With Injuries to Superstars, the NL MVP Race May Be Wide Open
With the trade deadline officially behind us and the home stretch of the 2021 season underway, it might just be the time to take a peek at baseball’s major award races. Now that every team is comfortably past the 100-game mark, there isn’t much time left for the candidates for full-season achievements to pad their résumés, but many of these awards are still somewhat up for grabs.
Shohei Ohtani is a pretty good bet to win AL MVP. But for the other five major award races — the ones that FanGraphs writers are asked to predict prior to the season — there still seems to be plenty of competition the rest of the way. Oddsmakers don’t currently have a favorite for either the NL Cy Young or AL Rookie of the Year awards, and give only slight edges to Lance Lynn for the AL Cy Young and Trevor Rogers for the NL Rookie of the Year awards, suggesting there are plenty of opportunities for other players to get hot and capture some end-of-season hardware.
Still, even in some of these cases, we have a pretty good idea of the collection of players who might seriously contend. In the AL Cy Young race, for example, oddsmakers think it should be one of Lynn, Gerrit Cole, or Carlos Rodón. For the NL Rookie of the Year, they see a two-man race between Rogers and Jonathan India. The NL Cy Young paints a more complicated picture given Jacob deGrom’s injury.
But let’s focus on the Senior Circuit’s biggest piece of hardware, the MVP. Similar to the race for the Cy Young, the pileup of injuries to star players has muddled this field. Ronald Acuña Jr. was scorching-hot in the first half until he went down for the year with a torn ACL just before the All-Star break. deGrom, who was on a great run of his own, probably could’ve become the third pitcher since 2010 to win an MVP. But he hasn’t pitched since July 7 and recently suffered a setback that will keep him out until at least September. As a result, Fernando Tatis Jr. seemed to be the easy answer, with his excellent offensive production more than making up for the defensive liability. But now he could face season-ending surgery if his shoulder instability does not improve soon. If Tatis has to miss the rest of the year or is simply unable to perform at the same level he has so far, it seems like the National League could be back to square one, which makes for a fascinating discussion on the potential contenders.
At this moment, the gap between Tatis and the rest of the league isn’t that big. deGrom notwithstanding, a quick look at the National League position player WAR leaderboard paints a murky picture of who might step up in the event that Tatis is out for the rest of 2021. Here’s every NL position player to produce at least 3.0 WAR, through games on August 2, and how they’ve broken down in terms of offensive and defensive value:
| Name | G | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 88 | 37.6 | -4.3 | 4.6 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 82 | 30.3 | 0.6 | 4.3 |
| Max Muncy | 90 | 31.1 | -0.6 | 4.3 |
| Trea Turner | 96 | 21.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
| Chris Taylor | 102 | 26.9 | -3.6 | 3.7 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 103 | 25.4 | -2.9 | 3.7 |
| Buster Posey | 69 | 18.5 | 8.4 | 3.6 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 106 | 17.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Brandon Crawford | 87 | 18.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| Manny Machado | 100 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Starling Marte | 64 | 19.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 |
| Justin Turner | 100 | 21.7 | -1.6 | 3.4 |
| Bryce Harper | 85 | 26.3 | -4.3 | 3.4 |
| Nick Castellanos | 86 | 26.6 | -5.4 | 3.3 |
| Juan Soto | 96 | 20.8 | -2.0 | 3.2 |
| Will Smith | 86 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 |
| Mookie Betts | 83 | 19.7 | -1.7 | 3.1 |
| Nolan Arenado | 102 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Freddie Freeman | 106 | 23.8 | -9.0 | 3.0 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 86 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 |
| Omar Narváez | 82 | 6.4 | 13.4 | 3.0 |
| Ozzie Albies | 105 | 13.4 | 1.4 | 3.0 |
That’s a list of 22 players, but the two at the top — Tatis and Acuña — are, to varying degrees, unlikely to win the award. If Tatis comes back in 10 days totally healthy, that’s one thing, but if he doesn’t, there’s a real opportunity for someone else to win the award. Does that mean we’ll see NL MVP Max Muncy? I wouldn’t put it out of the question because even though awarding the MVP isn’t just an exercise in “let’s rank the WAR leaders,” WAR is perhaps the best place to start when evaluating the most deserving player. And Muncy’s had a very well-rounded year to boot. Cody Bellinger won the 2019 NL MVP award with a 162 wRC+, the exact figure that Muncy is rolling with right now. He wouldn’t be an undeserving candidate, but he has also dealt with injuries that have limited him to appearing in just 90 of the Dodgers’ 107 games.
The list, which is chock-full of Dodgers, provides two candidates other just below Muncy in Trea Turner and Chris Taylor. The difference between Muncy and Turner is splitting hairs, but never in baseball history has a player traded midseason ultimately gone on to win the MVP. Of course, some of that is due to the nature of baseball’s awards; it’s hard to win an MVP in either league if you’re switching leagues as a result of a midseason trade. The only parallel that’s even somewhat close to this is when Rick Sutcliffe won the NL Cy Young after being traded from Cleveland to the Cubs in 1984; he finished fourth in the NL MVP voting that year as well. Turner, who could return to action from the COVID-19 IL as soon as this weekend, has a shot to be the first. Still, it might strike some voters as odd to name this particular Dodger the MVP, given that the majority of his performance would have come in Washington.
Going down the list, there are some other interesting players who might have a shot with a really hot stretch, including Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos (who is also injured at this juncture), Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts. Projections might let us better suss out which of the candidates above actually has the best shot to win the award. I dove into our Depth Chart projections to see what the end-of-year top-10 in WAR might ultimately look like. Due to some statistical ties at 4.7, it’s a list of 12:
| Player | WAR | Projected | Full Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.6 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| Max Muncy | 4.3 | 1.5 | 5.8 |
| Trea Turner | 4.2 | 1.4 | 5.6 |
| Juan Soto | 3.2 | 2.2 | 5.4 |
| Manny Machado | 3.4 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| Mookie Betts | 3.1 | 2.0 | 5.1 |
| Bryce Harper | 3.4 | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 3.7 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
| Buster Posey | 3.6 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Chris Taylor | 3.7 | 1.0 | 4.7 |
| Starling Marte | 3.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| Justin Turner | 3.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
The projections definitely help us to more effectively separate the leaderboard as it stands right now into those with legitimate chances to win the award, like Muncy, and those who might be more on the outside looking in, like Jake Cronenworth. (That’s not to say Cronenworth hasn’t had a good year, but it seems incredibly unlikely that he’ll win MVP.) And while the eventual NL WAR leader may end up surpassing their projected total as it stands right now — they are probably quite likely to, if they are going to separate themselves from the pack — if you think a 6 WAR target seems awfully low for an MVP award winner, then you’d be right. There hasn’t been a sub-6 WAR MVP since 2006, when Ryan Howard (5.9) and Justin Morneau (3.8) took home the hardware. Excluding 2020 and Clayton Kershaw’s 2014 award (he was worth 7.9 WAR that year, for what it’s worth), the average position player MVP put up 8.2 WAR from 2007 through ’19.
To further illustrate the relative weakness of this class, consider this: the only pure position player with at least 5 WAR through games on August 2 is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at 5.4. From 2010 through ’19, baseball had, on average, five players with at least 5 WAR through games on August 2, including an average of 1.8 with at least 6 WAR by this point. The 2021 field is extremely weak by comparison:
| Year | 5 WAR | 6 WAR | 7 WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 2018 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 2017 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 2011 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 2010 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
It makes you wonder if a pitcher is likely to win the award this year, especially if Tatis is out, but even then, the group of potential options is deep and without a clear-cut choice. Typically, pitchers only win the MVP award when they’re far-and-away the best option — had Acuña continued his dominance and deGrom remained healthy, it may have been tough for deGrom to win, for example — but there isn’t really a choice to be had there either. Zack Wheeler is the WAR leader, but he’s not even the betting favorite to win the Cy Young award, which leaves us with more questions than it does answers.
Thus, the NL MVP field is both relatively weak and wide open. Looking back at the pre-season predictions, I went with Harper, and considering the start to his second half — he was hitting .400/.571/.680 in 70 plate appearances coming into his game last night — he might not be a bad choice from here on out. Most of our writers, however, went with Soto, who also seems like he could be very much in the running with an equally strong start to the season’s back-half: .373/.519/.780. Tatis and Acuña were also popular picks; Betts was the only other selection to warrant more than one vote (my Harper pick was a unicorn).
If Tatis stays healthy, it seems like he’s the easy favorite to capture the award, but a uniquely weak and open field may make for an interesting race down the stretch. We’ll see what happens, but this year’s NL MVP might end up constituting the worst single-season performance by an MVP since before WAR was even heavily considered in award voting. Wouldn’t it just be easier if we gave it to Vlad Jr.?
Devan Fink is a Contributor at FanGraphs. You can follow him on Twitter @DevanFink.
i took turner at +3990, so I’m on the trea train.
Honestly not hard to imagine the scenario where he wins it, he finally will be marketed for being a superstar, and could very well could lead the dodgers the rest of the way. at the time of the trade (before him missing several games), he was the most valuable position player on the dodgers. Not out of the question, especially with a 30/30 year.
All the Dodgers’ marketing money is going towards Chris Taylor this year; not being a HR guy, getting traded, and being the least well-known Turner (on his team as well as in the league) is why he’s +3990 😛
Definitely feels like it’ll go to a Dodger if they end up overtaking the Giants. Otherwise, my money would be on Posey, given the legit numbers and the Narrative (1st place team, bounce back year, white, humble, and English speaking, so, beloved by the media, offensive power at a weak position, veteran presents, etc.)
Giants fan here. Posey has been great, but I’m just not sure he will have played enough at season’s end to be a major factor in the voting. But it certainly is a wide open race. Knowing the way writers think, though, I could see them seriously considering Crawford if he finishes as well as he’s started.
I wouldn’t even say Posey is the Giant’s MVP so far. I’d give it to Crawford (Posey’s been helped a lot by BABIP, Crawford hasn’t). If we’re being cynical, they’re both white, English-speaking, and good-looking, but Posey may have the advantage because of being clean-shaven.
I get that you want Trea because of money, but usually when someone gets traded they do not win when they put up most their value with another team. Not that I think that is right, just traditionally what happens.
Confused about the commentary around Turner and switching leagues in this piece. I’m not particularly sure what the relevancy is when he stayed in the NL.
Now, the writing seems to suggest that neither someone who switched leagues or teams has won MVP. But the focus on the former in that context is odd.
Agreed.
“it might strike some voters as odd to name this particular Dodger the MVP, given that the majority of his performance would have come in Washington” sounds like an odd speculation.
The main reason why players who switched teams don’t win MVP is because
top MVP contenders rarely get traded in the first place.
If you want to make that assertion, you need a specific example of a player who deserved to win, but did not because he was traded within the same league.
“The main reason why players who switched teams don’t win MVP is because
top MVP contenders rarely get traded in the first place.
If you want to make that assertion, you need a specific example of a player who deserved to win, but did not because he was traded within the same league.”
I love this. Sounds like probability or statistics. I’ve always, wrongly, took as canon that writers were prejudiced against players that switched teams. But I wasn’t taking into account the above. Thanks for pointing out a flaw in my thinking.
Well said! I did a little bit of digging (and raised the question in the EW Facebook group) and I don’t think anyone has been hurt in the MVP race by a trade that kept him in the same league. If anything, the reverse might be true. Take Shannon Stewart in 2003 – he was nowhere near the top of the WAR leaderboards but was traded from the Blue Jays to the Twins in July, got hot down the stretch, made the playoffs, and finished 4th in MVP voting.
Muncy is my pick if Tatis is not healthy. Looking at previous votes, it seems that voters still like some impressive counting stats. You need to be in the top tier in WAR, OPS, and have some good looking counting stats. Muncy fits this criteria. And so does Machado. He’s tied for the league lead in RBI. You may laugh but putting up a nice RBI number looks good to voters. (See Abreu last year).
I will renew my plea to give it to a pitcher when it is clear a pitcher is the best player in the league. Zack Wheeler isn’t just ahead of Turner and Muncy, he’s ahead by almost one full win, and his xERA to his FIP so he’s not giving up much on contact either. deGrom is hurt, so he’s probably going to get passed up, but Burnes is also 0.7 ahead of both Turner and Muncy and his xERA isn’t that much higher than his microscopic FIP.
I know this will never happen because voters have blinders on, figuring the MVP is for position players and Cy Young is for pitchers, but if a pitcher really is that good and a position player isn’t then it should go to them.
i’m still somewhat on the ST preseason pick of bryce. If he wasn’t playing horrendous defense he’d probably be leading this conversation. But I still think if he goes off and the phillies win the east on his back he could win.
but they gotta get him to first or something.
Although that pick also involved him hitting 62 home runs, and I don’t think that’s going to happen in this or any other season. He seems to have morphed more into the on-base machine sort of star. Is his defense really that bad right now? I thought it was just that he played RF and so he gets dinged on positional penalties and that he was more or less average otherwise.
It’s unfair, but Harper putting up a 5 WAR season will always be seen as less valuable and praiseworthy than anyone else putting up a 5 WAR season, and I don’t think he gets a lot of support for national awards again unless, I dunno, half the league gets COVID and the BBWAA is *forced* to vote for him against its will.
i actually think most baseball writers kinda like bryce and sympathize with his career narrative. its mostly casual fans that are super anti.
Mike Trout is about to have a 5 WAR season that will be the most disappointing year of his career by far.
Burnes is just 0.2 behind Wheeler but has amassed that WAR in 106 IP to Wheeler’s 147 (four fewer starts). He’s got a good chance of pulling into the lead if he can keep himself in the rotation through the end of the season.
You’re correct, but that low innings total will also hit Burnes hard, as will the lack of star power and no narrative behind him. The only way he gets MVP consideration is if he throws at least one no hitter and like a 1.00 ERA for the rest of the season.
With how unexpected the season is that the Giants have had and Posey having a resurgent year, it makes a solid argument for him to be near the top of the list. With all of the injuries that the Dodgers have had as well, Muncy isn’t a bad choice.
Yeah Posey is definitely a nice dark horse.
Someone from the Brewers also needs to be in the conversation with what they have done all year.
Yes, there was just an article about how Adames has put up 3.1 WAR in 64 games since joining Milwaukee. That’s already 20th in the NL among position players despite only having 2/3 the season to date. He also sits 16th in WPA.
But… it’s hard to argue that any position player is even the MVP of the team when Woodruff is out there only behind Tatis in WPA, or Burnes just barely trailing Wheeler in WAR (with a lot fewer IP) and then you get into the whole “should a pitcher be MVP” question added to the fact that Burnes and Woodruff and Peralta, for that matter, are going to split the vote of people inclined to give it to a Brewers pitcher.
Agreed. Posey is the choice here for MVP, with Turner having the best season but not being the player most valuable to his team.
I’d vote for Crawford rather than Posey as the Giants’ MVP this year.
Simple proration has Posey ending with ~420PA, far fewer than is required to qualify for the batting title.
His HR, RBI, and his 2.4 bwar (all of which matter much more to the voters than the Fangraphs readers) are good but not great.
I expect Posey to finish in the top 5, but don’t think he is in the top 5 most likely to win NL MVP.
Even with Tatis Jr out, I consider Muncy, Turner, Soto, Crawford, Taylor, Machado, Wheeler and Freeman to have better shots than Posey.
If you want to put Crawford up there above Posey thats fine, if you think he has been more integral to the Giants season. Being a catcher has other values than just raw numbers as well. Managing the pitching staff is significant especially when also putting up solid numbers at the plate. His leadership on that team is very valuable as well.
T. Turner has brought nothing to the Dodgers yet, I see no reason to consider him at all. Right now I would put Posey over Muncy as the top 2. Tatis, Degrom, and Adames after them.
This piece is chalk-full of good nuggets
For future reference, it’s chock full.
I was referencing a typo that has since been fixed, for future reference
Psychic… Powerless… commented before it was fixed
He should have seen the fix coming, being psychic and all…
You’re missing one name: Willy Adames.
He has 3.1 WAR just since coming over from the Rays and the Brewers are 43-21 since he came over and are running away with the division. He has filled the void left by Yelich’s collapse with a .397 wOBA and has played his usual good defense at a premium position. Now, he’s hitting better than he ever has so regression will probably slow him down (all the projection systems have him putting up a .330-.335 wOBA the rest of the way) but based on what he’s doing and the removal of a few clearly top contenders, he has to be considered
EDIT** I also think Winker could be in the conversation if he has a big final 2 months and the Reds at least contend, but he’s more of a dark horse
If he has another 269 PAs that are equivalent to the first one, I think writers looking for a narrative might be sympathetic. The narrative will be that he single-handedly turned around the Brewers season, which is not literally true but isn’t that far off.
All that said he’ll only have done it in 500+ PAs instead of the normal 600+ PAs so despite the impressive rate stats he’ll get dinged that way. And it doesn’t make a ton of sense to reward Adames for showing up and turning around the team’s season while punishing Tatis for being the overwhelming reason for keeping the Padres in contention and them not keeping pace when he’s out. So I don’t think the argument makes a lot of sense even if I think it could be how writers pick a guy in a weaker pool of candidates. And if all the contenders have about 6 wins or so and you’ve also excluded pitchers (for reasons that I don’t like either), then…why not?
I guess my take is that if Tatis does come back and does Tatis things, he wins. If not, well, there just aren’t a whole lot of great candidates. Using b-ref (since they have a nice list of MVPs and stats), nobody has won the MVP with fewer than 7.0 bWAR since Jimmy Rollins in 2007. Right now Muncy is the only guy on pace for 7.0 bWAR at about 7.3. Now, there have been plenty of guys in that time who won with bWAR in the low 7’s so that wouldn’t be so far out there, but you’re talking about a guy going .268/32/94 (using ZiPS) which is not all that exciting. Last MVP with a <.268 BA? Marty Marion in 1944. Heck, the last MVP with a BA under .280 was Johnny Bench in 1972. Last non-leadoff hitter with 94 or fewer RBI? Bonds in 2003. And that's before you get the fact that the Dodgers have 3 or 4 guys splitting the Dodger vote.
So if nobody gets to the seeming threshold of 7.0 bWAR, I think it's just wide open and why not Adames? He's been fantastic.
BTW, I agree with you that Wheeler probably deserves legit consideration and if Tatis doesn't come back, maybe he also gets the same boost I've laid out for Adames
I think that “why not?” is a surprisingly compelling rationale for an MVP candidacy when all the front-runners get hurt.
BryMVP Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds to the Hall of Fame, guaranteed.
My boring guess is that it ends up being Freeman again after the LOLMets implode and Braves win the NL East
The Braves need to change up their WLWLWLWLWL routine if they want to actually catch the Mets. But if they do, then Freeman could vault into consideration.
They’ve alternated wins and losses for the past 18 games i believe
They don’t want to take the chance of getting over .500 for even one game this year.
As of August 5, they blew it. The Braves are one game over .500, are 1.5 games behind the Mets, and have a three game winning streak. And with three games against the new-look rebuilding Nationals, they may get even further above .500.
Devan, I’ll predict that your preseason pick (Harper) will win the NL MVP, given what’s happened thus far.
A fun comparison between Harper and the Fangraphs preseason favorite, grizzled WS vet Juan Soto – over their last 162 games:
Soto: 684 PA, .300/.439/.536 .975 OPS, 32 HR 104 RBI 121 R 12 SB, .409 wOBA 155 wRC+, 5.6 WAR
Harper: 679 PA, .291/.413/.551 .967 OPS, 34 HR 84 RBI 111 R 24 SB, .404 wOBA 153 wRC+, 5.8 WAR
chock-full unless “chalk” was a pun
fixing, thank you
I will preface this by stating that my view may be biased by the fact that I am a Phillies fan, and get to see them play every game. However, I think that when you talk MVP, a team’s most valuable player, I imagine taking that player off the team, and what would their record look like if you put a .265/.335/.415 player with avg. speed/D in that spot. When I think of Harper being replaced, I see a Phillies lineup with 2 LH hitters in the lineup (Gregorious/Odubel), both who would be considered avg. at best this year. Segura has been a very surprising steady .310/.350/.440? hitter who has been clutch very often this year. JT, has been better since the break, but didn’t seem like the “best offensive and defensive C” that he was hailed to be last year. He has not thrown out base stealers anywhere bear as often (last year about 45% were thrown out, this year it’s closer to 30%). His offense dropped off alot as well. Much may have been related to spring injuries he fought through in the 1st few months, but regardless, he’s not a MVP thought. Hoskins has put up nice power #s 23 HRs, 63 RBIs, but the .230/.325/.495 slash predominantly vs. LH, is well below his norm. With Harper’s #s .301/.414/.558 17 HR’s (he rarely gets to see hittable pitches, esp. w/ RISP) as evidenced by his 1st 13 Hrs all being solo shots. His 12 SB’s (1 CS which came 2 days ago) were at times when the team was REALLY struggling to generate runs. He stole 2nd, 3rd, & home in a big game where the team was missing 1/2 of the SL (JT, Didi, Jean, Cutch) were all out and the bullpen has been atrocious, as they have lead the league in BS, and don’t have a named CL (Neris was abysmal, Alavarado was seemingly better in the 8th, Bradley was hurt to start the season and blew 2 saves, but didnt get too many chances, Ranger Suarez saved 2 games and was named CL, then had a BS the next day, and now they have moved him to the rotation with the addition of Ian Kennedy, who was named CL, but hasn’t had a save chance yet, but with the team up 4+ runs in 2 ganes, he has come in and pitched 2 INN
, , giving up 2 runs in each outing. In closing, I would also like to add that Bryce took a 99mph fastball that hit him on the face, then his hand and shoulder, which he tried to play the next 2 games after that, but ultinaately went on the 10 day DL, so his GP are about 13/14 less than the teams GP, but I’d imagine without that fastball to the face, he would have more HR’s and RBIs, and who knows what else. With Zack Wheeler, a CY Young candidate, and JT Realmuto(as a replacement) being the only Phils to make the AS team (Bryce not being named, was laughable.Segura should have made it also). The Phillies don’t have an offensive player thought of in the MVP race. LA has Muncy, Betts, Taylor, and 2 Turner’s, just on offense & with a team salary 120M over the cap, they can lose any 1 of those players and be fine. SD has Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth & just added the NL BA leader from PITT. (as well as great pitching),they could still be a playoff team without 1 of those players. Juan Soto had Trea Turner until last week, and they are going to finish 4th or 5th in their division. Bryan Reynolds is going to lead his team to a division basement as well. That leaves Harper as the only player on your top 10 list of WAR leaders who doesn’t have a position player who will get a vote in the MVP voting (at the present time). If Harper plays at the level he has been at, and the Phillies win their division, I think, barring Tatis coming back and continually putting up big #s and his #s being much better than Manny’s, & SD still making the playoffs or Nick Castellanos/Jesse Winker catching fire and the Reds making the playoffs. I think that if his #’s remain at the pace that they been, and especially if the Phillies make the playoffs, then Bryce Harper should be the 2021 NL MVP, and the 2nd place finisher should be closer to the 3rd place than 1st.
George Waidelich
I will say this by saying that my opinion may be biased due to the fact that I am a fan of the Phillies and watch them play in every game. However, I think that when you talk about the MVP, the MVP of the team, I imagine how that match would be removed from the lineup and what would be their record if you put a player in the .265 position. /.335/.415 with average / J When I was thinking about replacing Harper, I found a list of Phillies with 2 LH giants on the list (Gregorius / Odubel), both considered average. the best this year. Segura unexpectedly stable .310 / .350 / .440? director, who has been arrested quite often this year. PA improved after the break, but that is not the same as the “best striker and defender” who called him last year. He never threw the base to fly so often (last year about 45% was thrown, this year almost 30%). His anger is also greatly reduced because of that. So much so that it may be due to the spring injury he struggled with for the first few months, but even so he is not considered an MVP. Ha showed good strength for 23 hours, 63 rubles, but .230 / .325 / .495 cut most of his left arm, according to the standards of his left arm. With Harper # s.301 / .414 / .558 hours 17 (rarely sees servers being shocked, especially with RISP) the proof is that his 1.13 hours are all copies of a standalone collection. My 12 SB (1 CS until 2 days ago) is at the point where the team is really working hard to create a race. He stole 2nd and 3rd and went home in a big game where the whole team missed 1/2 SL (Jai Tee, Didi, Gene, Citch) all came out and NAME was horrible for him. With the league leaders in B and no name C (two are scary, Alavarado looks better at number 8, the injured Bradley started the season and made 2 saves, but don’t. With so many chances, Ranger Bock saved game 2 and was called Team C, Mr. B, and now they’re going on tour with the addition of Ian Kennedy, called Bridesmaids, but he still doesn’t.
.. for 2 leg races. The conclusion is, I would also add that Brice had a 99-mile kick at the end of the day that hit him in the face, then his arm and shoulder, which he tried to play in the next 2 games, but passed. DL 10 days, so his GP is 13/14 fewer GP teams, but I guess not, but I don’t have some funny name (Segura was supposed to do the same). The Phillies don’t want to think about the race for the MVP title. In Los Angeles, the mold is already in them, Taylor and 2 Turner are just guilty and with a salary of 120 million across the border, they can take anyone and punish them. SD, il Tatis, Matshada, Tsronenvorth, namely added, n. L. B. from the Nine Dragons Company. (great as a field), they could still be a playoff team without 1 of those players. Juan Soto has Ng Turner until last week and they will be fourth or fifth in their division. Brian Reynolds will also lead his team in the basement of the division. That makes Harper the only one on the list of Top 10 military leaders without players in the position for which the (current) MVP vote voted. If Harper plays in his place and beats the Phillies, I think if Tatis doesn’t come back and still show a big #S, his # will be better than Manny and the SD card will still be knocked out. Where Nick Olive / Jesse is, the winker will light up, and red will be the one to decide. I think that if his team continues at its own pace, and especially if Phillies succeeds in the knockout, Brice will manage to keep the MVP of NL 2021 and Stream 2 will be closer to 3rd than 1st.
Georges Veidelich
A game I like to play with the MVP award is to take the ‘valuable’ literally and ask ‘which indviidual player would make the most difference in the standings in terms of playoff position?’ As things now stand, that should normally be someone on the Mets, whose status is a playoff team is the most precarious in the NL, with only a 1.5 lead (on the Phillies). So this would be deGrom, with a WAR of 4.9. If you want to make it a position player, the Mets’ highest is, incredibly enough, Brandon Nimmo, but his WAR is only 1.8. This would make him less valuable than someone on the Giants or Dodgers with a WAR of more than 3.8, because the Giants have a 3.5 game lead on the Dodgers for 1st place and the Dodgers have a 3.5 game lead on the Padres for the home field in the WC game. That would suggest it should be Muncy, for having the highest WAR (4.1) on the Dodgers.
Interestingly, though Justin Turner is lagging behind in WAR (at 3.3) he outpaces Muncy in WPA: 2.82 to 2.41 (7th vs. 11th among NL position players).
Of course Harper is right there with 3.6 WAR and 2.48 WPA if the Phils do pull ahead of the Mets.
This is an uninteresting and obvious observation, but I have to assume that one or two of these guys will go on a tear the last two months and separate themselves. I read this as a list of “here are some guys that could win the MVP with strong finishes” more than anything else (and an incomplete one at that, as commenters have noted — Adames and a handful of pitchers could put themselves on the map too)
Its a jumble now, but here’s betting it won’t be in two months.
Free Bryan Reynolds!
Let’s be honest: WAR is important for MVP, but by far the most important factor is the narrative. The media needs a story to tell; if it was strictly stats-based, it would take some power away from baseball writers, and we can’t have that.
Max Muncy isn’t going to win. Not sexy enough and too much talent around him. Tatis is my bet. I also wouldn’t bet against Harper: if he goes on, or continues on, a tear and Philly makes a move, he’ll hit the trifecta: sexy name, winning narrative, and stats.
It shouldn’t just be about stats and the narrative should only matter if it relates to what is happening on the field.
If it isn’t just stats and narrative doesn’t matter…what else matters?
Narrative matters as it pertains to what happens on the field. New player added to a team either in the offseason or during the year corresponding with a turnaround or unexpected improvement. A team that wasn’t supposed to be that good, but is and the player that improved the most from last season to help make it happen. A veteran who comes back from injury and leads the team to the playoffs. Players who step up their game even more and break the momentum of their divisional opponent and keep them down in the standings. All important narratives to the MVP debate.
Posey is 150 PA from winning an MVP, assuring himself a Hall of Fame selection.
I know they are a “competitor” of sorts, but a serious look at the mvp race should consider baseball reference’s war as well. Muncy clocks in at 4.9 using their method. Feels like he should be a favorite if Tatis misses a lot of time, though not a heavy one.
Also, as progressive as the voters have become, I just can’t see Juan Soto winning the mvp after his slow-for-him start to the season that predated (though didn’t really precipitate, in my opinion) the Nationals fire sale. The chances are incredibly slim that he will be runaway most deserving so voters will find a way to place someone else at the top of their ballots.
How is Willy Adames not part of this conversation? By every account, he’s been transformational since he got to the Brewers. Sometimes, MVP is more than WAR or stats.