Who Will Be The First $400 Million Player?
Baseball Twitter was abuzz last Wednesday when Tim Tebow announced his retirement … wait, strike that; the subject changed drastically that same evening when Fernando Tatis Jr. inked a 14-year extension worth a reported $340 million. You could argue that Tatis actually left money on the table, as he was potentially lined up to be one of the best free agents in baseball history due to his age and talent. But “potentially” is carrying a ton of water in that statement, and it’s either bad or dishonest logic to fault a 21-year-old for taking close to record-breaking money as security when it’s presented to him.
The Tatis extension isn’t the largest in baseball history, eclipsed as it is by those of Mookie Betts and Mike Trout, but it is larger than the free-agent record of $330 million held by Bryce Harper. All of these numbers, though, left me wondering: Who will be the first to top the $400 million mark? We’ve already seen the first $40 million-plus AAV this offseason in Trevor Bauer, and that number combined with double-digit years could get us there. So who are the top candidates?
Let’s get one technicality out of the way. You could say, and would be correct in spirit, that Trout has already topped the $400 million mark with the extension he signed prior to the 2019 season. While that deal created a commitment of more than $400 million ($426.5 million to be exact) over 12 years, contractually, it was 10 years tacked on to an existing deal. Still, if you want to answer “Who’s The Next $400 Million Player?” with “Mike Trout,” I’m not going to argue semantics. Let’s have fun with this anyway.
Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: 4-1 odds
Soto has everything going for him for this exercise. He’s excessively young, having turned just 22 in October. He’s already one of the best players in the game after leading the National League in all three triple-slash categories last year with a .351/.490/.695 line in the shortened season. Small sample size being damned for a moment, neither Albert Pujols nor Miguel Cabrera ever had a season in which they matched Soto’s 2020 wRC+ mark of 201.
I would have given him higher odds if this were all happening a year or two ago, but the once free-spending Nationals, who handed out massive deals to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, have really tightened the purse strings of late. General manager Mike Rizzo acknowledges that the club has had some level of extension talks with Soto, and therefore also with his agent, Scott Boras, who further lessens the odds due to his penchant for taking players to free agency.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers: 15-1 odds
If you were to bet on any prospect in baseball leading his league in both on-base and slugging down the road, Torkelson is your guy. He’s the best college performer in recent history, with statistics and data at Arizona State that nearly broke some team’s draft models last June. While it hurts a bit that he was unable to dip his toes into professional waters last year due to the lack of a minor league season, he has the skill to make up for lost time quickly and is playing for a team desperate for a middle-order bat. The Tigers have the ability to spend and have done so in the past when their contention window is open, and in general, things are pointing in the right direction in Detroit.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: 40-1 odds
This is a fun long shot. Yes, he’s still without a professional stat line, but this is a player with special upside and both tools and skills well beyond his 18 years. I anticipate the Yankees pushing him a bit in 2021 with a full-season assignment stateside, which should easily get him back on the plus side of the age/development curve. There is obviously a ton than can go wrong between now and any future extension talks, but this is a potential impact player who could arrive quickly on a team that is generally happy to write big checks.
Wander Franco, SS, Rays: 100-1 odds
It’s all lined up, right? Any reasonable list of the top prospects in baseball has Franco in the top position. I not only wouldn’t respect any list without Franco at No. 1, but I’d also be disappointed in anyone who even saw it as a debate. He’s a generational talent, he’s 19, and he’s nearly big league ready.
The biggest issue here is the team he plays for. The Rays don’t hand out $400 million extensions; they don’t even do fractions of that. They trade away really good players before their arbitration years are up. The only scenario that would work here is some sort of trade that would include an extension negotiation window, and the odds reflect the unlikeliness of that happening. The Rays will most likely get five really good years out of Franco and then move on, leaving his first shot at the kind of money we’re talking about as the time he reaches free agency.
2022 Free Agent SS class: Field odds 125-1
The hype has already begun for arguably the best shortstop class in the free-agent era. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager and Trevor Story are all really good and relatively young; the entire quartet will still be in their twenties after the last out of the World Series is recorded in October. Correa is the youngest, turning 27 in June, and while he’s capable of an MVP-level season, it hasn’t happened yet. On top of that, 2020 was a scuffle, and he’s prone to missing time. Also coming off a disappointing 2020 campaign, Lindor is the most likely extension candidate, but $400 million, when broken down at the most simple of levels, is 10 years at $40 million per, and it’s hard to see any club committing to those kind of figures through Lindor’s late 30s. These guys are going to get paid and paid a lot, and it’s well deserved, but it’s unlikely to sniff record territory.
Young Sluggers group: Field odds 150-1
The obvious name here is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who I’m sure the Blue Jays would love to extend, and if that doesn’t work out, he’s a free agent at 26. Still, as talented as he is, he’s yet to put up anything close to the huge numbers Tatis has, with a wRC+ of just 107 in his two abbreviated seasons. He also doesn’t play a premium position, so his bat-only status and the lessons learned in giving excessively long contracts to such players, especially the aforementioned Pujols and Cabrera, could leave teams cautious.
Rafael Devers also enters the fray here simply because he will also be quite young (27) when free agency hits, but he’s nowhere near the kind of talent to generate a record contract. Cody Bellinger offers far more athleticism than most sluggers but will be 28 when he heads to free agency, and it’s hard seeing him get the necessary contract length.
Every pitcher in baseball: Field odds 300-1
Heading into 2020, Gerrit Cole was coming off a pair of Cy Young seasons, checked every scouting box in terms of stuff and command, and had proved he could stay healthy and handle a big workload. The richest team in baseball wanted him, and the net result was a $324 million deal. It was the perfect storm, and yet it still fell more than $75 million short, and I think that record for a pitcher is going to last a long while. It’s hard to see any team having the comfort in any hurler’s future health to assure a decade long commitment at a Bauer-esque AAV.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
If Soto doesn’t do it, it’ll have to be whoever the next young phenom is (Wander Franco, for instance).
Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I think the fact that Soto isn’t likely to sign an extension helps him. Teams other than the Rockies usually get a bit of a discount when they sign home-grown stars to extensions. Soto hitting free agency means the Nationals will be bidding against other teams that have historically spent a lot, making him more likely to hit the $400M number. Whoever signs him will be getting him for his age-26 season, meaning a Harper-length contract is possible.
Agreed.
Unless it’s Acuna, who is only signed through his age 29 season. I can see a scenario where at age 25/26, he renegotiates a 10-12 year, $400M deal to keep him a Brave for life.
Especially as inflation kicks in around 2025…
Exactly. If Tatis getting an extension didn’t get close to $400 million, I’d think a player would almost surely need to be a free agent or maybe one year away. I’d take those Wander Franco odds all day and twice on Sunday. If Soto’s getting $400 million, it is almost surely as a free agent, and if he does get to free agency and is looking for max dollars, he’s more like 2-1 or 3-2 to get $400 million.
Waiting it out till free agency will definitely help Soto’s chances of netting $400M but it will hurt his chances of being the first to $400M.
I love Soto, but I have always felt age is a very arbitrary thing, and how old someone looks is more important. Soto is about to have a Bonds like peak, but I can’t shake the feeling he is already an old man.
His defense and baserunning are not good for a young player who appears to be pretty slim with a good amount of muscle, and not much body fat. Most bad fielders and runners are big and tall players and usually a little overweight, but Soto isn’t overly tall or large which tells me there probably won’t be much improvement in terms of athleticism.
I’d flip Franco up above Torkelson and maybe even Soto. Being a Ray probably raises his odds because it increases the chance he’ll either go on the open market instead of signing an extension or be traded to a team willing to give him a market rate deal. It’s not like they’re going to offer him $250 million now for a 9-10 year deal like Atlanta or Houston might.
I agree on Tork, not on Soto though. Soto has proved he’s a superstar which is by far the highest hurdle to clear IMO.
Ya Soto is probably the best hitter alive. At worst, second best. His glove leaves a little to be desired, but offense is much more important, and he is going to get paid like it. Def above Tork. I mean he is literally a first baseman with no pro experience.
I didn’t see the field hitters, but that is what I’d bet. A few years ago no one would of dreamed in a million years that Tatis would sign a contract like this…so probably it is some top 100 guy who has raked his whole career but for one reason or another is outside the top 10 who is going to just come into the MLB and mash for the next decade.
I realize this is all hypothetical but I don’t see how Franco, who is essentially MLB ready now, would have significantly lower odds than Dominguez who may never be MLB ready and is still younger (further from the bigs and will get called up later). So the argument for Dominguez is essentially that even though he is a worse prospect than France and will be called up later than Franco, he could still get an extension first because the Yanks could afford it if everyone pans out while the Rays can’t.
To get a $400M contract a player has to:
-Be MLB ready at a young age
-Makes the bigs
-Be a superstar young
-Play for a team that has the money to extend you or make it to FA young
This is crazy we’re talking an 80 FV prospect versus a 50. There’s just no way JD’s odds of making it to $400M first are greater than Franco when Franco’s odds of becoming a superstar are way higher given his pedigree and performance to date. Too much weight was given to team here. I’d probably make the same argument against Torkelson, though at least Tork has better odds of playing in the bigs than JD right now.
Sure, it’s completely fun and hypothetical, but I think Franco’s team absolutely obliterates his chances.
I am really struggling to follow your logic. If Franco hits the bigs at some point this or next year, hits free agency when he’s 27 or whatever he would be as the next A-Rod, why would that hurt his earning power? Him getting an early extension would foreclose any chance of him hitting $400M. I mean, sure, he might not be the next A-Rod, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the Rays.
It’s not a question of which player is most likely to earn $400M over their career; it’s a question of which player is most like to get a single contract of $400M. The Rays will likely ensure that Franco will be 27 when he signs his first multi-year contract. Dominguez might be able to sign a deal for 15 years, buying out his arb years, whereas it’s very unlikely Franco is going to have that opportunity.
Dominguez is 18 years old and literally has not played a game of professional ball. Are you really saying that it is likely he will reach the majors at a younger age than Wander Franco? I mean, why Jasson Dominguez and not Elijah Green? What do you think Dominguez’s timeline will be? Franco is Rule 5 eligible this winter; he’ll be on the Rays roster not a day later than the super-two deadline in 2022.
I’m not saying I agree with the odds… but I think the logic is that Franco will not have the opportunity to sign a huge contract before 2027 or 2028 if we agree that the Rays won’t be the team to do it and are unlikely to trade him.
I don’t think Dominguez will make the majors at a younger age, but if she shows out at age “x” then it is conceivable the Yankees could sign him to a $400M deal in his first couple of seasons, when he will be younger than Franco and have more room for a team to project on >10-12 years.
That is potentially a possible pathway…but there are so many “ifs” in that statement it’s hard for me to imagine that the odds would be higher for Dominguez through that route than Franco through free agency.
Yup… like I said, I’m not sure that I agree with the odds, but I see the path that was taken (if that makes any sense).
The Rays aren’t reliable. For all we know he could be platooned. It is the Rays we are talking about.
He’s a switch hitter. Franco will play every day, although I think there’s a small chance he could split time a a couple of different positions just because the Rays like doing that.
So he’ll be six or seven years older than Tatis and thus six or seven seasons more than Tatis and get 60 million more? Tough one to crack there. Keep in mind that I set him as the fourth most likely in baseball, so it’s not like I’m insulting the dude.
Why is that your total odds add up to like 35 percent or so? That doesn’t make any sense.
Because he thinks there’s only a ~35% chance that anyone playing now ever gets a $400M contract?
Six or seven years older than Tatis and the ability to negotiate with a bunch of other teams!
To be fair, my big issue with this isn’t that Franco’s odds are too low, because there are some long odds on any single player making $400M no matter how awesome they are. It’s the idea that Franco (or any other player) is more likely to get to $400M through a contract extension where presumably they’re buying out his arb years worth ~50M or something instead of through John Henry and Steven Cohen (or whoever) both irrationally deciding they need the best player on the planet so they can brag to their friends.
When’s the last time the Rays kept a guy to FA? Franco in
all likelihood willl get traded with at least 1 year to go before FA.
I just think team is being overweighted when ‘becoming a superstar worth $400m’ is the most important requirement here. And outside of Soto, Franco has the best odds of being a superstar.
It won’t matter one bit if JD is on the Yankees if his hit tool never materializes.
yea I was surprised by the comments. no way he doesn’t get traded before FA. Lets say he becomes what everyone expects he will be, superstar, blah blah. The Rays window is always open, and even if they win they are going to flip him for 7 controllable players and continue on as they were.
Let’s say Franco has to hit his 80th-percentile outcome to be worth a $400M contract in his mid-20s (1 in 5). What are the odds that the Rays then do a Betts or Lindor-type trade? I’d say at least 1 in 5 for that, too. So I’d comfortably be buying at 25-1.
And Franco is only just shy of 2 years older than Dominguez. Dominguez would have to turn into a player of comparable value then come up to the bigs and prove it for a season or two before even having a chance at such a number, so that’s 4-6 years from now, maybe? No one would offer Franco $400 now, and even if he does better than Tatis has in his first couple seasons Tampa isn’t going to make an offer. But if he does follow a Tatis/Trout level ascent then Tampa is also extremely likely to start considering a trade by the time he’s facing arbitration, and no team is likely to give the package of talent such a deal would require without intending to sign Franco to a long deal soon if not immediately after. The timelines seem pretty comparable, and Franco’s track record makes his best case outcome far less unlikely.
This comes down entirely to which teams they’re signed with. Let’s assume for the moment that everybody pans out the way their upside suggests (which Franco obviously has a much higher chance of). Let’s say for the sake of argument that Franco actually gets called up immediately this season (which isn’t likely, but it’s a best case scneario for his chance at a $400 million contract). He would then become eligible for a big free agency contract starting with his age 26 season. The earliest conceivably time when he could sign a mega contract would be as part of a trade + extension one year earlier, as the Rays trade him to a team with money. So the earliest possible time he could sign a big contract would be heading into his age 25 season (and even that would be with a team that just gave out a ton of value in trading for him and presumably wouldn’t be quite as eager to open the vault as wide on a new contract), although realistically it’s more likely that he doesn’t debut until 2022 and doesn’t hit free agency until his age 27 season. Tampa Bay is NOT going to sign him to a mega contract, and if he pans out well enough to earn one they will hold on to him as long as possible to squeeze that value out of him.
Dominguez, conversely, is in the Yankees organization. On the off chance he ends up hitting his ceiling, he could be up with the Yankees as early as 2023, and if he actually does come in and play like Mike Trout (extremely unlikely, but let’s assume), it’s conceivable that the Yankees could sign him to a lifetime contract as quickly as the 2025/2026 offseason, which would be leading into his age 23 season.
Basically, if you assume each player plays to their 90th percentile potential, and you assume each player signs a mega-contract lasting until their age 40 season, Dominguez is more likely to get the $400 million mega-contract because he’ll be signing it at least 2 years and possibly as much as 4 years younger than Franco will be, and teams pay more for years in your 20’s than they do for years in your 30’s.
This does not account for the fact that Franco is much more likely to actually hit his ceiling and be deserving of a top-of-the-chart contract than Dominguez is to hit his — call it 40% for Franco; maybe 5% for Dominguez. But the age difference is more than enough to make up for that.
I wouldn’t say Franco has more upside. I’d say the opposite. Franco almost assuredly is an all star level player now. But realistically I’d put him in the 130 wRC+ range capped. Great player, probably an all star, but his batted ball profile to me caps his upside. Dominguez can literally be anything from never being in the MLB to the goat. We have to see him play, no one truly has any clue.
I think Lindor and Bellinger deserve their own individual odds and Id take them over any prospect not named Wander Franco.
I’d go:
Soto: 35%
Franco: 20%
Lindor: 8%
Bellinger: 3%
Field: 33%
Nobody: 1%
Totally agree except “nobody” gets 55% chance and the rest rebalanced, lol.
I’d say field has a better chance than Soto.Think about Tatis a few years ago, it literally came out of nowhere. I’d say Bellinger has a better shot than Lindor no with balls changing, and Lindor being the #1 most affected person according to savant.
Soto came out of nowhere too. He wasn’t a huge deal prospect, if I remember right.
I think Dominguez has a really good chance if he pans out. The money in NYY and his toolset is a lot better. Franco and guys on cheaper teams likely won’t give that much to a player they likely won’t keep beyond their initial team control. And I’m skeptical that the Tigers will give money to a likely 1B considering how poorly the Miguel deal has worked out.
My personal opinion of the direction is how Bauer was paid. I think it makes more sense to keep pushing those boundaries instead of these uber risky long-term deals. Because those deals are way way way way way way way way way way way way way way more likely to cause future harm. Plenty of examples in hockey 15 years ago and the Pujols deal is another one that didn’t turn out well and it is just barely getting over. Those deals are more likely to limit bigger deals in the future because of how reckless it can be, so I think building AVV is way more interesting than the volume.
Ideally, nobody. would like to see the organizations scale back on the extreme long term deals. Also would like to not see the yearly averages get so high.
Why? Is it your money paying them?
Lets hope this new CBA sorts it out a bit. MLB used to be the highest paid sport, now we see NFL players making as much and NBA players getting 50m a year and not even being the best player on their team.
This past year is more evidence that salaries in all of those sports could work their way back down some. And yes it is our money that pays them. Any money the consumer puts out in support of the sport is what helps to pay the rising salaries. The more the consumer is willing to put out the more those salaries will keep rising. We pay the costs in the long run.
How about Bregman? After next year he’ll be 28 with 2 years and $61 million left on this contract. Could he get an extra $34/10 through his 30’s? Maybe that’s a stretch.
Bregman has a good projection but I’d bet my left nut on the under.
Spencer Torkellson is a 1B type so it seems very unlikely it would be him. And then Wander Franco (80 FV prospect with actual minor league stats) being lower than Jasson Dominguez also makes no sense given that he could easily sign a $400MM with another team after his arb years run out. Also, given that Dominguez is a 50 FV this doesn’t make sense (though I understand he has much higher error bars than even most prospects). There are other guys like Kellenic that also seem more likely.
As it stands now, Trevor Bauer’s contract is for $102M over three years. That’s an AAV of $34M, not $40M+. Really, dude, simple arithmetic.
I mean it isn’t, because Bauer will opt out unless he has zero value in 2 years. The 3rd year doesn’t actually matter.
As special as Tork’s bat is, I don’t see a 1B getting $300m any time soon, let alone $400m
Neither Tork or Dominguez really belong here. Tork is a 1B who is already turning 22 in August with no pro ABs, and will never get that deal. Dominguez is so far out at this point that his odds realistically are more in the thousands to one range. Wander may have the skills, but we’re looking at at least 6-7+ years before he’ll get that chance.
Realistically one dude has a chance at the moment, now that the dust has settled on Acuna/Tatis: Soto. The other dude with the right combination of skill and team probably hasn’t emerged yet.
Along those lines, how much (more) freaking awful does Acuna’s contact look right now? He left literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the table.
I gave this way too much thought today.
If I had to place a $1 bet for funsies on super long odds, I’m betting Hedbert Perez. Yes, Hedbert Perez.
The value of contracts generally goes up over time, partly because contracts rise and partly because the dollar is worth less. If baseball continues for 20 years, SOMEONE will get a $400M deal. But I don’t think it’s anyone playing today. It’s going to be the next Uber-prospect, five-tool player. I’m willing to bet that Hedbert Perez, based on what he’s done at age 17 (!!), is the next Uber-prospect. And I’m therefore wiling to bet that he’s the $400M man.
He always becomes a stud in my OOTP sims so that checks out
In 20 years someone will make 100m a year, I’d assume
Sure, this is silly, but it is no sillier than Jasson Dominguez and since he’s a year younger it might even be less silly. So if you’re giving me 40-to-1 odds on Dominguez and 400-to-1 odds on Hedbert Perez I’m pretty sure I’m taking the latter.
1) love the story 2) hilarious that Soto leads by so much that every comment is arguing about second place. Soto, with super two, an adequate bonus so he is not starving, an existing projection for more than 50 career WAR (crazy), an offense-first profile so arbitration will be very expensive, Tatis level charisma, a tool that ages well, and a well-established rep (underselling Boras) that won’t start at $1/War like Acuna. If Soto hits his median projection, $pla$h.
There seems to be so much surplus value in the actual valuation of the team itself. When teams are worth northward of a billion dollars and seemingly gaining value every day, players’ salaries can change rapidly if just one team decides to leverage some of the projected equity from the appreciation.
Until we reach a point where the demand for teams is reduced to point where teams occasionally fold I will not believe that the players are being paid the full value of their product.
I think there is another factor to consider, and one that will be essentially impossible to quantify: are some players eager to be the first to cross the 400M barrier, even if it doesn’t maximize earning potential? Compare the Betts and Tatis Jr. deals, for example. Betts got 65M at signing but the deal has 115M in deferrals, while TJ got 10M at signing but reportedly no deferrals. Betts got 365M vs. TJ’s 340M, but I’d bet the latter is actually the bigger contract, though I haven’t run the numbers. (I’d love a piece comparing all the recent megadeals in terms of NPV and inflation to see how far we are from a “true” 400M contract, though it would be skewed by the fact that Trout left a lot of money on the table).
Soto pretty clearly is the most likely but, OK, I’m going to be that guy and point out that using the FG 60 game leaderboard tool both Pujols and Cabrera have had BETTER 60 game stretches than Soto last year. Miggy has had 87 sixty game stretches at 202+. Now, most of them are overlapping stretches in 2013, but from 4/24/13 through 9/8/13 (497 PA, which is more like 3/4 of a season) he put up a 209 wRC+. He also had stretches in 2012 and 2010 at 202+ .
Pujols only has 43 sixty game stretches at 202+, but they are spread over more years – 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009.
This pretty much tracks with my opinion that Soto is Miggy v2. It’s not as exciting to think that now that Miggy is old and boring, but it looks like a really similar dude to me.
He’s a wayyyy more advanced hitter than Miggy at the same age (or really, any age). Higher BB rate, lower K rate (even more so considering the era adjustment) and hits for more power. Soto really is so far ahead of anyone except Trout over the last 50 years it is remarkable.
Using the FG pages and career through age 21 season, Soto is:
– 7th in wOBA
– 4th in wRC+
– 6th in Off Runs (& 2 of the 5 ahead of him had a LOT more PA than Soto thru age 21)
– 1st in BB%
– 14th in WAR where his defense drags him down
Most everyone ahead of him in those are either dead they played so long ago (& inner circle HOFers as well) or Mike Trout. Other hitters over the last 30 or so years that we remember as being the best of the best as young players just weren’t anywhere near Soto through age 21:
Trout 164 wRC+
Soto 152 wRC+
A-Rod 128
Acuna 133
Junior Griffey 130
Miggy 121
Let’s pretend it’s 2026 and Wander ended up best case, what prospect package gets him? What if it’s a Trout station where there basically isn’t a valid package big equal value?
I’ll take the field. Not even a hesitation
There’s a much lower chance it’ll be Torkelson than purported here imo, nobody wants to pay that much for a guy that’ll be a 1B if not DH only by maybe 26 at best, after how that worked out with Pujols.
Also, is there really that much separation between Torkelson and the unmentioned Vaughn? I obviously don’t have access to the batted-ball data for either, but the rest of the data makes them seem like remarkably similar players; at least, it seems a little unfair to call Tork the ‘best college performer in recent history’ so cut-and-dried.
Massive underlay by betting every option.
Perhaps I’m being contrarian here, but Franco’s path seems much more in line with becoming the next Dustin Pedroia or Gregg Jeffries: a very good player and in some years, great, but not possessing the kind of power that teams pay $400 million for, especially with Franco’s propensity for hitting ground balls.
Had this discussion arose last year I would have ventured Julio Rodriguez as a possibility: a player with the kind of power, size, age and potential bat-to-ball skills that get that kind of contract. Of course, the last year has revealed some cracks in his candidacy but assuming he gets back on track, he could be that kind of player.