Yankees-Tigers, ALDS Game Three Chat
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Man I am pitching good!
Anyone can pitch good with an extra foot off the plate.
Your tears are delicious.
19 swinging strikes is pretty solid, no matter how much you want to chalk everything up to the strike zone.
The zone wasn’t great tonight, but he sure as hell wasn’t given a foot off the plate. (Posada also walked to start that rally on some extremely borderline pitches)
Where’s Kate Hudson when you need her
Look at the strikezone plot on brookesbaseballnet. That’s all I’m going to say.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=10&day=3&year=2011&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1%2F&prevGame=gid_2011_10_04_nyamlb_detmlb_1%2F&prevDate=103
Detroit had ten balls out of the zone called strikes. New York four. Detroit had four strikes in the zone called balls. New York eight. Detroit +10
Stop making sense, you are angering the Verlander groupies.
Is Austin Jackson the first person in Major League history to earn himself a 5 strike walk?
If CC wanted to get those left-side strikes, then he should have pitched in that area more.
Looking at the “extra” strike zone, NY got 3 strikes called out of 5, and DET got about 8 out of 13.
Furthermore, when you break it down by LHB and RHB, the strike zones become completely consistent and unbiased.
That’s not to say CC wasn’t at a disadvantage, because the ump wasn’t calling the outside strike against RHB. But I think there was an article about strike zones recently and it showed that umpires consistently call more outside strikes against LHB for some reason.
When one team is throwing out a LH lineup & the other is throwing out a RH lineup, that’s a problem.
Detroit had ten men on the field tonight, and that made the difference. CC got a couple of those calls (mostly against Avila, a LHB, as I remember), but Verlander was literally getting half a foot outside the zone on LHB, and the strikezone was at least half a foot smaller for RHB (that outside strike was not being called, and the inside corner was squeezed).
Of course, that won’t stop the narrative that Verlander was “dominant” (he was very good, but they still scored 4 runs off him with a biased zone) and CC “didn’t come through” (even though half his BB were due to the K-zone).
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=10&day=3&year=2011&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1%2F&prevDate=103
Oh, I totally agree with you. I’m just saying that the Yankee fan narrative of “The ump gave Verlander the better strike zone because he ‘earned’ it with his season” is (probably) not accurate.
My point here is that CC couldn’t have done anything to get those extra strikes, because you can only strike out Alex Avila so many times in a RH lineup.
The strike zone was consistent, but it was also consistent in a way that put the Yankees at a big disadvantage.
I’m so glad to see this data. I had the strong feeling throughout that Verlander was dealing with a big, high strike zone, and Sabathia was dealing with a small, narrow one, and couldn’t help but wonder if I was just biased due to my own rooting interests. Apparently I was not – at least not entirely. It was just an umpire being moved by the crowd and calling a very bad game.
This is where home field advantage comes from. Sports Illustrated researched the topic pretty exhaustively. If the series makes it to game No one should expect borderline strikes on the road, at least until MLB replaces umpires with machines.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WHptG35EWU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48rz8udZBmQ
Delmoy Young “hits to the score”.
That’s all.
Delmon.
Leyland is absolutely insane for having Avila sacrifice with Peralta on 2B and no one out in the 6th.
So much for him being such a good manager. He’s as much a dolt as all the other old schoolers. It’s unbelievable how hard it really is to de-program these guys from their long held beliefs.
Avila looks lost at the plate, but the Tigers have to keep trotting him out there with V-Mart’s injury. Leyland is just trying to get some kind of benefit from an Avila AB. He is very old-school, and I rarely defend him, and the statistics absolutely support Avila swinging, but sometimes statistics have to stand aside for common sense…in 11 PA’s, he’s struck out 5 times, flew out to shallow left once, grounded to SS once, grounded to the right side twice, and walked twice…so in a brutally-small sample size, he would have moved the runner to 3rd in 2 of 11 PA’s, he would have ended up with runners on 1st & 2nd in 2 of 11 PA’s, and he would have made an out without advancing the runner in 7 of 11 PA’s. I love Avila…probably my favourite Tiger, but he’s struggling.
Avila has never once taken a good swing against CC Sabathia. I’m as down on Leyland as anyone else about the constant bunting, but Avila hits a bit worse against lefties and a whole lot worse against CC. Small sample alert, etc, but he’s hitting .100/.100/.100 off of Sabathia in 11 PAs, and more than that, he has looked awful against him in every AB they’ve ever had. This is one where I’m fine with Jim going by his gut, because his gut is right: Avila can’t hit Sabathia.
that still ignores the point. If you swing away, there’s at least a chance at getting a hit and the possibility of advancing the runner on an out anyway.
Unless there’s a defensive misplay or Avila legs one out, he’s by and large giving himself up by sacrificing. And even if he K’s or makes an out that doesn’t advance the runner, Peralta is still in scoring position anyway.
Take a shot! Swing away! Simply b/c Avila is 1 for 10 lifetime against CC is a terrible reason not to swing away there with CC on the ropes. Giving the Yanks an easy out there just played right into their hands. What a gift! DOH!
There’s a greater likelihood that the runner won’t move anywhere, given Avila’s struggles in the series and v. Sabathia in his career, which would mean that Peralta cannot score on a sac fly, or a grounder to the middle infield, or a sharply hit single to one of the outfielders (see: Avila v. Granderson in game 1). The readers here realize that statistically speaking, bunts are stupid. Situationally speaking, they are warranted occasionally.
Tigers clearly received better ball-strike calls last night. I’d like to say something like “part of the game”, but I’m still upset about Jeter not being called out when he didn’t check his swing in game 1 with two strikes and two outs, leading to Cano’s grand slam!