What the Washington Nationals Should Do
We’re kicking off a new series here at FanGraphs, where we’ll profile what each team should do as we head towards the July 31st trading deadline. R.J. starts us off with a look at the Nationals.
Overview
With the arrival of baseball’s Jesus Shuttlesworth and the ability to take on payroll (both in the short- and long-term) Mike Rizzo and the rest of the front office might be tempted to make a splash. After all, despite injury carnage to their pitching ranks, the Nationals were still in the midst of the divisional race through most of May before falling to the cellar in the past few weeks.
Buy or Sell?
Realistically, the Nationals are at least a year away from competing with the Phillies and Braves. Making a big deadline deal would be aimed towards public relation and posterity’s sake. That makes selling more likely.
The Nationals rotation currently features Livan Hernandez, J.D. Martin, John Lannan, Luis Atilano, and yes, Stephen Strasburg. Injuries have decimated a previously potential-packed unit. Jason Marquis won’t return for a few more weeks; Jordan Zimmerman, who underwent Tommy John surgery, might return later in the season; same with Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery), Scott Olsen (shoulder inflammation), Garret Mock (cervical spine surgery), and Ross Detwiler (torn hip cartilage).
With that kind of depth soon returning, it could be ideal for the Nats to attempt and cash in a few of their current starters with limited upside. The problem is, well, they aren’t very good. Livan Hernandez is the most notable thanks to his 2.22 ERA although his peripherals suggest he’s a house of cards. Atilano and Lannan have the same issues of Craig Stammen. None of them can strike batters out and as a result they walk more batters than they should. Stammen had a 1.94 K/BB ratio upon demotion which looks overqualified next to Atilano’s 1.00 and Lannan’s 0.71. The starting pitchers desirable to other teams are equally desirable to the Nationals. Rizzo and company should, however, maneuver a full court press when it comes to moving a reliever or two. It’s not like the Nationals can’t replace the production by sliding a bumped starter into relief anyways.
The Nationals also have an overabundance of utility players too. Cristian Guzman (who had previously only played a non-shortstop position in the 2003 All-Star Game) has taken up second base and right field this year, potentially making him more attractive to suitors if not for an $8 million salary. Willie Harris is cheaper ($1.5 million) and while he’s primarily an outfielder, he has gotten a few starts in at third base and second base in these past two seasons. Adam Kennedy is even less expensive ($1.25 million with a club option worth $2 million or a half million buyout) and has played every position but catcher over his 12 seasons. The Nationals have no shortage of utility men in the minors either, with Eric Bruntlett, Pete Orr, and Luis Ordaz a phone call, meal ticket, and coach seat on the fastest moving missile away.
Even with the odd rumors of a potential extension, Adam Dunn is in the final year of his contract and could prove worthwhile to a team in need of a bat. The problem is that Dunn has never been willing to become a designated hitter, which lowers his value and could limit the potential destinations. Josh Willingham is also intriguing, although the Nats may as well hold onto him.
The Farm
Top catching prospect Derek Norris is still a while away, but his presence along with Ivan Rodriguez’s multiple year contract and Jesus Flores – if he ever returns – mean a catcher isn’t necessary. Double-A Harrisburg features two of the team’s top infield prospects in Danny Espinosa and Chris Marrero. Neither is raking at the moment. Most of the team’s top outfield talent is in the lower minors meaning acquiring an outfielder to plug in alongside Nyjer Morgan and Willingham could be an option. Their aforementioned pitching depth is mostly contained to the upper minors as well. The Nats really need impact talent, just like most teams without contention status. None of their pieces will bring that back, so depth with traces of upside should be the focus.
Budget
It’s impossible to say what the payroll ceiling is, but with more than $20 million in contracts due to expire at season’s end it doesn’t seem impossible to expect the Nationals to be able to take on money now and for the future if necessary.
It’d pain me to see him go, but Dunn to TB would net some nice pieces. Although not wanting to DH would be a problem.
don’t you mean 2008 all star game?
Matt Capps and Tyler Clippard might have been better trade chips for them if there weren’t so many teams with middle relief value that they could (and probably should) trade. Still, they might be able to get something decent in return.
i think clippard needs to stay in Washington since he’s under team control. Capps, on the other hand, would probably interest some teams. He’s a decent reliever with a good K/9 with closing experience. There are teams who need help in the bullpen (Yankees, Red Sox, Reds) and Capps could easily be called on for help. The more I think about it the more and more likely Capps will be gone by the trade deadline.
I am a fan of two teams: Red Sox (life-long) and Nats (I was living in DC when they moved there).
As a Nats fan I was very happy when they signed him and literally prayed that he would save a bunch of games early so that they could trade him.
As a Red Sox fan I really hope that they are not the team to get fleeced by the Nats with this guy.
I like Clippard too, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the block because they could potentially get more for him because he is still under team control and is in the midst of a career year.
This all depends, of course, on what the going rate is for a middle reliever this year – which may not be too much.
If they are going to “sell” I think despite their best efforts they’ll be selling pretty low, even on Clippard or Capps because of the market….unless Dunn is willing to DH somewhere (I wouldn’t mind it if the Red Sox got him to DH)
I don’t think they should be “buyers” and honestly think that the idea that they should be is funny.
Don’t forget Capps will be a Type A free agent. Whether they trade him or not, they’ll likely get some value in return for his services.
Lol, thank you for the Jesus Shuttlesworth reference.
Dunn doesn’t have an NTC so he wouldn’t have to particularly enjoy the idea of DHing.
I was thinking that noi one was rooting harder than the nationals for David Ortiz’s demise.
If Ortiz would have continued to struggle, Adam Dunn would likely look very good to them. Big lefty in a short porch field, that walks a lot.
Texas might be a good fit for Dunnkey. He might also be a good 2 month rental for Oakland. Someone has to win that division.
Don’t the Rangers have Vlad? The Yankees are a perfect fit, but I don’t see it happening.
Bruntlett was released on June 2nd.
Dunn and Redsox.. he would DH, sure.. but they wont give up totally on Ortiz, meaning that Dunn would have to field. Therein is the rub. Dunn doesnt fit the “run prevention” that is RedSox atm. And, what would BoSox have to give up in return ?
I strongly doubt that the Nationals will trade Dunn. He’s popular and they have no depth on their farm at 1B. I’m a Nats fan who follow the farm pretty closely and they really aren’t in that strong a position to move toward buyer or seller status. They have an abundance of 4/5 arms that haven’t shown enough to net much of value and they don’t have a lot of big prospects in the upper minors. Trading Dunn creates a new problem at 1B that they would have to address via free agency or trade. Trading Hammer has the same issue.
The move the Nationals should be making is targeting David DeJesus as a RF bridge for all or part of the way to Bryce Harper or Michael Burgess. If they really, really believe in Bryce Harper, there’s a case to be made for resigning Dunn, extending Hammer and including Burgess plus a decent arm (Detwiler or Brad Meyers) to address the RF situation. I think they are deluding themselves that Roger Bernadina is a legitimate left handed bat for RF.
Detwiler made a successful rehab start at Potomac tonight and should be on his way to Harrisburg for about a month of work.
The Nats believe they have enough cost controlled rotation pieces to improve next year:
Strasburg
Jordan Zimmermann
Ross Detwiler
John Lannan
Marquis/Wang/Atilano/Livo/Stammen/Olsen as a 5th starter.
What they really need to do is put more money into the international market and get more aggressive in the draft. Their second round pick seemed too safe, hopefully their aggressive 4th round pick will be signed above slot.
For the most part I agree with your analysis. I’m curious, though, why you think Bernadina won’t pan out. He’s been showing some flashes of really getting it together the past few weeks — both on offense and defense.
I don’t think souldrummer is saying Bernadina won’t pan out. I think he is saying Bernadina is not a right fielder. Bernadina is an incredibly athletic player who could end up ousting Nyjer Morgan in CF. Nyjer is too mistake prone because of his “aggressive play.” Nyjer also is already 30 and I don’t think there is much improvement coming for him.
The way the Nats have tried to be spenders lately, I wonder if they are the landing spot for Jayson Werth.
Agreed with the sentiments on the minor league/farm system, Souldrummer. I think the Nats are in a position to be weak sellers–that is, sell off a few spare parts that will become superfulous should they fall from contention, such as Matt Capps, Adam Kennedy(but holding onto Cristian Guzman ’cause face it–someone needs to play 2B), and perhaps Livan Hernandez.
Of course, I expect nothing more than a bowl of fruit in return for Livan Hernandez. Not rotting fruit, though. Fresh. 😉
I watch them every night. Dunn in LF was an abortion but I think it’s possible that he’s playable at 1B for a few more years. Yes, he still boots some balls, but he’s clearly much more comfortable than he was during the trial last season.
As was mentioned, he’s popular, he’s still productive and he’s affordable. He’s not holding anyone back in the farm system. I’m on board with 2 more years of Donkey at first.
Guzman is a 10/5 guy so could extort something if they try to trade him. That may limit his marketability.
I like the idea of them going after somebody like Alex Rios (or DeJesus mentioned above) to hold down an OF spot for the next 2 to 3 years. The Nats can easily afford the salary, which should lower the price they’d have to shell out in prospects to get him, and he instantly becomes a top-to-middle of the order hitter for them with solid D. The upgrade in RF (whether they put Rios in LF and move Hammer to RF or whatever) over the near-replacement level play they’ve gotten there so far this year would be well worth the cost in salary. It’s also a salary commitment for the next 2 to 3 years that is like poison to most teams but not really a big deal for the Nats.
First, I disagree with the analysis that they should give up anything whatsoever to plug holes in weak spots on offense. For one thing, we have no idea how long Harper will take, but if he’s truly a phenom, it won’t be three years. Heyward was two, a very, very raw Stanton was 2.5. Plus, guys like Rios and DeJesus are out there and with the rest of their rotation being what it is, plugging in one of those two is not going to make them competitive. They desperately need another front of the rotation starter, and expecting Zimmerman to come back and be that guy right away is absurd. He had another couple of years of development to get to that level before the injury. Detwiler is a huge wildcard who should be lumped in with the other fifth starter types. If he exceeds that expectation, go crazy.
If the Nats want to make a splash, sell an absurd number of season ticket packages through 2012, and actually compete for that division, they need to trade all the top talent they have that is not above AA for Grienke. Pair the reigning AL CY Young winner with Strasburg atop that rotation, re-sign Dunn and fill some holes on the FA market this winter. Next year the top three in the rotation are Strasburg, Grienke, Lannan. In the NL 4 and 5 is irrelevant. They can compete in that division with that pitching. Only problem is that Norris (allows them to move Myers to the OF and come quickly), Espinosa (get there same time as Colon, one of them takes 2B), Jo Zimmerman (because Nats don’t have enough talent on the farm for this deal), and a couple meh guys, still probably wouldn’t get it done.
As a Royals fan I’d love to see it because that team is going nowhere till 2013 and getting Norris would allow Myers to come quickly. Myers and Eibner at the OF corners and Espinosa at 2B would be a huge upgrade over what they have now. For the Nats I think the upside is obvious.
To be fair, Dunn according to the numbers has actually been not terrible at fielding this year.
/citing small sample sizes FTW
Starting pitchers throwing high 90’s fastball regularly is more likely to result in injury. A pitcher’s arm is the most mysterious thing in baseball. You never know something’s going to happen, especially 100 pitches with a lot of those fast balls.