Who Needs a Dome? Rays Even ALCS in Frigid Game 4
If you’re keeping score at home, the ALCS has now gone back and forth twice. On a frigid Saturday night in Cleveland, Tampa Bay’s big bats finally woke up. The Rays beat the Guardians, 7-3, to win Game 4 and even the series at 2-2. The game was originally scheduled for Friday night, but pouring rain destroyed that plan. The low temperature and a light west-southwest breeze kept multiple would-be homers in the ballpark, and the rain-soaked grass slowed down balls in the outfield. However, it didn’t stop the Rays from scoring more than three runs for the first time in the series. The Rays were more aggressive than the Guardians in terms of asking their best arms to get big outs. They countered a Cleveland bullpen game with a surprising amount of starting pitching, and they got big performances from Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda. The series is now guaranteed to end in St. Petersburg.
Both teams had the option to adjust their pitching plans after the rain banged Friday night’s game. The Rays could have thrown their ace, Drew Rasmussen on regular rest, rather than scheduled starter Nick Martinez. However, they knew they still would have needed Martinez later in the series, and it made sense for manager Kevin Cash to stick with his plan. Things were more complicated for Guardians manager Stephen Vogt.
With none of his most trusted starters available on normal rest on Friday, Vogt had no choice but to plan on a bullpen game, even though his bullpen was overworked. The postponement gave his relievers a much-needed game of rest. It also gave him the opportunity to hand the ball back to Game 1 starter Foster Griffin. Getting some length from Griffin would have been huge, because the postponement meant that if the series went seven games, the teams would play four games in a row, once again taxing the bullpen. However, Vogt stuck with opener Shawn Armstrong, and was cagey with reporters before the game when asked whether Griffin would pitch. It seemed like his plan for cobbling together nine innings was very contingent on how the game unfolded.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
Caminero’s double didn’t tie the game, it gave the Rays a 2-1 lead, which means that when Vogt went to Slade C.in the 7th, the Guardians were behind, not tied. Just sayin’.
Martinez also struck out to end the game, not Adell.
Nice writeup, I missed the game and this was a great way to “see” it.
Rays are showing off their league-leading D. Walls in particular. If Cleveland makes their plays this series could be over by now.
Walls has had surprisingly mediocre defensive numbers in his career. Surprising only given his reputation and terrible body
Given how the defensive metrics are calculated/evaluated, I believe Walls is overrated by DRS. However, he is underrated by how Statcast calculates his value.
If the goal is to get out, then, at his position, Walls was the player with the highest success rate in getting an out. If this success is due to positioning by the team or by the player, it is not clear.
This was the issue I had been wondering about for both teams—how they were going to handle their pitching once they got past their top 2 starters. They both are pretty aggressive about using relievers and have some question marks as they get down further in their rotation. Griffin and Martinez had good years but are pitch to contact types, dangerous against better offenses. Jax is more of a MIRP and the Guardians clearly don’t trust Cantillo to start playoff games.
So what does it mean to have Peralta pitch in relief? I thought Griffin was going to start Game 5, so now he’s probably not coming back until Game 7 (if there is one). Is this normal rest for Messick and Williams?
Normal rest for Messick is game 5. Normal rest for Williams is game 7. I was surprised they pitched Cantillo in the ninth; I assumed he would be a bulk guy in game 6 after an opener. Will be interesting to see what they do for game 6, especially if they are behind 3-2. Bibee might be the bulk guy even though he’s thrown less than 1 inning in the playoffs (and he wasn’t effective).
I was more surprised that they brought Cecconi into a 2-1 game in the 7th. I guess they have to be a bit cautious with the 3 games in a row but that was a winnable game and Cecconi’s not a good pitcher.
Several points
1) It is not clear why Kevin Cash decided on Martinez down 2-1 in the series. Rasmussen was properly rested for game 4. Peralta would be rested for game 5. And if needed, Ras could pitch in game 7. Why did Cash make this choice? I suspect the Rays felt that since Martinez would be used at some point, taking advantage of the cold night, when home runs would be very rare (see Caminero, Adell), would let Martinez pitch in the most useful environment for him.
2) Martinez informed the media that very early on, he changed the grip of his changeup so that it would make the ball easier to hold in the cold weather. Cash was unaware of this and was pleased to be unaware.
3) The use of Seymour as a reliever has been consistent by the Rays throughout the playoffs. The use of Peralta for 9 pitches as part of his between-starts workout was unique. The 97.5 mph fastballs must have been quite a contrast to the softer-throwing Martinez.
4) The use of the pinch-hitter Williamson for Hick in the 6th with the lead was a bit of a head-scratcher. Hicks is not good vs. LHP (45 wRC+), so a pinch hitter isn’t a surprise. However, Vilade was on the bench and terrific vs. LH pitching. My only guess is that Williamson was more likely to put the ball in play vs. the drawn-in infield, which he did. A foot to the left or right of Lowe, both runners would have scored.
5) I don’t understand why, on a very cold night, DeLauter was so far back in the outfield vs. Taylor Walls. DeLauter should have been able to catch the fly ball. That hit raised Walls’ playoff wRC+ from -56 to -34.
6) Cash said that two key events in the game were: 1) Mesa throwing out DeLauter at 2nd in the 1st inning, and 2) the steal of 3rd by Palacios in the 7th. Walls got to 2nd on the play. The double steal was a classic 2026 Rays moment.
7) Rays closer Bryan Baker may be getting batters out, but his fastball is now down 4 mph from his season average. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see Booser close in future games.
8) Compared to most games during the regular season, the Rays bullpen is well rested. With the possible exception of Semour, Cash could call on any of his bullpen pitchers in today’s game.