Yankees Re-Up With Anthony Rizzo on Two-Year Contract
As stars are being signed and traded, the Yankees went the low-key route on Tuesday, re-signing first baseman Anthony Rizzo to a two-year deal worth $32 million. Rizzo, who turns 33 in August, hit .249/.320/.428 with eight homers in 49 games after coming to New York from the Cubs in a three-player trade at the deadline.
Last year was Rizzo’s comeback season from a down 2020, but his bounce wasn’t as significant as that of his then-teammates Javier Báez and Kris Bryant. Part of it is due to his disappointing year being less of a disaster, but Rizzo was also the oldest of that trio. Signing a seven-year, $41 million contract while still in his pre-arbitration years gave him a guaranteed income, but the deal worked out better for the Cubs in the end, as he only now hits free agency for the first time. If he had been a free agent after 2018, ZiPS projects he would have made $101 million over the last four seasons rather than the approximately $42 million he earned. For how much you’d expect him to get paid in 2022, this seems like an opportune moment to crank out the projection:
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | .260 | .362 | .461 | 469 | 69 | 122 | 21 | 2 | 23 | 75 | 56 | 6 | 123 | 2 | 2.6 |
| 2023 | .255 | .357 | .445 | 440 | 63 | 112 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 68 | 52 | 5 | 118 | 1 | 2.1 |
ZiPS projects a two-year, $35 million contract or a three-year, $47 million one, so $32 million over two years seems about in line with at least this computer’s expectations. This actually represents a bit of a performance uptick; one of my biggest sources of negative feedback from projections this cycle was Rizzo’s overall triple-slash being in the neighborhood of Giancarlo Stanton’s. Much of that is due to Yankee Stadium, one of the best stadiums for him in the projections, thanks to being a friendly home for lefty sluggers. Steamer is likely picking up on this as well, as it also gives Rizzo a similar boost over his 2021 line in New York.
ZiPS projects about a $6 million benefit for Rizzo, a little less than half a win per year, by playing in Yankee Stadium instead of a neutral park. He also snags an opt-out clause he can exercise after the 2022 season; ZiPS gives him a 31% chance of opting out as being worthwhile, bumping the overall valuation of the deal by $2 million.
Now, one can note that Rizzo only hit .232/.330/.354 in games at Yankee Stadium, but individualized park lines don’t really have much in the way of predictive value for hitters. A player’s actual home/road splits don’t become as predictive as splits generated from using generalized park factors (with lefty/righty numbers) until you actually have a decade worth of those splits. This phenomenon is especially dangerous when analyzing players in extreme parks. Trevor Story’s home/road splits are larger than you would expect from a player at Coors Field, but that doesn’t mean his outlook is worse when he leaves Coors; the generic factors are still far more predictive. I experienced this trap first-hand with Dante Bichette way back when, assuming that his lines after leaving Colorado would look more like his road splits than his standard park-adjusted stats. I was wrong, and this was my initial impetus for examining this specific issue.
The valuation of Rizzo and his fit for the team seem right on point. Where the contract is a little awkward is the limbo in which Luke Voit now resides. Voit was a late bloomer, so he is nearly as old as Rizzo, but all he’s done in New York has hit. In just over 1,100 plate appearances for the Yankees, or about two full seasons worth of playing time, he’s put up a .271/.363/.520 line for a 137 wRC+ to go along with 68 homers. ZiPS projects a 119 wRC+ for Voit, though with considerably worse defense than Rizzo, something which wasn’t helped by the torn meniscus he suffered last spring. And with Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge entrenched in the outfield corners, New York has no motivation to play Stanton, its primary DH, in the field all that often, leaving no room for Voit. (That is, unless Judge is suddenly unavailable for 70 games, costing him a free-agency year.) Like his teammate DJ LeMahieu, Voit is a 2020 star without a clear role on the team. He may be the designated hitter for a National League team by the time you read this!
Already over the first two CBT thresholds, this may be the last big move the Yankees make this spring. These are Hal’s Yankees, not George’s, and I suspect that the presence of two terrific shortstop prospects in Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza and the acquisition of Isiah Kiner-Falefa signal the unofficial death of any chance the Yankees bring in either Story or Carlos Correa. The Yankees project as a serious contender, both for the playoffs generally and the AL East divisionally, but they’re merely one of four strong contenders in the division, and while Rizzo is a fair signing at a fair price, he’s not the type of player who would make them a clear favorite.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Appreciate the write-up Dan. Now go try and get a nap in before the next major transaction happens.
It’s a fair deal, but still feels a bit short considering they’ll have a black at hole at catcher and probably at SS with IKF. This is probably a 92ish win team that can win 95-97 with good health/luck. Also I’d keep Voit. The Yankees will need to pinch hit their catcher every night, so Luke Voit could get that single AB. And he could be in the lineup against tough lefties. Or if anyone gets hurt, which if the last two years were any indication, you won’t have to call up someone like Ronald Guzman or something.
I love Voit, but it’s hard for me to imagine that he’s worth more on the roster than in a trade.
Even without him, the Yankees still have 5 starting-quality IFs for 4 positions, with a starter-level backup at every position. So they already have pinch-hitters and match-up guys available. And Voit only plays 1B and DH, so even as injury depth he’s pretty limited. Unless Stanton or Rizzo go down (or multiple guys do), Voit probably doesn’t see a whole lot more playing time from an injury. Plus he can’t run, which further limits how much he can help from the bench.
Voit’s too good to just sit around and eke out ~150 PAs, though, which means he’s almost certainly worth more to someone else than he is to the Yankees. I absolutely hope they don’t just dump him to clear a roster spot, but if they can swap him for a reliever or more versatile position player, they’re bound to be better off than they’d be with him on the bench.
Also, I have serious doubts about how well Voit would perform in a bench role. It’s tough enough to play without a regular role or consistent playing time, and on top of that, the Yankees clearly don’t want him in their everyday lineup any more, which definitely seemed to weigh on him last year. Who knows, maybe it’d fire him up to prove the front office wrong, but still. It’s not exactly a situation that’s setting him up for success.
I don’t think a non-elite bat only 1B/DH with injury issues has much value tbh. Maybe they could get a reliever with some upside they like, or a prospect, but nothing significant I don’t think. Voit might be unhappy to be a part time player, but tough luck. If he hits the way he did in 2020, he’ll force himself into the lineup as injuries pile up. I agree though, the bench role isn’t easy and if he’s going to be a malcontent baby about it, they should probably just trade him for whatever they can get like they did with Sonny Gray. Though I do think he’d easily get 300-400 ABs as a part timer. Could play 30-40 games at 1B, another 30-40 at DH with Stanton in the OF (more if Stanton or Rizzo get hurt), and he could pinch hit every day for IKF or one of the catchers. There’s a path to decent playing time with no injuries. Maybe it’s twice a week. But with two injuries we’re looking at giving at bats to *checks notes* Ronald Guzman? Yikes.
The return doesn’t have to be huge to be worth more than a from-the-bench Voit. And the dude did have an MLB-top-10 wRC+ from 2018-2020. An NL team looking for a DH could do a heck of a lot worse.
Again, I don’t think they should just dump him for nothing. Having a bat like his on the bench is a heck of a luxury, precisely because he’s too good for that role. But if there’s a team out there that can give him something closer to a starter’s playing time, which I think is fairly likely, then he’s definitionally worth more to them than he is to the Yankees.
I like Voit a lot, and would be bummed to see him leave NY. But he just seems like a perfect candidate for one of those win-win trades where both teams have a surplus at a position the other team needs.
Even if they had kept Voit, he would not have gotten to start anywhere close to twice a week if both Rizzo and Stanton remain healthy.
Voit will find a home somewhere. The Yankees won’t get much back, but between the Padres, Rangers, and Cubs (and maybe some other teams too if they decide they want to win soon-ish) I’m pretty sure he’ll be DHing for some team that doesn’t have good options there.
I’m still not sure why LeMahieu is the one who is on the outs instead of Gleyber Torres. LeMahieu will probably spell Donaldson at third and play a lot at 2nd, at the minimum.
Maybe the Cubs could get an all-star team of guys who were hyped young’uns with Yankees. Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar. Too bad they traded Gary Sanchez, he would have fit too. They’ve already got Clint Frazier.
DJLM is probably on the outs because he can play 3B/2B/1B, whereas Gleyber really is only a 2B with some SS. Though I think the Yankees would like to play Gleyber only at 2B to see if they can get him in the right head space to be productive. He was clearly bringing his defensive issues at SS to the plate with him. With his throwing issues, I definitely wouldn’t put him at 3B either and I don’t think he’s played at all in the majors at 3B.
Agreed on Voit, which is why I’d just keep him for the inevitable injury. It’s nice to have Luke Voit if one of the big bats hits the IL for two weeks or something. They’d probably get a prospect in the 20-30 range for him. Eh.
No one will take DJ’s contact. Too many years.
Not saying they’re going to trade him, just that he’s better suited for a utility role than Gleyber since he can play more positions. I don’t think they’re looking to trade him. The Yankees love DJLM and probably just think his down year was due to the injury he played with. Also 5/75 is nothing these days. They could easily eat a portion of the contract and trade him away. Not like he’s Eric Hosmer.
I don’t know why they’d think that last year was a down year. It was much more in line with his career performance than 2019-2020, when his power numbers seemed pretty obviously inflated by the hyper-juiced ball
He was playing with a hernia last year. Core injuries obviously are obviously rough to hit through. Could’ve been a combination of regression/injury. I’m not the biggest DJLM fan, so I don’t think 2019-2020 was his true talent either, but I think he’s likely a 110 wRC+ guy which is about where zips projects him. With good defense, that’s a 3 win player. Also he played a ton at 1B, dropping his defensive value and fWAR.
I agree that it seems surprising that DJM would be the one projected by RR to not start. It is unlikely everyone is healthy at the exact same time, but, if that is the case, I would imagine Torres is the backup, not DJM. Besides, having too many good players is rarely an issue. Of course that would require those players to be good, which I guess is up for debate.
I’m not convinced they’re done with their moves yet. I could definitely see Gleyber being moved at some point.
I agree they’re likely not done trading, but Cashman won’t move Gleyber at a low value. He was a stud as recently as 2019 and is still only 25, so they’re not going to let the last 595 ABs, or roughly a season’s worth that also encompassed the crazy season of Covid, influence their decision. A talented young player who has three years of control generally doesn’t get jettisoned at a low point.
Now, I never quite believed in 2019 Gleyber, but I also don’t quite believe in 2021 Gleyber. He’s likely somewhere between. Shortly after the midpoint, he appeared to begin making adjustments back to the type of hitter he was when he first arrived in the majors with a more measured hitting approach. From mid-July on, he stopped trying to hit HRs and slashed .296.345.466. The Yankees will be fine with that version of Gleyber Torres, and they’re going to give him that chance to show it in 2022, as they should.
I’m not sure I get it he’s had two down years in a row, though his hard hit rates were good last year, but he’s pulling the ball more than before and the shift is hurting him. I guess Yankee stadium will help him as a lefty bat but he was not a big bat with them last year.
The Yankees still seem pretty conscientious about new long-term financial commitments, and Rizzo, while not a star anymore, is probably getting paid around 20% at most of what Freddie Freeman will get
2/$32M vs 6/$168.
21%.
Good guess.
Rizzo is unlikely to produce at Freeman levels but the yankees don’t need him to. The money they save and players displaced (cough*Voit*cough) can and should go to pitching and catching.
I mean, he’ll make a hell of a lot more money than me in his career, but hard to not note the poor timing on Rizzo’s part. First, he takes the early extension that makes him ridiculously underpaid. Then, at least according to reports, he turns down the second extension that would have been much more lucrative than this deal. He still will make more money than one could possibly need in several lifetimes, but that sure is some bad luck.
Seems like it was based on decisions, not luck.
Thanks, Billy Zane.
Aaaaand… the Yankees’ offseason grade goes from a C- to an F.
Rizzo will get on base a bit, but his best offensive days are surely behind him, he has a bad back, his lefthandedness is offset by his reverse splits, he’s overrated defensively (I believe some metrics had him as the worst 1B in baseball last year), and he can’t play in Toronto (and maybe NY). For the life of me I don’t understand the love that many Yankee fans have for him. My only explanation is that they only remember the great first 3 or 4 games he had with the team.
There’s no reason to think that he’ll be any better than Voit, and he’s making 3 times as much. This was the rumored signing all offseason and I hoped it was noise and that Cashman wouldn’t be so dumb, but I guess the joke’s on me….
They’re basically running out the same team they did last year when they had the BaseRuns of an 88 win team, except that Josh Donaldson adds another big bat to the lineup and they have Gallo / Rizzo for the whole year. Which is a totally reasonable place to be. They could use another catcher and starting pitcher but that’s a pretty normal problem to have, and not especially dire.
To be fair, I think baseruns doesn’t know how to adjust for teams with elite bullpens that win a bunch of games by a run or two or elite offenses (like the bluejays) that just bludgeon teams and win lots of games by 4+ runs. Teams with elite bullpens will outperform their expected wins, and I’m expecting that in 2022. If they win 87 games or something, it’ll be with a lower expected wins (assuming their bullpen is still elite) and it’ll be because of injuries or because they didn’t hit enough. Or because they’re in gauntlet of a division.
I guess I can believe that, as long as Yankee Stadium is his home park, he will be worth the money, but . . . who exactly were they bidding against to get it there? If he’s getting an opt-out, I don’t see how the market would bear much more than 2/22. He just doesn’t profile well almost anywhere else.
I’m still not convinced Voit gets moved. It’s a bit weird in today’s game to have a 1B-only on the bench, but the Yankees now have a light-hitting C and SS in their projected starting line-up that they could need to pinch-hit for if they’re trailing. It’s probably a waste of his abilities, but he could still play a role.
The Yankees should probably try for one of the A’s remaining big starters and maybe add a RH RP (they currently have three non-Chapman lefties in their bullpen, you probably don’t need all three), and call it an offseason. While it’s not the one Yankees fans were hoping for, it’s still solid enough and the team definitely looks better on paper now than it did last season.
You very rarely pinch-hit for your catcher unless he just got injured or you’re a rare team that’s carrying 3 catchers on the active roster.
I didn’t see it mentioned here, and was somewhat curious. Rizzo says he is not vaxxed. As of today no one can play at home if they are not vaxxed. The general consensus is that the mayor will lift those requirements, but what if he doesn’t? Seems like the Yankees have to know that they have nothing to worry about or else this would be a rather risky signing. Read something that was pretty interesting yesterday. Do not recall exact tam %, but the Mets were in the 75%ish range, but that includes staff. Whereas the team itself was only 55%! Lowest in the league. If, somehow the rules are not changed by the home opener it will be an interesting situation to monitor. I’d imagine a lot of people would get vaxxed albeit actually, or on paper by then, but still…interesting.
The original Luke Voit trade keeps looking better and better from the Cardinals’ perspective after how everyone used to think the Yankees fleeced them in that trade.
That “Voit to the Padres, Rangers, or Cubs” call seemed to be just about right.