World Series Preview: By the Numbers
The World Series starts tonight, and if you’ve spent any time reading the internet over the last 24 hours, you’ve probably been inundated with preview articles. If you haven’t been, I’m particularly fond of this one from Jonah Keri and Ben Lindbergh at Grantland, mostly because it includes this fantastic image.
The rest of the preview is great too, which isn’t surprising, because Jonah and Ben do fantastic work on a regular basis. That preview is also annoying, as they stole a number of ideas I was going to spotlight in this post, which is why I stole their awesome outfield defense graph and put it in this one. But rather than cry over they-beat-me-to-it milk, we’ll just pivot and tackle the two World Series teams position by position. Forecasts are based on the 2015 Steamer projections found here on the site, and are based on an entire season’s worth of production.
Catcher
Giants: 6.7 WAR (#1 in MLB)
Royals: 4.5 WAR (#4 in MLB)
Salvador Perez is quite good, but he’s not Buster Posey. It’s also worth noting that catcher framing is not included in these projections, and the metrics suggest that Posey was much better at expanding the zone for his pitchers, making the difference likely even larger than this suggests. The Royals don’t have a deficiency behind the plate, but Posey is an advantage for the Giants against almost any other team they play.
Edge: San Francisco
First Base
Giants: 3.8
Royals: 2.7
Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer are probably not quite as different going forward as they have been in the past, given Hosmer’s advantage in youth, but Belt is the better player right now. One additional slight advantage for the Giants: Belt has shown a minimal platoon split throughout his career, so he won’t be as easy to counter in high leverage situations as Hosmer, who hasn’t figured out how to hit good left-handed pitching yet.
Edge: San Francisco
Second Base
Giants: 2.0
Royals: 2.3
High-contact, low-power, moderate speed, and solid defense describes both Joe Panik and Omar Infante, two players cut from the same cloth. Neither is flashy, but both are serviceable regulars who can do enough to justify their spot in the line-up. These are the kinds of useful role players that good teams need to avoid having pits of despair, though Infante fell a little too close to that mark this year. His track record is fairly strong, though, and this isn’t the big advantage for San Francisco that their 2014 numbers would suggest.
Edge: Push
Shortstop
Giants: 2.2
Royals: 2.2
Brandon Crawford and Alcides Escobar are both in the big leagues for their gloves, and they both make plays that convince everyone watching that they’re among the elite defenders at their positions. The numbers don’t love either one as much, with both rating as just above average defenders, but both also hit well enough to be useful even without a lot of love from UZR. You could make a case that the numbers might be underrating both players, but it’s hard to make a case that it’s missing on one and not the other, so even if you adjust both up, the end result is still going to be the same.
Edge: Push
Third Base
Giants: 3.8
Royals: 3.4
This one’s a tougher sell, as Pablo Sandoval career on-base percentage is only 30 points lower than Mike Moustakas‘ career slugging percentage, and Sandoval isn’t exactly known as an on-base machine. As I noted before the ALCS, however, Steamer kind of loves Mike Moustakas, seeing improvements in his core peripherals this year that weren’t reflected in his overall line due to an absurdly low BABIP. By reputation and past performance, this is a big advantage for the Giants, but Steamer thinks this one is a lot closer than many think.
Edge: Push
Left Field
Giants: 0.9
Royals: 4.4
Here’s the biggest mismatch of the whole series, and the gap is actually even larger than the numbers suggest, since Steamer doesn’t know that Travis Ishikawa is a first baseman learning left field on the fly. Give him a strong defensive penalty than the forecast does, and the Giants are basically running replacement level players in left field, while the Royals might have the best left fielder in baseball. This one isn’t close.
Edge: Royals
Center Field
Giants: 2.2
Royals: 3.5
Gregor Blanco is one of the more underrated useful role players in baseball, but he’s not Lorenzo Cain or even Jarrod Dyson, and the Royals pair of speedsters give them an effective All-Star up the middle. Cain put on a show defensively in the ALCS, but it really says something about Dyson’s glove that Cain is the one who moves to right field when they put their defensive unit on the field to protect a lead late in the game. They have enough offense to justify their playing time, and their athleticism is unparalleled.
Edge: Royals
Right Field
Giants: 3.1
Royals: 2.4
Pence was a monster for the Giants this year, in part because he added over a full win in value with his defense and baserunning, but Steamer regresses both of those fairly heavily, pulling Pence down to the level of a good player rather than a star. I’d be okay bumping him up a bit here, as I think Pence is probably better than average at running the bases and playing defense, but the Aoki/Cain combination isn’t useless, so this isn’t a blowout the way the other corner spot is.
Edge: Giants
Designated Hitter
Giants: 1.8
Royals: 1.7
The injury to Michael Morse means that he gets to play the position he should have moved to years ago, as the Giants are one of the few NL teams who carried a natural DH all season. Often, the AL has an advantage over the NL when the DH is in use, but that won’t be the case in the four games in Kansas City. Steamer thinks Butler is better than his regular season struggles, but Morse gives the Giants a legitimate power threat, and evens out the bat-only spot.
Edge: Push
Starting Pitchers
Giants: 8.7
Royals: 10.4
Neither team is here because of their starting rotation, especially the guys after the #1 starter. James Shields and Madison Bumgarner are both high quality arms, but after them, it’s mostly just hang on and hope that the game is still close in the sixth inning. The projections like Yordano Ventura more than any other Giants starter, but sees most of the rest of the veterans as back-end innings eaters. Perhaps one of Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jeremy Guthrie, or Jason Vargas will make a significant difference with some outstanding innings, but it’s tough to make a case that either team will have a big edge due to the expected performance of any of those starters. Ventura is enough to tip the scales towards the Royals, but both of these groups are just around to try and not lose the series rather than win it.
Edge: Royals
Relief Pitchers
Giants: 0.7
Royals: 5.0
Much has been written about the remarkable trio at the end of the Royals bullpen, and Steamer sees this as the best bullpen in baseball, with no one else even challenging for the top spot. Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera are significant weapons for the Royals, and the more often Ned Yost uses them, the higher the chances that Kansas City wins the whole thing.
But this projection almost certainly underestimates the Giants relief corps, since our WAR is based mostly on FIP, and the Giants have assembled a bullpen of guys who have built careers off of beating their FIPs. Santiago Casilla has a career 3.20 ERA and 3.92 FIP, a big enough gap that over 439 innings that he should get some credit for it. Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, Jean Machi, and Jeremy Affeldt have smaller gaps, but each also has a lower lower ERA than FIP, which is one of the reasons why the Giants racked up +4.6 RA9-WAR from their relievers this year, versus just 0.5 FIP-WAR. This is one of the areas where our pitching WAR is most flawed, and the gap isn’t as big as the numbers above suggest.
But the Royals bullpen is better. Blowing everyone away is better than trying to limit hits or strand runners, even if you’re pretty adept at those secondary skills. The Giants bullpen is better than these numbers suggest, but it’s still not Herrera-Davis-Holland.
Edge: Royals
Overall
Mostly, we see a lot of similarities, or at least offsetting advantages. The Giants are a little better on the infield, but the Royals are a little better in the outfield. The Royals pitching is better, but probably not quite to the extent that the forecasts suggest. The Royals have home field advantage, but only if the series goes to the seventh game; because of the 2-3-2 schedule, the Giants actually play more home games if the series only goes five.
Our playoff odds have the Royals as favorites using the Steamer forecasts, but basically call it a coin-toss if you use 2014 statistics as your inputs instead. Neither team is clearly better than the other, though, and both teams have something close to a 50/50 chance of winning the series.
If forced to pick for the fun of getting mocked when the prediction inevitably goes wrong, I’d probably take the Royals to win in six or seven games, but that’s entirely dependent on Ned Yost leaning very heavily on his relievers and not asking too much of his rotation. If we regularly see Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland combining for 12 outs per game, then I think the Royals are slightly more likely to come out on top. But it’s seven games of baseball, so in reality, we have no idea what’s going to happen. And that’s what makes it fun.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The 2-3-2 format is a puzzle. If the team with homefield advantage loses even one game in the early going, then that team effectively loses homefield advantage. A 2-2-1-1-1 format works in other sports to mitigate this, but I don’t know how logistically feasible that would be for baseball.
SILENCE! The last thing this sport needs is more off-days during the postseason!
Though for this postseason only, I think we deserve a best-of-seventy-seven World Series.
#KeepNotGraphs
Best of ’77: Reggie, Reggie, Reggie Reggie Reggie.
Bring on the rain”
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/showers-to-attend-world-series/36077549
Huh? Same thing happens in 22111 if the home team loses one of the first two.
Not really. St. Louis just lost game 1, and thus played more games in San Fran than St. Louis. In a 2-2-1-1-1 format, the Cardinals the clinching game at home – retaining home field advantage.
But then game 6 would have been in San Fran, and the Giants would again have HF advantage….. The same thing happens, in a different sequence. All HF advantage means is that if you win every game played at home, you win the series. Thus, by SF winning one game in St Louis, regardless of the format of the series, gave them HF advantage, unless they were to lose on of their home games.
They don’t effectively lose home field advantage. They *do* lose home field advantage, regardless of whether it’s 2-3-2, 2-2-1-1-1, or 1-3-3. I’m really not sure what the problem is.
In a 2-3-2, let’s say Team A has home field advantage. Team B wins one of the first two games. Now the series moves to Team B’s home, and they have 3 games at home to clinch the series. Team A has lost the home field advantage.
In a 2-2-1-1-1, same scenario as above; Team A with home field advantage, Team B wins one of the first two games. Now Game 5 returns to Team A’s home, so they still get the benefit of a home field advantage.
Of course, the better team is going to win regardless of where the game is played, so it’s probably a moot point. Either way, I just thought it was something to think about.
Oh, and as for the 1-3-3, if Team A were to lose the first game, there’s no advantage to them whatsoever as the next games are at Team B’s field.
That is not correct. Your second scenario just delays the “home field advantage” by one game. The Giants would still get the advantage again in game six, if the Cards won game 5.
if you start with HFA and lose a game at home, you lose HFA for the series. you then need to win at least one game on the road in order to win the series. NO MATTER THE ORDER.
Ah, ok. Now I see what you’re saying. The order of the games doesn’t matter, so long as the home team wins its home games, like they’re supposed to. I understand now.
What’s the relevance here, with neither team evidencing a distinct home field advantage?
Giants: 45-36 Home … 43-38 Road; hardly distinct.
Royals: 42-39 Home … 47-34 Road.
[PA system; ‘This on? (tap tap) Ahem. Having won the toss, the Royals elect for all 7 in San Francisco.’]
I was talking more generally, not about this Series in particular. My point, though, has been thoroughly demolished (as it was a bad point to begin with), so ultimately there’s no relevance to anything here.
Obviously they don’t start this way, but what’s the comparison between the OF if Dyson is in CF and Cain is in RF? Is it mostly the same, with KC having two advantages, or do the Royals make a clean sweep?
Pence is better than any Royals’ outfielder not named Alex Gordon. Unless Gordon changes positions, they would still claim 2/3.
3.5 WAR for Lo-Cain to 3.1 for Pence seems to make the argument of a push, not a Giants edge. It’s just a matter of whether or not Dyson tops Blanco.
That is projecting Cain as a CF though and not a RF. Also will be penalizing Pence and inflating Cain because of age. I can see an argument for a push; but for this series I would think more than 25/30 teams would prefer Pence.
Don’t you also have to factor in that KC mostly starts Aoki in RF, and SF mostly brings in Perez in LF in or ASAP after the stretch?
Only chance of seeing Morse in LF in this WS is if he pinch-hits for Ishikawa in an early high-leverage PA in SF only, or both Branco and Ishikawa leave injured out (and I’m not even sure about either).
If we regularly see Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland combining for 12 outs per game, then I think their arms will fall off by game six. See 2002 Giants.
They’ve had a lot of time off since the ALCS, though. And they played the minimum number of games possible in the ALDS and ALCS as well. They should be pretty rested. Wade Davis was also a starter just one season ago (albeit a terrible one), so I don’t foresee any problems with sending him out for 2 innings once or twice this series. Yost should probably take it easy with Herrera, though, who did have that forearm flareup back in the ALDS, and has generally always had some injury concern due to his small frame and arm motion.
Being rated ‘close enough’ to their opponent that it’s essentially a crapshoot is … terrible news for the Giants.
Their comfort zone in these purloos is position-by-position comparisons where they’re dissed. The Rangers were to walk over their prostrated bodies in 2010, bringing nothing to SF an indelible stain made from humiliation and shame. The 2012 Tigers had Mighty Mig and an invincible starting rotation to sweep aside an even sketchier edition Giants like so much unworthiness. And in each of the comparisons before this year’s 3 playoffs stages, well … the other two were soul destroying, but the one with the Nationals was frightening, the Giants losing at every. single. spot.; the only real issue was whether they’d summons the masochismo to show up.
But even Pops Bochy lacks the chops to deliver the kind of pre-game preroration capable of overcoming a computer app & Dave Cameron tapping their opponents.
Don’t forget to pack the bugle, Giants – and make the drummer plays slowly.
None of this matters.
However, one who relishes going through life with a chip on his shoulder will always find a chip. Barry Bonds, who by the time he started school enjoyed the comforts of wealth and privilege, grew up in Major League clubhouses, and had the greatest natural ability to play baseball of anyone not named Willie Mays, played with a permanent chip on his shoulder. If Bill Fucking Gates thinks he’s an underdog, then he’s an underdog.
Is this actually Cistulli doing a bad caricature of Cistulli?
Moustakas literally hits lefties worse than Pablo.
If “kind of loves” = 104 wRC then you are in no way a push when compared to Pablo.
Giants win in five games, the magic continues.
Instead of combining all the starting pitchers in one comparison, you should be comparing just the probable game 1 starting pitchers, then again for game 2, etc.
Also, I don’t get 2b. Panik had 1.6 WAR over the 2nd half of the season. Infante .5 over the whole season. How is that not an advantage for the Giants?
Because Panik’s .343 BAbip (vs .299 MLB average) is assumed to be unsustainable, projection systems like Steamer are going to assume that he’s not actually as good as his numbers this year indicate. Which I can understand. Giants fans would love to project Panik as the next Bill Mueller and a candidate to win a batting title some day but being objective about it it’s more likely that he has been a little lucky so far and is not really this good. At least not yet anyway.
Giants fans do NOT “project Panik as the next Bill Mueller” — despite the fact that Panik spent a substantial period of time before Game 5 vs the Cards watching a vid of Rivera throwing one of his best cutters to Mueller whereupon the latter parked said cutter in the rightfield stands.
Giants fans actually FEAR Panik might turn out to be NOTHING MORE than the next Bill Mueller.
As to who precisely it is that Giants fans “love to project Panik” as, there’s a list that would approach the number of Giants fans, but for being limited by the number of arguably comparable (in the sense of consistently-higher-than-average BA types) in modern MLB history. Possibly notable comparisons to date range from the utterly delusional (Tony Gwynn), thru the largely unsupportable (Wade Boggs) and the give-your-head-a-shake (Rod Carew), to the conceivably rational (Pete Runnels).
In other words, he better be better than Martin Prado.
Panik’s Babip minor league babip is dragged by a 285 showing in the Eastern where he was struggling with a leg injury all year. He hit .300 every other season (297 at SJ after a slow start) including St. John’s and the other stops on the way, but only managed 258 in the Eastern. Is he a true 300 hitter? Giants get to find out. Its better to be lucky than good, but not really. His bat control is awesome and his contact rate is elite. Straight up ballplayer.
I am still confused as to why we have all these Giants and Royals articles. Teams I would prefer you write about:
– Scranton Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (what a mouthful of syllables!)
– Yakult Swallows (I’ll bet she does. Team name also functions as a stand-alone sentence.)
– Denver Nuggets (needs lots of pining for the good ol’ days of Fat Lever.)
– Venture Bros.
So we’re factoring in Moose’s growth…despite consistent evidence of MLB failure…but not Panik over the soon to be 33 year old Omar Infante? Both of those should absolutely be advantages to the Giants.
I loved your work in season 3.
Too many 40 degree days. Panik has to be dissed for a couple more years until he quietly is among the top 15 at his position. Like some guy named Brandon Crawford.
I know you can’t quantify managerial performance, but there should be a huge bonus for Bochy as he’s out-managed everyone by miles this postseason.