FanGraphs 2021 Staff Predictions by Meg Rowley April 1, 2021 Well, after a winter spent fretting over the pandemic and the free agent market’s glacial pace (and what both might mean for baseball), the 2021 season is upon us. We made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Despite the 11th-hour format switcheroo, the FanGraphs staff ended up doing pretty well when it came to last year’s playoff field, though with eight teams in each league advancing to the postseason, the odds were in our favor. Still, with the exception of the Marlins (we thought the Nationals would do a better job defending their World Series title) and the Blue Jays (whither the Angels we picked instead?), we had October pretty well pegged. The 2020 individual awards? A big goose egg! Such is the prognostication business. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in; here are the results. American League The American League once again appears to be stratified into the haves and the yet-to-arrives, though our writers see two of the three divisions as competitive at the top. Twenty of our voters submitted ballots with Houston and New York as division winners; their Central votes were split between the Minnesota (12 votes) and Chicago (eight). Meanwhile, four teams received no playoff votes (the Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, and Orioles), while two more (Royals and Red Sox) received just one. I expected Kansas City to be a more popular sleeper pick. I’m don’t think they’re ready to compete in earnest with the AL’s other Wild Card contenders, but they certainly seem to think they are, and it’s always good to have a little zag in a ballot full of zig. Better luck next year, Royals. The Yankees were the AL’s only unanimous selection and dominated the East divisional vote. But the Blue Jays, who only received Wild Card consideration in last year’s version of this exercise, got four division-winning votes and did well further down the ballot, a recognition of their offseason additions and promising core. There are two ways we might think about the staff’s view of the Rays. On the one hand, we’re clear skeptics, with only three of us picking the reigning AL pennant winner to win their division; losing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton can have that effect. On the other hand, our playoff odds project Tampa Bay to finish fourth in the division, and our crowd’s wisdom puts them ahead of the Red Sox (whose postseason chances are better) by quite a bit, suggesting confidence in the Rays’ vaunted depth and skepticism of a Sox squad still finding its footing after the Mookie Betts trade. The Astros lost George Springer to free agency and have seen attrition in both their bullpen and rotation this spring (though they did sign Jake Odorizzi to help pick up the slack), which probably explains why the Angels were such popular picks in the West. Their rebuilt rotation no doubt helps, as does having been able to replace Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias, but if I had to guess, it was the trio of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani that moved voters. Here it is probably worth remarking on the relative scarcity of the A’s. That isn’t necessarily surprising; despite winning the division in 2020, Liam Hendriks and Marcus Semien both departed for more lucrative climes this winter, and their playoff odds sit at just 33.1%. Still, that’s better than the Rays’ showing (25.5%) and Tampa received 12 more votes. Cleveland, which had appeared on 100% of ballots in one form or another since 2016, received just two votes this year. Supplanting them are the White Sox and Twins. We peg Chicago to take the division here (just barely), while in our projections, it is flipped, with Minnesota enjoying a 2.4 win margin and doing even better by the playoff odds (48.8% to win the division verses Chicago’s 31.4%). Staff Predictions: AL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Houston 22 5 1 28 Los Angeles 15 3 5 23 Oakland 1 0 1 2 Seattle 0 0 0 0 Texas 0 0 0 0 Staff Predictions: AL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Chicago 19 1 11 31 Minnesota 18 8 7 33 Cleveland 1 0 1 2 Kansas City 0 0 1 1 Detroit 0 0 0 0 Staff Predictions: AL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs New York 31 6 1 38 Toronto 4 8 5 17 Tampa Bay 3 6 5 14 Boston 0 1 0 1 Baltimore 0 0 0 0 National League Well this is going to be fun. Two National League teams received unanimous support from our voters… and they’re in the same division. It isn’t just that the Dodgers and Padres are deep and talented and set to face off 19 times; it’s that between them, they also netted 37 of votes for the first Wild Card. The Braves and Mets have a similar relationship with the second Wild Card, with the two teams claiming 33 of the votes for the last playoff spot. Indeed, of all the teams to receive a Wild Card vote, only one went to a team — the Marlins — that hadn’t also gotten at least one division vote. Things are less rosy at the bottom of the NL West, where all three of the remaining teams failed to secure a single playoff vote; the same is true of the Pirates in the Central. Speaking of the Central, the concentration of votes in the Brewers and Cardinals might suggest a race like that in the East, but a quick glance at Wild Card columns speaks to the difference. Someone has to win the division, of course, and it isn’t as if Central is devoid of talented players, or lacked for the acquisition of a star player this offseason (hello, Nolan Arenado!). But the division didn’t receive a single Wild Card vote, suggesting our staff was aware of the top teams’ projected win totals (82.8 for the Brewers, 80.7 for the Cardinals) and the mediocrity of the others and saw more deserving squads elsewhere. The super team phenomena is even stronger here than in the NL, but something about it sits a little differently, perhaps due to the spirit behind the division rivalries. Staff Predictions: NL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Los Angeles 31 7 0 38 San Diego 7 30 1 38 Arizona 0 0 0 0 Colorado 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 Staff Predictions: NL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Milwaukee 19 0 0 19 St. Louis 15 0 0 15 Cincinnati 2 0 0 2 Chicago 2 0 0 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 0 Staff Predictions: NL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Atlanta 17 1 16 34 New York 15 0 17 32 Washington 4 0 2 6 Philadelphia 2 0 1 3 Miami 0 0 1 1 Individual Awards It isn’t terribly surprising to see Mike Trout occupy the top spot here; he boasts baseball’s best projection, whether by ZiPS or Steamer. It is a little surprising to see Ohtani in second place, but then if he’s able to pull off a healthy, productive season as a two-way player, seven votes might seem light. After all, those home runs went awfully far and that splitter looked awfully good this spring. Staff Predictions: AL MVP Player Votes Mike Trout 22 Shohei Ohtani 7 Giancarlo Stanton 2 Anthony Rendon 2 Randy Arozarena 1 Alex Bregman 1 Rafael Devers 1 José Ramírez 1 George Springer 1 Cole struggled with the long ball last season (his 1.73 HR/9 was a career worst) and his peripherals were less sterling than usual, but I’m willing to chalk that up to the vagaries of the short season. Lucas Giolito actually projects better by ZiPS than Cole, though they’re separating by a 10th of a win, just as they’re separated by just one vote here. Staff Predictions: AL Cy Young Player Votes Gerrit Cole 11 Lucas Giolito 10 Shane Bieber 7 Kenta Maeda 3 Tyler Glasnow 2 Hyun Jin Ryu 2 Zack Greinke 1 Jesús Luzardo 1 Lance Lynn 1 Randy Arozarena posted a .281/.382/.641, 176 wRC+ line in 76 PA last year, then followed it up with a .377/.442/.831, 239 wRC+ postseason showing that was actually 10 PA longer. It probably won’t look quite like that again this season, but Arozarena plus regression is still a hell of a player. I should note that there was one ballot with Arozarena as both the MVP and ROY, a feat achieved only twice in MLB history: Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. Staff Predictions: AL ROY Player Votes Randy Arozarena 18 Jarred Kelenic 6 Andrew Vaughn 5 Bobby Dalbec 3 Alex Kirilloff 2 Wander Franco 1 Nick Madrigal 1 Tarik Skubal 1 Taylor Trammell 1 In his brief major league career, Juan Soto has posted a .295/.415/.557, 152 wRC+ line and accrued 11 WAR; he’s 22. Jay Jaffe recently wrote about his Cooperstown trajectory, and some MVP hardware would surely help the cause. Behind him is a murderer’s row of the game’s best young talent. We’re so lucky to be watching baseball right now. Staff Predictions: NL MVP Player Votes Juan Soto 15 Fernando Tatis Jr. 7 Ronald Acuña Jr. 7 Mookie Betts 4 Nolan Arenado 1 Cody Bellinger 1 Bryce Harper 1 Corey Seager 1 Trea Turner 1 This is starting to feel as automatic as Clayton Kershaw used to. Not that deGrom always wins the Cy Young — he doesn’t. But he very often feels like he should, or at least could. And he’s throwing harder now. Staff Predictions: NL Cy Young Player Votes Jacob deGrom 27 Yu Darvish 3 Trevor Bauer 2 Walker Buehler 1 Jack Flaherty 1 Kyle Hendricks 1 Aaron Nola 1 Marcus Stroman 1 Brandon Woodruff 1 Much like Arozarena, there are elements of Hayes’ game that seem unsustainable. He almost certainly won’t slug .682 or run a .450 BABIP again. But the seventh ranked prospect on Eric Longenhagen’s pre-season Top 100 is, “a potential Gold Glove defender who continues to progress offensively with an improved approach and more power.” Sounds pretty award-worthy. Staff Predictions: NL ROY Player Votes Ke’Bryan Hayes 20 Sixto Sánchez 6 Ian Anderson 6 Dylan Carlson 3 Ha-seong Kim 1 Cristian Pache 1 Tyler Stephenson 1 That’s the whole shebang. Each voter’s full ballot for each league is below. These tables, like the ones above, are sortable. We’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up, and look forward to writing about all of the ways we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone! 2021 Staff Predictions: American League Author Name West Central East WC1 WC2 MVP Cy Young ROY Alex Chamberlain HOU MIN NYY CHW TOR Trout Ryu Arozarena Alex Sonty LAA CHW NYY HOU MIN Trout Bieber Vaughn Ariel Cohen HOU CHW NYY MIN TOR Devers Glasnow Dalbec Ashley MacLennan LAA CHW TBR NYY MIN Trout Giolito Arozarena Ben Clemens HOU CHW NYY BOS MIN Bregman Giolito Vaughn Brendan Gawlowski LAA CLE NYY TOR CHW J Ramírez Cole Arozarena Carmen Ciardiello HOU MIN NYY LAA CLE Trout Cole Vaughn Chad Young HOU MIN NYY LAA TBR Stanton Maeda Trammell Chet Gutwein LAA CHW NYY HOU MIN Ohtani Ryu Skubal Dan Szymborski HOU MIN NYY TBR CHW Trout Giolito Arozarena Dave McDonald HOU CHW NYY TBR MIN Arozarena Bieber Arozarena David Laurila LAA CHW NYY MIN TBR Ohtani Maeda Dalbec Devan Fink LAA CHW NYY MIN HOU Ohtani Giolito Kelenic Dylan Higgins LAA MIN TOR NYY CHW Ohtani Bieber Vaughn Eric Longenhagen OAK CHW TBR NYY LAA Trout Luzardo Arozarena Jake Mailhot LAA MIN NYY HOU CHW Trout Cole Kelenic Jason Martinez LAA MIN TOR NYY CHW Rendon Cole Arozarena Jay Jaffe LAA CHW NYY TOR MIN Trout Cole Arozarena Jeff Zimmerman HOU CHW TBR MIN NYY Stanton Greinke Kirilloff Jeffrey Bellone LAA CHW NYY HOU TOR Trout Cole Kelenic Jon Becker HOU MIN NYY TOR LAA Trout Giolito Dalbec Jon Tayler HOU MIN NYY TBR CHW Trout Cole Arozarena Justin Choi HOU MIN NYY TBR LAA Rendon Bieber Vaughn Justin Mason LAA CHW NYY MIN TBR Trout Cole Kelenic Justin Vibber LAA CHW NYY HOU MIN Trout Bieber Kirilloff Kevin Goldstein HOU CHW NYY MIN TOR Trout Cole Arozarena Lucas Kelly HOU CHW NYY TOR TBR Ohtani Giolito Arozarena Luke Hooper HOU MIN NYY LAA CHW Trout Giolito Kelenic Matthew Roberson HOU CHW NYY MIN KCR Trout Glasnow Madrigal Meg Rowley LAA MIN NYY TOR CHW Trout Giolito Arozarena Mike Podhorzer HOU MIN NYY TOR LAA Trout Bieber Arozarena Nicklaus Gaut LAA MIN TOR NYY CHW Trout Bieber Arozarena Owen McGrattan HOU CHW NYY TBR OAK Trout Cole Arozarena Paul Sporer HOU MIN NYY TOR LAA Ohtani Lynn Arozarena RJ McDaniel HOU CHW NYY MIN TOR Ohtani Giolito Arozarena Sara Sanchez HOU MIN TOR NYY CHW Trout Giolito Franco Tess Taruskin HOU MIN NYY TBR CHW Trout Cole Kelenic Tony Wolfe HOU MIN NYY TOR TBR Springer Maeda Arozarena 2021 Staff Predictions: National League Author Name West Central East WC1 WC2 MVP Cy Young ROY Alex Chamberlain LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Soto deGrom Kim Alex Sonty LAD MIL ATL SDP WSN Betts deGrom S. Sánchez Ariel Cohen LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Soto deGrom Hayes Ashley MacLennan LAD STL ATL SDP NYM Tatis deGrom Hayes Ben Clemens LAD STL NYM SDP ATL Betts Darvish Carlson Brendan Gawlowski LAD CIN ATL SDP PHI Tatis Darvish Stephenson Carmen Ciardiello LAD STL ATL SDP NYM Soto Flaherty Hayes Chad Young LAD STL ATL SDP NYM Bellinger deGrom Anderson Chet Gutwein LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Acuña deGrom Hayes Dan Szymborski LAD STL NYM SDP ATL Soto deGrom S. Sánchez Dave McDonald LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Soto Bauer Hayes David Laurila SDP STL ATL LAD MIA Acuña deGrom Hayes Devan Fink LAD MIL PHI SDP NYM Harper deGrom S. Sánchez Dylan Higgins SDP MIL NYM LAD ATL Betts deGrom Hayes Eric Longenhagen LAD STL ATL SDP NYM T. Turner Stroman Hayes Jake Mailhot LAD STL ATL SDP NYM Acuña Darvish Hayes Jason Martinez SDP STL NYM LAD ATL Arenado deGrom Hayes Jay Jaffe LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Acuña deGrom Anderson Jeff Zimmerman LAD CHC PHI ATL SDP Seager deGrom Anderson Jeffrey Bellone LAD STL NYM SDP ATL Acuña deGrom S. Sánchez Jon Becker LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Soto deGrom Hayes Jon Tayler LAD STL ATL SDP NYM Acuña deGrom Hayes Justin Choi LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Tatis Nola Anderson Justin Mason LAD MIL WSN SDP ATL Soto deGrom Hayes Justin Vibber SDP MIL NYM LAD WSN Soto Bauer Anderson Kevin Goldstein LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Soto deGrom Anderson Lucas Kelly LAD STL NYM SDP ATL Tatis deGrom Pache Luke Hooper LAD MIL WSN SDP ATL Soto Woodruff Hayes Matthew Roberson SDP STL NYM LAD ATL Tatis deGrom S. Sánchez Meg Rowley LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Tatis deGrom Hayes Mike Podhorzer LAD MIL NYM SDP ATL Soto deGrom Hayes Nicklaus Gaut LAD CIN WSN SDP NYM Soto deGrom Hayes Owen McGrattan LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Betts deGrom Carlson Paul Sporer LAD MIL WSN SDP NYM Soto Buehler Carlson RJ McDaniel LAD STL NYM SDP ATL Tatis deGrom Hayes Sara Sanchez SDP CHC ATL LAD NYM Soto Hendricks S. Sánchez Tess Taruskin LAD MIL ATL SDP NYM Acuña deGrom Hayes Tony Wolfe SDP STL ATL LAD NYM Soto deGrom Hayes