Walker Insurance: Diamondbacks Pick Up Josh Bell for Cash

This is a trade article, as the Diamondbacks acquired Josh Bell from the Marlins today in exchange for cash considerations. It’s also an injury article, sadly. Christian Walker departed last night’s D-backs/Nationals game with an oblique injury, and was due for an MRI this morning. The results haven’t been made public yet, but trading for Bell is a statement in and of itself, so let’s walk through the trade and injury in combination.

Walker has quietly been the second-best first baseman in the game over the past three years. I don’t mean that hyperbolically; he’s second only to Freddie Freeman in WAR over that time period. He’s done it with good offense and outrageous, comically good first base defense. I don’t think I’m selling this enough. Per Statcast, Walker has been 38 outs above average over that time period. Carlos Santana is second… with 17. DRS scores it 33-20 in Walker’s favor, with Matt Olson at 21. However you look at it, Walker is head and shoulders above everyone else at the position. Last night, he made a standard-for-him, spectacular-for-most play on a foul ball:

After that inning, he came back to the dugout and departed the game. Now we and the Diamondbacks can only wait to hear the injury news.

Prior to this trade, the D-backs truly has no plan behind Walker. Kevin Newman – yes, the light-hitting former Pittsburgh shortstop – is their nominal backup first baseman. Pavin Smith is down in Triple-A, but Arizona sees him as no more than a bench bat. Enter Bell, who is on his third straight year of being a deadline acquisition, with decreasing fanfare each time.

In 2022, Bell was absolutely on fire in Washington when the Padres came calling. He was part of the Juan Soto deal, and a key addition to San Diego’s lineup. With a 144 wRC+ and impressive batted ball metrics, he looked like he was finally putting together the potential he’s flashed throughout his major league career.

Bell ended that season in a slump, then signed a two-year deal to man first base in Cleveland. He struggled out of the gate before getting flipped to Miami for a light return. The Marlins made the playoffs with Bell collecting some big hits down the stretch, but the shine wore off after he declined to exercise an opt out in the offseason. He’s on track for his worst full season ever, and with the playoffs squarely out of the picture in Miami, the Marlins were simply looking for someone to provide them salary relief.

That might sound like a grim portent for the Diamondbacks, and maybe it is. But Bell’s worst offensive season works out to a 96 wRC+, while Newman’s career line checks in at 78. He’s still a meaningful upgrade, and it’s reasonable to expect some bounce-back. After all, his established career level is that of a league average first baseman, and some of this year’s underperformance comes down to BABIP luck, or lack thereof.

As you might expect of someone who was traded for cash considerations, Bell wasn’t in high demand across the league. Justin Turner is a similar category of hitter — defensively limited but likely to return slightly above-average value at the plate. He got traded for a pure lottery ticket, and he’s earning less than Bell this year while playing better. Playoff contenders usually don’t have much use for these fringe-y bats.

The Mariners were a special case because of their overall lack of offense. The Diamondbacks are a special case because their roster was set up with no real backup plan if Walker got hurt. He’s been remarkably durable — Walked played in 157 games in 2023 and 160 in 2022, and prior to the injury, he’d appeared in every D-backs game this season — and their DH situation happened to feature hulking outfield types instead of hulking corner infielders. Walker might be back shortly, but if he were to miss a lot of time, the Diamondbacks would have a huge hole in their lineup. With Bell in the fold, that risk is meaningfully mitigated. He’s obviously not as good as Walker, but he’s miles ahead of their specific replacement level.

There’s more to like about this deal for the Snakes, even. Even if Walker returns in a week or two, Bell might be a useful roster piece. Walker is the only Diamondback currently hurt, but Alek Thomas missed a chunk of the season, Geraldo Perdomo missed two months early in the year, and they have their fair share of older contributors who could use more rest than they’re currently getting. Bell isn’t a perfect fit in that he can only play first and DH, but even if he’s just a platoon partner for Joc Pederson, that frees up Randal Grichuk to pitch in in the outfield. Every little bit helps when you’re right on the edge of the playoffs.

All of that assumes that Bell will be a valuable hitter, and there are signs that might be the case. He’s long been one of the streakiest players in baseball, and he’s hot at the moment, with five homers and a .342/.444/.763 slash line in his last 10 games. He has plus power and when he’s tapping into it, he can be a fearsome bat. Maybe last year will be a template; after the desultory stint in Cleveland that got him dumped for spare parts, he slashed .270/.338/.480 down the stretch as one of Miami’s best hitters.

I don’t think that Bell will be a lineup regular after Walker returns, but I still think he’ll be a nice addition to the team. He can play first base for a few weeks (hopefully not more) while Walker recovers. When rosters expand in September, a pinch-hitter and platoon DH will be a reasonable use of a roster spot. Adding that player to a team that can’t afford many injuries, and at such a low cost, is a prudent use of resources.

That doesn’t make it any less of a bummer that Walker got hurt, of course. He’s been churning out top-tier value at first base for years. He was on pace for his best season just in time to hit free agency at the ripe old age of 33. We wrote about his wonderful walk year just two weeks ago. The timing stinks.

Hopefully, the Bell acquisition is just a prudent hedge by the D-backs front office. Hopefully Walker returns unscathed and picks up right where he left off. But he happened to get hurt before the trade deadline, and there happened to be a suitable replacement available for nothing more than money the very next day. Adding Bell was a no-brainer for the team, and I think that everyone will walk away from this one happy even if Walker’s back in a blink.