Where Could Nelson Cruz Even Fit?
A few things to know about Nelson Cruz:
- Cruz is 33 years old
- He’s coming off a PED suspension
- The last three years, he’s been worth the same WAR as Sean Rodriguez and John Buck
- He’s a free agent seeking four or five years and about $15 million per
Cruz’s contract wishes are memorable, in the same way that Ervin Santana’s nine-figure contract wishes are memorable. Terms players want aren’t necessarily indicative of anything — ultimately, players have to play for what a team is willing to spend. Cruz might very well fall way short of what he came into the offseason seeking. It’s already January, and at least Santana has the excuse that his market has been held up by the Masahiro Tanaka situation. Cruz is just waiting to be bid on, and he doesn’t seem to have too broad a market. And, though we can’t know what his market actually is, we can attempt to determine it from the outside. Below, a quick review of all 30 teams as potential Nelson Cruz landing spots.
For the record, Steamer projects Cruz for more or less the same WAR as Derek Jeter, Nick Markakis, Jurickson Profar, and Alex Rodriguez. Another way of saying the same thing is that Steamer projects Cruz for more or less the same WAR as Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Trevor Plouffe, and Jose Tabata. Steamer projects Cruz for a win and a half, and you hardly have to know anything about baseball to understand that a win and a half isn’t really all that valuable. It’s difficult to identify places where Cruz might be a real short-term upgrade. Let’s go over the teams now, in alphabetical order, and assign a subjective level of fitness. Where are the fits, really?
Angels
- no real fit
The Angels seem to like Kole Calhoun, and he projects all right, and though Cruz could conceivably be an upgrade on Raul Ibanez at DH, Ibanez just got signed, and the Angels appear low on spending money. They wouldn’t be interested.
Astros
- stretch
What the Astros don’t have in the outfield is a whole lot of instant quality. They picked up Dexter Fowler, and they were connected to Shin-Soo Choo. But while Cruz might be better than what they have in the corners, what they have in the corners is relatively young, and the Astros aren’t looking to win in 2014, nor are they looking to give up a draft pick for a mediocre veteran. Paying for an extra few dingers wouldn’t make sense.
Athletics
- no real fit
There might not be a deeper team in baseball than the A’s, so while they were connected to Cruz early on in the offseason, that never made a lot of sense, and it would make even less sense today.
Blue Jays
- no real fit
Jose Bautista is a good player.
Braves
- no real fit
Totally full.
Brewers
- stretch
Really, this is more like no real fit. Cruz might — might — be better than Khris Davis, for now, but the Brewers want to see Davis over a full season, which is why they traded Norichika Aoki. Not a contender.
Cardinals
- no real fit
As evidenced by the Jhonny Peralta contract, the Cardinals aren’t concerned about PED suspensions, but they are concerned about ability, and they already have lots in the areas where Cruz might play.
Cubs
- stretch
The Cubs are clearly thin in the outfield, but Nate Schierholtz is kind of underrated, and this isn’t a team looking to win right away. It’s a team that wants to spend wisely and hang on to draft picks, so going after Cruz would be well out of character.
Diamondbacks
- no real fit
Nothing doing, especially with Cody Ross due back at some point early on. Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock are underrated outfield assets, and the team already traded youth for Mark Trumbo.
Dodgers
- no real fit
lol
Giants
- no real fit
Maybe before Michael Morse, but now there’s Michael Morse.
Indians
- stretch
Cruz might be a step up from David Murphy, but then he might not, and Murphy was just acquired as an intended buy-low. So the Indians seem committed to that idea, and they’re not the kind of team that tends to spend big on players like this.
Mariners
- stretch
There’s a belief out there that the Mariners signing Cruz is virtually inevitable. They’re definitely interested, but right now there’s Michael Saunders in right and Logan Morrison and Corey Hart in left, and Cruz isn’t really a better player than Saunders, and Morrison can’t move to first as long as Justin Smoak is around. Signing Cruz would require that the Mariners either drop a decent outfielder or move a first baseman. At present, there’s no hole.
Marlins
- no real fit
Prospects and Giancarlo Stanton. Nowhere to put a new guy.
Mets
- no real fit
The team’s already invested in Curtis Granderson and Chris Young, so now the outfield’s full. This could’ve worked a while ago, perhaps, but the Mets moved on.
Nationals
- no real fit
No space.
Orioles
- decent
So, the Orioles already have Markakis in right. What they don’t have is much of anything in left or at DH, although there’s ability in David Lough and Nolan Reimold. Henry Urrutia doesn’t seem like he’s ready to deliver. The Orioles could make this work, but complicating factors is that they might be a better fit for Kendrys Morales, and he has an even smaller market than Cruz does. If Baltimore were to sign Morales, they’d probably be more likely to remain in-house for left field. And Cruz hasn’t really been a left fielder.
Padres
- no real fit
Full. More than full, really.
Phillies
- no real fit
A lot of people figured the Phillies would be the team crazy enough to give Cruz what he wanted, but they signed Marlon Byrd a while ago instead, and Domonic Brown is hanging around for the other corner. Brown’s been involved in trade rumors, but he’s every bit as capable as Cruz, and obviously far younger.
Pirates
- stretch
Cruz might be a little more appealing than Tabata, but Gregory Polanco is lurking around, and when it comes to Cruz the team says it doesn’t have the money. That could change if Cruz’s price drops far enough, but the Pirates aren’t really a Nelson Cruz kind of team.
Rangers
- stretch
The Rangers know Cruz better than anyone, but they just signed Choo for a super long time, and Alex Rios is in the other corner with Mitch Moreland at DH. It could be made to work, but there’s less pressure on the Rangers now, with Choo in the fold.
Rays
- no real fit
The Rays are good and they’re actively trying to trade David Price because he costs too much.
Red Sox
- no real fit
Team’s fond of Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes.
Reds
- stretch
The Reds are set in right. They’re less set in left, with Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick, but again, Cruz hasn’t really been a left fielder, and the Reds aren’t flush with spending money. They’d make for a surprising destination.
Rockies
- stretch
Drew Stubbs isn’t great. Neither is Brandon Barnes, or Charlie Blackmon, or Corey Dickerson. But they all have their selling points, and they’re all currently set to duke it out for left field. The rest of the outfield is blocked.
Royals
- no real fit
There just isn’t the money left. Or the need. Both kind of critical for a Cruz pursuit.
Tigers
- stretch
Torii Hunter’s in right, and he’s locked in, but Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis are set to platoon in left and that’s more underwhelming. But Davis was just acquired, and what Dirks doesn’t provide at the plate, he makes up for in other ways. The Tigers also seem to be around their own spending cap. Cruz probably wouldn’t make this team better.
Twins
- stretch
The team’s already invested in some veterans for the rotation, but the outfield’s got Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia in the corners, and Willingham’s established while Arcia’s a good young building block. Maybe something could be worked out at DH, but the Twins seem focused on arms. And players that don’t cost picks.
White Sox
- stretch
Cruz might make the White Sox a little better, but the Sox aren’t thinking about 2014 so much as they’re thinking about 2016 and 2017. On paper, they’re a fit, but they’d be a weird kind of team to spend millions on a short-term power hitter with downside.
Yankees
- no real fit
The Yankees wouldn’t sign Cruz to block Carlos Beltran or Alfonso Soriano. They also wouldn’t do that to their own luxury tax. So this is a no-go.
There is one team, out of all 30, that might be a decent fit for Nelson Cruz, and that’s Baltimore. The Orioles would like to win soon, and they have the holes on the roster. So far in the offseason, they’ve been remarkably quiet. Yet the in-house options realistically aren’t much worse than Cruz, and the Orioles are also perhaps the only remaining fit for free-agent DH Kendrys Morales. Probably, the Orioles wouldn’t sign both, although I guess it’s not out of the question. But Cruz’s best match is also the best match for another guy, and everybody else is either a stretch or a total no-go. Even the Mariners would have to shake some things up, for as much as they’re fans of Cruz’s kind of skillset.
It’s almost impossible to see Cruz getting his money. There’s simply no need for that sort of desperation. It’s also almost impossible to see Cruz signing as a significant upgrade to a team. The fact of the matter is that, right-handed power be damned, Cruz isn’t particularly valuable, and every team has guys projected to be worth at least about a win or so. So when Cruz does sign, it’ll either be for very little money, or it’ll be a questionable move for a modest upgrade or a non-upgrade. There’s not a single team in baseball right now that ought to see Nelson Cruz as a difference-maker. Because, quite simply, Nelson Cruz isn’t a difference-maker. He’s a half-decent aging outfielder who’s going to cost millions and a draft pick. You won’t find many bigger gaps between name value and real value.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I think the Phils flirted with moving some players like Brown and/or Hamels of CLee to try and get younger. A move like that could have created a hole for them to fill with a Cruz and they have a protected 1st rd pick so that isn’t a stretch and could still happen.
Reds also look possible. Basically any homer-haven likes like a decent fit since power is Cruz’s one long suit. Cinci, Philly, Baltimore all could work but his price prob has to come down to the 3/33M range I guess. Maybe Cubs if the price drops enough.
As with most free agents, Cruz is aiming WAYYYY too high.
As a quick summary, Jeff’s remarks fall under one of the categories:
1) team already has better player OR
2) team is rebuilding (i.e. not competing) OR
3) team is competitive, but can’t afford him
Teams with a better player aren’t looking to downgrade.
Teams that are rebuilding aren’t suddenly going to compete
So the only ONE area that Cruz can control is his asking price. Price is pretty much killing himself by asking for $15 MM annually.
I could fathom a scenario where Cruz signs with the Reds / Mariners / Orioles if he drops his asking price to the 3yr/$30m range or 4yr/$36m range.
Otherwise I don’t see a better scenario on the horizon for Cruz.
Cruz has got to be regretting turning down the Qualifying offer about now.
Not likely. He’ll still most likely get more than 14 million guaranteed, though I doubt he’ll get nearly that much in AAV. The thing he might regret is that he’s not likely to move to a team with a better chance at contending than the Rangers.
As shown in this piece, barring a trade or injury, he really might not get 14 mill total. I could see the Astros or Rockies taking a flyer on him for 1/5 but he really isnt very good.
Not specifically in reference to Cruz because he is not that good; more in reference to Drew/Lohse, but Are teams way overvaluing the compensation pick?
well, 1st rounders in the top half of the draft are pretty valuable. Much less so as you get deeper into it, so teams with protected 1st rd picks and teams that pick at the bottom of the 1st rd prob don’t stress that much over the pick.
I did a study of picks 11 through 30 a while back. I think it was 10 years, 1991-2000. The sample was too small for pick-by-pick analysis, but the average net value of picks 11-30 was around $12.8 million per pick (6 yrs control beginning in 2014 + inflation) and there wasn’t much difference between 11-15 and 26-30, or anywhere in between. In fact, if I remember correctly pick #11 was especially bad during that period w/ an average net value of $6 million.
There was more high-end talent in the 11-20 range, but the sacrificial draft picks are a total crapshoot overall and the odds of drafting a 0 WAR player is about the same regardless of pick #. Of course, sacrificing the pick leaves a team with a 0% chance of drafting a Chase Utley and his $165 million in net value, but still . . . I think there were only four players like that in a 10-year span.
Anyhow, I think regardless of where a team is picking, the pick is worth sacrificing IF the free agent is critical to the immediate win curve. If not, burning that lottery ticket is a bad decision.
That’s in line with the other research I’ve seen. There is a significant drop from the first overall pick to the second overall pick, and to a lesser extent another significant drop from number 2 to 3. But from the third pick on, you have to get pretty deep into the first round before you start seeing a signicant drop in career WAR, and there is so much volatility from the third pick on that it resembles a game of Roulette.
Obviously some drafts are deeper than others. But the research indicates that teams may place too great a value on the picks that could be forfeited by signing a free agent.
it’s also the loss of slot money that matters
Slot bonuses were included in my net estimation, but yes, those range between $2.8 and $1.7 million from 11-30. That’s a big chunk of change to remove from the signing pool.
Since I don’t think they’d have to give up a draft pick, I’m feeling the Cubs on this one. I don’t really have strong evidence to support this hunch, other than they signed the pitching version of Nelson Cruz last winter (Edwin Jackson), and they have *some* need in the OF.
I don’t think it will be a big deal though. Maybe even a 1 year deal with the hopes of flipping him at the deadline.
Why wouldn’t they need to give up a draft pick? Don’t quite understand what you mean.
I think what you’re saying is that both Jackson and Cruz aren’t stars but are solid players. I don’t think it’s a good comparison, though. Last year Jackson was a 29 year old coming off of a 2 win season, preceded by three 3+ win seasons. Cruz is a 33 year old coming off of three consecutive sub-2 win seasons.
Assuming he’s just thinking they wouldn’t give up their first round pick. Either way, the point stands that the Cubs would be less affected by the draft compensation system.
Edwin Jackson is also a pitcher. And a pitcher with incredible raw stuff. He had ace stuff….it has just and probably will never come together.
Ejax is also more reliable from an injury standpoint. Not a good comparison IMO
Yes, I meant less affected due to not losing a first round pick.
Jackson is a power pitcher, with enough flaws consistently shown over the years to know that he’s likely never going to be an ace. Cruz is a power hitter, with enough flaws consistently shown to know that he’s never going to be an elite hitter. I guess I just see them as different sides of the same coin, though the injury argument is valid (except with pitchers, who knows who’s going to go down with an injury in any given year).
My main point was that I wouldn’t just rule out the Cubs because they are theoretically smart with Theo around, and unlikely to part with picks and money. They just proved last offseason with Jackson that they don’t mind burning significant money on mediocre players. They somewhat have an OF need, Theo may think he can get a discount given Cruz’s D and injury history while thinking HR power is at a premium currently. Stars align, and Cruz is seen cranking long HR’s while butchering fly balls in Wrigley next season.
Whether or not Cruz is a fit for the Angels, Oliver might be a taaaad high on Kole Calhoun
Oliver is a bit wonky right now. Every projection is based on 1200 PAs instead of 600.
I really enjoy these Nelson Cruz hit pieces. Poster boy for overpriced mid-range power.
I don’t disagree with your analysis, but regarding the Orioles: I think there’s a good argument to be made that Lough and Reimold together are at least as valuable as Cruz in left, and obviously a WHOLE lot cheaper. And their stated preferences, it seems very unlikely that Buck and Dan would go for a full-time right handed DH with mediocre OBP abilities.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking on my part, but I don’t think Cruz fits even on the Orioles.
I think he is a good fit for the Orioles because their DH situation is horrible. I lived through it last year and would prefer not to do that again.
Left field will be fine with Lough (I think), but that’s anybody’s guess as to whether he’s any good or better than McLouth, and Reimold hasn’t played meaningful baseball in two seasons.
The Orioles are essentially the last team to the buffet and Cruz is the slightly undersized soggy King Crab leg that people passed over because it looked funny. I’m infuriated by the Orioles lack of movement in the off season.
I don’t like Cruz. He represents a slight upgrade to what we have but also has a lot of question marks which give me pause. Plus you’re asking the Orioles to give up a draft pick and they already have one of the less favorable farm systems.
Pray for Kendrys Morales, then. He’s a good joe, a good fit for the park, hits better LH, and will DH but play a little 1B. OBP hasn’t been his strength but he doesn’t give away ABs either. Guaranteed he’ll pop more dingers in that park, and probably more than Cruz would. Understandably, the Os don’t want to give up the 1st round pick to sign him; that’s why this is dragging on. To me, it’ll come down to who’s least happy with their offseason on 15 January, the Orioles, the Yankers, or the Mariners. I’d bet the Yankers do a two-year deal when the price really drops down to that, they’ve always, rightly, like Morales. But I wouldn’t mind him back in Seattle if the Mariners move Smoak (likely to the Os) to shift their assets around. Regardless, all three would be a good landing for Kendrys, just not at the number of years he would like to have.
Wait!–What? Were we talking about Nelson Cruz??! He’s like that name-brand semi-cab with drive drain problems up on blocks beside some guys barn a-waaaaay out near the county line. Guy wants money for it like it’s 18mos off the dealer’s lot and purring over all that horsepower. Depends on just how much you need a truck to hall that load of stuffed chemical toilets over the border. Nobody’s tht desperate, and I don’t think anybody’s that crazy either. If and when Cruz’s ask drops to two-for-$20M and an option, somebody may geek. But he’s got so many flaws and red flags and pick costs that clearly nobody wants him like he wants him. And I suspect he becomes an instant disaster anyway. Just say no.
Meant to say “considering their stated preferences.”
Don’t count out the DBacks. Towers loves to trade and sign OFers for seemingly no reason.
Yeah, or the Rockies, who like to trade young talent to make room for not good veterans
Wait … When have the Rockies done that? They’re fairly legendary for NEVER trading young guys. To a fault and well beyond.
too bad for Cruz that Bowden still isn’t a GM
Is the difference between left and right field really that much? There are plenty of guys who handle both just as well, I don’t see a team saying. “Cruz is a RF, not a LF”
I heard that some people like to have a left-handed thrower in right field and a righty in left field, so that they can backhand balls down the line and make a quicker throw. I think you also generally want to put a stronger arm in right, to stop guys from going first to third on hits to right field. I really don’t know anything about Cruz’s arm, but if he has a good one, putting him in left would reduce his already meager defensive value.
He has a very good arm, but, as you probably know, mediocre range. In terms of WAR, he would probably have as much value (or possibly more) as a DH since he’s likely to have a negative UZR.
Red Sox might not believe in Nava and Gomes going forward. Could see a surprise signing if the market cools enough.
Nava is probably a better player than Cruz straight up, and costs basically nothing. There’s no reason the Red Sox would come anywhere near Cruz.
They’re also right up against the luxury cap, so they can’t afford to.
No way the Bosox sign Cruz. Nava is better, and they have Gomes and Carp, plus some minor leaguers who might fill any gaps that develop. Cruz can’t play CF and isn’t really capable of handling RF in Fenway, I’d say, so he’d just be a (rather questionable) bat for Boston.
Except that the RS are smart, so they know that Cruz isn’t actually good at baseball and wouldn’t be interested regardless of price.
I doubt Cruz not having played LF matters. That Cruz can’t hit outside Texas on the other hand might matter a bit more.
Career splits:
Home:.294/.356/.556
Away: .242/.299/.435
Texas plays most of its road games in Angels Stadium, Oakland Coliseum, and Safeco Field, three moderate-to-extreme pitchers parks.
The old refrain when discussing Rockies players applies here as well: you can’t just look at a player’s road splits and assume that is what what the player is going to be on another team.
You bring up a good point, take a look at his career OPS in those parks:
Oak: 202 PA 599 OPS
LAA: 201 PA 661 OPS
Sea: 187 PA 741 OPS
Hou: 72 PA 971 OPS
If I were the Astros, he makes sense seeing as their 1st rd is protected, and he could be traded at the deadline to a team who believes in his park-skewed numbers. He’s laughable playing in Oakland and LA.
I’m actually a bit surprised he’s been better in Seattle than Oakland and LAA. Safeco absolutely crushes a lot of righties (see Beltre, Adrian).
What this ignores is that he hit well against HOU in their park BECAUSE he was hitting against Astros pitching. Astros shouldn’t be interested just because he crushed their horrible pitching in a small sample.
What’s really shown is that Cruz’s skillset ‘looks good’ in parks with short fences, and bad anywhere else. Of course, that’s true of a lot of guys who AREN’T Nelson Cruz, too. Highly one dimensional guy, if he doesn’t knock a ball over the wall he’s pretty damn useless. That’s even assuming he still is any good with the bat, he hasn’t hit particularly well for several years, and is the bad body type on the wrong side of 30. But then, _Mike Morse_ has been given a job two years in a row for more money than we’ll ever see to be the same guy only much worse.
A smart team would be trying to pick up Michael Saunders from the Mariners, to take him out of that bad park and put him where his skills pay off better. Or Peter Bourjos; or David Lough. Oh wait . . . .
Point made, but it’s really only 27 to 30 games a year in those stadiums, out of 81 games on the road. The Rangers will also play 15 to 17 games a year in Baltimore, Toronto, Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, and U.S. Cellular Field.
How are people on this site still making this mistake.
Maybe the M’s are no longer a certainty but logical roster construction has not been their strong suit recently.
27 HRs and 76 RBI. Looking good, looking good…
If history is any guide, Cruz’s best chance of getting his deal is if Victor Martinez’s knee explodes again.
Pro-rate the Oliver projections for Cruz to 550 PAs and he’s a 3 WAR player. Since the team that signs Cruz is almost definitely going to be the team that has the most optimistic read on him, may as well use the more favorable projection system to project his eventual destination. At 3 WAR, he’s obviously more appealing to more teams.
yeah, I think he is getting underrated.
He’s not sniffing 3 WAR under any circumstances. His defense is bad and its very difficult for DHs to hit 3.
If he’s playing OF fulltime he’s 1-1.5; DH, 0.5-1.5. He’s not nearly as good as he thinks, he should have taken that QO.
All I am saying is that reasonable projection systems can disagree on this question, which suggests that reasonable teams might also disagree.
Oliver isn’t a reasonable projection system.
I don’t think it is unreasonable to think he could sniff 3. He does have a positive UZR per 150 for his career. Admittedly it has been poor recently, but it wouldn’t be impossible for him to be passable and have a good year at the plate.
He’s only managed to come close to 3 war twice and not since 2010.
It’s funny that almost all the comments (including mine) are every team’s fans worrying about their team signing Nelson Cruz, even though it’s an obviously bad decision. That said, I hope the market doesn’t cool enough that the Rockies think they can afford him!
They have no place to put him unless they trade Cuddyer.
If my team gives up a pick and a bunch of money for Nelson Cruz and does nothing else this offseason, I will drive a railroad spike through my skull.
I will hold you to that. After all whats said in the comments section of a webpage is a legally binding contract. Over/Under on the spike happening 30%/70%? O’s offseason is scary bad!
Something I didn’t know about Nelson Cruz:
Between 2008-2010, Cruz consistently posted UZR/150 ratings around +10, as a corner outfielder. That’s very very good, which is weird, because I cannot envision Cruz as a good defender. Of course it is no longer 2008-2010, and he has posted negative UZR every year since, but I thought that was interesting.
While he obviously isn’t a good defender anymore, his UZR ratings weren’t quite as bad as I thought they would be, considering how people like to represent him.
It does bring up a point I don’t understand. How is he somehow seen as a worse option than Kendrys Morales? Their hitting has been basically the same, with Morales having a tiny bit better BABIP and Cruz with slightly more power. Cruz also can play the field, and while it won’t be pretty, it’s still more than Morales can do. Sure Morales is younger, but we’re talking about two players who are nearing the end of their fielding days anyway. Cruz’s power has been declining, but he has still had an ISO over .200 every year, something Morales has only reached once. It seems to me that Kendrys Morales is Cruz after a few things have already gone wrong.
How good a player is Nelson Cruz without steroids and away from the Ballpark in Arlington? I imagine at least some GMs would have those concerns.
You would like to think he was clean in ’13, what with the PED thing being leaked before the season and basically being suspected all season long. If he was in fact clean in ’13, he was on pace to hit about 40 dingers before being suspended. That’s pretty good, especially for a clean guy.
He doesn’t have much range in the OF. His BA and OBP are average to above average, not elite. He would probably be best utilized as a DH half the time or more. But he would probably be worth the money of a Feldman contract. Granted, that’s half of what he allegedly wants, but how often to those “pie in the sky” demands get met? Cano allegedly wanted $300m. We knew he wouldn’t get that, and he didn’t. C.J. Wilson allegedly wanted $120m. He didn’t come close to getting that. Cruz almost certainly won’t get $75m, but I could see him getting $30-40 on a 3-4 year deal, and that isn’t the worst way a team could spend their money.
Jeff – do you and Dave ever worry that you’ll run into an irate Nelson Cruz at some baseball event, or worse, on the street somewhere? That could be awkward if it’s early April and he still doesn’t have a job. He’d be all ‘what did I ever do to you guys?’ and you’d be like ‘it’s not personal, it’s business’.
Maybe he shouldn’t have used roids to be just an average player with power and not much else?
Nelson Cruz is in the same predicament Jermaine Dye found himself four years ago. I wonder if Cruz will have the same fate.
I’d bet on it. He made a $14M mistake.
Pretty sure he ends up with more guaranteed dollars before all is said and done.
If he gets $15M over two years its still probably a mistake. Maybe even $20M over 3.
Jermaine Dye was _exactly_ who came to mind while I was reading the post, Belloc. And I think Dye was actually a better hitter. . . . But the White Sox LIKE these kinds of guys, it’s cost of the pick that’s got to be sticking in their craw.
7 AL teams had less than 700 OPS production from their DH spot and 5 teams had less than 700 OPS from RF. How in the world there is no fit for Cruz and his 800+ OPS is beyond me unless teams assume he is a product of a hitters park (although his road OPS was 830 something).
If its the draft pick holding him back, he could wait until June 15 and injuries or non-performing players will have teams lining up for his services. Have to get at least 3 years to make that worth his while though.
It also occurs to me that after the Peralta signing MLB might have asked teams to restrain themselves for PR purposes.
His career home/road splits are extreme. His 2013 season was anomalous in this regard, way out of line with the rest of his career. And then there’s the whole steroids thing.
Bud Selig isn’t bold or stupid enough to tell owners whom they should or shouldn’t sign.
Wasn’t Bud part of that group that colluded against players in the 1980’s? What makes you think he has changed his ways. The guy who controls the revenue sharing dollars has a lot of clout.
Bud was also part of the group that paid $280M of damages to the players in 1990. The average MLB salary today is ~6 times what it was in 1990. I have to think that Bud Selig is smart enough to not advise (or worse yet, demand) the teams to avoid players with PED suspensions as part of their recent pasts.
As far as I can tell, 5 of the top 50 or so free agents had been suspended for PED use in the last 2 seasons, Peralta, Colon, Cruz, Byrd and Ruiz. 4 of those 5 have signed with Cruz being the only who has not. To me, this does not look like collusion against formerly suspended PED users as much as it looks like collusion against a below average player who wants too much money and will cost the signing team a draft choice.
yup, and I think UZR can be a little hinky. he may end up a bargain.
Meant as a reply to Bip.
His market would have to dry up considerably for him to look like a bargain. He’s also had pretty bad UZR for 3 straight seasons now, which is when UZR starts to be meaningful.
Why wouldn’t the Mariners or Orioles take a chance on him even though he may not be any better than what they have? The more marginal guys you sign the better chance that one of them outperforms expectations.
Re: Mariners or Orioles taking a chance.
If the price drops enough, they might. Would you sign a guy for 3/36 in hopes there’s a CHANCE he improves your team? The Mariners OF is pretty bad but it’s bad because they have a bunch of 1.5 WAR players. Adding another one doesn’t help unless it’s something like 1/6.
The question is, with limited roster space, why would a team forfeit a draft choice and the slot money and pay something close to Cruz’s asking price for the chance that he’s better than other, cheaper marginal guys on the roster? If they have the $12M to $15M of space available in the budget, wouldn’t it be better served being spent on a player or players who have a better chance to be an improvement upon what’s already on the roster?
Ya, you wouldn’t pay anything close to his asking price. He’d have to be cheap. Certainly the Ms or Os would be better off signing Tanaka
So, five years, $100 million from the Mariners?
As of right now, the O’s plan is to platoon Lough with Reimold or Pearce in LF, and for DH, platoon Urrutia with Reimold or Pearce. A signing of Cruz or Morales (cant imagine signing both) would be for DH exclusively (even though Buck does prefer to rotate guys through the DH spot as a way to “rest” players). The O’s covet Lough for his defense, which is considerably better than McLouth in LF and CF. Cruz may not want to sign with the O’s as he won’t sniff the OF unless there are some injuries (which, actually, are sure to happen, or if Markakis continues his steep decline). Signing one of these guys (Cruz or Morales) may allow the O’s to consider adding Urrutia to a potential trade package for a starting pitcher. For example Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Urrutia together MIGHT be the beginnings of a solid package for a good starting pitcher.
Not into a pair of size 38 trousers, I’ll tell you that much. This guy is going to die of diabetes, or at least lose a foot, before the end of his contract if someone gives him 5 years. So glad the Brewers are too poor to sign him, you guys…
…did someone say diabeetus?
A doorway
What’s a reasonable contract a team that has either a) a protected pick or b) already forfeited their pick might give him? 1/10? 2/16? 3/20?
Eh, somebody will get injured in spring training, and then Nelson Cruz will find a team.
You keep saying that the outfield for pretty much every team is full. But is it completely full or it just doesn’t make sense to sign Nelson Cruz? Is the outfield market closed? What about for a guy like Reed Johnson? Left handed pinch hitting OF? So, is a Bobby Abreu comeback out of the question no matter how well he did in Venezuela this winter?
Who is the you who keep saying the outfield for every team is pretty much full? Jeff Sullivan listed the situation for every team and even listed a team, the Orioles, that are a decent fit and a few others that could stretch to fit Cruz. The point is that Cruz is not a big enough need or a good enough fit for a team to pay him close to what he’s reportedly asking $15M per year for 4 or 5 years. If (when) he gets realistic and either takes a pillow contract (maybe $11M/1) or a multi-year deal at a reasonable rate and for a reasonable # of years ($27M/3), I’m sure he’ll find a job.
Best fit for Nelson Cruz: Rakuten Golden Eagles, 2 years, $20M.
🙂
Total, of course.
I am a Ranger fan and definitely wouldn’t want him back for anything close to his asking price. However, having watched him for years, there is some hidden value in Cruz. Cruz is a really streaky hitter that the Rangers have been able to hide amongst their wealth of hitting talent when he has been on a cold streak up until last year (when offense just wasn’t all that good). When he is hot, however, he can flat carry a team. He also has a greater flare for the dramatic than just about any player I have ever seen. If it was the 9th inning of Game 7, 2 outs, needing a home run to win it, there is simply no other player I would rather have at the plate than Nelson Cruz. NOW…was that all roids? I guess we will find out over the next few years.
Obligatory check of Cruz’s win probably stats
So Cruz has a career “clutch” score of -0.87, meaning that over his career he has done a bit worse in high leverage situations.
Obligatory check of Cruz’s splits
Cruz has a career wOBA around .360 in low and medium leverage situations, and a wOBA of .311 in high leverage situations. So you could ask him to hit when it counts most, but you’d probably regret it.
my answer: Yokohama Bay Stars…
How much time did you waste simply repeating his war number? If you just want to treat it as the be all end all, this seres of nellie flame pieces is absurdly redundant. haven’t you guys written this same shallow article a dozen times in the past month?
Ding ding ding we have a winner! Try to be a little more of an insolent ass next time though.
Because Cruz’s WAR number tells one, accurately, that he’s not a very good player, and not remotely worth what he’s asking for. Which is why nobody has signed him. The post did also draw out the narrowness of Cruz’s skill set, and the non-trivial factor of his disastrous defensive performances to illustrate, rightly, that very few teams have a roster fit even for what it is presumed Nelson Cruz would deliver, supposing that he managed his recent numbers in a stadium other than Arlington, which is, by itself, open to question.
Nelso Cruz is a guy you sign for an incentive-laden $5M one-year deal in that hope you catch the only rebound season he’s likely to show. It’s crazy to commit serious long-term dollars to him.
Waiting on the “expert” piece noticing the most productive offensive player in the AL right now … balthazar? What do you think? Care to join in on this decadent crow-feast?
He certainly is killing it these days.
I too am eagerly awaiting the article where a bunch of writers for this site collectively eat crow. I can’t wait for it to be published. Who has the balls at this site to write an article like that though?
ammmmmeeeeennnnnnnn. I kept him on my roster anyways. Looked like it was a good move. Maybe I am an “expert”