Win Probability Update

by
October 3, 2008

Good news! Win Probability and Run Expectancy stats have all been park adjusted for 2008. It looks like the run environment during the season was set a little too high, so you’ll notice batter stats are slightly higher, while pitcher stats are a bit lower. Other than that, not much changed. Manny Ramirez is still #1 in WPA for batters and Cliff Lee is still #1 for pitchers.





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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Detroit Michael
15 years ago

Has Fangraphs.com or another website looked into calculating playoff probability update? In other words, calculated win probability added for a regular season game multiplied by the game’s impact on increasing or decreasing a team’s probability of landing a playoff slot. I realize that a small number of plate appearances will have a disproportionately large impact on making the playoffs and that it would be very volatile with most of the statistic accumulated during the last 2 weeks of the season, but it might be fun to quantify it and see who ranked the highest.

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