Why Is Matt Cain Struggling
Walk around AT&T Park and ask people inside and outside of the organization what’s wrong with Matt Cain and you’ll get a different answer every time:
“He’s tipping his pitches from the stretch.”
“It’s just the Cardinals, that’s all.”
“The Cardinals got our signs from Bengie Molina.”
“It’s his command.”
It’s worth trying each pair of pants on, but there’s also one person who might have special insight on this matter. Matt Cain.
The Cardinals thing is just weird. Take his two starts against them out of his line this year, and he’s got an 4.04 ERA and a couple bad starts in hitter’s havens (Milwaukee and Colorado). Pitcher vs. team stats are iffy over long hauls, but last year the Cardinals scored nine runs in 11.2 regular season innings, and this year’s team is similar in structure. Still, over his entire career, Cain has had a 3.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, and against the Cardinals, in 57 innings, he’s had a 6.63 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Other than the Brewers (and their park) and a few American League teams he’s seen once or twice, the Cardinals are his bane. His successes against them pale in comparison to the troubles he’s had against the team.
Because it’s gone on his whole career, it’s hard to blame any one thing that’s happening right now. Sure, Bengie Molina joined the Cardinals’ coaching staff. And Mike Matheny is their manager. Neither was there in 2008 when the Cards ran a nine spot up on him in 3.2 innings. If this recent outburst is due to some sign-stealage, we’d have a heck of a time proving it. That’s often done by the baserunners, who aren’t on television when they are attempting to convey the next pitch to the batter.
Watch video closely and it seems impossible that Cain is tipping his pitches with runners on. He’s very simple from the stretch, and the glove doesn’t look like it moves when he searches for his grip. But his numbers from the stretch this year are much worse than the league average, and his own average, at least as far as we can tell. Using ‘runners on’ as a proxy, we can see on Baseball-Reference.com that he’s normally had a .674 OPS against with runners on (slightly better than the league average of .737). This year, batters have a 1.079 OPS against him from the stretch.
It could be a small sample thing, or it could be mechanical. Former major leaguer Mauro Gozzo taught Matt Cain his basic mechanics way back when the Giants’ ace was growing up in Tennessee, and he preached to Cain that he should “stay back and balanced.” The pitcher needs to make sure he’s set and has his balance at his release point.
There does seem to be something going on with his release point. Look at his 2012 release points on the left, and then check out his current season on the right:
Things get a little tougher when you try to look at it in real life. Here are moving pictures, both against the Cardinals, both out of the stretch. 2012 on the left and 2013 on the right.
Looks fairly carbon copy. Let’s freeze it when we see the numbers on the back of his jersey (2012 on left, 2013 on right):
Maybe he’s a little out in front this year? Maybe?
This is tough, and Cain knows it. He’s “trying to get to key points in his delivery,” and his coaches are trying to make sure his “mistakes are down” in order to minimize the damage. The problem is that we know Cain likes to pitch higher in the zone than some, at least with the heater:
Joey Votto even complimented him on the ability in our interview:
Certain pitchers will still try to induce pop-ups from the player that has hit the fewest infield flies in baseball … “It’s got to be the perfect sliver of the strike zone, up and in-ish, and I have to take the wrong swing, and I have to swing at it,” said Votto. (And, yes, he agreed that Matt Cain is good at it.)
When I told Cain about Votto’s compliment, his answer was almost predictable given his matter-of-fact nature: “I guess I’m missing the sliver.”
This year, Bill Petti debuted Edge%, a statistic that might help us understand command better. Since Cain’s walk rate is almost identical to his career walk rate, it would be tempting to say nothing has changed there. But he could be missing the edge and keeping the ball in the zone, or showing control but not command:
| Fastball | Career | 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| Edge% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| Heart% | 35.6% | 36.9% |
This might mean something. Cain is hitting the edge of the strike zone less, and he’s hitting the heart of the strike zone more. Too many balls drifting into the heart of the zone means one thing: “It seems like my mistakes are all getting hit for homers,” Cain said. And after a career showing a 7.1% home-run-per-fly-ball-rate, Cain’s right: 15.1% of his fly balls are now homers.
Not all homers are alike. HitTrackerOnline has a designation for home runs that did “Just Enough” and wouldn’t be dingers in all parks. Of the 1760 home runs that have been hit this year, 609 have been Just Enoughs (34.6%). Of the 13 home runs Matt Cain has given up this year, four have been Just Enoughs (30.1%). Cain is tied for 19th on the list of Just Enoughs, but that’s probably since he’s given up a lot of home runs. His percentage is less than the league percentage.
Part of the story *may* be pop flies. Pop-up percentage (or infield fly ball percentage times fly ball percentage) has been shown to have a similar year-to-year correlation as walk percentage (~.6), so it looks like it’s a skill. Cain’s shown it for years, and it’s gone right now:
| Year | PU% |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 6.2% |
| 2006 | 7.8% |
| 2007 | 5.1% |
| 2008 | 4.4% |
| 2009 | 4.5% |
| 2010 | 7.6% |
| 2011 | 4.1% |
| 2012 | 4.5% |
| 2013 | 2.9% |
League average for pop-up percentage is 3.8% this year, so even regressing back to league average would help Cain. Even better would be regressing back to his career average (5.2%). And since he’s shown this skill so steadily his whole career (enough that hitters like Votto have noticed, too) it’s probably a good idea to bet that Cain will once again show this skill this season. Maybe Cain should actually pitch higher in the zone, get his fly ball rate up to where it normally sits (this year he’s allowing the second-fewest fly balls of his career), and take the infield fly balls that come with that change?
Matt Cain’s velocity, pitching mix and swinging strike, walk, strikeout and ground-ball rates are all virtually identical to his career rates, so it’s tempting to say that nothing is different. And yet, Matt Cain is making mistakes. Since he’s always around the zone, they are hittable mistakes. And now that they are closer to the heart of the zone, they are being hit harder than they’ve ever been hit.
Ask the crowd, and there are a million theories. Ask the pitcher, and it’s just about making mistakes. Ask the numbers, and they say that yes, he’s missing his spots, but that his career still suggests he can right the ship. Maybe tweaking his release point and working his balance at that moment will be the spark that ignites the regression back to his career mean.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Great analysis. Did ya ask Cain about the Cardinals thing? Or is that one of those questions that can’t be phrased right.
That was pointed out to me after I talked to Cain.
His landing spot looks different to me in the action shot and the still image. In 2012 he’s landing slightly to his left and this year it looks more like he’s directly forward. I’m not a pitching coach and I really haven’t watched him very much to know if that’s typical, but that’s what I noticed right away.
A wild theory… he is not struggling at all. He just hasn’t been as lucky in 2013 as he was in prior seasons.
His xFIP and SIERA are well below his career averages and right in line with his 2011-12 seasons. It has been a whopping 12 starts. Any other pitcher and you would just chalk it up to small sample size and move on.
i’m sure it’s at least occurred to everyone that matt cain’s magical HR-prevention powers in fact do not exist, and that this is even less strange than it seems?
even if his magical HR-prevention powers don’t exist, a 15.1% HR/FB rate is farther from league average than his “magical” career rate, and in a pitcher friendly park like AT&T is pretty devilishly unlucky
If I told you his home HR/FB rate was 5.6 in 2013, would you feel the same way?
At least he hasn’t suffered the dreaded loss of velocity and loss of control
suffered by team mate Tim.
Interesting article. I know there’s a balance for these sorts of pieces, but I would have liked to hear more from Matt Cain in his own words, to better understand how he sees what’s going on. I like the mix of analysis and thoughts from the player in these sorts of pieces, but I felt the balance was a bit too far tilted toward just statistical analysis.
It’s true. I wish I had the edge% numbers going into the interview, and the Cardinals thing. But Cain is concise. He did not expound much. Only stuff I left out was about how wins aren’t a great way to measure a pitcher, or even strikeouts, but maybe innings are… hah.
There’s something in San Francisco water; the entire Giants staff is toxic this year, and this articles doesn’t shed any light on the etiology. It may be this, it could be that…these are all shots in the dark, and it feels like deja vu after what the tubes went through with Lincecum last year.
I know this: in 2011, the Giants had three All-Star pitchers (Lincecum, Cain, Vogelsong) and all three look toast by 2013. The simplest explanation is something within the organization is disintegrating those players.
Until this year, the accepted narrative was that Dave Righetti was a quality pitching coach and the Giants’ organization was one of the best in the world at scouting and developing young arms.
Given that, and the two championships in three years, shouldn’t they get more than a half-season’s benefit of the doubt before we decide that SF is a toxic environment that destroys pitchers?
Pitchers get old too.
very true.
My gut on the three pitchers Jonathan mentioned would be that Vogelsong is getting old, Timmy’s burned out since he’s a small guy with a really taxing delivery who threw a lot of innings, and Cain is probably going to be at least OK, if not a top-5 pitcher again.
Hotter weather leads to more runs being scored and the weather in San Francisco has been slightly warmer than average. It was 1.5 degrees hotter than average in April and 1 degree above average in May.
Honestly I think the simplest/most likely explanation is just bad luck in bad situations.
His BABIP against with RISP is .333, versus a career average of .253 in the same situations. Even a regression to league average, let alone his very low career average, would probably significantly help his numbers.
would explain the OPS against with runners on.
Toss out the stats. He’s grooving pitches in the heart of the plate and missing the corners slightly. That’s about it. Why is his control slightly off? Hard to say but that is the issue.
Interesting, because the stats say exactly what you just said. Missing the edges and hitting the heart of the plate.
This has to be it, plus maybe a little bit of bad luck. But is this something that can be fixed, and can they do it mid-season? I think those are the big questions here.
Thank you. It’s really as simple as you describe. Last night you saw the old Matt Cain. His command was much like the old Cain. Sure enough the results followed.
I do appreciate this topic. Someone is actually searching for REASONS the numbers are what they are…amazing.
Yes, he’s out front. His old coach is right, he needs to stay back so that he can get on top of the ball. Look at his fastball movement – he’s steadily losing rise on it. The result of coming around the ball instead of on top of it, from being out in front, and having to catch up by cheating on his arm angle. There’s only two reasons for this to happen – mechanical laziness, or injury. The maintenance of his velocity suggests its probably the former.
It looks like he’s shifted his foot position from the 3B side of the rubber more to the middle. Look at the freeze-frame gifs. In 2012, his foot is clearly at the far right side. In 2013 it looks like his foot is in the middle or even maybe a touch to the 1B side.
You can also see the difference in his head position. Again, looking at the freeze-frame gifs, in 2012 you can see a bit of the plate on either side of his head. In 2013, you can see a chunk of the plate to the right of his head, but none of the plate to the left of his head.
So, assuming he’s shifted away from the 3B side of the rubber in 2013, the question is how would that impact his pitches? I’ll leave that to others to comment on.
That explains most of the release point graph. Good eye!
Wasn’t there something earlier this year about the Red Sox pitchers shifting the foot TOWARDS the 3B side and getting positive results? Now we see evidence, limited, that Cain may have shifted AWAY from the 3B side with negative results.
I’ve never pitched, so I ask the question blindly, is there something to positioning your feet to the 3B side to improve your pitches???
Doesn’t Romo essentially teeter on the edge of the 1B side of the mound?
It was a big deal for Rodney, moving to the 1B side last year, but now it’s not working. I think it can change the angle on some pitches and be a big deal, but I’m not qualified to say how exactly it works.
For the side to side gifs it looks like his hips are coming around a little late too. This would effect his release point and, I would think, control. It also makes me a bit worried that he will be getting hurt soon.
Good call on the hips, looks like it could be affecting his release point, which I would think could definitely affect control. Maybe he’s hurting a little bit now and trying to hide it?
Maybe it’s just that Cain’s peripherals are catching up to him.
Cain’s peripherals have never suggested that he should be the worst starter in the National League
Don’t underestimate how the slight difference in arm slot can affect a pitcher like Cain. If a little sink changes to a little run, those pitches are more likely to find barrels than miss them, and if more of his pitches are running back into the zone from the black by even an inch or two, that will make a huge difference.
Votto’s quote doesn’t include anything about Cain. You added the parenthesis in the article you’re quoting. Hint: look for the quotation marks.
Except that he did say that. And I was paraphrasing. Not all quotes are in quotes.
‘Joey Votto even complimented him on the ability in our interview:
Certain pitchers will still try to induce pop-ups from the player that has hit the fewest infield flies in baseball … “It’s got to be the perfect sliver of the strike zone, up and in-ish, and I have to take the wrong swing, and I have to swing at it,” said Votto. (And, yes, Matt Cain is good at it.)
When I told Cain about Votto’s compliment, his answer was almost predictable given his matter-of-fact nature: “I guess I’m missing the sliver.”’
The parentheses are outside of the quote – looks like the compliment came from the Fangraphs author?
I don’t have to put everything he says in quotes. It would make sense for me to write “and yes” if he didn’t reply to a question I had, which was “is Matt Cain good at this.”
Well, I wouldn’t suggest that you *have* to do anything. If you want people to read something as a direct quote as opposed to an annotation, you might want to reconsider it.
It’s a paraphrase. I asked him “Is Matt Cain good at this” and he said “yes.” How was I supposed to use direct quotes to represent that? In a way you’d like to read, I should say.
Something like, “when asked if Matt Cain is good at this, Votto affirmed” would work. As written, I can only interpret the text in parentheses as an author annotation.
I think this is a common English thing, not a me thing. Some evidence of that would be the simulpost above mine, which came to the same conclusion. None of this is a personal attack, just a question/correction. Perhaps I should duck as I add that, “why is Matt Cain struggling” is a question, and that the title has no question mark? 🙂
No, no, you’re right. It’s obviously on me, looks like. And the edit was easy enough.
AS for the title, I love not putting questions marks on obvious questions. I’m a strange one.
Cool. Cheers, and thanks for the articles 🙂
That boy ain’t right…
If his hips aren’t opening like someone said then that probably explains why he shifted to the center of the rubber. His hips aren’t opening enough to reach the outside corner so he had to shift over on the rubber to compensate and be able to control his pitches on that side of the plate. I haven’t had the chance to watch him this year to see how his command is on that corner but just a theory.
Great article. The Cardinals thing is strange. Seems to only apply to the regular season, though. Look what he did in the 2012 NLCS against them:
6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, -.077 WPA
5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, .155 WPA
Not earth-shattering, but a 2.18 ERA in two high-pressure situations (the second game was Game 7).
As for this year, a bit of bad luck might be part of the problem. In 2013, his BABIP against the Cardinals is .485. His BABIP against everyone else is .299.
Also kind of interesting, he’s given up 13 HR this year, but none to the Cardinals.
There’s a lot of San Francisco “summer” yet.
“15.1% of his homers are leaving the yard on fly balls.”
I would have guessed it was 100%, who knew!
🙂
Whoof. Thanks! Fixed.
Yeah, but how exciting would it be if 85% of the home runs given up were inside the park?
He’s struggling because he doesn’t want to be on my fantasy team.
Not one comment about workload? Especially since this is about San Francisco, who have Vogelsong and Lincecum struggling, and even MadBum struggling. And all of those pitchers pitched into November last year. Vogelsong pitched in the WBC. And Cain, MadBum, and Lincecum all pitched into November in 2010 as well?
These Giants pitchers have put up an insane workload over 2010-2012.
2 of the last 3 seasons were extended by the playoffs and World Series. 2010 had an effect on the 2011 Giants. Should we think 2012 did not have an effect also
Except that the pitching wasn’t a problem in 2011. Cain, Lincecum, and Vogelsong were all fantastic. Lincecum and Vogelsong were in the NL top 5 in ERA. Bumgarner got off to a rough start but was maybe the best of all of them from June on. Of course, they were all two years younger, and now it’s been two postseason runs, not one.
If he doesn’t get this fixed, it’s not like they owe the guy 90 million or something crazy. oh wait, that’s exactly what they’ll owe. I bet he’ll figure it out though.
from an old guy who just watches all the games-looks to me like the pitching philosophy changed for the starters. In years past got ahead in the count on fastballs, sliders, to set up the pitch in the dirt to get the strike. Now they seem to lead off with the sucker pitches, fall behind in the count. So walks r up, and also get blasted when they have to come in. Their pitching defensively, not offensively. Important to get that first strike, so they might try throwing one-think people r realizing their not doing it and getting up in the count. Then hitter knows u have to come in.
What do you think of a Liriano for Cain fantasy trade?