Yankees Rescue Neil Walker from Value Bin
At least 236 major-league players will earn more than Neil Walker in 2018.
Among second basemen alone, 18 are expected to receive something better than the $4 million the New York Yankees guaranteed to pay Walker, who remained available into the middle of March.
Source: Second baseman Neil Walker has agreed to a deal with the New York Yankees. Still pending a physical.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 12, 2018
Walker has produced seven straight seasons of at least two wins. He ranks 61st amongst position players in WAR (11.7) since the start of the 2014 season. He was ranked by former FanGraphs manager editor Dave Cameron as 11th-best free agent available this winter.
But Walker became a face of baseball’s historically cold stove this winter — one that has been particularly unpleasant for the middle class of free agent.
There are obviously some caveats with Walker. He’s on the wrong side of 30. He’s had some nagging injuries. And, for a number of clubs, luxury tax is acting more like a hard cap this winter. The Dodgers, for instance, have spent only $4 million on free agents this offseason. There is no mechanism forcing owners to spend. Walker’s former club, the Pirates, have not signed a free agent to a major-league deal this offseason.
Even while lacking the burden of a qualifying offer and the attendant compensation, no market apparently ever developed for Walker. He accepted a one-year contract on March 12 despite the FanGraphs crowd forecasting a three-year, $39 million deal.
While this was not the deal Walker wanted, or that he expected, it is a great deal for the Yankees.
Not only does the addition of Walker at just $5 million permit New York to remain below the luxury-tax threshold but also allows the club to address one of the few question marks in their lineup — in this case, with a player projected to record a 111 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR over 595 plate appearances this year.
The switch-hitting Walker has always been better from the left side the plate, and he produced a 127 wRC+ mark against right-handed pitching last season (67 wRC+ as a right-handed hitter). For his career, he has a 121 mark against right-handed pitching and a 91 mark against lefties.
While the Yankees already had a formidable lineup, they were a bit heavy on right-handed batters and most of their power is on the right side in the form of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton. Last year, the club ranked only 14th in baseball in home runs by lefties despite playing in one of the more favorable left-handed hitters’ parks in the game. It’s probably fair to assume that Walker’s HR/FB of 10% to his pull side last season will improve this year.
Furthermore, the signing allows the Yankees to be more patient with prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar if they feel the need be. For what it’s worth, Torres has struggled some this spring.
Walker figures to platoon with Ronald Torreyes or Brandon Drury at second base. The left-handed Tyler Wade was also in the mix but suffered a wrist injury over the weekend, though it is not serious.
While the Yankees could eventually have too many infielders for too few infield spots, that’s not a bad problem to have. And the Yankees are paying a starting-caliber player in Walker at a utility-player price. At this price, Walker will have value to the Yankees and other clubs.
Walker is hardly alone amongst free agents who have struggled to find suitors this offseason. Over the weekend, Lance Lynn and Jonathan Lucroy signed one-year deals while Jake Arrieta agreed to a three-year deal below his initial asks.
Below is an updated version of a table I published last week, which in this case reveals that the middle class of free agents has agreed to deals roughly 38% below the crowd’s dollar forecast. I defined “middle class” as those players whom the FanGraphs crowd forecast to sign deals of $45 million and less. (From 2012 to -17, the same class of player fell 19% below the crowd’s estimate.)
(Note: The players highlighted in gold exceeded crowd expectations. All nine are relief pitchers.)
| Top 50 Rank | Player | Crowd | Actual | Difference | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Neil Walker | $39.0 | $5.0 | -$34.0 | -87.2% |
| 12 | CC Sabathia | $26.0 | $10.0 | -$16.0 | -61.5% |
| 13 | Todd Frazier | $42.0 | $17.0 | -$25.0 | -59.5% |
| 14 | Jay Bruce | $39.0 | $39.0 | $0.0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | Brandon Morrow | $18.0 | $21.0 | $3.0 | 16.7% |
| 19 | Addison Reed | $27.0 | $16.8 | -$10.2 | -37.8% |
| 20 | Jarrod Dyson | $16.0 | $7.5 | -$8.5 | -53.1% |
| 21 | Eduardo Nunez | $33.0 | $8.0 | -$25.0 | -75.8% |
| 22 | Mike Minor | $27.0 | $28.0 | $1.0 | 3.7% |
| 23 | Jonathan Lucroy | $33.0 | $6.5 | -$26.5 | -80.3% |
| 24 | Bryan Shaw | $21.0 | $27.0 | $6.0 | 28.6% |
| 25 | Logan Morrison | $20.0 | $6.5 | -$13.5 | -67.5% |
| 26 | Joe Smith | $12.0 | $15.0 | $3.0 | 25.0% |
| 27 | Anthony Swarzak | $14.0 | $14.0 | $0.0 | 0.0% |
| 28 | Jaime Garcia | $36.0 | $10.0 | -$26.0 | -72.2% |
| 29 | Yonder Alonso | $20.0 | $16.0 | -$4.0 | -20.0% |
| 30 | Jason Vargas | $20.0 | $16.0 | -$4.0 | -20.0% |
| 31 | Juan Nicasio | $16.0 | $17.0 | $1.0 | 6.3% |
| 32 | Pat Neshek | $16.0 | $16.3 | $0.3 | 1.9% |
| 33 | Carlos Gonzalez | $22.0 | $8.0 | -$14.0 | -63.6% |
| 34 | Carlos Gomez | $24.0 | $4.0 | -$20.0 | -83.3% |
| 35 | Andrew Cashner | $22.0 | $16.0 | -$6.0 | -27.3% |
| 36 | Tony Watson | $12.0 | $8.5 | -$3.5 | -29.2% |
| 37 | Michael Pineda | $16.0 | $10.0 | -$6.0 | -37.5% |
| 38 | Jake McGee | $24.0 | $27.0 | $3.0 | 12.5% |
| 39 | Tommy Hunter | $12.0 | $18.0 | $6.0 | 50.0% |
| 40 | Steve Cishek | $12.0 | $13.0 | $1.0 | 8.3% |
| 41 | Jhoulys Chacin | $20.0 | $15.5 | -$4.5 | -22.5% |
| 42 | Lucas Duda | $18.0 | $3.5 | -$14.5 | -80.6% |
| 43 | Alex Avila | $16.0 | $8.3 | -$7.7 | -48.1% |
| 44 | Cameron Maybin | $16.0 | $3.5 | -$12.5 | -78.1% |
| 46 | Howie Kendrick | $16.0 | $7.0 | -$9.0 | -56.3% |
| 47 | Brandon Kintzler | $14.0 | $10.0 | -$4.0 | -28.6% |
| 48 | Welington Castillo | $18.0 | $15.0 | -$3.0 | -16.7% |
| 49 | Doug Fister | $8.0 | $4.0 | -$4.0 | -50.0% |
| 50 | Jon Jay | $8.0 | $3.0 | -$5.0 | -62.5% |
| Totals | — | $753.0 | $470.9 | -$282.1 | -37.5% |
A one-year, $5 million deal for a player of Walker’s caliber is probably not what anyone was expecting. While it’s a poor deal for the player, it’s a steal for the club. The Yankees are a super team that became stronger.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
As a Red Sox fan, I’m bummed that the Yankees got a steal like this. As for Walker, playing half his games in Yankee Stadium should give his numbers a sweet boost for free agency next year. In that regard, he made out better than Moustakas.
I can’t quickly find a proper source but anecdotally 2B age in dog years once in their 30’s. Think Alomar, Utley, Pedroia, and many other high peak types.
If teams are thinking similarly and are especially wary to give big $/years to older 2B (because even the stars decline quickly) it’s not that hard to see why Walker’s ok glove, history of back issues, and platoon splits severely hampered his desirability.
There’s also a much greater deal of downside than upside in signing Walker to anything like “market” rates. What’s the max war he could possibly put up this year? 3? In how many more scenarios does he put up <2 and make you wish you'd given a pre-arb guy the playing time/development opportunity?
Fantastic signing for the Yanks who have the right roster to maximize his talents and sub out his glove / RH bat as needed.
Agree with your larger point about 2B aging poorly due to the demands of the position but as a Phillies fan I’m required to point out that Utley declined much more gracefully than you’re giving him credit for here. He had 8 war in his age 30 season then put up 21 war over the next five years even with injuries making him average fewer than 120 games a year.
Duly noted, thank you for the correction re: Utley’s decline. I forgot about how late of a start his real prime got age-wise.
4 million means he is being paid for 0.5 WAR. Decline is not much of a factor on a 1yr deal.
This is such a better/more succinct version of what I was trying to express. I’d have been very hesitant going multiple guaranteed years on his profile as an older non-elite 2B but you can’t go wrong on these contract terms.
And Pedroia has averaged 3.5 WAR in his age 31-34 seasons, even with 2015 and 2017 shortened by injuries; many still expect him to be a 3 WAR player. Roberto Alomar’s age 31-33 seasons were his best, then fell off a cliff at age 34.
While long-term deals for players in their 30s is a losing proposition in general, and Neil Walker is not anywhere near the level of the players above, I think the impression that 2B age poorly is something of a myth. Look at the 2B leaderboard from last year:
Daniel Murphy, 32, 4.3 WAR
Jed Lowrie, 33, 3.5 WAR
Robinson Cano, 35, 3.2 WAR
Ian Kinsler, 35, 2.4 WAR
Neil Walker, 32, 2.4 WAR
Dustin Pedroia, 34, 1.9 WAR
Brandon Philips, 36, 1.6 WAR
Asdrubal Cabrera, 32. 1.3 WAR
Chase Utley, 39, 1.3 WAR
That’s actually more 1+ WAR players aged 32 or older than any other position group, with former stars like Utley and Philips providing some level of value even at the tail-end of their decline. That is in fact one of the likely reasons that Walker’s market was depressed – there are so many passable options at 2B, and Brandon Philips is still available for a minor league deal.
Yeah, the age curve seems potentially very scary for him. Once you layer lots of time missed over the last two years onto his age, it’s not unreasonable for alarm bells to go off. The comparison that comes to mind for me is someone in an entirely different position: Alex Gordon. He was also 32 and coming off a season where injuries cost him a lot of games for the very first time, after a long run of quality production including the injury-shortened year. What he’s done since is put up 1.3 total wins over two years.
Walker, meanwhile, has missed 50 games each of the last two years after missing no more than 32 in any of the previous five years. Last year, the biggest chunk missing was in July, and he clearly hit the ball less well afterward than before. His first half/second half splits show both more grounders and more infield flies.
All that said, $4 million is chump change for a quality player. Heck, $4 million would be a good deal even if he fell off as far as Gordon did. There’s enough there to cause worries, but something still feels wrong here.
For a price like this, I’m surprised a marginal contender didn’t pick up on him. The Blue Jays came to mind as a fit early on for a 2B, but maybe they thought 3yr $39M was too steep. Maybe Walker gave the Yankees a discount (though I doubt it) but if the Blue Jays offered even 1yr $8M that’s a no-brainer for both sides imo.
The Jays have a healthy (for now) Devon Travis as well as Yangervis Solarte for 2B options.
+1 but even if the Jays wanted to, it doesn’t appear they have the money to spend.
They fought Stroman over $400K–which in subsequent years will be worth a little more in new contracts, but still, it’s $400K.
Walker probably wasn’t wanting to go that cheap when they were making their move. He probably wouldn’t have been thrilled with the backup prospect either. I doubt anyone wants to bet on a guy missing more than half the time.
Solarte was on their radar last season with all their injuries. In part they were after Solarte for positional utility. He was originally being penciled in for some OF time as well, before they went and got Granderson and Grichuk.
Moustakas’s and Walker’s contracts to me are the only ones that are truly mystifying in a “wow, that’s low” kind of way. I think the market for infielders this year was just a total disaster. Cozart couldn’t find a team that would pay him to play shortstop, Moustakas got hammered, Walker couldn’t find a team, etc. Too many teams are set around the infield or don’t think they’ll be competitive, and yet it’s still hard to believe that no one topped them.
Just look at the bench players on the Pirates: Freese, SRod, and Frazier. My guess is anyone willing to pay their salaries could have the first two, and neither Frazier nor Harrison could be that pricey in trade.
Even the Padres have a two way battle for 2B. There are just a lot of decent infielders around for basically no cost – one might even say they are nearly free replacements for teams looking to add.
Moustakas, Cozart and Walker would make a fine starting 3B, SS, 2B trio for any team.
I get what you’re saying (that this bargain-basement trio would be pretty good), but Cleveland, Houston, Both LA teams, Nationals, etc would probably disagree with you.
Right. More of the idea that a decent infield could have been had on the cheap.
Brace for the Servo Salvo
Anyone who says there’s a narrative being pushed here should think of how they might feel if these player’s contracts were publicly traded stocks, and they bought the portfolio at the consensus pre-hot stove prices.
Investments inherently carry risks. Deposits are not FDIC insured. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Teams are stocks. Players are more like corporate bonds.
I think it is only 4 mil guaranteed
What makes a “super team” super?
They wear capes?
And masks. Need masks.
So there isn’t anyone who can give adequate response?
Seriously?
Currently there is a group of teams that are projected to be solid division contenders/winners by a fair margin. Rosters both talented and deep so it would take massive injuries/collapses for them to miss at least a wild card.
Super team is shorthand for “heavily favored to reach the playoffs from day one”.
The annointed “super teams” include the usual big budget teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, as well as Cleveland, Washington, and Houston.
Doesn’t mean they won’t be challenged or are guaranteed to make the post season, just that the odds are with them and it would be surprising if they fall short and it would be shocking if more than one falls short.
I think it’s kind of like an “ace”, where there are lots of definitions. It is shorthand for “if a team like this was built 5 years ago we’d say they were the clear favorites for the title” but it also implies that there are so many of them now it doesn’t make sense.
As an operational definition, you could say they are “teams projected to win above 91 or 92 games” or something like that. But even then I still have a hard time believing the Red Sox are actually going to be better than the Nationals so it’s weird to exclude the Nationals and include the Red Sox.
Much like Arrieta may have had a tougher time because of the Cubs’ disinterest, the same applies here with the Brewers. They added extra big-money outfielders to create a bit of a log jam instead of bringing this guy back to play over the guys they had last year. This probably does not inspire confidence from other teams.
Using AAV instead of total spend, results in a ~27% shortfall for the charted players above, whereas typical shortfall from crowdsourced projections for such players is around 20%. IMO this topic would be more comprehensively and transparently covered if you would add the AAV numbers.
Walker was crowdsourced for $13m AAV, he got 5, so that’s a 62% shortfall But by using total spend, it’s a 87.2% shortfall. Repeating this method a few dozens of times can distort the discussion and is needlessly low-information.
Further, there simply isn’t evidence that Walker accepted this deal based on a lack of normal-market offers, it is certain that he turned down at least one market deal this offseason, with some evidence suggesting that he may have turned down two such offers. “The offseason” includes Qualified Offers.
Walker did not fail to get a market offer this offseason- he simply failed to accept one. He had a $17.4m offer for 1 year, he turned it down. The hidden cost effecting his market was two fold: (1) he had draft pick and int’l pool money attached because he turned down a QO; and (2) he refused to accept timely offers at market rate and therefore refused his bidders until after teams had constructed their rosters.
Not only did he turn down the QO, but as you noted in your prior Walker article, according to Marc Craig of the Athletic, Walker was having “plenty of back and forth” with the Mets, including a proposal about a 3/40.
Even so- it’s still a very cheap deal, a steal for the Yanks no doubt, and curious that LAA or NYM didn’t gazump this deal at a higher wage. Still, it is unfortunate for Walker who is valuable enough to warrant substantially more pay.
Walker accepted a QO from the Mets previously. He was not eligible to receive a QO this winter, and no one would have made such an offer even if he was.
Ah correct, apologies, only the 3/40ish discussion with the Mets (though admittedly the actual offer isn’t certain).
That seems profoundly unlikely. The Mets did not want to give up much for a somewhat cheaper, younger, healthier and better Josh Harrison who came with 1 guarateed and two team option years.
A key portion of your “greedy player deserves what he gets” narrative is predicated on your misstatement that he turned down a QO. There was no QO, so the “hidden costs” were not apparent. I realize that you have an explanation that slams the players’ choices for every cheap contract, but this one is just objectively wrong.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory. Fact-checking only slows down the agenda, after all.
Actually, Marc Carig is reporting the Yankees were the only team to make Neil Walker a major league offer.
https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/973324052994682880
I agree that using total spend versus AAV is misleading; however, using AAV is also misleading. Had the crowd been forced to project Walker’s salary on a one year deal they would have likely predicted a number higher than $13M. The $3/39 projection has regression built in. There’s no perfect system.
Exactly! Lance Lynn reportedly turned down a 2 year, $20 million offer from the Twins before signing the 1 year, $12-14 million contract. So he got a higher AAV at the expense of lower overall contract value.
This is a good point, Chris. But in general I’d argue those AAV adjustments are typically going to be much smaller in magnitude than the impact of duration.
IE, Arrieta was projected at $110/5. He signed for $55/2 – plus some options that have real value. That’s a 25%+ increase in AAV; if included in the chart above with this methodology it would be shown as him landing at 50% of expectations.
This approach only tells you something meaningful if you believe that a player’s future years – the ones for which they were forecast to sign but instead will be FAs – have $0 in value. They certainly don’t.
While I don’t subscribe to some of the more strident conspiracy theories that have been advanced (and I do think Walker, like Moustakas, is a surprise/great bargain for the signing team), I do think Travis has a clear perception bias here and is manipulating the data to advance a narrative that he’s decided on ex-ante.
The day when Boras’s “initial asks” are the appropriate reference point for anything is a day we’ve become a bit unhinged.
“DBA’s Tuesday was a terrible disappointment for middle-class Fangraphs commenters when his initial ask of shower with Zoe Saldana was not met”.
Risk assessment seems to be factoring heavily for this FA class.
Higher One/Two year payouts are less risky on short deals.
Philly, for one, can afford big overpays in year one and two because of their young/cheap roster and market size. Their exposure if Arrieta implodes won’t cripple them as their window opens. They only pay (and pay big) if he delivers. They are forcing the p!ayer to bet on himself which is rare In FA contracts.
With all these 1yr deals, GMs are flooding next year’s Free Agent Market. You can almost hear Charlie O’ laughing from his grave.
He was nowhere near as crazy as he was made out to be. Top FA players always get their money. It’s the middle tiers where teams have run into trouble.
Jay Bruce’s agent really deserves some kind of award. Impressive work!
Smartest comment of the day.
Tanaka’s agent deserves an award too. Don’t step through the door, Masahiro, it’s cold outside.
or the Metsies completely misread the market
Isn’t the “left side the plate” where one would bat righty?
At 2B, for players with a minimum of 200 PA, Walker ranked 16th by WAR. Which isn’t bad, but at least 26 players had a WAR of 1.6 or higher. The key takeaway here is that 2B is really deep with 1.5-2 WAR players, so teams didn’t feel the need to spend on Walker when pretty much every contender (and most rebuilding teams as well) have an option.
This is a great example of situational value. The Yankees are likely going to be in a dogfight with the Red Sox this year, so wins matter. They had uncertainty at a key position. They have young talent that they wouldn’t mind spending a little Service Time down in the minors (developing, of course). And it’s insurance if “these youts” aren’t quite ready. And the price was right. Front Offices are looking at contextual value to their teams just as much as they are looking at intrinsic value.
Come to think of it, Walker may also be insurance policy in case Greg Bird busts.
Yep, for a team that suffered through several months of Chris Carter last year, there are worse things than a 1B platoon with Neil Walker making up the strong side.
One thing that doesn’t get much mention in the money conversation is that the teams have “quit” spending, revenue is way up, but the teams have not reduced any ticket prices. (other than the Orioles new Under 9 Free policy, which should really have been in place everywhere for decades now, IMHO) I don’t consider MLB games to be remotely affordable, even though TV money is pouring in, and teams have reduced their payrolls. Just checked the Twins prices, and it’s $40/seat for upper deck this season. Toss in the new 14% tax cut for corporations, and it feels like the fans who like to attend games are really taking it in the shorts.
Real life is more complicated than media spin:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-tax-reform-impacts-baseball/
As a lifelong Pirate fan and with my family being from WV and Western Pa. I will always have a soft spot for the “Hometown Kid”! And his fathers connection with the Pirates and Clemente who is one of my all time favorite Pirates and one of the great human beings also hits home. I hope Neil has a very good season with the Yankees and even as a long time Yankee hater I wouldn’t begrudge him getting a ring!