If I were a Tigers fan, I would have no problem with this deal. I wonder how this affects Nelson Cruz’s market.
Can we stop mentioning how old (& close to dying) Mike Ilitch is, plz?
Dang,
Well I can’t resist tooting my own horn on this one. I wish I could link to the fangraphs chat from a year ago where I floated the “Tigers are on the road to Philliedom” idea and was shot down. The Tigers’ resemblance to what the Phillies were about three years ago is uncanny.
I understand the idea of trying to win now, but what if this takes them out of the Scherzer race? It’s not the same money, but if they cannot afford to sign Scherzer, then I don’t see this as a ‘win now’ move.