Who’s The No. 1 Prospect?: June Edition
Entering May, Minnesota Twins Byron Buxton was my favorite to seize the label of number one prospect in baseball entering 2014. Diamondbacks pitcher Archie Bradley ranked second as he pushed through High-A and finished April in the Southern League. Shortstop Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians debuted in the third spot after a dominant month offensively. Twins’ Miguel Sano, claimed the fourth spot, as well as the label of best power hitting prospect in the game. Rounding out the top five was Boston Red Sox prospect Xander Bogaerts, who received a partial mulligan for a weak April due to his being the highest rated prospect in baseball entering 2013 not expected to surpass rookie at bats/innings pitched limits.
Remember, May’s edition broke down the anatomy of the number-one prospect. If you need a refresher, or are new to this series, it’s a great starting point. This month, “Opening Acts” will include players deserving of top-five consideration. “Headliners” will feature last month’s top five and what they have, or have not done to stay there.
Opening Acts (listed alphabetically)
Carlos Correa (SS-HOU) – With a May line of .338/.418/.425 including a 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio, Correa is showing command of the strike zone beyond his years. His .183 average with the bases empty versus .409 with runners on base makes me to wonder if the 18-year old is having difficulty maintaining focus. If this is the case, then experience and maturity will lead to a spike in offensive production.
Kevin Gausman (P-BAL) – Readers questioned my exclusion of Gausman from May’s list, and he was honestly the odd man out after the decision was made to discuss the Mets’ dilemma with Zack Wheeler. This month, I still don’t consider Gausman one of the top five prospects in baseball, but wanted to come to his defense after a couple of poor starts in Baltimore.
On paper, there’s really no way to spin his first two starts in a positive light. However, Gausman taking his lumps now will lead to better results later on. As prospect followers, it’s easy to view a 49/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Double-A as a sign of pending greatness. And while those numbers are impressive, Gausman’s tendency to elevate his fastball was going to cause him problems at the major league level. It’s likely the reason why he’d allowed nearly a hit per inning in the Eastern League as well. The pure stuff is there for Gausman to become a force with additional refinement. These things take time. Of course, if Gausman remains in Baltimore for the remainder of the season, he won’t qualify for prospect lists next year.
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD) – With a .315/.400/.596 May, Dodgers outfield prospect Yasiel Puig continues to dominate Double-A competition. More impressive than his combination of speed and power has been Puig’s ability to limit strikeout totals while learning to handle offspeed pitches on the outer half. He’s a star in the making, but Joc Pederson may be the first to receive the call to Los Angeles because of his ability to play center field. Puig will eventually displace Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford, forcing Los Angeles to shed a productive veteran, but I’m not sure it happens in 2013.
Taijuan Walker (P-SEA) – In five May Starts, Walker has halved his walk total from April while maintaining an impressive strikeout rate. However, some of those walks have turned into hits, redistributing his WHIP instead of lowering it. And while his ERA for the month was up more than two runs from his 1.55 April, his peripherals were more conducive to long-term success.
Christian Yelich (OF-MIA) – Yelich was having an excellent May before his production fell off a cliff. Overall, his .262/.361/.583 line for the month is impressive considering the 21-year-old’s power is often brought into question. His streaky start leaves Yelich on the periphery of the top five, but a strong June may be enough to force inclusion. Additionally, the promotions of Jose Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna have me thinking that Yelich may not be prospect eligible next spring.
I’m also of the impression that the Cardinals’ Oscar Taveras will receive enough at bats at the major league level to lose rookie eligibility for 2014. If he has zero big league plate appearances at the end of June, then it will be time to reevaluate.
Headliners (listed in reverse order of last month’s top five)
Xander Bogaerts (SS-BOS) – After a disappointing April, Bogaerts has rebounded to post a triple-slash line of .276/.371/.510 in May. In his last ten games, the Red Sox prospect has been even better. What’s interesting about his season from a statistical standpoint is his having five stolen bases and triples in the early going. Is he adding speed to the profile? If so, then this is a positive development and will only help him stick at shortstop defensively.
Miguel Sano (3B-MIN) – Miguel Sano had nowhere to go but down after an all-world April. In May, his .307/.430/.545 triple-slash line is still awfully impressive for a player who recently celebrated his 20th birthday. Prospect followers are already clamoring for a promotion, but the Twins are likely to take it slow with Sano. The third baseman still strikes out too much, but the fact his rates have come down each season is a positive sign he’ll be able to maintain, if not improve them even more.
Francisco Lindor (SS-CLE) – With a .287/.368/.376 May, Francisco Lindor continues to find success in High-A. Compared to last season, the 19-year-old increased both his speed and power production. At his current pace, Lindor has a legitimate chance of surpassing both his extra base hit and stolen base totals from 2012 by the end of July. This, while maintaining elite defense at the shortstop position.
Archie Bradley (P-ARI) – In six May starts, Bradley has dissected Double-A hitters to the tune of a 0.79 ERA. With 37 strikeouts and 22 hits allowed in 34 innings pitched, the right-hander has cemented his status as the best pitching prospect in baseball for me. My brief glimpse at him in Chattanooga earlier in the month included Bradley striking out Puig looking with a mid-90’s fastball on the inner half. Just as he was settling into the flow of the game, an ill-timed slide into second base led to Bradley being removed for precautionary reasons.
Byron Buxton (OF-MIN) – Like organization-mate Miguel Sano, Buxton’s production had to come back to earth after a dominant April. A .298/.386/.465 May, including 16 steals, was the result. At 19, it was another fantastic month for the center fielder, who has been nothing short of magnificent. With seven home runs and 25 steals overall, can Buxton produce a 20 home run, 60 steal season? If he remains in Single-A, yes, but it will be difficult to keep him from the Florida State League given his level of dominance.
Blame it on the ongoing excellence by the “headliners,” or the ups and downs of the “opening acts,” but my projected top five for 2014 remains unchanged as we head into June. Bradley’s continued dominance at the upper levels is certainly worthy of the top spot, but my temptation to swap him and Buxton is offset by my appreciation for five tool talents. A shakeup may come in July should Taveras remain in Triple-A and/or if Orioles Dylan Bundy return from injury, but for now, Buxton stays on top.
Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.
Is Wil Myers no longer considered a top prospect?
I’m interested in this answer too, but I assume it’s the same thing w/ Taveras. The assumption is that he’ll get enough ABs this year to lose his rookie status.
Glad you asked guys…the author clarifies in the introduction that this is a projection for who will be the top prospect in baseball entering 2014, so anyone projected to use up rookie eligibility this year won’t make the list (hence knocking off Taveras and Myers).
I think he’ll be up by the end of the month and lose eligibility. This is for 2014.
Mike, you may want to read Jeff’s piece today RE: Carlos Correa’s average with bases empty. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/understanding-your-patterns/
Having played 15-years of organized baseball and reaching a high level, I’ve had thousands of plate appearances and played with and against many hundreds of other players including current and former Major Leaguers.
I’ve experienced far too much baseball first hand to shrug my shoulders and concede so much of it to chance.
When I was hitting well, the ball did appear bigger to me in the batter’s box. When slumping, the ball was much smaller and harder to hit. Can I prove it? No, you’ll just have to believe me, or not.
I played with a bunch of guys who were great up by ten or down by ten, but nutted up whenever it mattered.
I also played with, and was a guy who always felt more focused with men on base than with nobody on.
I felt nerves in playoff games and high pressure situations which made it harder to concentrate and led to self doubt.
When I knew I was better than my competition, my confidence peaked and I was an extremely difficult out.
In general, my comments and observations come from 20-plus years in and around the game, as well as what’s going on in the here and now.
Far too often, we dismiss the human element of baseball because it can’t be quantified or proven through data. My decade working in education was the same way. It’s not that simple to me.
This is a great comment… the impact of some of these factors might be small or not measurable over huge aggregates but I feel like folks in the SABR community too readily (and wrongly) apply a large aggregate to individual circumstances and quickly dismiss things as a “myth” or call something variation/luck.
While the aggregate theoretical hitter might hit about the same with bases empty vs runners on (with whatever correction for fielder positioning), it doesn’t mean a specific player can be skilled (or unskilled) at it.
It’s the same thing with lineup protection – on aggregate it might not be measurable or have a significant impact, but HOF caliber pitchers have spoken about how they would consider who’s on deck when pitching to a hitter in some situations (folks like Herscheiser, Smoltz and Schilling have talked about it)
Mike, I appreciate your personal perspective on that very much, both in general and in counterbalance to the excessive bias toward presumed randomicity too often expressed here at Fangraphs. There _is_ a pronounced element of *performance* in results; all ABs and pitches thrown are not created equal. Individuals respond to performance demands differently also, which is part of why this quality is difficult to extract into a statistical aggregate. Performance issues don’t trump talent, but they are crucial to understanding the nuances of match-ups and small statistical edges. Good to here your view, especially with regard to prospects up and coming.
That’s great, but it does absolutely nothing to prove that the difference is statistically significant and meaningful, not a random blip. In your original comment you pretty much said you were guessing/speculating based on nothing and that it might be the case, now you’re up on your high horse about knowing the game better than other people because you played it. To me it makes you come across as a huge douche and fairly ignorant regarding statistics. A lot of people have played baseball at a high level, but that has nothing to do with whether performance over a small sample is meaningful or random chance. That a small sample confirms your beliefs doesn’t make it any more valid than a small sample that deviates from your expectations. This is really a very basic principle of statistics.
15 years of organized baseball also likely puts you barely beyond high school…
Seems a bit much to suggest Mike comes off as a “huge douche” just because he’s defending his position by explaining where he’s coming from on this, no?
Hey, Ted! Long time no see.
Anyway, all individual players are in and of themselves small samples, n’est-ce pas? All Mike’s saying is that, while statistics are extremely useful in aggregate, an individual human being is still an individual human being and, as a scout, he’s got to account for that in his analysis.
So, chill out, dude.
Ted,
Maybe I am a huge douche then because I won’t dismiss a high school and college playing career, as well as years coaching and writing. I’m more than happy to own that 100%
If you have read other pieces of mine, you’ll see I do value statistics COMBINED with scouting. You can’t simply ignore one to focus on the other. When in doubt, I’m always going to lean on personal experience and prior work done on the player over spending a few minutes pulling together data at the last minute.
I’ve seen plenty of Correa on video, spoken to contacts, and studied the numbers. Unfortunately, I traveled 5-hours last year to watch Correa in person and he was out of the lineup or I’d have first hand scouting info as well. I’m not just a guy who chills on my couch doing Google searches and slapping pieces together.
Maybe Correa’s struggles with no men on are random. Maybe they are not. If it was all random, then talent wouldn’t really matter would it?
If Sano is actually 22, how much polish does that remove? No doubt the power is legit, but playing against younger kids and K’ing at a near 28% rate? Suspect
Watch Pelotero. The kid had bone samples taken out and tested. He’s 20.
Not all that interested in rampant speculation. I hear plenty of it at the park. I’d rather not be the TMZ of baseball prospects.
i’m interested to hear why mike thinks taveras will lose rookie eligibility this year. sure, injuries may strike, but ironically, taveras is the cards outfielder nursing injuries so far. even if beltran goes down, would it be crazy if they shift craig to OF and plug adams in at first?
I agree with this.
Also, Mike said, “ If he has zero big league plate appearances at the end of June, then it will be time to reevaluate.”
I don’t see why Mike thinks the next month will make a huge difference (particularly with OT’s current injury situation.
It’s pretty simple. Another month of the season means 30 less opportunities or so for Taveras to accumulate MLB plate appearances. I can’t predict an outfield injury, but the closer we get to September/October, the less likely it is that Taveras will accumulate the plate appearances needed to surpass the rookie threshold.
I’ve mentioned in previous chats that Adams’ emergence means they can shift Craig to the OF and play Adams at 1B, allowing Taveras to develop.
Entering the season, I was sure Taveras would be up at some point. My wanting to hold off until July was also a product of Adams’ success.
I agree with everything except putting Craig in the OF. That has not and will not work thus far. Adams needs to be traded or train for the OF.
Craig’s a much better OF than Adams is.
Tavares has been playing center and will likely replace Jay
Billy Hamilton?
I don’t see too many people considering him a top talent at this point, especially given his tepid results thus far.
Put simply, if Hamilton was a true top 5 prospect, he wouldn’t be in the minors anymore. The Reds desperately need a CFer yesterday.
We should definitely trust that the teams know what they’re doing when they leave a guy in the minors.
This, 1,000% — especially when a team has a proven track record of bringing guys up at the right time.
He has a .691 OPS in May. I think he’s far more likely to fall down the prospect rankings than to go up to #1.
While I agree with the sentiment of what you’re trying to convey here, I don’t think is really fair to point at his OPS as a justification for how well/poorly he did in May. In my estimation, he actually had a great month, mainly because of improvements made at the plate. He hit .280 with 12/22 BB/K, which for a slap hitter whose only 22 in AAA, shows at least above average plate discipline IMO. And despite the slow April start, he’s still got a 162-game pace of 97-100 steals. He’s never gonna hit prolly more than 5 HR in any season, and his OPS will almost always struggle to reach .700+. Still, if he can keep his OBP(which is a much more pertinent stat to him as a player than OPS) in the .325-.350 range, I think he could steal 75 in the bigs.
Hamilton probably wouldn’t be top-30 for me. I’m just not a big believer.
I don’t see Hamilton hitting enough in the majors to start. Maybe not hitting enough to hold onto a roster spot. Seriously, he has one tool, and it’s not the hit one. His emphasis on the SB is laudable, and makes him stand out in an era when guys don’t nab. There were score of guys just like him in the minors in the 80s and 90s; very few of them panned out in the bigs because they consistently got the bat knocked out of their hands by good stuff. Like Billy.
The Reds seriously needed to sign Michael Bourn in the offseason. He was a perfect match for them, and they had their eyes on deep into the post-season with an otherwise full squad. They cheaped out at the wrong moment, seeing Ludwick (!) as a better bet for rounding out the outfield, and spent wa-a-ay too much time trying to get Scott Rolen to come back rather than moving on (and up). The going rate to fill the crater in CF now—no way has Choo _ever_ been a centerfielder, though he can handle a corner spot—will be much more costly to fill now.
What do you think of Jameson Taillon? He seems to be looking more impressive than fellow rotation mate Gerrit Cole and his curveball is something to behold.
Very good to excellent pitching prospect, but not a contender for the top dog in baseball. I’d rather have Bradley and Walker at a minimum. I’d take an injured Bundy over him as well. Now that I think of it, give me Wheeler too.
Which soon-to-be-draftee would you give the best chance of being your #1 overall prospect heading into 2014? And, yes, you must pick one of them.
Not really my thing. Once a player is drafted, I’ll start to pay more attention.
I know he’s not really in the conversation, but George Springer to me looks just as good as Myers. And he has more speed and plays cf! I’m not sure why he doesn’t get any consideration as a top 10 prospect right now.
Honestly, I spent awhile looking at Springer as a candidate for the opening acts. He was the final cut actually as I chose to discuss Puig again over him.
For me, it’s just too hard to consider a player with an ’89 birthday and a propensity for striking out for the top spot. I believe Springer will be a quality Major Leaguer, but it’s probably as a Mike Cameron type.
Thanks for list. Hard to argue the players and rationale. If it is not to much trouble, who are the next few names considered? Particularly curious if Polanco and Odor were given any thought.
Hey Duke, the opening acts are other guys I’m considering right now. odor is doing quite well, but doesn’t have the ceiling of a candidate for the top prospect in baseball.
As for Polanco, no prospect in the history of Baseball America top-100’s has risen from #51 to #1. The lowest ranked player to make the jump was #34. He’s off to a fine start, but I don’t think there’s anything he could do as a prospect to be #1.
Not arguing one prospect over the other, but Polanco was ranked (BA) just four spots behind Puig (#47), and you have Puig considered an opening act. Can you elaborate on the long term differences between the two that make Puig part of the discussion and Polanco out of it?
In other words (asking, not stating), if Polanco can be 70% of Puig offensively, can’t he be considered a better baseball player when factoring in his defense? Kind or seems to get the defensive “bump” in value at SS and CF is pretty premium as well
Lindor gets the bump, not “kind of”
I think this is being a bit unfair to Puig. To me, it seems as if he was ranked artificially low because he was a relative unknown and reports were varied. Polanco had already been stateside for awhile and the industry was more familiar.
Then, you have Puig hitting .500 in spring training with the big league club and dominating at the upper levels.
If I continue to do this piece next season and Polanco is still producing at a high rate in Double-A, then he might be mentioned every month. Right now, I just think it’s a bit too early.
Thanks for the reply. Keep the good work coming. I look forward to the newsletters.
The Nationals don’t seem to want to give Anthony Rendon any more playing time this year …
Someone has to say it. PROFAR.
No, I’m not saying he is going to be a top prospect in 2014. Its just that his name needed to be included in the comment section. Every comment section. On every post. On every website.
I’ve written about Profar everywhere. Fact is he won’t be prospect eligible for 2014.
I thought Puig was too immature to be a big leaguer? Why is he on this list? I mean his immaturity from one game warranted an entire piece, must be terrible.
What’s awesome about this comment is that it’s made without,
A. Knowing how many times I’ve actually seen Puig in person
B. Knowing what else I’ve written about Puig in the past (RE: A bunch of fantastic stuff and a piece questioning his maturity.
In essence, the cherry picker throws stones at me for being a cherry picker.
Huh, I would have gone with “embarrassingly ignorant” rather than “awesome.”
You’re too nice.
If Jose Fernandez was still a prospect, how would he rank with the likes of Bradley, Walker and Bumdy?
He’d have to be right there.
Do you think Bundy pitches at all this year? The bum elbow has to be worrisome, I really hope it doesn’t turn into TJ that would be a huge bummer. IF he does come back healthy I would put money on him being up with the big club, especially seeing how the Orioles rotation has performed so far.
How close is Jorge soler to being considered?
Puigs up guys…and boy does it look like he’ll be a goodun.
Drafted Dahl over him in my offseason prospect draft due to him being a relative unknown, and so unsuprisingly have been regretting it like hell since. Also beaten too him in my non-keeper….but im still looking forward to watching him!
And is Myers really actually that good? A comparison between Myers and Puig lets say, who do you think’s the better overall fantasy player?
Seems Myers values tied up a lot in the fact he’s got power, and we’ll know he’ll get the call soon. If you compared his other peripherals like K rate with Puig I bet I know who’d come on top.