Yankees Defeat Surprising A’s Bullpen in Less Surprising Way

NEW YORK — It was a nice, tight AL Wild Card Game until Fernando Rodney showed up. Through five-and-a-half innings, the Yankees led the A’s 2-0 on the strength of a two-run first-inning homer by Aaron Judge off opener Liam Hendriks and an effectively wild four innings from Luis Severino, backed by a pair of dominant frames from Dellin Betances. The Oakland lineup had managed just two hits to that point while striking out 10 times, yet the A’s were still in the game thanks to the four scoreless innings they got from the two pitchers who followed Hendriks — namely, Lou Trivino (who matched his season high with three innings) and Shawn Kelley. A’s manager Bob Melvin, who had elected to bullpen his way through the game, had another decision to make with Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton due up for the sixth.

He chose poorly. The much traveled 41-year-old Rodney, who had been acquired from the Twins on August 9, had not pitched particularly well for the A’s, turning in a 3.92 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 20.2 innings; in September, he was rocked for an 8.38 ERA while walking 10 in 9.2 innings. Melvin literally had half-a-dozen alternatives upon which to call for what might be the most daunting and important stretch left on the table. Nobody would have raised an eyebrow if he’d tabbed Jeurys Familia, Yusmeiro Petit, or rookie J.B. Wendelken, all of whom fared better than Rodney in September.

Rodney got a called strike on a first-pitch sinker, but his second offering was doubled down the right-field line by Judge. Two pitches later, Hicks doubled to center field, expanding the Yankees’ lead to 3-0. A wild pitch sent Hicks to third base as Stanton stepped in, and Melvin had no choice but to pull him and call upon Blake Treinen to save not the game but the season.

Afterwards, Rodney told ESPN’s Marley Rivera, “Once I saw how Judge hit the ball, I though to myself, this is over,” which, while admirably honest, doesn’t exactly speak to the 16-year veteran’s self-confidence in that key spot — which in turn raises questions about Melvin’s choice.

With regard to Treinen, for as lights out as the 30-year-old closer had been this season (0.78 ERA, 1.82 FIP), his magic deserted him here. Stanton battled him to an eight-pitch walk, then stole second, shortly after which Luke Voit finished off a nine-pitch at-bat by tripling off the top of the right-field wall.

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The 27-year-old Voit, a first baseman who was acquired (stolen?) from the Cardinals on July 29, debuted with the Yankees on August 2. While he was briefly sent to the minors in the middle of that month, he has been the AL’s hottest hitter since the start of August — and the most impactful of any moved at the trade deadline, hitting .333/.405/.689 with 14 homers and a 194 wRC+ in 148 PA.

A Didi Gregorius sacrifice fly scored Voit and ran the lead to 6-0, effectively ending the game. With their 7-2 loss, the A’s were eliminated. For all of the thrills they provided while winning 97 games on the majors’ lowest payroll and for all of the stellar performances that helped them produce an MLB-best 63-29 record after June 15, they couldn’t clear the next hurdle, a problem that has plagued the franchise for decades. This isn’t just the second time they’ve lost the Wild Card Game in four years, it’s the eighth consecutive time they’ve lost a winner-take-all postseason game, a streak that began in the wake of the 1973 World Series. What’s more, it’s the 14th time in 15 tries since 2000 that they’ve lost a game where a victory would send them to the next round.

It’s unfair to call one game a referendum on anything, but the A’s all-bullpen strategy, borne of necessity due to so many starting pitcher injuries, didn’t work the way it was supposed to on Wednesday night. Though the six pitchers used by Oakland held the Yankees to seven hits, five were for extra bases, and all of them, including a towering eight-inning homer by Stanton off Treinen (443 feet with an exit velo that set a postseason record with a 117.4 mph exit velocity), figured in the scoring.

On the other side, Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s decision to go with Severino, overlooking his rough 11-start stretch from early July to early September and his first-inning exit in last year’s AL Wild Card Game, paid off handsomely. The Yankees had chosen Severino not just for the talent that placed him among the AL’s top five in both FIP (2.95) and WAR (5.7) but because of his ability to deal velocity. Oakland’s .187 batting average and .279 slugging percentage against fastballs (of all types) 95 mph and higher both ranked as major-league worsts according to Statcast — by 31 and 41 points, respectively — and no starter in baseball had a higher average fastball velocity than Severino’s 97.9 mph.

The 24-year-old righty came out throwing smoke. He needed just 10 pitches to get through the first inning, nine of them four-seam fastballs. He bookended the inning by striking out leadoff hitter Nick Martini and No. 3 hitter Jed Lowrie on fastballs just south of 99 mph on the outside edge; the former took his for a called strike, the latter tipped it into catcher Gary Sanchez’s glove. Needless to say, his performance roused the Yankee Stadium crowd of 49,620 — and chased away the ghosts of last year, when Severino retired just one of six Twins batters he faced, allowing two home runs and putting the Yankees in a 3-0 hole before they even swung a bat.

“Electric,” said Severino when asked to describe the atmosphere in the first. “I don’t know how to say it in words. When I stepped to the mound, every time I had two strikes — it was so thrilling.”

Severino threw just one slider in the first inning, which kept the A’s hitters off balance. “I think that they were looking with two strikes for the slider,” he said. “So I attacked with the fastball.”

After the first, once Severino did get to his slider, his night grew more labor intensive. He didn’t allow a hit through his first four innings, but four walks and a throwing error by third baseman Miguel Andujar jacked his pitch count up to 81. He needed 27 pitches to complete the second inning, during which he notched three strikeouts on sliders, and 26 to get through the fourth, escaping a bases-loaded jam by striking out Marcus Semien on a 99.6 mph heater, his fastest pitch of the night. In all, he struck out seven of the 19 batters he faced.

The A’s finally collected their first two hits when No. 9 hitter Jonathan Lucroy and Martini stroked back-to-back singles. Blessed with a a bullpen that collectively set records for WAR (9.7) and strikeout rate (30.2%), Boone didn’t hesitate to make a move, calling upon more high-90s heat in the form of Dellin Betances, who needed just 11 pitches to retire the A’s Nos. 2-3-4 hitters, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie and Khris Davis, the last one swinging on a cutter in the dirt.

For as excited as Severino’s first-inning performance and subsequent strikeouts got the crowd, Judge got them even more pumped. Hendriks, the 29-year-old righty who had made eight starts totaling 8.2 innings in September, struggled to find the strike zone from the outset. He walked leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen on five pitches and fell behind 2-1 against Judge, who then rendered a verdict on a 96 mph inside fastball that was harsh and swift: a 116.1 mph exit velocity — tied for his third-hardest of the year and the hardest hit in the postseason to that point — and an estimated distance of 427 feet.

The home run was just Judge’s second since returning from a chip fracture in his right wrist, suffered on July 26. He missed 45 games and batted a meager .220/.333/.341 in 51 PA from September 14 on, and didn’t hit his first homer until September 28 against the Red Sox. “People had questions about the wrist. I wouldn’t have been playing the past couple weeks if it wasn’t good,” he said. “I felt like [my swing was back] the first game I was back. Like I never left.”

While Hendriks retired the next three hitters he faced after Judge’s home run, the initial damage was done, and the A’s couldn’t sustain a rally to get back in. After Betances’ six-up, six-down performance, during which the lead expanded from two runs to six, David Robertson pitched a spotless seventh. Zach Britton served up a two-run homer to Davis in the eighth, but that was the only extra-base hit from among their five hits all night. Aroldis Chapman finished the job with a scoreless ninth. Now the Yankees will move on to face Boston in the Division Series, the first time the two rivals have met in the postseason since 2004 and the first time they’ve ever met in a best-of-five series rather than a best-of-seven.

At several turns, the Yankee Stadium crowd chanted, “We want Boston! We want Boston!” Judge, the worldly veteran of two-plus seasons, claimed not to notice, saying, “I’ve got a job to do. I’m focused on that play.”

Voit, the boyish rookie, was much more exuberant: “They took the division from us, and we want to take it back!” They’ll get their chance starting on Friday in Boston.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

35 Comments
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WARrior
7 years ago

“The Yankees had chosen Severino not just for the talent that placed him among the AL’s top five in both betting on the talent that placed him among the AL’s top five in both FIP (2.95) and WAR (5.7) ”

You need to delete “betting on the talent that placed him among the AL’s top five in both”.

Ryan DCMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  WARrior

Why? He was top-5 in ERA and tied for fifth in FIP.

coreyerb
7 years ago
Reply to  Ryan DC

The sentence was worded awkwardly before (WARrior’s first sentence in quotes), and it’s been edited to read clearly now.

Kevbot034
7 years ago

Luke Boy Voit will always be a hero in NYC regardless of whatever else happens. Makes me wonder what the Cardinals might have missed out on, and yet, they just didn’t have a spot for him. Shreve and Gallegos might be important to their bullpen next season, but idk if that will help the sting for Cardinal fans at all lol

WellIDoubtThat
7 years ago
Reply to  Kevbot034

Even without being a Yankees fan, Voit is easy to root for.

Having said that, nobody has any business showboating a 312 foot fly ball to right field. I get it – huge moment and he knows it’s a very short porch – but it still feels a little silly. If the rightfielder is positioned a few steps closer to the line, that ball may well be caught.

oozyalbies1
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

He still made it to third, so all good by me.

Crushinator
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

#letthekidsplay

montrealMember since 2022
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

We all love Voit but this is true. It worked out, but he should have run harder right off the bat. I’m a huge Yankee fan, but this is true.

oozyalbies1
7 years ago
Reply to  Kevbot034

Anyone else feel like Voit grew up watching Sammy Sosa? That hop he takes out of the batter’s box looks very familiar…

darrow23
7 years ago

Rodney’s comment about it being over when he saw how Judge hit the ball wasn’t about his stuff. It was that he thought the fates were aligned because Judge squibbed the ball foul and it came back fair for a double.

scooter262
7 years ago

As it turns out, the game was effectively over after 2 batters into the Yankees lineup — those 2 early runs held up. So, yes, Melvin could have used an actual pitcher rather than the remains of Fernando Rodney, but in the end, it wouldn’t have made a difference.

stever20Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  scooter262

Oakland did score 2 runs though, so it did make a difference..

Jason BMember since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  stever20

Yeah, but except for that minor quibble that totally negates his entire comment, the analysis is SPOT ON.

scooter262
7 years ago

As a Boston fan, I’m VERY afraid of the upcoming series. I think that with Judge back in the lineup, and the emergence of Voit, and the concerns about Sale and our bullpen, I think the series is pretty much a toss-up. And that’s counting in the fact that we have home field advantage. If the Yankees had home field, I would definitely give us less than 50% chance.

Also, if the A’s had advanced, I wouldn’t mind losing to them 1/2 as much as I will mind if the Yankees win the series.

stever20Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  scooter262

yeah we’ll know about Sale very quickly. Folks saying he’s been sandbagging. Red Sox just being ubler conservative with him. Not throwing it hard at all… Well, it’s finally put up or shut up time with him.

I thought Jeff Sullivan on here in his chat last Friday had a great thought- that you would think he would have aired it out at least once. His max velocity since returning- 97 MPH- and in final start he didn’t throw harder than 95(averaging 90.21). Prior to the injury- he was averaging in starts 97.5 MPH.

Have we ever seen a guy like Sale as such an x factor for the postseason? I sure don’t remember that.

WellIDoubtThat
7 years ago
Reply to  stever20

We haven’t, but we’ve seen that exact guy go from top-3 SP in the game to mediocre at the end of the year on a very consistent basis. He wears down very predictably.

I don’t know whether Boston has been contriving the injury thing just to rest him, but it would certainly make sense if they did.

stever20Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

It totally would make sense. But it would have followed that he would have done better in September than he did, in particular his last 2 starts- 1 of them against the Orioles.

Maybe he’ll go out and dominate. But then again, maybe he’s going to get lit up like a Christmas Tree.

Jon
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

I thought to so too, but they had the division title wrapped up. Did they need the roster spot so bad that they couldn’t leave him in the pen and have him throw a couple innings every few days if wasn’t hurt at all?

WellIDoubtThat
7 years ago
Reply to  scooter262

I assume Sale is healthy. Boston’s bullpen is the real concern. Seems like they will need to outslug the Yankees to win the series.

fuster
7 years ago
Reply to  WellIDoubtThat

absolutely true. Boston’s pitchers can’t match up from the 5th through 8th

stever20Member since 2017
7 years ago

With Rodney’s comments, odds are really good he never throws in MLB ever again I’d say.

Bobby Ayala
7 years ago
Reply to  stever20

It’s a damning admission on his part, no matter if he meant he was personally done or “the fates were aligned.” In that situation I’d rather have a bad player that tries hard than a good player that gives up.

CliffH
7 years ago
Reply to  Bobby Ayala

He didn’t say he gave up

bruno315
7 years ago

“Boone didn’t hesitate to make a move… ”
I would disagree here, Sevy was emptying the tank in the 4th; got two hard hit singles in the 5th; then Betances has to come on with runners on? Granted it worked out, but DB has been known to walk a few guys… Why not have DB start the 5th with a clean slate, instead of playing batter to batter with Sevy?

coreyerb
7 years ago
Reply to  bruno315

Severino definitely looked spent after the 4th, but I wonder how much Boone made his decision on the fact he hadn’t given up a hit yet.

fuster
7 years ago
Reply to  coreyerb

Severino’s job was to go hard, use up all his bullets quickly and hold them down foe two times through the batting order.
Boone planned to have Betances pitch through the heart of the order in their third time through

banjohitter
7 years ago

It would have been fair to Fernando Rodney to point out that Judge’s double was a freak and lucky hit, it looks like you are looking for a scapegoat about why the bullpen game didn’t work. And if there was a manager deserving some blame last night, that would be Boone not Melvin, Severino’s game should have been over after the 4th inning, that was a bad decision.

tb.25
7 years ago

Per Statcast, Judge’s double had an estimated batting average (using launch speed and angle) of .144, while Voit’s triple had one of .168.

mbrunette48
7 years ago
Reply to  tb.25

Thanks for sharing, does it include direction into the calculation or just launch speed and angle? Voit’s ball is most likely caught in any other park other than Yankee stadium.

rankdogMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  mbrunette48

“Voit’s ball is most likely caught in any other park other than Yankee stadium.” Right field in Yankee Stadium is among the smallest areas to cover. Even with this advantage the outfielder was not in position to catch a ball that was still in the field of play. In Safeco, that’s a double or a triple all day long.

Matt1685
7 years ago
Reply to  mbrunette48

He wrote that it’s based on launch speed and angle. There is use for such a thing, but it obviously doesn’t tell the whole story.

Judge’s hit wasn’t anything he was trying to do, but looking at the fact that he caught the ball very late instead of looking at the launch speed and angle, the expected batting average must be higher than .144 because the ball is probably either going to go foul or hit against a shift. However, it’s nothing that the pitcher should be worried about since it’s a very low probability event.

As far as Voit, Yankee Stadium comes into effect as you pointed out. There is only a very small window where the batted ball isn’t either a home run or an out in Yankee Stadium. In any case, the Stadium is something that both Voit and the pitcher can adjust for, and so I’d say that in Yankee Stadium putting the swing on the ball as Voit did should result in an expected batting average higher than .168 and certainly a reasonably high wOBA. In other words, the pitcher should not have allowed Voit to put that swing on the ball and so it was most definitely a mistake despite Statcast’s .168 batting average estimate.

Past a Diving Jeter
7 years ago

Great article Jay. Helpful for those who can’t watch every game!

francis_soyer
7 years ago

“Fans don’t work on the fundamentals anymore – in my day, that ball was caught”

– Jeffrey Maier

OrangeJoos
7 years ago

As an A’s fan the season was a great miracle season of overachieving projections and it was a year some of the players stepped up to become better. But the reality is it is going to be a cinderella story up until we get a stadium and source of revenue, to me that would be the massive achievement we really need to go from being the underdog that cannot go all the way on the basis of not being able to compete against the rich star loaded line ups.

When you are on the poor side you hope the prospects turn into the next Swisher, Ricky Henderson, Jackson, Mulder etc but that is not a known quantity, you need resources to retain top assets and build on them with star quality free agents.

rankdogMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  OrangeJoos

“The A’s 2018 payroll is around $70 million, despite receiving more than $80 million from MLB from national media deals and revenue sharing, plus a $50 million payout for the sale of BamTech, a division of MLB Advanced Media that was sold to Disney.” ~ Forbes

The problem is the ownership’s continued refusal to invest money into payroll. Which exacerbates the issue when poor on the field product and trading away star players drives away the fans. The only reason the A’s are now committed to a Stadium is because they are being phased out of Revenue sharing.