Which of Two Numbers Is Going To Be Higher?

In the Orioles’ opening game last season, Mark Trumbo stole a base. It was his first stolen base since 2014, but anyway, as of that point in time, the Orioles had one steal, and the Brewers had zero steals. The Orioles would hold that 1-0 advantage until April 8, when Keon Broxton stole a bag. The teams remained tied until April 12, when Ryan Flaherty put the Orioles back in front 2-1. That held until April 15, when the Brewers got steals from Broxton, Jonathan Villar, and Aaron Hill. At that point, the Brewers surged ahead, and they never looked back. The gap would shortly reach double digits.

At the end of this post, I’m going to ask you a question about steals. There are no stakes, and this isn’t even all that important. While the Brewers are more athletic than the Orioles are, the Orioles are better than the Brewers are, and that’s the way the Orioles like it. So, don’t think too hard. But you’re probably going to have to think a little bit. And, given the question, even that much is ridiculous.

There’s a theory out there that the running game is in a league-wide decline. You can see how that’s played out over the past four decades:

Steals aren’t quite where they were in the 70s and 80s. But then, why limit the window to 40 years, when we have more than that many years of information? Here’s some bigger-picture perspective:

The running game actually bottomed out a while ago. There was a steep and steady decline into the 40s and 50s, and then there was a re-emergence. We’re now at something of a local minimum, but baseball has had fewer steals than this. The running game isn’t dead, or necessarily dying. Even just last season, it would depend on who you asked.

The Brewers just stole far more bases than anyone else, and they had the league’s highest stolen-base total since 2009. The Orioles just stole far fewer bases than anyone else, and they had the league’s lowest stolen-base total since 1972. There are so many potential fun facts here, but I have to limit myself. So: The Orioles, as a team, stole 19 bases. The Brewers stole 35 bases against the Cubs.

When I started, I discussed how the Orioles opened 2016 with a stolen-base advantage. I mentioned how quickly that advantage disappeared. Here’s what the whole season looked like, in plot form. Here are the cumulative stolen-base totals, over the course of 162 games.

This related plot might help you with the eventual poll question. Here’s how the steals broke down per team per month:

The Brewers’ first month was their least active. From that point forward, they ran like crazy, such that their three highest stolen-base months were the last three months of the year. The Orioles’ stolen-base leader was Joey Rickard, who nabbed four bags. The Brewers’ stolen-base leader was Villar, who nabbed 62. Eight different Brewers stole more bases than Rickard did. Villar alone stole three bags off Jake Arrieta on April 28.

Moving forward, both these teams look fairly similar. The Orioles’ biggest change is that they swapped catchers. They did give up Yovani Gallardo to get Seth Smith; Smith has stolen one base over the past four seasons combined. The Brewers have brought in a new catcher and first baseman. They still have all of their top base-stealers from last year.

According to the Steamer and ZiPS blended projections, the Orioles are in line to steal 34 bags. The Brewers are projected to steal 163. Already, that’s a clearly dramatic difference, but it’s worth pointing out that stolen bases are particularly difficult to project, because they aren’t just based on performance — they’re also based on human decisions being made. If a manager wanted to, he could send every single runner. Or, if a manager wanted to, he could insist on his runners going station to station. The 2015 Orioles stole a league-low 44 bases, which is still north of their current projection, but that team was carried by Manny Machado taking 20 bags by himself. Last year, he stole zero bases out of three tries. Buck Showalter has left the running up to his runners. In the most recent year, they didn’t try to run.

Machado didn’t run. Jonathan Schoop has never run. Adam Jones hasn’t reached double digits since 2013. J.J. Hardy has eight steals in his life. I’ve heard very positive things early on about Craig Gentry, but he’s still no roster lock. Switching to the Brewers, Villar is a starter. Broxton is a starter. Hernan Perez will find plenty of playing time. Orlando Arcia is a starter. Ryan Braun has quietly been a consistent stolen-base threat. And even Eric Thames stole 64 bases over three years in Korea. I don’t know how much Thames is going to run now that he’s back in the bigs, but that’s a skill he hadn’t flashed before.

This all, at last, brings us to the question. Obviously, the Orioles are unlikely to steal very many bases. The Brewers are the favorite to lead the league once more. There’s nothing interesting about the probable fact that the Brewers will out-steal the Orioles. But, by what margin? To put it a different way, will the Brewers have a single month in which they steal fewer bases than the Orioles do all season long? This poll is stupid and pointless. Thank you for your votes.