What We Learned In Week Seven

Let’s see if we can get through this week without someone making a crack about small sample size.

Maybe we should drug test the third base bag at the Skydome.

Last week, we wrote up Jose Bautista’s power surge in the things we learned in week six. Bautista had been manning third base for the Blue Jays, but has now shifted back to the outfield due to the return of Edwin Encarnacion. After Encarnacion’s week, we may have to begin asking just what kind of magic Toronto has lathered their third base bag with.

In his first week off the DL, Encarnacion managed seven hits in 22 plate appearances. More impressively, six of them left the yard. The Jays have now gotten 17 home runs from their third baseman this year, easily the most in baseball. Their hot corner bats have produced a ridiculous .683 slugging percentage, 90 points ahead of the second place Rays, who have some guy named Evan Longoria playing the position.

The Blue Jays offense was supposed to be pretty miserable, but thanks to some crazy power surges, they’ve managed to keep putting runs on the board. Tune in next week to find out what new marginally useful Toronto player is doing a Babe Ruth impression.

B.J. Upton wants to be like Rickey.

Upton didn’t have a particularly good performance over the last seven days, hitting just .154 in 29 trips to the plate. However, he did do something fairly remarkable – steal five bases despite a paucity of opportunities.

Upton racked up four hits on the week, but one of those was a home run and two were doubles. With just one single and three walks, Upton only earned his way onto first base four times in the whole week. And he still managed five steals.

On May 17th, he walked and stole second. On April 18th, he doubled and stole third. On April 19th, he singled, stole second and then stole third. And on May 22nd, he walked and stole second. Talk about making the most of what you’ve got.

The Twins strike-throwing ways are getting ridiculous.

Everyone knows the Twins have a pitching staff full of guys who just pound the strikezone, but they got even crazier last week. 13 pitchers took the hill for Minnesota in the last seven days, and of those, only Francisco Liriano walked more than one batter. They issued 13 walks in 63 innings pitched, a rate of 1.86 BB/9.

However, being around the plate that much has its downsides, as they allowed 12 home runs, third most in the majors over the last week. Minnesota’s commitment to their philosophy is noble, but it also wouldn’t kill them to waste one out of the zone every once in a while.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Bronnt
13 years ago

What’s the absolute cut off for positive return on stolen bases again? I was trying to find that article the other day but couldn’t find it, and now this tid-bit about Upton stealing bases has put it back into my head.

I think it’s about 75%, but I can’t remember.

syh
13 years ago
Reply to  Bronnt

75% is what I remember the break-even success-rate needed to bother stealing second. Here’s a BP article from 2004 so maybe the run expectancies have been modified since, but this is a general benchmark anyway. Like all caveats with things based on the run expectancy tables, game-situation can shift things.

joser
13 years ago
Reply to  Bronnt

Well, the 75% rule-of-thumb is based off the run expectancy matrix — but that’s in the abstract, and doesn’t assume anything beyond the game state (number of outs and bases occupied). In practice, when you’re talking about a particular runner attempting the steal against a particular pitcher/catcher combo with a particular batter at the plate, the numbers can change quite a bit. Joe Sheehan expands on that in this BP article.

Gomez
13 years ago
Reply to  Bronnt

It depends on the run environment and the respective values of the stolen base and an out in those environments, not to mention the base/out situation. I’ve seen recent environments with an average break-even as low as 71% and as high as 75%.