Weighing Javier Baez’s Terrible MLB Debut
To say Javier Baez had a rocky start to his big league career would be an understatement. After tearing up the minor leagues to the tune of .274/.331/.541, the 21-year-old rookie hit a putrid .169/.227/.324 in 52 games with the Chicago Cubs last year. His on base percentage was the lowest of any hitter who recorded at least 200 plate appearances last year.
Baez’s contact problems were unprecedentedly chronic. Just 59% of his swings resulted in contact, which is the lowest mark we’ve seen in the PITCHf/x era. However, Baez’s Contact% only tells part of the story. It reveals that many of his swings didn’t lead to contact, but doesn’t tell us why.
His plate discipline, however, was undeniable terrible. He swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone (39%), and fewer within it (58%) than the average hitter. His Correct% — the ratio of pitches where he either swung at a strike or didn’t swing at a ball — was the second worst among players with at least 200 plate appearances last season. The only hitter with a lower percentage was Reed Johnson, who apparently got 200 plate appearances last season.
Here’s a look at how these two metrics correlate from Triple-A to the majors. This considers all hitters since 2011 who recorded at least 100 plate appearances in both Triple-A and the majors. Baez’s big league O-Swing% and Z-Swing% were both worse than you’d expect based on his minor league numbers.
But not much contact…
Based on his 434 plate appearances from Triple-A last year, Baez earns a KATOH projection of 7.6 WAR through age-28. This forecast was the 12th highest among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year. That’s an encouraging projection, but it’s also a projection that ignores the most recent data on Baez, namely, the 52 games where he fell flat on his face as a big leaguer.
KATOH was only designed to analyze minor league stats, so it has nothing to say about Baez’s major league performance. But what if his two months in the Windy City had instead taken place in Triple-A Iowa? Would KATOH still think highly of Baez’s future outlook?
I decided to run the numbers to find out. Below, you’ll see three iterations of KATOH projections for Baez: One based strictly on his numbers from Triple-A, one based only on his numbers from the majors and one a weighted average of the two.
| Level | MLB | >4 WAR | >6 WAR | >8 WAR | >10 WAR | >12 WAR | >16 WAR | WAR thru 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 97% | 37% | 35% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 19% | 7.6 |
| MLB | 44% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.9 |
| Weighted Average | 79% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 5.3 |
Here’s a visual, for those of you who prefer your data in the form of pictures.
The weighted average projection weighs the two pieces of Baez’s season strictly in terms plate appearances, without accounting for the fact that his 200+ plate appearances in the majors happened more recently. You could certainly argue the more recent chunk should receive a larger share of the weight. However, this analysis also treats his big league struggles as if they happened in Triple-A, which sells Baez a bit short. Overall, it’s probably not too much of a stretch to say these two effects more or less even out.
As we already knew, Baez’s forecast looks excellent when we only consider his Triple-A numbers. Unsurprisingly, the MLB iteration is a lot less encouraging. However, when taken together and weighted by sample size, the end result isn’t all that bad. His 5.3 WAR would have put him 29th among minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, a few spots ahead of both Joey Gallo and Steven Souza.
Baez’s big league debut was a huge disappointment. There’s no way around it. Even if he were to hack 10% off of his strikeout rate from last season, he would still have one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. There’s plenty of reason to worry about Baez’s offensive game going forward, but he does still have plenty of redeeming qualities.
For one, he still has age on his side. He will be just 22 years old in 2015, and looks like a good bet to spend most if not all of the year in the big leagues. Of the 136 hitters who racked up at least 2 WAR last year, more than half (79) spent their age-22 seasons entirely in the minors. Regardless of what Baez does this year, he’ll still be a ways ahead of many prospects his age. There’s still plenty of time for him to make much needed adjustments.
Additionally, he can provide value on defense, which makes his poor OBPs much easier to swallow. By no means is Baez a great defender, but he’s played shortstop as recently as last season, so there’s no reason to think he can’t be at least an average defender at second base. The offensive bar is much lower for middle infielders, which means Baez doesn’t necessarily need to be a great hitter to be a useful player.
Baez was scary bad last year, but it’s still far too soon to slap him with the “bust” tag. He tore it up in the minors, and has been drawing rave reviews from scouts for years. A poor two months as one of the youngest players in the majors isn’t nearly enough to wipe all of that away.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Timely, as Baez just got optioned to AAA.
Good news for Alcantara
Alcantara will be sent down and Baez will replace him. I just got back from the future…
…and Baez was just optioned to AAA
I’d rather have Rutledge than Baez at this point.
This article not only alerted me that Reed Johnson is still a thing, but also that he posted a 0.5% BB% last year in those 201 PAs with a K/BB ratio of 37:1.
Timely, as Reed Johnson was just released
Almost like I timed it that way.
Major League scouting is far more advanced, who would have guessed. The hitters that make enough adjustments eventually become productive MLB players, the rest end up toiling away in the minors or going home. The approach he had success with in the minors may not work against more advanced pitchers with better control.
Wasn’t there a recent look at the strike zones in MiLB vs. MLB showing they are substantially different with the MLB zone being much larger – hence the huge K jump for many already K-prone MiLB hitters once they reach the majors?
I’m not aware of that study, but would be very interested. Do you remember where you saw it?
I tried a quick googling when I posted but came up empty. I’m sure I didn’t make it up, but it’s proving hard to find.
Found it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-preview-exploring-minor-league-hitters-major-league-struggles/
Interesting articles there peepants. I read both the one that you mentioned and the one that they cited to reference the “enlarged mlb strikezone”… other than the fact that they were using their own site as their resource for this theory, I found them pretty good reads. Thanks for the link. I’d give you some candy if I had any.
anybody who wants to get a feel for Baez should watch him live and up close. The guy is just plain wild. I went from watching him on TV and thinking “golly, his swing is kinda violent” to “good Lord, I have never seen someone swing so wild before.”
I can’t see him getting close to 10 WAR in the majors unless it is with his glove
You lack imagination.
He sees him potentially getting 10 WAR, all glove/no bat – I’d say his imagination is working fantastically!
One caveat – how accurate is AAA zone data?
Definitely a bit dicey since it’s done by stringers rather than an automated system. Still, it doesn’t appear to be terrible. Not ideal, but unfortunately it’s all that’s publicly available right now.
Without digging into the numbers too much Baez sure sounds a lot like former Angels farmhand Brandon Wood. Wood had superior power but could never grasp the strike zone. So disappointing.
Let this article be proof when Epstein says he doesn’t want to rush prospects. If we ignore his major league numbers, he is still one of the top prospects in all of baseball.
The funny thing is that the Cubs pushed/rushed Baez through the minors. Baez went from A+ to the big leagues in barely a year. The contact issues alone would make you think they would take it slow, especially since they were not in contention last year and had no competitive reason to push/rush a player. The Cubs must feel that this path was best for his development, knowing that another stint in the minors was a possibility.
I wonder if the Cubs will look back one day and wish they had done it differently.
Word on the street is that Theo and Jed wanted to set Javy up for some level of failure so that he could understand how much his approach had to change to ultimately be successful as a major league player.
Baez was the youngest player in the National League in the 2014 season. He is a 22 year old player that belongs in AAA right now.
Dilson Herrera is 15 months younger than Baez, who was the second youngest player in the NL in 2014.
I saw him play this last winter at the Puerto Rico league. He posted a K% above 40% in almost 50 PAs. It was discouraging for the fans and media here. I still agree that he has the age on his side.
I saw him this winter at the Puerto Rico league. He posted a K% of above 40% in almost 50 PAs. It was discouraging for the fans and media here. I agree that he has his age on his side.
Good grief. The young man was 21, and they played him everyday batting second. Sink or swim, to show him how he needs to work on his pitch recognition. His career is just starting. And you need to do some checking before you make proclamations about his defense. Joe Maddon said yesterday he might be the most talented 22 year old he has ever seen defensively and running the bases.