Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/15

12:00

Dan Szymborski: I am here, LIVE FROM SUPLEX CITY

12:01

Comment From RotoLando
I’m here for the free breadsticks

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Crap, was I supposed to get breadsticks?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I’m saving the complete non-baseball Qs for the Lightning Round

12:02

Comment From Xander
I’m not well versed in statistics but is there some measure of confidence that zips or steamer calculates with each player’s projection? If so, is this published on the internets somewhere?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I publish probabilities of various levels and milestones on the spreadsheet, but not a specific 95% confidence interval or something

12:03

Comment From Sim Junkie
Dan, any idea if Diamond Mind will be putting out a projection disk this year?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: And for the follow up question, yes.

12:03

Comment From AVoidiam
Who is the Ragnaros of MLB?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Billy Beane. He’s powerful, but his power will go in an unexpected direction.

12:04

Comment From Maxamuz
Does Texas bat Andrus 2nd or 7th? He is awful against RH and will see a lot more of them. He’s fine batting 9th he said, seems like a better spot no? Atleast in the bottom 3rd of the order.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I would definitely bat him towards the back of the lineup.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: All the usual caveats about lineup position being only slihgtly more valuable than the vice-presidency

12:05

Comment From I am not a robot
Name 4 players who will be probably be on the DL to begin the year who you think are under rated as they’re being drafted right now.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see – McGee, Richards

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Jansen

12:06

Comment From Zimmania is running wild, brother!
Zimmania is running wild, brother!

12:06

Comment From Bob
Do you like Jose Ramirez or Erick Aybar this year?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Aybar

12:06

Comment From James
TELL ME THAT CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ WILL BE ALRIGHT

12:06

Dan Szymborski: NOT EVEN GOD CAN DO THAT!

12:06

Comment From Matt T
Why won’t Harper explode this season? He gets the injury kick, but he doesn’t have “chronic” injuries. And as a young college student, I still can’t help but cry when realizing Harper is STILL younger than me

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, people forget how young he still is. Now, I think he’ll break out at some point, though it doesn’t *have* to be this year.

12:07

Comment From Maxamuz
Who are you expecting to beat their ZiPS projections the most?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t written that yet 🙂

12:07

Comment From mtsw
I just found out that my job is laying me off with no pay for two weeks in late April. Does this make the purchase of a PS4 and MLB The Show more justifiable (two weeks with nothing to do) or less justifiable (money I can’t afford to spend if I’m not getting paid)? Bonus points if you can answer in a way that I can use to justify the purchase to my girlfriend.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: “LinkedIn Premium is now available for free for PlayStation Plus members! I’d be stupid *not* to do it!”

12:08

Comment From Guest
Jesus Christ there’s no such thing as a free breadstick

12:08

Dan Szymborski: If you can run fast there is

12:08

Comment From RotoLando
Does ZIPS like Zack McAllister more as a starter or a reliever?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: reliever

12:08

Comment From Vic
Cervelli a decent 2nd catcher in a 15 team league? Who are some others?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: Too injury prone and the second tier is too large

12:09

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him 26th among catchers.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: (In fantasy with playing time assumptions for reality)

12:10

Dan Szymborski: 5 catchers right above him – Castro, Zunino, Salty, Ruiz, Norris

12:10

Comment From Paul
Is Uehara going to wind up on the DL?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: They’re still saying no but I think he gets a postdated stint and misses the first several days of the season

12:11

Comment From Sim Junkie
Why all the gnashing of teeth over the Cubs and Bryant? They’re just following the rules that both sides have agreed to, and they’re far from the first team to do so.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Usually, the service time preservation isn’t so blatant – almost ever rookie just isn’t this good

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Technically options aren’t supposed to be based on “non-baseball” needs, but typically that’s almost impossible to prove to an arbitrator

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Though the truth is that any system with bright lines — which there have to be in a system like this — will have guys that just miss it.

12:13

Comment From Vic
Who leads the Red Soxs in saves this year? Any chance Tazawa?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: Oops, Red Sox *are* acknowledging it. Position has shifted some

12:14

Comment From Vslyke
ZIPS has a fantastic defensive projection for Gregory Polanco despite below average results last year. Why is that: MiLB SBs?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: I talked a little bit about this subject on Twitter right before the chat

12:15

Dan Szymborski: If it wasn’t for his MLB performance, his defensive projection would be much higher

12:15

Comment From B
I just want to announce I am unfollowing anyone who tweets about wrestling

12:15

Comment From B
Seriously why do people feel the need to announce who they are unfollowing?

12:15

Comment From mtsw
Why does ZiPS love Maikel Franco so much? http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

12:15

Dan Szymborski: One of those questions I can’t really answer. Relative to what? ZiPS sees him as a bit below average – that’s hardly some torrid love affair

12:16

Comment From Ace Rothstein
What are the chances that Cosart gets suspended, if at all? If so, how long would it be?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Ranges from zero to life depending on what an investigation turns up

12:17

Comment From Bren
The Mets have Familia tweaking his delivery so he can work up more and be more effective against lefties. Wouldn’t working on a changeup be an easier fix than altering someone’s motion and hoping they can still keep their stuff and command?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the only reason they’ve been tweaking his delivery – they also want him to work on his release point

12:19

Comment From Sim Junkie
I was busy last week – I must have missed all the public apologies that were sent to the Astros by people who slammed them for not signing Aiken last summer, right?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Even if they were right about his elbow, they still handled it in an incredibly ham-handed fashion

12:21

Dan Szymborski: The fact is, even with TJ surgery, Aiken would have made *way* more as a FA – it was about trying to game the slot money and it backfired

12:21

Comment From Bob
Would the game be better or worse if rosters were expanded another 5 players for the regular season?

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Worse because too many teams would just add a crapload more relievers.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: “And here comes Al Alburquerque, the Tigers 2nd out of the 7th right handed one out guy!”

12:22

Comment From andrew
why is Baltimore seriously considering putting Gausman in the pen?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Weird valuation of tenure

12:22

Comment From Joe
Which side would you want: Cashner/Alex Rios or Shane Greene/Melky?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Probably the latter – no interest in Rios

12:23

Comment From RPR
If MLB re-booted with a big “fantasy draft,” how many rounds would it take for a relief pitcher (i.e. Kimbrel, Aroldis) to get picked?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: They only need one delusional team to take ’em early

12:23

Comment From rustydude
College students in their 20’s are no longer young

12:23

Dan Szymborski: wait, what did this connect to?

12:23

Comment From Dan Ugglas Forearms
Your take on the Braves? This year and the years to follow

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Not too much excitement – it’s a rebuilding team

12:24

Comment From the underfaker
Will Souza be slow to adjust to the majors?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been on the pessimistic side

12:24

Comment From zurzles
(12 team H2H points) I botched my auction and ended up without a decent 2B (only one spot, no MI) so I went and picked up Miller, J. Ramirez and Semien, hoping one of them would stick. How do you rate these guys? Who do you drop first?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Probably Semien. Miller’s a really good flyer actually

12:24

Comment From neal
It took a few days for the Red Sox to trade for a backup when they learned Vazquez will miss significant time. Meanwhile, the Dbacks are still starting Tuffy Gosewich. Are the Dbacks incredibly incompetent, or just deliberately tanking?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: They’re realistic.

12:24

Comment From free agent
Other than injuries and prospects, what type of players/situations do you think projection systems get wrong when they are wrong?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Players that undergo mechanical changes.

12:25

Comment From Josh Nelson
Hey Dan. Let’s pretend you are Robin Ventura. Who do you start at 2B? The speedy Micah Johnson who could provide positive value offensively but could be the next Rickie Weeks defensively? Or Carlos Sanchez, who is the much better defender but provides very little offensive value?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: Garcia.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Micah Johnson could still use some time at AAA. Let it be a controversy once he can actually handle AAA hitters – if he’s really going to provide positive offensive value in the majors, he should be able to beat a .700 OPS in AAA.

12:26

Comment From Phillies113
Have the Phillies discovered a new market inefficiency by constantly putting noodle arms and 2nd basemen in the outfield?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: heh

12:26

Comment From James
Ok, actually talk to me about the Red Sox catching situation though. Will it be Hanigan/Sandy Leon or will we see some of that sexy Swihart we’ve been promised will be the next Buster Posey? Also….Sandy Leon?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: They can muddle through with Hanigan just fine. Catching is a tough physical position and a lot of catching prospects tend to develop in fits and starts offensively. I would not want a top pitching prospect to outright skip AAA unless my options were absolutely horrid.

12:27

Comment From KHitt
Let’s look at the hyped rooks… Will Bryant, Pederson, Pompey live up to the hype?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: First two yes. I think we’re too quick to get insane about Pompey – he has very scant upper levels play even though he *has* been excellent this spring

12:28

Comment From Dan Ugglas Forearms
I think you need to pick between your girl and your PS4, that way you can be completely devoted. So, i would recommend buying the Show.

12:28

Comment From MetsFaithful5
If both are healthy this year, which one will be better: Matt Harvey or Masahiro Tanaka? Similarly, who would you pick to be better this year: deGrom or Pineda?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, that’s a pick ’em. I’m more comfortable with deGrom

12:28

Comment From L. Scott
Will Carl Crawford be productive enough to be mixed league relevant? Does he or Rollins lead off for the Dodgers?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: I have Crawford ranked the #53 OF in fantasy

12:29

Comment From jim
At what position do you see Mookie Betts once his first contract runs out?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: CF. It’s unlikely he moves back to IF after a significant amount of time passes

12:29

Comment From Brendan
Jesse Hahn or RA Dickey this year?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Dickey

12:30

Comment From Mooking for Love
What’s shakin Szymbroni? Riddle me this…Baez makes the major league roster or nah?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, he *does* start the season in the minors

12:30

Comment From Bruce
I keep reading that FB velo stabilizes real quick, so with Zach McAllister seemingly bringing his 2.5mph uptick from when he went to the pen last year, into the rotation this spring, does he have a decent chance to more than a standard 5th starter?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: Possibly. Remember 5th starters are quite bad – I already think he’s better than that.

12:30

Comment From DC
OK to drop Danny Salazar in 12-team mixed?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: 12-team mixed? You gotta.

12:31

Comment From Kamikaze drafter
Correa (Hou) or Giolito (Wsh) most likelly to see the majors this year before June? I realize neither is likely but which and why?

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Correa would have the easier time finding a role, so him

12:31

Comment From Carl S
Do you like your yogurt with fruit on the bottom or mixed up?

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Fruit on the bottom

12:31

Dan Szymborski: I don’t mix it.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: I like to start wiht plain yogurt and have it get consistently more fruity

12:32

Dan Szymborski: Also, meant to save this for lightning round

12:32

Comment From Ace Rothstein
Is Kris Bryant is closer to Thome cicra 2008 than Adam Dunn circa 2010

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

12:32

Comment From rustydude
Dan, you’re still young. You probably have 2 or 3 careers still ahead of you. What do you think your next job will be?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I sure hope not.

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Can’t think of many fields I’d want to be in more than baseball writing. Maybe Scarlett Johansson’s gigolo?

12:33

Comment From jgoggles
I love the Hearthstone angle, so can you tell us who is the Dr Boom of MLB?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: Trout. You can put him anywhere in the lineup at any time.

12:34

Dan Szymborski: I’d say mad scientist because of the value, but I can’t just call him a 2 drop.

12:34

Comment From Clive
Springer or Betts in an OBP league?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: Betts I think.

12:34

Comment From Art Vandelay
Bryce Harper – 9 months younger than Kris Bryant.

12:34

Comment From Kamikaze drafter
Could Bryant be just a little better than say a Springer in his first year? He tore up minors pitching at all levels, but this is the M………..L……….B. Would you say 20 some homers, .250ish sounds about right if called up in late April?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:35

Comment From Eric
I want to side bet my buddy that Micah Johnson will be more valuable in fantasy (6×6, BB) this year than Dee Gordon. How favorable of odds should I make him give me?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: Lord, that’s an aggressive bet. You’d need at least 8-1 or something. I think

12:35

Comment From i am legend
when do teams officially place players on the DL?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: When they have to finalize the roster

12:35

Comment From mtsw
Game 7 of the 1971 World Series is on youtube and I watched the whole thing. I don’t have a question, I just wanted to say that how mindblowing it is that Boog Powell was a professional athlete given how out-of-shape he looked.

12:35

Comment From Sean
Why doesn’t Josh Collmenter get more respect? 2.8 RA9-WAR last year in only 179 IP. He’s essentially a better Chris Young.

12:35

Dan Szymborski: It’s because he’s borning.

12:36

Dan Szymborski: boring

12:36

Comment From Al
Aaron Sanchez & C-Mart – can I expect decent production from both at the tail end of my fantasy rotation?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: I think unless very deep leagues, it’s hard to carry them. Though I’d hold off on cutting Martinez until we see how quickly Garcia is out for thet season

12:37

Comment From Guest
wait last year Maikel Franco had a wRC+ of 6!??? Had to do a double-take on everything I knew and for a split second wonder if maybe 0 is the baseline of wRC.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Voros’s Law.

12:37

Comment From Sean
Would you consider doing another Guess The Song chat? I remember one two summers ago that was really really fun.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: At some point I’ll do one

12:37

Comment From … So WrestleMania was pretty sweet, huh?
ZiPS has Javier Baez making more contact this season, but he’s had a poor spring. Should we still be hopeful Baez can walk more and strike out a LITTLE less?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: Not until he’s actually hitting well. Gotta be bear market right now

12:38

Comment From david
You trust Smyly’s shoulder this year? How many quality innings does he pitch this year? Thanks Dan.

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be just fine quality-wise, but I’m worried about pitchers *without* obvious injuries, so I’m terrified of pitchers that have unresolved shoulder issues

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he says it’s feeling better, but I’m not going to stop holding my breath until he makes it a month with no isssues

12:39

Comment From mtsw
How would you solve the Orioles bullpen logjam? Do they manage to keep either or both Rule 5 guys?

12:40

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to justify either on a contending team

12:40

Dan Szymborski: For the logjam, I think some kind of trade is going to *have to* happen

12:41

Comment From Bob
Okay, if the game would be worse with 5 more players, who would screw it up the most? /watches the Phillies fill their 5 slots with mascots

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Oh, the Phillies

12:41

Comment From RotoLando
Who baldo? Ubaldo.

12:41

Comment From Jeff
A Choco Taco is a sandwich. I don’t have a question, just an observation.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: tacos aren’t sandwiches, so choco tacos aren’t sandwiches

12:42

Comment From Ran
What do you play – traditional roto, ottoneu classic, fangraphs points, or perhaps some other hybrid?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: generally 5×5 roto.

12:42

Comment From Jimmy
I have a combo of A-gon & Hosmer (1b & DH) – doable in a 16-team auction league?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I understand

12:42

Comment From JP
Hey! Just finished my draft yesterday and built a staff of, with the exception of B McCarthy, young, upside arms on the cheap. 10 team mixed so there are streaming options aplenty. There are still some good upside guys left on the wire. Would you roster any of the following off the wire over B. McCarthy or N Eovaldi? Paxton, C. Martinez, Desclafani, Bauer, House, Pomeranz? Thank a lot.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Paxton, Martinez based on Garcia’s progress.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: Bauer has upside

12:43

Comment From rustydude
Earlier comment by a guy who is older than Bryce Harper but still feels like a “young” college student.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: Ah

12:43

Comment From mtsw
If baseball was never invented, what percentage of current major leaguers would be playing a different sport professionally?

12:43

Dan Szymborski: 30?

12:43

Comment From L. Scott
Are you sold on Soler? How would you value him compared to Kemp or Cespedes?

12:43

Dan Szymborski: I’d put him about even with Kemp and below Cespedes.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: Unless Kemp can figure out how to field his position of course

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I’m comfortable with calling Soler league-averageish, though you can’t forget he hasn’t played a full year

12:45

Comment From creepy guy
18 is my lower and upper bound for “young”

12:45

Comment From Dave
The narrative seems to be that the Reds can only compete if Votto and Bruce hit like their old selves but considering injuries clearly caused their lack of production last year is it really such a stretch to see them bouncing back this year?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: No, but the underlying problems the Reds have still remain.

12:45

Comment From Christian
Would you rather have J.A. Happ or Roenias Elias in your rotation at this point?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Probably Elias and that’s more a statement on what I think about Happ

12:46

Comment From AA
Devon Travis has to be the opening day 2B for the Jays?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced Travis is ready for majors, but he’s still the closest thing the Blue Jays have to a competent 2B

12:46

Comment From Guest
is there any way we can be better with mechanical changes? Are there commentators who have repeatable success in their predictions that a given player’s mechanical change means something? Seems like every year there’s articles about so-and-so having fixed mechanics/being healthier, and some amount of the time that must matter.

12:47

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t researched mechanical predictions. It’s the kind of thing that’s hard to put into a dummy variable, like Tommy John surgery or knuckleballer

12:47

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps someone smarter than me can think of a workable approach

12:48

Comment From david
You seem Billy Burns making the A’s and starting for the first couple of weeks while Crisp is out? does he provide enough value to stay up?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get some SB, but not all that exciting otherwise

12:48

Dan Szymborski: He’s not someone the A’s are necessarily going to feel obligated to find room for

12:48

Comment From mtsw
If the Red Sox finish last in the AL East again, is their front office in danger of getting canned after all the money they’ve tossed around in the offseason?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Depends how poorly they finish. A sub-70 win season might doom them. I don’t think they’re going to be bad though

12:49

Comment From rustydude
Who is Pompey? Never heard of him. Why is he being grouped with Bryant and Joc?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: You should have, though I agree he’s not on their level

12:50

Comment From KHitt
Why are teams allowed to move fence depth?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s no rule against it as a basic concept?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like they’re moving them between at-bats. MLB has a long, long history of irregular fields.

12:50

Comment From James
I just wish the Blue Jays had Cesar Izturis instead of Maicer so I could chuckle about Caesar and Pompey all season

12:50

Dan Szymborski: If your wishes could make Cesar Izturis play 2B, Canadians would probably bomb your house and nobody would blame them

12:50

Comment From Small sample size
Over/under for number of times your answer in April is simply “April.” Over/under 40

12:51

Dan Szymborski: About 40 is right.

12:51

Comment From mtsw
JJ Hardy apparently has some left shoulder soreness and may have to start the year on the DL. Think we might get to see Machado at SS if he’s out or has that ship sailed?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: If it was a long-term situation, I think they would, but not for a short-term, I don’t think

12:52

Comment From L. Scott
Your thoughts on R. Iglesias?

12:53

Dan Szymborski: I think realistically Iglesias should start in the minors while they figure out just how good he is

12:53

Comment From Guest
Had log in difficulties w Yahoo and over the first five rounds autodraft got me Hanley, JUpton, and Springer (in addition to two keepers) — the duds left at the top of the default rankings that no one else was wasting early picks on. Will any of them be worth that draft position?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: Assuming this is a ZiPS question, ZiPS has them ranked overall in fantasy at 24, 92, and 37 respectively

12:54

Comment From Randy
Projected standings show the Angels at 54-108 — that has to be a glitch in system, right? Doesn’t that make all the other projections wrong as well?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: That sounds like a glitch

12:55

Dan Szymborski: My most recent ZiPS run had Angels averaging 84 wins and I doubt the Cross Gang has the Angels at 24-138.

12:55

Comment From Guest
Plain greek yogurt or gtfo

12:55

Comment From Guest
You don’t mix yogurt? You crazy for that one Szym.

12:55

Comment From Clease
If Bryant ends up being the best hitter in all of spring training, is it really justifyable to send him down? how can best hitter not outweigh imperfect deffense?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: It’s justifiable from a roster contstruction standpoint – You *do* want that extra year if you can swing it

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Now, I had a really stupid argument with a few people on Twitter last week

12:56

Dan Szymborski: That were trying to tell me that Kris Bryant may simply not be one of the Cubs best 25 players

12:56

Dan Szymborski: There are at least some reasons you could send him down (work in OF, etc) but if you dont’ think he’s one of their best 25 players overall right now, you’re a frigging idiot.

12:57

Dan Szymborski: One guy tried to tell me that there was no difference between Bryant and Olt.

12:57

Comment From Mooking for Love
Do you have any recommendations for controlling my one-week-til-baseball-excitement that involve keeping my pants on and remaining at least a semi-productive member of society?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Don’t look at me – my career is based on me not wanting to have to wear pants too often.

12:58

Comment From mtsw
Explain why baseball is more popular than ever yet no longer generates stars whose celebrity transcends the game. A-Rod seems like the only active player who non-fans would recognize.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: MLB is absolutely hapless at marketing the good things about baseball

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Baseball succeeds despite MLB’s brass

12:58

Comment From Dallas
If Uribe doesn’t hit well for first couple of months could you see Guerrero stepping in? Or Olivera or Turner more likely? Hard to see the Dodgers sticking w Uribe with all that talent on the roster

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely. Guerrero has dibs

12:58

Comment From AVoidiam
Why are the O’s even considering putting Gausman in the pen? Gonzalez and Ubaldo are way worse rotation options.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: TENURE~!

12:58

Comment From Matt
what stat is easiest to project accurately for hitters?

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Strikeouts

12:58

Comment From EW
Does Zips account for park factors? And handedness park factors?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Of course. Conservatively

12:59

Comment From Maxamuz
Danny Duffy had a decent year last year, is another year removed from TJS, do you see his K/9 increasing into the mid 8 to lower 9s? Can he sustain a ERA of under 3.3?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: He’ll pitch a full year, but he’s unlikely to sustain an ERA under 3.3

12:59

Comment From mtsw
Delmon Young appears to be in the best shape of his life. Does he have potential to be a below-average rather than atrocious outfielder at this point in his career?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I would not want to tempt fate.

12:59

Comment From KHitt
Mets just acquired Alex Torres

1:00	Comment From S What important programming languages should I learn if I want to get into stats?

1:00	Dan Szymborski: You should know your relational databases. R. Python.

1:00	Dan Szymborski: I of course know none of these well.

1:00	Comment From rustydude The most over drafted pitchers in my league, yr after yr, are A’s starters who are just entering the rotation. I never bite, and I have had good success without A’s starters, Sonny Gray notwithstanding. Should I make an exception for Graverman [sic] this year?

1:00	Dan Szymborski: I would not.

1:01	Comment From Arizona What are we going to do with Yasmany Tomas?

1:01	Dan Szymborski: Wait and see. It’s not like Arizona’s in a position at which they need to decide what Tomas is before April 2015.

1:01	Comment From DatOtter Heroes of the Storm – you play it yet? If so – how do you like it? If not – you need a beta key?

1:01	Dan Szymborski: I could totally use a beta key!

1:02	Dan Szymborski: Email me and I will totally be your best friend.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: (email’s in my twitter profile)

1:02	Comment From RotoLando What would you replace sunflower seeds with for maximum comedic value in bench snack choice?

1:02	Dan Szymborski: Turkey legs.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: It’d be awesome to see a whole bullpen eating giant turkey legs like they’re at a ren fair

1:02	Comment From Guest I have vague memories of my dad telling me about a team that would wheel a huge fan out to put behind the outfield wall and blow toward home plate when the other team was batting. No idea if this is a true story, but I like to think it is.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe it is, but it should be a real story

1:03	Dan Szymborski: OK, time for the LIGHTNING ROUND

1:04	Dan Szymborski: ANy questions that are asked before 1:10 PM (will use the timestamp) have to be answered by me, with the usual exceptions.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: AND GO

1:04	Dan Szymborski: (And they have to be off-topic)

1:04	Comment From the underfaker dan! how bad did the undertaker look last night? or did he look spry?

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Not as bad as I expected honestly. It wasn’t a great match, but it was better than it had any right to be

1:04	Comment From James The Wrestlemania livetweeting was fantastic last night. The unfollowers probably wanted Rusev to win

1:05	Dan Szymborski: I dont’ miss the unfollowers. Most writers when they go off-topic do it on divisive stuff like politics

1:05	Comment From greg Overall grade on wrestlemania?

1:05	Dan Szymborski: B-. The main event paid for a lot of sins

1:05	Comment From zurzles would you draft seth rollins at #2 now? (suplex city still obv #1)

1:05	Dan Szymborski: SUPLEX CITY BITCH

1:05	Dan Szymborski: (I can say that as it’s a quote!)

1:05	Comment From zurzles seriously, how not totally crappy was mania? it was not totally crappy. people are going a bit nuts because of the low expectations but i’m happy to say it wasn’t totally crappy.

1:05	Dan Szymborski: About how I feel

1:05	Comment From Aaron W. Can we please discuss WrestleMania so you can further alienate your Twitter followers?

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Sure!

1:05	Comment From Boozehound Had any good beers lately?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Haven’t drunk much lately – have weddings to go to this year and I want my beer belly to be reduced enough to fit in my tailored suits

1:06	Comment From Mooking for Love I just ate like half a pound of asparagus. Look out, bathroom.

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Asparagus always seems like one of those things you shouldn’t be eating

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Like some kids bet other kids he could eat a tree

1:06	Comment From Art Vandelay Are you an in-game music player? Or do you like to play your own tunes when you game? Do you have a favorite gaming album?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Depends on the game – if the game’s music is an integral part of the experience I will play in-game music, if not, not.

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Like I’ll play music during Crusader Kings II but not during Bioshock Infinite.

1:07	Dan Szymborski: And too many games have Official Soundtracks that you can’t change which pisses me off

1:07	Comment From B Best/Worst from ‘Mania last night? Best: Main Event (Last five minutes even before Rollins showed up was great). Worst: Cena over Rusev (Why???)

1:08	Dan Szymborski: The HHH/Sting stuff just felt pointless.

1:08	Dan Szymborski: And then they kinda undersold it later – HHH supposedly had the beating of his life that he barely came out on top and…he’s all fine 40 minutes later for the 30 minutes of filler?

1:08	Comment From Guest Noodle arms: your players always have a snack at hand

1:08	Comment From L. Scott Lightning round!! Would you prefer regular or chocolate whipped cream smeared in your face if you hit a game winner in whiffle ball?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: Regular. All that chocolate would stain

1:08	Comment From Guest that’s like straight jelly on the bottom

1:08	Dan Szymborski: hardcore people can stand it

1:09	Comment From Guest do you like a banana

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Sure

1:09	Comment From Guest should we try to contact aliens or hide from them?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Hide.

1:09	Comment From Art Vandelay Did you ever play BG2 or Planescape: Torment? I played Pillars of Eternity basically all day yesterday, I think I’m in love. It’s like a perfect piece of fanservice, and also a great (though buggy) game.

1:09	Dan Szymborski: None of these yet!

1:10	Comment From Guest did you know you have your own wikipedia article?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it’s hilariously outdated.

1:10	Dan Szymborski: I’m apparently notable enough to get an article, but not notable enough for anyone to give a crap enough to update it once a decade.

1:10	Comment From Sean Do you like Arizona’s strategy of collecting as many high-upside (albeit, command issues) SPs as they could?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Makes sense

1:10	Comment From Guest “Boycotting indiana”: a perfectly respectable private-sector response to a state law implicitly allowing discrimination against a certain class of people, or disrespectful of the people of Indiana’s freedom to engage with whom they care to engage

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Boycotts are perfectly respectable private-sector response.

1:11	Dan Szymborski: I support someone’s freedom to be a giant douchebag, but I don’t have to respect your opinion – I’m just not going to force you to not be a giant douchebag

1:11	Comment From KHitt Kris Bryant sent to minor league camp

1:11	Comment From Clive Wha?? What do you write ZIPS in?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Massive excel files with additional plugins.

1:11	Comment From Robert Bryant and Baez were just officially sent to AAA.

1:11	Comment From Kendall Graveman Hype Train (Choo Choo!) Cubs officially demote both Bryant and Baez

1:12	Comment From Bob I have ZiPS saved on my work desktop as “Financials Q1 2015”

1:12	Comment From mtsw Why does the internet’s rampant enthusiasm for ending tipping as a method of employee compensation seem not to extend to anyone who makes a living off of tips?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: I always tip well. People gotta be decent.

1:12	Comment From Hipster Beard So you like Dogfish Head 60 Minute, eh? Ever tried Evolution Lot 3 or Burley Oak Bulletproof Tiger?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Yes, no no

1:12	Comment From Sean Favorite part of the cow to eat

1:12	Dan Szymborski: the insides.

1:12	Comment From Kendall Graveman Hype Train (Choo Choo!) Pie / Coffee / Ice cream. Make your picks.

1:13	Dan Szymborski: Pork, none, pistachio

1:13	Comment From James How high was your bald eagle soaring when John Cena won last night?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: It captured 10 trout and then pooped on a terrorist.

1:13	Comment From RotoLando I would like to see a turkey leg sticking out of an entire infield’s back pocket. Make it happen.

1:13	Comment From rustydude Off topic? What’s your mother in law’s middle name?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: I’m not married

1:13	Comment From Sean Isn’t this really the enLIGHTNING round (see what I did there?)?

1:13	Comment From Dallas Puig and Rousey = next power couple

1:13	Comment From Sean what kind of lightning is best

1:13	Dan Szymborski: Electrical

1:13	Dan Szymborski: Fudge lightning would be delicious but I haven’t seen any

1:13	Comment From Phillies113 Rhinos vs Hippos. WHO YOU GOT

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Hippos.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Who would play Ravishing Ravishing Rhinos?

1:14	Comment From mtsw is there a method to Nintendo’s business strategy madness or are they just an incompetently run company?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Always hard to tell

1:14	Comment From Mooking for Love “Ace Ventura: Betts Detective” HOW’S THAT FOR A FANTASY TEAM NAME SUCKAAASSSS?!

1:14	Comment From Bob Utley or Odor!?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Odor

1:14	Comment From Phil Do you also need an any key? You never really can continue without it.

1:14	Comment From mtsw if you were a GM where would you want your office located? Guts of the stadium, a la Billy Beane in moneyball? Luxury box level, a la George Costanza? Camden Yards warehouse?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Underground bunker accessed by a secret door

1:14	Comment From L. Scott Have you seen Van Halen since David Lee Roth returned in 2007? They are touring again this summer!!!

1:14	Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:14	Comment From Guest have you ever considered saving the fruit from teh bottom of each yogurt jar and then using it all to make a filling for a cake later

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Seems a little lazy

1:15	Comment From Guest i unfollowed you long ago for some boneheaded political rant, should i refollow you?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Really? I talk almost zero politics on twitter

1:15	Comment From mtsw are people who complain about politics but dont vote worse than people who have strong opinions on sports they never watch?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Not exercising a right is a perfectly reasonable statement.

1:15	Comment From Dallas Over/under 2 1/2 on the amount of Pumpkin pies Mel Kiper eats per day

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Not enough information

1:15	Comment From Guest why does fangraphs have a west coast bias

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Not sure, but it’s probably cistulli’s fault somehow

1:15	Comment From davels peanut butter… smooth or crunchy?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Crunchy

1:15	Comment From mtsw Whats your opinion on Globetrotters-style show basketball?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Don’t have one

1:16	Comment From RotoLando Club foot or hare lip?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Club Foot

1:16	Comment From Cain Marko perfect dark or goldeneye?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: goldeneye

1:16	Comment From Bryan Have you ever made legend in Hearthstone? I’ve noticed every month I get further and further before I hit the wall. Right now I’m at rank 2 and just can’t get over a 50% win rate.

1:16	Dan Szymborski: I have not yet. I have maxed at 3. I dont’ think I play enough – I’ve never played 100 games in a month. I watch too much.

1:16	Comment From Guest how do people with mobility issues get out of a tall building in case of fire?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Series of high-rise waterslides if I get my way

1:16	Comment From rustydude Who would be your winner of a 64 match bracket of Vice Presidential duels (excepting Aaron Burr)?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Calhoun would creep the @%#% out of everyone. Have you seen him?

1:17	Comment From mtsw Should I ditch the 7 year old 32inch LCD TV I use as a second monitor and replace it with a legit computer monitor?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Not if it’s a second monitor

1:17	Comment From L. Scott Which movie are you more looking forward to: the new star wars, the new terminator, the new superman/batman, or the new avengers?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: star wars

1:17	Comment From Michael Is it possible you only dislike asparagus because you Americans have no clue how to cook it properly? 😛

1:18	Comment From Guest is fernet branca the best apertif or merely a top 1 apertif?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Oh yes, it’s possible.

1:18	Dan Szymborski: I have a soft spot for Campari

1:18	Comment From Art Vandelay Thoughts on Daniel Bryan’s acceptance speech?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: It was cool

1:18	Comment From rustydude If you had to lay down money on a non-Kentucky participant who would it be?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: An earthquake

1:18	Comment From mtsw Which rule change from “Super Baseball 2020” would be the most practically beneficial if introduced into real baseball?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: You can replace broken robots for only 10K

1:18	Comment From Dallas Who wouldn’t want a player on their team simply known as Box

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Someone with a better idea?

1:18	Comment From Guest Does it make me cool or uncool that I spent all weekend playing Civ V, and if the latter what answer should I make up in response to “what did you do this weekend?” to tell my coworkers

1:19	Dan Szymborski: It’s OK, though it does seem a very 2013 thing to do

1:19	Comment From canofcorn66 Would Schneiderlen solve Arsenal’s holding midfield problem?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: I have no idea what any of those things are

1:19	Comment From Hipster Beard OCMD, good or bad?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: Ocean city? Good

1:19	Comment From EW any stats in MLB that don’t follow normal distribution?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: most of them

1:19	Comment From Michael Should we shoot the aliens or blow them up when we play XCOM?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: follow your heart

1:19	Comment From Guest why not a thunder round?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: thunder is relatively slow i tcan’t keep up with lightning

1:19	Comment From Guest should we resurrect x-files or hide from it?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: hide

1:19	Comment From Andy Every play the Diablo series?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:19	Comment From Guest what if we are the aliens did you ever think of that

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Never considered it. In the context of earth we would not

1:20	Comment From Guest Is ted cruz a legitimate candidate?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: no

1:20	Comment From mtsw Is there a way to justify sending a human to Mars in the near term other than “because its there”

1:20	Dan Szymborski: we can send all the people on a bravo show there to die. Except the top chef people

1:20	Comment From Kendall Graveman Hype Train (Choo Choo!) what’s actually wrong with Indiana though – how can anyone preach tolerance and practice bigotry on the state level?

1:21	Dan Szymborski: I see it as a neutral stance.

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Bigoted cake makers are best combated with public humiliation, not an iron fist.

1:21	Comment From RotoLando Do you like pun names for your fantasy teams?

1:21	Dan Szymborski: I’m lazy, I tend to use Dan’s macabre

1:21	Comment From Bryan I actually know my mother in law’s maiden name. It’s Gay.

1:21	Comment From rustydude even tripe?

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Tripe’s not bad on pho

1:21	Comment From Timothy Your thoughts on the monstrosity that is mech mage?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: It’s strength is overrated, it’s not like undertaker-era cancer hunter

1:22	Comment From RotoLando Who is the most average ZIPS player ever? In other words, who is Luke Wilson in ZIPS’ Idiocracy?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: Guthrie

1:22	Dan Szymborski: And so concludes the Lightning Round

1:22	Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to stop for another week.

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me as always! You can read my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. And if you like nerdy game stuff, twitch.tv/zimsmash!

1:23	Comment From Bryan Midrange paladin destroys mech mage. I think destroying mages is a big reason I’m at rank 2 and didn’t quit at rank 5 like I usually do.

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Yes, mech mage has counters.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: And in the future, may consider making Lightning Round non-politics. Or perhaps simply answer things with “I’m a libertarian.”

1:24	Dan Szymborski: GOOD DAY EVERYONE!

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re a terrorist or something in which case I’d prefer you not have a great day.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/30/15