What’s Going On With Stephen Strasburg
Stephen Strasburg has an ERA over 6. We don’t talk about ERA very often. OK, then, Stephen Strasburg has an overall RA over 7. I don’t bring these numbers up because they conclusively demonstrate that Strasburg has a problem. I bring them up because an ERA over 6 is just embarrassing, and a pitcher like Strasburg can’t pull that off unless something’s awry. This isn’t something that’s hidden deep in the statistics — it’s readily apparent to everyone that Strasburg’s been giving up way too many runs.
You have an understanding of how these things go. When you see someone who’s been really good, odds are that player has been both good and lucky. When you see someone who’s been really bad, odds are that player has been both bad and unlucky. For some of you, the first thing that stands out on Strasburg’s page is the near-.400 BABIP. It’s the highest BABIP in baseball, and we know Strasburg has pitched in front of a porous defense. His peripherals indicate he’s been all right. You can’t just stop there, though. This isn’t random BABIP noise. There’s no reason why a pitcher like Strasburg should be running a higher contact rate against than Bartolo Colon. No reason, at least, that isn’t problematic.
Strasburg has issues. Or, Strasburg has one issue. But he very definitely has not been himself.
Just because we can, now, let’s quickly think about those hits. This isn’t supposed to be a post about Strasburg’s hits allowed, but it does concern his surprising hittability. Has he “earned” such a lofty BABIP? On the one hand, among qualifying pitchers, he’s in the middle of the pack in hard-hit rate. On the other hand, he ranks just outside the worst 10% in average batted-ball velocity. We can at least say this much: Strasburg hasn’t been inducing weak contact.
His has been a problem of command. That’s why there’ve been hits, and that’s why there’ve been fewer strikeouts. Now, the dirty little secret is “a problem of command” doesn’t really mean anything. If something’s going wrong with a pitcher, he’s either hurt, or he isn’t commanding the ball very well. Out of command comes everything else. But it doesn’t seem like Strasburg is hurt.
His velocity is fine. He isn’t avoiding pitches. Though he recently left a game with shoulder discomfort, it was treated by a chiropractor, and the Nationals didn’t order any tests. Neither the team nor Strasburg appear alarmed. From the looks of things, this isn’t a result of Strasburg being injured. Rather, this looks like the result of Strasburg having been injured, once.
Steve McCatty is very confident that he knows the problem. It’s something he’s already worked on with Strasburg, in the bullpen. In the spring, Strasburg sustained a minor left ankle injury. The belief is that Strasburg altered his mechanics to compensate for the discomfort, and now it’s a matter of getting his old mechanics back.
I can’t tell you how long I’ve spent looking at pictures a lot like these. One from 2014, and one from 2015:
I’d ask you to guess which picture is which year, but the Gerardo Parra bobblehead advertisement kind of gives it away. The more important point is I’m not sure I’ve found anything. But analyzing pitching mechanics can be tough on MLB.tv, and McCatty has been very specific about what he thinks is the issue:
When Strasburg’s left ankle was taped up, it made it hard for him to land properly on his front foot, which led to him throwing across his body, leaving pitches up and offspeed pitches losing their bite. But in between starts, McCatty worked with Strasburg on fixing his alignment on the mound. They simply didn’t translate to the game.
“We worked on it and he was right on line in the bullpen,” McCatty said. “He had great alignment throwing in the bullpen the other day, and his stuff was great. [Tuesday] warming up in the bullpen, I just walked out of there saying, ‘Wow! Wow!’ But then you go out there, get two quick outs and sometimes when you struggle, you wait for the other shoe to fall.”
The idea is that Strasburg was doing something to take some of the pressure off his bad foot. A pitcher’s lead foot is a vital component of driving on a line toward home, so if the foot starts drifting or planting too early, that can have effects on location. By pitching through a little discomfort for long enough, Strasburg wound up with a slightly different throwing motion. What he needs to do now is un-learn what he learned, but that’s easier to do in the bullpen than in the relatively high-pressure environment of a game. If McCatty is to be trusted, Strasburg looks like himself in the pen. He just hasn’t carried those adjustments over.
In a way, this is similar to what’s gone on with Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen was hurt, so his mechanics changed, and now he’s trying to get back to his old mechanics. It’s the same with Strasburg, except that, with McCutchen, he might still be feeling discomfort. It sounds like Strasburg is close to 100%. He just needs to work on his muscle memory.
Now, there’s something really interesting about this. When has Strasburg been most affected by his altered delivery? The numbers can’t be considered automatically conclusive, but almost all of Strasburg’s problems have come with men on base. Between last year and this year, Strasburg has the same strike rate with the bases empty. He also has the same strike rate with at least one runner on. But strike rate and command are two different things, and this tells a hell of a story:
(In 2011, Strasburg pitched just 24 innings.)
With the bases empty, Strasburg’s contact rate hasn’t budged much. It’s a little higher than it’s been, but not nearly enough to sound any alarms. We’re talking just a few percentage points. But as soon as someone reaches, Strasburg’s been about the most hittable pitcher in baseball. He used to very consistently make one of every four swings miss. This year he’s vaulted into position-player territory. Strasburg’s command has eroded with runners on. Contact has followed, and hits have followed, and so runs have followed.
Could be, it’s a problem pitching from the stretch. Maybe the altered mechanics are less present from the wind-up. Or maybe when there are runners on, there’s just more stress, more distractions, and Strasburg has trouble focusing on repeating the delivery he wants. It’s said that, in higher-leverage situations, players tend to revert to their most comfortable processes. The problem here being Strasburg’s most comfortable process involves a wonky delivery, developed accidentally because of an ankle thing. That’s the theory. Re-wiring a player is a challenging thing to do on the fly.
But it is doable, and it doesn’t seem like Strasburg has a major adjustment to make. If we can take them at their word, he needs to straighten out his front foot and trust that his ankle won’t hurt him anymore. He still has all his stuff, and his performance with the bases empty shows that he’s close to being effective again. Now it’s about repetition. Repeating over and over, until things are as they were. This is a hell of a lot better than elbow pain.
It looks like the problem with Stephen Strasburg isn’t that he’s hurt. It looks like the problem is that his body remembers having been hurt. Some injuries themselves last only a matter of weeks. But there’s recovering from injury, and there’s recovering from injury side-effects. They don’t operate on the same timeline.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
The d-backs had a fedora giveaway day? looool
I’m pretty sure at least 10 MLB teams had Fedora giveaway day last year
Padres did one on opening day.
Oh riiight, I believe this was their annual D-backs D-bags Giveaway Night.
Jeff, the difference in the two pictures is obvious… last year, he gave up 0 runs, and this year, 5.
I admit it, I LOL’d.
Are you Steve McCathy?
No, he is Steve McCarthy
Stras has also been throwing his FB about 4% more and his change 4% less. This could also be another reason his contact% is up and SwSrk% down.
That doesn’t seem like enough of a change to account for such a dramatic shift in his SwSrk%. But his changeup was his best pitch last year per Pitchf/x Pitch Values so maybe?
anything to him throwing his 2-seamer much less? Or is that just a classification issue and his fastball has less movement now?
Up until this year teams were 1-39 on bunt attempts against Strasburg. This year they are 2-3.
SSS and all kinds of variables but just thought was interesting given his ankle injury
He is talented but for an “ace” he is a little soft.
Are you Rob Dibble?
As in, he uses moisturizer?
I have seen every Strasburg start (minus the rare vacation away from MASN broadcast range) and even when the mechanics get worked out, it won’t change the fact that he is one of the most mentally weak athletes I have even seen. If one thing goes wrong behind him, he melts down. If he does not have his A+++ stuff, he gives up and lays it in.
He is not a fighter. He is not a grinder. In my opinion, all the future money earmarked for him needs to go to Zimmermann/Fister. Now those are pitchers who can work through their B stuff.
This is what I was trying to say without coming off harsh, but you said it better.
Given Strasburg’s history, his interviews, and his persona, I wonder if he would benefit from a visit to a sports psychologist. I really don’t think he’s a coward or “mentally weak” – but maybe he has anxiety issues, or is simply overthinking on the mound. If your brain’s going a million miles an hour when you’re faced with stress, then yes, you’d be mighty hittable with men on base.
I feel some compassion for this because I have the same problem in my life. Were I a pitcher in the major leagues, everyone would be calling me “mentally weak” too. Who knows what Strasburg’s issue is, and who knows if anything is wrong with his head, but if there is a problem in there, it’s not like he chose to have it.
Weren’t there some questions about his mental game dating back to his time in college?
Not saying its true or anything just that I seem to remember this coming up in the past as well.
I try to avoid diagnosing psychiatric conditions/state of mind from the stands or the other side of the TV screen. I have found over time that my diagnoses tend to more closely track the notions that I carry into the observation than they do reality.
Strasburg was a fat, out-of-shape disappointment as a prep pitcher that remade himself into the top pitching prospect of his generation. That doesn’t sound to me like someone who is “mentally weak.”
Definitely agree with your last paragraph. If Strasburg was “mentally weak” he would never have been drafted.
If your stuff is good enough, I think you’d be drafted regardless of your mental makeup. Oliver Perez was known as “mentally weak” and he got a few chances, as well as a nice contract, because teams thought he would put it all together. And I think I recall Grienke taking time off because of a bout with depression before he won the CY Young award.
“Mentally weak” can mean a lot of things though. Just because a guy is motivated enough to get into shape and work hard at his craft etc etc doesn’t mean he doesn’t get frustrated/lose focus on the mound when things don’t go his way.
Again, not saying that’s the case. Just saying that its not as simple as A+B=C
Maybe he’s never quite recovered from being pulled from the rotation in 2013 to ‘save him from himself’.
One thing for sure, he’s no Greinke.
An evaluation that a player is “mentally weak” has to be taken in context of course. I doubt at the MLB level that there are very many players that are truly weak mentally. But, at the highest level, relative weaknesses are exposed. With Strasburg, I wonder if the issue has more to do with his ability to process information in runners-on situations. Not mental weakness exactly, but more gamesmanship? Is that a good word. That could be an issue of coaching as well as simply time and repetition and becoming a more mature pitcher. Keep in mind that as good as he’s been, Strasburg has only 685 IP at the ML level and he barely pitched at all in the minors, only 75.2 IP. Fister, by comparison, has 1,020 IP at the ML level, and 433 in the minors. I don’t know what the pitching equivalent of the 10,000 hour rule is, but I’m sure Fister is quite a ways farther along that path.
I’ve also seen the vast majority of Strasburg’s starts, and my takeaway is a bit difference. Earlier in his career Strasburg seemed to have a frustration problem, but that has greatly diminished the last couple of years. But the impression of those first seasons is pretty much set in stone – at which point confirmation bias kicks in. So the fact that Strasburg has actually already had a couple of starts this season where he gutted through adversity (whether wandering stuff, lack of run support or poor defense) doesn’t fit the narrative – and so those starts are essentially ignored.
Jordan Zimmermann is the other side of the coin on this. Because he has always been stoic, the assumption is that nothing gets to him, and that narrative has stuck. And it’s been helped right along by the fact that he was never hyped/marketed the same way (which, of course, is not either pitcher’s fault). But JZim has had a couple of starts this season already that, if they had happened to Strasburg, would have led to howls about inability to deal with adversity.
As a Nats fan I’m glad both these guys are on the team. I have serious concerns over signing either one of them (or any pitcher, really, much less TJ survivors) to a long term contract. But for the vast majority of the fanbase JZim is the Teflon pitcher and Strasburg the perennial disappointment because he’s not a right handed Clayton Kershaw.
Has he really gutted through adversity a couples times already? Living in Charlotte, I haven’t seen him pitch much because of the MLB.tv blackouts (when you think of North Carolina baseball, you immediately think of the Nats, O’s and Reds, right?).
Looking through the game log, he’s only had two starts with an ERA under 5.00. In the two starts where he was able to prevent runs, there wasn’t a single error made by the Nats. In one game against the Mets, he had a lead starting in the 4th inning. The other game was against the impotent Phillies bats. I do remember his defense letting him down in his first start against the Mets, but he didn’t handle that very well.
You would know more than me because you actually watch the games, but the game logs don’t look too impressive.
I saw him pitch a game earlier this year. He was 0-1, 0-2 with low, hard, practically unhittable fastballs on the black to most every hitter the first couple of innings. Then, for some unknown reason, he’d go to his slider or he’d try to tail a fastball in on righties to put them away. Next thing you know, he’s 2-2 or 3-2 on everyone and grooving one that was going out faster than it came in. By the third of fourth inning, you could just see that he had mentally quit. He just about gave up on throwing his power fastball entirely, when that wasn’t even the pitch he was getting beaten on.
So my question was then and is now, if he has that kind of fastball, that kind of power, and that kind of command, why was he trying to get cute to put guys away? It made no sense, but it did make me think he was quite soft mentally.
When Strasburg debuted, his fastballs had a TON of movement that they do not seem to have anymore. Especially horizontal movement. It would be nice if somebody checked on this to see if Strasburg’s fastball really has lost movement.
Eh, not really seeing it.
Here’s a Brooks graph of his horiz. movement.
Ah, he just doesn’t have TWTW.
Would you guys say that in general, it is a better idea to sideline guys on the DL than to have them develop bad habits that carry over when healthy? It seems like taking a few weeks off is better in the long run than tinkering with a successful player’s mechanics.
I’m open to it
This was my first thought as well. It seems to happen pretty often. Either a pitcher stinks, and develops stiffness somewhere on his arm while trying to compensate for a separate injury, or a hitter comes back too soon from injury and takes a couple weeks of poor at bats to get his timing back.
There’s no way to tell for sure though, because we don’t know how many players have similar injuries but recovery successfully. We don’t hear about it when that happens. Maybe a dozen pitchers have some sort of issue with their ankle, but they aren’t getting into bad habits. I think I read last month that Harvey has had an ankle injury since spring training. If they gave him a few weeks off to fully recover, they would have missed out on several great starts.
“When you see someone who’s been really bad, odds are that player has been both bad and lucky.”
Not to, ahem, pick nits, but, surely, “unlucky”, yes?
Unless you mean, in a cosmic/Cistullian sense, that if we see them struggling in the MLB, they’re still really lucky to have been given the talent to get there in the first place.
is it not possible that his numbers with runners on base are inflated due to a small sample size. I have not been following Strasburg and had no idea his era was in the sixes, but what’s his variance on a per start basis? Although, your conclusion is entirely plausible, just reading your article leads me to believe that there’s a chance his numbers are inflated due to a few bad starts or bad defence etc.
Sample size is always an issue at this point in the year, but he has an ERA over 5.00 in 5 out of his 7 starts. He’s also given up about 2 runners per inning in those starts. His most recent start is the only time he was shelled (7 earned runs in 3.1 innings), but he’s been giving up too many baserunners and runs in most of his starts this year.
I’m not sure if this corroborates your theory or not but have you seen the chart of his vertical release point this year? It’s bouncing around like crazy: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=544931&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=z0&s_type=2&startDate=03/01/2014&endDate=05/14/2015
From my own judgement just by looking into his numbers, the biggest red flag/difference I see in this year compared to his others, is he has gotten away from his 2 seamer big time.
In his last 5 years leading up to this one he threw his 2 seamer on average about 15.5% of the time, (never lower than 12.2%). This year that number as at 6.7%!(Compared to 56.8% four-seamers, higher than average) His fastball percentage is about in line with his career numbers, but throwing so many straight 4 seamers and being at a point where his fastball isn’t quite fast enough to just blow by people, it could be a recipe for disaster, an inability to keep hitters off balance, and a lack of ground balls to get out of jams with runners on base.
I can’t find the numbers myself but I’d be curious to see what hitters are hitting vs. each of his pitches from the wind-up vs. the stretch, and see if these trends are the same with runners on base.
Going to see a witch doctor, I mean chiropractor, is a huge red flag. He supposedly needed his shoulder “adjusted?” Maybe he just needs a pair of Brett Favre’s copper underwear or some crystals in his pocket.
Wow, quite dismissive of chiropractors. I’ve had plenty of success with them, though I will admit there are some who want you to visit frequently just so they can “adjust” your wallet. Of course, there are a good number of AMA physicians with similar mindsets.
People are dismissive of Alchemists too
A bastion of reason as always, Mr. Russell.
Thank you for distilling a full mechanics breakdown into two still pictures.
A few comments from watching the last Arizona start.
Stuff looked fine. Fastball was consistently 95+, change had the same downward movement it usually does, the few sliders he threw had late movement, curveball was nasty when he threw it (not often enough IMO).
He was staying more inline to the plate, mechanics looked better compared to earlier this season where he was clearly falling towards first base. Command was still a bit off but with his stuff he shouldn’t have been getting hit like that.
It looked like Arizona was sitting on everything. Not sure if he was tipping pitches but they weren’t fooled at all.
I think the issue is about pitch sequencing and the catcher.
Ramos does him and the Nats no favors with setting the target late and then stabbing at the ball. No chance to get the borderline calls. Ramos must do a better job of providing an early quiet target and receiving the ball softly. He’s not completely the problem but he’s not helping.
He really needs to change batters eye level more with fastballs up (by design) and then follow with the curve. It’d make it a much more effective pitch. He should throw more curves for strikes as well instead of just as a chase pitch. Right now anything that starts high isn’t swung at.
Hitters are way too comfortable against him. Needs to pitch inside more and make batters move their feet.
His pure stuff isn’t the same as it was pre-TJ (less velocity, less FB movement) but it’s still in the top tier of the game. Stuff-wise there’s little difference between Stras and Arrieta. Arrieta has slightly better command but not overwhelmingly so. The difference is Arrieta makes a hitter account for every region of the strike zone so when he does miss the hitter still can’t react comfortably.
Batters are WAY too comfortable in the box against Stras. I’d love for Schilling or Pedro to talk to him.
That’s rather good analysis. I can’t seem to access a 2015 heatmap but from the starts I’ve seen, he doesn’t pitch high or even high and tight to move the batter much.
Good diagnosis. I was going to ask if his velocity had fallen, because Jeff’s write reminded me of Lincecum Syndrome, but Jeff didn’t mention velocity. It sounds that there are other issues which shouldn’t be that hard to correct.
The trouble with that is I think he really has never pitched inside much, and it didn’t hurt like this before.
Like Soranio, Strasbourg has lost it, never to get it back. Also hasn’t developed mentally. Still childish. Major leagers hit fast balls. Something else needed. Get rid of him while he may have some value.
You’re right of course. Totally worthless, total bum. One bad month? Totally broken and utterly worthless now. Might as well just outright release that loser. *eye roll*
St strasburg is easily diagnosed HE HATES IT IN WAS he wants out plain and simple and he is buying his ticket out start by start. I see him traded before July. He can’t stand throwing to Ramos and he can’t stand williams who is a subpar mngr at best. Yeah stras is a bit of a diva but he’s still a damn good pitcher. The WAS experience has drained the fun out of baseball for him he shows no fire. He wants out you can see it in every start he’s made…….
Yes, because if you want to leave Washington, the best way is to pitch to a 6 ERA so no team will want to trade for you…. that makes a ton of sense.
Totally agreed – pitch like crap, force your way off an almost assured playoff team and probable World Series contender, and maybe cost yourself eight figures in the process. GREAT PLAN.
I am also a nats fan and have watched most of the games he has pitched. His fastball looks to be a lot straighter then it used to be. He also has a hard time locating his offspeed stuff. His curve ball in passed years was a wicked 12-6 with sharp late movement, but this year it is more of a slider. His out pitch is his changeup which he has seemingly lost all control of. It is quite amazing how hitters lay off most of his off speed stuff. It’s almost like they are sitting on fastball and know exactly when it is coming.
He’s not getting his curve over for a strike, or throwing it enough to keep hitters guessing. They’re just sitting dead red right now.
my humble opinion. But Buchholz is accused of having a mentally weak disposition. yet, this is the guy that was pitching in the playoffs hurt, with high school level velocity, movement, and location. I am NOT a Strasburg fan but I believe it is too early to jump to such conclusions, especially because he is obviously such a competitor on the mound. edit: I am on my droid, so after fixing dozens of grammatical errors I can still see some capitalization issues. I apologize
I’ve talked about this with my league members for a while.
Strasburg is the only power arm I can think of where there is ZERO fear.
His control is “too good” meaning he doesn’t buzz guys , he rarely hits
a batter and guys can go up there like they would against a jugs machine.
Without the “bastard” mentality, every hitter goes up just needing to time
themselves.
He should be Roger Clemens-Randy Johnson-Nolan Ryan instead He’s as feared on
the hill as Brad Radke-Aaron Harang-Charlie Hough.
It’s 100% attitude. He doesn’t have it, he might never get it.
Without it, he’s very subpar.
Yep, that was totally a problem when he put up ERA’s of 3.16, 3.00, and 3.14, and WAR’s of 4.0, 3.3, and 4.5 over the past three years. Was just too nice! Could have posted 10+ WAR’s if he had only been a d!ck to everybody.
(Or…something?)
Har-vey’s Bet-ter…(clap, clap, clap clap clap)
This article sure received a lot of troll comments.
Great article.
Most interesting thing for me is the contact rate graph. Mechanical problems pitching out of the stretch might actually partially explain the “mental issues” that he gets pegged with. High contact rate with men on + crap defense behind him contributing errors = errors happen, men get on, Stras gives up contact, no one catches the ball because crap defense, runs score, and we all come to the inevitable conclusion that Strasburg can’t handle adversity. Probably not the whole explanation but a chunk of it, leastways.
I’m still compiling what he did in previous years and what other pitchers do, but Strasburg has been starting an awful lot of hitters off this season with a four-seam fastball; 71% of the time that’s the first pitch of the at bat. IMHO, that’s abysmal pitch selection/sequencing for a pitcher with Strasburg’s repertoire. At least make the hitter guess what’s coming. There have been three games this year in which he started everyone in the line-up off with a 4-seamer their first time through. Maybe it’s only coincidence, but his best start of the season (against PHI on 4/19) had the lowest percentage of first pitch fastballs of any start. I don’t know that is completely the problem but I can’t imagine it’s helping.
As a 20yr US Army vet, I see clearly by Strasburg’s body language a lack of fierceness, be it on the mound, walking, being interviewed,or standing. Head hanging,shoulders slumping, no fire in his eyes.
“The psychological to the physical is a ratio of 3 to 1.” -Napoleon Bonaparte