What Happened to Clayton Kershaw?

Clayton Kershaw seems like a virtual lock to win the 2014 National League Most Valuable Player award. Even though he missed a handful of starts at the beginning of the year, he more than made up for that over the remainder, and below, observe a plot of how Kershaw has distributed his runs allowed.

Kershaw’s made 28 starts, and in seven of them, he didn’t allow a run. In another ten, he allowed but a single run, so you can see why Kershaw’s MVP case has so much support. But I should note that Kershaw made 27 regular-season starts, and he’s made one postseason start. The postseason start is included in the plot above, and it’s something that kind of needs to be explained.

In Game 1 of the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Cardinals, Kershaw was provided with a 6-1 lead. He left a 7-6 deficit, and shortly thereafter he was charged with run number eight. You already understand that the game was insane. Many of you might’ve already moved past the game, given that Game 2 was differently dramatic. But Clayton Kershaw allowed eight runs. I don’t think there’s ever a bad time to try to figure out how something like that can happen. We already tried to figure out how he allowed seven runs to the Diamondbacks. What happened to Kershaw, and more specifically, what happened during his meltdown seventh inning, which he started up 6-2?

A popular theory caught immediate fire: the Cardinals had something on Kershaw, and his signs. Basically, there’s a thought that Kershaw was tipping his pitches, giving the Cardinals the advantage of knowing what would be on the way. It’s a common explanation whenever a good pitcher gets bad results, or at least, it’s a common proposed explanation, but seldom is it supported. In this case, some players and former players believe it, and others do not. I don’t know. I’m always skeptical, but I don’t know for sure. I don’t know what the Cardinals were seeing and relaying to one another, if anything. I think, though, there’s a simpler explanation. I think Kershaw didn’t execute, and I think the Cardinals did. It’s boring, but it’s usually what works, and it’s what my eyes are telling me. Let’s go through that seventh inning at-bat by at-bat, so I can try to explain where I’m coming from.

Plate Appearance No. 1

• Matt Holliday
• Single

As Kershaw began the inning, he’d thrown just 81 pitches, so while conditions were extremely, uncomfortably hot, I don’t think there was much thought yet that Kershaw was getting fatigued. And in this plate appearance, Kershaw mostly did what he wanted. The first time he saw Holliday, he worked him up high before getting rid of him with a low slider. The next time, he began with a slider and a curveball, before getting rid of him with another curve. In the seventh, Kershaw started Holliday with a fastball down and in, but it just missed the corner. Back he came with a slider, but it missed away. So Kershaw threw a fastball for a strike, then he tried to go down and in again, but again he missed the corner to run the count to 3-and-1. For the third time in the plate appearance, Kershaw threw a fastball down and in, but this one was closer to the zone, and Holliday loves the low fastball. That’s his sweet spot, and in a 3-and-1 count, Holliday could look for the pitch that he wanted.

The particular pitch is the pitch Kershaw wanted to throw. Yet Holliday had already seen the pitch, and the count was in his favor, because Kershaw had barely missed with the previous two similar pitches. So, all right: leadoff baserunner.

Plate Appearance No. 2

• Jhonny Peralta
• Single

We know that Kershaw is aggressive with his fastball early. We know that hitters know that, as well. His first time up, Peralta swung at a first-pitch fastball in the zone. His next time up, Peralta didn’t swing until he saw a fastball in the zone. In the seventh, Kershaw missed up high with a first-pitch fastball. Back he came with another fastball, and Peralta was ready for it.

Based on A.J. Ellis, the pitch was supposed to be similar to the pitch thrown to Holliday. But not only did the fastball stay up — it was also over the middle of the plate, and Peralta was able to drive it. This one’s simple. Grooved fastball in a hitter-friendly count. The Dodgers can’t be afraid of hitters swinging at Kershaw’s fastball, because God knows he’s been amazing all season, but this was, at least, a location mistake, and maybe the situation would’ve called for a curveball.

Plate Appearance No. 3

• Yadier Molina
• Single

Molina took the first pitch in his first plate appearance, and fell behind. He took the first pitch in his second plate appearance, and fell behind. Both of those first pitches were fastballs. In the seventh, Molina wanted to be more aggressive early. Ellis and Kershaw might’ve sensed that, so this time Ellis signaled for a first-pitch breaking ball, to throw Molina off. But the breaking ball was a slider at 88, and it hung up, settling thigh-high over the fat part of the plate.

The pitch, again, seems like it was supposed to be more down and in, but it stayed in a hittable area, and the speed differential between Kershaw’s slider and fastball isn’t such that Kershaw could expect this to work due to timing alone. If Molina’s gearing up for first-pitch heat at 93, he can hit 88 as long as it’s sufficiently elevated. Molina sent the pitch right back up the middle.

Plate Appearance No. 4

• Matt Adams
• Single

There was a fun fact I saw on Twitter that Kershaw nearly went the whole season without pitching with the bases loaded. The Cardinals got him into such a state, but Kershaw, at least, would be facing a lefty. For the third time, Adams was started off with a fastball, but this one, unlike the previous two, caught the edge for a strike. The next pitch was a fastball for a swinging strike, but there was also a hint of mediocre execution:

Adams swung through a fastball at the letters, but Ellis seems to have wanted a fastball at the shins. Maybe this was the plan all along. Or maybe this just functions as more evidence that pitchers get away with mistakes all the time. Anyway, Kershaw was ahead 0-and-2. On the year, in 0-and-2 counts against lefties, Kershaw threw breaking balls two-thirds of the time, so here he tried to sneak a fastball by Adams, but the pitch missed down and away. Still, Kershaw was ahead, so he dropped a slider low and away.

You can argue this in two different directions. Here’s how the previous at-bat had ended:

In the fifth, Kershaw put Adams away with an identical 1-and-2 slider. So that had worked for him before. But in that same fifth-inning at-bat, Kershaw threw Adams three low-away sliders, getting two whiffs and a foul. Adams, then, very possibly would’ve been looking for the pitch, preparing to hit a breaking ball down and away from him. That’s why the fastball, at 0-and-2, was a good idea. The slider didn’t work, and Adams served the ball past second base.

Plate Appearance No. 5

• Pete Kozma
• Strikeout

For Kershaw, it was a disaster inning that also included a pair of three-pitch strikeouts. Kozma doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart, but Kershaw still needed a plan. In the fifth, Kozma fouled off a high first-pitch fastball. In the seventh, he looked for the same thing, and again he fouled off a high first-pitch fastball. Kershaw came back by jamming Kozma on the inner edge, and then Kozma was behind 0-and-2. He would’ve been looking for a slider, so Kershaw and Ellis executed the pitch they wanted to execute at 0-and-2 against Adams.

The pitch was perfect, and Kozma wasn’t ready for fastball velocity. While it was just Pete Kozma, that pitch would’ve encouraged Don Mattingly that Kershaw still had gas in the tank.

Plate Appearance No. 6

• Jon Jay
• Single

The Cardinals were looking to swing early, trying to get to Kershaw before the softer stuff. In his two previous trips, Jay had swung at every fastball in the zone, and laid off every fastball out of the zone. In the seventh, Kershaw started Jay with a fastball up, and Jay fouled it off to fall behind. That led to a critical pitch: Kershaw’s first curveball of the inning.

There was no way Jay was going to swing at it. The pitch was certain to be taken, and Kershaw did well to locate it where he did. The pitch should’ve been called a strike, but Ellis didn’t do a great job of selling it, and the umpire didn’t do a great job of seeing it, so where Kershaw should’ve been ahead 0-and-2, he was instead even at 1-and-1. So he tried to come back with a fastball down and away, and instead he threw a heater at the belt.

Jay did a perfect job of taking what he’d been given. He did the only thing you can do with that pitch, if you’re Jon Jay: slap it the other way, toward the hole. A low fastball became a high fastball, and a high fastball became an RBI single.

Plate Appearance No. 7

• Oscar Taveras
• Strikeout

At this point, the Dodger bullpen was stirring. Mattingly would’ve been looking for indications that Kershaw was or was not good to remain in the game. On the one hand, he’s a starting pitcher with an elevated pitch count; on the other hand, he’s the best starting pitcher in the world. What Kershaw delivered was a picture-perfect three-pitch sequence. That same sequence earned Kershaw a longer leash. That longer leash wound up putting the Dodgers behind. In that way, it was a good thing and a bad thing that Kershaw disposed of Taveras with such ease.

The first pitch was a fastball, somewhat predictably, but it was a fastball perfectly located on the outer edge, and Taveras was unlikely to swing right away after coming off the bench cold. Even as a starter, Taveras doesn’t swing at the first pitch very often. So Kershaw was ahead, and then he threw a quality slider below the zone that Taveras couldn’t lay off of. And 0-and-2 brought another slider, also executed well.

The log makes it look like Taveras had a pathetic at-bat against a pitcher on the ropes. In reality, Taveras didn’t have a chance. He was pinch-hitting, and then he saw a perfect fastball and consecutive perfect sliders from a same-handed pitcher who’s going to win major hardware in a month. Mattingly said later that, because Kershaw got Taveras, he was going to get the next guy. So Kershaw stayed in, coming a strike away from surviving with a lead.

Plate Appearance No. 8

• Matt Carpenter
• Double

There are some things to understand about Matt Carpenter. On the year, he posted one of the very lowest first-pitch swing rates in baseball. He’s also a tremendous contact hitter, with an unbelievable eye, and he does the bulk of his damage against pitches middle or middle-in. Carpenter ordinarily doesn’t like to swing at pitches away from him, because those aren’t pitches he’s so capable of hitting hard. He’s a thoughtful hitter who’s always got a strategy.

Leading off the game, Carpenter took a first-pitch fastball for a strike. His next time up, he took a first-pitch fastball for a strike. His next time up, he was ready for first-pitch heat, and went yard:

So, seventh inning, two outs, bases loaded. Another first-pitch fastball, four out of four. But this one was on the outer part of the plate, and Carpenter fouled it off. Kershaw came back with an identical pitch, and this one Carpenter tipped back into Ellis’ glove to fall behind 0-and-2. Plenty would’ve been running through Carpenter’s head, and Kershaw elected to once more try the 0-and-2 fastball down and away. He pitched away, but the ball stayed up, and Carpenter fouled it off to stay alive. Since the 0-and-2 fastball didn’t work, Kershaw and Ellis went to the breaking stuff.

Good idea, but it didn’t work. The first slider was bounced in the dirt. Too low for Carpenter to offer. The next slider missed way up high, as Kershaw let it go too early. Carpenter then would’ve been looking for a different pitch, and Kershaw threw a fastball in the same location as the previous fastballs, thigh-high and over the outer bit of the zone. Carpenter fouled the ball again. So, another difficult decision at 2-and-2. Kershaw’s sliders in the at-bat hadn’t worked, but maybe that meant Carpenter wouldn’t expect a third slider. The signal was given for a third slider, down and away.

This slider was pretty good, but it was just in enough, and just up enough, that Carpenter made contact to stay alive again. It was similar to the slider that Adams had hit up the middle. Carpenter is more able than most to put bat on ball, even if just so as to see another pitch in the sequence. The signal: fastball. It was Kershaw’s last pitch of the day.

A fastball that was supposed to be low and away wound up elevated, over the inner half. It was remarkably similar to the fastball that Carpenter had taken deep just the inning before.

With two strikes, Carpenter was prepared to swing. He has good enough discipline that he can recognize and turn on hittable pitches, if he gets them. Kershaw made a location mistake, and it led to the biggest hit of the ballgame. Through the plate appearance, Kershaw had been able to keep his heat to Carpenter outside. The one time the fastball leaked over the middle, Carpenter knocked it off the wall.

Tipping pitches? It doesn’t seem like tipping pitches. It seemed like some good swings and some missed locations. Kershaw also threw a lot of fastballs early in counts, but he’s done that all season. That’s one form of tipping pitches, I suppose, but it’s not unique to this ballgame. It’s not like, in the seventh inning, the Cardinals refused to swing at Kershaw’s curveball, or were right on it, because he only threw one curveball. And it was good, even though it was called a ball. The sliders? Some of them were good, some of them were bad. The one to Adams would’ve looked familiar, to Adams, who’d just seen three of the same pitch. Taveras saw two perfect ones, and while you could maybe say Kershaw should’ve thrown more sliders, remember all the game-theory aspects. When hitters are looking for a pitch, it can be helpful to throw a different pitch. Not every slider situation calls for a slider, because you have to mix things up. Kershaw tried a number of 0-and-2 fastballs, specifically because hitters don’t look for that pitch.

Kershaw made some mistakes. One wonders if he and Ellis made some sequencing mistakes, given that there could’ve been more timing-disrupting curveballs. The Cardinals, certainly, came through with a number of quality swings. Kershaw still could’ve gotten out of the inning. He was ahead of Carpenter 0-and-2. The way he pitched to Taveras made it seem like he still had good-enough stuff to remain. A few more inches of depth on the last slider to Carpenter, and the Dodgers emerge still ahead. But because the slider stayed up just enough, Carpenter earned another opportunity, and that’s when Kershaw made his biggest mistake. Sometimes the story’s as simple as failed execution. Too many times in the seventh, Kershaw failed to execute. And on enough of those times, the Cardinals’ hitters succeeded with their own execution. You don’t expect this to happen to a pitcher like Kershaw, but it happened on May 17. The next time out, Kershaw threw six shutout innings. The game makes failures out of everybody. Sometimes even Clayton Kershaw.