Yankees Add to Outfield, Cardinals Deepen Rotation With Bader-Montgomery Deal
As Tuesday’s deadline approached, the Cardinals made one last move to upgrade their rotation, acquiring starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees for outfielder Harrison Bader. In a day with complex trades and financial arrangements, this was a refreshingly direct swap — a simple one-and-one trade to address each team’s short-term weaknesses, with no money or additional prospects changing hands.
The dream for the Cardinals this deadline was to head into the dog days of summer with Juan Soto in the middle of the lineup, but given the packages Washington was seeking for its franchise player, it was too much of an all-in gamble for a team that makes its improvements in careful, measured fashion. The front office had little time to bemoan falling short in the Soto sweepstakes with the deadline approaching and the very real possibility that neither Steven Matz nor Jack Flaherty would return to contribute this season, and though St. Louis closed a deal with the Pirates for José Quintana and his fancy new changeup on Monday, more was needed.
Montgomery suddenly found himself expendable in New York thanks in part to the Frankie Montas trade, and his profile makes him a good fit for the Cardinals. A lefty sinkerballer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them strongly encourage him to keep the ball on the ground even more; they have had the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball this year, playing to his strength as a pitcher.
While Quintana is a free agent at the end of the season, the Cardinals get to retain Montgomery for the 2023 season as well. And with Wainwright the team’s only other unsigned pitcher — though he hasn’t officially announced his retirement and would probably be welcomed back automatically — St. Louis looks to have flexibility in the rotation, even if it falls a bit short of excitement.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6 | 4 | 3.69 | 28 | 28 | 148.7 | 143 | 61 | 18 | 35 | 135 | 112 | 2.7 |
The risk to the pitching may be mitigated by the addition of Montgomery, but in trading with another contender that wanted a player who can win games now, the Cardinals are exposing their outfield situation to new dangers. Bader is a defensive star in center field, and while there’s comfort with Dylan Carlson sliding over, the team likely is now going to rely on a makeshift timeshare between Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez, and Brendan Donovan in right field. That leaves the team with a thin outfield if Tyler O’Neill’s leg continues to be an issue, or his power doesn’t come back, or any other of a number of unpleasant surprises that test the depth. St. Louis is making the calculation that the risk of not having pitchers who can get to the fifth or sixth inning regularly is the more perilous one.
The Yankees are down a starter with Luis Severino being placed, to his clear chagrin, on the 60-day IL, making him ineligible to return until nearly playoff time. But for them, the 2022 season is now about the playoffs, with only a collapse of legendary proportions changing their nearly definite status of AL East champs who hold a first-round bye. They have four starting pitchers already set for the postseason in Montas, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Jameson Taillon, with a healthy Severino making five, leaving Montgomery as the odd man out. He’s a better pitcher than Domingo Germán, but that difference means very little to the Yankees in practical terms.
What does matter to the Yankees is keeping the outfield healthy and intact for that postseason. Aaron Hicks is still a legitimate center fielder, and Aaron Judge is a far better glove out there than he has any right to be, but both have injury histories, and the Yankees would prefer them fresh for October and not playing the more impactful defensive position. Bader’s abilities in center go beyond merely being adequate, and with a year remaining on his contract at a reasonable price, he’ll enter 2023 as the team’s probable starting center fielder. “Dan,” you might say, “with Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew Benintendi, and Matt Carpenter, that’s a lot of players to find playing time for!” That’s kind of the idea; there’s little reason for the veterans to be playing marathon baseball with the result all but sewn up. Famous last words, I know.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .248 | .320 | .430 | 419 | 62 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 57 | 35 | 106 | 15 | 103 | 11 | 2.8 |
One potential problem for the Yankees is that Bader is, as of now, sitting on the injured list thanks to a bout of plantar fasciitis in his right foot that’s sidelined him since late June, and is still wearing a walking boot and will be for another week or so. That pushes a likely return into late August if not early September, but again, what matters most for New York is having him ready for the postseason, not the weeks between then and now.
Both teams get what they wanted out of this trade and give up what they think they can risk. That makes for a poor conduit for my snark, but it also means a solid trade.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Fair trade for both sides. Bader is great for NY because Yankee stadium is actually massive in centerfield. He just needs to get healthy. Also I think the Yankees see it as Jameson Taillon + Bader in CF >>>> Montgomery and Aaron Hicks in CF.
I’m not even sure if it’s “>” let alone “>>” or “>>>>”.
The Yankees margin for injuries in their rotation is absolutely razor thin and that’s concerning. Who’s the next guy up if they lose anyone? Schmidt? Is he stretched out enough to go more than 3-4 innings? Do you even want to try? Deivi Garcia has been awful. That’s it on the 40 man. How are you going to manage Nestor’s innings now?
To be fair, the Yankees pretty much have got one of the Top 2 division seeds already sewn up, and they’ll only need 4 starters in the playoffs.
They just announced that Schmidt will be stretching back out in the minors in case of emergency, but that is still risky. Also Deivi just had a great start and seems to be back on track, for what it’s worth. But with Gil down, it’s Deivi or nobody for starting reinforcements.
So then they lose Schmidt in the pen, where he has become a really valuable multi-inning guy. Yet another reason they are worse off having made this trade.
I wonder if this trade was based on getting Pablo, then marlins backed out. Otherwise it makes less sense.
Seems unlikely, given how late the trade was made?
It gives you a sense of how hard it is to find a really good center fielder that a contender traded a solid starting pitcher–who put up over 3 wins last year, no less–for a CF who is currently injured. I think that this is a very even trade and one that very likely makes both teams better but wow, is it hard to find center fielders now.
The Cards better hope that Dylan Carlson doesn’t get himself hurt. I don’t think Lars Nootbar would look very good out there over the long haul, and Connor Capel can’t really hit (at least not yet). But since that’s sort of the position they are in at the moment anyway, and they only had a couple of guys you could even think about starting in the playoffs with Flaherty’s health in serious doubt…they’re very likely better off now.
That’s why they’ll probably play Yepez in RF most of the time once he returns from the IL. Donovan will also get some RF starts and also split time with Gorman at DH vs. righties (with Pujols still playing vs. lefties) and otherwise be a super-sub, while Gorman splits time in the middle infield with Edman and DeJong (now that the latter is back in the Majors and off to a good start). Dickerson has thankfully improved since returning from the IL, but he’s still behind Yepez and Donovan on the depth chart. That leaves Nootbaar getting optioned back to AAA once Yepez returns.
I think the main concern is that Nootbar is the backup CF. To a lesser extent Yepez’s D. He really should not be in the outfield.
Nootbaar works as a backup. If Carlson winds up with a major injury at some point next year, they’ll just have to trade for someone in that eventuality.
Juan Yepez should not be allowed to own a baseball glove. We need a constitutional amendment to that effect.
Only a cottonheaded manager like Marmol would play Yepez in the field dozens of times when the DH option is available. By the numbers here at Fangraphs, Yepez is literally the very worst defender in the majors this year, at any position, on a per-game basis.
Nootbaar, the rejuvenated Dickerson, Alec Burleson (league-leading .335 and 19 homers in AAA at 23) and maybe even Brendan Donovan should be in front of Yepez in the outfield pecking order — not to mention O’Neill, of course.
Christian Pache is also a good centerfielder. Will you give me a 2-3 WAR pitcher for him? You know who I like as a CF? Aaron Judge. You can keep a few singles.
Given Judges size and injury history it’s fair for them to want to limit his CF innings. Losing him to injury would be a disaster. Pache has never put up a 110+ wRC+.
Are you suggesting that the Bader’s batting value is even comparable to Pache? Wowowowow. Pache hits like a pitcher and Bader is about league average.
Bader is league average at the plate, for his career. But the thing of it is, he’s probably been killed by his home park more than any hitter in the sport. Maybe ever. Busch is generally recognized as tough on righty bats, but Bader’s career splits are nuts.
Home: .210 average and 16 homers in 210 starts
Road: .280 average and 36 homers in 203 starts
Now I don’t know how he’s going to play for the Yankees, or even if he’ll fully recover from the fasciitis. But to this point in his career he’s basically been a 6-7 WAR superstar when not in Busch Stadium. And I’m guessing that’s some meaningful part of Cashman’s reasoning when making the swap.
I’d assume good starters are even harder to find than center fielders. It’s why this move is so perplexing. Bader is hurt and can’t play. The deal is even structured in such a way that if he can’t come back, the Yankees get to pick from a PTBNL list instead. That doesn’t sound like they have confidence that he’ll be back, and if he does come back, there’s no guarantee his speed isn’t affected by his injury.
The Yankees already have Locastro and Florial if they want light hitting CFers. They didn’t need to get another one.
The only theory that makes sense, which I refuse to believe, is that the Yankees were expecting to get Pablo Lopez or somebody for the rotation before trading Montgomery, and it fell through. The rotation wasn’t good enough a few days ago, they get Montas, then trade away from the rotation again.
I get your concerns about Bader’s injury, but he’s not just a light-hitting CF. He’s approximately a league average hitting CF with elite CF defense and great speed. Those guys don’t grow on trees.
Florial has a 31% k rate in AAA. Locastro has a career 85 wRC+, ten points below Bader in a down year.
If that is the case then the Yankees probably shouldn’t have done that deal? In any case, Bader is probably something like the 12th best CFer in MLB and those other guys you mention are gonna get DFA’d at least once in the next couple of years. So this is definitely an upgrade.
So does Hudson or Pallante move to the bullpen? Pallante is having a better season, but he’s more used to a bullpen role and probably has an innings limit this year.
The safe move is to keep Hudson in the rotation and hope he goes back to outperforming his FIP. I wish they’d keep Pallante in to see if he can develop his curveball’s command, but I’d be very surprised if they take the risk.
Wow. This had surprises me and I don’t like it. Monty is steady and reliable and Taillon has been terrible since his hot start April and May. He was awful again tonight. A strong defender in CF is a nice addition but p!antar fasciitis injuries can last a long time and affect an athlete even after he is “healed.” I think the Yanks weakened the team.
Bader at Busch Stadium, career: .634 OPS (1.5 to 2 WAR guy)
Bader everywhere else, career: .820 OPS (6 to 7 WAR player)
That’s why any team should’ve been asking about him at the deadline. He just might thrive in a different home ballpark. It’s a gamble worth taking by Cashman, I think.
Very interesting
Best trade of the deadline if you don’t like the Yankees. A lefty inning eater with a track record projected for sub 4 ERA, 9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 is insanely valuable, including to a current contender (think Berrios before this year and the other hand). I’ll never agree that it’s worth a speed-defense combo with below average power and a famously painful foot injury who hasn’t cleared .300 xWOBA since 2020 and is generously projecting at barely over 100 WRC+ (which requires you to assume health, which I don’t). Love this for STL even though I hate them almost as much as the Yankees.
Bader’s power is average, not below-average, and when you have his elite defense and speed a 100 wRC+ is all you need to have a very good player.
Given his injury, I do agree that the Cardinals got the better end of the deal. It’s just not as lopsided as you think unless Bader’s injury actually lingers into next season.
Or if it lingers into this postseason
The trade is fair I guess, but it seems like the Yankees are creating a bigger issue for themselves than the one they’re solving. It’s nice to get Bader to keep Judge and Hicks out of center, except he won’t even be able to play for a month or maybe more. Then when you get to the playoffs he’s not going to be able to take starts away from anyone else, so he’s just a defensive replacement. If that’s all you’re getting him to do, then why not just call up Florial? Meanwhile there are significant questions about the starters after Montas, and they just gave away the second most reliable pitcher in that group.
This trade may be much more about 2023. Benintendi and Carpenter are set to be free agents this off-season, (and Judge) so there will actually be a role for Bader to fill. Of course, now perhaps they will have to be in the market for a SP instead of an OF.
I think he starts in the playoffs. Or they use him to matchup a bit better with ballpark/pitcher/etc. Montgomery basically wasn’t going to pitch much anyways, so I think this is their way of extracting some value here and getting someone who will be more useful.
But they’ve openly said they’re worried about keeping everybody healthy and fresh. You gotta get to the playoffs to play in the playoffs.
At this point, do the Yankees really have that problem?
His competition to start in the playoffs is Aaron Hicks: I think he will start.
Stanton and Carpenter aren’t real OFs.
Agree wholeheartedly on Carpenter; I’d be shocked if he saw the OF in the postseason. Disagree on Stanton who has been very decent (backed up by UZR).
Stanton is actually a pretty good defender. They turned him into a permanent DH to keep him healthy, not for performance reasons.
I agree with your take on each outfielder’s defensive chops, so certainly they gain a lot defensively by subbing in Bader for Carpenter. But Carpenter is simply hitting too well to take his bat out of the lineup for a single playoff game.
Perhaps Carpenter ends up at DH and one of Donaldson/Gleyber/DJ rides the bench. But even then Bader offers little likely improvement over Hicks or Benintendi. To the point where you still expect him to be used as a defensive replacement in the playoffs, or frequently subbed out for a PH.
This move makes no sense from the Yankees perspective to me. Maybe Bader is an upgrade over Hicks, but was Hicks going to start in the playoffs? If you have Judge-Bader-Benintendi in the outfield then Stanton is at DH, which means no at bats for Carpenter and either Donaldson or Torres on the bench as well. Which either hurts the infield defense or the offense. Meanwhile Taillon has been bad for the last month or more (and was awful last night) and he is your 4th starter for the playoffs.
And if Bader is not starting in the playoffs, why did you give up an above average established major league starter for him?
The only way this makes sense is if they are absolutely certain that Severino will be back healthy and effective for the playoffs and/or they think Stanton’s injury will keep him out long term
Bader is overall a significant upgrade over Carpenter, so it’s not an issue that Bader starts over Carpenter in the playoffs. Even with his resurgence, Carpenter isn’t that much off a better hitter anymore, and the two of them are leagues apart in defensive and baserunning value (even accounting for how defense and baserunning are generally overvalued). Even if Carpenter would be the DH, the same comparison for defense is also true between Bader and Stanton.
True, a lot of these depends on how much you believe in Carpenter’s bat. xwOBA says we should, to some extent. And yes, in playoff games Carpenter would surely be DHing.
It’s not just taking ABs away from Carpenter who probably isn’t a starter for the playoffs anyway. Bader takes time away from Donaldson or Torres. With Stanton locked in at DH (and he’ll play every game in the playoffs if healthy), they have Rizzo/LeMahieu/Donaldson/Torres for 1B/2B/3B
“Bader is overall a significant upgrade over Carpenter, so it’s not an issue that Bader starts over Carpenter in the playoffs. Even with his resurgence, Carpenter isn’t that much off a better hitter anymore”
It is wild to me that someone would state this without bothering to explain why they think so. One would think that it would take at least a few hundred words to explain why the guy with the 93 wRC+ is better than the guy with the 239 wRC+.
It makes a lot of sense if they don’t see GC as a OF but as DH only.
Or if they are a lot more pessimistic about Stanton’s health then they are letting on. And/or if they are not expecting Donaldson’s bat to come back.
I think the big issue here is Bader’s foot. Speed is the central component of his game. Both he and Carlson are capable of catching anything that they get close to in CF. The reason Bader is elite and Carlson is not is because Bader’s speed allows him to get close to a lot more hits than Carlson. (Yes, there’s the jump, the route efficiency, etc, but watching them day in and day out, it’s mainly because Bader can fly, when healthy).
He hasn’t seemed right all year, and plantar fasciitis is something that he was dealing with before he went on the IL, and I can’t imagine that it won’t be at least partially an issue moving forward as well.
Even if you’re right, he should at least be fully healthy next year, shouldn’t he?
As I understand, plantar fasciitis has a reputation for being problematic for some people, long-lasting, more of a chronic thing. Pujols had a lot of issues with it during his decline phase with the Angels (and maybe even during that last season with the Cardinals?), and it also helped to end the career of Allen Craig as well. It’s not a death sentence, but it seems like something to watch with Bader moving forward, since his speed is so vital for him.
You’re right about Pujols (and Bader), but not Allen Craig. Craig had a left ankle sprain, lisfranc. And with the high-torque way Craig rolled his front ankle for leverage when hitting, he could never properly recover.
Pick any Craig hitting highlight at random, and you’ll see what I mean about his front foot/ankle. Many hitters roll that front foot, but very few do so to this extreme. The sole of his shoe was regularly perpendicular to the ground at contact with the ball. Couldn’t do that post-injury. His ankle wouldn’t let him.
As a Yankee fan, I don’t understand this at all. A lot of the points have already been made, but to try to enumerate them all:
1) This undoubtedly weakens the Yankees in the short-term. Bader is on the shelf and now German is the 5th starter. Sure, they have a playoff spot (and one of the top ones at that) wrapped up, but this will surely hurt their quest for the top seed (aka home-field advantage in a 7-game ALCS vs. Houston) which can’t be underestimated. Schmidt is now being stretched out to start, but he’s become a multi-inning weapon out of the pen (which desperately needs it) and now that’s gone.
2) The rotation has major questions. Severino is out (and can’t even return until mid-September now). Taillon has been more awful than decent as of late (5.50 FIP over his past 8 starts). Montas has injury concerns. Cortes has usage issues – they will surely have to skip or severely limit multiple starts of his. German is German. Schmidt as I mentioned above is an unknown as a starter. I would argue that Montgomery is *exactly* the type of guy the rotation needs.
3) Money-wise, the two are near equals this year. Next year, to be fair, the Yankees will save a few million as Montgomery’s salary increases.
4) Bader’s hurt – plantar fasciitis can be nasty, and you’re talking about a guy who derives the majority of his value from his speed. He may not even play this year.
5) If Bader’s healthy, where/when does he play? If the Yankees want their best offense (particularly against a RHP), they have Judge in center, Benintendi in left, Stanton in right, and 3 out of Donaldson/LeMahieu/Carpenter/Torres at 3B/2B/DH. Given that Judge has been very good in CF, is the defensive upgrade in CF (and RF, where Judge would replace Stanton) worth the offensive downgrade from say Carpenter to Bader? Not clear at all to me that it is.
6) This presumably costs Locastro his spot, so the team is worse from a baserunning perspective as well.
7) We haven’t even talked about Hicks who has been surprisingly good offensively as of late, and anecdotally has been getting his arm strength back after surgery. If they want to rest Judge in CF, they have him as well as Locastro. All things considered is Bader even a significant upgrade over Hicks (especially considering Bader’s feet)?
8) If the main reason for this is to rest Judge, that implies they know they’re better with him in CF but that they can’t play him there continuously. Doesn’t it stand to reason that they WILL play him in the postseason in the most important games of the year?
All in all this trade is baffling:
Very disappointing, especially given that up until this point it was an incredible trade deadline from Cashman.
You make some good points, but I do think that once Bader comes back he’s an overall improvement over Hicks and Carpenter. As for Locastro, that’s a non-issue, since Bader himself is also an excellent baserunner and base stealer.
Excellent points. The Yankees strategy should have been to limit uncertainty and the effect of injury especially to pitching particularly because all you mentioned.(Montas health history, Sevy hurt and his also long history, Nestor workload highs etc) Monty was serviceable and a hedge against the real possibility of any future injury or setbacks. Now, however, their hand is in the cookie jar. The upside seems limited and highly uncertain because of Bader’s injury, also no doubt does this hurt them in their quest for HFA. Real head scratching
I think it’s also partially about getting Schmidt a few starts to audition him for next year’s rotation.
That’s what spring training is for. Losing Schmidt hurts the bullpen in a big way, yet another way this trade makes the Yankees worse.
Cardinals could theoretically play Gorman or Edman in RF and DeJong everyday at SS. One could argue Gorman is their everyday RF long term with Arenado and later Walker in the fold and, and Edman being a superb defensive 2B. Yepez as DH is fine and Nootbar as 4th OF is fine
Gorman has never played a professional inning in the outfield, and Edman’s average work in a corner outfield spot completely destroys his value when he is elite at two spots up the middle. Edman’s bat is average at best, so you’re looking at a multiple WAR downgrade for him if he moves to the outfield.
They are letting Nootbaar run with the job right now, and he’ll probably hold down the fort until Walker is ready or until he struggles enough to call up Burleson. Walker, by the way, just started playing the outfield and will reportedly be playing at all three spots in the coming weeks, so he clearly is being seen as a possible long-term OF.