| 7:01 |
 Dan Szymborski: It is a time for baseball.
|
| 7:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello baseball world
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| 7:02 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Quite a matchup we have tonight
|
| 7:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m just glad we got *a* Game 5!
|
| 7:02 |
Guest: So how do we think the Glasnow start will pan out?
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| 7:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Between two and four runs allowed, margin of error six!
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| 7:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Lot of walks, lot of strikeouts, two homers
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| 7:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: So, like Tyler Glasnow
|
| 7:03 |
Derek: Well I personally will be rooting for the -4 run outcome
|
| 7:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Baseball will lock up and we’ll have to reset the 2020 season.
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| 7:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: O/u 4.5 homers tonight Dan?
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| 7:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Under. Baseball likes destroying predictions.
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| 7:04 |
Dan Szymborski: “Oh, you think Cole-Bieber will be a pitcher’s classic? HAHAHAHA!”
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| 7:05 |
Zack: O/U 4.5 innings for Glasnow?
|
| 7:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ll say under too.
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| 7:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh crap, I didn’t change it on the projections!
|
| 7:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Emergency nerderings
|
| 7:06 |
Ed: Glasnow even pitch 100 innings yet? Don’t get why his rep is so high. Think two day rest is a smart decision?
|
| 7:06 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He got there in 2018
|
| 7:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: (barely)
|
| 7:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Two days rest is a big part of what makes me take the “under” on 4.5 innings
|
| 7:07 |
Dave: Predictions for Cole?
|
| 7:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Updated.
|
| 7:08 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll give the boring answer that Cole will probably look a little less sharp than usual and not get pushed real hard if he runs up an early pitch count.
|
| 7:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, two days of rest is a big deal. It’s not like he had some 40 pitch blowout start to bounce back from
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| 7:08 |
Dan Szymborski: He threw like 90 pitches.
|
| 7:08 |
Kyle W: Do you guys really think the plan is for Glasnow to go more than 1 or 2 innings anyways with a relatively healthy pen?
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| 7:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m with Brendan. Cole will be effective, but not at his best, and won’t be pushed very long.
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| 7:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m personally predicting 3 innings if he’s effective.
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| 7:09 |
Derek: Now it says Gerrit Cole vs Gerrit Cole! (which would be interesting)
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| 7:09 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think I’ll take the under on that too, Dan
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| 7:09 |
Dan Szymborski: CRAP WRONG ID
|
| 7:09 |
Thomas: I’m expecting glasnow and snell to be good for one time through the order each, maybe a bit more from snell
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| 7:09 |
Derek: Late-breaking ZiPS projection?
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| 7:09 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Will be interesting to see if Snell can coax a few more swings on balls beneath the zone
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| 7:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I hadn’t updated it in the odds page!
|
| 7:10 |
Jeremy: Would you have Nick Anderson as the first Rays’ pitcher in?
|
| 7:10 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Depends on the situation
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| 7:10 |
Kwah: Looking foHRward to a night of New YoHRk Yankees BHRonx BombeHRs domination with you chaps & birds.
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| 7:10 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t throw that bomb in the second inning if it wasn’t super critical
|
| 7:10 |
Dan Szymborski: We’ve talked about this.
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| 7:11 |
Oliver: Do the numbers on some other aces pitching on 2, and 3, day rest indicate significant fall off? Ex. Schilling, Johnson, young Bumgarner, etc.
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| 7:11 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It doesn’t happen every time, of course, but in the aggregate pitchers are a lot worse on short rest.
|
| 7:11 |
bosoxforlife: Two days rest was routine back when men were men and the guys often went all the way. There were Game 7 complete games by Burdette in ’57, Koufax in ’65 and Lolich in ’68.
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| 7:12 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Hitters were a lot worse back then.
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| 7:12 |
Dan Szymborski: And that kind of workload tended to weed out pitchers fairly quickly.
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| 7:12 |
Brendan Gawlowski: More recently, Josh Beckett threw a shutout on short rest in G6 of the 2003 Series. An underrated crazyballs decision from Jack McKeon, as he could have thrown G7 if Florida had lost.
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| 7:13 |
Derek: Choi making a couple tough plays already
|
| 7:13 |
Dan Szymborski: And three days instead of two for Glasnow
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| 7:14 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Gold Glover Choi Ji-man
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| 7:15 |
Crawdaddy: Did Choi ever play in the KBO?
|
| 7:16 |
Kwah: Despite his body shape, Choi has the flexibility of an Olympic-level JiManast.
|
| 7:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Banned
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| 7:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Sorry Kwah, you were already in hot water with the HR replacement in words thing!
|
| 7:17 |
Steven S: 8 pitch inning for Glasnow. Needs to keep the pitch count down if he wants to get past the 3rd inning.
|
| 7:17 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Increases his odds of getting to the third… I wonder if he’s just there to face nine batters, regardless of how they shake out.
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| 7:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, like a game script thing.
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| 7:18 |
Dan Szymborski: 20 minutes an inning would be the quickest Yankees game since 1976.
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| 7:18 |
Brian CashGod: Did I just hear fans outside the park doing a Yankees roll call?
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| 7:19 |
bosoxforlife: Scripted games are awful. If he is mowing them down let him go until he falters.
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| 7:19 |
Kwah: Cancel me if you dare, but I shall appeal and fight for my right to post terrible wordplay all the way to the Supreme Commissioner of Fangraphs chat.
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| 7:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: how did you get back in
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| 7:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I KNOW the Supreme Commissioner!
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| 7:19 |
Derek: Or, alternatively, take him out before he falters so someone else can come in and also not falter!
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| 7:20 |
Dan Szymborski: David gave us explicit permission to flay non-cooperative people.
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| 7:20 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The problem with “let him go until…” is that unless you constantly have someone warming up, you’ll be too late.
|
| 7:20 |
Meadows Muddles: Are we worried about Meadows going into next season, or is this season just a wash for him due to COVID and his oblique?
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| 7:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I find it hard to panic about pretty much anyone in a weird year like this.
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| 7:22 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Seems like injuries are always going to be a problem for him, though. That’s probably my biggest concern.
|
| 7:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Am I just wasting my breath protesting that Choi has like 12 at-bats against Cole?
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| 7:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, Matt Olson’s like 0-for-20 against Cole and Lucas Duda’s hit Cole. Would you pinch-hit Duda for Cole? Of course you wouldn’t. And if the matchups actually meant anything you would.
|
| 7:25 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Apparently Lucas Duda played for the Royals last year.
|
| 7:25 |
Dan Szymborski: They actually got rid of Brian Goodwin to make room for him.
|
| 7:25 |
Dan Szymborski: Good times.
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| 7:25 |
Dan Szymborski: Even if you’re skeptical of Goodwin coming into 2019, why would a team in KC’s position ever do that?
|
| 7:26 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Double down on Brett Phillips
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| 7:26 |
Dan Szymborski: The invincible aura from the World Series has worn off; KC fans rarely even bother getting twitter-mad at me anymore!
|
| 7:27 |
Derek: Just as everyone suspected, Glasnow on 2 days’ rest > Cole on 3 days’ rest!
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| 7:27 |
Dan Szymborski: And similarly, Choi is hitless against Asher Wojciechowski. Would one ever bench Cole for Woj?
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| 7:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Small sample s–punches self in face
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| 7:28 |
Kwah: By banging a Yankee and being an American who joined the monarchy last year, Lucas Duda inspired both Prince Harry & Meghan Markle equally.
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| 7:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: do you do this in real life too
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| 7:28 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m just as awful in real-life as here.
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| 7:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: When you’re tired, command goes awry before velocity…
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| 7:29 |
Dan Szymborski: My velocity goes away quickly when I’m tired!
|
| 7:30 |
Dan Szymborski: And he survives!
|
| 7:30 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 7:30 |
Brian CashGod: You guys had velocity and command?
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| 7:31 |
Dan Szymborski: My fastball dips under 60!
|
| 7:31 |
Brendan Gawlowski: No that’s a bad AB from Wendle. Can’t be looking for a walk.
|
| 7:31 |
Brian CashGod: Dan wtf is that thing?
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| 7:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Jack Cole Lantern
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| 7:32 |
Ryan: Is there any statistical support for the adage that you have to get to a good pitcher earlier before he can settle in?
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| 7:32 |
Dominik: Can’t take that fastball with bases loaded and two pit
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| 7:32 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Not that I’m aware of.
|
| 7:32 |
Dan Szymborski: You get to a pitcher whenever you can get to them.
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| 7:32 |
Brian CashGod: Kwah and Dan are secretly the same person, I called it first
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| 7:32 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I buy it
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| 7:32 |
Steven S: …pitches for Cole…
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| 7:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, there may be a tactical edge to knocking them out in the first and making a team use their bullpen, but that’s not *quite* what you’re getting at I think
|
| 7:33 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect Cole will run into trouble before that becomes an issue.
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| 7:33 |
Guest: Admittedly a morbid question, but I’m curious: We lost Seaver, Gibson, and Ford within months of each other this year. Have we ever seen three HOF pitchers pass away in such quick succession?
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| 7:33 |
Dan Szymborski: Not sure, honestly, and I’d have to jump away too long to answer it!
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| 7:34 |
Guest: Over/under on innings for Glasnow tonight?
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| 7:34 |
Brian CashGod: hmm that shot of Cole yelling actually looked a lot like the Jack Cole Lantern
|
| 7:34 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I still think it’s one time through the order, but if he’s going to chew through AB’s like this…
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| 7:34 |
bosoxforlife: I must a true baseball fan because I am watching the 2 teams at the very bottom of my list.
|
| 7:35 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Unrelated, but we’ll need to have chats for the Korean World Series
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| 7:35 |
Dan Szymborski: The times!
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| 7:35 |
Steven S: Leaving the bases could haunt the Rays later on. Big
|
| 7:35 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 7:36 |
Guest: Better odds to hit a HR tonight: Stanton or Arozarena?
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| 7:36 |
Dan Szymborski: Still Stanton
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| 7:36 |
Dominik: Get him early Could be a selection bias, you are more likely to get a good pitcher when he has a bad day (maybe slept badly, stiff neck or whatever) and if he has a bad day you aee likely to score early already while if he puts up 3 scoreless that already is a selection that he has a good day and might continue(not always of course)
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| 7:37 |
Kwah: SERIOUS POST: There was a conversation on Effectively Wild podcast several months (decades?) ago about how it’s silly for announcers to say things like “This batter is 4 for 7 with 2 home runs against this pitcher; he owns him!” and I agreed with Ben & Sam’s dismissal of these statements as relative nonsense because small sample size etc., except I do think it is possible, even probable, that a pitcher and/or catcher in the moment actually does know, does remember, that that batter has multiple recent HRs against that pitcher and thus will pitch more carefully even if it statistically is a poor choice. #intangibles
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| 7:37 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible, but I’m not sure that it’s an effect that will make a real difference.
|
| 7:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Most of baseball, in the end, comes down to simple execution.
|
| 7:37 |
Zunino Zunino Suave Suave Cito: pirates fan here and seeing these two pitch against each other, i am sad
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| 7:38 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I buy the idea that there are small advantages to be mined in batter/pitcher matchups, but that there’s too much noise to do it effectively at any kind of scale
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| 7:38 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It is very, very sad
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| 7:39 |
Brian CashGod: Cole now the fastest pitcher to get 100 playoff Ks by inning (79 IP), just barely edging out Kershaw (80 IP)
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| 7:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I mean just for something like *platoon* splits, actual platoon splits don’t became as predictive for a batter vs. generic platoon splits until you’re literally at thousands of PA
|
| 7:39 |
Brian CashGod: Pirates were never going to keep Cole, but that Archer trade, yikes…
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| 7:39 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Just want to give a plug to Bob Gibson’s 92 in 81 innings, which if you adjust for era, is insane
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| 7:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, Glasnow’s not trying to nibble.
|
| 7:40 |
Dominik: Regarding pitcher match ups isn’t it much more reliable to compare results against certain types, I. E hitter hits well against lefties who throws fastballs up?
|
| 7:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup
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| 7:40 |
Dan Szymborski: When you’re talking TYPES, that’s different
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| 7:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Type vs. Type is the true pitcher/batter matchup
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| 7:41 |
Kwah: Pittsburgh aimed for an Archer, but Tampa Bay hit the bullseye.
|
| 7:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Banned from FG? That one shoudl sent you to prison.
|
| 7:41 |
bosoxforlife: But Huntington traded Cole for players who were not highly thought of in the industry.
|
| 7:42 |
Dan: If Glasnow pitches well tonight, could that popularize starting on 2 days rest in the postseason?
|
| 7:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
|
| 7:42 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Joe Musgrove is a decent arm, but there’s a whiff of Ernie Broglio there
|
| 7:42 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Especially if the Rays lose but even if they don’t, they’re trading or signing a bat first, RHH catcher yah? Willson Contreras?
|
| 7:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Musgrove is pretty intriguing, but yeah.
|
| 7:42 |
Nicholas: Can we somehow combine Stanton/Arozarena into a single person named “Giancarlo Arozarena” to obtain not only a prolific power hitter, but also the most musical name in MLB history?
|
| 7:43 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Their next catcher was a second-stringer somewhere in the Eastern League; he’ll accrue 2.8 wins next season.
|
| 7:45 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Glad Marvin wore his cup today
|
| 7:45 |
Guest: All the talk of starting on short rest reminds me of Bauer: do you think any team lets him start every 4 days next year, like he wants to? Also, should the Yankees be in on him given that Tanaka and Paxton are free agents?
|
| 7:46 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t; I’m more curious to see if he makes good on his plan to sign one-year deals in perpetuity
|
| 7:46 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I assume the Yankees would be interested
|
| 7:46 |
Kwah: Gerrit Cole records the rare 3-pitch strikeout that also included a couple of balls.
|
| 7:46 |
Brian CashGod: this actually brings up a question I was asked the other day – do any players on the field not wear a cup? obviously catcher, presumably IF / P, but not sure if the OFs do?
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| 7:47 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The famous example here is Beltre
|
| 7:47 |
Brendan Gawlowski: But Mitch Haniger didn’t either
|
| 7:48 |
Guest: after chapman and britton who do you think is the 3rd most trusted guy out of the yankees pen tonight?
|
| 7:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Green I think.
|
| 7:48 |
Brian CashGod: Beltre didn’t? Oof that can’t have been good
|
| 7:48 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes and he took one in the bad place
|
| 7:48 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Finished the game, but went on a long trip to the DL afterwards
|
| 7:49 |
bosoxforlife: Springer intrigues me. He grew up a Red Sox fan and the Sox need a CF. Hard to believe he is already over 30.
|
| 7:49 |
Derek: The “contused testicle” on the injury report is usually a dead giveaway
|
| 7:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t wear a jock. I needed all the help running as it was.
|
| 7:49 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He was a very late debutante for a big prospect
|
| 7:50 |
Brian CashGod: wow, not only did Beltre stay in, he scored the winning run in the 14th inning
|
| 7:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Testicular fortitude!
|
| 7:50 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Part of Beltre’s lore
|
| 7:50 |
Guest: even though green went multiple innings the last 2 games?
|
| 7:51 |
Brendan Gawlowski: They really miss Betances
|
| 7:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Said most trusted!
|
| 7:51 |
Dan Szymborski: He’d only be in for a short stint
|
| 7:51 |
GraphFans: They miss Kahnle more.
|
| 7:52 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Their bullpen depth was absurd a couple years ago.
|
| 7:52 |
Brian CashGod: Betances had a WHIP over 2 and an ERA of nearly 8 this year…
|
| 7:52 |
Dan Szymborski: They don’t trust Ottavino all that much these days.
|
| 7:52 |
Brendan Gawlowski: They miss the 4-time all star version, not the whatever happened in 2020 edition
|
| 7:52 |
Thomas: its is *wild* to me that the broadcasters seem to think glasnow can go 5+ innings
|
| 7:53 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Little surprised nobody has warmed up until Anderson here.
|
| 7:53 |
Brian CashGod: that’s fair, good Dellin was amazing
|
| 7:54 |
bosoxforlife: Nobody would miss the Betances that stumbled out to the mound this year.
|
| 7:55 |
bosoxforlife: Nick Anderson up in the 3rd inning? Where is Snell?
|
| 7:55 |
Dan Szymborski: If they use Snell, I think it would be a higher leverage situation than 0-0
|
| 7:55 |
Dan Szymborski: in 3rd
|
| 7:55 |
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s what I would’ve thought about Anderson
|
| 7:55 |
Brian CashGod: probably want to save Snell for a clean inning
|
| 7:55 |
Guest: For a pitcher to perform well, what is the optimal fraction of pitches should be in the zone? I’m sure the teams have studied this and it wouldn’t surprise me if it depends upon speed and movement of the pitches. Are there studies you can suggest we should look at?
|
| 7:55 |
GraphFans: Let’s not forget that Glasnow has had “forearm” injuries in the past. Even if he could go 5, the Rays probably shouldn’t let him.
|
| 7:56 |
bosoxforlife: Anderson is the high leverage guy. He has been unhittable.
|
| 7:56 |
Derek: I’m so conditioned to hear boos any time someone throws over to first more than once. I just hallucinate them now
|
| 7:56 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think the answer is the same for everyone. Bartolo Colon could throw a 90 mph fastball in the zone all the time and do just fine. Blake Snell can’t.
|
| 7:56 |
AJ: has Higashioka’s defense really been as incredible as TBS is making it out to be or are we just so used to watching Gary Sanchez back there?
|
| 7:56 |
Brendan Gawlowski: That montage had some damn good blocks
|
| 7:57 |
Dan Szymborski: You can’t pull fat!
|
| 7:57 |
Brian CashGod: I’d argue a tie game in a DS game 5 is inherently high leverage regardless of inning
|
| 7:57 |
Dan Szymborski: BUt it’s really early in the game. The WE swings aren’t as weild.
|
| 7:57 |
Dan Szymborski: wild
|
| 7:57 |
Dan Szymborski: did I spell wild with an “e”
|
| 7:57 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I am not surprised Glasnow faced nine batters. I’ve very surprised that it’s already Nick Anderson time.
|
| 7:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I thought he’d be the break glass in case of guy
|
| 7:59 |
bosoxforlife: Shocked to see Anderson this early. Can he go more than 2?
|
| 7:59 |
Jeremy Tice: I wonder why Anderson instead of Snell? Seems like you’d want your short reliever in a higher leverage spot, if the plan is to use both of them.
|
| 7:59 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He never has in his career before…
|
| 7:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t even know if the plan is to use Snell!
|
| 8:00 |
Derek: it’s a new word meaning weird and wild?
|
| 8:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I’lll go with that.
|
| 8:00 |
Jeremy Tice: you think they’re saving Snell for game 1 of the ALCS?
|
| 8:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they’d like to get up 6-09 and be able to do that
|
| 8:01 |
Dan Szymborski: 6-0 that is
|
| 8:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Odds of Anderson going 2+ just went up a bit.
|
| 8:01 |
bosoxforlife: I would not question Cash. He is a candidate for the best game manager.
|
| 8:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Nobody’s strategic decisions are above reproach. This is America!
|
| 8:02 |
Brendan Gawlowski: (or, it is where I am, at least)
|
| 8:03 |
Hire Joe Morgan?: I have arrived. Can someone summarize the asides and tangents for me?
|
| 8:03 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s a game of baseball.
|
| 8:03 |
Dan Szymborski: As for tangents, I’ve been on pretty good behavior.
|
| 8:03 |
Derek: We briefly talked about testicles
|
| 8:03 |
Jeremy Tice: when’s the last time Anderson went more than 2 innings?
|
| 8:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Never in his big league career
|
| 8:04 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 8:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Our testicular tangents were topical.
|
| 8:04 |
GraphFans: There was a Dellin Betances is no longer good tangent.
|
| 8:04 |
Scot: Could the Yankees ever make the choice that Cash / RFO did here – using a “closer” in the 3rd inning?
|
| 8:04 |
Dan Szymborski: But we were talking about Yankees bullpendability!
|
| 8:04 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think they have the depth to do that right now
|
| 8:05 |
Brian CashGod: Kwah is dropping weapons grade puns all over the chat
|
| 8:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Homeland Security’s coming for him right now.
|
| 8:05 |
Hire Joe Morgan?: It’s the third inning and no one’s gotten Dan off topic yet?
|
| 8:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty well-behaved in multi-person chats! I don’t want to subject my colleagues to too much me.
|
| 8:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even threatened anyone over chili arguments.
|
| 8:06 |
rusty: i want unhinged dan tbh
|
| 8:06 |
Scot: My point is, are the Yankees (and other teams) restricted by “tradition” that the Rays are not?
|
| 8:07 |
Dan Szymborski: In some ways (see logo/uniforms), but it’s probably overrated in most aspects.
|
| 8:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Nothing in-game I don’t think
|
| 8:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The dress code is weird
|
| 8:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Like you’d NEVER see the Yankees replace an 80 grade, classic logo, with something grossly different and inferior.
|
| 8:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Like the Brewers did.
|
| 8:08 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 8:08 |
Dan Szymborski: –>
|
| 8:08 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 8:09 |
5 Run Homer: My conservative 75 year old grandparents even thought the Yankees beard policy was ridiculous
|
| 8:09 |
Derek: yeah “no sideburns below the ears” is weird and dumb
|
| 8:09 |
Guest: the heat death of the universe will happen before the yankees change the pinstripes or the interlocking NY
|
| 8:09 |
5 Run Homer: My lord Gerrit Cole is good
|
| 8:11 |
Dan Szymborski: If I can grow a beard worth actually keeping, I’m keeping it.
|
| 8:11 |
Steve O: Higgy is an elite pitch framer, seriously, he’s rated #1 by BP even though he’s barely caught this year. Can we stop acting like Gary Sanchez is horrific though? This very website ranks him as an average catcher defensively. I feel like if he played for the Marlins or something people would be calling him a bounce back candidate for 2021.
|
| 8:11 |
Fred: If NYY win, do they go Cole in Game 3 and maybe 7? Triple short rest?
|
| 8:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do triple short rest
|
| 8:11 |
rusty: seems like the radar guns are especially hot this postseason?
|
| 8:12 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Sanchez *is* a bounceback candidate for 2021
|
| 8:12 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Can’t speak to that, but after watching the KBO for months, big league games look like they’re being played on 1.25 x speed
|
| 8:13 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Hey look, a homer
|
| 8:13 |
Dan Szymborski: And Judge files THE WRIT OF MANDAMUS ALL OVER THE PLACE
|
| 8:13 |
Parker & Stone: Judge just jacked one in San Diego!
|
| 8:14 |
Guest: Do you like Aaron Judge or Yordan Alvarez to hit more HRs in the rest of his career?
|
| 8:14 |
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s a fun one. I’ll take Alvarez.
|
| 8:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I think you have to take Yordan because of Age
|
| 8:14 |
Dan Szymborski: age
|
| 8:15 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: BTW have these empty postseason games exposed that all broadcasts are always pumping in crowd noise? It sounds the same
|
| 8:15 |
Brendan Gawlowski: hate it
|
| 8:16 |
Steve O: Nick Anderson is really, really good, but that fastball is also really straight
|
| 8:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: “spin efficient”
|
| 8:16 |
5 Run Homer: I was reading that link Brendan posted and NOBODY in MLB had any facial hair from 1917 to 1971? I find that hard to believe
|
| 8:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s wild
|
| 8:16 |
Dan Szymborski: facial hair wasn’t super in during those years anyway
|
| 8:17 |
Dan Szymborski: do you see a lot of pictures of 20-somethings in the 50s with beards and mustaches?
|
| 8:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t, but then again, I haven’t exactly studied the issue
|
| 8:19 |
Brandon: Really looking forward to the NLCS with actual fans in the stadium.
|
| 8:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: What could go wrong!
|
| 8:19 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Who wants Willson Contreras more this offseason: Rays or Blue Jays?
|
| 8:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m just happy we’ve gotten through the MLB season without killing anyone.
|
| 8:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: “Who wants” and “who will pay for” are two separate issues
|
| 8:21 |
bosoxforlife: Is it reasonable to think that there is a size that is simply to large to stay healthy playing a game as demanding as baseball. Judge and Stanton are great but they have a hard time staying on the field.
|
| 8:21 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Randy held up just fine
|
| 8:21 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Have others noticed how unnecessarily laudatory the announcers have been this series? It’s annoying, especially with weird statements about how Meadows has a strong arm (what?), Yandy is a solid defensive third baseman (nope), and that catch Judge made the other day where he took a bad route was one of the best plays you’ll see this postseason.
|
| 8:22 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I may be a little biased, but I actually like Anderson as a broadcaster a lot.
|
| 8:22 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll take excessive praise over bad adjectives any day
|
| 8:22 |
Guest: Do you think Judge’s age makes the Yankees unlikely to offer him a long-term extension? They do, after all, have other young talent to consider extending (like Torres). But they are also the Yankees and hence not exactly resource-constrained.
|
| 8:23 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think it probably shapes the type of extension he’d be offered. More likely to see a low-year, high-incentive structure
|
| 8:23 |
Derek: fans in the stadium is almost certainly a bad idea, but hey! More $$$$$!
|
| 8:23 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Just a hoax, you know
|
| 8:23 |
bosoxforlife: He was a pitcher. No comparison.
|
| 8:23 |
Steve O: Judge and Stanton really aren’t that big tbh. There are tons of 6’5″ players in MLB. is 2 inches *really* that much of a difference?
|
| 8:23 |
C: For stanton it’s only really this year and last, and you could easily make the argument they’re outliers (one bad season, and y’know, 2020)
|
| 8:24 |
Character Piece: Better than being overly negative (Smoltz).
|
| 8:24 |
Brendan Gawlowski: part of that is there are very, very few position players that height to begin with
|
| 8:24 |
5 Run Homer: I know it was the style but… that is a long long time
|
| 8:24 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Nate Freiman was pretty durable, fwiw
|
| 8:25 |
Steve O: As far as I’m concerned Judge is like the new Jeter. They aren’t letting him go. Unless some dumb team wants to go above and beyond like they did with Cano.
|
| 8:25 |
Kwah: Hard to do a fair arbitration $ hearing if the client is also a Judge. Someone in that room must recuse.
|
| 8:25 |
Oddball Herrera: Judge puns? I like “he dismissed that ball with prejudice”
|
| 8:25 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The Mariners bidding against themselves was amusing, but Cano’s been pretty good over the life of that deal
|
| 8:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Yandy sounds like a weird cellphone company targeted at teenagers.
|
| 8:26 |
Derek: Your daily reminder that Gleyber should not be playing shortstop!
|
| 8:26 |
Guest: Does the winner of this game go into the ALCS as the underdog because the winner’s pitching will not be as well-rested as the Astros’ pitching?
|
| 8:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Dan will have a mathier answer for you, but I’d buy that.
|
| 8:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Especially since G1 is Sunday
|
| 8:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, It hought it was monday!
|
| 8:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Better check to see if I’m doing a preview! lol
|
| 8:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Sunday!
|
| 8:28 |
DJ Kitty: Sure it’s neutral, but any evidence characteristics of San Diego ballpark favours New York or Tampa Bay more? (Beyond empty seat vibe more likely favours Tampa.)
|
| 8:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: If this was 2011 Petco, I’d say Tampa. These days, with this ball, who knows.
|
| 8:29 |
Nicholas: The winner of this game can’t be the underdog, because that would make the Astros the favorite. And I think we can all agree that the Astros are no one’s “favorite” team right now.
|
| 8:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m sure everyone’s happy for the plucky underdog
|
| 8:30 |
GraphFans: Speaking of shortstops, odds of Lindor being traded this off-season?
|
| 8:31 |
Kwah: Gleyberror TorrE6, is what you’re saying.
|
| 8:31 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Can’t anticipate a pandemic, but I don’t think Cleveland played their cards right here.
|
| 8:32 |
Derek: Is that 6 foul balls for Wendle so far??
|
| 8:32 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Oh now he swings
|
| 8:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Luckily, my chat and gamer is for Monday!
|
| 8:36 |
Oddball Herrera: Do -950 odds of a trade mean he implodes into a singularity?
|
| 8:36 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Let me get back to you on that
|
| 8:36 |
Brendan Gawlowski: In the mean time… what’s everyone drinking this evening?
|
| 8:38 |
Jesse: I had a flying dog Bloodline left from last weekend, now drinking canned moscow mules that are a touch too sweet
|
| 8:38 |
Guest: i finished dinner hours ago and just had a large bowl of Chocolat Chip Cookie Dough.
|
| 8:38 |
Brendan Gawlowski: But did you drink it?
|
| 8:38 |
GraphFans: Topo Chico. I work in the morning and I don’t get to do it from home.
|
| 8:39 |
Todd: How much longer for Cole?
|
| 8:40 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Looking really good since the first, so I don’t think the leash is as short as I’d have guessed an hour ago.
|
| 8:40 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Him getting through six would be a big deal given the bullpen situation
|
| 8:41 |
bosoxforlife: Urshela is from Colombia. When I checked I was surprised to find that Red Sox hot prospect Jeter Downs is also Colombian. I hope he plays a better SS than Edgar Renteria, another Colombian, did when he was in Boston.
|
| 8:42 |
Lzfreak: Elysian Space Dust
|
| 8:42 |
Brendan Gawlowski: As a Seattleite this may be sacrilege but… I’ve always found most Elysians to be a bit much.
|
| 8:44 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 8:44 |
Derek: I agree re: Elysians. Also they’re sorta fake craft (owned by AB) so I try to stay away from them anyway
|
| 8:44 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: What does a Lindor trade even look like at this point? One year at 27 is big, but everyone’s pretending to be poor for the next CBA
|
| 8:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not going to be super huge and massive.
|
| 8:44 |
Dan Szymborski: it’ll be less than Betts
|
| 8:44 |
Brendan Gawlowski: They should beat what Baltimore got for Machado but probably not by all that much.
|
| 8:47 |
GraphFans: Fairbanks? The ol’ backwards bullpen gambit.
|
| 8:47 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Wonder if this is insurance for Anderson if he gets in deeper trouble or if he’s actually pitching next regardless.
|
| 8:47 |
Jon: Braves have gotten some slack for their pitching development, but Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Wright and depth is not bad
|
| 8:48 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Belatedly coming together, but better late than never.
|
| 8:48 |
bosoxforlife: I know even you experts cannot make a guess about this off-season, but with that said, any guesses?
|
| 8:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Everybody hates each other in November.
|
| 8:48 |
Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll see an even larger normal than usual stars vs. non-stars salary divide in FA
|
| 8:49 |
Brendan Gawlowski: If I didn’t work for a baseball site, I would just check the signings in February because I don’t think it’s going to be much fun to follow.
|
| 8:50 |
Lzfreak: Kyle Wright all of a sudden figuring it out has been interesting to observe
|
| 8:50 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It has. We’re going to need to see him do it for a little longer before buying in completely, but things look a lot better there than they did six weeks ago
|
| 8:51 |
bosoxforlife: What are the odds on full capacity crowds at the start of 2021?
|
| 8:51 |
Dan Szymborski: 10%
|
| 8:51 |
Lzfreak: Dark horse to trade for Lindor?
|
| 8:51 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Cardinals
|
| 8:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Assuming effective vaccine, it won’t be super-distributed by that point.
|
| 8:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I could totally see Cards.
|
| 8:52 |
Brendan Gawlowski: There’s precedent with Heyward (maybe even Goldschmidt) for that type of move and I think it’s time to move Carpenter into more of a bench role
|
| 8:53 |
Steve O: The difficulty with Lindor is why give someone 300M who isn’t elite offensively? A lot of his value is tied up on defense.
|
| 8:54 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He should age really well, and the $/win wouldn’t be scary even if he’s only elite for the first 4-5 years of the deal
|
| 8:54 |
Brendan Gawlowski: You guys have no idea how many bad puns Dan and I have sat on this chat
|
| 8:55 |
bosoxforlife: Steve O. Lindor is a tremendous offensive player! He hit 30+ HR’s three years in a row.
|
| 8:55 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think Steve’s question was fair… He’s a good hitter, but not elite.
|
| 8:55 |
tommytoms: i hate baseball! here for the wordplay.
|
| 8:57 |
Kwah: Sitting on bad puns is censorship.
|
| 8:57 |
Kwah: Aaron Judge is too short to be an effective MLB outfielder.
|
| 8:57 |
Lzfreak: If the Cards were to trade for Lindor, what would become of DeJong?
|
| 8:57 |
Dan Szymborski: They’d figure it out
|
| 8:58 |
Kevinthecomic: That Judge leap due to neutral unfamiliar park…
|
| 8:58 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Good call
|
| 8:58 |
Quarantino Martinez: If it’s yanks/stros, does that vindicate or invalidate the expanded postseason? 2 teams that wouldn’t have qualified advancing feels undeserved, but maybe they are the better teams?
|
| 8:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, DeJong probably moves there for a year
|
| 8:58 |
Dan Szymborski: and Wong’s a free agent after 2021
|
| 8:59 |
Dan Szymborski: so if teh Cards theoretically signed Lindor after a trade, they could have a Lindejong middle infield.
|
| 8:59 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think it vindicates anything really
|
| 8:59 |
5 Run Homer:
OH NO  10 Oct 2020
|
| 8:59 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The playoffs are all entertainment, without really proving much
|
| 8:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I think 16 teams sucks in a normal year no matter who wins
|
| 9:00 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think I’d be okay with any setup if we gave more acknowledgement to the regular season winners
|
| 9:00 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Kind of like in soccer, where you have the Champions League and the domestic cups… But also, winning the league is an accomplishment on par with that
|
| 9:00 |
Bds: Except wong will be gone after this year as cards won’t pick up option
|
| 9:00 |
Dan Szymborski: You don’t think?
|
| 9:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think they do?
|
| 9:01 |
Dan Szymborski: 1/12.5 strikes me as a no brainer
|
| 9:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He’s become a big part of their success
|
| 9:01 |
Jeremy Tice: is that overhang thing… common…?
|
| 9:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, he wasn’t amazing by any means in 2020
|
| 9:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: No it’s weird
|
| 9:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Austin Meadows sounds like a Texas minimansion gated community
|
| 9:02 |
Brendan Gawlowski: As for Wong.. Four-win pace this year, four-win player the year before… 92 wRC+ was actually good in that lineup… They need him.
|
| 9:02 |
Lzfreak: Obviously saves aren’t a particularly useful stat but 13 different guys on one team getting one is pretty crazy this year
|
| 9:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Couldn’t imagine it ten years ago
|
| 9:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I wonder what the most different guys on a team getting one is
|
| 9:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Hold on, that I can check without leaving for an hour
|
| 9:03 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I feel like NY HOU makes the league happy but Fangraphs unhappy. Yankees did not choose to get better at the deadline because of the expanded playoffs, and that is bad for the game. Meanwhile the Astros got in with a losing record, which is a message unto itself.
|
| 9:03 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Makes everyone outside of Houston and New York unhappy more like
|
| 9:04 |
Kwah: “Austin Meadows” : A neighborhood where it’s safe to park your Whitey Fords and raise your Gerrit Coles.
|
| 9:04 |
GraphFans: Do saves still matter for relief pitchers going through arbitration?
|
| 9:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 9:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Teams are going to argue it even if their analytics people know they sucks
|
| 9:05 |
Dan Szymborski: and if it advantages the player, the agent will argue it
|
| 9:05 |
Steve O: honestly don’t even think the yankees make a trade at the deadline even if there were only 5 playoff teams. unless you count going the extra mile for Taijuan Walker?
|
| 9:06 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m a little surprised they didn’t get another reliever.
|
| 9:07 |
bosoxforlife: Fairbanks for Solak, another Rays steal?
|
| 9:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I want to give Solak the same mulligan we’re giving everyone else for 2016, but that was a pretty lousy 50 games for him.
|
| 9:07 |
GraphFans: If they knew there wouldn’t be any travel days, they might have gone after Archie Bradley or Robbie Ray.
|
| 9:07 |
Steve O: Yeah, me too. But Clevinger/Lynn wasn’t happening with the asking price being two of Schmidt, Deivi, and Frazier
|
| 9:07 |
tommytoms: how come they only put cut outs in certain areas and not others?
|
| 9:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Cardboard fans like particular seats!
|
| 9:08 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: What’s the track for a HOF kind of player in say…10 years? NCAA, drafted at 21, debut at 22, play for 15 seasons or so? What are Cole’s chances? That’s literally his track
|
| 9:09 |
Brendan Gawlowski: We’re going to need a significant adjustment in how the electorate treats starting pitchers. My personal Hall would have more Koufax/Kiner types and fewer Brocks/Wynns, and I think you’ll have to do that to some extent if you’re ever going to elect pitchers.
|
| 9:10 |
Dan Szymborski: Who’s the 13th Ray? I only count 12 Rays having saves this year.
|
| 9:12 |
tommytoms: i enjoy how they’ve left the netting up to protect their cardboard investment
|
| 9:12 |
cg: Why does everyone hate the postseason so much? Because the rest of the world assigns too much value to it? Everyone who knows anything about baseball knows that it doesn’t determine who the best team is. It is the Dodgers, as it was last year, and as it will be next year. But what is the fun in that?
|
| 9:13 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 9:13 |
Bds: 13 included fairbanks in playoffs
|
| 9:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh, that’s kinda cheating.
|
| 9:13 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I certainly don’t hate it. I do think the LA’s greatness deserves more recognition than it gets.
|
| 9:13 |
Lzfreak: Is there a more overused cliche than “put on a show” in the context of a homerun derby?
|
| 9:13 |
Dan Szymborski: A derby’s not a show anyway!
|
| 9:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t someone in a derby put on a race?
|
| 9:14 |
Derek: But “derby” in English soccer just means rivalry (maybe regional rivalry?)
|
| 9:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Then they should PUT ON A FIGHT!
|
| 9:14 |
Brian CashGod: it’s a race to hit the most homers in the allotted time?
|
| 9:14 |
tommytoms: a derby is a type of hat. i’m confused.
|
| 9:14 |
CJ: Is anyone warming up? Boone cannot let Cole face Choi for the 3rd time, can he?
|
| 9:14 |
Dan Szymborski: IT’S A HAT YOU HAVE RIVALRIES IN
|
| 9:14 |
Brian CashGod: well now I want to see the HOME RUN MELEE
|
| 9:14 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’d be more scared of Lowe than Choi
|
| 9:15 |
cg: To me I guess. There is a lot of negative on twitter with Dodgers fans and what not. Choke artists or w.e from casual baseball fans. They are still the best team. I sort of enjoy this weirdness, at least as a one-off. It will be coming back in the future, probably though.
|
| 9:15 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s negative everything on Twitter.
|
| 9:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Twitter is The Bad Place
|
| 9:16 |
Dan Szymborski: If something exists, you’ll find a massive clique on Twitter that hates it with a burning passion.
|
| 9:16 |
Kevinthecomic: What does everyone do with the 5%of pistachios that don’t come pre-cracked? I draw faces on them, give them names, and keep them in a sandwich bag on my desk.
|
| 9:16 |
Dan Szymborski: I use a nutcracker. You can’t let the pistachio win.
|
| 9:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Pics or I call BS
|
| 9:16 |
Lzfreak: Maybe I’m just a Twins fan but the quality of play in the “wild card round” was poor
|
| 9:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The Twins did play quite poorly.
|
| 9:17 |
tommytoms: can you even post pictures here?
|
| 9:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah
|
| 9:17 |
Dan Szymborski: You have to have a link
|
| 9:17 |
Dan Szymborski: But Brendan and I are the cruel arbiters!
|
| 9:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Only the worthiest images get through my process.
|
| 9:18 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 9:19 |
Brian CashGod: damn Brendan that was savage
|
| 9:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I like the Astros bragging about a two-game sweep of the Twins.
|
| 9:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Guys, literally everyone sweeps the Twins!
|
| 9:19 |
Brian CashGod: oof you’d like some of those insane 50s jello recipes then
|
| 9:20 |
Dan Szymborski: GardNOHR, amirite Kwah?
|
| 9:20 |
Brendan Gawlowski: How far does that fly ten days ago?
|
| 9:21 |
Brian CashGod: fun fact Jello used to make a celery flavor…
|
| 9:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I think it was my grandmother who loved Dr. Brown’s Cel-Ray soda
|
| 9:21 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: We demand more overhead lips on the walls,
|
| 9:22 |
mrmr: Doesn’t that ball go like 50 feet farther earlier this week? how can they do that just changing the balls
|
| 9:22 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Still looks pretty juicy tonight
|
| 9:22 |
Dan Szymborski: My mom said my grandmother subsisted through most of the 60s on celery soda and valium.
|
| 9:23 |
Bds: If Astros make world series is it wrong to hope it is cancelled by covid outbreak?
|
| 9:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, because real people can be hurt by that!
|
| 9:23 |
Dan Szymborski: The proper karmic retribution for Astros is shameful embarrassing losing.
|
| 9:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Like losing a 16-0 lead in game 7 of the WS
|
| 9:23 |
Brian CashGod: I thought Manfred gave the Astros immunity?
|
| 9:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I said *karmic* retribution! Manfred has no jurisdiction!
|
| 9:24 |
Eel Ffilc: That feels like some 1950s cigarette ad peddling that hard seltzer can tought antioxidant vitamin c
|
| 9:25 |
Dan Szymborski: The 70s were a dark time.
|
| 9:25 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 9:25 |
Kwah: Zack Bottomofthesixthton.
|
| 9:25 |
Lzfreak: The proper karmic retribution was them being under .500 but they’re still around for some reason
|
| 9:26 |
Brian CashGod: karmic retribution vs. 2020 – Astros below .500, still in the ALCS
|
| 9:26 |
Derek: I am very glad I wasn’t alive in the ’70s
|
| 9:26 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s fitting I was made in the 70s.
|
| 9:26 |
CJ: Which team is more likely to DESTROY ‘stros?
|
| 9:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Yankees I think
|
| 9:26 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Neither if everybody’s going to push their best pitchers to the brink two days before the series starts
|
| 9:27 |
lithium: don’t fly ball hitters hit better vs ground ball pitchers or something regarding bat path
|
| 9:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Elias found that in the 80s!
|
| 9:27 |
kevinthecomic: 
|
| 9:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Kevin’s mouth wrote a check his ass COULD cash!
|
| 9:27 |
Brian CashGod: oh shit he was telling the truth
|
| 9:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Hmmm. Given the time lapse, I think he just did that in the last 10-15 minutes.
|
| 9:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you’d have to go find pistachios
|
| 9:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Full credit to Kevin
|
| 9:28 |
Dan Szymborski: Brian CashGod, I think justice now demands that you have to eat 11 pistachio shells.
|
| 9:28 |
Quarantino Martinez: O’s fan here. I thought Britton wasn’t allowed to pitch in winner take all playoff games.
|
| 9:28 |
CJ: @Brendan That’s what I’m worried about.
|
| 9:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s trite to say “It’s 2020”
|
| 9:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: But it’s 2020; the Astros are winning the whole thing
|
| 9:29 |
Bds: Of course might serve Manfred right to have to award the astros the trophy on Fox.
|
| 9:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: That almost makes it worth it
|
| 9:29 |
CJ: PLEASE don’t say that
|
| 9:30 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Look, Lance McCullers said that nobody thought they could do it, so you should appreciate this for the underdog story it is.
|
| 9:31 |
Lzfreak: Lots of bat flips this inning considering no homeruns
|
| 9:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Gotta make up for the bat flips that never came to be.
|
| 9:31 |
Eel Ffilc: Britton’s sinker is one of the most captivating pitches
|
| 9:31 |
V2micca: Any chance the Dodgers could already be looking beyond the NLCS, or are they still pretty focused?
|
| 9:31 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Of all teams to not take anything for granted…
|
| 9:32 |
Dan Szymborski: My rendition of Buck’s reliever usage that game.
|
| 9:32 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 9:32 |
bosoxforlife: I didn’t know Britton had that. Wendle was toast even before he took that awful hack.
|
| 9:33 |
tommytoms: i would watch a bat flip derby
|
| 9:33 |
Quarantino Martinez: Is Gas Masterson your post-chili nickname?
|
| 9:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have beans!
|
| 9:33 |
Eel Ffilc: Like dude that 95 mph one to Wendle, love it
|
| 9:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Case REMANDED
|
| 9:34 |
V2micca: I hope bat flips become more common. I hope pitcher struts become more common. I want to see a middle infielder moonwalk to the dugout after making a diving play to save a run and end the inning.
|
| 9:35 |
Bds: For a game with very little offense, this game is taking a long time.
|
| 9:35 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Welcome to the playoffs!
|
| 9:35 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Extra ads
|
| 9:35 |
Lzfreak: Dan do you have a list of the teams with the fewest players to record a save in a season?
|
| 9:35 |
Dan Szymborski: Like a billion tied with 0
|
| 9:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t save the whole list
|
| 9:36 |
aaron boone: How much am I missing Tommy Kahnle right now
|
| 9:36 |
Jon: How concerned are you with Lindor’s declining offense?
|
| 9:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d be more concerned in a normal year.
|
| 9:37 |
Bds: Last night only 3.14, tonight will likely hit 4 hours
|
| 9:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, the most recent team with 0 saves was the 1918 Braves
|
| 9:38 |
Dan Szymborski: Not counting the shortened years, the ’62 Mets were the last team with ten or fewer saves.
|
| 9:38 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Hot take: The Rays are bad for baseball but know they’re bad for baseball, will become buyers to get a new stadium
|
| 9:38 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Scorching
|
| 9:39 |
Brendan Gawlowski: why would they have to spend to get a stadium?
|
| 9:39 |
GraphFans: I thought saves weren’t an official stat until the 70’s. Did they retroactively award pitchers saves?
|
| 9:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 9:39 |
Dan Szymborski: We retroactively award WAR!
|
| 9:40 |
bosoxforlife: Love some of the old-time pitchers. Firpo Marbury led the league in saves one year and just happened to start 15 times in addition.
|
| 9:40 |
Kwah: I’m more of a peace person myself, but go off.
|
| 9:40 |
Dan Szymborski: PEACE+
|
| 9:40 |
Brendan Gawlowski: And was named Firbo Marbury
|
| 9:40 |
bosoxforlife: Tell me how they retroactively determine defensive WAR from the 20’s and 30’s.
|
| 9:40 |
Cards: What would you give up as the cards for a year of Lindor?
|
| 9:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Roughly.
|
| 9:40 |
Lzfreak: Then why doesn’t the NFL retroactively award sacks?
|
| 9:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Because people taped over all the games.
|
| 9:41 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Anyone on Eric’s list besides Carlson
|
| 9:41 |
v2micca: So, who had Ray Yankees as the most compelling Division series?
|
| 9:41 |
Dan Szymborski: You can reward saves without having game footage
|
| 9:42 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I think, if you’d had to pick, that one looked pretty compelling
|
| 9:42 |
Dan Szymborski: But to reward a sack without having game footage, you have to actually record the sacks!
|
| 9:42 |
Elvis: Is Andrus a good comparison for Lindor? As an opposing team that would be my concern
|
| 9:42 |
Dan Szymborski: No, Lindor’s much better
|
| 9:42 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Re: spending to get a stadium…Buying won’t be expensive this offseason, any trade would be from depth and redundancy
|
| 9:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Andrus has like a single four WAR season
|
| 9:42 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Who *is* a comparable for Lindor? Beltran but SS?
|
| 9:43 |
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s not the kind of thing that moves the needle on a billion dollar construction project
|
| 9:43 |
Brendan Gawlowski: As for Lindor: Elite players defy easy comparison
|
| 9:43 |
Dan Szymborski: Ripken
|
| 9:44 |
Dan Szymborski: And weirdly and frightening, Fregosi
|
| 9:44 |
GraphFans: Does Bogaerts or Lindor end up with the better career stats?
|
| 9:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Lindor
|
| 9:44 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Lindor
|
| 9:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I like Xander, but yeah
|
| 9:45 |
kevinthecomic: anyone else notice that JBJ went on one of his offensive outbursts to end the season? is there a ‘type’ of player more likely to be streaky than another?
|
| 9:45 |
Brendan Gawlowski: You know, that’s your best effort tonight
|
| 9:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really.
|
| 9:45 |
Lzfreak: Rays have to feel good about only using 3 pitchers through 7
|
| 9:45 |
Derek: All in all I think this pitching situation has worked out close to ideally for the Rays (obviously they would have preferred to not give up a HR, but…). It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the last two innings!
|
| 9:45 |
Lzfreak: What are the odds Mookie Betts gets to the Hall?
|
| 9:45 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Pretty damn good.
|
| 9:46 |
Dan Szymborski:
Your Rays bullpen name is the first name of your eldest cousin and the northernmost city you’ve visited. I’m Dennis Bismarck.
10 Oct 2020
|
| 9:46 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Mike Whistler
|
| 9:47 |
Steve O: Lindor comp – Did Gregorius of the last ~4 years with better defense? That’s all I got. Didi Gregorius was very good these last four years excluding his TJS return couple months in 2019
|
| 9:48 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Poor man’s Lindor
|
| 9:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Mike Vancouver
|
| 9:48 |
Bds: Do you think there are some players on each team who are thinking, eh if we lose at least we are out of the bubble?
|
| 9:48 |
Kyle W: Jason Green Bay, not great
|
| 9:48 |
Eel Ffilc: Damn Dan. I’m guessing that’s a partially ZiPS induced comparison but as an Indians’ fan that hit me hard. Lindor is special
|
| 9:48 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Almost certainly a couple
|
| 9:48 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have ZiPS open, but Fregosi was *really* good early.
|
| 9:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Fregosi WAR
|
| 9:50 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 9:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Then he had a giant tumor around the nerves in his foot
|
| 9:50 |
GraphFans: Sandy Amsterdam
|
| 9:51 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: Which pitcher signs the longest deal this offseason? I’m thinking there’s a shortlist for who even might get 3 years? Stroman? Descalfini? Britton?
|
| 9:51 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Stroman?
|
| 9:51 |
Bds: Wow Fregosi would have made 20 million a year now
|
| 9:51 |
Dan Szymborski: He’d have gotten to FA before the injuries
|
| 9:52 |
Nicholas: Has Chapman ever had a 7-out save? Or appearance, for that matter?
|
| 9:52 |
Dan Szymborski: 7 out appearance
|
| 9:53 |
Brendan Gawlowski: And in the WS that year too
|
| 9:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup
|
| 9:53 |
Dan Szymborski: His only 7 out save
|
| 9:54 |
Derek: Sandy Amsterdam sounds like a solid lefty sidearmer
|
| 9:54 |
v2micca: If Bauer want three years, he’s one of the few pitchers I think could command it this FA season.
|
| 9:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I think in the end he doesn’t make good on his year-to-year threat
|
| 9:55 |
Lzfreak: If every single free agent only signed one year contracts every year, would payrolls be higher overall?
|
| 9:56 |
Dan Szymborski: *Could* be
|
| 9:56 |
Dan Szymborski: But riskier for individual players
|
| 9:57 |
Dan Szymborski: This hasn’t been a particularly quick game but it *feels* quick
|
| 9:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Stuff always seems to be happenign
|
| 9:57 |
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not like the teams would raise their budgets all that much
|
| 9:58 |
Kwah: Brandownon-A Lowestrike.
|
| 9:58 |
Derek: Yeah this isn’t been one of those interminable Red Sox-Yankees style games
|
| 10:00 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Between chatting, watching, researching to answer some of your questions, and trying to carry a conversation with my wife, it feels it’s only been going for five minutes
|
| 10:00 |
Todd: Pinch hit for Higgy here with Frazier?
|
| 10:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Was thinking the same
|
| 10:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe he’ll face Snell instead later tonight
|
| 10:01 |
Bds: Seems like a bad idea to use Ford when it means Chapman has to now pitch with Passed ball Sanchez
|
| 10:01 |
Brendan Gawlowski: As we definitively proved earlier in the chat, the worst catcher in modern times
|
| 10:02 |
GraphFans: With Higgy out, the Rays are going to score the go-ahead run on a Sanchez passed ball.
|
| 10:02 |
Derek: Mike Ford is a big dude
|
| 10:02 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Inevitably
|
| 10:02 |
Eel Ffilc: The way these two teams are built feels like they will usually have entertaining matchups
|
| 10:04 |
bosoxforlife: Can you set up a poll on how many pitches Sanchez fails to catch?
|
| 10:04 |
Dan Szymborski: A little late to start a poll!
|
| 10:05 |
Derek: It’s never too late for a poll!
|
| 10:05 |
bosoxforlife: Comparison between Tejada (47.1bWAR) and Fregosi (48.7bWAR). Ernie Banks was the standard and, along with Tejada, are the only other SS I could find with 3 straight 30+ HR seasons.
|
| 10:06 |
Eel Ffilc: Has there been a study into how often a hitter actually gets a ball call on a 3-2 count by hard selling before the ump calls it? I have to imagine it’s around 2%
|
| 10:06 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Haven’t seen that one, but I think batter reactions on inside pitches do have an effect
|
| 10:06 |
Lzfreak: At this point why not just use the great bullpen arms? Is Snell that much better? If you win he’d be a great game 1 starter
|
| 10:06 |
Brendan Gawlowski: A great starter > great reliever in short stints
|
| 10:07 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Like, if you had Snell and Anderson only pitch one inning at a time, my money’s on Snell posting better numbers in the long run
|
| 10:08 |
Guest: Who would you say are the best 3 relievers in baseball right now?
|
| 10:08 |
Derek: Plus the Rays have churned through all of their tippy-top tier bullpen arms at this point
|
| 10:08 |
Bds: Has the feel of a game that will go 15 innings
|
| 10:08 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Hendriks, Karinchak, Diaz. Ask tomorrow, I may say Chapman, Williams, and Anderson
|
| 10:08 |
Dan Szymborski: it could.
|
| 10:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I like the Rays bullpen depth better.
|
| 10:09 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Pitching to judge 3-0…gutsy.
|
| 10:09 |
bosoxforlife: The semi-intentional pass. I know I wouldn’t throw it within 20 feet of the zone with Judge up in this situation.
|
| 10:09 |
Brendan Gawlowski: The fun thing about the late innings here is that they’re running out of their best arms.
|
| 10:09 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Roll it like a candlestick bowling ball
|
| 10:10 |
v2micca: I know it’s still early in his career. But is it safe project Judge as the most iconic 99 in Yankees lore.
|
| 10:11 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 10:12 |
bosoxforlife: Snell could go several innings if it goes that far. The Yankees would be hard pressed to match him.
|
| 10:12 |
Steve O: Wait you think Edwin Diaz is a top 3 reliever? Maybe in 2018
|
| 10:13 |
Brendan Gawlowski: He struck out two guys an inning this season
|
| 10:13 |
Steve O: That’s a joke – I’m actually an Edwin Diaz fan
|
| 10:13 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I took the bait
|
| 10:15 |
sadtrombone: Dang this game is tense.
|
| 10:15 |
Lzfreak: Facing Aroldis Chapman seems like it would be very uncomfortable
|
| 10:16 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes. “I throw 100, hide the ball well, and give no fucks about you or your family. Ready to bat?”
|
| 10:16 |
Steve O: This game is in the whoever hits a HR first wins stage
|
| 10:17 |
GraphFans: I think facing any major league pitcher would be uncomfortable for us mere mortals.
|
| 10:17 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I faced one in high school and it was a humbling experience
|
| 10:17 |
Bds: We can use the f word on Fangraphs? Fuck yeah.
|
| 10:18 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m new(ish) here so at the risk of getting yelled at later tonight, go nuts.
|
| 10:18 |
Dan Szymborski: I wont’ tell if you don’t!
|
| 10:18 |
Brendan Gawlowski: that’s the fuckin’ spirit, Dan
|
| 10:18 |
bosoxforlife: I keep a montage of Rajai Davis and Jose Altuve AB’s handy when I need to relax and get a good laugh.
|
| 10:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: You know, that Altuve homer doesn’t really do it for me
|
| 10:19 |
Eel Ffilc: Let’s hear the name drop!
|
| 10:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Matt Boyd
|
| 10:19 |
tommytoms: you guys are working at 10 PM on a friday. i think cussing is a fair compromise
|
| 10:19 |
GraphFans: Fangraphs After Dark.
|
| 10:19 |
Derek: This at-bat counts as a “battle” I think
|
| 10:19 |
sadtrombone: I also faced a guy with legit majors heat as an adolescent and I basically never played baseball again.
|
| 10:19 |
sadtrombone: The guy in front of me got beaned by a 95 MPH fastball and I was in the on-deck circle.
|
| 10:19 |
thomas: Brendan, who was the better WA high school pitcher, Blake Snell or you? And who is the best active player from WA?
|
| 10:19 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Blake Snell and Blake Snell
|
| 10:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Did you leave while on-deck?
|
| 10:20 |
5 Run Homer: That was cool as fuck
|
| 10:20 |
Derek: That is some pretty sweet postseason baseball
|
| 10:20 |
Lzfreak: Oh no they killed the rally!
|
| 10:20 |
Brendan Gawlowski: After what happened earlier this year, that’s awesome
|
| 10:21 |
5 Run Homer: what is a Michael Brosseau
|
| 10:22 |
Shiiiiiiiin Gojira!: If I were on the Rays, I would be the taunting the Yankees with a British accent
|
| 10:22 |
tommytoms: the cardboard cutouts don’t seem very excited
|
| 10:22 |
bosoxforlife: MIke Brosseau, seven years in the minors but the Rays know talent and find it in the strangest places.
|
| 10:22 |
David: Heck of an AB there against Chapman
|
| 10:22 |
5 Run Homer: Why is Chapman getting hit always the coolest thing I’ve ever seen
|
| 10:23 |
Derek: Should have kept it tied though to avoid the odd-run lead
|
| 10:23 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Still the weirdest damn thing I’ve heard on a broadcast
|
| 10:23 |
cg: biggest karma home run in history
|
| 10:23 |
Brendan Gawlowski: What else would be close?
|
| 10:23 |
Erik: What is the theoretical limit of percentage of runs scored off of homers that you would still enjoy and recognize as baseball?
|
| 10:24 |
bosoxforlife: That is Morton and Snell in the pen. Who comes in?
|
| 10:24 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think we’re there, but in 2019 we hit the point on the curve where I think the prevalence of dingers made the game noticeably worse
|
| 10:24 |
sadtrombone: I was actually about type something in response to Brendan’s thing about facing Chapman, like “he has given up a lot of homers this year, it’s weird, probably just a fluke” and then…this.
|
| 10:24 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Could still be a fluke!
|
| 10:25 |
Brendan Gawlowski: And of course that probably dies on the front of the track if he hits it with a 2018 ball
|
| 10:25 |
Oddball Herrera: It’s not homers that kills the game, it’s homers + strikeouts
|
| 10:25 |
Brendan Gawlowski: They are intertwined
|
| 10:25 |
Brendan Gawlowski: This kind of HR rate without the strikeouts would also be bad
|
| 10:25 |
Eel Ffilc: My forearm would have certainly snapped in half had I celebrated like that with Yandy
|
| 10:26 |
5 Run Homer: What’s the history between Chapman and Brosseau? I’m out of the loop
|
| 10:26 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Chapman missed his head with 101 by two inches earlier this season
|
| 10:26 |
bosoxforlife: Erik, I love your question. I still can’t stop watching even after 70+ years but I enjoyed the actual game more when there were far fewer strikeouts, along with a lot of hit and runs which have disappeared.
|
| 10:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Of course! It’s still great, and some people really enjoy the extra dingers. It’s not my preferred way to see the game played, but let’s not get crazy
|
| 10:27 |
Bds: Wish tbs had shown a shot of those Yankees fans in that condo they kept showing earlier
|
| 10:27 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Bad form to televise a super spreader
|
| 10:27 |
Oddball Herrera: This type of home run rate without the strikeouts wouldn’t leave the game feeling like a bunch of guys flailing at pitches until one happens to make contact
|
| 10:28 |
cg: why am i always on delay by two pitches? is it streaming services i.e tbs streaming/fs1 etc? its annoying to always know what happens somewhere else
|
| 10:28 |
Dan Szymborski: Stream is a bit behind.
|
| 10:28 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Whatever the HOU OAK series had as a percentage of homers was above my limit.
|
| 10:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I see what you’re saying now, Oddball.
|
| 10:28 |
Dan Szymborski: Oof
|
| 10:28 |
Brendan Gawlowski: yeah Hou/Oak was more than a bit much
|
| 10:28 |
Derek: Are we surpirsed Castillo is still out there?
|
| 10:28 |
Bds: Yes but added hrs make comebacks more likely which adds fun
|
| 10:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I forget who wrote the article, but someone studied that and it actually doesn’t
|
| 10:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: For every extra comeback, there’s a close game turned blowout the other direction
|
| 10:29 |
Derek: Stanton looked completely uninterested in swinging that at-bat
|
| 10:29 |
Bds: Thanks for doing this Dan and Brendan.
|
| 10:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Folks, it’s been a ton of fun on my end
|
| 10:29 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Ten years ago me can’t believe I’m doing this, haha
|
| 10:30 |
Brendan Gawlowski: But really, thank you all for joining tonight
|
| 10:30 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I hope to see you next Friday
|
| 10:30 |
Eel Ffilc: So far the DS series celebrations have seemed subdued compared to years past but this one feels like it will be more lively
|
| 10:30 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Almost certainly
|
| 10:30 |
Derek: Testicles, f-bombs, and baseball: it’s been a great chat!
|
| 10:31 |
DB: Yes thanks guys for doing this
|
| 10:31 |
Brendan Gawlowski: We sure signed up for the right game!
|
| 10:31 |
tommytoms: you all jinxed this. gonna go 18 innings now.
|
| 10:31 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Where’s the Gio HRshela guy
|
| 10:31 |
bosoxforlife: As a great baseball philosopher once said, “It over till it’s over”.
|
| 10:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Raystros vs. Bravgers!
|
| 10:32 |
bosoxforlife: I love all things Fangraphy but these chats are the best. Thank you Dan and Brendan.
|
| 10:32 |
sadtrombone: Fun to chat now that watching in person with random people is off limits.
|
| 10:32 |
Brendan Gawlowski: As Dan Szymborski said: “Hockey pucks”
|
| 10:32 |
Dan Szymborski: ARE YOU SAYING IT WAS NOT FUN BEFORE?
|
| 10:32 |
Web gem: Stuck in his web.
|
| 10:32 |
Derek: Shocked we never saw Snell but that was masterfully done by the Rays pitching staff
|
| 10:32 |
Brendan Gawlowski: They were awesome tonight.
|
| 10:33 |
Eel Ffilc: Great job Jeff Sullivans
|
| 10:33 |
sadtrombone: Dan, if I could watch it with you in person, I am sure it would be even more fun.
|
| 10:33 |
Brendan Gawlowski: I feel left out, Mr. Trombone
|
| 10:33 |
DB: Snell goes game 1 now so that works
|
| 10:34 |
sadtrombone: Awww Brendan don’t guilt trip me like that.
|
| 10:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Well anyway, thanks for coming out everyone!
|
| 10:34 |
Lzfreak: That was quite the snowcone
|
| 10:34 |
Dan Szymborski: We built readers all night, so hope it was fun for you guys.
|
| 10:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Check out FanGraphs.com and if you don’t already have a membership and have the ability, we’d be super happy for your support!
|
| 10:34 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks again for stopping by everyone
|
| 10:34 |
Brendan Gawlowski: Have a good night, stay safe, and let’s do it again next week
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
