World Series Game 5 Chat
| 7:52 |
: Welcome to the chat, everyone! Ben and I will be with your for the evening. Brutal news for the Nats shortly before game time with Max Scherzer being scratched due to severe back spasms. An uphill battle against Cole gets even tougher now!
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| 7:53 |
: Who ya got for Game 5?
Houston (79.4% | 85 votes)
Washington (20.5% | 22 votes)
Total Votes: 107
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| 7:55 |
: So…not a great 48 hours for the Nats
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| 7:55 |
: Wow! Ya gotta feel terrible for Scherzer. It’s only the biggest game of his life!
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| 7:56 |
: lets go nats!!!
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| 7:56 |
: I never thought I would say this: Go Joe Ross! |
| 7:56 |
: Knowing Scherzer, he has to be in SERIOUS pain to miss the game. Dude would go out there at 80-85% to be honest, so he’s probably sub-70% if he has to miss
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| 7:58 |
: How many runs do the Nats bats have to score tonight?
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| 7:59 |
: I’d think at least 5. Hoping for a second straight dud out of Cole is tough, though, so their best bet is working the count big time and somehow getting him out after 6 with a couple runs
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| 7:59 |
: Hello everyone! As Paul said, brutal news about Scherzer, but worth pointing out that Dan Szymborski/ZiPS projects the Nationals’ World Series odds to fall by just four percentage points if Scherzer can’t pitch at all for the rest of the series. And their odds actually go *up* if he is able to pitch in a Game 7.
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| 8:00 |
:  |
| 8:01 |
: If Scherzer can pitch game 6 or 7, is it advantage nats even if they lose. Verlander seems to be a bit of an overhyped postseason pitcher?
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| 8:01 |
: Having him later in the series can really help, but the idea that JV is overhyped as a postseason pitcher isn’t true. He has two bad World Series games. This narrative is silly.
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| 8:02 |
: Ideally, and odd number
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| 8:02 |
: LOL… good ol’ A-Rod
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| 8:02 |
: Verlander hasn’t been good in THIS postseason really…. ERA and FIP pretty high…..
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| 8:03 |
: Agree with Paul. The reason the Nats’ odds could go up if he returns later is that it would be Scherzer instead of Aníbal Sanchez in Game 7. |
| 8:04 |
: So if it gets to a Game 7, the Nats would actually be in better shape than they would have been.
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| 8:04 |
: Lot different than saying he’s an overhyped postseason pitcher. But even his struggles this postseason are overstated. He was bad in the short rest game. Has a 3.37 ERA otherwise.
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| 8:04 |
: I hope Joe Ross throws down 6-7 shutout innings and makes everyone forget Max was supposed to go tonight.
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| 8:04 |
: It could easily happen, because that’s baseball!
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| 8:05 |
: That’d be something else. Wouldn’t make anyone forget that Max was supposed to go, this performance will inextricably be linked to Scherzer being scratched regardless of the outcome
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| 8:05 |
: @stever20 small sample and recency biases! |
| 8:05 |
: I think i’d rather have Strasburg over Verlander with how both have thrown this postseason though right Paul?
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| 8:05 |
: It’s a toss up, really. I’m a JV honk so I’d still lean him, but Stras is a monster in the postseason. Any notion that JV can’t hang in October is pure fiction, though
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| 8:06 |
: Hello everyone! I want you to know if you pinch a nerve in your neck, I expect you to chat through it.
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| 8:06 |
: I live daily with one, so I’m here ready to rock
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| 8:07 |
: Joe and Tyson are brothers, right?
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| 8:08 |
: Yes |
| 8:08 |
: Last night Smoltz said Phelps should be saved for high leverage situations (good) only when the Nats have the lead (bad) Rodney gives up grandslam (face palm)
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| 8:08 |
: I was shocked by how many people thought it was the right idea for the Nats to save their best guys because they were trailing 4-1.
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| 8:09 |
: Scherzer reportedly couldn’t get dressed this morning. Ouch.
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| 8:09 |
: That’s brutal
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| 8:09 |
: I think if the Astros could have chosen which ace to be taken out- it’d have been Stras over Scherzer in a heartbeat.
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| 8:09 |
: Can we do a poll of who we are rooting for? |
| 8:10 |
: I don’t think so. Assuming some weird scenario where there were able to do this, it would’ve been a tough decision
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| 8:10 |
:
Who Are You Rooting For?
Astros (32.8% | 49 votes)
Nationals (67.1% | 100 votes)
Total Votes: 149
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| 8:10 |
: Padre fans sick about tonight’s game remembering Ross/Turner were in that big 3 team trade back in 2014….
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| 8:11 |
: Do we need a poll asking which Ross is better: Joe, Tyson or Bob?
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| 8:11 |
: LOL I’m wearing a Bob Ross shirt right now
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| 8:12 |
: Walking the leadoff guy isn’t a mistake, it’s a happy little accident |
| 8:14 |
: Massive double play (he states, obviously)
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| 8:14 |
: Gotta believe Altuve doesn’t ground into too many DPs….
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| 8:14 |
: Postseason baseball is greatest thing ever!
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| 8:14 |
: Playoff hockey a close second, IMO
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| 8:14 |
: Surprisingly, Altuve was among the league leaders with 19 GIDP.
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| 8:15 |
: How much do you think it affects Houston that they were preparing for Scherzer? |
| 8:15 |
: I doubt it changes things THAT much. Not like going to a lesser pitcher should throw them off a whole bunch
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| 8:17 |
: Is there a petition we could start to get smart commentary for one postseason game?
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| 8:17 |
: Hey Paul. Try reflexology for that neck. It has changed my life
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| 8:17 |
: I will look into it, thanks!!
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| 8:17 |
: Did you check out the Statcast broadcast for the AL Wild Card game? Those guys do a great job. Wish that was an option more often.
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| 8:18 |
: We had the StatCast broadcast for the ALWC |
| 8:18 |
: O/U on # of innings by Ross today: 4 2/3 (I have no idea if there is an actual line in Vegas)
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| 8:18 |
: I’ll say over by a third
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| 8:21 |
: Any idea who the Nats emergency catcher is if Gomes has to come out and Suzuki can’t answer the bell?
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| 8:21 |
: I heard it was Dozier
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| 8:22 |
: Ya they said Dozier on last night’s broadcast
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| 8:23 |
: that broadcast was a hit with whomever heard it. a lot of the popular ny radio talkshow host liked it too.
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| 8:26 |
: Fox needs a stat cast alternate version
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| 8:26 |
: I was amazed at some of the people who said they enjoyed the broadcast. Makes me believe that much of the popular opinion about “analytics” comes from how the information is presented.
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| 8:28 |
: I have a very hard time seeing any team beat both Cole and Verlander back to back twice
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| 8:28 |
: Don’t necessarily have to beat them, though. Could be shut down by them and get to the pen
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| 8:28 |
: My comments aren’t showing up
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| 8:28 |
: They have to be selected
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| 8:28 |
: Baseball is my favourite sport but nothing beats playoff hockey
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| 8:29 |
: Ben absolutely! most ppl that dislike analytics don’t even know what it really is…
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| 8:29 |
: I’m not as big of a hockey fan, but can’t really disagree with that. Playoff hockey is elite, I’m just a much bigger baseball fan, tbh
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| 8:29 |
: I wonder what the commentary is like on Fox Deportes…
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| 8:29 |
: Probably Spanish-based
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| 8:30 |
: I read an article yesterday in a newspaper bemoaning “analytics” in today’s game, and the only example the author could provide was pitch count.
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| 8:32 |
: LOL, sick article
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| 8:33 |
: It was shockingly bad. He also criticized changing the name of the disabled list to the injured list.
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| 8:34 |
: AIR YORDAN
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| 8:34 |
: QUADRUPLE!
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| 8:35 |
: Good hitters gonna be good.
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| 8:36 |
: Is he AL ROY?
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| 8:36 |
: Easily
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| 8:37 |
: Would you say it’s time for Nats fans to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?
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| 8:39 |
: If this thing ends up going the Nationals’ way, I will look back at the decision not to pinch hit for Aníbal Sanchez in Game 3 and “saving the bullpen” in Game 4.
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| 8:39 |
: We’d take that (yes, I’m on the team)
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| 8:40 |
: The Astros’ way, I should say
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| 8:40 |
: I’m a “we” guy, don’t worry. Those crying about “we” ppl are waaaay worse than “we” ppl
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| 8:40 |
: Will a Yordan Alvarez misplay in LF have serious ramifications for tonight’s outcome?
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| 8:40 |
: At least he banked a 2-run homer to cover any mistakes
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| 8:41 |
: Just curious is it one person selecting the questions for the chat or is it multiple ppl?
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| 8:42 |
: Paul and I are both able to select questions
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| 8:42 |
: Is it selfish to want turner to get on so we can all get another free taco
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| 8:42 |
: It’s a one-shot deal, so he got us our taco in game 1
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| 8:42 |
: If you take a ball to the chest you definitely get to keep it right, another fan shouldn’t be allowed to snag it.
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| 8:43 |
: That is the protocol
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| 8:43 |
: LOL right??
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| 8:43 |
: Surely Suzuki could catch enough to get by. Going to an emergency catcher here would be a death sentence.
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| 8:43 |
: It’d be less than ideal, but I doubt it’d be a death sentence
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| 8:44 |
: Fox needs a version without Smoltz
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| 8:44 |
: The frustrating thing about Smoltz is that he was so good on the desk and in his first year in the booth. I’m not sure what turned him, but now he just says so many puzzling things
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| 8:46 |
: Is there a way to have Smoltz only talk about the mechanics of pitching? I’d listen to that.
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| 8:47 |
: Yeah, what’s interesting about Smoltz is that he’s a fountain of knowledge in some respects. Just not all.
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| 8:47 |
: …does something special happen if a HR is hit 450 feet? Why do they keep showing that “moonshot alert” otherwise?
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| 8:48 |
: Nothing special, but 450+ is pretty well regarded as quite the HR. Harmless little graphic, tbh.
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| 8:48 |
: From 1st and 3rd no one out to nothin is absolutely brutal against someone like Cole
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| 8:49 |
: Robles grounded into just six double plays all season. Bad time for that one.
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| 8:49 |
: I GUESS JUST PUTTING THE BALL IN PLAY ISN’T ALWAYS GOOD
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| 8:50 |
: 1-21 RISP is brutal
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| 8:50 |
: Ouch.
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| 8:50 |
: So did the Astros give up on JD Davis too early, or did his poor defense make him expendable?
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| 8:51 |
: I think some development on his end makes it look worse. They’ve let a lot of guys go that are now flourishing elsewhere, that’s just part of when you cultivate the kind of talent they have. He’s still a brutal defender, so I’m not sure he’d be a starter with them
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| 8:51 |
: Would Eno drink that crap beer with Charlize Theron?
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| 8:52 |
: Sure, why not? By all accounts, she’s pretty cool. Of course, this is via pods & interviews, so it’s hard to say for sure, but I think even Eno drinks low tier beer from time to time
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| 8:55 |
: On the international feed, Buck Martinez just said a player’s value is best shown by their RBI + Runs Scored. What year is it?
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| 8:56 |
: We live in a bubble here at FanGraphs.
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| 8:56 |
: Gross
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| 8:57 |
: He’s no mike petreillo but smoltz IS the most analytically minded of the standard announcers these days…
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| 8:57 |
: Is he, though? Based on what exactly? He seems to eschew analytics at every turn and anyone not well versed in his HOF career might surmise he’s not even a big fan of the game.
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| 8:58 |
: what i dont understand is if they want a former big time player with world series heroics, big poppy and pedro (and even a-rod) are wasted in the studio
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| 8:58 |
: A-Rod has taken a Smoltzian path. Brilliant on the desk, much less so in the booth. Something about being in the booth that pushes them toward the hackier tendencies of color commentators.
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| 9:00 |
: Getting rid of JD Davis wasn’t a bad idea. He was blocked at 1st, 3rd, and LF. Getting rid of JD Davis to keep Tyler White was not the best choice.
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| 9:00 |
: That’s a good way to put it. Meanwhile, since Ben & I are more fantasy-inclined, I’ll mention that Davis showed out quite nicely regardless of the bouncy ball and becomes pretty intriguing for ’20
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| 9:01 |
: Are you all WAR truthers or does anybody agree that team performance should figure into the MVP determination and that Bergman should win?
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| 9:02 |
: I don’t it should JUST be WAR, but it’s silly to punish a guy for his 24 teammates so if a guy on a last place team has 10 WAR and a guy on the division leader has an 8 WAR, it’s pretty easily the 10 WAR guy. Bregman absolutely closed the gap with Trout, though, making it a true toss up
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| 9:02 |
: Get Chris Archer back in the booth!
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| 9:02 |
: Loved him on ESPN
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| 9:02 |
: Wait where’s Scherzer?
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| 9:02 |
: Who wants to tell him?
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| 9:03 |
: Dave Martinez took Scherzer to a farm up state so he could run free.
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| 9:03 |
: He doesn’t know about reflexology yet!
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| 9:04 |
: Chris Archer was in the booth at some point?
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| 9:04 |
: He was on the desk for ESPN a couple years back
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| 9:05 |
: If this goes 7 this is the last time Cole pitches this season?
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| 9:05 |
: Could be. Although Bumgarner’s 2014 Game 7 heroics happened after a Game 5 complete game.
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| 9:06 |
: Yeah agree with Ben that Cole could be called on for an inning a tight game 7
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| 9:06 |
: Would Trout have a better MVP case if he had the same WAR, but played 155 games?
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| 9:06 |
: It might for some, though you can make a case that having the same WAR as Breg in far fewer games is more impressive. That said, Breg is being given credit for posting daily
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| 9:07 |
: Chance this is Zimmermans last home game as a Nat?
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| 9:08 |
: I would imagine he’s back in DC next year.
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| 9:09 |
: Well they definitely aren’t picking up his $18 mil option so unless he wants to come back on the cheap, it’s over. I imagine if he’ll sign for 2 yrs on the cheap ($10-12 mil total? I’m terrible at guessing deals), they’d be open to bringing him back. He should prob go be a DH somewhere, though (of course the NL should have DH anyway, but that’s another story)
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| 9:09 |
: On what basis are Buck and Smoltz saying that Ross is throwing well? 5 of first 10 batters with >99 mph contact.
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| 9:09 |
: Almost entirely based on it being just 2-0 so they’re boiling it down to one bad pitch
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| 9:09 |
: ^ that is a much more thought out answer re: Zimmerman
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| 9:11 |
: NYT says Davey knew about Max before last night and thus didn’t use his best relievers down 4-1.
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| 9:12 |
: Assuming that’s true, the decision not to use them makes a lot more sense.
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| 9:13 |
: Is Ross always this up in the zone? I’m usually an AL guy
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| 9:13 |
: He does pitch up with his 4S fastball a lot
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| 9:13 |
: But the sinker shouldn’t be up
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| 9:14 |
: He’s suggested his is willing to come back on the cheap
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| 9:14 |
: They won’t be able to afford to sign Rendon so they will use the savings on Zimmerman
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| 9:14 |
: He’s very well regarded there, so I think there’s a good chance they work it out. Even if it’s just 1 year $7 mil or something
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| 9:14 |
: Chest guy got the ball!
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| 9:14 |
: Can you replace an injured player on the 25 man roster during the World Series?
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| 9:15 |
: Yes, but they can’t come back
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| 9:15 |
: Who would be your ideal booth for the world series? I loved the Girardi, Pierzynski, and Albert booth from the earlier series.
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| 9:15 |
: That was a strong booth. Cubs, Mets, Astros, and Giants booths are strong, too
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| 9:16 |
: Are we a bit in over-correction mode with “if you don’t use your best relievers you failed” reactions? There was nothing in last nights offensive performance that hinted 3-4 runs were coming.
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| 9:16 |
: I don’t think so. This is the World Series. You play to win every game, not throw away games when you’re tailing by just three runs. Teams are slumping on offense until they’re not.
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| 9:17 |
: I don’t think Martinez failed. Not just bc I know the result, either. Thought it was fin at the time.
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| 9:17 |
: I don’t think he was THROWING the game, but going Doo/Huddy would’ve been foolish, IMO
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| 9:17 |
: Assuming next years ball is dejuiced, who does this most affect?
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| 9:17 |
: Matt Boyd
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| 9:17 |
: Answers from y’all re: announcers:
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| 9:17 |
: Dan Dickerson
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| 9:17 |
: John Sterling and Susan Waldman!!!! Bwahahahaha
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| 9:17 |
: I am a biased fan of the Dodgers booth
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| 9:19 |
: Jon Miller
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| 9:20 |
: Is Alvarez really that bad of a fielder, or is it a case that the Astros have 4 better defenders and a DH in most games?
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| 9:20 |
: He’s pretty bad
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| 9:20 |
: I’d like to see a Hawk Harrelson/Mike Petriello booth
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| 9:21 |
: David Cone does a nice job in the booth
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| 9:21 |
: A lot of stats even advanced ones are based on innings pitched. But innings pitched is based on a pitcher recording 3 outs regardless of errors, defense, luck. or how many batters actually faced. Seems like not a perfect measure to me.
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| 9:22 |
: A lot of more the recent ones are pitch-level.
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| 9:22 |
: Petriello
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| 9:22 |
: (^^for the booth^^)
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| 9:22 |
: Dennis Eckersley
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| 9:22 |
: Orel is good
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| 9:22 |
: Why are teams in baseball open about their use of analytics, but in the NFL the patriots consistently deny it even though it is obvious and well known?
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| 9:22 |
: That sucks cuz he threw strike three a minute ago.
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| 9:23 |
: Amazing how big of a difference strike zone calls can make.
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| 9:23 |
: They deny it? I didn’t know that.
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| 9:23 |
: Bring back Bill Walton
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| 9:23 |
: Yessss, he was so fun
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| 9:23 |
: john sterling is the best baseball anouncer
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| 9:24 |
: False
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| 9:24 |
: Correa is good
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| 9:24 |
: The dude is an absolute stud when healthy
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| 9:25 |
: Correa is a relatively solid Astros middle infielder
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| 9:25 |
: Also true
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| 9:26 |
: My wife just inexplicably unplugged the hdmi on the TV to watch something on the fire stick. How far did that Correa ball go?
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| 9:26 |
: She just did that WHILE you were watching the game? That just seems rude, lol
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| 9:26 |
: Let’s say game 6’s starters goes deep into the game and are unavailable in game 7. What’s to prevent them from being replaced on the roster due to “injury”?
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| 9:26 |
: Not sure if there’s a rule against it or anything
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| 9:26 |
: “When healthy” is key, Ben
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| 9:26 |
: That’s the key for literally everyone, though
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| 9:27 |
: From a fantasy perspective, I’m always all over guys like Correa who are undervalued because of injury risk.
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| 9:28 |
: Yes paul, she did, marriage ::sigh:: we are now catching up on the good place
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| 9:28 |
: that’s grounds, man — plenty of witnesses here who will testify
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| 9:30 |
: Correa’s 0-2 take has been called a strike all night. Oh wrll. Viva the human element?
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| 9:31 |
: I have been all in on the automated strike zone for as long as I can remember.
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| 9:31 |
: Up and down can be a little funky, but at least get the edges right!
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| 9:32 |
: Anibal had 2 pitches in the zone in the same AB called balls
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| 9:32 |
: Suzuki’s framing has not been great this series. Lots of low strikes weren’t presented well in that Sanchez start.
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| 9:33 |
: I heard that one of the hesitencies about robo umps is that there are a number of curve balls that would cross the back of the strike zone for strikes but are, in fact, unhittable — u heard of this?
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| 9:34 |
: It happened in an AZL game recently. Someone was ejected for arguing about a curveball that was caught at the dirt but called strike three. To me, it’s simple. Just raise up the bottom of the zone a little bit. Hitters could use a little advantage.
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| 9:35 |
: Everyone tries to tell me that the NL is as good as the AL…Then I tell them Howie Kendrick, who got booted from the 2017 version of the AL is batting 5th in the WS for an NL team!!
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| 9:35 |
: I don’t know about you Paul, but to me the hottest team in the NL is in the World Series–not necessarily the best team.
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| 9:36 |
: That’s the playoffs in a nutshell
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| 9:36 |
: The Nats have star talent off the charts, but their depth and bullpen leave something to be desired.
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| 9:37 |
: If we only wanted best teams rewarded, we’d have to go to an English Premier League setup and not have a playoff
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| 9:38 |
: Kendrick’s triple slash this year: .344 .395 .572 — he’s good
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| 9:38 |
: Ben – Star Talent that ends at the 4 spot in the line up!!
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| 9:39 |
: Monster season for Kendrick.
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| 9:39 |
: I can’t recall the name now, but there is a website that has recordings of all kinds of old-timey baseball radio broadcasts — a coupla years ago, someone stumbled on Walter Johnson calling a game in the 30s or 40s.
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| 9:39 |
: That sounds awesome. Let me know if you find it
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| 9:39 |
: Paul, there is a plethora of articles and quotes from Bill Belichick constantly denying it. I guess why let ppl know ur recipe for success if u don’t need to. I just wonder why in baseball they’r so open about it.
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| 9:39 |
: I mean, but everyone knows they use analytics sooooo
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| 9:40 |
: Correa making the ‘stros look like geniuses by picking him over Buxton and then over-slotting McCullers. Helps draw attention away from the Aiken and Appel picks.
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| 9:41 |
: I think their dynastic run takes away from those picks. The fact is you’ll never be perfect in the draft. You can have misses, even catastrophic ones, when you hit as often as they do. Hinging everything on a pick or two is never going to be the way
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| 9:45 |
: i feel as if most of the FanGraphs community is pro-labor (pro-player)…so why would we openly accept the automated strike zone as an inevitability, as we generally seem to?
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| 9:45 |
: What’s the relation?
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| 9:45 |
: umpires jobs would be lost, though of course i recognize other umpires would still be needed
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| 9:45 |
: No they wouldn’t. Still need someone behind the dish. Honestly, it’d ADD jobs. Need someone in the booth doing the read of the automated zone & relaying to HP ump
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| 9:46 |
: When was the last time the away team won the first four World Series games?
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| 9:46 |
: Not sure, but it definitely seems quite rare
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| 9:48 |
: Amazing, the last 3 balls put in play against gerret cole were: 107.7/101.7/105.4 but were all outs. Nice shifts!
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| 9:49 |
: Dang, that’s wild. I wonder if Bill Ripken was at home acknowledging a working shift or still only ranting the times a hit goes against the shift as he has been for a decade
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| 9:49 |
: football does NOT use analytics
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| 9:49 |
: lol… k
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| 9:50 |
: Deep question, should baseball be worried about the low viewership of this World Series?
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| 9:50 |
: Did u guys catch Rendon’s “so we have these bats” comments after last nights game?
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| 9:51 |
: Viewership is generally an overrated measure to health of a sport. They have plenty of work to do, but I don’t think ratings on FOX are all that telling of the game’s health
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| 9:52 |
: The Aiken pick worked out ok.
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| 9:52 |
: And didn’t Aiken not signing turn into Bregman?
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| 9:52 |
: Great point… a pretty good “failure”, I’d say
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| 9:53 |
: Old time broadcast site https://archive.org/details/classicmlbbaseballradio
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| 9:53 |
: Good lookin out!
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| 9:53 |
: This page: https://www.oldtimeradiodownloads.com/sports/baseball-games/indians-at… has a Walters Johnson broadcast and more old games.
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| 9:53 |
: Did those first two games in Houston actually happen? Am i from another timeline? Do we have airships?
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| 9:54 |
: It’s almost like the series wasn’t over after those games! If the Astros end up winning, we should go find all the Twitter tough talkers who said it was over when Washington went up 2-0 lol
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| 9:54 |
: “If you’re wondering the last time the road team won each of the first four games of a Fall Classic, you’d have to go back 23 years, when the Yankees lost Games 1 and 2 to the Braves in the Bronx before storming back to win the last four contests — including Games 3, 4 and 5 in Atlanta — before clinching the title at home in Game 6”
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| 9:54 |
: re: away game wins … it happened in 1996, at least (Buck and Smoltz awkwardly talked about the other night given Smoltz’s role)
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| 9:54 |
: 1986 and 1996 the away team won the first 4 games.
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| 9:54 |
: 1996 Yanks and Braves won the first four road games
|
| 9:55 |
: Aiken worked out, but you can’t credit that to the Astros. They didn’t plan ex ante that the Aiken signing would turn into Bregman. It was entirely fortuitous.
|
| 9:55 |
: I mean you can’t credit them fully in that they KNEW anything, but there’s a pretty strong safety net to not signing when you get the pick slot -1 the following year.
|
| 9:56 |
: 5 innings from Ross and the game still winnable has to be about the best the Nats could have hoped for.
|
| 9:57 |
: All told, not terrible, but 4-0 isn’t easy against Cole. He’s not PEAK Cole, but he’s still strong tonight
|
| 9:57 |
: Thoughts on Rainey here?
|
| 9:58 |
: They aren’t winning this series without getting some strong work from him so this is a good time to test him again… medium leverage before they get to the big guns of their pen
|
| 9:58 |
: Rainey seems like Nuke LaLouche to me. 70 stuff 40 command
|
| 9:59 |
: Yes, though that’s accurate of MANY relievers
|
| 10:00 |
: Given the respective years they had, do you think the Nats’ would have preferred Tanner Roark or Tanney Rainey this season?
|
| 10:01 |
: With their constant need in the pen, probably Rainey. Roark obviously could pitch out of the pen, too, but he wouldn’t be all that special, IMO. Rainey was really strong down the stretch
|
| 10:01 |
: Ross pitched well. Two bombs and one of them followed a scratch hit and the other followed a borderline strike. Slightly different results would yield a 1-0 game.
|
| 10:02 |
: For sure, all in all, he gets big time fistbumps from the boys. They’re still in this game and now the offense knows it’s on them. Couldn’t truly expect MUCH more outta J-Ro
|
| 10:02 |
: “Wake up its the World Series!” is a fun thing to shout
|
| 10:02 |
: LOL, these FOX mics get everything!!
|
| 10:02 |
: Soto always looks a little relieved when he makes a catch, doesn’t he?
|
| 10:02 |
: Reminds me of me playing softball… except I have a better bat……………………………………………………………………
|
| 10:02 |
: So, this is a total hypothetical; let’s say that you could guarantee for game six that Scherzer is healthy. Assuming (and obviously the game isn’t over) that the Nats lose game five, who do you go with, Scherzer or Strasburg?
|
| 10:03 |
: That’s soooo tough. I think I stick with Stras and run Scherzer in game 7.
|
| 10:03 |
: So, it seems like there’s been at least three or four questionable strike calls against the Nats this game?
|
| 10:03 |
: More than that. Quite a few thus far, no?
|
| 10:03 |
: Are we going to ignore another blow call behind the plate?
|
| 10:03 |
: No, but how many times can we keep callin’ em out? Not like we have any power over it. It’s bad.
|
| 10:03 |
: Strasburg 10 times out of 10 lol
|
| 10:03 |
: stras definitely
|
| 10:04 |
: Do umpires hear from the league on calls like that? Never seems to be any consequences.
|
| 10:04 |
: Remember, these umps are the best MLB has to offer…
|
| 10:04 |
: They’re being judged without a doubt. I don’t think they get suspended or anything, but there is SOME accountability. I’m not sure to what degree exactly and I’d certainly say not ENOUGH, but it’s not just fully ignored though it seems that way some times
|
| 10:05 |
: Imagine if we had an automated zone and it was this bad
|
| 10:06 |
: No system is going to be perfect, but we can do a lot better.
|
| 10:06 |
: I dont think its about of a lack of accountability… theres only so much the human eye can see and brain can pick up
|
| 10:07 |
: Yeah, that’s the other element at play here. It’s incredibly more difficult to be an umpire in real life than in looks on TV. These guys are throwing 100 mph. They’re positioned off-center and wearing something over their faces!
|
| 10:09 |
: As baby-sharky as Parra has been, that’s not a great use of a WS roster spot huh?
|
| 10:09 |
: Who’s really being left off that they’d be using? I’m not sure it’s a game changer in any tangible way.
|
| 10:10 |
: Is there any benefit of taking cole out up four runs to save him for future, or do u just ride him out tonight?
|
| 10:10 |
: Would they allow Cole to go 9?
|
| 10:11 |
: I think you just ride it out. Four runs is not insurmountable by any means. I would roll with him as long as he’s cruising.
|
| 10:11 |
: No way he’s going 9 with 80 pitches already. As for taking him out up 4, not sure they have enough confidence in the bullpen to take him out earlier than planned
|
| 10:13 |
: Why can’t he go 3 more innings? Seems like he could throw 120
|
| 10:13 |
: He has 84 now, so 14 per. It’d be 126 to get to the finish at this pace. Not sure he’s going to maintain this pace. I just don’t see any chance he goes 9
|
| 10:13 |
: After all, it is still a dreaded even-numbered lead.
|
| 10:13 |
: LOL
|
| 10:13 |
: Who knew the Rays would play the Astros better than anyone else?
|
| 10:14 |
: That’s not THAT surprising… but also the Nats are in fact not dead. You have to win 4, not 3. The same people who were pretending it was over when Washington went up 2-0 are definitely the ones burying them now
|
| 10:14 |
: Is this the last at bat for Alvarez tonight?
|
| 10:15 |
: It is indeed. Helluva game. He really ironed himself out after a tough start to the playoffs.
|
| 10:15 |
: Even if Cole throws 100-110 pitches tonight, I imagine he’d still be available for an inning or so in a Game 7, right?
|
| 10:15 |
: Yes, if the situation called for it.
|
| 10:16 |
: Does it bother the players at all when members of the front office or managerial staff are interviewing for new jobs even while the team is still in the postseason? Thinking of Joe Espada, for example.
|
| 10:17 |
: That’s an interesting question. Not sure any would answer on the record, but I wonder if someone like Eno has ever asked
|
| 10:18 |
: will the rays’ analytics department take a hit for loosing Chaim Bloom?
|
| 10:18 |
: They never seem to miss a beat when they lose key people
|
| 10:18 |
: Whether it’s in their front office or coaching staff
|
| 10:21 |
: Is the Bloom hire as big a deal as it seems, or is there diminishing returns with a guy like him going to an already established, championship level franchise?
|
| 10:21 |
: At the very least he should be able to help rebuild the farm
|
| 10:23 |
: It probably makes a big (positive) impact over the long haul, but perhaps a negligible one in the short term.
|
| 10:24 |
: The Red Sox were going down a dangerous road; Bloom helps them correct course.
|
| 10:26 |
: Who does Anthony Rendon sign with for 2020?
|
| 10:27 |
: Any guesses, Paul? I heard there were rumblings that he doesn’t necessarily want maximum years, because he’s not sure he wants to keep playing baseball that long.
|
| 10:28 |
: Which makes me think the Dodgers make sense, but not sure how they would configure the infield in that case.
|
| 10:28 |
: The who is tough, I keep hearing Texas which would be really interesting. At least 6-7 years.
|
| 10:29 |
: If he wants to come home to Texas, the Rangers are the spot because Houston isn’t going to make a big play for him
|
| 10:29 |
: Do you mean almost Mets GM Chaim Bloom? Sigh…
|
| 10:29 |
: Mets gonna Mets
|
| 10:30 |
: If the Rays get a new ballpark built do you think that gives them a big payroll boost? It’s scary to think what that team could do with another $40M to play with.
|
| 10:31 |
: It’d probably help if it’s in the right location. They don’t lack fans (they might not be among the tip top teams in overall fans, but they have a legit fanbase), it’s just impossible to commit the time needed to get St. Pete’s a nightly basis to show out at the Trop.. plus it’s the Trop
|
| 10:32 |
: which is why the mets turned him down (foolishly i might add) they wanted to have results in the short term.
|
| 10:32 |
: I heard that. Why do they think he could deliver immediately? Because he wouldn’t make stupid moves for win-now players? I still think he could’ve made moves to maximize their talent this past year.
|
| 10:32 |
: Are the Astros kicking themselves for getting Greinke? It’s probably cost them any shot to get Cole back.
|
| 10:33 |
: Nah, especially if they win the series. It’s not like they didn’t consider these things ahead of time.
|
| 10:36 |
: Is this Cole’s last hitter? I think this is Cole’s last hitter.
|
| 10:37 |
: it’s gotta be Cole’s last hitter.
|
| 10:37 |
: that strike 3 pitch might have been further outside than the ball 4 the previous AB
|
| 10:37 |
: oh, that was a makeup call
|
| 10:37 |
: 3 inches outside
|
| 10:37 |
: Hooooooo I’m rooting Astros. But bring on robo-umps
|
| 10:38 |
: Paul, what’s your take on the AL/NL reliever vote? Should have been Hendricks/Yates,no? Having eight old relievers vote is a dumb idea.
|
| 10:38 |
: Those seem like the top 2 to and I don’t like that voting structure, either.
|
| 10:38 |
: The lead is now odd. Whole new ballgame.
|
| 10:38 |
: I hope there’s a group of people who have no idea why we keep referencing the odd/even lead lol. Good ol’ ARod!
|
| 10:38 |
: People, the Rays have tons of money. They choose not to spend it.
|
| 10:38 |
: That’s also true. No team is truly poor.
|
| 10:39 |
: Astros can afford Cole and Greinke without breaking a sweat. How has this narrative taken hold?
|
| 10:39 |
: No one’s saying they CAN’T afford it, but they aren’t going to pay it.
|
| 10:39 |
: wouldn’t rendon make sense in ATL — wasn’t donaldson on a one year contract?
|
| 10:40 |
: He’d definitely fit there. And yes JD was a one-year.
|
| 10:41 |
: In the interest of fairness, that’s another called strike almost all night. Are postseason umps chosen on merit or seniority?
|
| 10:41 |
: The thing is… they are. These are the best ones……..
|
| 10:43 |
: IBB!
|
| 10:43 |
: Ben Clemens will be all over this!
|
| 10:44 |
: I think it’s the right call. They need to prevent the runner on third from scoring. The guy on first (Brantley) wouldn’t move the needle much.
|
| 10:45 |
: Bregman hits a GS Tuesday confirmed!
|
| 10:48 |
: Curtains
|
| 10:49 |
: But that’s their decision. Getting Greinke didn’t disallow them from re signing Cole.
|
| 10:49 |
: The Nats’ win expectancy fell from 8% to 4% on that hit by Gurriel.
|
| 10:49 |
: Nobody said it did.
|
| 10:49 |
: Crane is on record as saying “if we win the World Series, we’ll see” regarding Cole.
|
| 10:50 |
: that’s gotta be deflating for the Nats — finally scratch out a run, end a threat on a bad stike call — watch the Stros get the run right back
|
| 10:50 |
: So tough to give the run RIIIIGHT back
|
| 10:50 |
: These three games have been historically bad for the Nats.
|
| 10:51 |
: In the sense that they have not led at any point.
|
| 10:52 |
: I forget, is odd or even leads better?
|
| 10:52 |
: Does Hendricks close for somebody next year?
|
| 10:52 |
: Hendriks is arb-eligible still… not sure his raise will be enough for OAK to move on
|
| 10:56 |
: Man…the Nats have scored a total of three runs in these home games.
|
| 10:56 |
: Getting outscored 17-3
|
| 10:57 |
: In Houston the run differential was 17-7 Nats
|
| 10:58 |
: It’s just so crazy to see how disparate it’s been at each venue
|
| 10:58 |
: Folks, the Astros won’t have 3 starters making 32+ each per season. I don’t care if it’s fiscally doable, it won’t happen.
|
| 10:58 |
: Correct
|
| 10:58 |
: It’s almost as if they weren’t the best the NL had to offer…
|
| 10:58 |
: Overall, it’s 24-20 Astros.
|
| 10:58 |
: Please stop tempting the baseball gods…thanks
|
| 10:58 |
: The idea that any other NL team would be doing markedly better seems to tough to prove. The Nats beat Cole & JV on the road. Let’s not pretend they’ve been rolled.
|
| 10:59 |
: Houston can’t unilaterally sign Gerrit Cole. It’s Cole’s decision. Houston can offer the most money and Cole can still decide to sign elsewhere
|
| 10:59 |
: Also a viable point. Everything suggests he’s deadset on going back to Cali
|
| 10:59 |
: Train Noises: even leads (according to A-Rod) are better for the team with the lead because a solo shot doesn’t tie it and a grand slam doesn’t win it.
|
| 10:59 |
: Springer was positioned perfectly there for Turner. Another win for the shift, Paul…
|
| 11:01 |
: But what about 3 run homers?? Every time this comes up, I’m dumbfounded all over again. it’s so ridiculous.
|
| 11:02 |
: Jason: Thus the mockery!
|
| 11:04 |
: When’s the last time a submarine pitcher was used this much in a World Series?
|
| 11:04 |
: Javier Lopez?
|
| 11:05 |
: Quisenberry
|
| 11:05 |
: Dan Quisenberry, 1985?
|
| 11:05 |
: But he was a LOOGY
|
| 11:06 |
: I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but Joe Smith has been very effective this postseason, somewhat unexpectedly.
|
| 11:06 |
: 16 pitches, 15 strikes. That’ll do.
|
| 11:07 |
: Byung-hyun Kim
|
| 11:07 |
: Ah, yes. Good memories.
|
| 11:09 |
: 104 mph, 32 degrees for Correa there. That combination was a home run an awful lot this season…
|
| 11:09 |
: That was better hit than his actual home run
|
| 11:12 |
: This game isn’t over yet, but Nats fans should still have hope with Strasburg going in Game 6.
|
| 11:13 |
: It’s hard to do much better!
|
| 11:13 |
: And offense is easier to come by in Houston.
|
| 11:14 |
: A bit early to be asking this, but who has the inside track on WS MVP for either team? Going by WPA there haven’t really been any standouts.
|
| 11:15 |
: I don’t have the numbers pulled up, but Brantley has seemingly been in the middle of everything for HOU.
|
| 11:15 |
: The umps are MVP
|
| 11:16 |
: And for Washington, I would lean Soto at this point, but Strasburg and/or Scherzer pitching a gem and winning the WS win could change that.
|
| 11:16 |
: There’s a lot of guys on Houston who if they do well in the clincher could get it
|
| 11:16 |
: Good thing that was a two run homer. Keeps it an even lead
|
| 11:16 |
: BUT I THOUGHT SMALL BALL WAS HOW YOU WIN IN THE POSTSEASON
|
| 11:18 |
: welp, i am gonna take my chances and hit the hay — thanks Ben and Paul for chatting!
|
| 11:18 |
: Everyone seems to be pegging the Barves to win the division again, but are the Nats even considered favorites for the Wild Card next year?
|
| 11:19 |
: A lot will depend on what happens with Rendon and Strasburg
|
| 11:21 |
: I picked the Nats to win the division this year. If they lose one of those two, hard to see them being my choice in 2020.
|
| 11:24 |
: Alexa this is so sad, play Despa-Soto
|
| 11:25 |
: Does Houston even need Cole next year? Verlander Greinke McCullers Urquidy Whitley should be pretty good plus there’s depth around
|
| 11:26 |
: It really is sad that the Nats fans didn’t get anything to cheer about all series.
|
| 11:26 |
: Is there any team that doesn’t need the best pitcher in baseball?
|
| 11:29 |
: That’s it. Astros are one win away from another championship. Devastating showing at home by the Nats, but Game 6 is roughly a 55/45 proposition (per ZiPS; favoring HOU), so they’re down but not out!
|
| 11:30 |
: In the end, the even lead was too much for the Nationals to overcome…
|
| 11:30 |
: These three games have been soul crushing.
|
| 11:31 |
: Game 7 (if Scherzer can pitch) would be about 50/50 with Greinke on the mound.
|
| 11:31 |
: Thanks for chatting my dudes
|
| 11:32 |
: Thank you all for chatting with us tonight! We will be back with another chat for Game 6, and Game 7 if necessary.
|
| 11:32 |
: Goodnight everyone, thanks for the chat. Love all of you.
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.