Yandy Díaz Is the Same, Yet Altogether Different

Yandy Diaz
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The book on Yandy Díaz has already been written. An excellent eye at the plate paired with great bat-to-ball skills has allowed him to post fantastic strikeout and walk rates throughout his career; he was one of six qualified batters who walked more than they struck out last year. When he puts the ball in play, he hits it harder than nearly anyone else in baseball, though his extremely high groundball rate has been a problem. In 2022, all those skills coalesced into a career-high 146 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR.

The book on Díaz has yet to be written. His elite plate discipline is still present, but he’s already matched his home run total from last year in just 32 games; he’s on pace to launch more than 40 this year, which would blow away his previous career high of 14 in 2019. On April 18, he hit the longest home run of his career, a 440-foot blast. His outstanding hard-hit rate has increased up to 56.4%, and his barrel rate has increased by nine points, fueling a .281 ISO and a 192 wRC+, all career-bests.

It would be easy to just post a graph of Díaz’s rolling fly ball rate and wrap this article up in under 250 words, but I think there’s something interesting going on under the hood that’s more complex than “elevate and celebrate.” A quick look at his batted ball peripherals confirm all the assumptions about his improved batted ball quality:

Yandy Díaz, Batted Ball Peripherals
Year EV FB+LD EV Barrel% Hard Hit% GB% ISO wRC+
2017-20 91.2 95.2 5.7% 43.6% 55.6% 0.138 114
2021 89.8 92.4 7.0% 40.6% 51.8% 0.131 111
2022 92.2 94.5 4.8% 48.6% 49.8% 0.127 146
2023 95.3 96.5 13.8% 56.4% 44.7% 0.281 192

Díaz is impacting the ball with some incredible authority and finally elevating the ball with regularity. His exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is up to a career high, and he set a new max exit velocity at 114.5 mph. He isn’t just selling out for power to his pull side either; his batted ball distribution is right in line with his career norms, and two of his nine home runs this year have been hit to the opposite field.

Now, here’s that rolling graph of Díaz’s fly ball rate over the last three years:

In mid-April, his fly ball rate spiked all the way to just under 50%, which is higher than it’s ever been before. It’s settled around 37%, which actually isn’t that out of the ordinary for him. In both of the last two seasons, he’s had a significant stretch where he’s been elevating his batted balls at a similar rate.

With such a high fly ball rate compared to his previous norms, it’s no surprise that his average launch angle is up to a career-high of 10.1 degrees. But simply hitting more fly balls is only part of the equation. In the past, when Díaz would elevate, he’d lose some of the authority on his batted balls. And simply looking at his average launch angles misses some of the nuance and context we gain by looking at launch angle tightness.

Yandy Díaz, Launch Angles
Year Launch Angle Launch Angle Tightness Sweet Spot% Hard Hit LA Hard Hit LA Tightness Hard Hit Sweet Spot%
2021 6.6 29.9 28.6% 4.6 18.5 35.50%
2022 7.7 28.7 30.7% 6.1 17.7 39.40%
2023 10.1 27.3 33.0% 7.8 16.7 39.60%

The table above show’s Díaz’s launch angle tightness — the standard deviation of his launch angles — both generally and for his hard-hit batted balls. Sweet spot rate, a Statcast metric, is a related short-hand metric for this concept. Díaz has improved his ability to avoid mis-hits (like balls pounded into the ground or popped up) both generally and on his hard-hit contact. Not only is he lifting the ball more regularly, but those batted balls are also being hit at the optimal launch angles more often, and they’re being hit with authority.

Usually, when a batter’s batted ball profile sees such a dramatic shift, it’s driven by a swing change in an effort to generate more loft. Here’s an example of Díaz’s swing from last year when his groundball rate was a hair under 50%:

And here’s a swing from this year:

Thanks to the fantastic camera angle at Tropicana Field, we’ve got a pretty good look at his swing. To my eye, the mechanics of Díaz’s swing are pretty similar from year to year. His setup remains slightly open, a slight leg kick functions as a timing mechanism, and his swing path looks unchanged. So if it’s not a mechanical change that’s driving his sudden shift in fortunes, then what’s behind it?

In an interview with MLB.com’s Adam Berry, Díaz broke down what’s changed in his approach: “I think it’s more of the count and the situation. Everyone knows I’m pretty disciplined up there, so I’m just going up there trying to find the right pitch to hit.” If you break down his approach into three buckets — when he’s ahead, even, and behind in the count — you get a sense for the adjustments he’s made.

Yandy Díaz, Plate Approach
2023
Count Swing% Contact% Hard Hit% GB%
Ahead 36.1% 85.5% 59.4% 34.4%
Even 32.9% 81.3% 57.6% 48.5%
Behind 53.3% 78.8% 50.0% 50.0%
2022
Count Swing% Contact% Hard Hit% GB%
Ahead 42.3% 86.7% 56.4% 50.4%
Even 37.0% 86.5% 47.6% 48.8%
Behind 48.2% 83.4% 42.7% 51.3%
2021
Count Swing% Contact% Hard Hit% GB%
Ahead 42.2% 83.3% 45.8% 50.4%
Even 37.1% 81.9% 40.0% 51.0%
Behind 53.1% 76.7% 35.2% 55.7%

When he’s ahead in the count, he’s swinging less often to hunt for the pitch he wants, and when he puts it in play, it’s usually in the air. As the pitcher gains the advantage in the at-bat, Díaz slides back to his high-contact approach, with much more contact on the ground in an effort to avoid a strikeout. In the past, he hadn’t been as selective when ahead in the count, leading to plenty of groundball contact no matter what the situation was.

But it’s not just a new situational approach that’s helped Díaz; it’s also the location of the pitches he’s swinging at. There’s an obvious correlation between vertical pitch location and batted ball launch angle: higher pitches are hit in the air more often, lower pitches are hit into the ground more often. Díaz is swinging at elevated pitches more often, leading to more and more fly ball contact.

Yandy Díaz, Vertical Pitch Location
Year Vertical Pitch Location Vertical Swing Location
2017-20 2.28 2.40
2021 2.37 2.38
2022 2.29 2.39
2023 2.35 2.51

Here’s the table above in heatmap form, with 2022 on the left and this year on the right:

Díaz is swinging at pitches up in the zone more often, and they’re getting launched into the air. Five of his nine home runs have come on pitches up in the zone.

Díaz’s sudden power explosion hasn’t been driven by a mechanical change or a new swing path; he’s simply figured how to adjust his approach at the plate to maximize the hard contact he was already generating. He’s now hunting for pitches to punish when the situation calls for it and maintaining his elite plate discipline and ultra-selective approach when he needs to. This new version of Díaz is a nearly perfect hitter who is able to hit for power, avoid strikeouts, and is patient enough to take plenty of walks. That’s a tremendous accomplishment and a huge reason why the Rays’ offense has been so good to start this season.

All stats as of Monday, May 8.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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Jeff in Jerseymember
10 months ago

That extension is looking very, very smart.