Yasiel Puig or Jeff Francoeur?
Not long ago, we had a little company trip to New York, and while we were there we swung through the MLBAM offices. As part of that visit, we had a chance to go on the Statcast Podcast with Mike Petriello and Matt Meyers. At one point, in talking with them, I blurted out Jeff Francoeur as a player comp for Yasiel Puig. I hadn’t thought about it much, in the way I usually don’t think about the things I’m saying out loud too much, but I remember a weird and uncomfortable silence. It hasn’t been a great season for Puig, and we all know what Francoeur became. The link between the two isn’t something one should want to face.
But let’s face it, and let’s face it together! When I mentioned Francoeur, I didn’t really know the statistics. Now I’ve gone to the trouble of pulling up the statistics, so what follows is a quiz, I guess. You’ll be presented with 12 prompts, each of which cites one statistic. And you’re asked to pick which player is responsible for the statistic: this year’s Yasiel Puig, or Jeff Francoeur in his 20s. (Francoeur played in his 20s between 2005 and 2013.) There are no benefits to a right answer, and there are no consequences to a wrong answer. There are only numbers and answers. Truth is its own benefit, or consequence.
Godspeed and good luck and I’m sorry?
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
This wouldn’t be any fun without an answer key. So:
Answer Key
(1) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the 89 wRC+. Puig is sitting at 82.
(2) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the .297 BABIP. Puig is sitting at .294.
(3) The correct answer is Puig. Puig is responsible for the 4.15% unintentional walk rate. Francoeur sat at 4.11%.
(4) The correct answer is Puig. Puig is responsible for the 21.2% strikeout rate. Francoeur sat at 18.4%. That’s a difference of just about three percentage points. Of course, the league-average strikeout rate now is higher than it was when Francoeur was in his 20s, by just about three percentage points.
(5) The correct answer is Puig. Puig is responsible for the 10.0% HR/FB rate. Francoeur sat at 9.8%.
(6) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the 1.1 grounder/fly-ball ratio. Puig is sitting at 1.2.
(7) The correct answer is Puig. Puig has a difference between his hard-hit rate and his soft-hit rate of 12.6%. Francoeur sat at 10.8%.
(8) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the 56.9% swing rate. Puig is sitting at 55.5%.
(9) The correct answer is Puig. Puig has a difference between his in-zone swing rate and out-of-zone swing rate of 40.9%. Francoeur sat at 40.2%.
(10) The correct answer is Puig. Puig has put 32.1% of all strikes in play. Francoeur sat at 32.0%.
(11) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the 43.5% first-pitch-swing rate. Puig is sitting at 47.5%.
(12) The correct answer is Francoeur. Francoeur is responsible for the +4.7 UZR/150 in right field. Puig is sitting at +15.4.
That last one is the difference, basically. That last one is why Puig is on pace for a WAR/600 of 1.4, while Francoeur in his 20s averaged a WAR/600 mark of 0.7. Neither player, statistically, is much of a hitter, but while Puig gets a very slight edge on the bases, it’s the defense that sets him apart. It’s the defense that’s kept Puig playable, and the Dodgers have been thrilled with his work in the outfield. Of course, he’s probably not quite this good, if you want to talk about his true-talent ability, but anyway. And as long as we’re on the subject of parallels:
Puig’s throwing arm is absurdly strong. We can confirm that with some Statcast data. There was no such thing as Statcast data when Francoeur was a younger player, but we know his arm was fantastic. We know that just from observation, we know that from his league-leading UZR Arm rating, and we know that from the Fan Scouting Report. Through 2013, the fans gave two outfielders 90 ratings for arm strength: Francoeur and Bryce Harper. And Francoeur got the edge in perceived arm accuracy. Puig seems better than Francoeur at actually tracking balls down, but Francoeur’s arm was virtually peerless. Puig’s arm is presumably no better.
All of which is to say: It’s eerie how similar this year’s Puig is to a younger Jeff Francoeur. I’m not the first to want to draw the link, but this is the first time the numbers have really lined up. Puig arrived with considerable hype. Francoeur arrived with considerable hype. Both were effective rookies, but Francoeur started to struggle as a sophomore. Puig was excellent as a sophomore, and even last season, he was above-average. Now his numbers have dipped significantly, with his walks cut in half and his power mostly absent. It’s still in there, but it was in there for Francoeur, too. Good hitters are able to tap into it. That’s one of the differences between a good player and a skilled player.
Specifically because of Puig’s track record, I don’t think we should assume this is what he is, now. He deserves more time to come out of this, because he is terrifically gifted. That being said, Jeff Francoeur was also terrifically gifted, in many similar ways. He and Puig have employed a similar approach, and Francoeur’s productivity with it was unsustainable. I’m not sure what Puig’s future holds, but it’s pretty obvious one way he could go.
It is too soon to say Yasiel Puig is another Jeff Francoeur. It’s not too soon to say Yasiel Puig, this year, has looked like another Jeff Francoeur. And, you know, it’s 2016, and Francoeur is still playing. There are worse careers to have. But the Dodgers are largely depending on Puig making the necessary adjustments so he can leave this level behind. Everybody in baseball loves Francoeur, but they wouldn’t wish for that career path. Yasiel Puig needs to pick the path he wants to follow. And I’m going to hazard a guess he doesn’t get the Jeff Francoeur clubhouse bump.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Puig and Francouer have the same wOBA this year.
Wondering where Puig’s walks went. Unlike Francouer, Puig had in the past shown the ability to draw a free pass from time to time.
Yeah, I believe this is the most important difference, not the better defense. If you ignore a fluky small sample size season in San Diego, Francoeur’s career high BB% is 6.0. Puig’s been better than that every year of his career before this year. It’s hard to be Jeff Francoeur if you aren’t swinging out of your shoes at pitches that miss the strike zone by 8 inches.
A’s fans love Jeff Francoeur.
#bacontuesday
Francoeur played in his 20’s between 2005 and 2013…….2013?!?! Good gravy
Yes, but Jeff is a really nice guy. He threw me a ball once in spring training in Florida. Another spring, in Arizona with KC, he told me that, yes, he kept in contact with his high school coaches that I knew at Parkview HS.
shinfo?
Thank you for subscribing to Shinfo! Everything you thought you wanted to need to know about the shin! Did you know that the tibia, or shinbone, is also known as the shankbone and is the second largest bone in the body next to the femur?
Wow, Puig’s “missed the catch, threw him out” move is right out of the Yoenis Cespedes playbook. These dudes have crazy arms.
Multiple times this year I’ve noticed Puig purposely pick up a single is a lackadaisical way to tempt the runner to try to take second, so that he can make the throw and mow him down. I haven’t seen any runners take the bait yet.
Man, you have to squint really hard to see this comp. I guess if you boil it down to two players with an elite physical skill set, a ton of hype but a tendency to disappoint more than they succeed I could see it. Then again, if we all got a dollar every time an excessively hyped, physically gifted player disappointed, we could probably buy the Rays and move them to Montreal.
Puig has had a longer run of sustained success in his short career than Jeff Francoeur ever had. Even with Puig’s atrocious 2016 and injury plagued 2015, he has been an incredibly successful MLB player with a far better approach than Francoeur ever showed.
Whereas Puig’s struggles seem to be tied to a long list of injuries and a less than stellar work ethic, Francoeur never had an approach at the plate that indicated he’d ever be a consistently successful MLB player. Both players have the full package of physical tools, but Puig has (up until this year) shown a very patient approach at the plate that Francoeur never had, even in the minors. There aren’t a lot of players that find success with Francoeur’s approach at the major league level.
This isn’t to say Puig won’t go Full Francoeur on us, but let’s let him Francoeur for longer than 222 plate appearances before we go that far.
“This isn’t to say Puig won’t go Full Francoeur on us, but let’s let him Francoeur for longer than 222 plate appearances before we go that far.”
The article doesn’t go that far. Refer to the last paragraph.
The premise of the article is Jeff Francoeur as a player comp for Yasiel Puig. Absolutely nothing in the article supports that except that they are both extremely gifted and extremely hyped prospects. That is where all similarities between the two players ends. There is a reason the comp was met with a weird and uncomfortable silence, because it’s baseless and asinine.
Nothing in this article shows that Yasiel Puig was, is, or ever will be similar to Jeff Francoeur. The last paragraph is even more asinine than the premise. The suggestion that Yasiel Puig, 59 games and 222 PAs into his age 25 season, is all of a sudden at a fork in the road and has to decide if he wants to turn into Jeff Francoeur or if he wants to live up to his potential is absurd.
Yasiel Puig has been worth 11.5 WAR with a 135 WRC+ in what amounts to a little under two and a half seasons of games. I think Puig is doing just fine. As bad as Puig’s 2016 has been, it wouldn’t crack the top 4 worst Jeff Francoeur age 20-29 seasons. Even if Puig just spectacularly flamed out, he could still put up -1 WAR every year until he turned 30 and have a higher career WAR than Jeff Francoeur.
Jeff Francoeur 20-29 vs (Insert player here) might be an interesting hypothetical game to play, but the rest is ridiculous.
From the final paragraph:
It’s not too soon to say Yasiel Puig, this year, has looked like another Jeff Francoeur.
Puig is hitting .249/.290/.376 with a 4.1% BB-rate and 21.2% K-rate.
Jeff Francouer this year: .265/.297/.383, 4.7% BB, 24.4% K
Jeff Francouer career: .262/.304/.417, 4.9% BB, 18.8%K
It’s not a stretch to say that Puig is playing like Jeff Francouer and it’s something that’s worth noting, even if it might just be a down season for Puig.
Except it IS too soon. It is one thing to just have a fun hypothetical exercise involving Jeff Francoeur’s 20s and random small sample stats of talented players, it is quite another to use those 59 games worth of numbers to defend a lazy player comp and to conclude that Yasiel Puig is at a crossroads having to choose between going down the path of Jeff Francoeur’s career or leaving this level behind.
Really good players can put up vaguely Francoeurian numbers for 59 games. It happens. Baseball is hard as hell. To use 59 games of vaguely Francoeurian numbers to surmise that Yasiel Puig is at a crossroads between the Francoeur path or something better is ridiculous.
Yasiel Puig has been one of the top 50 most valuable position players in the majors since the year he made his debut and his career WRC+ is higher than any single season WRC+ Frenchy ever managed. I think Puig is going to be just fine, even without the “Jeff Francoeur clubhouse bump.”
Did Francouer get hurt between 2007-2008? He must have, how else can you explain such a horrible downturn in defense over the course of one season?
I just, got. funded $6864 working off my notebook this-month,,and if you think that’s cool, my ex-wife has twin toddlers and made over 7985bucks her first month. It feels so good making so much money when other peoplehave to work for so much less …
———————-> incomenews11.cf
Well if you look at his batted ball profile you can clearly see it trends toward making over 7985bucks in your first month.
Jeff Francouer makes twenty times that each month.
Obviously, Jeff Francoeur was a tremendous hacker with almost zero plate discipline. However, as an Atlantan who saw his first few seasons, comparing him to Puig is an insult. He had 2 100+ RBI seasons, and 5 70+ runs scored seasons. Also, he hit 29 home runs one season, and stole 22 bases in another. Puig has never reached 70 RBI in a year and only once has topped 70 runs scored. His career high is 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases in a year. Puig continuously makes bone headed plays both in the field and on the basepaths. One was a pleasure to be around in the clubhouse while the other is secretly being shopped by the Dodgers. If that wasn’t the case he wouldn’t be losing playing time to Trayce Thompson, and landing on the DL with phantom injuries. At what point are people going to start realizing that the window on this clown is quickly closing. He’s already become completely useless in virtually all fantasy formats, and only occupies roster spots bc of name recognition. While the advanced metrics may point to similar comps, the overall body of work, career longevity and achievements pale in comparison. Sadly, Puig has accomplished absolutely nothing in his career. He is just another overhyped, underperforming physical specimen.
I’m probably the biggest Jeff Francoeur fan you’ll find, but I don’t think even I could agree with your argument. It’s pretty clear to me that Puig’s accomplished more at this point in his career than Jeff Francoeur has at least in terms of doing things we know how to quantify that help a team win baseball games.
However, Frenchy gets the nod in several other very important categories:
1) Winningest Smile
2) Symmetry
3) Harmless Hijinks
4) Vowels
5) Nickname
I must disagree with 4);
Jeff Francouer = E, A, O, U, E
for a vowel value of 5.
Yasiel Puig = A I E U I
also for a vowel value of 5.
However, controlling for the variability of Y, we get another 0.5 for a total Puig VV of 5.5.
Additionally, JEFF FRANCOUER = 13 letters total for a vowel percentage of 38.5%
YASIEL PUIG = 10 letters for a vowel percentage of 55%
This is exactly what I’m talking about. You nerds don’t know how to look past the numbers and just enjoy the BEAUTY of the vowels. Applying the ol’ eye test clearly shows that the way Francouer uses the vowels is much more polished and fluid. You may be so smart with your dumb spreadsheets and bitcoins but there’s no substitute for actually having lived with a name like Francouer. Fundamentals! Technique! Chemistry! Vowels!
Francouer is also a lot more economical with his syllables. Smooth vowel mechanics on that guy.
Jeff Francouer has done more on the mound than Yasiel Puig ever will.
you nailed it yaboynate. As a long time Braves fan I can attest to the fact that there was still a lot of support for frenchy long after the shine of his rookie season wore off and his skill set degraded to replacement level due to the fact that he was just so damn charismatic and charming.
Hell, it’s still a problem now There’s still a very vocal section of the fanbase that believes he is The Answer in the outfield, and always was, and we should have never let him go.
As evidence by the fact that I’ve essentially vomited text all over the comment section of Mr. Sullivan’s piece, I love talking about Jeff Francoeur. To me, he brings up some good questions as to what it is exactly that brings me enjoyment from watching baseball. Frenchy has gravitated more toward the fan-favorite/Munenori Kawasaki side of the enjoyment spectrum for myself and I suspect most of his other vocal supporters. I would be cautious that you’re understanding what this “vocal section of the fanbase” is actually saying. He may be The Answer in the outfield, but the question is closer to “What would make watching the Braves play baseball fun again?” than “Who is the most skilled individual we can play in that position?”
In that case, you’re not one of those to whom I refer. I’m speaking of those very vocal, angry fans who are so active in the AJC comments, the Scout Braves forum, and on Twitter who rant about stupid statheads convincing the team to rid itself of their best player, and find outrageous small sample size counting stats to “prove” he’s better than Jason Heyward or Mike Trout or any other outfielder anyone ever happens to mention in their eyesight.
These same fans also seem to be madly in love with Jose Costanza and Jordan Schafer, and will regularly use Bill Shanks columns or quotes as part of their argument. I see nothing here to cause me to insult you by including you in their number.
Who cares how useful or not he is in fantasy?